Butler
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +7.6 75
Expected Predictive Rating +8.0 71
Pace 70.5 129
Improvement -7.5 360

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B #62 B- B+ B B B
Defense C+ #108 C+ B C A C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 35 59% 133 +4.1 51
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 302 40% 112 -2.0 281
Three Pointers 41% 183 35% 116 +0.9 147
1st FG Attempt 1.08 93 +3.0 93
Second Chance 36.3% 36 1.14 53 0.41 27
Turnovers 15.0% 65
Freethrows 0.37 25 71% 228 0.26 48
Total Offense +5.4 62

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 134 58% 170 -0.8 202
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 103 34% 60 +0.0 195
Three Pointers 37% 292 34% 164 +2.2 94
1st FG Attempt 0.99 131 +1.3 132
Second Chance 28.6% 99 0.93 49 0.27 61
Turnovers 17.3% 165
Freethrows 0.22 10 71% 108 0.15 10
Total Defense +2.1 108

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.2 40 -0.1 141
Shot Type Accuracy +1.7 113 -1.2 131
Possession Length 16.0 61 18.2 310
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 78 0.16 130
Improvement -2.8 #317 -4.7 #354

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1% 2% 0%
Average Seed 11.1 10.9 11.9
.500 or above 60% 78% 41%
.500 or above in Conference 1% 2% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 26% 13% 38%
First Four1% 1% 0%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Seton Hall (Home) - 50.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 8
Quad 23 - 76 - 14
Quad 36 - 211 - 16
Quad 45 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 340 Southern Indiana W 88 - 58 97% +18  97% 1 - 0 A- +15 B- +4 B- B- D A- +10 B A- D+
 Sat, Nov 8 332 IU Indianapolis W 112 - 80 97% +14  84% 2 - 0 A +18 C+ +3 D A+ C+ A- +8 B+ A+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 353 Chicago St. W 98 - 66 98% +24  98% 3 - 0 A- +15 A- +10 B- A+ C B- +4 F+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 37 @SMU L 85 - 87 18% +0  57% 3 - 1 A- +15 A- +9 A+ B- F B +6 C- B A+
 Fri, Nov 21 90 South Carolina W 79 - 72 58% +7  97% 4 - 1 B+ +12 B+ +8 C- A+ C+ B +5 A B+ F+
 Sun, Nov 23 23 Virginia W 80 - 73 20% +5  97% 5 - 1 A+ +23 A +14 A+ C D+ A- +10 A+ B+ D
 Fri, Nov 28 150 Wright St. W 94 - 69 83% +5  48% 6 - 1 A +23 A- +9 A A+ B+ A +11 B A C+
 Tue, Dec 2 231 Eastern Michigan W 84 - 68 90% +7  85% 7 - 1 B +9 A +12 A- A+ C C- -2 C+ C C+
 Sat, Dec 6 58 Boise St. L 68 - 77 55% -2  30% 7 - 2 C- -3 D+ -3 D A A C -0 A B D-
 Sat, Dec 13 60 Providence W 113 - 110 2OT 56% -0  36% 8 - 2 1 - 0 B +9 A+ +15 B A A+ D -6 C B+ F+
 Tue, Dec 16 7 @Connecticut L 60 - 79 7% -10  20% 8 - 3 1 - 1 B- +5 D+ -3 F B A+ A- +8 B F A
 Sat, Dec 20 64 Northwestern W 61 - 58 47% +4  85% 9 - 3 B+ +11 F+ -9 D- B- F+ A+ +20 A+ A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 22 315 NJIT W 101 - 52 96% +29  98% 10 - 3 A+ +37 A+ +18 A+ A+ B+ A+ +17 B- A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 61 @Creighton L 85 - 89 34% -7  1% 10 - 4 1 - 2 B- +8 A- +10 C B+ B C- -2 C- F B
