Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27

Last Updated: Mar 4, 2026
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View: Probabilistic Seeding


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Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Michigan Auto 100.0% 50.4% 49.6% 100.0%
1  Duke Auto 100.0% 71.4% 28.6% 100.0%
1  Arizona Auto 100.0% 46.3% 53.7% 100.0%
1  Connecticut Auto 100.0% 50.6% 49.5% 100.0%
2  Florida Auto 100.0% 52.4% 47.6% 100.0%
2  Houston At-Large 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 100.0%
2  Michigan St. At-Large 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 100.0%
2  Illinois At-Large 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 100.0%
3  Purdue At-Large 100.0% 7.3% 92.8% 100.0%
3  Nebraska At-Large 100.0% 7.8% 92.2% 100.0%
3  Texas Tech At-Large 100.0% 9.6% 90.4% 100.0%
3  Iowa St. At-Large 100.0% 8.5% 91.5% 100.0%
4  Alabama At-Large 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 100.0%
4  Gonzaga Auto 100.0% 67.1% 32.9% 100.0%
4  Virginia At-Large 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 100.0%
4  Kansas At-Large 100.0% 6.2% 93.8% 100.0%
5  Arkansas At-Large 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 99.9%
5  Tennessee At-Large 99.9% 9.8% 90.1% 99.9%
5  Vanderbilt At-Large 100.0% 4.9% 95.0% 100.0%
5  St. John's At-Large 99.8% 30.8% 69.0% 99.7%
6  North Carolina At-Large 99.8% 4.2% 95.6% 99.8%
6  Louisville At-Large 99.5% 8.3% 91.2% 99.5%
6  Kentucky At-Large 98.3% 2.3% 96.0% 98.2%
6  Wisconsin At-Large 98.0% 1.4% 96.7% 98.0%
7  Georgia At-Large 98.2% 2.4% 95.9% 98.2%
7  BYU At-Large 98.3% 1.7% 96.5% 98.2%
7  Texas At-Large 91.6% 2.2% 89.4% 91.4%
7  St. Mary's At-Large 97.5% 22.3% 75.2% 96.7%
8  UCLA At-Large 94.7% 1.0% 93.7% 94.7%
8  Miami (FL) At-Large 92.1% 2.7% 89.4% 91.8%
8  Iowa At-Large 92.3% 0.8% 91.5% 92.3%
8  Texas A&M At-Large 88.5% 1.9% 86.6% 88.2%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  TCU At-Large 89.5% 0.5% 89.0% 89.4%
9  North Carolina St. At-Large 89.7% 1.7% 88.0% 89.6%
9  Clemson At-Large 90.3% 1.5% 88.8% 90.2%
9  Villanova At-Large 92.8% 9.7% 83.0% 92.0%
10  Saint Louis Auto 92.5% 54.5% 38.1% 83.6%
10  Utah St. Auto 86.4% 29.8% 56.6% 80.7%
10  Central Florida At-Large 77.4% 0.2% 77.2% 77.4%
10  SMU At-Large 70.6% 0.9% 69.7% 70.4%
11  Ohio St. At-Large 80.4% 0.7% 79.7% 80.3%
11  Missouri At-Large 70.2% 0.5% 69.7% 70.1%
11  Santa Clara At-Large 65.3% 10.0% 55.3% 61.5%
11  New Mexico At-Large 52.4% 20.2% 32.3% 40.4%
11  Cincinnati At-Large 40.6% 0.7% 39.8% 40.1%
11  South Florida Auto 45.2% 41.0% 4.1% 7.0%
12  Belmont Auto 38.4% 36.8% 1.6% 2.5%
12  Akron Auto 49.2% 49.2% 0.0% 0.1%
12  McNeese St. Auto 48.5% 48.4% 0.1% 0.3%
12  Yale Auto 55.7% 55.7% 0.0% 0.0%
13  Utah Valley Auto 54.2% 54.2%
13  High Point Auto 61.9% 61.9%
13  UNC Wilmington Auto 29.8% 29.8%
13  Sam Houston St. Auto 28.4% 28.4%
14  Hawaii Auto 33.7% 33.7%
14  North Dakota St. Auto 39.0% 39.0%
14  Troy Auto 34.1% 34.1%
14  Robert Morris Auto 23.0% 23.0%
15  Navy Auto 53.1% 53.1%
15  Portland St. Auto 24.3% 24.3%
15  East Tennessee St. Auto 34.5% 34.5%
15  Central Arkansas Auto 26.7% 26.7%
16  Merrimack Auto 23.5% 23.5%
16  Tennessee St. Auto 38.3% 38.3%
16  Maryland Baltimore Co. Auto 45.5% 45.5%
16  LIU Brooklyn Auto 52.1% 52.1%
16  Howard Auto 71.9% 71.9%
16  Bethune-Cookman Auto 35.7% 35.7%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Ohio St. 80.4% 0.7% 79.7% 80.3%
Central Florida 77.4% 0.2% 77.2% 77.4%
SMU 70.6% 0.9% 69.7% 70.4%
Missouri 70.2% 0.5% 69.7% 70.1%
Santa Clara 65.3% 10.0% 55.3% 61.5%
New Mexico 52.4% 20.2% 32.3% 40.4%
Cincinnati 40.6% 0.7% 39.8% 40.1%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Auburn 37.7% 0.8% 36.9% 37.2%
Seton Hall 36.4% 4.7% 31.7% 33.3%
Indiana 32.3% 0.3% 32.1% 32.2%
Virginia Commonwealth 44.2% 24.7% 19.5% 25.9%
San Diego St. 39.0% 21.4% 17.6% 22.4%
Virginia Tech 18.0% 0.1% 17.9% 17.9%
Miami (OH) 39.7% 31.0% 8.7% 12.6%
Boise St. 18.4% 7.4% 11.0% 11.9%
California 11.6% 0.1% 11.5% 11.5%
West Virginia 11.3% 0.1% 11.2% 11.2%
USC 8.3% 0.0% 8.3% 8.3%
Oklahoma 8.6% 0.5% 8.1% 8.1%
Stanford 8.0% 0.1% 7.9% 7.9%
Arizona St. 3.8% 0.0% 3.7% 3.7%
Baylor 3.2% 0.2% 3.0% 3.0%
Tulsa 30.9% 29.1% 1.8% 2.5%
Oklahoma St. 2.4% 0.0% 2.4% 2.4%
Dayton 10.5% 8.6% 1.9% 2.1%
Grand Canyon 12.2% 11.0% 1.2% 1.3%
Washington 1.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9%
Colorado 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9%
Florida St. 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6%
Minnesota 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4%
Nevada 5.6% 5.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Providence 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Wake Forest 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Colorado St. 2.4% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Butler 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1%
DePaul 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Creighton 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%