South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.0 #170
Expected Predictive Rating -4.6 #233
Pace 70.3 #146
Improvement -0.9 #228

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #161 C+ C C D- C+
Defense #210 C- C C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #123 1.18 #145 +1.8 #113
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #214 0.79 #120 -0.4 #198
Three Pointers 41% #186 1.02 #183 -0.1 #184
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #138 +1.3 #137
Freethrows 14.8 #301 68% #308 10.1 #321
Second Chance 30.5% #184 1.03 #198 0.31 #185
Turnovers 16.5% #173
Total Offense +0.1 #161

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #297 1.20 #248 +1.6 #125
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #276 0.81 #276 +0.9 #131
Three Pointers 48% #28 1.00 #169 -3.2 #307
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #210 -0.8 #201
Freethrows 17.2 #181 76% #318 13.1 #213
Second Chance 28.8% #107 1.10 #265 0.32 #177
Turnovers 16.0% #206
Total Defense -1.1 #210

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #131 0.2% #175
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.6% #153 1.9% #215
Possession Length 17.5 #190 17.2 #158
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #162 0.17 #165
Improvement +1.2 #115 -2.1 #299

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.1% 19.6% 16.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 55.9% 68.9% 39.5%
.500 or above in Conference 91.9% 96.5% 86.2%
Conference Champion 3.5% 5.4% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four2.7% 1.6% 4.0%
First Round17.1% 19.0% 14.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Away) - 55.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 413 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 208 Merrimack W 75 - 66 58% +2  1 - 0 +6 +2 C C- D- +4 A+ A- C
 Sun, Nov 9 110 @Northern Iowa L 58 - 65 23% -4  1 - 1 -0 -0 B- B+ F -1 F A A-
 Wed, Nov 12 68 @Oregon L 69 - 83 13% -5  1 - 2 -3 +1 C C- C+ -3 D+ B+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 273 Georgia St. W 105 - 58 78% +28  2 - 2 +38 +29 A+ D- B+ +8 B A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 25 107 Utah Valley L 52 - 75 31% -10  2 - 3 -19 -18 F F F -1 B F A
 Wed, Nov 26 123 UC Irvine L 52 - 64 37% -7  2 - 4 -10 -19 F F F +10 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 315 @Northern Arizona W 75 - 62 70% +6  3 - 4 +7 -0 F C C +7 A C B-
 Sat, Dec 6 183 Idaho L 81 - 84 64% +1  3 - 5 -8 +6 C+ F A+ -14 F B- D-
 Tue, Dec 9 296 @Ball St. W 68 - 64 64% +0  4 - 5 -1 +0 C D+ C+ -0 B+ F F
 Mon, Dec 15 108 Wyoming L 72 - 87 31% -13  4 - 6 -11 +3 C C- A+ -15 F F C
 Fri, Dec 19 248 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 87 - 88 65% -1  4 - 7 -6 +12 A- B B+ -18 F F C
 Mon, Dec 29 2 @Arizona L 71 - 99 1% -16  4 - 8 -2 +4 B- A+ C -3 C F A+
 Thu, Jan 1 261 Nebraska Omaha W 84 - 69 76% +6  5 - 8 1 - 0 +6 +6 C- A+ C- +0 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 297 @North Dakota L 87 - 90 OT 64% -1  5 - 9 1 - 1 -8 +11 C B+ B- -18 F F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 280 Denver W 87 - 79 79% +1  6 - 9 2 - 1 -2 +4 D B+ C -5 B- C F
 Wed, Jan 14 147 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 76 32% -8  6 - 10 2 - 2 -7 -1 C+ F B -7 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 353 UMKC W 90 - 62 91% +6  7 - 10 3 - 2 +12 +17 A+ C A- -3 B- F D-
 Thu, Jan 22 131 @St. Thomas L 69 - 74 29% +1  7 - 11 3 - 3 -0 -2 C F C +1 C+ D- A+
 Wed, Jan 28 261 @Nebraska Omaha W 77 - 75 56%
 Sat, Jan 31 321 Oral Roberts W 81 - 69 87%
 Wed, Feb 4 131 St. Thomas W 77 - 76 51%
 Sat, Feb 7 283 South Dakota W 86 - 77 80%
 Thu, Feb 12 280 @Denver W 83 - 80 59%
 Sat, Feb 14 321 @Oral Roberts W 78 - 72 71%
 Wed, Feb 18 147 North Dakota St. W 75 - 74 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 297 North Dakota W 83 - 73 82%
 Thu, Feb 26 353 @UMKC W 80 - 71 80%
 Sat, Feb 28 283 @South Dakota W 83 - 80 61%
Totals 14 - 14 10 - 6 -1 +0 C+ C C -1 C- C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.7 3.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 5.8 6.5 1.4 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 11.5 19.7 14.3 3.8 0.1 51.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 6.3 7.5 2.5 0.1 17.4 4th
5th 0.3 2.7 3.5 0.9 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.9 5.6 12.3 20.0 24.1 20.5 11.8 3.3 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 51.8% 1.7    0.5 0.9 0.3
12-4 13.0% 1.5    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.0
11-5 1.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 0.8 1.6 1.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 3.3% 36.3% 36.3% 13.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.1
12-4 11.8% 26.1% 26.1% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.9 0.0 8.7
11-5 20.5% 21.6% 21.6% 14.7 0.1 1.3 2.7 0.3 16.1
10-6 24.1% 16.7% 16.7% 15.2 0.1 2.9 1.0 20.0
9-7 20.0% 15.5% 15.5% 15.8 0.7 2.4 16.9
8-8 12.3% 12.8% 12.8% 16.0 0.0 1.5 10.7
7-9 5.6% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.5 5.2
6-10 1.9% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.2 1.7
5-11 0.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-12 0.1% 0.1
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 15.0 82.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 13.2 13.1 57.2 29.2 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%