 Sat, Jan 3 32 Villanova L 67 - 85 35% -3  47% 10 - 5 1 - 3 D+ -7 D -4 F A+ C+ C- -2 D A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 6 20 St. John's L 70 - 84 25% -4  30% 10 - 6 1 - 4 C +1 C +0 A+ F+ F C+ +0 C- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 83 @Xavier L 75 - 89 42% -11  0% 10 - 7 1 - 5 C- -4 C +2 D- A+ C D+ -5 C F C
 Sat, Jan 17 53 @Seton Hall W 77 - 66 29% +6  72% 11 - 7 2 - 5 A+ +24 A+ +16 B+ F A+ A- +9 A+ C+ A-
 Tue, Jan 20 98 DePaul W 87 - 80 70% +2  47% 12 - 7 3 - 5 B +9 A +13 A+ A+ B+ C- -3 B+ D- C-
 Fri, Jan 23 85 Marquette W 87 - 76 65% +5  93% 13 - 7 4 - 5 A- +15 A +14 C+ A+ A C+ +1 C- F A
 Wed, Jan 28 20 @St. John's L 70 - 92 11% -13  0% 13 - 8 4 - 6 C -1 A +13 B- C+ A+ F -17 F D F
 Sat, Jan 31 76 Georgetown L 64 - 77 62% -5  11% 13 - 9 4 - 7 D -8 D+ -4 D D A+ D -6 F A+ B-
 Wed, Feb 4 60 @Providence L 87 - 97 2OT 33% +0  51% 13 - 10 4 - 8 C+ +2 C+ +3 C+ C+ B C+ +0 C+ A D
 Sat, Feb 7 85 @Marquette L 55 - 70 42% -8  13% 13 - 11 4 - 9 D+ -5 F -12 D F D- B+ +6 F A+ B+
 Wed, Feb 11 7 Connecticut L 70 - 80 16% -3  24% 13 - 12 4 - 10 B- +8 A+ +15 A+ B- A+ D- -8 C F D-
 Sun, Feb 15 53 Seton Hall W 71 - 70 51%
 Wed, Feb 18 76 @Georgetown L 74 - 77 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 83 Xavier W 82 - 78 65%
 Wed, Feb 25 32 @Villanova L 68 - 78 18%
 Wed, Mar 4 61 Creighton W 79 - 77 56%
 Sat, Mar 7 98 @DePaul L 73 - 74 48%
Totals 16 - 15 7 - 13 +8 B +5 B- B+ B C+ +2 C+ B C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B C+ C+ C+ C+ 44% 15% 41% B B- B+ B B+ B B+ C- B C+ C B C C+ 40% 23% 37% C+ C+ B- B B C A C+ A
1.16 59% 40% 35% +2 +1 1.08 36% 1.1 .41 15% .37 71% .26 1.06 58% 34% 34% -1 0 0.99 29% 0.9 .27 17% .22 71% .26
Nov
5		 Southern Indiana B- D- D+ A+ C+ 64% 11% 25% A B- A- D+ B- D A+ D- A+ A- A+ A+ C+ B+ 33% 22% 45% C B A- A A- D+ B- D- C
1.17 50% 33% 54% +2 +3 1.11 40% 0.9 .36 17% .47 69% .32 0.77 37% 15% 31% -14 -1 0.72 20% 0.6 .12 16% .27 71% .19
Nov
8		 IU Indianapolis C+ A C F D 52% 13% 35% C+ D A+ B- A+ C+ A+ F A+ A- C+ A+ A+ A 48% 23% 29% D- B+ C A+ A+ B D+ D D+
1.24 74% 38% 19% 0 +2 1.07 56% 1.3 .73 19% .59 67% .40 0.89 58% 25% 25% -7 0 0.88 28% 0.6 .16 19% .20 73% .15
Nov
11		 Chicago St. A- F F A+ B- 26% 2% 72% C+ B- C+ A+ A+ C A+ F+ A+ B- D C F F 42% 40% 19% C F+ A+ F C A+ B A+ A-
1.34 50% 0% 44% +8 +1 1.21 38% 1.9 .72 19% .51 70% .35 0.90 59% 38% 40% +2 -2 1.02 19% 1.3 .26 22% .23 62% .14
Nov
15		 SMU A- B+ F A+ A+ 35% 17% 48% B A+ A+ F+ B- F A+ F A- B D F+ B C+ 63% 15% 22% F C- D- A+ B A+ B B- B
1.14 67% 22% 48% +10 0 1.23 43% 0.8 .32 23% .40 61% .24 1.17 68% 50% 33% +8 +3 1.22 42% 0.8 .32 21% .26 73% .19
Nov
21		 South Carolina B+ C+ D- D+ C 43% 35% 22% D C- A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F A+ B C+ A+ A A+ 40% 18% 42% C- A A D+ B+ F+ D+ A+ B-
