Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.0#10
Expected Predictive Rating+24.2#6
Pace66.1#269
Improvement+3.6#14

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#29
First Shot+3.3#89
After Offensive Rebound+4.8#9
Layup/Dunks+2.7#98
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#24
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#314
Freethrows+1.8#87
Improvement+2.3#23

Defense
Total Defense+10.9#2
First Shot+7.7#16
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#18
Layups/Dunks+10.0#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#291
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#298
Freethrows+2.8#34
Improvement+1.3#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.2% 4.4% 1.9%
#1 Seed 17.1% 22.4% 11.6%
Top 2 Seed 40.2% 50.4% 29.9%
Top 4 Seed 78.4% 86.1% 70.5%
Top 6 Seed 93.8% 97.0% 90.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.5% 99.8% 99.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.4% 99.8% 99.0%
Average Seed 3.2 2.8 3.7
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.9% 97.9% 95.8%
Conference Champion 12.1% 14.7% 9.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round99.3% 99.7% 98.9%
Second Round90.5% 93.5% 87.5%
Sweet Sixteen59.6% 64.5% 54.5%
Elite Eight31.6% 36.4% 26.6%
Final Four15.7% 18.7% 12.6%
Championship Game7.5% 9.2% 5.9%
National Champion3.3% 4.2% 2.5%

Next Game: Duke (Home) - 50.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b6 - 110 - 6
Quad 27 - 117 - 7
Quad 35 - 021 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 176 Colgate W 80-69 97%     1 - 0 +6.7 +5.6 +1.2
  Sat, Nov 8 22 Arkansas W 69-66 75%     2 - 0 +15.0 +3.7 +11.5
  Thu, Nov 13 185 San Jose St. W 79-60 98%     3 - 0 +14.2 +8.1 +7.2
  Tue, Nov 18 23 Kentucky W 83-66 65%     4 - 0 +32.0 +16.2 +15.6
  Fri, Nov 21 313 Detroit Mercy W 84-56 99%     5 - 0 +16.6 +6.8 +10.4
  Tue, Nov 25 245 East Carolina W 89-56 98%     6 - 0 +28.3 +13.0 +14.3
  Thu, Nov 27 21 North Carolina W 74-58 65%     7 - 0 +31.1 +19.8 +13.7
  Tue, Dec 2 27 Iowa W 71-52 77%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +30.1 +16.9 +17.0
  Sat, Dec 6 3 Duke W 70-69 51%    
  Sat, Dec 13 96 @Penn St. W 78-67 84%    
  Tue, Dec 16 173 Toledo W 85-62 98%    
  Sat, Dec 20 141 Oakland W 86-68 95%    
  Mon, Dec 29 150 Cornell W 90-68 98%    
  Fri, Jan 2 49 @Nebraska W 75-70 68%    
  Mon, Jan 5 32 USC W 78-70 78%    
  Thu, Jan 8 60 Northwestern W 77-64 88%    
  Tue, Jan 13 24 Indiana W 74-67 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 57 @Washington W 75-68 72%    
  Tue, Jan 20 80 @Oregon W 75-66 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 86 Maryland W 79-63 93%    
  Tue, Jan 27 120 @Rutgers W 75-62 88%    
  Fri, Jan 30 1 Michigan L 71-75 35%    
  Wed, Feb 4 95 @Minnesota W 71-60 84%    
  Sat, Feb 7 17 Illinois W 77-72 67%    
  Fri, Feb 13 36 @Wisconsin W 75-72 61%    
  Tue, Feb 17 31 UCLA W 72-64 77%    
  Sun, Feb 22 25 Ohio St. W 76-68 75%    
  Thu, Feb 26 2 @Purdue L 68-74 29%    
  Sun, Mar 1 24 @Indiana W 71-70 55%    
  Thu, Mar 5 120 Rutgers W 78-59 95%    
  Sun, Mar 8 1 @Michigan L 68-78 19%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.2 4.1 1.5 0.3 12.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 4.5 7.1 5.0 1.1 0.0 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.6 8.7 5.0 1.0 0.0 21.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.6 6.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 15.9 4th
5th 0.3 3.1 4.7 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 3.6 2.0 0.2 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.6 6.2 9.9 13.0 15.7 17.0 14.3 10.2 5.3 1.5 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 99.8% 1.5    1.3 0.2
18-2 78.2% 4.1    2.6 1.4 0.2
17-3 41.0% 4.2    1.6 1.9 0.6 0.1
16-4 11.7% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1
15-5 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.1% 12.1 6.1 4.3 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 39.5% 60.5% 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.5% 100.0% 27.7% 72.3% 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.3% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 1.4 3.5 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 10.2% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 1.6 4.8 4.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 14.3% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 2.0 4.1 6.6 2.9 0.6 0.0 100.0%
15-5 17.0% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 2.6 2.3 6.0 6.1 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 15.7% 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 3.1 0.7 3.4 6.1 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 13.0% 100.0% 4.3% 95.7% 3.9 0.2 1.0 3.8 4.6 2.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 9.9% 99.9% 3.2% 96.8% 4.6 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.1 3.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 6.2% 99.8% 2.3% 97.6% 5.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.9 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-10 3.6% 99.5% 1.9% 97.7% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.5%
9-11 1.8% 97.6% 1.1% 96.5% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 97.6%
8-12 0.8% 79.5% 1.3% 78.2% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 79.2%
7-13 0.4% 62.6% 62.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 62.6%
6-14 0.2% 21.3% 21.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 21.3%
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.5% 10.3% 89.2% 3.2 17.1 23.2 22.0 16.2 10.1 5.3 2.7 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.5 99.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 88.5 11.5