Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26

Last Updated: Dec 21, 2024
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com

View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Auburn Auto 100.0% 35.5% 64.5% 100.0%
1  Tennessee At-Large 99.9% 20.7% 79.3% 99.9%
1  Duke Auto 99.9% 55.8% 44.1% 99.9%
1  Iowa St. Auto 99.8% 25.5% 74.3% 99.7%
2  Kentucky At-Large 98.4% 8.8% 89.6% 98.3%
2  Florida At-Large 99.1% 11.3% 87.8% 99.0%
2  Alabama At-Large 97.9% 9.1% 88.8% 97.7%
2  Houston At-Large 97.6% 23.5% 74.1% 96.9%
3  Kansas At-Large 97.9% 14.3% 83.6% 97.5%
3  Gonzaga Auto 98.9% 69.6% 29.3% 96.5%
3  Connecticut Auto 98.2% 31.1% 67.1% 97.4%
3  Baylor At-Large 92.1% 10.9% 81.1% 91.1%
4  UCLA Auto 95.7% 13.8% 82.0% 95.0%
4  Marquette At-Large 97.0% 20.7% 76.3% 96.2%
4  Oregon At-Large 95.1% 8.5% 86.7% 94.7%
4  Michigan St. At-Large 93.5% 13.3% 80.2% 92.5%
5  St. John's At-Large 93.9% 25.5% 68.4% 91.9%
5  Illinois At-Large 87.9% 11.8% 76.1% 86.3%
5  Purdue At-Large 89.8% 9.1% 80.7% 88.8%
5  Texas A&M At-Large 87.7% 2.8% 84.9% 87.4%
6  Mississippi St. At-Large 83.2% 2.1% 81.1% 82.8%
6  Mississippi At-Large 81.1% 2.2% 78.9% 80.7%
6  Maryland At-Large 89.2% 11.9% 77.3% 87.7%
6  Michigan At-Large 86.9% 10.0% 76.9% 85.4%
7  Cincinnati At-Large 84.6% 5.2% 79.4% 83.8%
7  Oklahoma At-Large 83.5% 1.4% 82.1% 83.3%
7  Arizona At-Large 70.0% 8.1% 61.9% 67.3%
7  Arkansas At-Large 73.9% 1.9% 72.0% 73.4%
8  Texas At-Large 66.3% 1.4% 65.0% 65.9%
8  Texas Tech At-Large 73.6% 5.5% 68.1% 72.0%
8  Georgia At-Large 72.7% 1.4% 71.3% 72.4%
8  West Virginia At-Large 68.6% 2.5% 66.1% 67.8%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  North Carolina At-Large 71.9% 12.6% 59.3% 67.8%
9  Wisconsin At-Large 72.2% 4.0% 68.2% 71.1%
9  Penn St. At-Large 66.4% 5.3% 61.1% 64.6%
9  Pittsburgh At-Large 76.0% 8.0% 68.1% 74.0%
10  Memphis Auto 84.2% 48.4% 35.8% 69.4%
10  BYU At-Large 53.1% 2.1% 51.0% 52.1%
10  Ohio St. At-Large 51.9% 3.5% 48.4% 50.2%
10  Clemson At-Large 63.0% 7.9% 55.1% 59.8%
11  Iowa At-Large 44.4% 2.5% 41.9% 43.0%
11  Missouri At-Large 45.2% 0.4% 44.8% 45.0%
11  Nebraska At-Large 44.5% 1.8% 42.7% 43.5%
11  Vanderbilt At-Large 45.2% 0.6% 44.6% 44.9%
11  San Diego St. Auto 53.0% 24.3% 28.7% 37.9%
11  Dayton Auto 46.5% 28.4% 18.1% 25.3%
12  Drake Auto 41.2% 33.2% 8.0% 11.9%
12  UC Irvine Auto 53.0% 50.2% 2.9% 5.8%
12  Liberty Auto 31.2% 29.4% 1.8% 2.5%
12  Arkansas St. Auto 24.6% 24.6% 0.0% 0.0%
13  Grand Canyon Auto 41.0% 41.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13  McNeese St. Auto 55.7% 55.7% 0.0% 0.0%
13  College of Charleston Auto 22.1% 22.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13  Yale Auto 37.4% 37.4% 0.0% 0.0%
14  Samford Auto 26.6% 26.6% 0.0% 0.0%
14  Kent St. Auto 35.0% 35.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14  Lipscomb Auto 41.4% 41.4% 0.0% 0.0%
14  South Dakota St. Auto 31.4% 31.4%
15  High Point Auto 26.3% 26.3%
15  Wisconsin-Milwaukee Auto 23.7% 23.7%
15  Umass Lowell Auto 27.7% 27.7%
15  Montana St. Auto 29.4% 29.4%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 42.3% 42.3%
16  Merrimack Auto 21.9% 21.9%
16  Central Connecticut St. Auto 43.4% 43.4%
16  Arkansas Little Rock Auto 22.2% 22.2%
16  Southern Auto 28.7% 28.7%
16  Colgate Auto 19.0% 19.0%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Cincinnati 84.6% 5.2% 79.4% 83.8%
Oklahoma 83.5% 1.4% 82.1% 83.3%
Mississippi St. 83.2% 2.1% 81.1% 82.8%
