Horizon
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
137 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 23.7%   15   7 - 4 2 - 0 19 - 10 14 - 6 +1.2      +2.5 105 -1.3 209 73.1 73 +2.6 128 +8.5 2
144 Purdue Fort Wayne 19.2%   7 - 4 2 - 1 18 - 11 13 - 7 +0.5      +3.6 83 -3.1 277 74.8 48 -0.4 174 -5.9 7
154 Wright St. 16.3%   5 - 6 1 - 2 17 - 12 12 - 8 +0.1      +3.0 98 -2.9 265 69.5 162 -1.3 187 -7.1 8
195 Youngstown St. 12.2%   6 - 5 3 - 0 17 - 12 13 - 7 -1.5      -3.7 279 +2.1 111 71.2 116 -1.0 182 +14.8 1
206 Oakland 9.4%   2 - 7 1 - 2 12 - 16 11 - 9 -2.1      -0.5 182 -1.6 221 59.3 358 -5.1 252 -4.2 5
214 Northern Kentucky 8.8%   4 - 6 2 - 0 14 - 15 11 - 9 -2.5      -3.2 266 +0.7 148 66.5 245 -4.4 240 +4.3 3
224 Cleveland St. 6.7%   5 - 6 2 - 1 14 - 14 11 - 9 -3.2      -2.9 254 -0.3 178 68.1 206 -2.9 216 +1.5 4
259 Robert Morris 2.8%   6 - 5 0 - 2 15 - 15 8 - 12 -5.3      -5.2 323 -0.1 171 70.4 142 -2.2 202 -17.0 10
323 Detroit Mercy 0.5%   4 - 8 1 - 2 10 - 20 7 - 13 -9.1      -5.2 319 -3.9 296 67.6 218 -5.5 260 -5.3 6
333 Green Bay 0.3%   2 - 10 0 - 3 7 - 23 5 - 15 -10.2      -3.8 287 -6.4 349 74.0 60 -12.6 336 -22.0 11
354 IU Indianapolis 0.1%   2 - 8 1 - 2 6 - 22 4 - 16 -12.8      -4.9 308 -7.9 360 65.0 280 -14.3 346 -10.2 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 2.5 40.6 20.6 13.7 9.8 6.5 4.6 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 3.5 20.5 18.8 15.9 14.5 11.0 9.1 6.1 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
Wright St. 4.1 12.3 15.9 16.2 15.8 13.5 11.5 8.2 4.5 1.7 0.4 0.1
Youngstown St. 3.1 26.8 21.3 16.2 12.6 9.5 7.0 4.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Oakland 4.9 6.9 10.4 12.2 14.2 14.9 14.8 12.7 8.4 4.0 1.3 0.3
Northern Kentucky 4.6 11.3 12.7 12.6 13.3 13.3 13.0 11.5 8.0 3.2 0.9 0.2
Cleveland St. 4.9 7.2 10.6 12.3 14.1 14.6 14.8 13.0 8.5 3.8 1.0 0.2
Robert Morris 7.1 1.1 2.3 3.9 5.9 8.1 12.2 16.3 22.6 16.4 7.8 3.5
Detroit Mercy 8.4 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.3 6.2 11.0 20.8 29.5 17.3 9.0
Green Bay 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 4.0 9.3 19.5 33.4 30.8
IU Indianapolis 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.9 7.5 17.3 33.1 37.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.1 6.8 10.6 13.7 15.5 15.4 13.2 9.4 5.3 1.9 0.5
Purdue Fort Wayne 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 5.3 8.5 11.6 15.1 15.7 14.6 11.9 7.3 3.8 1.4 0.3
Wright St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.1 7.2 10.9 14.3 16.1 16.1 13.1 8.6 4.5 1.6 0.3
Youngstown St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.6 6.5 10.2 13.2 15.6 15.7 13.6 9.7 5.7 2.7 0.8 0.1
Oakland 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.4 4.6 7.3 11.3 13.6 15.3 15.1 12.3 8.7 5.0 2.1 0.7 0.1
Northern Kentucky 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.9 6.8 9.7 12.7 14.2 13.9 12.6 9.9 6.7 3.9 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
Cleveland St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.0 4.5 7.5 11.0 13.9 15.4 15.0 12.0 8.6 5.1 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.0
Robert Morris 8 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 4.2 7.1 10.5 13.5 14.4 14.5 12.1 9.3 5.9 3.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Detroit Mercy 7 - 13 0.3 1.9 5.2 10.0 14.2 17.0 16.0 14.0 9.7 6.1 3.3 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 5 - 15 1.0 4.6 10.4 15.8 17.7 17.3 13.5 9.1 5.5 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
IU Indianapolis 4 - 16 4.8 12.8 18.9 20.3 16.5 11.8 7.5 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 40.6% 28.7 9.1 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 20.5% 12.4 5.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wright St. 12.3% 6.3 4.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Youngstown St. 26.8% 16.9 7.3 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oakland 6.9% 3.4 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northern Kentucky 11.3% 6.5 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cleveland St. 7.2% 3.6 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Robert Morris 1.1% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Detroit Mercy 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
IU Indianapolis 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 23.7% 23.7% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.1 6.7 9.0 4.9 0.8 76.3 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 19.2% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.3 7.2 5.6 1.1 80.8 0.0%
Wright St. 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 3.1 5.9 5.2 1.5 83.7 0.0%
Youngstown St. 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.7 4.7 2.2 87.9 0.0%
Oakland 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.6 3.3 90.6 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.5 2.8 91.2 0.0%
Cleveland St. 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.8 2.2 93.3 0.0%
Robert Morris 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.2 97.2 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%
Green Bay 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 23.7% 0.2% 23.6% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 19.2% 0.2% 19.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wright St. 16.3% 0.4% 16.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 12.2% 0.5% 11.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 9.4% 2.0% 8.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 8.8% 1.3% 8.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 6.7% 0.8% 6.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 2.8% 0.6% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.0% 1.0 3.0 97.0
2nd Round 5.8% 0.1 94.2 5.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0