Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -4.6 242
Expected Predictive Rating -1.6 193
Pace 70.0 141
Improvement +1.3 132

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #222 C D- B F+ C+
Defense C- #257 D- D B+ B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 233 58% 180 -1.2 226
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 278 36% 251 -2.1 283
Three Pointers 47% 50 35% 142 +3.9 59
1st FG Attempt 1.03 153 +0.6 153
Second Chance 21.3% 356 1.03 172 0.22 348
Turnovers 15.0% 66
Freethrows 0.23 353 71% 212 0.17 349
Total Offense -1.9 222

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 181 63% 297 -2.0 253
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 347 34% 59 +2.9 6
Three Pointers 47% 32 38% 333 -5.8 353
1st FG Attempt 1.11 324 -4.8 324
Second Chance 35.1% 331 1.06 238 0.37 313
Turnovers 20.2% 31
Freethrows 0.26 51 76% 336 0.20 85
Total Defense -2.6 257

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.4 131 +0.8 316
Shot Type Accuracy +0.2 170 +3.8 317
Possession Length 17.6 215 17.0 140
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 134 0.14 93
Improvement -0.7 #228 +2.0 #80

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 7% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 54% 74% 41%
.500 or above in Conference 90% 99% 84%
Conference Champion 0% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round6% 7% 5%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Away) - 39.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 54 - 10
Quad 411 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 68 @Grand Canyon L 71 - 90 8% -15  1% 0 - 1 D+ -8 C -0 C+ D+ B- D -6 F F+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 39 @Ohio St. L 68 - 94 3% -14  0% 0 - 2 D -9 D -5 C- C- C- D+ -4 F D+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 295 @Western Michigan L 71 - 83 51% -1  50% 0 - 3 F+ -17 F -15 F D- B- C -1 C- D+ B
 Tue, Nov 18 110 @Utah L 77 - 85 14% -9  2% 0 - 4 C -1 B+ +7 A- D C D- -9 F B C+
 Fri, Nov 21 22 @Saint Louis L 60 - 91 2% -19  0% 0 - 5 D- -11 D- -6 D- C- C D+ -5 D- C A+
 Tue, Nov 25 353 Chicago St. W 90 - 77 87% +4  61% 1 - 5 C- -4 B+ +9 A+ F D- F -12 F+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 143 @Oakland L 92 - 101 20% -8  0% 1 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -5 B +7 B- D A F+ -11 F D C+
 Sat, Dec 6 201 Northern Kentucky W 79 - 77 54% -2  40% 2 - 6 1 - 1 C- -4 D -5 A F F+ C+ +1 C+ C- A+
 Wed, Dec 10 231 Eastern Michigan W 80 - 65 59% +12  95% 3 - 6 B +8 B+ +8 D+ A+ B+ C+ +1 F+ B- C-
 Sun, Dec 14 271 Detroit Mercy W 81 - 77 67% +2  61% 4 - 6 2 - 1 D+ -5 C+ +2 B- F+ A+ D -7 C- D D-
