Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +20.0 #11
Expected Predictive Rating +22.5 #10
Pace 66.5 #250
Improvement +1.3 #115

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #50 B- A+ C B D+
Defense #1 A+ A+ B- A- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #179 1.27 #72 +2.0 #106
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #96 0.77 #157 +1.8 #92
Three Pointers 37% #270 1.08 #97 -1.0 #214
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #101 +2.8 #104
Freethrows 19.8 #61 74% #157 14.6 #66
Second Chance 40.3% #6 1.11 #108 0.45 #19
Turnovers 16.9% #210
Total Offense +6.5 #50

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #342 0.94 #8 +8.1 #7
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #129 0.67 #53 +0.5 #159
Three Pointers 48% #30 0.88 #40 -0.3 #192
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #9 +8.2 #9
Freethrows 13.6 #27 72% #127 9.7 #23
Second Chance 19.3% #1 0.70 #1 0.13 #1
Turnovers 17.7% #96
Total Defense +13.5 #1

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #260 -1.4% #67
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.6% #78 -14.9% #6
Possession Length 16.5 #97 18.9 #349
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.31 #4 0.15 #112
Improvement -0.3 #194 +1.6 #83

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.9% 1.9% 0.4%
#1 Seed 13.0% 13.4% 5.9%
Top 2 Seed 37.4% 38.2% 19.9%
Top 4 Seed 85.8% 86.5% 70.3%
Top 6 Seed 99.0% 99.0% 97.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 3.0 3.0 3.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 16.6% 17.2% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round95.1% 95.3% 91.0%
Sweet Sixteen63.9% 64.2% 58.3%
Elite Eight33.9% 34.2% 27.7%
Final Four17.4% 17.6% 12.9%
Championship Game8.4% 8.6% 4.6%
National Champion4.0% 4.1% 2.1%

Next Game: Maryland (Home) - 95.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b6 - 110 - 6
Quad 27 - 017 - 7
Quad 34 - 021 - 7
Quad 46 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 199 Colgate W 80 - 69 98% +6  1 - 0 +5 +4 F A+ C +2 D A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 8 20 Arkansas W 69 - 66 71% +2  2 - 0 +17 +2 D- B+ D +15 A+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 13 238 San Jose St. W 79 - 60 99% +14  3 - 0 +12 +5 D B- A+ +7 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 25 Kentucky W 83 - 66 65% +11  4 - 0 +33 +16 A+ C+ C- +17 A+ A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 21 286 Detroit Mercy W 84 - 56 99% +16  5 - 0 +18 +7 D A+ F +11 C+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 267 East Carolina W 89 - 56 98% +22  6 - 0 +27 +13 A- A B +13 C A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 31 North Carolina W 74 - 58 71% +4  7 - 0 +30 +18 A+ A+ D- +15 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 23 Iowa W 71 - 52 73% +12  8 - 0 1 - 0 +32 +19 D A+ D+ +17 A+ A+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 3 Duke L 60 - 66 53% -0  8 - 1 +13 +2 F C+ A+ +11 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 116 @Penn St. W 76 - 72 90% +1  9 - 1 2 - 0 +10 +5 C B+ F +5 A A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 166 Toledo W 92 - 69 98% +20  10 - 1 +19 +12 B+ A+ F +6 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 139 Oakland W 79 - 70 95% +4  11 - 1 +10 +5 D- A C- +6 C A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 187 Cornell W 114 - 97 98% +6  12 - 1 +12 +15 A C+ C -5 C- A+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 14 @Nebraska L 56 - 58 46% -1  12 - 2 2 - 1 +19 -1 C B F +20 A+ A+ C
 Mon, Jan 5 48 USC W 80 - 51 87% +14  13 - 2 3 - 1 +37 +11 A+ D+ C+ +26 A+ A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 60 Northwestern W 76 - 66 90% +0  14 - 2 4 - 1 +16 +8 B- A+ F +9 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 37 Indiana W 81 - 60 82% +5  15 - 2 5 - 1 +31 +18 A+ A+ F +15 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 47 @Washington W 80 - 63 72% +8  16 - 2 6 - 1 +31 +17 B+ A+ A+ +15 B- A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 20 68 @Oregon W 68 - 52 80% +4  17 - 2 7 - 1 +27 +12 A+ B F +18 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 100 Maryland W 78 - 60 95%
 Tue, Jan 27 115 @Rutgers W 75 - 61 90%
 Fri, Jan 30 1 Michigan L 73 - 75 42%
 Wed, Feb 4 71 @Minnesota W 69 - 60 80%
 Sat, Feb 7 9 Illinois W 73 - 70 60%
 Fri, Feb 13 35 @Wisconsin W 75 - 72 62%
 Tue, Feb 17 36 UCLA W 73 - 63 81%
 Sun, Feb 22 30 Ohio St. W 76 - 67 79%
 Thu, Feb 26 5 @Purdue L 68 - 72 35%
 Sun, Mar 1 37 @Indiana W 73 - 69 63%
 Thu, Mar 5 115 Rutgers W 78 - 58 96%
 Sun, Mar 8 1 @Michigan L 70 - 78 23%
Totals 25 - 6 15 - 5 +20 +7 B- A+ C +13 A+ A+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.0 8.2 4.6 0.7 16.6 1st
2nd 0.2 2.9 9.9 4.7 0.3 0.0 18.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 10.2 7.6 0.5 20.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 8.2 9.0 1.2 19.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 5.2 7.7 1.7 0.0 15.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 3.3 1.1 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.9 10.6 19.4 23.9 21.7 13.4 4.8 0.7 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 99.3% 0.7    0.7 0.1
18-2 94.7% 4.6    3.4 1.1 0.1
17-3 61.0% 8.2    2.7 3.8 1.6 0.1
16-4 13.7% 3.0    0.2 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.6% 16.6 6.9 6.0 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.8% 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 1.5 2.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-3 13.4% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 1.9 4.5 6.1 2.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-4 21.7% 100.0% 15.9% 84.1% 2.4 3.6 8.3 7.2 2.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 23.9% 100.0% 11.5% 88.5% 3.0 1.5 5.8 9.3 6.0 1.3 0.1 100.0%
14-6 19.4% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 3.7 0.3 1.9 6.0 7.5 3.2 0.5 0.1 100.0%
13-7 10.6% 100.0% 4.9% 95.1% 4.3 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.6 3.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 3.9% 100.0% 4.2% 95.8% 5.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-9 1.3% 100.0% 2.4% 97.6% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.2% 95.2% 95.2% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.2%
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 3.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 85.7 14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 73.5 26.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.4 66.7 31.1 2.2