Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.4#16
Expected Predictive Rating+23.3#10
Pace66.2#268
Improvement-1.8#295

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#47
First Shot+3.3#84
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#23
Layup/Dunks+1.4#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#67
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#259
Freethrows+1.9#75
Improvement-0.8#238

Defense
Total Defense+10.6#7
First Shot+6.3#27
After Offensive Rebounds+4.3#2
Layups/Dunks+10.3#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#302
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#306
Freethrows+1.2#97
Improvement-1.0#260
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
#1 Seed 5.0% 5.0% 2.1%
Top 2 Seed 17.0% 17.3% 7.9%
Top 4 Seed 58.9% 59.5% 37.8%
Top 6 Seed 87.2% 87.7% 71.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.2% 99.3% 98.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.2% 99.2% 98.3%
Average Seed 4.3 4.2 5.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.1% 95.3% 90.3%
Conference Champion 5.8% 5.9% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 1.7%
First Round99.0% 99.0% 97.9%
Second Round84.0% 84.3% 72.7%
Sweet Sixteen47.8% 48.2% 34.8%
Elite Eight20.6% 20.8% 13.2%
Final Four8.6% 8.7% 4.5%
Championship Game3.6% 3.6% 1.6%
National Champion1.3% 1.3% 0.4%

Next Game: Cornell (Home) - 97.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 7
Quad 26 - 115 - 8
Quad 35 - 019 - 9
Quad 45 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 181 Colgate W 80-69 97%     1 - 0 +6.5 +5.2 +1.4
  Sat, Nov 8 23 Arkansas W 69-66 69%     2 - 0 +15.2 +2.2 +13.2
  Thu, Nov 13 197 San Jose St. W 79-60 97%     3 - 0 +13.7 +6.7 +8.1
  Tue, Nov 18 20 Kentucky W 83-66 55%     4 - 0 +33.2 +16.9 +16.0
  Fri, Nov 21 296 Detroit Mercy W 84-56 99%     5 - 0 +17.8 +7.5 +10.8
  Tue, Nov 25 271 East Carolina W 89-56 97%     6 - 0 +27.1 +13.4 +12.7
  Thu, Nov 27 21 North Carolina W 74-58 55%     7 - 0 +32.0 +20.7 +13.8
  Tue, Dec 2 18 Iowa W 71-52 65%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +32.5 +18.6 +17.7
  Sat, Dec 6 4 Duke L 60-66 44%     8 - 1 +12.9 +2.1 +10.2
  Sat, Dec 13 126 @Penn St. W 76-72 87%     9 - 1 2 - 0 +9.3 +4.7 +4.6
  Tue, Dec 16 170 Toledo W 92-69 96%     10 - 1 +19.3 +12.2 +6.6
  Sat, Dec 20 137 Oakland W 79-70 92%     11 - 1 +10.7 +5.5 +5.5
  Mon, Dec 29 159 Cornell W 90-70 97%    
  Fri, Jan 2 25 @Nebraska L 70-71 47%    
  Mon, Jan 5 38 USC W 78-70 78%    
  Thu, Jan 8 57 Northwestern W 76-65 85%    
  Tue, Jan 13 29 Indiana W 73-67 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 48 @Washington W 72-68 63%    
  Tue, Jan 20 56 @Oregon W 74-69 69%    
  Sat, Jan 24 94 Maryland W 79-64 91%    
  Tue, Jan 27 147 @Rutgers W 75-62 89%    
  Fri, Jan 30 1 Michigan L 71-77 28%    
  Wed, Feb 4 96 @Minnesota W 70-61 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 10 Illinois W 74-73 52%    
  Fri, Feb 13 46 @Wisconsin W 74-71 62%    
  Tue, Feb 17 30 UCLA W 73-67 71%    
  Sun, Feb 22 31 Ohio St. W 75-69 72%    
  Thu, Feb 26 5 @Purdue L 67-74 25%    
  Sun, Mar 1 29 @Indiana L 70-71 49%    
  Thu, Mar 5 147 Rutgers W 78-59 96%    
  Sun, Mar 8 1 @Michigan L 68-80 13%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.9 5.5 2.7 0.3 13.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.7 7.4 2.9 0.3 17.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 5.2 7.3 2.7 0.2 0.0 16.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.4 6.6 3.0 0.2 13.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 5.3 3.2 0.3 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.5 3.3 0.5 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 3.0 0.8 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.1 0.1 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 5.7 9.7 13.5 16.8 17.4 14.4 9.8 5.1 2.1 0.5 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 85.5% 1.8    1.1 0.6 0.1
17-3 40.1% 2.0    0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0
16-4 12.4% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 2.6 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.1% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 1.7 0.9 0.9 0.2 100.0%
17-3 5.1% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 2.0 1.4 2.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.8% 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 2.5 1.3 3.7 3.7 1.0 0.1 100.0%
15-5 14.4% 100.0% 7.9% 92.1% 3.1 0.7 3.0 6.3 3.6 0.8 0.1 100.0%
14-6 17.4% 100.0% 4.9% 95.1% 3.7 0.2 1.5 5.6 6.7 2.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 16.8% 100.0% 3.0% 97.0% 4.4 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.8 5.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 13.5% 100.0% 2.5% 97.5% 5.1 0.1 0.9 2.9 5.0 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 9.7% 99.9% 0.9% 99.0% 6.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.3 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-10 5.7% 99.1% 0.8% 98.4% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
9-11 3.0% 95.1% 0.6% 94.6% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 95.1%
8-12 1.4% 81.6% 81.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 81.6%
7-13 0.4% 50.0% 0.9% 49.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 49.6%
6-14 0.1% 15.2% 15.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15.2%
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.2% 5.2% 94.0% 4.3 5.0 12.0 21.0 20.9 17.2 11.1 5.9 3.0 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.8 99.2%