Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27

Last Updated: Dec 24, 2025
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View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Michigan Auto 100.0% 51.6% 48.4% 100.0%
1  Arizona Auto 100.0% 31.5% 68.5% 100.0%
1  Iowa St. At-Large 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 100.0%
1  Purdue At-Large 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 99.9%
2  Duke Auto 100.0% 42.3% 57.7% 100.0%
2  Connecticut Auto 100.0% 53.4% 46.6% 100.0%
2  Vanderbilt Auto 99.9% 25.5% 74.4% 99.9%
2  Gonzaga Auto 100.0% 79.4% 20.6% 99.9%
3  BYU At-Large 99.7% 13.7% 86.1% 99.7%
3  Houston At-Large 99.7% 15.9% 83.9% 99.7%
3  Illinois At-Large 99.3% 11.5% 87.8% 99.3%
3  Michigan St. At-Large 99.2% 5.2% 94.0% 99.2%
4  Alabama At-Large 97.4% 12.5% 84.8% 97.0%
4  Kansas At-Large 96.9% 6.5% 90.4% 96.7%
4  Louisville At-Large 98.3% 17.5% 80.9% 98.0%
4  Florida At-Large 94.6% 14.7% 79.9% 93.6%
5  Tennessee At-Large 94.6% 12.9% 81.7% 93.8%
5  North Carolina At-Large 97.7% 10.3% 87.4% 97.5%
5  Nebraska At-Large 97.2% 2.6% 94.5% 97.1%
5  Kentucky At-Large 84.4% 8.4% 76.0% 83.0%
6  Iowa At-Large 91.1% 3.8% 87.3% 90.7%
6  Arkansas At-Large 88.1% 6.6% 81.5% 87.3%
6  Texas Tech At-Large 88.5% 3.3% 85.2% 88.1%
6  Georgia At-Large 89.4% 8.4% 81.1% 88.5%
7  St. John's At-Large 90.5% 19.9% 70.6% 88.2%
7  Baylor At-Large 81.8% 2.6% 79.2% 81.3%
7  Virginia At-Large 92.1% 8.3% 83.8% 91.4%
7  Auburn At-Large 69.6% 3.3% 66.3% 68.6%
8  UCLA At-Large 79.6% 1.8% 77.8% 79.2%
8  Villanova At-Large 86.3% 11.0% 75.4% 84.6%
8  Ohio St. At-Large 74.4% 1.5% 72.9% 74.0%
8  North Carolina St. At-Large 81.4% 7.3% 74.0% 79.9%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  USC At-Large 76.3% 0.7% 75.6% 76.1%
9  Indiana At-Large 68.4% 1.7% 66.7% 67.8%
9  LSU At-Large 65.1% 2.1% 63.0% 64.3%
9  SMU At-Large 69.7% 3.0% 66.7% 68.8%
10  Miami (FL) At-Large 70.4% 5.0% 65.4% 68.8%
10  Clemson At-Large 68.3% 3.3% 65.1% 67.3%
10  Creighton At-Large 61.0% 8.5% 52.5% 57.3%
10  Oklahoma At-Large 48.4% 1.3% 47.1% 47.7%
10  Central Florida At-Large 54.0% 0.4% 53.5% 53.8%
11  Butler At-Large 49.1% 3.0% 46.0% 47.5%
11  Seton Hall At-Large 44.5% 2.3% 42.2% 43.2%
11  Utah St. Auto 73.0% 36.0% 37.0% 57.8%
11  Saint Louis Auto 58.9% 38.0% 20.9% 33.7%
11  Belmont Auto 29.5% 27.8% 1.7% 2.4%
12  Memphis Auto 25.3% 24.5% 0.7% 1.0%
12  Akron Auto 45.2% 45.0% 0.1% 0.3%
12  UC San Diego Auto 44.7% 44.4% 0.4% 0.7%
12  McNeese St. Auto 59.1% 59.0% 0.1% 0.3%
13  Yale Auto 56.9% 56.8% 0.2% 0.4%
13  Utah Valley Auto 53.7% 53.6% 0.0% 0.1%
13  Liberty Auto 28.2% 28.1% 0.1% 0.1%
13  Hofstra Auto 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 0.0%
14  High Point Auto 50.3% 50.3%
14  Arkansas St. Auto 27.2% 27.2%
14  Oakland Auto 26.4% 26.4%
14  St. Thomas Auto 34.8% 34.8%
15  Lipscomb Auto 32.9% 32.9%
15  Marist Auto 24.1% 24.1%
15  East Tennessee St. Auto 29.3% 29.3%
15  Montana St. Auto 16.7% 16.7%
16  Tennessee Martin Auto 20.0% 20.0%
16  Colgate Auto 32.8% 32.8%
16  Vermont Auto 47.0% 47.0%
16  LIU Brooklyn Auto 41.5% 41.5%
16  Southern Auto 24.0% 24.0%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 40.9% 40.9%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Villanova 86.3% 11.0% 75.4% 84.6%
