Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27

Last Updated: Dec 6, 2025
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com

View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Michigan Auto 100.0% 48.7% 51.3% 100.0%
1  Purdue At-Large 99.9% 22.6% 77.3% 99.9%
1  Duke Auto 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 99.9%
1  Connecticut Auto 99.9% 46.9% 53.0% 99.9%
2  Iowa St. Auto 99.6% 23.6% 76.0% 99.5%
2  Arizona At-Large 99.4% 19.0% 80.4% 99.3%
2  Gonzaga Auto 99.8% 76.7% 23.1% 99.0%
2  Houston At-Large 99.2% 20.3% 79.0% 99.0%
3  Michigan St. At-Large 99.5% 10.3% 89.2% 99.4%
3  Vanderbilt At-Large 99.0% 17.3% 81.8% 98.8%
3  BYU At-Large 99.3% 18.3% 81.0% 99.1%
3  Alabama Auto 98.0% 18.3% 79.7% 97.6%
4  Louisville At-Large 96.9% 18.6% 78.3% 96.1%
4  Florida At-Large 92.7% 13.8% 78.8% 91.5%
4  Tennessee At-Large 90.8% 11.4% 79.4% 89.7%
4  St. John's At-Large 94.9% 29.3% 65.6% 92.9%
5  Kansas At-Large 89.8% 7.6% 82.2% 89.0%
5  Illinois At-Large 92.0% 6.0% 86.0% 91.5%
5  Auburn At-Large 85.6% 7.0% 78.7% 84.6%
5  Arkansas At-Large 81.0% 6.1% 74.9% 79.8%
6  North Carolina At-Large 91.4% 8.1% 83.3% 90.6%
6  Georgia At-Large 85.6% 7.4% 78.2% 84.4%
6  Baylor At-Large 76.7% 3.4% 73.3% 75.9%
6  Texas Tech At-Large 69.1% 3.5% 65.5% 67.9%
7  Ohio St. At-Large 75.3% 2.4% 72.9% 74.7%
7  Kentucky At-Large 60.8% 6.0% 54.8% 58.3%
7  USC At-Large 83.0% 1.8% 81.2% 82.7%
7  Virginia At-Large 84.8% 7.4% 77.4% 83.6%
8  Iowa At-Large 79.2% 2.1% 77.1% 78.7%
8  LSU At-Large 72.2% 4.3% 67.9% 70.9%
8  Indiana At-Large 72.6% 2.0% 70.6% 72.1%
8  UCLA At-Large 68.5% 1.8% 66.7% 67.9%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Missouri At-Large 58.5% 2.4% 56.1% 57.5%
9  Clemson At-Large 75.7% 5.4% 70.3% 74.3%
9  Wisconsin At-Large 63.4% 1.3% 62.1% 62.9%
9  North Carolina St. At-Large 64.1% 4.6% 59.6% 62.4%
10  SMU At-Large 69.5% 2.9% 66.6% 68.6%
10  Miami (FL) At-Large 65.6% 5.2% 60.4% 63.7%
10  Butler At-Large 62.1% 5.5% 56.6% 59.9%
10  Oklahoma At-Large 53.4% 2.0% 51.5% 52.5%
10  Oklahoma St. At-Large 57.5% 1.1% 56.3% 57.0%
11  Villanova At-Large 58.9% 6.8% 52.1% 55.9%
11  Nebraska At-Large 54.3% 0.5% 53.7% 54.0%
11  Virginia Commonwealth Auto 41.9% 25.1% 16.8% 22.4%
11  Utah St. Auto 43.6% 25.1% 18.5% 24.7%
11  Memphis Auto 25.3% 24.0% 1.3% 1.7%
12  Akron Auto 50.5% 50.0% 0.5% 1.1%
12  Northern Iowa Auto 22.4% 21.8% 0.6% 0.8%
12  Yale Auto 57.6% 57.3% 0.3% 0.6%
12  McNeese St. Auto 54.6% 54.5% 0.1% 0.2%
13  UC San Diego Auto 30.9% 30.8% 0.1% 0.1%
13  Liberty Auto 26.2% 26.1% 0.1% 0.1%
13  UNC Wilmington Auto 25.1% 25.1% 0.0% 0.0%
13  Utah Valley Auto 50.8% 50.8% 0.0% 0.0%
14  High Point Auto 44.4% 44.4%
14  East Tennessee St. Auto 38.5% 38.5%
14  Troy Auto 21.0% 21.0%
14  Northern Colorado Auto 17.4% 17.4%
15  Quinnipiac Auto 24.0% 24.0%
15  Oakland Auto 26.0% 26.0%
15  South Dakota St. Auto 30.3% 30.3%
15  Lipscomb Auto 21.0% 21.0%
16  Colgate Auto 29.5% 29.5%
16  SIU Edwardsville Auto 23.3% 23.3%
16  Southern Auto 26.1% 26.1%
16  Vermont Auto 38.8% 38.8%
16  Central Connecticut St. Auto 33.7% 33.7%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 46.5% 46.5%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Auburn 85.6% 7.0% 78.7% 84.6%
Georgia 85.6% 7.4% 78.2% 84.4%
Virginia 84.8% 7.4% 77.4% 83.6%
USC 83.0% 1.8% 81.2% 82.7%
Arkansas 81.0% 6.1% 74.9% 79.8%
Iowa 79.2% 2.1% 77.1% 78.7%
Baylor 76.7% 3.4% 73.3% 75.9%
Ohio St. 75.3% 2.4% 72.9% 74.7%
Clemson 75.7% 5.4% 70.3% 74.3%
Indiana 72.6% 2.0% 70.6% 72.1%