1.15 60% 31% 30% -3 -1 0.93 43% 1.5 .66 15% .58 59% .34 1.05 59% 20% 26% -8 0 0.87 21% 1.1 .24 10% .36 68% .24
Nov
23		 Virginia A C+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 22% 30% A- A+ A+ F C D+ A+ D+ A+ A- A- A A+ A+ 47% 11% 42% D A+ B- B+ B+ D B+ A+ A+
1.16 55% 60% 43% +7 +1 1.17 40% 0.6 .23 19% .52 69% .36 1.06 50% 33% 26% -9 +2 0.87 38% 1.0 .38 13% .25 47% .12
Nov
28		 Wright St. A- A- A+ D- A- 52% 17% 31% B+ A B A+ A+ B+ A F C+ A B C+ B+ A- 54% 18% 28% F+ B A- B+ A C+ A+ A- A+
1.25 68% 67% 29% +8 +1 1.20 35% 1.5 .52 15% .40 58% .23 0.92 52% 36% 29% -6 +1 0.93 25% 1.0 .25 17% .05 67% .03
Dec
2		 Eastern Michigan A F A A+ A- 51% 17% 32% B A- A A+ A+ C B- B+ B+ C- A A+ F B+ 59% 16% 25% F C+ C+ D+ C C+ C+ F D
1.27 42% 50% 60% +6 +1 1.17 39% 1.6 .64 17% .34 79% .27 1.03 47% 0% 54% -5 +2 0.96 26% 1.0 .26 18% .24 92% .22
Dec
6		 Boise St. D+ C- C F F+ 52% 19% 29% A D C+ A+ A A C F D+ C C+ A+ A+ A+ 54% 23% 23% C+ A F A+ B D- F+ D F
1.01 56% 40% 20% -7 +1 0.90 24% 1.6 .37 12% .29 59% .17 1.15 57% 25% 25% -7 +1 0.90 42% 0.8 .32 12% .44 81% .35
Dec
13		 Providence A+ A F C B- 48% 15% 37% A B A+ C A A+ A+ C- A+ D B- D F+ C 39% 16% 46% C+ C D+ A+ B+ F+ A+ C A+
1.32 67% 22% 35% +2 +2 1.10 43% 1.0 .43 8% .48 71% .34 1.28 59% 45% 41% +6 +1 1.16 37% 0.9 .33 10% .23 78% .18
Dec
16		 Connecticut D+ F F F F 51% 6% 43% A+ F C+ A- B A+ A- A A A- D A+ D+ B+ 49% 20% 31% C B F D+ F A A- A+ A
0.86 35% 0% 23% -21 +3 0.65 27% 1.1 .30 14% .40 79% .32 1.13 68% 20% 38% +3 +1 1.10 47% 1.2 .56 21% .24 62% .15
Dec
20		 Northwestern F+ A- F F D- 29% 20% 51% C D- C+ B- B- F+ D+ C+ C- A+ B- B+ A+ A+ 33% 33% 33% A A+ A- A+ A+ B- A+ F A+
0.91 67% 20% 23% -9 -1 0.82 33% 1.0 .33 21% .26 71% .19 0.87 56% 33% 22% -8 -2 0.81 24% 0.8 .19 13% .16 89% .14
Dec
22		 NJIT A+ A+ B+ A- A+ 42% 13% 44% B- A+ B- A+ A+ B+ A+ B A+ A+ C A+ B+ B 45% 21% 34% F+ B- A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.39 73% 43% 39% +10 +1 1.25 37% 1.5 .53 11% .49 75% .37 0.72 54% 18% 28% -9 0 0.85 8% 0.7 .05 19% .19 45% .09
Dec
30		 Creighton A- C- F C+ C- 45% 17% 38% A- C A+ F+ B+ B A A+ A+ C- C+ C D C 38% 9% 53% F+ C- D F F B C+ F D
1.17 56% 20% 35% -4 +1 0.97 46% 0.9 .39 14% .30 79% .24 1.23 62% 40% 38% +5 +1 1.15 32% 1.3 .42 17% .25 93% .23
Jan
3		 Villanova D D+ F+ F F 37% 19% 44% B F B+ A+ A+ C+ C+ A+ A C- F C D+ D- 40% 25% 36% B D A+ C A+ C+ D+ C+ D+
0.94 53% 30% 17% -14 0 0.73 36% 1.5 .56 20% .25 93% .23 1.20 81% 38% 37% +11 0 1.23 23% 1.0 .23 15% .33 70% .23
Jan
6		 St. John's C A+ D A+ A+ 38% 27% 36% D+ A+ D- F F+ F A- A+ A+ C+ D C- F+ D- 37% 33% 30% A+ C- A+ F A+ F A+ C A+
0.98 71% 33% 44% +9 -1 1.18 22% 0.7 .15 29% .36 83% .30 1.18 64% 40% 39% +5 -2 1.08 20% 1.4 .29 7% .23 73% .17
Jan
14		 Xavier C D- A+ F F+ 39% 16% 45% B D- C- A+ A+ C B- A+ A- D+ F A- B+ C+ 41% 21% 38% D- C F C F C A- F B-
1.03 50% 50% 26% -7 +1 0.90 26% 1.7 .43 18% .32 79% .25 1.22 72% 31% 30% +2 0 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 12% .19 83% .16
