TCU
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#68
Expected Predictive Rating+8.5#67
Pace66.1#237
Improvement-0.4#210

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#140
First Shot-0.4#190
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#86
Layup/Dunks+3.0#78
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#211
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#246
Freethrows-0.6#216
Improvement+1.1#121

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#36
First Shot+5.9#34
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#114
Layups/Dunks+2.1#92
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#255
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#50
Freethrows+1.1#103
Improvement-1.5#270
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.0% 8.1% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.0% 8.0% 2.4%
Average Seed 10.3 10.3 10.6
.500 or above 36.0% 51.7% 22.6%
.500 or above in Conference 15.7% 25.3% 7.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four2.7% 4.2% 1.5%
First Round3.4% 5.8% 1.4%
Second Round1.1% 1.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Virginia (Home) - 46.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 23 - 56 - 16
Quad 35 - 111 - 17
Quad 44 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 340   Florida A&M W 105-59 97%     1 - 0 +31.9 +26.7 +5.7
  Nov 08, 2024 164   Florida Gulf Coast W 67-51 83%     2 - 0 +13.7 -1.2 +16.4
  Nov 12, 2024 184   Texas St. W 76-71 86%     3 - 0 +1.2 -4.1 +5.2
  Nov 15, 2024 18   @ Michigan L 64-76 16%     3 - 1 +6.6 -2.5 +9.6
  Nov 19, 2024 320   Alcorn St. W 71-48 96%     4 - 1 +11.1 -1.3 +14.0
  Nov 28, 2024 64   Santa Clara L 52-69 48%     4 - 2 -8.5 -17.1 +8.4
  Nov 29, 2024 77   Colorado St. L 72-76 OT 52%     4 - 3 +3.4 -5.0 +8.9
  Dec 05, 2024 44   Xavier W 76-72 45%     5 - 3 +13.1 +11.5 +1.9
  Dec 08, 2024 57   Vanderbilt L 74-83 43%     5 - 4 +0.8 +1.4 -0.1
  Dec 16, 2024 156   South Alabama W 58-49 82%     6 - 4 +7.1 -4.2 +12.7
  Dec 22, 2024 189   Montana St. W 82-48 86%     7 - 4 +30.2 +8.3 +22.3
  Dec 30, 2024 10   @ Arizona L 81-90 13%     7 - 5 0 - 1 +11.3 +23.5 -12.8
  Jan 04, 2025 55   Kansas St. W 63-62 52%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +8.4 -1.0 +9.5
  Jan 06, 2025 3   @ Houston L 46-65 6%     8 - 6 1 - 2 +6.2 -4.8 +7.3
  Jan 11, 2025 33   BYU W 71-67 37%     9 - 6 2 - 2 +15.2 +5.9 +9.6
  Jan 15, 2025 84   Utah L 65-73 62%     9 - 7 2 - 3 -3.4 -2.2 -1.5
  Jan 19, 2025 20   @ Baylor W 74-71 16%     10 - 7 3 - 3 +21.3 +10.5 +10.9
  Jan 22, 2025 7   Kansas L 61-74 21%     10 - 8 3 - 4 +3.5 +0.4 +2.5
  Jan 25, 2025 62   @ Central Florida L 58-85 37%     10 - 9 3 - 5 -15.6 -8.7 -7.5
  Jan 29, 2025 12   @ Texas Tech L 57-71 13%     10 - 10 3 - 6 +6.1 +0.2 +4.0
  Feb 02, 2025 98   Colorado W 68-57 70%     11 - 10 4 - 6 +13.4 +6.3 +8.5
  Feb 05, 2025 39   West Virginia L 63-65 46%    
  Feb 08, 2025 8   @ Iowa St. L 62-75 11%    
  Feb 12, 2025 102   Oklahoma St. W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 61   @ Arizona St. L 66-70 35%    
  Feb 18, 2025 12   Texas Tech L 65-72 26%    
  Feb 22, 2025 59   @ Cincinnati L 61-65 32%    
  Feb 25, 2025 39   @ West Virginia L 60-67 25%    
  Mar 01, 2025 62   Central Florida W 74-73 57%    
  Mar 04, 2025 20   Baylor L 67-72 33%    
  Mar 08, 2025 98   @ Colorado W 68-67 51%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 2.0 0.2 4.7 7th
8th 0.2 3.5 4.7 0.9 9.3 8th
9th 0.1 3.5 8.6 2.4 0.1 14.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.7 9.7 5.2 0.2 16.8 10th
11th 0.5 8.0 8.0 0.6 0.0 17.2 11th
12th 0.1 4.0 9.7 1.7 0.0 15.4 12th
13th 1.2 6.4 2.8 0.2 10.6 13th
14th 0.1 2.7 2.7 0.3 5.8 14th
15th 0.8 1.4 0.3 2.4 15th
16th 0.1 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.9 5.4 14.0 22.6 23.2 18.2 9.9 4.4 1.1 0.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.3% 86.2% 86.2% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 86.2%
12-8 1.1% 70.8% 0.9% 69.8% 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 70.5%
11-9 4.4% 42.3% 0.2% 42.1% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.0 2.6 42.2%
10-10 9.9% 17.1% 17.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.2 8.2 17.1%
9-11 18.2% 1.9% 1.9% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 17.8 1.9%
8-12 23.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 11.4 0.1 0.0 23.1 0.3%
7-13 22.6% 22.6
6-14 14.0% 14.0
5-15 5.4% 5.4
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.3 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.5 0.3 95.0 5.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%