Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26

Last Updated: Mar 11, 2025
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View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Auburn Auto 100.0% 35.9% 64.1% 100.0%
1  Duke Auto 100.0% 79.6% 20.4% 100.0%
1  Houston Auto 100.0% 41.9% 58.1% 100.0%
1  Florida At-Large 100.0% 28.5% 71.5% 100.0%
2  Alabama At-Large 100.0% 15.1% 84.9% 100.0%
2  Tennessee At-Large 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 100.0%
2  Michigan St. Auto 100.0% 27.9% 72.1% 100.0%
2  Texas Tech At-Large 100.0% 20.3% 79.7% 100.0%
3  Kentucky At-Large 100.0% 2.7% 97.3% 100.0%
3  St. John's Auto 100.0% 36.3% 63.8% 100.0%
3  Iowa St. At-Large 100.0% 10.2% 89.9% 100.0%
3  Maryland At-Large 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 100.0%
4  Texas A&M At-Large 100.0% 1.9% 98.1% 100.0%
4  Arizona At-Large 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 100.0%
4  Purdue At-Large 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 100.0%
4  Wisconsin At-Large 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 100.0%
5  Illinois At-Large 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 100.0%
5  Clemson At-Large 99.8% 8.2% 91.6% 99.8%
5  Michigan At-Large 100.0% 6.3% 93.7% 100.0%
5  UCLA At-Large 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 100.0%
6  Oregon At-Large 100.0% 2.4% 97.6% 100.0%
6  Louisville At-Large 99.6% 8.6% 90.9% 99.5%
6  Mississippi At-Large 99.9% 0.7% 99.3% 99.9%
6  BYU At-Large 99.7% 6.2% 93.5% 99.7%
7  Kansas At-Large 99.8% 6.0% 93.9% 99.8%
7  Missouri At-Large 99.7% 1.9% 97.8% 99.6%
7  St. Mary's At-Large 99.1% 33.7% 65.4% 98.6%
7  Marquette At-Large 99.1% 15.6% 83.5% 98.9%
8  Gonzaga Auto 98.1% 66.3% 31.8% 94.3%
8  Connecticut At-Large 98.5% 17.4% 81.2% 98.2%
8  Creighton At-Large 95.1% 16.6% 78.4% 94.1%
8  Mississippi St. At-Large 97.6% 0.4% 97.2% 97.6%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Memphis Auto 96.0% 49.2% 46.8% 92.0%
9  New Mexico Auto 90.1% 31.1% 59.0% 85.6%
9  West Virginia At-Large 92.7% 0.7% 92.0% 92.6%
9  Georgia At-Large 91.5% 0.2% 91.3% 91.5%
10  Vanderbilt At-Large 83.6% 0.1% 83.5% 83.6%
10  Arkansas At-Large 75.3% 0.3% 75.0% 75.2%
10  Baylor At-Large 86.8% 2.3% 84.4% 86.4%
10  Oklahoma At-Large 71.0% 0.1% 70.9% 71.0%
11  Virginia Commonwealth Auto 69.0% 55.6% 13.4% 30.1%
11  Ohio St. At-Large 72.7% 1.6% 71.1% 72.3%
11  Indiana At-Large 64.6% 1.0% 63.7% 64.3%
11  Utah St. At-Large 68.0% 17.8% 50.2% 61.1%
11  San Diego St. At-Large 62.0% 12.7% 49.3% 56.5%
11  Xavier At-Large 62.5% 7.2% 55.3% 59.6%
12  UC San Diego Auto 61.1% 56.3% 4.8% 10.9%
12  Drake Auto 100.0% 100.0%
12  Liberty Auto 40.0% 40.0% 0.0% 0.1%
12  McNeese St. Auto 73.4% 73.4%
13  Yale Auto 60.1% 60.1%
13  High Point Auto 100.0% 100.0%
13  Grand Canyon Auto 46.5% 46.5%
13  Akron Auto 38.5% 38.5%
14  Lipscomb Auto 100.0% 100.0%
14  UNC Wilmington Auto 75.8% 75.8%
14  Troy Auto 100.0% 100.0%
14  Northern Colorado Auto 39.4% 39.4%
15  Robert Morris Auto 61.0% 61.0%
15  Wofford Auto 100.0% 100.0%
15  Central Connecticut St. Auto 78.7% 78.7%
15  Nebraska Omaha Auto 100.0% 100.0%
16  Bryant Auto 47.5% 47.5%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 44.5% 44.5%
16  Merrimack Auto 27.4% 27.4%
16  Southern Auto 30.4% 30.4%
16  American Auto 53.1% 53.1%
16  SIU Edwardsville Auto 100.0% 100.0%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Vanderbilt 83.6% 0.1% 83.5% 83.6%
Arkansas 75.3% 0.3% 75.0% 75.2%
Ohio St. 72.7% 1.6% 71.1% 72.3%
Oklahoma 71.0% 0.1% 70.9% 71.0%
Indiana 64.6% 1.0% 63.7% 64.3%
Utah St. 68.0% 17.8% 50.2% 61.1%
Xavier 62.5% 7.2% 55.3% 59.6%
San Diego St. 62.0% 12.7% 49.3% 56.5%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
North Carolina 37.9% 1.8% 36.1% 36.8%
Texas 27.2% 0.1% 27.1% 27.1%
Boise St. 31.8% 12.9% 18.9% 21.7%
Wake Forest 19.5% 0.6% 18.9% 19.0%
Villanova 22.7% 5.1% 17.6% 18.5%
Colorado St. 33.6% 18.7% 14.9% 18.3%
SMU 15.4% 0.7% 14.7% 14.8%
Nebraska 8.1% 8.1% 8.1%
Cincinnati 5.9% 0.2% 5.7% 5.7%
Dayton 16.9% 12.5% 4.4% 5.0%
Northwestern 3.8% 0.5% 3.3% 3.3%
Santa Clara 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
San Francisco 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
UC Irvine 34.5% 33.4% 1.1% 1.6%
TCU 1.0% 0.1% 1.0% 1.0%
Kansas St. 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.8%
Pittsburgh 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 0.6%
Stanford 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4%
George Mason 9.3% 9.0% 0.3% 0.3%
Utah 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3%
Rutgers 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
USC 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Central Florida 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
North Texas 25.8% 25.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Minnesota 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%