Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Horizon
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#133
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#146
Pace72.6#75
Improvement+2.1#89

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#152
First Shot-2.1#239
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#21
Layup/Dunks+2.7#87
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#149
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#330
Freethrows+0.0#172
Improvement+0.1#182

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#154
First Shot+2.0#111
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#301
Layups/Dunks-0.4#178
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#204
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#89
Freethrows+0.1#178
Improvement+2.0#82
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.0% 24.5% 21.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.0%
Conference Champion 15.4% 17.7% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round24.0% 24.5% 21.8%
Second Round1.4% 1.5% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: IU Indianapolis (Away) - 81.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 37 - 68 - 8
Quad 412 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 108   @ Northern Iowa L 68-87 32%     0 - 1 -12.5 -0.7 -12.4
  Nov 13, 2024 190   @ Longwood L 62-76 52%     0 - 2 -12.9 -19.7 +8.7
  Nov 19, 2024 142   @ Duquesne W 80-74 42%     1 - 2 +9.7 +12.0 -2.3
  Nov 22, 2024 215   Portland St. W 91-74 75%     2 - 2 +11.5 +16.1 -4.7
  Nov 23, 2024 151   Wofford W 76-74 63%     3 - 2 +0.3 +5.7 -5.3
  Nov 24, 2024 119   St. Thomas W 69-65 57%     4 - 2 +3.9 -6.1 +10.1
  Nov 27, 2024 62   @ Central Florida L 76-84 18%     4 - 3 +3.4 +5.6 -1.9
  Nov 30, 2024 248   @ Southern Miss L 65-66 66%     4 - 4 -3.7 -0.7 -3.1
  Dec 05, 2024 157   Cleveland St. W 79-67 64%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +10.0 +13.4 -2.4
  Dec 11, 2024 347   @ Green Bay W 88-67 85%     6 - 4 2 - 0 +11.5 +9.6 +2.0
  Dec 15, 2024 100   Akron W 100-81 38%     7 - 4 +23.7 +11.8 +8.7
  Dec 29, 2024 330   IU Indianapolis W 88-81 91%     8 - 4 3 - 0 -6.1 +6.8 -12.7
  Jan 02, 2025 188   @ Oakland L 49-65 52%     8 - 5 3 - 1 -14.9 -17.4 +0.3
  Jan 04, 2025 323   @ Detroit Mercy W 64-56 81%     9 - 5 4 - 1 +0.5 -9.2 +9.8
  Jan 08, 2025 149   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 73-78 43%     9 - 6 4 - 2 -1.6 -8.9 +7.8
  Jan 11, 2025 347   Green Bay W 70-59 93%     10 - 6 5 - 2 -3.5 -9.0 +5.8
  Jan 17, 2025 219   Youngstown St. W 79-64 76%     11 - 6 6 - 2 +9.3 +5.6 +3.7
  Jan 19, 2025 194   Robert Morris L 79-81 71%     11 - 7 6 - 3 -6.1 +2.8 -8.8
  Jan 22, 2025 196   @ Wright St. W 95-79 53%     12 - 7 7 - 3 +16.8 +19.7 -2.9
  Jan 24, 2025 244   @ Northern Kentucky W 79-59 65%     13 - 7 8 - 3 +17.6 +12.0 +6.7
  Feb 02, 2025 149   Purdue Fort Wayne L 79-81 62%     13 - 8 8 - 4 -3.6 -1.2 -2.3
  Feb 05, 2025 330   @ IU Indianapolis W 81-71 81%    
  Feb 08, 2025 157   @ Cleveland St. L 71-72 43%    
  Feb 14, 2025 196   Wright St. W 81-75 73%    
  Feb 16, 2025 244   Northern Kentucky W 74-65 82%    
  Feb 21, 2025 219   @ Youngstown St. W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 23, 2025 194   @ Robert Morris W 76-75 50%    
  Feb 27, 2025 188   Oakland W 72-67 71%    
  Mar 01, 2025 323   Detroit Mercy W 78-64 91%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.2 7.8 4.2 15.4 1st
2nd 0.5 8.4 19.4 9.8 0.9 38.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.9 14.3 5.4 0.2 24.9 3rd
4th 1.1 7.2 2.9 0.1 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.8 2.8 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.1 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 1.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.4 6.2 15.4 25.9 28.0 17.8 5.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 82.4% 4.2    2.4 1.8 0.1
15-5 43.7% 7.8    2.7 4.2 0.9
14-6 11.4% 3.2    0.3 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.4% 15.4 5.3 7.4 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 5.1% 34.6% 34.6% 12.5 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 3.4
15-5 17.8% 31.1% 31.1% 13.3 0.6 2.9 2.0 0.1 12.2
14-6 28.0% 25.6% 25.6% 13.8 0.1 2.2 3.9 0.9 20.8
13-7 25.9% 22.2% 22.2% 14.1 0.0 1.1 3.2 1.5 0.0 20.1
12-8 15.4% 16.9% 16.9% 14.3 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.0 12.8
11-9 6.2% 16.7% 16.7% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 5.2
10-10 1.4% 7.0% 7.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
9-11 0.2% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% 13.7 0.1 1.6 7.2 10.8 4.2 0.1 76.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 12.5 2.8 53.1 39.5 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%