Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26

Last Updated: Feb 4, 2025
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View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Auburn Auto 100.0% 37.1% 62.9% 100.0%
1  Duke Auto 100.0% 66.4% 33.6% 100.0%
1  Houston Auto 100.0% 39.9% 60.1% 100.0%
1  Alabama At-Large 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 100.0%
2  Tennessee At-Large 100.0% 13.4% 86.6% 100.0%
2  Florida At-Large 100.0% 14.2% 85.8% 100.0%
2  Purdue Auto 100.0% 19.7% 80.2% 100.0%
2  Kansas At-Large 99.9% 13.6% 86.3% 99.9%
3  Texas Tech At-Large 99.9% 11.9% 88.0% 99.9%
3  Arizona At-Large 99.4% 13.6% 85.8% 99.3%
3  Michigan St. At-Large 99.7% 16.0% 83.7% 99.6%
3  Texas A&M At-Large 99.9% 5.0% 94.8% 99.9%
4  Maryland At-Large 99.6% 12.9% 86.8% 99.6%
4  Michigan At-Large 99.3% 12.2% 87.1% 99.2%
4  Kentucky At-Large 99.1% 3.6% 95.5% 99.0%
4  Iowa St. At-Large 99.7% 11.2% 88.5% 99.7%
5  Illinois At-Large 99.1% 12.7% 86.5% 99.0%
5  St. John's Auto 98.8% 31.5% 67.3% 98.2%
5  Wisconsin At-Large 99.7% 12.3% 87.5% 99.7%
5  Marquette At-Large 99.7% 21.7% 78.0% 99.7%
6  Missouri At-Large 98.6% 3.7% 94.9% 98.6%
6  Baylor At-Large 95.4% 5.4% 90.0% 95.1%
6  Mississippi At-Large 96.5% 2.8% 93.7% 96.4%
6  UCLA At-Large 97.4% 5.7% 91.7% 97.2%
7  Connecticut At-Large 97.3% 18.2% 79.1% 96.7%
7  St. Mary's At-Large 94.5% 30.9% 63.6% 92.1%
7  Creighton At-Large 96.7% 16.7% 80.0% 96.0%
7  Texas At-Large 87.2% 1.4% 85.8% 87.0%
8  Ohio St. At-Large 86.7% 4.5% 82.2% 86.1%
8  Mississippi St. At-Large 86.9% 1.0% 85.9% 86.8%
8  Louisville At-Large 93.3% 11.0% 82.3% 92.5%
8  Gonzaga Auto 93.3% 56.0% 37.3% 84.8%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  Oregon At-Large 91.0% 1.1% 89.9% 90.8%
9  Oklahoma At-Large 81.6% 0.7% 80.9% 81.5%
9  West Virginia At-Large 83.3% 1.1% 82.2% 83.1%
9  BYU At-Large 77.0% 2.5% 74.5% 76.4%
10  Clemson At-Large 78.0% 9.0% 69.0% 75.8%
10  New Mexico Auto 75.0% 29.4% 45.6% 64.6%
10  Memphis Auto 83.4% 50.2% 33.2% 66.7%
10  Nebraska At-Large 54.6% 0.7% 53.9% 54.3%
11  Georgia At-Large 56.2% 0.4% 55.8% 56.0%
11  San Diego St. At-Large 56.3% 18.3% 38.1% 46.6%
11  Utah St. At-Large 62.0% 19.0% 43.0% 53.1%
11  Vanderbilt At-Large 44.7% 0.2% 44.5% 44.6%
11  Arkansas At-Large 37.2% 0.2% 37.0% 37.0%
11  Virginia Commonwealth Auto 46.8% 41.7% 5.1% 8.8%
12  Drake Auto 38.9% 36.3% 2.6% 4.1%
12  UC San Diego Auto 42.7% 42.4% 0.4% 0.6%
12  Arkansas St. Auto 38.6% 38.6% 0.0% 0.0%
12  Liberty Auto 29.5% 29.5% 0.1% 0.1%
13  Yale Auto 59.1% 59.1%
13  McNeese St. Auto 67.2% 67.2%
13  Grand Canyon Auto 58.7% 58.7%
13  Samford Auto 31.6% 31.6%
14  Akron Auto 41.9% 41.9%
14  High Point Auto 43.6% 43.6%
14  South Dakota St. Auto 32.2% 32.2%
