Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#173
Expected Predictive Rating-0.1#177
Pace70.0#173
Improvement+1.7#57

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#109
First Shot+4.2#67
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#270
Layup/Dunks+3.5#70
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#137
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#137
Freethrows-1.5#261
Improvement-0.2#199

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#297
First Shot-2.5#257
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#264
Layups/Dunks-4.0#318
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#59
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#335
Freethrows+4.9#6
Improvement+1.9#40
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 4.5% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.4 13.9
.500 or above 56.8% 75.7% 48.7%
.500 or above in Conference 60.5% 70.0% 56.4%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.8% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.6% 1.6% 3.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round3.4% 4.5% 2.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Away) - 29.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 66 - 10
Quad 49 - 314 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 165 South Alabama L 74-76 60%     0 - 1 -5.7 +5.6 -11.5
  Sat, Nov 8 170 Marshall L 73-85 61%     0 - 2 -16.0 -2.3 -13.5
  Tue, Nov 11 160 @Wright St. W 81-71 36%     1 - 2 +12.7 +14.6 -1.4
  Sat, Nov 15 313 Detroit Mercy W 90-83 83%     2 - 2 -4.4 +3.7 -8.7
  Wed, Nov 19 178 Youngstown St. W 92-75 63%     3 - 2 +12.6 +12.7 -1.1
  Mon, Nov 24 146 Troy W 75-68 43%     4 - 2 +7.8 +4.6 +3.3
  Wed, Nov 26 88 Belmont L 72-87 25%     4 - 3 -9.2 +1.2 -10.1
  Sat, Dec 6 141 @Oakland L 81-87 30%    
  Sat, Dec 13 183 @Robert Morris L 74-76 40%    
  Tue, Dec 16 10 @Michigan St. L 62-85 2%    
  Tue, Dec 30 267 Western Michigan W 82-74 77%    
  Sat, Jan 3 309 @Central Michigan W 78-74 65%    
  Tue, Jan 6 330 @Northern Illinois W 82-76 70%    
  Fri, Jan 9 127 Miami (OH) L 80-81 47%    
  Tue, Jan 13 194 Ohio W 83-79 65%    
  Sat, Jan 17 122 @Kent St. L 81-88 26%    
  Tue, Jan 20 175 @Massachusetts L 78-81 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 119 Bowling Green L 76-77 46%    
  Tue, Jan 27 54 @Akron L 79-93 11%    
  Sat, Jan 31 316 Ball St. W 78-68 83%    
  Tue, Feb 3 122 Kent St. L 84-85 46%    
  Wed, Feb 11 267 @Western Michigan W 79-77 57%    
  Sat, Feb 14 119 @Bowling Green L 73-80 26%    
  Sat, Feb 21 203 Eastern Michigan W 77-72 65%    
  Tue, Feb 24 330 Northern Illinois W 85-73 84%    
  Sat, Feb 28 194 @Ohio L 80-82 43%    
  Fri, Mar 6 215 Buffalo W 80-75 67%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 9 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.3 1.7 2.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.5 2.7 4.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.3 5.8 2.7 0.4 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.3 2.6 6.1 3.2 0.3 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 2.2 6.6 3.7 0.5 13.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.4 4.5 0.5 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.7 0.9 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.2 2.6 4.0 1.2 0.0 8.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 3.0 1.4 0.1 5.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.9 1.2 0.1 4.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 4.4 7.5 10.4 13.8 14.8 14.2 12.6 9.2 5.6 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 82.0% 0.2    0.2 0.1
15-3 48.6% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 19.3% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 16.9% 16.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.2% 16.9% 16.9% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-4 2.7% 11.8% 11.8% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.4
13-5 5.6% 8.7% 8.7% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.1
12-6 9.2% 7.3% 7.3% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 8.5
11-7 12.6% 5.0% 5.0% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 11.9
10-8 14.2% 3.1% 3.1% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 13.7
9-9 14.8% 2.9% 2.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 14.3
8-10 13.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.6
7-11 10.4% 10.4
6-12 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.5
5-13 4.4% 4.4
4-14 2.1% 2.1
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.1 96.6 0.0%