Kentucky 84.4% 8.4% 76.0% 83.0%
Baylor 81.8% 2.6% 79.2% 81.3%
North Carolina St. 81.4% 7.3% 74.0% 79.9%
UCLA 79.6% 1.8% 77.8% 79.2%
USC 76.3% 0.7% 75.6% 76.1%
Ohio St. 74.4% 1.5% 72.9% 74.0%
Miami (FL) 70.4% 5.0% 65.4% 68.8%
SMU 69.7% 3.0% 66.7% 68.8%
Auburn 69.6% 3.3% 66.3% 68.6%
Indiana 68.4% 1.7% 66.7% 67.8%
Clemson 68.3% 3.3% 65.1% 67.3%
LSU 65.1% 2.1% 63.0% 64.3%
Creighton 61.0% 8.5% 52.5% 57.3%
Central Florida 54.0% 0.4% 53.5% 53.8%
Oklahoma 48.4% 1.3% 47.1% 47.7%
Butler 49.1% 3.0% 46.0% 47.5%
Seton Hall 44.5% 2.3% 42.2% 43.2%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Texas 43.2% 1.8% 41.5% 42.2%
Texas A&M 40.2% 1.7% 38.6% 39.2%
Oklahoma St. 36.6% 0.2% 36.4% 36.5%
TCU 34.7% 0.3% 34.4% 34.5%
Washington 34.3% 0.3% 34.0% 34.1%
Wisconsin 31.3% 0.4% 30.9% 31.0%
St. Mary's 37.7% 13.7% 24.0% 27.8%
California 28.1% 0.6% 27.5% 27.6%
Boise St. 38.2% 16.2% 22.0% 26.3%
Kansas St. 22.2% 0.2% 22.0% 22.1%
Wake Forest 19.7% 0.7% 19.0% 19.2%
Notre Dame 18.8% 0.6% 18.2% 18.3%
Virginia Tech 18.2% 0.4% 17.8% 17.9%
Missouri 17.3% 0.4% 17.0% 17.0%
Colorado 16.2% 0.1% 16.1% 16.1%
Arizona St. 15.6% 0.1% 15.5% 15.6%
San Diego St. 27.6% 15.7% 11.9% 14.1%
Stanford 14.1% 0.2% 13.9% 13.9%
Virginia Commonwealth 34.9% 24.4% 10.5% 13.8%
New Mexico 21.6% 10.2% 11.4% 12.7%
Syracuse 10.3% 0.3% 10.0% 10.1%
Northwestern 9.9% 0.1% 9.8% 9.8%
West Virginia 9.6% 0.1% 9.5% 9.5%
Oregon 8.5% 0.1% 8.5% 8.5%
Mississippi 8.6% 0.3% 8.3% 8.3%
Cincinnati 6.6% 0.1% 6.4% 6.5%
Mississippi St. 5.5% 0.1% 5.4% 5.4%
Xavier 4.6% 0.4% 4.2% 4.3%
Georgetown 4.6% 0.4% 4.2% 4.2%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Pittsburgh 3.5% 0.2% 3.3% 3.3%
Dayton 13.6% 10.6% 3.0% 3.3%
Providence 3.7% 0.8% 2.9% 2.9%
Nevada 8.0% 5.7% 2.3% 2.5%
South Carolina 2.5% 0.1% 2.4% 2.4%
Minnesota 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 2.2%
Santa Clara 4.6% 2.7% 1.9% 2.0%
Colorado St. 7.0% 5.2% 1.8% 1.9%
Maryland 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 1.8%
George Mason 8.4% 6.7% 1.6% 1.8%
Grand Canyon 7.9% 6.6% 1.3% 1.4%
Tulsa 17.3% 16.2% 1.0% 1.2%
George Washington 9.8% 9.1% 0.7% 0.8%
South Florida 20.3% 19.6% 0.7% 0.8%
Utah 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6%
San Francisco 2.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.5%
Illinois St. 21.4% 21.0% 0.4% 0.4%
Murray St. 14.4% 14.1% 0.3% 0.4%
Richmond 3.9% 3.5% 0.4% 0.4%
DePaul 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3%
Wyoming 3.5% 3.1% 0.3% 0.3%
Northern Iowa 17.1% 16.8% 0.3% 0.3%
Seattle 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2%
St. Bonaventure 2.6% 2.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Marquette 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Florida St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Wichita St. 13.4% 13.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Miami (OH) 16.5% 16.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Penn St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Rhode Island 2.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Florida Atlantic 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 23.1% 23.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 19.3% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Bowling Green 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0%