14  Lipscomb Auto 36.0% 36.0%
15  UNC Wilmington Auto 25.0% 25.0%
15  Wisconsin-Milwaukee Auto 24.0% 24.0%
15  Northern Colorado Auto 32.6% 32.6%
15  Bryant Auto 40.3% 40.3%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 46.4% 46.4%
16  Central Connecticut St. Auto 52.5% 52.5%
16  Quinnipiac Auto 24.6% 24.6%
16  Southern Auto 34.0% 34.0%
16  American Auto 20.0% 20.0%
16  Arkansas Little Rock Auto 29.8% 29.8%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
West Virginia 83.3% 1.1% 82.2% 83.1%
Oklahoma 81.6% 0.7% 80.9% 81.5%
BYU 77.0% 2.5% 74.5% 76.4%
Clemson 78.0% 9.0% 69.0% 75.8%
Georgia 56.2% 0.4% 55.8% 56.0%
Nebraska 54.6% 0.7% 53.9% 54.3%
Utah St. 62.0% 19.0% 43.0% 53.1%
San Diego St. 56.3% 18.3% 38.1% 46.6%
Vanderbilt 44.7% 0.2% 44.5% 44.6%
Arkansas 37.2% 0.2% 37.0% 37.0%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
SMU 38.5% 3.9% 34.5% 36.0%
North Carolina 38.7% 4.4% 34.3% 35.9%
Pittsburgh 36.9% 1.9% 35.0% 35.7%
Xavier 38.6% 5.5% 33.1% 35.1%
USC 29.9% 0.7% 29.3% 29.5%
Indiana 27.8% 0.7% 27.2% 27.3%
Wake Forest 21.7% 1.9% 19.8% 20.2%
Central Florida 18.3% 0.2% 18.1% 18.1%
Arizona St. 18.2% 0.1% 18.1% 18.1%
Boise St. 28.3% 16.6% 11.8% 14.1%
Iowa 13.7% 0.4% 13.4% 13.4%
Villanova 16.1% 3.5% 12.6% 13.0%
Northwestern 12.8% 0.2% 12.6% 12.6%
Penn St. 12.7% 0.3% 12.4% 12.4%
Cincinnati 8.6% 0.2% 8.4% 8.4%
Kansas St. 6.0% 0.2% 5.8% 5.8%
Rutgers 5.3% 0.2% 5.1% 5.1%
Santa Clara 9.9% 5.1% 4.8% 5.0%
TCU 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Stanford 4.7% 0.6% 4.0% 4.1%
Georgetown 4.0% 0.8% 3.2% 3.3%
Utah 3.2% 0.0% 3.2% 3.2%
LSU 2.7% 0.0% 2.7% 2.7%
UC Irvine 43.5% 42.0% 1.5% 2.6%
Colorado St. 10.7% 8.9% 1.8% 2.0%
San Francisco 5.8% 3.9% 1.9% 1.9%
Providence 2.9% 1.2% 1.8% 1.8%
Oregon St. 5.1% 3.3% 1.7% 1.8%
Dayton 13.1% 12.0% 1.1% 1.2%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
George Mason 16.9% 16.0% 0.9% 1.0%
Washington 1.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9%
Minnesota 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
North Texas 21.8% 21.3% 0.5% 0.6%
Notre Dame 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5%
Florida St. 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5%
Butler 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4%
Nevada 4.9% 4.6% 0.3% 0.3%
Washington St. 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
South Carolina 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Bradley 24.4% 24.3% 0.1% 0.1%
St. Bonaventure 5.7% 5.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Oklahoma St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Saint Joseph's 10.8% 10.8% 0.1% 0.1%
North Carolina St. 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%