Butler
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#84
Expected Predictive Rating+4.5#103
Pace68.8#175
Improvement-2.7#303

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#60
First Shot+3.1#91
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#92
Layup/Dunks-4.2#323
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#151
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#83
Freethrows+4.0#12
Improvement-0.7#222

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#111
First Shot+1.4#127
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#123
Layups/Dunks-0.3#179
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#49
Freethrows+1.7#67
Improvement-2.0#289
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 6.4% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.4% 5.0% 0.8%
Average Seed 10.9 10.4 11.3
.500 or above 13.5% 30.3% 10.8%
.500 or above in Conference 4.4% 13.0% 3.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.5% 4.2% 16.2%
First Four0.8% 2.1% 0.6%
First Round1.7% 5.3% 1.2%
Second Round0.5% 1.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Connecticut (Away) - 13.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 53 - 10
Quad 23 - 66 - 16
Quad 33 - 29 - 18
Quad 44 - 114 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 244   Missouri St. W 72-65 90%     1 - 0 -0.3 -1.3 +1.2
  Nov 08, 2024 298   Austin Peay L 66-68 94%     1 - 1 -12.4 -5.3 -7.3
  Nov 11, 2024 304   Western Michigan W 85-65 94%     2 - 1 +9.3 +5.6 +3.7
  Nov 15, 2024 37   SMU W 81-70 39%     3 - 1 +20.5 +11.6 +9.0
  Nov 22, 2024 206   Merrimack W 78-39 86%     4 - 1 +34.1 +17.2 +22.6
  Nov 28, 2024 55   Northwestern W 71-69 37%     5 - 1 +12.1 +8.5 +3.7
  Nov 29, 2024 23   Mississippi St. W 87-77 21%     6 - 1 +25.1 +17.4 +7.4
  Dec 03, 2024 344   Eastern Illinois W 73-58 97%     7 - 1 +0.5 -1.7 +2.7
  Dec 07, 2024 3   @ Houston L 51-79 6%     7 - 2 -3.7 -1.1 -6.7
  Dec 10, 2024 112   North Dakota St. L 68-71 73%     7 - 3 -2.6 +1.0 -4.1
  Dec 14, 2024 18   Wisconsin L 74-83 20%     7 - 4 +6.8 +9.2 -2.7
  Dec 18, 2024 20   @ Marquette L 70-80 14%     7 - 5 0 - 1 +8.3 +13.8 -6.5
  Dec 21, 2024 24   Connecticut L 74-78 30%     7 - 6 0 - 2 +8.3 +4.5 +3.7
  Jan 01, 2025 42   Villanova L 65-73 42%     7 - 7 0 - 3 +0.9 +0.6 -0.7
  Jan 04, 2025 16   @ St. John's L 62-70 12%     7 - 8 0 - 4 +11.2 -5.6 +17.7
  Jan 08, 2025 81   @ Providence L 65-84 38%     7 - 9 0 - 5 -9.1 -0.5 -9.4
  Jan 11, 2025 33   Creighton L 76-80 37%     7 - 10 0 - 6 +6.2 +8.8 -2.6
  Jan 15, 2025 132   Seton Hall W 82-77 77%     8 - 10 1 - 6 +4.1 +17.5 -12.9
  Jan 21, 2025 24   @ Connecticut L 69-80 14%    
  Jan 25, 2025 106   DePaul W 78-72 72%    
  Jan 28, 2025 20   Marquette L 72-78 30%    
  Jan 31, 2025 72   @ Georgetown L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 05, 2025 132   @ Seton Hall W 70-68 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 81   Providence W 73-71 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 72   Georgetown W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 18, 2025 41   @ Xavier L 70-78 23%    
  Feb 22, 2025 106   @ DePaul W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 26, 2025 16   St. John's L 70-77 26%    
  Mar 01, 2025 42   @ Villanova L 69-77 24%    
  Mar 05, 2025 41   Xavier L 73-75 43%    
  Mar 08, 2025 33   @ Creighton L 70-79 20%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.9 1.5 0.3 4.4 6th
7th 0.3 2.4 5.9 4.1 0.9 0.1 13.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 6.5 9.4 5.2 1.0 0.0 23.6 8th
9th 0.2 3.4 10.9 12.5 4.9 0.8 0.0 32.6 9th
10th 0.4 2.8 6.5 5.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 16.9 10th
11th 0.3 1.7 2.8 1.9 0.4 7.0 11th
Total 0.3 2.1 5.8 11.8 18.3 20.7 16.9 12.6 7.1 3.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.2% 81.8% 4.5% 77.3% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 81.0%
11-9 1.2% 43.7% 3.4% 40.3% 10.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 41.7%
10-10 3.0% 19.0% 3.0% 16.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.4 16.5%
9-11 7.1% 4.1% 1.1% 2.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 6.9 3.0%
8-12 12.6% 1.7% 1.5% 0.2% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.4 0.2%
7-13 16.9% 0.9% 0.9% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 16.7
6-14 20.7% 0.5% 0.5% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.6
5-15 18.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.1 18.2
4-16 11.8% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 11.8
3-17 5.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.8
2-18 2.1% 2.1
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20
Total 100% 2.1% 0.8% 1.4% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 97.9 1.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%