South Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.0#114
Expected Predictive Rating+1.4#147
Pace70.5#119
Improvement-1.3#246

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#119
First Shot-0.6#195
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#34
Layup/Dunks-0.5#204
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#209
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#120
Freethrows-1.2#260
Improvement-1.3#266

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#144
First Shot-1.7#235
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#14
Layups/Dunks+5.0#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#324
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#348
Freethrows+1.2#98
Improvement+0.0#185
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.2% 34.5% 28.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 99.1% 99.9% 97.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 100.0% 99.1%
Conference Champion 18.9% 28.7% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round32.2% 34.5% 28.4%
Second Round3.0% 3.4% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Thomas (Home) - 63.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 33 - 45 - 9
Quad 414 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 87   McNeese St. W 80-73 36%     1 - 0 +13.5 +6.4 +6.8
  Nov 08, 2024 305   Long Beach St. W 80-79 89%     2 - 0 -9.7 +0.8 -10.5
  Nov 14, 2024 154   Northern Colorado L 69-78 59%     2 - 1 -8.3 -6.5 -1.7
  Nov 20, 2024 248   Southern Miss W 101-76 84%     3 - 1 +17.4 +9.0 +4.0
  Nov 24, 2024 142   Duquesne W 71-60 57%     4 - 1 +12.2 +5.2 +7.7
  Nov 25, 2024 51   Boise St. L 82-83 25%     4 - 2 +9.2 +13.3 -4.1
  Nov 26, 2024 223   Missouri St. W 75-55 73%     5 - 2 +16.6 +6.2 +11.7
  Dec 04, 2024 207   @ Montana L 67-71 61%     5 - 3 -3.8 -10.1 +6.5
  Dec 07, 2024 252   Eastern Washington W 74-53 84%     6 - 3 +13.2 +0.5 +13.4
  Dec 11, 2024 88   @ Nevada L 63-77 28%     6 - 4 -5.0 +5.3 -12.6
  Dec 13, 2024 98   @ Colorado L 70-81 34%     6 - 5 -3.6 +7.7 -12.2
  Dec 29, 2024 5   @ Alabama L 82-105 5%     6 - 6 -0.8 +10.2 -9.1
  Jan 02, 2025 331   Denver W 91-70 93%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +7.9 +3.4 +2.7
  Jan 08, 2025 119   @ St. Thomas L 72-73 43%     7 - 7 1 - 1 +3.9 +5.0 -1.2
  Jan 11, 2025 212   @ Nebraska Omaha L 80-87 62%     7 - 8 1 - 2 -7.2 +3.7 -10.8
  Jan 16, 2025 269   North Dakota W 109-73 86%     8 - 8 2 - 2 +27.4 +21.3 +4.0
  Jan 18, 2025 315   Oral Roberts W 84-70 91%     9 - 8 3 - 2 +2.5 +2.0 +0.5
  Jan 23, 2025 235   @ UMKC W 65-64 68%     10 - 8 4 - 2 -0.8 -2.9 +2.2
  Jan 25, 2025 262   South Dakota W 90-71 85%     11 - 8 5 - 2 +10.8 +2.3 +7.4
  Jan 30, 2025 139   @ North Dakota St. W 72-62 47%     12 - 8 6 - 2 +13.8 +5.9 +9.2
  Feb 01, 2025 269   @ North Dakota L 75-80 74%     12 - 9 6 - 3 -8.6 +0.3 -9.2
  Feb 06, 2025 119   St. Thomas W 79-76 63%    
  Feb 13, 2025 212   Nebraska Omaha W 80-72 79%    
  Feb 15, 2025 262   @ South Dakota W 89-83 70%    
  Feb 19, 2025 139   North Dakota St. W 78-74 67%    
  Feb 23, 2025 235   UMKC W 74-64 82%    
  Feb 27, 2025 315   @ Oral Roberts W 82-73 80%    
  Mar 01, 2025 331   @ Denver W 79-68 84%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.8 7.1 11.0 18.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 13.2 19.8 4.1 38.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 10.2 15.0 3.9 30.8 3rd
4th 0.2 1.1 4.4 4.6 0.5 10.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.6 6.5 16.3 29.4 30.8 15.1 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 72.8% 11.0    4.4 5.8 0.8
12-4 23.0% 7.1    0.9 3.8 2.3 0.1
11-5 2.6% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 18.9% 18.9 5.4 9.8 3.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 15.1% 41.5% 41.5% 12.3 0.2 3.9 2.0 0.1 8.9
12-4 30.8% 36.7% 36.7% 13.0 0.0 1.9 7.0 2.2 0.1 19.5
11-5 29.4% 30.1% 30.1% 13.5 0.5 4.1 3.8 0.5 20.6
10-6 16.3% 25.4% 25.4% 13.7 0.1 1.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 12.2
9-7 6.5% 21.3% 21.3% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 5.1
8-8 1.6% 17.3% 17.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3
7-9 0.4% 11.4% 11.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 32.2% 32.2% 0.0% 13.2 0.3 6.4 14.8 9.1 1.7 0.0 67.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.3% 100.0% 12.3 3.8 61.7 32.4 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.6%