Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.7 #223
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 #246
Pace 64.2 #305
Improvement -3.0 #313

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #223 D- C- A- D- D-
Defense #232 C- D+ C D D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #278 1.02 #327 -4.4 #326
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #66 0.74 #204 +2.1 #79
Three Pointers 38% #244 0.99 #231 -2.1 #258
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #302 -4.4 #302
Freethrows 14.6 #312 71% #228 10.4 #306
Second Chance 29.7% #212 1.01 #224 0.30 #214
Turnovers 13.6% #31
Total Offense -1.9 #223

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #19 1.21 #256 -5.6 #348
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #273 0.85 #309 +0.2 #176
Three Pointers 36% #304 0.95 #93 +3.7 #48
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #237 -1.7 #238
Freethrows 19.5 #291 74% #254 14.4 #303
Second Chance 31.9% #244 1.13 #288 0.36 #279
Turnovers 16.3% #193
Total Defense -1.8 #232

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #310 1.8% #331
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.7% #284 1.5% #210
Possession Length 18.6 #301 16.8 #93
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #315 0.22 #329
Improvement -4.9 #361 +1.9 #69

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 1.8% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 15.7% 23.1% 7.2%
.500 or above in Conference 36.1% 48.5% 21.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 1.8% 7.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.3% 1.7% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TX A&M Corpus Christi (Home) - 53.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 52 - 11
Quad 410 - 612 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 96 @Colorado St. L 64 - 98 13% -18  0 - 1 -26 -4 F F A+ -23 F F D-
 Sun, Nov 16 37 @Indiana L 61 - 69 4% -10  0 - 2 +8 +0 C D+ A+ +8 A+ C C+
 Thu, Nov 20 329 Southern Indiana W 87 - 81 75% +8  1 - 2 -5 +9 A- C+ C+ -14 F B- D-
 Sat, Nov 22 98 High Point L 80 - 91 20% -5  1 - 3 -6 +12 D A+ A+ -19 D F D+
 Mon, Dec 1 87 McNeese St. W 71 - 67 23% +5  2 - 3 1 - 0 +8 +4 B+ A C +4 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 232 @Nicholls St. L 67 - 74 40% -3  2 - 4 1 - 1 -8 -2 F A+ A+ -6 D B- F
 Mon, Dec 8 235 @New Orleans L 83 - 84 40% -8  2 - 5 1 - 2 -2 +8 B+ A D -10 F A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 15 45 @TCU L 65 - 69 6% +4  2 - 6 +10 +7 A D C+ +2 A+ F D-
 Sun, Dec 21 315 Northern Arizona W 90 - 66 80% +10  3 - 6 +12 +13 B- B- A+ -1 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 30 272 SE Louisiana W 79 - 70 70% +4  4 - 6 2 - 2 -0 +2 C- B- A- -2 B+ C C-
 Sat, Jan 3 298 Houston Christian W 73 - 56 75% +9  5 - 6 3 - 2 +6 -4 F F A+ +11 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Jan 5 218 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 67 - 80 37% -8  5 - 7 3 - 3 -13 +1 F D A+ -15 C- F D
 Sat, Jan 10 211 @Lamar L 51 - 63 37% -5  5 - 8 3 - 4 -12 -12 D+ F D+ -1 C- B+ A
 Mon, Jan 12 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 46 - 56 15% -7  5 - 9 3 - 5 -3 -19 F F D- +16 A+ D+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 276 Northwestern St. W 76 - 74 71% -4  6 - 9 4 - 5 -7 +1 F A+ F -8 F B- B+
 Mon, Jan 19 308 East Texas A&M L 58 - 80 77% -11  6 - 10 4 - 6 -33 -9 F D+ A+ -28 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 186 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 67 - 66 54%
 Mon, Jan 26 298 @Houston Christian W 71 - 70 55%
 Sat, Jan 31 218 UT Rio Grande Valley W 72 - 69 60%
 Mon, Feb 2 186 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64 - 69 32%
 Sat, Feb 7 87 @McNeese St. L 64 - 78 10%
 Mon, Feb 9 272 @SE Louisiana L 67 - 68 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 232 Nicholls St. W 74 - 71 61%
 Mon, Feb 16 235 New Orleans W 78 - 75 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 308 @East Texas A&M W 71 - 69 57%
 Mon, Feb 23 276 @Northwestern St. L 70 - 71 49%
 Sat, Feb 28 211 Lamar W 68 - 65 59%
 Mon, Mar 2 105 Stephen F. Austin L 65 - 70 32%
Totals 12 - 16 10 - 12 -4 -2 D- C- A- -2 C- D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 2.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 6.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.8 5.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.8 7.6 3.7 0.5 0.0 14.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.6 8.5 5.1 0.6 15.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 6.3 6.9 1.0 0.0 15.0 7th
8th 0.2 4.4 7.4 1.7 0.0 13.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 2.0 6.0 2.3 0.1 0.0 10.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.8 2.3 0.1 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.8 0.3 3.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.6 12th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.2 7.9 13.8 17.9 20.2 16.7 11.1 5.8 2.0 0.5 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.0%
15-7 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6 0.1% 0.0 0.1
15-7 0.5% 9.8% 9.8% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-8 2.0% 6.4% 6.4% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
13-9 5.8% 6.1% 6.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.4
12-10 11.1% 2.8% 2.8% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 10.8
11-11 16.7% 1.4% 1.4% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 16.5
10-12 20.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.2 20.0
9-13 17.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.8
8-14 13.8% 13.8
7-15 7.9% 7.9
6-16 3.2% 3.2
5-17 0.8% 0.8
4-18 0.1% 0.1
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 15.0 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%