Horizon
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
181 Youngstown St. 16.1%   15   0 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 8 -1.5      -1.6 217 +0.1 165 72.0 82 -1.7 285 0.0 1
194 Wright St. 14.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 8 -2.1      +0.2 155 -2.3 256 68.4 192 0.0 121 0.0 1
208 Purdue Fort Wayne 12.6%   0 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 14 12 - 8 -2.6      -1.0 203 -1.6 212 74.1 55 -3.0 302 0.0 1
216 Robert Morris 12.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 12 11 - 8 -2.9      -2.0 225 -0.9 192 69.4 153 0.0 121 0.0 1
217 Oakland 12.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 16 11 - 9 -2.9      -0.1 169 -2.8 272 67.7 206 +10.1 17 0.0 1
219 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 11.2%   1 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 11 - 9 -3.1      -0.9 197 -2.2 245 71.9 84 +6.3 50 0.0 1
222 Cleveland St. 10.4%   0 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 15 11 - 9 -3.5      -0.9 193 -2.6 265 65.3 267 -5.9 324 0.0 1
266 Northern Kentucky 6.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 10 -5.6      -3.7 285 -1.8 228 65.3 270 0.0 121 0.0 1
312 Detroit Mercy 2.5%   0 - 1 0 - 0 9 - 17 7 - 12 -8.4      -4.8 314 -3.6 302 75.9 26 -9.2 334 0.0 1
319 Green Bay 2.1%   0 - 1 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 13 -8.9      -3.5 278 -5.3 340 71.7 90 +7.4 37 0.0 1
359 IU Indianapolis 0.3%   0 - 1 0 - 0 6 - 23 4 - 16 -14.2      -5.5 328 -8.7 363 77.8 13 +4.2 77 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Youngstown St. 3.9 22.4 16.2 14.1 11.9 9.3 8.4 6.2 5.0 3.7 2.0 0.7
Wright St. 4.2 19.6 15.3 12.7 11.4 10.0 8.6 7.4 6.3 4.7 2.9 1.1
Purdue Fort Wayne 4.4 16.4 14.7 12.9 11.9 10.8 9.3 8.2 6.7 4.9 3.1 1.2
Robert Morris 5.1 10.9 11.5 11.7 11.9 11.2 10.5 10.0 8.9 6.9 4.7 1.9
Oakland 4.6 15.3 13.5 12.5 11.7 11.0 9.5 8.7 7.4 5.4 3.7 1.3
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 4.6 14.6 13.2 12.6 11.5 11.1 10.2 8.8 7.4 5.7 3.5 1.4
Cleveland St. 4.9 12.6 12.4 12.3 11.4 11.0 10.4 9.2 8.2 6.4 4.3 1.7
Northern Kentucky 6.0 7.4 7.7 8.9 9.7 10.1 10.9 11.3 11.1 10.3 8.4 4.3
Detroit Mercy 7.6 1.7 2.8 4.0 5.6 7.1 9.0 11.8 13.9 16.7 17.0 10.4
Green Bay 7.7 1.9 2.8 4.1 5.3 6.9 8.7 10.8 13.3 16.1 18.2 11.9
IU Indianapolis 9.8 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.4 4.2 6.9 11.8 22.6 48.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Youngstown St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.6 5.0 6.4 8.4 10.2 11.1 11.4 10.7 9.8 7.7 5.6 3.2 1.6 0.5
Wright St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.5 6.3 7.4 8.7 10.1 11.0 10.6 9.8 8.7 7.0 4.7 2.8 1.3 0.2
Purdue Fort Wayne 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.9 3.3 4.9 6.5 8.3 9.6 11.0 11.0 10.9 9.6 8.1 5.8 4.0 2.2 0.9 0.2
Robert Morris 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.3 4.6 6.8 8.2 9.5 11.2 11.0 10.5 9.5 8.2 6.2 3.9 2.4 1.0 0.3
Oakland 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.4 3.7 5.2 7.2 8.6 10.0 10.9 10.6 10.3 9.1 7.4 5.9 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.2
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.9 5.3 7.2 8.9 10.5 10.9 10.8 10.4 8.9 7.2 5.0 3.5 1.7 0.8 0.1
Cleveland St. 11 - 9 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.9 4.5 6.0 7.5 9.4 10.6 11.0 10.5 9.6 8.6 7.0 4.8 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.2
Northern Kentucky 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.6 6.9 9.1 9.7 10.5 10.4 10.2 8.5 7.2 5.4 4.0 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0
Detroit Mercy 7 - 13 0.3 1.4 3.3 5.6 8.3 10.2 11.2 11.9 11.8 10.2 8.1 6.6 4.5 3.2 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
Green Bay 7 - 13 0.5 1.7 3.8 6.4 8.2 10.5 11.3 11.3 10.9 9.4 8.2 6.1 4.4 3.1 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
IU Indianapolis 4 - 16 5.0 10.4 14.8 15.6 14.4 12.2 9.3 6.8 4.7 3.0 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Youngstown St. 22.4% 15.6 5.2 1.2 0.3 0.0
Wright St. 19.6% 13.3 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 16.4% 10.7 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
Robert Morris 10.9% 6.7 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
Oakland 15.3% 10.1 4.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 14.6% 9.4 4.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
Cleveland St. 12.6% 8.2 3.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
Northern Kentucky 7.4% 4.5 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
Detroit Mercy 1.7% 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Green Bay 1.9% 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
IU Indianapolis 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Youngstown St. 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.2 4.5 4.0 3.1 83.9 0.0%
Wright St. 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.8 4.2 3.6 2.9 85.5 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 3.3 3.7 3.3 87.4 0.0%
Robert Morris 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2 3.3 3.4 2.3 88.0 0.0%
Oakland 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.5 3.3 3.0 2.5 87.8 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 3.1 3.0 2.1 88.8 0.0%
Cleveland St. 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 3.0 3.6 89.6 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.2 93.8 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 97.5 0.0%
Green Bay 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 97.9 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Youngstown St. 16.1% 1.5% 16.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wright St. 14.5% 1.4% 14.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 12.6% 1.7% 12.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 12.0% 1.1% 12.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 12.2% 1.5% 12.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 11.2% 1.3% 11.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 10.4% 2.1% 10.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 6.2% 1.2% 6.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 2.5% 1.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 2.1% 0.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 94.9% 1.0 5.1 90.5 4.5
2nd Round 4.6% 0.0 95.5 4.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0