Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.4 #154
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 #175
Pace 66.5 #248
Improvement -1.0 #237

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #129 C B- C C C
Defense #209 C C C+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #86 1.13 #204 +1.5 #124
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #132 0.84 #71 +1.7 #94
Three Pointers 35% #302 1.04 #151 -2.5 #273
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #157 +0.7 #158
Freethrows 17.4 #181 74% #144 12.9 #162
Second Chance 30.3% #192 1.20 #30 0.36 #95
Turnovers 16.6% #189
Total Offense +1.4 #129

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #34 1.13 #145 -3.1 #285
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #113 0.84 #303 -1.6 #304
Three Pointers 33% #352 0.96 #111 +5.0 #21
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #168 +0.3 #167
Freethrows 17.5 #198 74% #221 12.9 #205
Second Chance 32.0% #250 1.02 #151 0.33 #205
Turnovers 17.1% #140
Total Defense -1.1 #209

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #194 0.5% #209
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.5% #156 -1.1% #159
Possession Length 18.5 #295 17.1 #149
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #290 0.16 #160
Improvement +3.5 #24 -4.5 #354

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.3% 24.5% 20.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 95.5% 97.9% 90.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 99.1%
Conference Champion 50.7% 59.9% 31.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round23.2% 24.5% 20.7%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Kentucky (Home) - 67.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 65 - 9
Quad 414 - 419 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 75 @California L 67 - 77 17% -6  0 - 1 +1 +0 F B+ A+ +1 C+ A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 166 Toledo L 71 - 81 65% -4  0 - 2 -14 -3 B- B- F -11 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 253 Radford W 92 - 59 70% +13  1 - 2 +28 +11 A C+ C +15 A- A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 148 Kent St. L 72 - 76 OT 48% +2  1 - 3 -3 -7 F C C+ +4 A+ D- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 332 @Stetson W 79 - 62 78% +15  2 - 3 +9 +9 A- A- F +2 B- F B-
 Fri, Nov 28 59 @Butler L 69 - 94 13% -5  2 - 4 -12 -4 C C- D+ -7 F D- D+
 Wed, Dec 3 213 @Youngstown St. L 68 - 69 52% -0  2 - 5 0 - 1 -1 -4 C D+ C +3 B- F A+
 Sun, Dec 7 255 Green Bay W 86 - 58 79% +12  3 - 5 1 - 1 +20 +9 D+ A+ B- +12 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 163 @Marshall L 74 - 76 41% +1  3 - 6 +1 +10 B+ D- A+ -9 C F D+
 Tue, Dec 16 89 Miami (OH) L 76 - 83 38% -8  3 - 7 -4 +0 D- C- A -3 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 198 Eastern Michigan W 70 - 64 72% +1  4 - 7 +0 -2 C+ F F +3 B A C
 Mon, Dec 29 139 Oakland W 88 - 73 58% +14  5 - 7 2 - 1 +13 +9 A+ C F +4 A A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 248 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 70 78% +7  6 - 7 3 - 1 -2 +4 F B+ A- -5 C B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 337 @IU Indianapolis W 81 - 77 79% +5  7 - 7 4 - 1 -4 +6 D+ A+ F -10 D- C C+
 Fri, Jan 9 286 @Detroit Mercy W 84 - 82 67% +6  8 - 7 5 - 1 -2 +8 B D- F -10 C- F C-
 Sun, Jan 11 139 @Oakland W 94 - 84 35% +17  9 - 7 6 - 1 +14 +15 A+ D- F -1 C A+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 213 Youngstown St. W 93 - 83 74% +5  10 - 7 7 - 1 +4 +23 C A+ A+ -19 C- F F
 Wed, Jan 21 316 Cleveland St. L 79 - 85 88% +0  10 - 8 7 - 2 -18 -2 F B- A+ -16 F C F
 Sat, Jan 24 178 Northern Kentucky W 79 - 74 67%
 Fri, Jan 30 248 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77 - 75 59%
 Sun, Feb 1 255 @Green Bay W 74 - 72 59%
 Wed, Feb 4 200 @Robert Morris L 73 - 74 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 212 Purdue Fort Wayne W 79 - 72 73%
 Thu, Feb 12 286 Detroit Mercy W 81 - 70 84%
 Sun, Feb 15 316 @Cleveland St. W 82 - 75 74%
 Thu, Feb 19 337 IU Indianapolis W 90 - 75 92%
 Sun, Feb 22 200 Robert Morris W 77 - 71 71%
 Wed, Feb 25 212 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 76 - 75 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 178 @Northern Kentucky L 76 - 77 44%
Totals 17 - 12 14 - 6 +0 +1 C B- C -1 C C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 9.1 16.1 14.9 7.3 1.5 50.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 8.3 10.9 5.2 1.0 26.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.2 6.2 1.3 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 3.4 0.8 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.7 2.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.2 9.6 17.0 21.3 21.4 16.0 7.3 1.5 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.5    1.5
17-3 100.0% 7.3    6.9 0.4
16-4 93.6% 14.9    12.0 2.9 0.0
15-5 75.5% 16.1    9.5 6.0 0.6 0.0
14-6 42.5% 9.1    2.9 4.2 1.7 0.2
13-7 10.2% 1.7    0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
12-8 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 50.7% 50.7 33.0 14.1 3.0 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.5% 38.5% 38.5% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9
17-3 7.3% 34.8% 34.8% 13.3 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.1 4.8
16-4 16.0% 29.3% 29.3% 13.9 0.1 1.2 2.6 0.8 0.0 11.3
15-5 21.4% 25.8% 25.8% 14.2 0.0 0.8 3.0 1.7 0.1 15.9
14-6 21.3% 22.3% 22.3% 14.5 0.3 2.0 2.3 0.1 16.6
13-7 17.0% 18.8% 18.8% 14.7 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.3 13.8
12-8 9.6% 15.2% 15.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.3 8.2
11-9 4.2% 10.5% 10.5% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.8
10-10 1.4% 5.5% 5.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.3
9-11 0.3% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.3% 23.3% 0.0% 14.2 76.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 12.4 3.4 56.0 35.3 5.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%