Washington
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.2#89
Expected Predictive Rating+7.1#79
Pace71.5#95
Improvement+2.6#71

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#124
First Shot+0.5#159
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#106
Layup/Dunks+0.5#158
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#101
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#256
Freethrows+1.2#101
Improvement+2.5#53

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#64
First Shot+4.0#63
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#135
Layups/Dunks+3.5#62
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#8
Freethrows-0.4#217
Improvement+0.1#180
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.8% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.7% 0.3%
Average Seed 10.5 10.5 10.8
.500 or above 18.3% 29.7% 9.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.7% 1.4% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 50.2% 35.2% 62.5%
First Four0.6% 1.1% 0.2%
First Round0.6% 1.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska (Home) - 44.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 11
Quad 25 - 47 - 15
Quad 32 - 18 - 16
Quad 45 - 013 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 216   UC Davis W 79-73 86%     1 - 0 +0.4 -4.4 +3.8
  Nov 09, 2024 88   @ Nevada L 53-63 39%     1 - 1 -1.0 -11.8 +10.1
  Nov 17, 2024 203   Umass Lowell W 74-69 84%     2 - 1 +0.4 -4.3 +4.7
  Nov 22, 2024 320   Alcorn St. W 77-60 94%     3 - 1 +5.1 +6.3 +0.2
  Nov 28, 2024 77   Colorado St. W 73-67 45%     4 - 1 +13.4 +5.1 +8.4
  Nov 29, 2024 64   Santa Clara W 76-69 41%     5 - 1 +15.5 +8.6 +7.2
  Dec 03, 2024 29   @ UCLA L 58-69 16%     5 - 2 0 - 1 +5.8 -0.5 +5.3
  Dec 07, 2024 54   USC L 61-85 45%     5 - 3 0 - 2 -16.5 -8.1 -8.8
  Dec 10, 2024 252   Eastern Washington W 87-69 90%     6 - 3 +10.2 +10.0 +0.0
  Dec 18, 2024 103   Washington St. W 89-73 66%     7 - 3 +18.0 +10.6 +6.3
  Dec 23, 2024 162   Seattle L 70-79 79%     7 - 4 -11.3 -4.9 -6.1
  Dec 29, 2024 344   NJIT W 90-53 96%     8 - 4 +22.7 +22.8 +3.6
  Jan 02, 2025 16   Maryland W 75-69 22%     9 - 4 1 - 2 +20.2 +8.5 +11.6
  Jan 05, 2025 13   Illinois L 77-81 21%     9 - 5 1 - 3 +10.7 +7.3 +3.6
  Jan 09, 2025 15   @ Michigan St. L 54-88 11%     9 - 6 1 - 4 -14.6 -10.1 -3.4
  Jan 12, 2025 18   @ Michigan L 75-91 13%     9 - 7 1 - 5 +2.6 +7.9 -4.7
  Jan 15, 2025 9   Purdue L 58-69 19%     9 - 8 1 - 6 +4.5 -3.9 +7.5
  Jan 21, 2025 45   @ Oregon L 71-82 23%     9 - 9 1 - 7 +3.1 +5.5 -2.5
  Jan 24, 2025 29   UCLA L 60-65 29%     9 - 10 1 - 8 +6.8 -0.7 +7.1
  Feb 01, 2025 92   @ Minnesota W 71-68 41%     10 - 10 2 - 8 +11.5 +7.4 +4.3
  Feb 05, 2025 48   Nebraska L 71-73 45%    
  Feb 08, 2025 56   Northwestern L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 12, 2025 25   @ Ohio St. L 67-78 14%    
  Feb 15, 2025 50   @ Penn St. L 74-80 25%    
  Feb 19, 2025 63   Rutgers L 74-75 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 60   @ Iowa L 78-84 28%    
  Feb 25, 2025 17   @ Wisconsin L 69-82 11%    
  Mar 01, 2025 53   Indiana L 74-75 47%    
  Mar 05, 2025 54   @ USC L 71-77 27%    
  Mar 09, 2025 45   Oregon L 72-75 42%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 1.0 0.1 1.9 10th
11th 0.2 2.3 0.5 3.0 11th
12th 1.3 2.5 0.1 3.9 12th
13th 0.3 4.4 1.1 0.0 5.8 13th
14th 0.0 2.3 4.7 0.2 7.1 14th
15th 0.5 7.1 2.3 0.0 9.9 15th
16th 0.1 5.0 8.3 0.5 13.9 16th
17th 0.5 5.7 13.0 3.5 0.0 22.7 17th
18th 2.4 9.0 12.9 5.6 0.4 30.4 18th
Total 2.4 9.5 18.8 24.0 21.8 13.5 7.0 2.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.5% 52.8% 1.9% 50.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 51.9%
9-11 2.3% 15.9% 15.9% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.0 15.9%
8-12 7.0% 2.6% 0.1% 2.4% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.8 2.4%
7-13 13.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 13.5 0.1%
6-14 21.8% 21.8
5-15 24.0% 24.0
4-16 18.8% 18.8
3-17 9.5% 9.5
2-18 2.4% 2.4
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.0% 0.0% 0.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 99.0 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.4%