Jan
17		 Seton Hall A+ A+ A+ F B+ 42% 16% 42% B- B+ F F F A+ A+ A+ A+ A- C- A+ A+ A+ 34% 32% 34% A+ A+ F A+ C+ A- F B+ F
1.15 67% 57% 22% -1 +1 1.02 17% 0.6 .10 12% .69 80% .56 0.98 59% 25% 18% -12 -2 0.74 49% 0.7 .35 19% .46 68% .31
Jan
20		 DePaul A A B+ A+ A+ 41% 25% 34% C+ A+ C+ A+ A+ B+ A+ D+ A+ C- A+ F B B+ 25% 16% 59% C B+ C- F+ D- C- D+ F F
1.21 67% 45% 47% +12 0 1.25 31% 1.4 .42 17% .52 68% .35 1.11 38% 63% 30% -5 0 0.92 32% 1.4 .44 17% .35 86% .30
Jan
23		 Marquette A C+ A+ F C 53% 13% 34% A C+ A- A+ A+ A A+ C A+ C+ F F A+ D+ 42% 13% 44% B+ C- F+ D F A A- B A-
1.24 60% 50% 25% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.3 .52 16% .52 74% .39 1.08 77% 71% 17% +2 +1 1.08 38% 1.1 .41 20% .25 64% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 St. John's A F A+ A C 54% 13% 33% A B- B- C C+ A+ A+ F A F F F+ F F 40% 21% 38% A- F D C- D F A+ D- A+
1.12 40% 50% 40% -5 +2 0.96 32% 0.9 .29 10% .53 50% .27 1.47 71% 45% 45% +13 0 1.29 42% 1.2 .52 8% .24 79% .19
Jan
31		 Georgetown D+ F F B D- 43% 24% 33% B D A- F D A+ B- A+ A D F+ F F F 31% 29% 40% A- F A+ D- A+ B- A D+ A-
0.99 43% 25% 38% -8 0 0.86 37% 0.6 .23 11% .31 89% .28 1.19 67% 50% 53% +17 -2 1.33 18% 1.3 .23 15% .26 79% .20
Feb
4		 Providence C+ D- A+ C- C 47% 21% 32% B C+ C B C+ B A+ D A+ C+ F+ D C C 33% 20% 47% A- C+ D- A+ A D F A+ F
1.10 48% 58% 33% -1 +1 1.02 29% 1.1 .31 13% .49 68% .33 1.23 72% 45% 35% +7 0 1.15 40% 0.8 .30 13% .57 67% .38
Feb
7		 Marquette F F+ F B- D- 47% 16% 38% B D A- F F D- B- F D+ B+ A F F F 37% 4% 59% C+ F A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A A+
0.82 48% 14% 35% -8 +1 0.89 40% 0.4 .14 24% .29 60% .18 1.05 47% 50% 47% +8 +2 1.22 13% 0.5 .07 18% .18 60% .11
Feb
11		 Connecticut A+ C+ B- A+ A+ 52% 11% 37% A+ A+ C+ B- B- A+ D+ B C- D- A+ F F D 20% 24% 56% A+ C D+ F F D- A+ F+ A+
1.16 54% 40% 41% +2 +2 1.11 28% 1.0 .28 13% .31 75% .23 1.32 40% 67% 43% +11 -2 1.20 40% 1.3 .53 13% .17 78% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 0.8 3.1 4th
5th 0.0 3.1 3.7 0.2 7.0 5th
6th 2.0 11.3 1.1 0.0 14.3 6th
7th 0.2 11.6 4.9 0.1 16.8 7th
8th 0.0 4.4 12.8 0.3 17.4 8th
9th 0.7 12.7 3.6 0.0 17.0 9th
10th 0.3 6.2 8.3 0.1 14.9 10th
11th 2.6 6.1 0.9 9.5 11th
Total 2.9 13.0 26.5 30.0 19.8 7.0 0.9 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.9% 34.1% 1.1% 33.0% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 33.3%
9-11 7.0% 9.5% 1.9% 7.6% 10.9 0.1 0.6 0.0 6.3 7.8%
8-12 19.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 19.7 0.6%
7-13 30.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 29.9 0.0%
6-14 26.5% 0.3% 0.3% 11.9 0.0 0.1 26.4
5-15 13.0% 0.4% 0.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 12.9
4-16 2.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 2.8
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 11.1 98.5 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 40.4% 10.7 12.8 27.7
Lose Out 1.9%