Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#302
Expected Predictive Rating-11.8#322
Pace63.1#332
Improvement+0.8#116

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#228
First Shot+0.0#176
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#309
Layup/Dunks-8.5#360
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#3
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#234
Freethrows+3.3#33
Improvement-0.3#210

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#339
First Shot-5.3#338
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#203
Layups/Dunks-3.0#291
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#64
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#309
Freethrows-0.1#188
Improvement+1.1#82
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.0% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 1.9% 4.1% 1.0%
.500 or above in Conference 16.5% 28.0% 11.8%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 26.9% 13.9% 32.2%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Away) - 28.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 31 - 82 - 14
Quad 46 - 88 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 38 @Texas A&M L 68-98 3%     0 - 1 -14.9 -3.7 -9.1
  Thu, Nov 6 145 @North Texas L 53-80 14%     0 - 2 -23.2 -6.0 -22.1
  Tue, Nov 11 200 @North Alabama L 83-87 OT 21%     0 - 3 -3.4 +5.3 -8.5
  Tue, Nov 18 99 @San Francisco L 64-84 8%     0 - 4 -12.0 +3.3 -17.8
  Fri, Nov 21 94 @Grand Canyon L 72-85 8%     0 - 5 -4.9 +7.1 -12.1
  Sat, Nov 29 201 Southern L 73-75 41%     0 - 6 -7.5 +0.1 -7.6
  Fri, Dec 5 78 @McNeese St. L 54-92 6%     0 - 7 0 - 1 -27.7 -10.7 -18.8
  Sun, Dec 7 248 @SE Louisiana L 65-71 29%    
  Sat, Dec 13 69 @California L 64-83 4%    
  Mon, Dec 29 195 Lamar L 65-67 41%    
  Wed, Dec 31 144 Stephen F. Austin L 66-72 29%    
  Sat, Jan 3 216 New Orleans L 72-74 44%    
  Mon, Jan 5 265 @Nicholls St. L 68-73 32%    
  Sat, Jan 10 237 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 69-70 49%    
  Mon, Jan 12 213 UT Rio Grande Valley L 73-75 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 171 @Incarnate Word L 65-75 19%    
  Mon, Jan 19 282 @Houston Christian L 67-71 35%    
  Sat, Jan 24 300 East Texas A&M W 70-67 60%    
  Mon, Jan 26 144 @Stephen F. Austin L 63-75 15%    
  Sat, Jan 31 216 @New Orleans L 69-77 26%    
  Mon, Feb 2 265 Nicholls St. W 71-70 54%    
  Sat, Feb 7 300 @East Texas A&M L 67-70 40%    
  Mon, Feb 9 195 @Lamar L 62-70 23%    
  Sat, Feb 14 248 SE Louisiana L 67-68 50%    
  Mon, Feb 16 78 McNeese St. L 63-75 14%    
  Sat, Feb 21 282 Houston Christian W 70-68 56%    
  Mon, Feb 23 171 Incarnate Word L 68-72 37%    
  Sat, Feb 28 237 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66-72 29%    
  Mon, Mar 2 213 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 70-78 26%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 8 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 3.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.6 0.7 0.1 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.9 1.2 0.2 8.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.9 4.4 1.9 0.2 10.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.7 5.1 2.5 0.3 12.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.0 5.7 3.1 0.4 0.0 14.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 2.6 4.9 5.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 16.6 11th
12th 0.2 1.0 2.4 4.1 5.4 3.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 18.6 12th
Total 0.2 1.0 2.6 4.8 8.3 9.9 12.0 12.9 12.1 10.8 9.2 6.4 4.4 2.9 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-3 0.0%
18-4 60.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
17-5 39.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-6 9.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-7 4.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-8 1.0% 0.0    0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 0.0% 0.0
19-3 0.0% 0.0
18-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-5 0.2% 13.6% 13.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-6 0.4% 7.4% 7.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-7 0.8% 6.6% 6.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.8
14-8 1.4% 7.2% 7.2% 15.4 0.1 0.0 1.3
13-9 2.9% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.8
12-10 4.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 4.3
11-11 6.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.3
10-12 9.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.1
9-13 10.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.7
8-14 12.1% 12.1
7-15 12.9% 12.9
6-16 12.0% 12.0
5-17 9.9% 9.9
4-18 8.3% 8.3
3-19 4.8% 4.8
2-20 2.6% 2.6
1-21 1.0% 1.0
0-22 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%