Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#244
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#202
Pace61.7#339
Improvement+1.4#136

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#260
First Shot-4.5#300
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#118
Layup/Dunks-1.9#250
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#21
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#294
Freethrows-3.0#338
Improvement+0.9#152

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#208
First Shot-2.1#244
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#102
Layups/Dunks+1.3#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#262
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#281
Freethrows-0.3#206
Improvement+0.6#162
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 37.8% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 n/a
.500 or above 4.1% 37.8% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 7.6% 0.0%
First Round3.7% 34.5% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 34 - 35 - 11
Quad 410 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 7   @ Texas Tech L 65-86 1%     0 - 1 +1.5 +3.0 -2.1
  Nov 11, 2024 40   @ Oklahoma L 57-73 4%     0 - 2 -0.6 -8.6 +7.6
  Nov 16, 2024 191   @ Rice L 75-77 OT 29%     0 - 3 -0.8 +0.7 -1.6
  Nov 22, 2024 343   Louisiana Monroe L 63-65 84%     0 - 4 -17.0 -12.2 -5.0
  Nov 24, 2024 121   North Alabama W 71-58 34%     1 - 4 +12.6 +4.1 +9.9
  Nov 29, 2024 80   @ LSU L 53-77 10%     1 - 5 -14.2 -13.3 -1.1
  Dec 05, 2024 262   @ Incarnate Word W 72-70 44%     2 - 5 1 - 0 -0.9 +5.7 -6.4
  Dec 07, 2024 285   @ Houston Christian W 64-57 50%     3 - 5 2 - 0 +2.6 -0.1 +3.8
  Dec 14, 2024 105   @ California L 66-84 15%     3 - 6 -11.3 +1.5 -14.4
  Dec 29, 2024 44   @ Texas L 53-77 5%     3 - 7 -9.7 -2.9 -11.5
  Jan 04, 2025 177   Nicholls St. W 68-66 47%     4 - 7 3 - 0 -1.8 +0.2 -1.8
  Jan 06, 2025 69   McNeese St. L 69-92 18%     4 - 8 3 - 1 -17.8 +4.7 -24.7
  Jan 11, 2025 335   Texas A&M - Commerce W 75-67 82%     5 - 8 4 - 1 -6.1 -1.6 -4.4
  Jan 13, 2025 179   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64-73 28%     5 - 9 4 - 2 -7.3 -2.7 -5.2
  Jan 18, 2025 218   SE Louisiana L 64-65 55%     5 - 10 4 - 3 -6.9 -0.7 -6.4
  Jan 20, 2025 354   New Orleans W 73-61 87%     6 - 10 5 - 3 -4.5 -6.2 +2.2
  Jan 25, 2025 282   @ Stephen F. Austin W 57-54 OT 49%     7 - 10 6 - 3 -1.2 -17.1 +15.7
  Jan 27, 2025 181   @ Lamar L 59-69 28%     7 - 11 6 - 4 -8.5 -2.2 -7.7
  Feb 01, 2025 335   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 50-72 65%     7 - 12 6 - 5 -30.6 -21.4 -10.9
  Feb 03, 2025 268   UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-63 65%     8 - 12 7 - 5 +7.4 -4.6 +10.8
  Feb 08, 2025 69   @ McNeese St. L 50-65 8%     8 - 13 7 - 6 -4.3 -12.9 +7.1
  Feb 10, 2025 177   @ Nicholls St. W 72-60 27%     9 - 13 8 - 6 +13.7 +3.3 +11.0
  Feb 15, 2025 282   Stephen F. Austin L 68-70 69%     9 - 14 8 - 7 -11.7 -0.4 -11.4
  Feb 17, 2025 181   Lamar L 65-75 48%     9 - 15 8 - 8 -14.0 +3.4 -19.1
  Feb 22, 2025 354   @ New Orleans W 73-66 73%     10 - 15 9 - 8 -4.0 +5.4 -8.3
  Feb 24, 2025 218   @ SE Louisiana W 72-69 34%     11 - 15 10 - 8 +2.6 +7.4 -4.4
  Mar 01, 2025 285   Houston Christian W 61-56 70%     12 - 15 11 - 8 -4.9 -4.8 +0.7
  Mar 03, 2025 262   Incarnate Word W 73-57 65%     13 - 15 12 - 8 +7.6 +4.4 +5.4
  Mar 10, 2025 179   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 66-63 37%     14 - 15 +1.9 +3.3 -0.9
  Mar 11, 2025 69   McNeese St. L 60-72 12%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 100.0% 4.1% 4.1% 15.8 1.0 3.1 95.9
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 15.8 1.0 3.1 95.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.1% 100.0% 15.8 24.0 76.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 89.2%