Nebraska
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.1 #14
Expected Predictive Rating +31.0 #2
Pace 68.5 #197
Improvement +4.2 #27

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #21 A+ C A+ C- B
Defense #13 A- A+ A- A+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #279 1.49 #1 +3.8 #58
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #335 0.62 #339 -4.0 #346
Three Pointers 53% #14 1.12 #49 +8.7 #5
1st FG Attempt 1.19 #10 +8.5 #10
Freethrows 15.5 #271 76% #66 11.8 #225
Second Chance 28.3% #248 1.08 #123 0.31 #200
Turnovers 12.8% #17
Total Offense +9.2 #21

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 21% #365 1.17 #200 +10.2 #2
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #14 0.68 #72 -2.1 #327
Three Pointers 51% #12 0.91 #64 -2.2 #281
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #30 +5.9 #30
Freethrows 11.9 #6 71% #89 8.4 #9
Second Chance 24.4% #16 0.84 #10 0.21 #5
Turnovers 19.6% #36
Total Defense +9.0 #13

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #75 -4.6% #4
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 14.7% #12 -7.2% #59
Possession Length 16.3 #80 19.0 #357
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #251 0.07 #2
Improvement +0.7 #142 +3.5 #26

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.3% 2.8% 0.9%
#1 Seed 16.4% 18.7% 9.4%
Top 2 Seed 47.7% 52.6% 33.1%
Top 4 Seed 93.5% 95.5% 87.8%
Top 6 Seed 99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.7 2.5 3.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 31.7% 36.9% 16.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round95.2% 95.9% 93.0%
Sweet Sixteen59.9% 61.8% 54.4%
Elite Eight27.9% 29.5% 22.9%
Final Four11.7% 12.8% 8.6%
Championship Game4.8% 5.2% 3.3%
National Champion1.9% 2.1% 1.3%

Next Game: Minnesota (Away) - 75.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 46 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 5
Quad 27 - 018 - 5
Quad 34 - 022 - 5
Quad 46 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 338 West Georgia W 86 - 53 99% +11  1 - 0 +19 +4 F A+ B- +14 A+ B C
 Sat, Nov 8 192 Florida International W 96 - 66 97% +21  2 - 0 +25 +12 A+ C- C+ +10 A+ B A+
 Tue, Nov 11 330 Maryland Eastern Shore W 69 - 50 99% +15  3 - 0 +5 -5 F D A+ +11 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 57 Oklahoma W 105 - 99 78% -3  4 - 0 +16 +32 A+ F A+ -17 F B- B-
 Thu, Nov 20 51 New Mexico W 84 - 72 76% +11  5 - 0 +23 +7 A+ F D +14 A- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 85 Kansas St. W 86 - 85 85% +4  6 - 0 +8 +10 A+ C- B -2 B+ C C+
 Tue, Nov 25 130 Winthrop W 80 - 73 95% +2  7 - 0 +6 +7 C F A+ -1 D- A C+
 Sat, Nov 29 303 South Carolina Upstate W 72 - 63 99% +2  8 - 0 -2 -6 D+ D F +4 B- A D
 Sun, Dec 7 44 Creighton W 71 - 50 82% +14  9 - 0 +29 +7 A- C- B+ +25 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 35 Wisconsin W 90 - 60 76% +14  10 - 0 1 - 0 +41 +21 A+ A B- +20 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 9 @Illinois W 83 - 80 30% +6  11 - 0 2 - 0 +26 +28 A+ B A- -2 B F C-
 Sun, Dec 21 297 North Dakota W 78 - 55 99% +3  12 - 0 +12 +2 D F A+ +11 B- A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 30 323 New Hampshire W 86 - 55 99% +10  13 - 0 +18 +11 D+ A+ C +8 B A- A+
 Fri, Jan 2 11 Michigan St. W 58 - 56 54% +1  14 - 0 3 - 0 +19 +2 C C+ A+ +17 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Jan 5 30 @Ohio St. W 72 - 69 53% +5  15 - 0 4 - 0 +20 +7 A D- D +13 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 37 @Indiana W 83 - 77 57% -1  16 - 0 5 - 0 +22 +21 A+ C+ A+ +2 B+ F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 68 Oregon W 90 - 55 88% +14  17 - 0 6 - 0 +40 +27 A+ A- A+ +16 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 60 @Northwestern W 77 - 58 72% +7  18 - 0 7 - 0 +31 +22 A+ B A+ +13 B+ A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 47 Washington W 76 - 66 83% +10  19 - 0 8 - 0 +18 +13 A+ F A +6 B A+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 71 @Minnesota W 72 - 65 75%
 Tue, Jan 27 1 @Michigan L 74 - 84 18%
 Sun, Feb 1 9 Illinois W 76 - 75 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 115 @Rutgers W 78 - 66 87%
 Tue, Feb 10 5 Purdue L 74 - 75 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 60 Northwestern W 79 - 67 87%
 Tue, Feb 17 23 @Iowa L 69 - 70 45%
 Sat, Feb 21 116 Penn St. W 85 - 67 95%
 Wed, Feb 25 100 Maryland W 82 - 66 93%
 Sat, Feb 28 48 @USC W 78 - 74 65%
 Tue, Mar 3 36 @UCLA W 73 - 71 56%
 Sun, Mar 8 23 Iowa W 72 - 67 66%
Totals 27 - 4 16 - 4 +18 +9 A+ C A+ +9 A- A+ A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.5 11.9 11.2 4.3 0.5 31.7 1st
2nd 0.2 3.1 11.9 7.8 0.9 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 9.1 6.9 0.6 18.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 5.6 6.1 0.8 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.3 1.0 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.8 0.5 3.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 5.5 12.3 19.5 23.1 20.3 12.1 4.3 0.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 4.3    4.1 0.3
18-2 92.4% 11.2    7.6 3.4 0.2
17-3 58.4% 11.9    3.6 5.7 2.3 0.2
16-4 15.2% 3.5    0.3 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 31.7% 31.7 16.1 10.7 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 22.9% 77.1% 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 4.3% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 1.5 2.4 1.7 0.2 100.0%
18-2 12.1% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 1.7 4.8 5.7 1.6 0.1 100.0%
17-3 20.3% 100.0% 10.6% 89.4% 2.1 4.8 9.5 5.3 0.7 0.0 100.0%
16-4 23.1% 100.0% 8.5% 91.5% 2.5 2.8 8.6 8.9 2.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 19.5% 100.0% 6.0% 94.0% 3.0 1.0 4.4 9.0 4.4 0.8 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.3% 100.0% 4.2% 95.8% 3.5 0.2 1.2 4.8 4.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 5.5% 100.0% 1.9% 98.1% 4.1 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-8 1.8% 100.0% 0.9% 99.1% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.5% 100.0% 1.1% 98.9% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 8.4% 91.6% 2.7 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.0 8.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 79.3 20.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 71.4 28.6