Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -5.8 265
Results Rating -7.3 283
Consistency 0.17 255
Pace 63.7 309
Improvement -3.4 308

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 178 D+ C- B- D D+
Defense D 318 D- D+ C- D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 252 D 52% 316 -3.7 308
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 75 C- 37% 215 +1.0 124
Three Pointers 40% 207 C+ 35% 125 +0.2 172
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 273 C- -1.8 243
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 257
Second Chance C 30.7% 173 D+ 0.98 264 C- 0.30 197
Opponents' Steals B 8.0% 47
Other Turnovers C- 7.7% 242
Turnovers B- 15.6% 107
Freethrows D 0.27 288 C- 71% 242 D 0.19 294
Total Offense C -0.5 178

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D- 36% 340 C- 12.0% 247
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F+ 10% 354 C+ 4.0% 116
Three Pointers F 71% 356 F+ 1.8% 344
Total F 42% 358 C- 6.0% 235


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 28 D 63% 309 +5.8 349
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 255 D- 43% 332 -0.1 183
Three Pointers 37% 293 D+ 36% 289 -0.7 154
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 312 D- +4.1 328
1st FG Attempt D- 1.12 334
Second Chance D+ 32.4% 268 D+ 1.09 276 D+ 0.35 287
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.5% 252
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 175
Turnovers C- 15.8% 237
Freethrows D- 0.37 333 C 73% 212 D- 0.27 331
Total Defense D -5.3 318

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 254 D 7.4% 316
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 43 C- 3.7% 245
Three Pointers D+ 87% 269 D+ 0.5% 270
Total C 56% 189 D+ 4.2% 296

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.1 335 16.7 73
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 281 0.24 350
Consistency 0.14 302 0.17 364
Improvement -0.7 218 -2.7 312

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 267 264 261
Results Rating Rank 280 276 272
Conference Record 7 - 15 7 - 15 7 - 15
Conference Finish 9 9 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 31 - 42 - 11
Quad 47 - 89 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 92 @Colorado St. L 64 - 98 9% -18  0% 0 - 1 F -25 D -6 D- F A+ F -21 F F D
 Sun, Nov 16 42 @Indiana L 61 - 69 3% -10  12% 0 - 2 B- +8 D+ -3 C- D B A +10 A+ C- B-
 Thu, Nov 20 337 Southern Indiana W 87 - 81 73% +8  98% 1 - 2 D+ -6 B- +5 B+ D+ B- F -11 F B+ D-
 Sat, Nov 22 94 High Point L 80 - 91 14% -5  37% 1 - 3 D+ -5 A- +10 D- A+ A+ F -16 D F D+
 Mon, Dec 1 83 McNeese St. W 71 - 67 18% +5  96% 2 - 3 1 - 0 B- +8 C+ +3 A- A C B +5 C+ D A+
 Sat, Dec 6 249 @Nicholls St. L 67 - 74 35% -3  17% 2 - 4 1 - 1 D -9 D+ -4 F A A- D -5 F+ B- F+
 Mon, Dec 8 197 @New Orleans L 83 - 84 26% -8  1% 2 - 5 1 - 2 C -0 B+ +9 B+ A- D+ F+ -9 F B+ A+
 Mon, Dec 15 45 @TCU L 65 - 69 4% +4  76% 2 - 6 B +11 B- +5 B+ D+ B B+ +5 A F+ D
 Sun, Dec 21 316 Northern Arizona W 90 - 66 74% +10  93% 3 - 6 B+ +11 B+ +9 C+ C+ A+ B +4 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 30 289 SE Louisiana W 79 - 70 67% +4  87% 4 - 6 2 - 2 C -1 C- -1 C- B- B+ C -0 B C C-
