Toledo
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#248
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#179
Pace70.6#108
Improvement-3.3#316

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#95
First Shot+1.3#131
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#79
Layup/Dunks+2.6#89
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#346
Freethrows+0.0#172
Improvement+0.4#174

Defense
Total Defense-7.8#354
First Shot-6.6#346
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#287
Layups/Dunks-6.9#360
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#288
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#253
Freethrows+2.9#26
Improvement-3.7#334
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 8.5% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.3 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round3.1% 8.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 34 - 55 - 11
Quad 412 - 417 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 101   @ Troy L 74-84 14%     0 - 1 -2.9 +1.8 -4.1
  Nov 09, 2024 167   @ Marshall W 90-80 25%     1 - 1 +12.3 +11.7 -0.2
  Nov 13, 2024 229   Wright St. W 86-77 57%     2 - 1 +2.6 +3.8 -1.5
  Nov 16, 2024 337   @ Detroit Mercy W 82-67 65%     3 - 1 +6.2 +4.1 +1.6
  Nov 21, 2024 350   Stetson W 103-78 79%     4 - 1 +11.9 +16.9 -6.2
  Nov 22, 2024 124   Jacksonville St. W 82-80 25%     5 - 1 +4.3 +15.6 -11.2
  Nov 23, 2024 47   UC San Diego L 45-80 8%     5 - 2 -23.7 -19.9 -5.1
  Nov 30, 2024 185   Oakland L 52-85 47%     5 - 3 -37.1 -18.6 -21.9
  Dec 14, 2024 200   @ Youngstown St. L 87-93 30%     5 - 4 -5.2 +14.3 -19.4
  Dec 18, 2024 4   @ Houston L 49-78 1%     5 - 5 -3.4 -11.7 +8.8
  Dec 29, 2024 16   @ Purdue L 64-83 2%     5 - 6 +1.0 +0.1 +0.2
  Jan 04, 2025 296   @ Western Michigan W 76-70 51%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +1.0 -3.3 +4.0
  Jan 07, 2025 274   Eastern Michigan W 90-87 66%     7 - 6 2 - 0 -6.1 +3.9 -10.3
  Jan 10, 2025 219   Central Michigan W 69-67 54%     8 - 6 3 - 0 -3.9 +0.2 -3.9
  Jan 14, 2025 112   @ Akron L 78-85 15%     8 - 7 3 - 1 -0.7 +4.7 -5.2
  Jan 18, 2025 271   @ Ball St. W 93-75 45%     9 - 7 4 - 1 +14.6 +26.1 -9.7
  Jan 21, 2025 133   Kent St. L 64-83 36%     9 - 8 4 - 2 -20.0 -0.3 -22.3
  Jan 24, 2025 283   @ Bowling Green W 84-71 48%     10 - 8 5 - 2 +8.6 +10.3 -1.8
  Jan 28, 2025 186   @ Ohio W 86-83 28%     11 - 8 6 - 2 +4.4 +7.9 -3.7
  Feb 01, 2025 347   Northern Illinois W 89-85 84%     12 - 8 7 - 2 -11.2 +4.6 -16.1
  Feb 04, 2025 346   Buffalo W 87-74 83%     13 - 8 8 - 2 -2.1 +6.8 -9.1
  Feb 08, 2025 165   James Madison W 72-69 43%     14 - 8 -0.1 +7.9 -7.4
  Feb 11, 2025 160   @ Miami (OH) L 80-92 24%     14 - 9 8 - 3 -9.2 +5.8 -14.6
  Feb 15, 2025 274   @ Eastern Michigan L 73-80 46%     14 - 10 8 - 4 -10.6 +1.5 -12.5
  Feb 18, 2025 271   Ball St. W 67-66 66%     15 - 10 9 - 4 -7.9 -2.0 -5.7
  Feb 21, 2025 283   Bowling Green L 68-69 69%     15 - 11 9 - 5 -10.9 -6.1 -4.8
  Feb 25, 2025 133   @ Kent St. L 65-105 19%     15 - 12 9 - 6 -35.5 -4.3 -31.7
  Mar 01, 2025 346   @ Buffalo L 74-87 68%     15 - 13 9 - 7 -22.6 +2.1 -25.5
  Mar 04, 2025 112   Akron L 87-96 30%     15 - 14 9 - 8 -8.2 +10.0 -17.8
  Mar 07, 2025 186   Ohio W 96-82 48%     16 - 14 10 - 8 +9.9 +19.7 -9.9
  Mar 13, 2025 186   Ohio L 82-85 37%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 100.0% 3.2% 3.2% 15.3 0.1 2.0 1.1 96.8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.3 0.1 2.0 1.1 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.2% 100.0% 15.3 3.7 61.5 34.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 28.1%
Lose Out 62.0%