LSU 72.2% 4.3% 67.9% 70.9%
SMU 69.5% 2.9% 66.6% 68.6%
Texas Tech 69.1% 3.5% 65.5% 67.9%
UCLA 68.5% 1.8% 66.7% 67.9%
Miami (FL) 65.6% 5.2% 60.4% 63.7%
Wisconsin 63.4% 1.3% 62.1% 62.9%
North Carolina St. 64.1% 4.6% 59.6% 62.4%
Butler 62.1% 5.5% 56.6% 59.9%
Kentucky 60.8% 6.0% 54.8% 58.3%
Missouri 58.5% 2.4% 56.1% 57.5%
Oklahoma St. 57.5% 1.1% 56.3% 57.0%
Villanova 58.9% 6.8% 52.1% 55.9%
Nebraska 54.3% 0.5% 53.7% 54.0%
Oklahoma 53.4% 2.0% 51.5% 52.5%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Texas A&M 47.1% 2.0% 45.1% 46.0%
TCU 45.1% 1.1% 44.0% 44.5%
Creighton 45.9% 5.2% 40.7% 42.9%
Notre Dame 37.1% 1.0% 36.0% 36.4%
Colorado 35.1% 0.5% 34.6% 34.8%
Central Florida 34.4% 0.4% 34.0% 34.2%
St. Mary's 42.0% 12.5% 29.5% 33.7%
Wake Forest 30.1% 1.4% 28.7% 29.1%
Texas 28.9% 1.2% 27.7% 28.0%
Syracuse 25.8% 1.0% 24.7% 25.0%
California 21.9% 0.5% 21.4% 21.5%
Seton Hall 22.5% 1.3% 21.2% 21.5%
Saint Louis 39.4% 23.5% 15.9% 20.8%
Washington 20.3% 0.3% 20.1% 20.1%
Northwestern 20.0% 0.2% 19.8% 19.9%
Santa Clara 25.6% 7.4% 18.2% 19.7%
Virginia Tech 18.9% 0.5% 18.4% 18.5%
Mississippi 18.2% 0.5% 17.7% 17.8%
West Virginia 16.2% 0.4% 15.7% 15.8%
Arizona St. 14.6% 0.2% 14.4% 14.4%
Xavier 14.9% 1.4% 13.6% 13.7%
Stanford 13.6% 0.3% 13.3% 13.3%
Cincinnati 13.5% 0.3% 13.2% 13.2%
Kansas St. 12.9% 0.3% 12.6% 12.6%
San Diego St. 31.6% 22.0% 9.6% 12.3%
Boise St. 28.8% 19.0% 9.8% 12.1%
Dayton 22.3% 11.9% 10.4% 11.8%
Georgetown 11.6% 0.9% 10.7% 10.8%
Providence 10.9% 1.6% 9.3% 9.5%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
George Mason 19.9% 12.4% 7.5% 8.5%
Mississippi St. 7.2% 0.2% 7.0% 7.0%
Oregon 6.5% 0.1% 6.4% 6.4%
George Washington 19.8% 14.4% 5.4% 6.3%
Maryland 5.3% 0.0% 5.3% 5.3%
Marquette 5.9% 0.9% 5.0% 5.0%
Colorado St. 15.1% 11.8% 3.3% 3.8%
Pittsburgh 3.8% 0.2% 3.6% 3.6%
Penn St. 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
South Carolina 2.7% 0.1% 2.7% 2.7%
Minnesota 2.4% 0.0% 2.4% 2.4%
Florida St. 2.5% 0.1% 2.4% 2.4%
South Florida 22.8% 21.7% 1.2% 1.5%
Tulsa 16.3% 15.4% 0.9% 1.1%
Utah 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Richmond 4.7% 3.8% 0.9% 0.9%
New Mexico 5.8% 5.0% 0.9% 0.9%
St. Bonaventure 3.4% 2.7% 0.7% 0.8%
Rhode Island 3.6% 3.0% 0.6% 0.6%
DePaul 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5%
Nevada 4.4% 4.0% 0.4% 0.4%
Grand Canyon 6.5% 6.1% 0.4% 0.4%
Rutgers 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4%
San Francisco 1.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.4%
Belmont 21.1% 20.8% 0.3% 0.3%
Wyoming 4.6% 4.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Davidson 1.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Seattle 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Wichita St. 13.2% 13.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Illinois St. 16.4% 16.3% 0.1% 0.1%
UAB 8.9% 8.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Boston College 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Murray St. 12.0% 11.9% 0.1% 0.1%
New Mexico St. 17.4% 17.4% 0.1% 0.1%
William & Mary 21.0% 21.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Miami (OH) 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 15.3% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 1.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 28.0% 28.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 16.2% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 24.7% 24.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 16.6% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0%