Horizon
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
139 Oakland 28.4%   15   10 - 10 7 - 3 +1.3      +4.8 70 -3.5 279 74.5 48 +1.8 132 +1.5 2
154 Wright St. 23.0%   10 - 8 7 - 2 +0.4      +1.4 129 -1.1 209 66.5 248 -0.9 175 +2.6 1
178 Northern Kentucky 14.9%   11 - 7 6 - 4 -1.3      -0.4 173 -0.9 201 72.4 86 -1.6 196 -2.7 5
200 Robert Morris 8.9%   11 - 8 5 - 5 -2.6      +0.3 155 -2.9 266 65.3 276 -1.0 178 -3.6 6
212 Purdue Fort Wayne 8.9%   10 - 8 7 - 3 -3.2      -1.1 197 -2.1 243 71.1 118 +0.9 150 +0.8 3
213 Youngstown St. 5.8%   7 - 11 3 - 7 -3.2      -1.4 207 -1.8 234 68.9 180 -6.2 266 -8.9 9
248 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.7%   7 - 13 4 - 6 -4.9      -1.0 192 -3.9 291 70.4 141 -4.9 234 -6.0 8
255 Green Bay 4.4%   9 - 10 6 - 4 -5.1      +0.8 140 -5.9 336 61.1 351 -1.6 197 -2.0 4
286 Detroit Mercy 1.5%   6 - 11 5 - 5 -7.2      -3.1 260 -4.2 300 71.6 102 -6.6 272 -5.4 7
316 Cleveland St. 0.4%   4 - 14 3 - 7 -9.5      -1.3 205 -8.2 358 71.5 106 -9.8 323 -9.8 10
337 IU Indianapolis 0.1%   4 - 16 2 - 9 -11.3      -3.6 274 -7.6 354 83.4 3 -11.5 333 -12.5 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Jan 21 316 Cleveland St. 85 154 Wright St. 79   
Wed, Jan 21 286 Detroit Mercy 76 212 Purdue Fort Wayne 83   
Wed, Jan 21 337 IU Indianapolis 103 139 Oakland 85   
Thu, Jan 22 248 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 76 200 Robert Morris 88   
Thu, Jan 22 255 Green Bay 81 213 Youngstown St. 88   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 24 178 Northern Kentucky 74 154 Wright St. 78 67%   
Sat, Jan 24 248 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 74 213 Youngstown St. 79 67%   
Sat, Jan 24 255 Green Bay 70 200 Robert Morris 75 70%   
Sat, Jan 24 286 Detroit Mercy 81 139 Oakland 86 70%   
Sun, Jan 25 337 IU Indianapolis 83 212 Purdue Fort Wayne 88 69%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Oakland 1.8 50.5 32.2 10.2 4.2 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Wright St. 1.9 50.7 26.8 11.9 5.6 3.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Northern Kentucky 3.8 9.3 14.7 24.3 21.4 14.2 8.8 4.8 1.9 0.5 0.1
Robert Morris 4.7 2.8 7.5 15.7 20.0 21.0 16.3 9.8 4.7 1.7 0.5
Purdue Fort Wayne 3.3 14.3 18.4 26.7 18.1 11.7 6.6 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
Youngstown St. 7.2 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.2 9.7 13.6 19.0 23.3 18.9 6.6 0.8
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 6.9 0.1 0.9 3.1 7.1 11.6 16.9 21.2 19.4 14.8 4.5 0.4
Green Bay 5.1 2.1 5.6 13.2 17.4 19.2 18.1 13.2 7.4 3.2 0.5 0.0
Detroit Mercy 7.4 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.4 8.2 12.1 17.9 24.0 24.6 5.8 0.3
Cleveland St. 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.8 8.4 19.8 49.4 15.7
IU Indianapolis 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 5.6 26.4 66.3

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Oakland 14 - 6 17 - 13 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.2 7.9 16.1 24.0 25.4 16.6 5.7
Wright St. 14 - 6 17 - 12 0.1 0.3 1.5 4.6 9.4 16.6 22.1 21.0 15.6 7.3 1.6
Northern Kentucky 12 - 8 17 - 11 0.0 0.4 2.1 6.0 12.8 19.9 23.1 18.9 11.8 4.1 0.8
Robert Morris 11 - 9 17 - 12 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.6 12.3 20.4 23.8 19.8 11.4 3.9 0.7
Purdue Fort Wayne 12 - 8 15 - 13 0.1 1.0 3.8 9.7 17.4 22.4 21.1 14.7 7.2 2.3 0.4
Youngstown St. 9 - 11 13 - 15 0.1 0.6 2.8 8.0 16.0 22.1 22.3 16.0 8.9 2.8 0.4
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 9 - 11 12 - 18 0.2 1.5 5.5 12.4 19.9 23.1 19.3 12.0 4.8 1.2 0.1
Green Bay 11 - 9 14 - 15 0.4 2.4 8.0 16.1 22.0 22.4 16.2 8.8 3.1 0.7 0.1
Detroit Mercy 8 - 12 9 - 18 2.6 9.6 19.1 23.6 20.9 13.9 7.0 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
Cleveland St. 6 - 14 7 - 21 5.1 15.7 23.3 23.6 17.1 9.3 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
IU Indianapolis 4 - 16 6 - 23 8.6 24.1 28.6 22.2 11.4 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Oakland 50.5% 31.0 15.7 3.2 0.5 0.1
Wright St. 50.7% 32.8 14.4 3.0 0.5 0.1
Northern Kentucky 9.3% 3.6 3.6 1.7 0.4 0.1
Robert Morris 2.8% 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1
Purdue Fort Wayne 14.3% 6.5 5.0 2.2 0.4 0.1
Youngstown St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 2.1% 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1
Detroit Mercy 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cleveland St. 0.0% 0.0
IU Indianapolis


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Oakland 28.4% 28.4% 0.0% 15   0.1 1.9 8.5 12.0 5.6 0.3 71.6 0.0%
Wright St. 23.0% 23.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 3.9 9.5 7.9 1.1 77.0 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 14.9% 14.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.4 5.3 6.7 1.4 85.1 0.0%
Robert Morris 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.5 1.0 91.1 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 3.1 4.3 0.7 91.1 0.0%
Youngstown St. 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.3 2.6 94.2 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 96.3 0.0%
Green Bay 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.7 95.6 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.2 1.4 98.5 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.4% 1.0 2.6 97.4
2nd Round 2.7% 0.0 97.3 2.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Oakland 28.4% 0.0% 28.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wright St. 23.0% 0.2% 22.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 14.9% 0.2% 14.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 8.9% 0.2% 8.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 8.9% 0.1% 8.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 5.8% 1.5% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.7% 1.9% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 4.4% 0.7% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%