Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27

Last Updated: Jan 23, 2026
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View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Arizona Auto 100.0% 33.8% 66.2% 100.0%
1  Michigan Auto 100.0% 41.0% 59.0% 100.0%
1  Duke Auto 100.0% 43.8% 56.2% 100.0%
1  Houston At-Large 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 100.0%
2  Connecticut Auto 100.0% 50.4% 49.6% 100.0%
2  Purdue At-Large 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 100.0%
2  Nebraska At-Large 100.0% 8.4% 91.6% 100.0%
2  Iowa St. At-Large 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 100.0%
3  Michigan St. At-Large 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 100.0%
3  Illinois At-Large 100.0% 14.0% 86.0% 100.0%
3  Florida Auto 99.9% 28.5% 71.5% 99.9%
3  Gonzaga Auto 100.0% 75.8% 24.2% 100.0%
4  BYU At-Large 99.9% 10.2% 89.6% 99.8%
4  Texas Tech At-Large 99.8% 9.1% 90.7% 99.8%
4  Virginia At-Large 99.9% 17.1% 82.8% 99.9%
4  Alabama At-Large 99.2% 14.3% 84.9% 99.1%
5  Vanderbilt At-Large 99.5% 10.2% 89.4% 99.5%
5  Arkansas At-Large 98.8% 12.1% 86.6% 98.6%
5  Kansas At-Large 99.0% 5.7% 93.3% 99.0%
5  Louisville At-Large 97.7% 14.3% 83.4% 97.4%
6  St. John's At-Large 99.2% 26.7% 72.5% 98.9%
6  Georgia At-Large 97.5% 7.8% 89.7% 97.3%
6  Kentucky At-Large 92.5% 6.9% 85.6% 91.9%
6  Tennessee At-Large 91.4% 7.7% 83.7% 90.7%
7  Iowa At-Large 92.5% 3.1% 89.4% 92.3%
7  Clemson At-Large 95.7% 6.0% 89.8% 95.5%
7  Auburn At-Large 81.0% 4.3% 76.8% 80.2%
7  Villanova At-Large 91.4% 11.1% 80.4% 90.4%
8  Texas A&M At-Large 87.0% 4.4% 82.6% 86.4%
8  Wisconsin At-Large 84.1% 1.1% 83.0% 83.9%
8  SMU At-Large 89.3% 4.9% 84.3% 88.7%
8  North Carolina At-Large 85.9% 3.7% 82.3% 85.4%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  North Carolina St. At-Large 86.2% 6.1% 80.1% 85.3%
9  Ohio St. At-Large 77.7% 1.2% 76.5% 77.5%
9  UCLA At-Large 72.9% 0.9% 72.0% 72.6%
9  Saint Louis Auto 83.2% 48.1% 35.1% 67.6%
10  Central Florida At-Large 61.0% 0.4% 60.7% 60.9%
10  Miami (FL) At-Large 64.0% 2.5% 61.4% 63.0%
10  Texas At-Large 47.3% 1.7% 45.6% 46.4%
10  USC At-Large 46.7% 0.2% 46.5% 46.6%
11  Seton Hall At-Large 47.1% 2.8% 44.3% 45.5%
11  Missouri At-Large 46.7% 0.7% 46.0% 46.4%
11  Utah St. Auto 64.8% 29.9% 34.9% 49.8%
11  TCU At-Large 40.8% 0.4% 40.4% 40.5%
11  Creighton At-Large 43.0% 4.9% 38.2% 40.1%
11  Tulsa Auto 25.5% 25.0% 0.6% 0.7%
12  Belmont Auto 28.9% 28.7% 0.3% 0.4%
12  Akron Auto 44.1% 44.1% 0.1% 0.1%
12  McNeese St. Auto 51.9% 51.9% 0.0% 0.1%
12  Liberty Auto 33.9% 33.8% 0.1% 0.1%
13  Yale Auto 62.1% 62.1% 0.0% 0.0%
13  Troy Auto 44.1% 44.1%
13  Utah Valley Auto 45.0% 45.0%
13  Hawaii Auto 33.6% 33.6%
14  High Point Auto 52.0% 52.0%
14  UNC Wilmington Auto 22.7% 22.7%
14  St. Thomas Auto 36.3% 36.3%
14  Oakland Auto 28.0% 28.0%
15  Portland St. Auto 23.1% 23.1%
15  East Tennessee St. Auto 31.9% 31.9%