 Sun, Dec 21 82 @Notre Dame W 72 - 69 10% +4  89% 5 - 6 B+ +13 C +1 B- F A- A +11 A- B A
 Mon, Dec 29 268 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 55 - 77 44% -19  4% 5 - 7 2 - 2 F -25 F -21 F F B+ D+ -5 C- F A+
 Thu, Jan 1 244 Green Bay L 54 - 72 62% -10  0% 5 - 8 2 - 3 F -26 F -22 F+ F F D -6 D- D+ B-
 Sun, Jan 4 299 Cleveland St. W 74 - 71 73% -4  22% 6 - 8 3 - 3 D+ -8 D- -8 D- F B+ C +0 B+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 7 205 @Youngstown St. W 71 - 69 32% +0  50% 7 - 8 4 - 3 C+ +2 C- -0 C F+ B B- +3 A+ F A
 Sun, Jan 11 204 @Robert Morris W 79 - 74 32% +5  85% 8 - 8 5 - 3 B- +5 A- +10 A B+ D D+ -4 F+ A C-
 Sun, Jan 18 268 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 100 - 82 67% +9  99% 9 - 8 6 - 3 B +9 A+ +15 A+ C A+ D -7 F A B
 Wed, Jan 21 271 @Detroit Mercy W 83 - 76 45% +2  55% 10 - 8 7 - 3 C+ +4 C+ +3 C+ F A+ C+ +1 C- B- C+
 Wed, Jan 28 143 Oakland L 65 - 74 40% -1  30% 10 - 9 7 - 4 D -11 F -14 F C+ A- B- +3 C- A- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 204 Robert Morris W 83 - 71 54% +5  77% 11 - 9 8 - 4 B- +6 B- +4 B+ F A B- +2 C+ F A
 Wed, Feb 4 205 Youngstown St. L 61 - 90 55% -15  1% 11 - 10 8 - 5 F -35 F -11 C+ F A F -27 F D C
 Sat, Feb 7 150 @Wright St. L 68 - 73 22% -8  4% 11 - 11 8 - 6 C -1 C +2 B F C D+ -4 D+ F A-
 Thu, Feb 12 244 @Green Bay L 73 - 76 39%
 Sun, Feb 15 332 IU Indianapolis W 88 - 79 81%
 Wed, Feb 18 201 @Northern Kentucky L 75 - 80 32%
 Sun, Feb 22 299 @Cleveland St. W 81 - 80 51%
 Wed, Feb 25 150 Wright St. L 74 - 76 42%
 Sat, Feb 28 332 @IU Indianapolis W 85 - 82 62%
Totals 14 - 14 11 - 9 -5 C- -2 C D- B C- -3 D- D B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C C- C+ C 37% 16% 47% C+ C F C D- B F+ C- F+ C- D B D- D 39% 14% 47% D D- D- C- D B+ B D- B-
1.06 58% 36% 35% 0 0 1.03 21% 1.0 .22 15% .23 71% .17 1.12 63% 34% 38% +4 +1 1.11 35% 1.1 .37 20% .26 76% .18
Nov
3		 Grand Canyon C B+ B F C+ 30% 23% 47% C C+ F A+ D+ B- F A+ F D B F F F 48% 6% 46% F F A F F+ B+ C C C
0.95 61% 43% 25% -4 -1 0.92 16% 1.5 .24 17% .16 90% .14 1.20 54% 67% 48% +9 +3 1.26 25% 1.7 .43 20% .33 75% .25
Nov
7		 Ohio St. D A+ F F D+ 38% 24% 38% B C- F A+ C- C- C+ F D+ D+ F F F F 33% 10% 56% F F A F D+ A+ A+ C+ A+
0.94 71% 15% 24% -6 0 0.89 19% 1.4 .28 18% .29 65% .18 1.29 81% 60% 59% +31 +1 1.67 29% 1.5 .43 26% .24 77% .19
Nov
12		 Western Michigan F F+ C- F F 30% 13% 57% C- F D+ F D- B- F+ B D C D A+ B- C 43% 14% 43% F C- F A D+ B B- C- C+
0.94 50% 38% 23% -12 0 0.79 29% 0.9 .27 12% .24 75% .18 1.09 60% 25% 32% -2 +1 1.00 43% 0.8 .33 20% .25 73% .18
Nov
18		 Utah B+ A F B+ B+ 45% 11% 44% B+ A- B F D C F A- F D- F B- F F 35% 12% 53% C F D A+ B C+ D+ D- D-
