Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27

Last Updated: Feb 12, 2026
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View: Probabilistic Seeding


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Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Michigan Auto 100.0% 45.6% 54.4% 100.0%
1  Arizona Auto 100.0% 39.5% 60.5% 100.0%
1  Duke Auto 100.0% 49.3% 50.7% 100.0%
1  Houston At-Large 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 100.0%
2  Connecticut Auto 100.0% 52.8% 47.2% 100.0%
2  Florida Auto 100.0% 40.8% 59.3% 100.0%
2  Illinois At-Large 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 100.0%
2  Purdue At-Large 100.0% 12.8% 87.2% 100.0%
3  Iowa St. At-Large 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 100.0%
3  Kansas At-Large 100.0% 9.6% 90.5% 100.0%
3  Nebraska At-Large 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 100.0%
3  Michigan St. At-Large 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 100.0%
4  Vanderbilt At-Large 100.0% 11.5% 88.5% 100.0%
4  Gonzaga Auto 99.9% 63.6% 36.3% 99.8%
4  Alabama At-Large 99.9% 11.3% 88.7% 99.9%
4  Louisville At-Large 99.8% 17.5% 82.3% 99.7%
5  Texas Tech At-Large 99.9% 6.9% 93.0% 99.8%
5  Arkansas At-Large 99.8% 10.9% 88.8% 99.7%
5  Tennessee At-Large 99.8% 10.2% 89.6% 99.8%
5  Virginia At-Large 99.9% 10.1% 89.7% 99.8%
6  St. John's At-Large 99.6% 28.1% 71.5% 99.4%
6  BYU At-Large 99.3% 3.7% 95.7% 99.3%
6  Kentucky At-Large 98.4% 5.1% 93.3% 98.3%
6  North Carolina At-Large 98.6% 5.3% 93.3% 98.5%
7  Saint Louis Auto 95.6% 61.8% 33.8% 88.5%
7  North Carolina St. At-Large 97.7% 6.5% 91.1% 97.5%
7  Utah St. Auto 95.3% 36.8% 58.6% 92.6%
7  Iowa At-Large 92.9% 1.7% 91.2% 92.7%
8  Clemson At-Large 95.4% 4.9% 90.5% 95.2%
8  Wisconsin At-Large 93.0% 1.5% 91.5% 92.9%
8  Villanova At-Large 92.8% 11.6% 81.2% 91.9%
8  Texas At-Large 75.2% 2.3% 72.9% 74.6%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  SMU At-Large 84.7% 3.2% 81.6% 84.2%
9  Texas A&M At-Large 83.7% 2.9% 80.8% 83.2%
9  Georgia At-Large 79.9% 1.8% 78.1% 79.5%
9  Auburn At-Large 80.7% 2.6% 78.2% 80.2%
10  UCLA At-Large 76.9% 1.2% 75.8% 76.7%
10  Miami (FL) At-Large 77.8% 2.4% 75.4% 77.2%
10  Indiana At-Large 73.2% 1.0% 72.1% 72.9%
10  Missouri At-Large 62.9% 0.6% 62.3% 62.7%
11  Central Florida At-Large 67.2% 0.2% 67.0% 67.1%
11  USC At-Large 62.0% 0.1% 61.8% 61.9%
11  Ohio St. At-Large 59.5% 0.6% 58.9% 59.3%
11  St. Mary's At-Large 60.9% 16.6% 44.3% 53.1%
11  TCU At-Large 52.1% 0.1% 52.0% 52.0%
11  South Florida Auto 33.0% 30.9% 2.1% 3.0%
12  Belmont Auto 31.1% 30.7% 0.5% 0.7%
12  Akron Auto 42.0% 42.0% 0.0% 0.0%
12  McNeese St. Auto 46.1% 46.1% 0.0% 0.0%
12  Yale Auto 59.4% 59.4% 0.0% 0.0%
13  Liberty Auto 36.7% 36.6% 0.0% 0.0%
13  Utah Valley Auto 53.5% 53.5% 0.0% 0.0%
13  High Point Auto 52.2% 52.2%
13  Hawaii Auto 39.5% 39.5%
14  UNC Wilmington Auto 28.0% 28.0%
14  Troy Auto 31.3% 31.3%
14  St. Thomas Auto 41.1% 41.1%
14  Portland St. Auto 27.9% 27.9%
15  East Tennessee St. Auto 35.4% 35.4%
15  Oakland Auto 29.6% 29.6%
15  Austin Peay Auto 32.6% 32.6%
15  Marist Auto 24.1% 24.1%
16  Navy Auto 42.5% 42.5%
16  Tennessee Martin Auto 27.9% 27.9%
16  LIU Brooklyn Auto 60.0% 60.0%
16  Vermont Auto 39.8% 39.8%
16  Bethune-Cookman Auto 33.0% 33.0%
16  Howard Auto 51.7% 51.7%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
SMU 84.7% 3.2% 81.6% 84.2%
Texas A&M 83.7% 2.9% 80.8% 83.2%
Auburn 80.7% 2.6% 78.2% 80.2%
Georgia 79.9% 1.8% 78.1% 79.5%
Miami (FL) 77.8% 2.4% 75.4% 77.2%
UCLA 76.9% 1.2% 75.8% 76.7%
Texas 75.2% 2.3% 72.9% 74.6%
Indiana 73.2% 1.0% 72.1% 72.9%
Central Florida 67.2% 0.2% 67.0% 67.1%
Missouri 62.9% 0.6% 62.3% 62.7%
USC 62.0% 0.1% 61.8% 61.9%
Ohio St. 59.5% 0.6% 58.9% 59.3%
St. Mary's 60.9% 16.6% 44.3% 53.1%
TCU 52.1% 0.1% 52.0% 52.0%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
San Diego St. 58.6% 23.3% 35.3% 46.0%
Santa Clara 53.2% 18.4% 34.8% 42.7%
New Mexico 48.4% 15.7% 32.7% 38.8%
Virginia Tech 37.7% 0.4% 37.3% 37.5%
Seton Hall 30.5% 2.8% 27.6% 28.4%
West Virginia 24.7% 0.2% 24.5% 24.5%
Boise St. 27.5% 8.0% 19.5% 21.2%
Virginia Commonwealth 32.7% 20.7% 12.0% 15.1%
Stanford 14.6% 0.1% 14.5% 14.5%
Baylor 14.2% 0.4% 13.8% 13.9%
Oklahoma St. 13.6% 0.0% 13.6% 13.6%
California 9.5% 0.1% 9.4% 9.4%
Cincinnati 7.1% 0.3% 6.9% 6.9%
Washington 5.4% 0.1% 5.3% 5.3%
Nevada 11.9% 7.2% 4.7% 5.1%
Oklahoma 3.3% 0.1% 3.2% 3.2%
LSU 2.9% 0.1% 2.8% 2.8%
Grand Canyon 8.7% 6.2% 2.5% 2.7%
Wake Forest 1.9% 0.1% 1.8% 1.8%
Arizona St. 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 1.8%
Miami (OH) 33.4% 32.3% 1.1% 1.7%
Creighton 3.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Syracuse 1.4% 0.1% 1.2% 1.2%
Georgetown 1.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%
Butler 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0%
Tulsa 26.3% 25.7% 0.5% 0.7%
Colorado 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
Minnesota 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Xavier 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Mississippi 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Providence 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2%
George Mason 4.9% 4.8% 0.2% 0.2%
Mississippi St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Florida St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Notre Dame 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Colorado St. 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Dayton 2.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 16.2% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%