Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
131 St. Thomas 36.3%   14   13 - 5 5 - 1 +1.7      +1.4 130 +0.3 157 70.5 136 +3.1 116 +4.4 2
147 North Dakota St. 31.6%   14 - 5 7 - 0 +0.8      +0.8 138 0.0 168 65.9 267 +3.3 113 +10.2 1
170 South Dakota St. 17.8%   7 - 11 3 - 3 -1.0      +0.1 161 -1.1 210 70.3 146 -4.6 233 -5.2 5
261 Nebraska Omaha 4.4%   5 - 12 2 - 4 -5.5      -1.9 222 -3.6 282 68.2 204 -7.9 294 -11.9 7
280 Denver 3.0%   6 - 12 2 - 4 -6.6      +2.9 102 -9.5 363 69.6 165 -4.9 235 -9.7 6
283 South Dakota 3.5%   8 - 10 3 - 3 -6.9      -1.5 212 -5.4 324 77.4 21 -5.3 247 -3.8 4
297 North Dakota 2.4%   8 - 12 5 - 2 -7.8      -2.4 234 -5.4 325 70.0 154 -6.6 273 -1.4 3
321 Oral Roberts 0.7%   2 - 16 0 - 6 -9.9      -5.5 312 -4.4 304 68.4 199 -12.6 340 -21.1 9
353 UMKC 0.2%   1 - 16 1 - 5 -13.0      -7.5 344 -5.6 332 71.1 120 -17.1 355 -12.7 8


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Jan 21 261 Nebraska Omaha 64 283 South Dakota 68   
Thu, Jan 22 170 South Dakota St. 69 131 St. Thomas 74   
Thu, Jan 22 280 Denver 77 147 North Dakota St. 82   
Thu, Jan 22 297 North Dakota 79 321 Oral Roberts 62   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 24 280 Denver 85 297 North Dakota 81 66%   
Sat, Jan 24 283 South Dakota 79 131 St. Thomas 85 71%   
Sat, Jan 24 147 North Dakota St. 76 321 Oral Roberts 68 77%   
Sat, Jan 24 353 UMKC 73 261 Nebraska Omaha 77 67%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
St. Thomas 1.6 45.5 46.5 6.6 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Dakota St. 1.3 71.2 25.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 3.2 3.7 15.5 51.8 17.3 7.4 3.1 0.9 0.3 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 5.7 0.1 0.8 6.2 14.8 20.8 24.0 24.1 7.8 1.5
Denver 5.6 0.0 0.8 7.6 16.3 19.9 23.6 23.0 7.1 1.7
South Dakota 4.9 0.3 2.6 15.7 23.8 25.1 19.2 10.2 2.8 0.4
North Dakota 4.3 0.7 3.5 20.8 35.6 22.8 12.2 4.3 0.3 0.0
Oral Roberts 8.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 5.9 15.5 37.5 38.1
UMKC 8.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 5.5 14.9 38.3 38.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
St. Thomas 13 - 3 21 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 5.2 13.1 23.3 27.6 21.3 7.6
North Dakota St. 13 - 3 20 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.9 6.6 15.8 25.8 27.7 16.9 4.8
South Dakota St. 10 - 6 14 - 14 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 5.6 12.4 19.6 24.3 21.0 11.7 3.1
Nebraska Omaha 7 - 9 10 - 17 0.4 2.4 8.0 16.3 21.8 22.5 16.1 8.7 2.9 0.7 0.1
Denver 7 - 9 11 - 17 0.5 2.6 7.7 15.3 21.1 22.1 16.5 9.5 3.8 0.9 0.1
South Dakota 8 - 8 13 - 15 0.4 2.3 8.2 15.2 21.8 22.0 16.2 9.1 3.9 0.9 0.1
North Dakota 8 - 8 11 - 18 1.3 8.3 19.6 26.9 23.4 13.7 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.0
Oral Roberts 3 - 13 5 - 23 1.6 8.0 17.5 24.6 22.6 15.3 7.4 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
UMKC 4 - 12 4 - 23 6.6 19.4 26.9 22.9 14.6 6.8 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
St. Thomas 45.5% 26.9 17.2 1.4 0.1 0.0
North Dakota St. 71.2% 52.2 17.5 1.4 0.1 0.0
South Dakota St. 3.7% 0.8 1.8 1.1 0.1 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 0.1% 0.0 0.1
Denver 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Dakota 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Dakota 0.7% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
Oral Roberts
UMKC


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
St. Thomas 36.3% 36.3% 0.0% 14   0.2 3.8 12.4 15.5 4.2 0.2 63.7 0.0%
North Dakota St. 31.6% 31.6% 0.0% 0.1 2.3 9.2 14.4 5.4 0.2 68.4 0.0%
South Dakota St. 17.8% 17.8% 0.0% 0.2 1.1 3.6 7.5 5.4 82.2 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 4.0 95.6 0.0%
Denver 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 97.0 0.0%
South Dakota 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.9 96.5 0.0%
North Dakota 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.3 97.6 0.0%
Oral Roberts 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7 99.3 0.0%
UMKC 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 94.5% 0.9 5.5 94.5
2nd Round 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
St. Thomas 36.3% 0.0% 36.3% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 31.6% 0.0% 31.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota St. 17.8% 2.7% 16.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 4.4% 3.4% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 3.0% 2.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 3.5% 1.9% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 2.4% 2.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%