1.16 68% 17% 38% +5 +2 1.15 34% 0.7 .23 15% .14 75% .11 1.28 71% 33% 46% +14 +1 1.31 34% 0.7 .24 17% .34 79% .27
Nov
21		 Saint Louis D- D- A- F F+ 28% 17% 56% C+ D- D- A+ C- C F B+ D- D+ F F F F+ 35% 6% 59% B D- F A+ C A+ C F F
0.85 47% 44% 20% -14 0 0.74 19% 1.1 .21 16% .24 79% .19 1.29 72% 67% 43% +15 +2 1.35 48% 0.7 .35 23% .31 94% .29
Nov
25		 Chicago St. B+ A- A A+ A+ 48% 4% 48% A- A+ D- F F D- D B+ D+ F C+ F C F 25% 38% 38% B F+ F F F A+ D F+ F+
1.32 74% 50% 52% +21 +3 1.50 30% 0.7 .22 22% .30 81% .24 1.13 50% 50% 33% +2 -3 1.00 50% 1.3 .63 25% .31 81% .25
Dec
3		 Oakland B C+ F B+ C+ 37% 11% 52% B+ B- F A- D A B+ F+ B- F+ F A+ F F 34% 20% 46% B F C- F+ D C+ C- C C-
1.20 63% 29% 38% +4 +1 1.12 22% 1.1 .24 10% .29 65% .19 1.31 89% 9% 42% +11 0 1.23 31% 1.3 .40 14% .36 75% .27
Dec
6		 Northern Kentucky D C B A+ A 48% 22% 30% C+ A C F F F+ B D- C+ C+ C B- B- C+ 30% 11% 59% C C+ F A C- A+ D+ F F
1.05 58% 45% 53% +11 +1 1.24 33% 0.5 .15 24% .38 64% .24 1.02 59% 33% 30% -3 +1 0.96 38% 0.9 .32 24% .31 94% .30
Dec
10		 Eastern Michigan B+ C+ F F D- 59% 20% 20% B+ D+ D A+ A+ B+ A A A+ C+ D- F C D- 44% 9% 47% F F+ A+ F B- C- C- A+ A-
1.21 59% 30% 20% -6 +2 0.94 25% 2.3 .57 14% .40 83% .33 0.98 65% 50% 33% +4 +2 1.13 16% 1.4 .22 17% .27 47% .13
Dec
14		 Detroit Mercy C+ C A+ D+ C+ 45% 8% 47% B+ B- F A F+ A+ B+ F D- D A+ B+ F C 33% 33% 33% D+ C- D D+ D D- B F C+
1.19 58% 75% 32% +2 +2 1.09 19% 1.3 .25 3% .41 52% .21 1.13 42% 32% 47% -1 -2 0.96 36% 1.0 .36 13% .24 86% .20
Dec
21		 Notre Dame C B- D C+ B- 24% 17% 59% C B- F F F A- C B- C A D- A+ A+ A+ 40% 13% 48% F A- D- A+ B A C F D
1.03 62% 33% 34% +1 -1 1.02 15% 0.8 .12 11% .28 76% .21 0.99 68% 17% 26% -4 +1 0.96 38% 0.7 .27 22% .31 82% .26
Dec
29		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee F C+ F F F 38% 9% 54% B- F F F F B+ F F F D+ B- B- C- C 37% 22% 41% D+ C- F F F A+ D+ F F+
0.82 62% 20% 23% -9 +1 0.88 11% 0.0 .00 13% .17 60% .10 1.14 53% 36% 33% -3 0 0.96 54% 1.3 .69 24% .29 80% .23
Jan
1		 Green Bay F F F C F 28% 11% 62% B- F+ F A F F F F F D D- C- D+ D- 41% 12% 46% D D- F+ B- D+ B- F F F
0.87 46% 20% 34% -5 0 0.94 15% 1.4 .21 18% .16 38% .06 1.16 65% 40% 37% +5 +1 1.15 30% 1.0 .30 18% .49 92% .45
Jan
4		 Cleveland St. D- B+ F D D- 27% 8% 65% C+ D- F D+ F B+ B+ B A- C A+ A+ D+ B+ 13% 13% 74% B+ B+ F F F B+ A+ F+ A+
1.10 69% 25% 31% -1 +1 1.02 26% 1.0 .26 12% .36 81% .29 1.06 33% 17% 37% -2 -1 0.96 42% 1.3 .55 22% .21 82% .17
Jan
7		 Youngstown St. C- D- F+ A+ C+ 28% 23% 49% D C D- F F+ B B- B- B B- A A+ A+ A+ 44% 6% 50% F A+ F F F A C- F D
1.07 54% 27% 43% +3 -1 1.06 26% 0.8 .20 17% .40 77% .31 1.04 48% 0% 25% -14 +2 0.79 41% 1.5 .62 24% .28 79% .22
Jan
11		 Robert Morris A- D+ A+ A+ A+ 28% 23% 49% F+ A D+ A+ B+ D D- D- F+ D+ D+ C- D- D- 42% 9% 49% F F+ D+ A+ A C- B+ C- B