 Sat, Jan 3 290 Houston Christian W 73 - 56 67% +9  96% 5 - 6 3 - 2 B- +7 D+ -4 D F A+ A+ +11 B A+ B+
 Mon, Jan 5 144 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 67 - 80 18% -8  1% 5 - 7 3 - 3 D -9 C- -1 F C- A F+ -9 C F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 246 @Lamar L 51 - 63 34% -5  5% 5 - 8 3 - 4 D- -14 F -16 D+ F D C+ +1 C- B- A-
 Mon, Jan 12 100 @Stephen F. Austin L 46 - 56 11% -7  6% 5 - 9 3 - 5 C- -2 F -23 F F D+ A+ +20 A+ D+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 278 Northwestern St. W 76 - 74 64% -4  14% 6 - 9 4 - 5 D+ -7 C+ +2 D- A+ D- F+ -9 F C+ B+
 Mon, Jan 19 307 East Texas A&M L 58 - 80 71% -11  12% 6 - 10 4 - 6 F -34 F -12 F C A+ F -25 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 187 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71 - 79 46% -10  2% 6 - 11 4 - 7 D- -13 D+ -3 B- D F F -10 F F A-
 Tue, Jan 27 290 @Houston Christian L 75 - 81 44% +6  75% 6 - 12 4 - 8 D -10 D -4 C D F D -6 C+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 31 144 UT Rio Grande Valley L 93 - 106 35% -7  13% 6 - 13 4 - 9 F+ -15 A +14 A+ D- D- F -29 F F F
 Mon, Feb 2 187 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 71 - 69 25% +4  90% 7 - 13 5 - 9 C+ +3 C+ +3 A- F B- C -0 D+ A C-
 Sat, Feb 7 83 @McNeese St. L 64 - 81 8% -6  2% 7 - 14 5 - 10 D+ -7 C+ +2 B- A- F F -12 F A- F+
 Mon, Feb 9 289 @SE Louisiana L 62 - 74 44% -12  6% 7 - 15 5 - 11 F+ -16 D+ -3 F D+ B- F -15 F+ F F
 Sat, Feb 14 249 Nicholls St. L 83 - 91 58% -9  0% 7 - 16 5 - 12 F+ -16 A- +9 D A- A+ F -26 F B- F
 Mon, Feb 16 197 New Orleans L 64 - 78 47% -8  4% 7 - 17 5 - 13 F -19 F+ -10 D+ F D F -11 B+ F F
 Sat, Feb 21 307 @East Texas A&M W 82 - 73 49% +5  94% 8 - 17 6 - 13 C+ +3 A+ +24 C+ A+ B+ F -19 F F F
 Mon, Feb 23 278 @Northwestern St. L 49 - 54 41% -0  44% 8 - 18 6 - 14 D -8 F -19 F F+ D+ A +10 B- A- D+
 Sat, Feb 28 246 Lamar W 72 - 60 57% +10  92% 9 - 18 7 - 14 C+ +4 C+ +2 A F F B- +3 F A+ A+
 Mon, Mar 2 100 Stephen F. Austin L 68 - 76 23% -2  23% 9 - 19 7 - 15 D+ -6 B- +5 C- A- A+ F -13 F D+ C
Totals 9 - 19 7 - 15 -6 C -1 F C- D+ D -5 C+ C- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D C- C+ C- 36% 47% 40% D+ D+ C D+ C- B- D C- D D D D- D+ D- 45% 18% 37% D D- D+ D+ D+ C- D- C D-
1.08 52% 37% 35% -2 -1 0.97 31% 1.0 .30 16% .27 71% .19 1.16 63% 43% 36% +4 +1 1.12 32% 1.1 .35 16% .37 73% .20
Nov
3		 Colorado St. D C- A- F D- 26% 28% 46% D D- F F F A+ A- F C F F F F F 32% 18% 50% B- F F+ F F D F F F
0.98 57% 47% 24% -5 -2 0.89 17% 0.6 .10 8% .35 57% .20 1.49 79% 50% 50% +21 0 1.43 38% 1.8 .67 15% .54 90% .49
Nov
16		 Indiana D+ F+ F A+ C+ 26% 41% 33% F C- D- C+ D B F B F A D+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 7% 45% D- A+ F A- C- B- F A F
0.95 43% 27% 44% -3 -3 0.89 21% 1.1 .24 14% .16 78% .13 1.07 67% 33% 20% -6 +2 0.95 36% 0.9 .33 16% .48 69% .33
Nov
20		 Southern Indiana B- B B+ A+ A- 55% 27% 18% C- B+ C+ F+ D+ B- A+ F A F F F A+ F 42% 21% 37% D F A C B+ D- D+ F F+
1.19 64% 43% 44% +7 0 1.18 35% 0.8 .29 14% .46 66% .30 1.11 67% 58% 24% +2 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .18 14% .33 76% .25
