Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.9#15
Expected Predictive Rating+18.7#6
Pace70.0#131
Improvement+2.2#84

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#26
First Shot+5.6#47
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#47
Layup/Dunks+6.7#11
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#82
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.0#355
Freethrows+4.2#6
Improvement+0.5#157

Defense
Total Defense+9.1#7
First Shot+7.2#16
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#52
Layups/Dunks+6.0#24
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#124
Freethrows+2.2#49
Improvement+1.7#97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
#1 Seed 5.6% 8.3% 3.1%
Top 2 Seed 22.7% 32.0% 14.3%
Top 4 Seed 63.8% 75.6% 53.1%
Top 6 Seed 87.4% 94.7% 80.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.9% 99.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.6% 99.9% 99.3%
Average Seed 4.1 3.5 4.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 45.7% 58.6% 34.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round99.6% 99.9% 99.3%
Second Round86.1% 89.6% 82.9%
Sweet Sixteen49.8% 55.4% 44.6%
Elite Eight23.3% 27.2% 19.9%
Final Four10.2% 12.2% 8.3%
Championship Game4.2% 5.1% 3.4%
National Champion1.7% 2.1% 1.3%

Next Game: UCLA (Away) - 47.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 7
Quad 26 - 115 - 8
Quad 35 - 020 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 253   Monmouth W 81-57 98%     1 - 0 +16.2 +1.8 +13.6
  Nov 07, 2024 316   Niagara W 96-60 99%     2 - 0 +24.4 +15.9 +8.1
  Nov 12, 2024 7   Kansas L 69-77 42%     2 - 1 +11.0 -0.5 +12.4
  Nov 16, 2024 312   Bowling Green W 86-72 99%     3 - 1 +2.9 +6.1 -3.3
  Nov 19, 2024 109   Samford W 83-75 92%     4 - 1 +9.4 +8.2 +1.1
  Nov 25, 2024 98   Colorado W 72-56 87%     5 - 1 +20.9 +3.8 +17.3
  Nov 26, 2024 41   Memphis L 63-71 69%     5 - 2 +3.7 +3.4 -0.6
  Nov 27, 2024 36   North Carolina W 94-91 OT 66%     6 - 2 +15.7 +15.4 -0.1
  Dec 04, 2024 92   @ Minnesota W 90-72 79%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +26.5 +29.8 -1.7
  Dec 07, 2024 48   Nebraska W 89-52 80%     8 - 2 2 - 0 +45.1 +20.4 +24.3
  Dec 17, 2024 188   Oakland W 77-58 95%     9 - 2 +17.7 +10.4 +9.2
  Dec 21, 2024 106   Florida Atlantic W 86-69 91%     10 - 2 +18.7 +6.5 +11.2
  Dec 30, 2024 306   Western Michigan W 80-62 99%     11 - 2 +7.2 -1.1 +7.6
  Jan 03, 2025 25   @ Ohio St. W 69-62 49%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +24.1 +5.7 +18.5
  Jan 09, 2025 89   Washington W 88-54 89%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +37.8 +15.7 +21.1
  Jan 12, 2025 56   @ Northwestern W 78-68 67%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +22.3 +13.0 +9.5
  Jan 15, 2025 50   Penn St. W 90-85 81%     15 - 2 6 - 0 +12.7 +16.9 -4.3
  Jan 19, 2025 13   Illinois W 80-78 59%     16 - 2 7 - 0 +16.7 +10.7 +5.9
  Jan 25, 2025 63   @ Rutgers W 81-74 70%     17 - 2 8 - 0 +18.4 +11.2 +6.9
  Jan 28, 2025 92   Minnesota W 73-51 89%     18 - 2 9 - 0 +25.6 +13.1 +15.7
  Feb 01, 2025 54   @ USC L 64-70 67%     18 - 3 9 - 1 +6.4 -1.1 +7.3
  Feb 04, 2025 29   @ UCLA W 70-69 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 45   Oregon W 78-70 78%    
  Feb 11, 2025 53   Indiana W 79-70 82%    
  Feb 15, 2025 13   @ Illinois L 77-80 38%    
  Feb 18, 2025 9   Purdue W 73-72 58%    
  Feb 21, 2025 18   @ Michigan L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 26, 2025 16   @ Maryland L 73-75 40%    
  Mar 02, 2025 17   Wisconsin W 77-74 63%    
  Mar 06, 2025 60   @ Iowa W 84-79 67%    
  Mar 09, 2025 18   Michigan W 77-74 63%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.0 11.8 16.4 11.1 3.7 0.7 45.7 1st
2nd 0.9 8.7 10.1 2.3 0.2 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.8 8.0 1.3 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.9 1.6 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 2.8 0.2 5.2 5th
6th 0.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 0.8 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.3 6.4 12.8 20.6 23.2 18.7 11.2 3.7 0.7 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7
18-2 100.0% 3.7    3.7 0.0
17-3 98.7% 11.1    10.0 1.1
16-4 87.5% 16.4    10.9 5.1 0.4
15-5 51.0% 11.8    3.1 5.7 2.5 0.5
14-6 9.9% 2.0    0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 45.7% 45.7 28.4 12.3 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 25.8% 74.2% 1.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.7% 100.0% 24.0% 76.0% 1.8 1.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-3 11.2% 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 2.2 2.0 5.3 3.2 0.7 0.1 100.0%
16-4 18.7% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 2.8 1.4 6.0 7.1 3.4 0.7 0.1 100.0%
15-5 23.2% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 3.7 0.5 2.8 7.2 7.9 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 20.6% 100.0% 12.4% 87.5% 4.7 0.1 0.6 3.0 5.7 6.0 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 99.9%
13-7 12.8% 99.8% 9.1% 90.8% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.8 3.6 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 99.8%
12-8 6.4% 99.2% 4.7% 94.5% 7.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.2%
11-9 2.3% 93.1% 3.5% 89.6% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 92.8%
10-10 0.4% 80.5% 2.4% 78.0% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 80.0%
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.7% 16.0% 83.7% 4.1 5.6 17.1 21.7 19.4 14.0 9.6 6.6 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 99.6%