Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
114 South Dakota St. 32.2%   14   12 - 9 6 - 3 17 - 11 11 - 5 +3.0      +2.0 119 +1.0 144 70.5 119 +1.4 147 +0.7 3
119 St. Thomas 29.2%   15 - 6 8 - 1 20 - 8 13 - 3 +2.4      +4.5 70 -2.0 231 69.2 156 +3.9 110 +8.8 1
139 North Dakota St. 21.8%   13 - 8 5 - 4 18 - 10 10 - 6 +1.3      +5.1 57 -3.8 286 64.2 292 +1.0 155 -2.5 4
212 Nebraska Omaha 8.9%   12 - 10 8 - 1 16 - 13 12 - 4 -2.7      +0.6 164 -3.3 273 68.3 184 -1.2 188 +8.3 2
235 UMKC 3.2%   6 - 14 2 - 7 9 - 18 5 - 11 -4.3      -4.0 284 -0.3 177 63.6 305 -8.0 298 -11.4 8
262 South Dakota 2.4%   9 - 10 4 - 4 13 - 15 7 - 9 -5.7      +2.6 102 -8.3 358 80.5 5 -3.4 223 -3.1 5
269 North Dakota 1.7%   6 - 15 3 - 6 9 - 19 6 - 10 -6.1      +1.3 141 -7.4 352 70.9 107 -6.9 281 -7.3 6
315 Oral Roberts 0.4%   3 - 15 2 - 7 5 - 20 4 - 12 -9.0      -0.8 196 -8.2 356 68.7 168 -11.4 333 -11.6 9
331 Denver 0.2%   5 - 16 2 - 7 7 - 21 4 - 12 -10.6      -4.9 303 -5.8 334 67.1 216 -9.5 315 -10.1 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
South Dakota St. 2.4 18.9 38.6 30.8 10.7 1.0 0.1
St. Thomas 1.3 80.6 13.9 4.9 0.6
North Dakota St. 3.5 2.1 13.4 25.3 51.8 6.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 2.2 25.6 40.2 25.8 7.9 0.5 0.0
UMKC 6.6 0.1 1.1 15.4 31.3 33.2 14.2 4.7
South Dakota 5.1 0.1 1.2 3.5 14.7 57.1 16.4 5.6 1.4 0.2
North Dakota 6.1 0.0 0.3 3.6 25.5 40.6 19.6 7.7 2.6
Oral Roberts 7.7 0.0 0.2 3.3 11.4 21.6 33.7 29.8
Denver 7.9 0.1 2.6 9.8 20.2 33.1 34.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
South Dakota St. 11 - 5 0.0 0.4 1.6 6.5 16.3 29.4 30.8 15.1
St. Thomas 13 - 3 0.3 1.8 7.3 19.5 31.4 29.2 10.5
North Dakota St. 10 - 6 0.0 0.4 2.7 11.5 26.0 31.6 21.4 6.4
Nebraska Omaha 12 - 4 0.5 4.1 14.9 26.7 29.4 17.8 5.8 0.8
UMKC 5 - 11 0.9 7.2 20.2 30.4 25.4 12.5 3.2 0.3
South Dakota 7 - 9 1.6 7.8 18.7 26.9 23.9 14.2 5.5 1.4 0.2
North Dakota 6 - 10 2.0 10.8 25.6 29.5 21.0 8.8 2.0 0.2
Oral Roberts 4 - 12 10.9 27.8 30.0 20.7 8.3 2.0 0.3 0.0
Denver 4 - 12 12.0 30.3 31.7 18.1 6.6 1.2 0.2




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Dakota St. 18.9% 5.4 9.8 3.5 0.1
St. Thomas 80.6% 60.3 16.5 3.7 0.1
North Dakota St. 2.1% 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.1
Nebraska Omaha 25.6% 11.0 10.9 3.5 0.1
UMKC
South Dakota 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Dakota
Oral Roberts
Denver


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Dakota St. 32.2% 32.2% 0.0% 14   0.3 6.4 14.8 9.1 1.7 0.0 67.8 0.0%
St. Thomas 29.2% 29.2% 0.0% 0.4 5.9 13.4 8.3 1.3 0.0 70.8 0.0%
North Dakota St. 21.8% 21.8% 0.0% 0.0 3.4 10.1 6.9 1.3 0.0 78.2 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.2 1.4 4.5 2.8 91.1 0.0%
UMKC 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.1 3.1 96.9 0.0%
South Dakota 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 97.6 0.0%
North Dakota 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 1.7 98.3 0.0%
Oral Roberts 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Denver 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
South Dakota St. 32.2% 0.0% 32.2% 3.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Thomas 29.2% 0.0% 29.2% 2.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 21.8% 0.0% 21.8% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 8.9% 0.7% 8.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UMKC 3.2% 2.9% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota 2.4% 1.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 1.7% 1.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.0% 1.0 3.0 97.0
2nd Round 7.4% 0.1 92.6 7.4
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0