Nov
22		 High Point A- F+ B+ D D 32% 22% 46% D- D- B+ A+ A+ A+ A B+ A+ F D F B+ D+ 56% 8% 35% F D F F F D+ F F F
1.22 50% 45% 30% -3 -1 0.94 38% 1.4 .54 15% .40 77% .31 1.39 67% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 54% 1.5 .82 12% .54 84% .45
Dec
1		 McNeese St. C+ A F A+ A 26% 28% 46% F A- B A A C A+ D+ A B B F A+ C 42% 29% 29% B+ C+ A- F D A+ B- F C
1.08 70% 27% 44% +7 -2 1.13 41% 1.3 .52 24% .48 71% .34 1.02 53% 69% 15% -1 -1 0.98 28% 1.4 .40 20% .27 86% .23
Dec
6		 Nicholls St. D+ F+ F F F 42% 31% 27% F F A B- A A- A+ D- A+ D A A+ F D- 49% 10% 41% F F+ A F B- F+ F F+ F
1.03 53% 29% 8% -16 -1 0.69 44% 1.2 .51 17% .55 73% .41 1.14 45% 0% 53% +2 +2 1.10 19% 1.2 .22 12% .66 71% .47
Dec
8		 New Orleans B+ F A+ A A 22% 28% 50% F B+ C A+ A- D+ C C- C F+ F+ F F F 50% 24% 26% D- F D+ A+ B+ A+ F F+ F
1.21 36% 64% 40% +7 -2 1.12 35% 1.3 .47 16% .36 71% .26 1.22 67% 50% 64% +19 0 1.40 38% 0.8 .29 26% .51 81% .41
Dec
15		 TCU B- D+ F A+ B+ 43% 18% 39% B- B+ C- C- D+ B F F F B+ F A A+ A 44% 24% 31% B- A A F F+ D F C- F
1.01 52% 22% 47% +2 +1 1.08 23% 1.0 .23 19% .17 56% .10 1.08 70% 27% 14% -7 0 0.89 29% 1.7 .48 12% .45 72% .32
Dec
21		 Northern Arizona B+ D+ C- A+ B- 34% 15% 51% D+ C+ B D+ C+ A+ A+ F+ A+ B D A- F F 41% 22% 37% D+ F A+ A+ A+ A- F A+ C-
1.33 56% 38% 44% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.1 .41 10% .49 67% .33 0.98 63% 30% 47% +8 0 1.17 11% 0.7 .07 21% .39 48% .19
Dec
30		 SE Louisiana C- F F A+ C- 31% 22% 47% C- C- D A+ B- B+ F C F C B- A+ A+ A 50% 16% 34% F B F A C C- C- F F+
1.09 47% 17% 46% +1 -1 1.02 26% 1.5 .39 17% .26 75% .20 0.96 54% 22% 21% -11 +1 0.82 34% 0.7 .24 17% .33 80% .26
Jan
3		 Houston Christian D+ B- A- F D 36% 20% 45% D D F D- F A+ F C+ F+ A+ B+ B+ A A- 53% 19% 28% F+ B D+ A+ A+ B+ A- A+ A
1.09 65% 45% 28% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 12% .20 75% .15 0.84 50% 30% 27% -9 +1 0.87 32% 0.3 .10 21% .21 55% .11
Jan
5		 UT Rio Grande Valley C- F D- B- F 40% 26% 34% C- F B+ F C- A C C C F+ D- F B+ C+ 35% 8% 58% D- C F D- F D+ D F F
1.03 40% 31% 35% -8 -1 0.84 38% 0.6 .23 12% .35 70% .25 1.23 67% 50% 30% 0 +1 1.06 42% 1.1 .48 15% .27 87% .24
Jan
10		 Lamar F A F C- D+ 44% 22% 33% C D+ C- F F D F+ F F C+ A F D+ C+ 47% 22% 31% F C- D- A+ B- A- F C+ F
0.83 70% 10% 33% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.1 .03 19% .32 38% .12 1.02 43% 50% 36% -4 0 0.96 38% 0.7 .26 21% .33 69% .23
Jan
12		 Stephen F. Austin F D- F+ F F 53% 24% 22% C+ F F+ F F D+ C- F D+ A+ B A A+ A+ 39% 27% 33% C- A+ D+ D+ D+ A- F A+ F+
0.69 50% 33% 0% -17 +1 0.69 21% 0.5 .11 18% .27 67% .18 0.84 50% 29% 6% -20 -1 0.61 35% 1.1 .37 16% .39 55% .22
Jan
17		 Northwestern St. C+ F A+ B D 35% 28% 37% F+ D- C A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ F+ F F C F 47% 19% 35% F F B D C+ B+ F D+ F
1.15 27% 67% 38% -1 -1 0.98 33% 1.9 .63 20% .47 88% .42 1.12 70% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.19 21% 1.2 .25 20% .47 76% .36
Jan
19		 East Texas A&M F F B- F F 39% 24% 37% D- F C+ D+ C A+ C- A+ B F D- F F F 51% 9% 40% F F F F F F F+ D- F
0.96 37% 42% 17% -17 0 0.67 35% 1.1 .38 10% .29 88% .26 1.33 65% 50% 39% +8 +2 1.22 32% 1.6 .52 10% .31 71% .22