1.23 54% 64% 43% +12 -1 1.23 27% 1.4 .38 19% .32 71% .23 1.15 59% 40% 38% +4 +2 1.13 38% 0.7 .27 17% .19 70% .13
Jan
18		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee A+ A- D A+ A+ 46% 21% 33% C- A+ F+ A+ C A+ D B+ D+ D B F F F 45% 25% 30% D F B- A+ A B F F F
1.37 69% 33% 53% +14 0 1.30 23% 1.6 .35 10% .29 79% .23 1.12 50% 62% 44% +7 0 1.15 29% 0.7 .21 18% .35 81% .28
Jan
21		 Detroit Mercy C+ F F A+ C+ 35% 15% 50% C- C+ F F F A+ C+ D+ C C+ D A- F+ C- 28% 40% 32% B C- B C B- C+ D+ B C-
1.15 47% 25% 44% +2 +1 1.07 23% 0.9 .20 8% .36 71% .26 1.06 63% 30% 39% +1 -3 0.96 28% 0.9 .26 17% .30 72% .22
Jan
28		 Oakland F F A- D- F 37% 3% 59% A F F A+ C+ A- F F F B- C+ A+ D- C 52% 8% 40% F C- C A+ A- C+ C B+ B-
0.94 36% 50% 29% -12 +2 0.81 20% 1.7 .34 12% .11 57% .07 1.07 56% 0% 38% -2 +3 1.04 31% 0.8 .25 14% .34 70% .24
Jan
31		 Robert Morris B- D+ F A+ B 46% 13% 40% B- B+ F C+ F A D- A+ C+ B- F A+ A+ B 43% 8% 49% F C+ C+ F F A A- A+ A+
1.19 54% 29% 48% +5 +1 1.15 14% 1.0 .14 11% .32 95% .31 1.02 68% 25% 24% -4 +2 0.98 34% 1.6 .56 23% .17 44% .07
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Youngstown St. F B+ B F+ C 45% 20% 35% B- C+ F F F A F D+ F F F F F F 43% 4% 53% F F A+ F D C A+ B A+
0.96 68% 40% 29% +3 0 1.08 10% 0.0 .00 14% .20 73% .15 1.42 76% 50% 58% +27 +2 1.61 21% 1.8 .37 19% .12 67% .08
Feb
7		 Wright St. C C+ A+ C B+ 32% 23% 45% D B F+ F F C D- B+ D+ D+ F C+ A+ D+ 44% 19% 37% D+ D+ F B+ F A- F A+ D-
1.09 60% 64% 33% +6 -1 1.13 23% 0.7 .17 18% .25 77% .19 1.17 74% 38% 25% +2 +1 1.07 48% 1.0 .48 21% .49 58% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 2.5 0.9 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.8 11.1 20.5 7.9 0.7 40.8 3rd
4th 0.0 5.1 14.7 3.2 0.1 23.0 4th
5th 1.1 10.4 4.8 0.1 16.4 5th
6th 0.1 4.2 5.0 0.3 9.5 6th
7th 0.4 3.1 0.5 4.0 7th
8th 0.6 0.4 1.0 8th
9th 0.3 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 1.4 8.9 21.8 30.8 24.7 10.5 1.9 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 17.6% 0.3    0.2 0.1
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.9% 10.9% 10.9% 14.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.7
13-7 10.5% 9.9% 9.9% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 9.5
12-8 24.7% 8.4% 8.4% 15.3 0.1 1.2 0.7 22.6
11-9 30.8% 5.7% 5.7% 15.6 0.7 1.1 29.1
10-10 21.8% 3.6% 3.6% 15.8 0.2 0.6 21.0
9-11 8.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 8.7
8-12 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.3
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 15.4 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 14.0 28.6 47.6 23.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 0.7%