Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#291
Expected Predictive Rating-9.2#314
Pace64.1#295
Improvement+1.2#127

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#197
First Shot+0.1#170
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#250
Layup/Dunks-3.8#311
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#19
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#92
Freethrows-2.8#332
Improvement-1.7#288

Defense
Total Defense-6.2#343
First Shot-6.6#350
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#151
Layups/Dunks-1.7#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#331
Freethrows-3.9#357
Improvement+2.9#37
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 6.8% 11.7% 2.2%
.500 or above in Conference 16.6% 27.0% 7.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 1.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Home) - 48.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 411 - 811 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 161   @ California Baptist L 78-83 18%     0 - 1 -2.2 +9.2 -11.7
  Nov 12, 2024 348   Prairie View W 84-81 77%     1 - 1 -11.9 +1.8 -13.8
  Nov 16, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 92-64 90%     2 - 1 +6.7 +10.0 -2.1
  Nov 22, 2024 250   @ Northern Arizona L 74-75 34%     2 - 2 -3.8 +4.9 -8.8
  Nov 25, 2024 156   @ South Alabama L 63-84 17%     2 - 3 -18.0 -1.4 -18.2
  Nov 27, 2024 354   Western Illinois W 86-75 73%     3 - 3 -2.3 +11.5 -13.2
  Dec 05, 2024 293   Northwestern St. L 70-72 60%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -11.6 +3.3 -15.2
  Dec 07, 2024 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 65-53 76%     4 - 4 1 - 1 -2.3 -7.0 +5.9
  Dec 10, 2024 2   @ Duke L 46-72 1%     4 - 5 -0.5 -8.0 +4.1
  Jan 04, 2025 270   @ Stephen F. Austin W 55-49 37%     5 - 5 2 - 1 +2.4 -5.8 +9.0
  Jan 06, 2025 218   @ Lamar L 58-72 27%     5 - 6 2 - 2 -14.7 -8.3 -7.7
  Jan 11, 2025 290   @ Houston Christian L 76-81 40%     5 - 7 2 - 3 -9.6 +10.4 -20.6
  Jan 13, 2025 197   Nicholls St. L 82-88 39%     5 - 8 2 - 4 -10.2 +8.0 -18.2
  Jan 18, 2025 186   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 63-69 37%     5 - 9 2 - 5 -9.8 -13.8 +4.3
  Jan 20, 2025 264   UT Rio Grande Valley L 78-85 55%     5 - 10 2 - 6 -15.3 +4.6 -20.2
  Jan 25, 2025 228   @ SE Louisiana L 63-86 29%     5 - 11 2 - 7 -24.2 -9.2 -15.0
  Jan 27, 2025 351   @ New Orleans W 74-58 63%     6 - 11 3 - 7 +5.6 -4.7 +10.3
  Feb 01, 2025 290   Houston Christian W 74-64 60%     7 - 11 4 - 7 +0.4 +7.4 -5.4
  Feb 03, 2025 87   @ McNeese St. L 65-67 7%     7 - 12 4 - 8 +7.0 +9.2 -2.6
  Feb 08, 2025 228   SE Louisiana L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 10, 2025 351   New Orleans W 80-72 80%    
  Feb 15, 2025 186   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69-77 20%    
  Feb 17, 2025 264   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 74-78 35%    
  Feb 22, 2025 270   Stephen F. Austin W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 24, 2025 218   Lamar L 69-70 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 343   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 71-69 57%    
  Mar 03, 2025 293   Northwestern St. W 70-67 61%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 0.3 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.1 2.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.7 1.0 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 7.7 5.6 0.2 15.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 11.3 10.4 1.2 25.2 8th
9th 0.4 4.4 14.5 12.7 2.2 0.0 34.2 9th
10th 0.1 2.5 6.1 4.3 0.6 0.0 13.6 10th
11th 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.4 3.7 10.7 21.1 26.2 21.3 12.4 3.6 0.7 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 14.0 0.0 0.6
11-9 3.6% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
10-10 12.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 12.2
9-11 21.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 21.2
8-12 26.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 26.1
7-13 21.1% 21.1
6-14 10.7% 10.7
5-15 3.7% 3.7
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.4%