15  Austin Peay Auto 23.5% 23.5%
15  Marist Auto 22.9% 22.9%
16  Tennessee Martin Auto 24.3% 24.3%
16  Navy Auto 28.6% 28.6%
16  Vermont Auto 41.0% 41.0%
16  LIU Brooklyn Auto 50.6% 50.6%
16  Southern Auto 26.2% 26.2%
16  Howard Auto 39.7% 39.7%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Wisconsin 84.1% 1.1% 83.0% 83.9%
Auburn 81.0% 4.3% 76.8% 80.2%
Ohio St. 77.7% 1.2% 76.5% 77.5%
UCLA 72.9% 0.9% 72.0% 72.6%
Miami (FL) 64.0% 2.5% 61.4% 63.0%
Central Florida 61.0% 0.4% 60.7% 60.9%
USC 46.7% 0.2% 46.5% 46.6%
Texas 47.3% 1.7% 45.6% 46.4%
Missouri 46.7% 0.7% 46.0% 46.4%
Seton Hall 47.1% 2.8% 44.3% 45.5%
TCU 40.8% 0.4% 40.4% 40.5%
Creighton 43.0% 4.9% 38.2% 40.1%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Indiana 40.0% 0.6% 39.4% 39.6%
Virginia Tech 39.7% 0.6% 39.2% 39.4%
West Virginia 36.5% 0.3% 36.2% 36.3%
Baylor 35.5% 0.5% 35.0% 35.2%
LSU 35.4% 0.8% 34.6% 34.9%
St. Mary's 40.6% 13.4% 27.2% 31.4%
New Mexico 42.4% 19.5% 22.9% 28.5%
Butler 29.4% 2.0% 27.4% 28.0%
Stanford 28.1% 0.2% 27.8% 27.9%
San Diego St. 41.9% 21.0% 21.0% 26.5%
Oklahoma St. 22.3% 0.1% 22.2% 22.2%
Washington 20.1% 0.2% 20.0% 20.0%
Santa Clara 22.1% 9.1% 13.0% 14.3%
Cincinnati 13.2% 0.4% 12.8% 12.9%
California 11.4% 0.2% 11.2% 11.3%
Oklahoma 11.4% 0.2% 11.2% 11.2%
Mississippi 9.4% 0.3% 9.1% 9.1%
Wake Forest 8.6% 0.2% 8.3% 8.3%
Virginia Commonwealth 25.7% 19.2% 6.5% 8.1%
George Mason 14.7% 8.9% 5.8% 6.4%
Boise St. 13.3% 7.7% 5.6% 6.1%
Syracuse 5.4% 0.2% 5.2% 5.2%
Xavier 5.4% 0.7% 4.7% 4.7%
Minnesota 3.6% 0.0% 3.6% 3.6%
Colorado 3.5% 0.0% 3.4% 3.4%
South Carolina 3.2% 0.1% 3.1% 3.1%
Providence 4.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Mississippi St. 3.1% 0.1% 3.0% 3.0%
Nevada 10.2% 7.7% 2.5% 2.7%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Notre Dame 2.5% 0.1% 2.4% 2.4%
Grand Canyon 10.1% 7.9% 2.2% 2.4%
Dayton 11.7% 9.6% 2.1% 2.3%
Northwestern 2.1% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Arizona St. 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0%
Kansas St. 1.6% 0.0% 1.5% 1.5%
Miami (OH) 30.8% 29.9% 0.9% 1.3%
South Florida 23.5% 23.0% 0.4% 0.6%
DePaul 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5%
Oregon 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5%
George Washington 9.1% 8.9% 0.3% 0.3%
Georgetown 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Colorado St. 2.8% 2.6% 0.2% 0.2%
Utah 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Pittsburgh 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Murray St. 18.9% 18.8% 0.1% 0.1%
UNLV 2.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Maryland 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 1.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 22.4% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Marquette 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Memphis 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%