Mississippi 81.1% 2.2% 78.9% 80.7%
Pittsburgh 76.0% 8.0% 68.1% 74.0%
Arkansas 73.9% 1.9% 72.0% 73.4%
Georgia 72.7% 1.4% 71.3% 72.4%
Texas Tech 73.6% 5.5% 68.1% 72.0%
Wisconsin 72.2% 4.0% 68.2% 71.1%
North Carolina 71.9% 12.6% 59.3% 67.8%
West Virginia 68.6% 2.5% 66.1% 67.8%
Arizona 70.0% 8.1% 61.9% 67.3%
Texas 66.3% 1.4% 65.0% 65.9%
Penn St. 66.4% 5.3% 61.1% 64.6%
Clemson 63.0% 7.9% 55.1% 59.8%
BYU 53.1% 2.1% 51.0% 52.1%
Ohio St. 51.9% 3.5% 48.4% 50.2%
Missouri 45.2% 0.4% 44.8% 45.0%
Vanderbilt 45.2% 0.6% 44.6% 44.9%
Nebraska 44.5% 1.8% 42.7% 43.5%
Iowa 44.4% 2.5% 41.9% 43.0%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Indiana 43.6% 2.1% 41.4% 42.3%
Arizona St. 39.9% 0.7% 39.3% 39.5%
SMU 40.7% 4.4% 36.3% 37.9%
Louisville 38.1% 3.7% 34.4% 35.7%
LSU 34.5% 0.3% 34.2% 34.3%
Xavier 36.1% 5.2% 30.9% 32.6%
Creighton 34.8% 5.0% 29.9% 31.4%
St. Mary's 38.0% 10.2% 27.9% 31.0%
Villanova 34.9% 5.9% 29.0% 30.8%
Northwestern 30.5% 1.0% 29.5% 29.8%
Utah St. 39.2% 19.1% 20.1% 24.9%
Colorado 23.6% 0.3% 23.3% 23.4%
Rutgers 22.2% 0.8% 21.4% 21.6%
Utah 18.4% 0.6% 17.8% 17.9%
South Carolina 17.5% 0.1% 17.4% 17.4%
Georgetown 19.0% 2.5% 16.5% 16.9%
Florida St. 16.8% 1.9% 14.9% 15.1%
Nevada 31.1% 19.6% 11.5% 14.3%
Central Florida 13.9% 0.2% 13.7% 13.7%
Kansas St. 13.4% 0.4% 13.0% 13.0%
Butler 14.1% 1.7% 12.4% 12.6%
Boise St. 27.0% 17.2% 9.8% 11.9%
Wake Forest 11.8% 0.7% 11.1% 11.2%
USC 11.1% 0.4% 10.7% 10.8%
Washington 10.9% 0.3% 10.6% 10.6%
New Mexico 20.9% 11.8% 9.1% 10.3%
San Francisco 13.8% 6.6% 7.2% 7.7%
Providence 8.1% 1.8% 6.3% 6.4%
TCU 6.1% 0.2% 6.0% 6.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
North Carolina St. 6.8% 1.2% 5.6% 5.7%
Oklahoma St. 5.6% 0.1% 5.5% 5.5%
Virginia Commonwealth 26.7% 22.4% 4.2% 5.5%
Washington St. 8.3% 3.2% 5.0% 5.2%
Oregon St. 11.1% 6.3% 4.7% 5.1%
Stanford 5.2% 0.6% 4.6% 4.6%
Virginia 4.7% 0.5% 4.2% 4.2%
Notre Dame 4.9% 1.1% 3.7% 3.8%
Santa Clara 6.7% 3.9% 2.7% 2.9%
St. Bonaventure 12.1% 9.7% 2.4% 2.7%
DePaul 2.7% 0.5% 2.2% 2.2%
Syracuse 2.6% 0.6% 2.1% 2.1%
Bradley 25.4% 24.3% 1.1% 1.5%
North Texas 18.1% 17.0% 1.1% 1.3%
Rhode Island 8.7% 7.9% 0.9% 0.9%
UC San Diego 29.4% 28.9% 0.5% 0.7%
Florida Atlantic 14.6% 14.1% 0.5% 0.6%
Loyola Chicago 5.7% 5.2% 0.5% 0.5%
Saint Joseph's 9.2% 8.7% 0.5% 0.5%
George Mason 10.5% 10.1% 0.4% 0.5%
Miami (FL) 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4%
Minnesota 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4%
Louisiana Tech 19.6% 19.3% 0.2% 0.3%
California 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3%
Colorado St. 3.9% 3.7% 0.2% 0.2%
Northern Iowa 17.2% 17.1% 0.1% 0.2%
UNLV 3.5% 3.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Georgia Tech 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Western Kentucky 17.0% 16.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Wichita St. 6.7% 6.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Seton Hall 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Davidson 2.9% 2.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Furman 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Virginia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 4.6% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Cornell 19.9% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Murray St. 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Princeton 20.2% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%