Jan
24		 TX A&M Corpus Christi D+ C- B+ B+ B 39% 18% 43% C B- B F D F F F F F B F F F 55% 20% 25% D- F F F F A- F A F
1.03 58% 44% 38% +4 0 1.10 33% 0.7 .22 25% .29 60% .17 1.15 50% 50% 50% +4 +1 1.13 39% 1.2 .45 22% .67 58% .39
Jan
27		 Houston Christian D F A+ A+ C 39% 18% 43% D+ C A- F D F A+ F B+ D B- A- A- B 61% 15% 24% F C+ F F+ F B- F F F
1.04 37% 56% 48% +4 0 1.10 41% 0.7 .30 28% .42 59% .25 1.12 54% 29% 27% -7 +2 0.93 45% 1.1 .48 19% .64 78% .50
Jan
31		 UT Rio Grande Valley A A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 27% 40% D A+ A- F D- D- B- A- B+ F F F F F 42% 14% 44% D F B F F F F F+ F
1.29 82% 50% 48% +19 -1 1.38 39% 0.5 .18 19% .38 77% .29 1.47 71% 63% 48% +18 +1 1.40 23% 1.8 .42 8% .33 82% .27
Feb
2		 TX A&M Corpus Christi C+ B F A+ A- 52% 18% 30% B- A- F F F B- B C- B- C D B+ D+ D 43% 28% 30% B D+ A A+ A C- F F F
1.08 65% 25% 46% +7 +1 1.18 20% 0.5 .10 18% .45 71% .32 1.05 60% 31% 36% 0 -1 1.00 22% 0.7 .16 17% .42 74% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 McNeese St. C+ F D+ A+ B- 39% 9% 52% B+ B- A+ D- A- F A+ F A+ F F A+ F F 53% 9% 37% F F B+ B+ A- F+ F A+ F
1.03 46% 33% 41% 0 +2 1.06 52% 0.9 .48 37% .61 67% .41 1.31 74% 25% 44% +13 +3 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 10% .55 65% .36
Feb
9		 SE Louisiana D+ C- F C- F 29% 33% 38% F F B- F D+ B- D- A+ B- F B- F D F 32% 26% 43% C+ F+ F+ F F F C+ B+ B-
1.01 57% 19% 33% -7 -2 0.83 35% 0.8 .30 18% .32 94% .30 1.21 53% 50% 35% +2 -1 1.04 33% 1.4 .45 11% .30 63% .18
Feb
14		 Nicholls St. A- F A+ D+ F+ 49% 7% 44% A- D B- A A- A+ F A+ F F F A+ F F 65% 6% 29% F F A- F B- F F D+ F
1.27 50% 75% 32% -3 +3 1.02 38% 1.3 .49 9% .17 100% .17 1.39 70% 0% 53% +14 +4 1.37 19% 1.2 .23 8% .36 68% .25
Feb
16		 New Orleans F+ D D+ C- D+ 38% 17% 46% C D+ C F F D A+ D- A- F A F A B+ 35% 26% 39% B- B+ C- F F F F B+ F
0.99 50% 38% 32% -5 0 0.94 35% 0.6 .22 17% .47 68% .32 1.21 44% 50% 28% -6 -1 0.89 36% 1.3 .46 11% .59 71% .42
Feb
21		 East Texas A&M A+ F A+ A- B- 31% 21% 48% F+ C+ A A+ A+ B+ C+ A+ A+ F F+ D+ F F 31% 20% 49% B F F F+ F F A B A-
1.43 46% 56% 40% +4 -1 1.10 43% 2.1 .91 14% .33 94% .30 1.28 67% 40% 42% +9 -1 1.18 40% 1.1 .43 10% .16 63% .10
Feb
23		 Northwestern St. F F F F F 40% 24% 36% D+ F D- D- F+ D+ D+ D- D A D A+ B B- 34% 36% 30% B+ B- B- A+ A- D+ F+ C D-
0.82 44% 27% 25% -13 0 0.76 26% 1.0 .26 18% .31 67% .20 0.90 60% 25% 31% -6 -2 0.86 21% 0.9 .18 15% .37 74% .27
Feb
28		 Lamar C+ B+ F A+ A 45% 13% 43% B+ A F+ F F F A+ A+ A+ B- F F A+ F 38% 33% 29% D+ F D- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A-
1.13 67% 20% 47% +10 +2 1.25 23% 0.8 .18 24% .51 80% .41 0.94 71% 53% 23% +5 -2 1.09 38% 0.5 .18 24% .19 56% .10
Mar
2		 Stephen F. Austin B- A- A F C- 44% 15% 41% B C- F A+ A- A+ F F F F D+ D F F 21% 34% 45% A F C- D+ D+ C D- C+ D
1.13 67% 50% 18% -4 +1 0.96 20% 2.1 .43 7% .16 33% .05 1.26 60% 44% 48% +11 -3 1.19 34% 1.1 .38 13% .29 67% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 100.0 100.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15 100.0% 100.0
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%