Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
147 South Dakota St. 27.2%   14   1 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 5 +0.3      +1.0 136 -0.7 187 71.6 92 +7.7 33 0.0 1
161 St. Thomas 23.4%   0 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 5 -0.5      +1.5 116 -2.0 234 69.2 161 +1.4 107 0.0 1
190 Nebraska Omaha 16.7%   0 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 13 9 - 6 -1.9      +0.4 150 -2.3 254 71.4 100 -10.5 339 0.0 1
198 North Dakota St. 15.8%   0 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 13 10 - 6 -2.3      -0.2 170 -2.1 244 63.6 309 -7.9 330 0.0 1
298 UMKC 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 9 -7.4      -5.7 332 -1.8 223 62.4 334 0.0 121 0.0 1
301 South Dakota 4.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 9 -7.5      -1.9 224 -5.5 342 83.8 4 -21.6 365 0.0 1
315 Oral Roberts 3.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 19 6 - 9 -8.5      -3.3 269 -5.3 336 68.1 197 0.0 121 0.0 1
316 North Dakota 2.9%   0 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 10 -8.6      -3.3 271 -5.2 334 71.6 94 +6.1 52 0.0 1
327 Denver 2.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 8 - 20 6 - 10 -9.5      -5.0 320 -4.5 321 74.3 50 -8.0 331 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
South Dakota St. 2.6 37.4 22.5 15.3 10.3 6.4 3.8 2.3 1.4 0.6
St. Thomas 2.8 32.3 22.7 15.5 11.0 7.8 5.1 3.0 1.9 0.8
Nebraska Omaha 3.8 15.4 17.4 17.1 15.5 12.8 9.2 6.2 4.3 2.1
North Dakota St. 3.5 20.9 19.7 16.7 14.0 10.7 7.2 5.4 3.5 1.9
UMKC 5.6 4.9 7.5 9.5 11.6 13.2 14.0 14.1 13.5 11.7
South Dakota 5.6 4.2 6.8 9.4 11.5 13.5 15.2 14.9 13.5 11.0
Oral Roberts 6.2 2.6 4.7 6.9 9.6 12.5 14.2 16.1 17.1 16.3
North Dakota 6.1 2.8 4.9 7.0 10.1 12.4 14.6 16.2 16.3 15.7
Denver 6.4 2.0 3.9 6.2 8.4 11.4 13.9 16.3 18.1 19.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
South Dakota St. 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.9 5.0 7.4 10.3 12.7 14.4 14.0 12.8 9.7 5.8 1.9
St. Thomas 11 - 5 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.9 5.8 8.5 11.0 12.9 14.3 13.4 11.5 8.4 4.5 1.5
Nebraska Omaha 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.8 4.9 7.7 10.6 12.5 13.7 14.0 12.2 9.5 5.9 3.0 0.8
North Dakota St. 10 - 6 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.1 6.1 8.8 11.0 12.6 13.6 12.9 10.9 7.8 5.0 2.3 0.6
UMKC 7 - 9 0.6 2.0 4.6 7.1 9.9 11.9 12.8 12.5 10.8 9.4 7.6 5.0 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.0
South Dakota 7 - 9 0.4 1.9 4.4 6.8 10.1 12.6 13.6 13.2 11.1 9.4 6.9 4.8 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
Oral Roberts 6 - 10 1.0 3.3 6.1 9.9 12.2 13.6 13.6 11.8 10.3 7.4 5.1 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.0
North Dakota 6 - 10 0.9 2.9 6.3 9.2 12.2 13.2 13.8 12.0 10.3 7.6 5.2 3.2 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Denver 6 - 10 1.2 4.2 7.8 10.8 13.2 13.9 13.1 11.5 8.9 6.5 4.3 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Dakota St. 37.4% 27.3 8.0 1.9 0.3 0.0
St. Thomas 32.3% 22.7 7.6 1.8 0.3 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 15.4% 9.1 4.7 1.3 0.3 0.0
North Dakota St. 20.9% 13.6 5.6 1.5 0.2 0.0
UMKC 4.9% 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
South Dakota 4.2% 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
Oral Roberts 2.6% 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Dakota 2.8% 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Denver 2.0% 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Dakota St. 27.2% 27.2% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 4.4 7.0 7.4 5.0 2.9 72.8 0.0%
St. Thomas 23.4% 23.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.6 4.9 6.6 5.6 3.9 76.6 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 4.2 4.7 5.2 83.3 0.0%
North Dakota St. 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.9 4.5 5.2 84.2 0.0%
UMKC 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.3 95.6 0.0%
South Dakota 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.3 95.8 0.0%
Oral Roberts 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 96.8 0.0%
North Dakota 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 97.1 0.0%
Denver 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.8 97.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Dakota St. 27.2% 1.5% 27.2% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 23.4% 1.9% 23.6% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 16.7% 3.1% 16.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 15.8% 3.0% 15.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 4.4% 1.5% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 4.2% 2.3% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 3.3% 1.4% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 2.9% 1.2% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 2.2% 1.3% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 93.5% 1.0 6.5 89.2 4.3
2nd Round 5.2% 0.1 94.8 5.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0