Toledo
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#201
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#137
Pace72.5#78
Improvement-0.8#229

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#82
First Shot+1.6#128
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#76
Layup/Dunks+2.7#86
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#343
Freethrows+0.0#171
Improvement+1.0#131

Defense
Total Defense-5.4#328
First Shot-4.5#314
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#267
Layups/Dunks-5.9#354
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#272
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#225
Freethrows+3.0#21
Improvement-1.8#279
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.6% 8.9% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 94.3% 96.0% 80.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.7% 97.0%
Conference Champion 4.4% 4.9% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.9%
First Round8.5% 8.8% 6.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Home) - 88.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 35 - 45 - 10
Quad 413 - 319 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 111   @ Troy L 74-84 23%     0 - 1 -4.2 +0.4 -3.9
  Nov 09, 2024 182   @ Marshall W 90-80 37%     1 - 1 +11.4 +11.2 -0.6
  Nov 13, 2024 196   Wright St. W 86-77 58%     2 - 1 +4.9 +6.0 -1.4
  Nov 16, 2024 323   @ Detroit Mercy W 82-67 70%     3 - 1 +7.5 +5.5 +1.5
  Nov 21, 2024 334   Stetson W 103-78 81%     4 - 1 +13.8 +17.5 -4.9
  Nov 22, 2024 130   Jacksonville St. W 82-80 36%     5 - 1 +3.8 +14.3 -10.4
  Nov 23, 2024 65   UC San Diego L 45-80 17%     5 - 2 -26.8 -21.5 -6.6
  Nov 30, 2024 188   Oakland L 52-85 57%     5 - 3 -36.8 -18.3 -21.9
  Dec 14, 2024 219   @ Youngstown St. L 87-93 45%     5 - 4 -6.8 +13.8 -20.4
  Dec 18, 2024 3   @ Houston L 49-78 1%     5 - 5 -3.8 -11.4 +8.1
  Dec 29, 2024 9   @ Purdue L 64-83 3%     5 - 6 +1.4 +2.2 -1.5
  Jan 04, 2025 306   @ Western Michigan W 76-70 65%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +0.1 -3.4 +3.3
  Jan 07, 2025 300   Eastern Michigan W 90-87 78%     7 - 6 2 - 0 -7.2 +3.9 -11.4
  Jan 10, 2025 225   Central Michigan W 69-67 65%     8 - 6 3 - 0 -4.0 +1.8 -5.6
  Jan 14, 2025 100   @ Akron L 78-85 19%     8 - 7 3 - 1 +0.2 +6.3 -5.9
  Jan 18, 2025 255   @ Ball St. W 93-75 54%     9 - 7 4 - 1 +15.0 +25.3 -8.6
  Jan 21, 2025 148   Kent St. L 64-83 48%     9 - 8 4 - 2 -20.5 +2.4 -25.4
  Jan 24, 2025 312   @ Bowling Green W 84-71 66%     10 - 8 5 - 2 +6.9 +7.1 -0.3
  Jan 28, 2025 168   @ Ohio W 86-83 33%     11 - 8 6 - 2 +5.4 +8.9 -3.6
  Feb 01, 2025 338   Northern Illinois W 89-85 87%     12 - 8 7 - 2 -10.1 +4.6 -15.0
  Feb 04, 2025 342   Buffalo W 88-76 89%    
  Feb 08, 2025 137   James Madison L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 11, 2025 173   @ Miami (OH) L 79-83 33%    
  Feb 15, 2025 300   @ Eastern Michigan W 83-80 60%    
  Feb 18, 2025 255   Ball St. W 83-77 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 312   Bowling Green W 86-77 81%    
  Feb 25, 2025 148   @ Kent St. L 70-75 29%    
  Mar 01, 2025 342   @ Buffalo W 85-78 73%    
  Mar 04, 2025 100   Akron L 82-86 38%    
  Mar 07, 2025 168   Ohio W 83-82 53%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.5 2.0 0.7 4.4 1st
2nd 0.3 3.1 9.7 10.0 3.2 0.2 26.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 9.1 18.7 14.4 3.5 0.3 47.0 3rd
4th 0.4 4.4 7.6 2.7 0.2 15.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 2.5 0.9 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.6 2.8 8.4 17.9 24.5 24.6 14.9 5.5 0.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 77.3% 0.7    0.3 0.4
15-3 36.7% 2.0    0.7 1.1 0.2
14-4 9.9% 1.5    0.2 0.9 0.4
13-5 1.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 1.2 2.5 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.9% 20.5% 20.5% 13.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
15-3 5.5% 14.6% 14.6% 14.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 4.7
14-4 14.9% 12.5% 12.5% 14.6 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 13.0
13-5 24.6% 9.5% 9.5% 14.9 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.4 22.3
12-6 24.5% 8.5% 8.5% 15.2 0.2 1.2 0.7 22.4
11-7 17.9% 5.6% 5.6% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 16.9
10-8 8.4% 3.6% 3.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.1
9-9 2.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 2.8
8-10 0.6% 0.6
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 14.9 0.1 0.3 1.9 4.5 1.8 91.4 0.0%