Preseason Rankings
Tennessee
Southeastern
2024-25
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.3#14
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.7#84
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#34
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#7
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.8% 1.8% 0.4%
#1 Seed 8.1% 8.2% 1.2%
Top 2 Seed 17.0% 17.3% 3.6%
Top 4 Seed 34.8% 35.3% 12.1%
Top 6 Seed 50.1% 50.7% 24.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 75.4% 76.1% 46.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 72.9% 73.6% 44.1%
Average Seed 5.2 5.2 6.5
.500 or above 89.3% 89.8% 66.9%
.500 or above in Conference 72.9% 73.4% 51.4%
Conference Champion 12.7% 12.9% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 2.4% 5.9%
First Four3.6% 3.5% 5.1%
First Round73.7% 74.4% 43.8%
Second Round55.1% 55.7% 28.3%
Sweet Sixteen31.3% 31.7% 12.9%
Elite Eight16.3% 16.5% 6.1%
Final Four8.2% 8.3% 2.9%
Championship Game4.0% 4.0% 0.9%
National Champion1.9% 1.9% 0.5%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 97.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 8
Quad 25 - 212 - 10
Quad 34 - 115 - 10
Quad 46 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 246   Gardner-Webb W 83-62 98%    
  Nov 09, 2024 50   @ Louisville W 76-74 56%    
  Nov 13, 2024 190   Montana W 81-63 95%    
  Nov 17, 2024 281   Austin Peay W 81-58 98%    
  Nov 21, 2024 57   Virginia W 64-59 67%    
  Nov 27, 2024 323   Tennessee Martin W 91-64 99%    
  Dec 03, 2024 56   Syracuse W 80-72 76%    
  Dec 10, 2024 36   Miami (FL) W 76-73 60%    
  Dec 14, 2024 22   @ Illinois L 75-76 45%    
  Dec 17, 2024 238   Western Carolina W 81-60 96%    
  Dec 23, 2024 197   Middle Tennessee W 77-58 95%    
  Dec 31, 2024 251   Norfolk St. W 81-59 97%    
  Jan 04, 2025 15   Arkansas W 78-74 62%    
  Jan 07, 2025 25   @ Florida L 78-79 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 17   @ Texas L 71-73 44%    
  Jan 15, 2025 61   Georgia W 77-68 76%    
  Jan 18, 2025 89   @ Vanderbilt W 73-69 64%    
  Jan 21, 2025 33   Mississippi St. W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 25, 2025 10   @ Auburn L 72-77 34%    
  Jan 28, 2025 16   Kentucky W 82-78 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 25   Florida W 81-76 67%    
  Feb 05, 2025 58   Missouri W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 55   @ Oklahoma W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 11, 2025 16   @ Kentucky L 79-81 42%    
  Feb 15, 2025 89   Vanderbilt W 76-66 80%    
  Feb 22, 2025 19   @ Texas A&M L 70-72 46%    
  Feb 25, 2025 54   @ LSU W 75-73 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 5   Alabama L 80-81 47%    
  Mar 05, 2025 40   @ Mississippi W 74-73 51%    
  Mar 08, 2025 64   South Carolina W 71-62 76%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 3.9 3.1 1.5 0.4 12.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 3.8 3.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 11.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.9 3.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 4.3 1.5 0.1 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 2.2 0.2 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 3.5 1.0 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.0 2.1 0.1 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 2.3 1.0 0.0 4.2 11th
12th 0.4 1.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 3.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.4 4.8 6.7 8.5 10.0 11.1 11.5 11.3 10.0 7.8 5.8 3.5 1.6 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 99.0% 1.5    1.4 0.1
16-2 89.1% 3.1    2.5 0.6 0.0
15-3 67.1% 3.9    2.1 1.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 32.7% 2.6    0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.3% 1.0    0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.7% 12.7 7.4 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 52.2% 47.8% 1.1 0.4 0.1 100.0%
17-1 1.6% 100.0% 37.4% 62.6% 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.5% 100.0% 35.9% 64.1% 1.5 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.8% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 1.9 2.3 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.8% 100.0% 20.7% 79.3% 2.7 1.4 2.5 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.0% 99.9% 15.0% 85.0% 3.6 0.6 1.7 2.8 2.4 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 11.3% 99.6% 10.0% 89.7% 4.7 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.5 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-7 11.5% 97.6% 5.4% 92.2% 6.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 97.5%
10-8 11.1% 91.6% 3.1% 88.5% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.9 91.3%
9-9 10.0% 78.4% 1.9% 76.5% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.2 78.0%
8-10 8.5% 49.1% 1.1% 48.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.3 48.5%
7-11 6.7% 21.4% 0.4% 21.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.2 21.1%
6-12 4.8% 5.9% 0.2% 5.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.5 5.7%
5-13 3.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.8%
4-14 2.0% 2.0
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 75.4% 9.2% 66.2% 5.2 8.1 9.0 9.2 8.6 8.0 7.2 6.6 5.7 4.7 4.0 3.6 0.7 0.0 24.6 72.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 89.7 10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 84.6 15.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 90.9 9.1