Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.5 #276
Expected Predictive Rating -8.0 #298
Pace 64.0 #313
Improvement +4.8 #18

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #190 C D+ C- A- D
Defense #331 F F C D D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #238 1.04 #315 -3.4 #295
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #74 0.87 #47 +3.6 #35
Three Pointers 37% #263 1.05 #128 -1.2 #219
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #213 -1.0 #213
Freethrows 20.6 #33 74% #130 15.3 #33
Second Chance 25.0% #322 1.13 #70 0.28 #250
Turnovers 17.3% #240
Total Offense -1.0 #190

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #101 1.32 #339 -5.0 #333
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #313 0.92 #357 +0.4 #164
Three Pointers 43% #131 1.10 #293 -2.7 #295
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #355 -7.3 #355
Freethrows 19.8 #306 73% #196 14.5 #306
Second Chance 35.0% #324 1.15 #303 0.40 #341
Turnovers 17.0% #148
Total Defense -5.5 #331

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.7% #293 1.6% #318
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.1% #179 12.5% #355
Possession Length 19.0 #335 16.8 #85
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #279 0.20 #280
Improvement +1.7 #94 +3.1 #31

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 17.3% 22.6% 6.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.1% 5.3% 19.9%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Texas A&M (Home) - 67.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 61 - 13
Quad 48 - 89 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 34 @Texas A&M L 68 - 98 3% -19  0 - 1 -13 -2 D- D+ C -9 C+ F C+
 Thu, Nov 6 127 @North Texas L 53 - 80 14% -8  0 - 2 -22 -3 B- F F -24 F F C
 Tue, Nov 11 328 @North Alabama L 83 - 87 OT 54% -5  0 - 3 -11 +0 C+ F C- -11 D- F C
 Tue, Nov 18 101 @San Francisco L 64 - 84 10% -15  0 - 4 -12 +3 D- C+ D- -18 F B D-
 Fri, Nov 21 79 @Grand Canyon L 72 - 85 7% -8  0 - 5 -3 +8 A+ F A+ -11 F F C
 Sat, Nov 29 246 Southern L 73 - 75 54% -8  0 - 6 -10 -0 D- B- C- -9 F D- B+
 Fri, Dec 5 87 @McNeese St. L 54 - 92 7% -24  0 - 7 0 - 1 -28 -13 D+ F F -17 F C B
 Sun, Dec 7 272 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 68 37% -3  1 - 7 1 - 1 +5 +9 C- A+ F -4 C+ F C
 Sat, Dec 13 75 @California L 70 - 79 6% -1  1 - 8 +2 +6 A+ C F -4 B- F A
 Mon, Dec 29 211 Lamar L 61 - 76 49% -12  1 - 9 1 - 2 -21 -9 F F C- -13 F B- B+
 Wed, Dec 31 105 Stephen F. Austin L 64 - 74 22% -7  1 - 10 1 - 3 -9 -2 D F A+ -7 F A- C
 Sat, Jan 3 235 New Orleans W 74 - 68 53% -5  2 - 10 2 - 3 -1 -1 F A+ D+ +0 B- B D+
 Mon, Jan 5 232 @Nicholls St. L 72 - 74 30% -2  2 - 11 2 - 4 -3 -1 F C+ A+ -2 D- A D
 Sat, Jan 10 186 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79 - 78 43% -7  3 - 11 3 - 4 -4 +10 A+ B+ F -14 F C F
 Mon, Jan 12 218 UT Rio Grande Valley W 64 - 63 50% -4  4 - 11 4 - 4 -5 -7 D- D- F +2 C+ C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 223 @Incarnate Word L 74 - 76 29% +4  4 - 12 4 - 5 -3 +6 A F F -8 D+ F A+
 Mon, Jan 19 298 @Houston Christian L 80 - 82 43% +4  4 - 13 4 - 6 -7 +23 B A+ B -31 F F C
 Sat, Jan 24 308 East Texas A&M W 75 - 70 67%
 Mon, Jan 26 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 63 - 77 10%
 Sat, Jan 31 235 @New Orleans L 76 - 81 31%
 Mon, Feb 2 232 Nicholls St. W 76 - 75 52%
 Sat, Feb 7 308 @East Texas A&M L 72 - 73 46%
 Mon, Feb 9 211 @Lamar L 66 - 72 28%
 Sat, Feb 14 272 SE Louisiana W 71 - 68 60%
 Mon, Feb 16 87 McNeese St. L 68 - 78 17%
 Sat, Feb 21 298 Houston Christian W 74 - 70 65%
 Mon, Feb 23 223 Incarnate Word W 71 - 70 51%
 Sat, Feb 28 186 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 73 24%
 Mon, Mar 2 218 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 69 - 75 29%
Totals 9 - 20 9 - 13 -6 -1 C D+ C- -6 F F C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 2.2 0.7 0.1 4.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 4.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 6.7 3.4 0.4 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 6.7 6.2 0.8 0.0 14.5 7th
8th 0.3 5.3 9.2 1.9 0.1 16.7 8th
9th 0.2 3.1 9.3 3.5 0.1 16.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 7.2 4.0 0.2 12.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.5 0.3 0.0 8.4 11th
12th 0.5 1.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.4 12th
Total 0.5 2.4 7.3 14.5 19.8 21.1 17.2 10.2 5.0 1.7 0.4 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7 0.1% 0.1
14-8 0.4% 6.0% 6.0% 15.0 0.0 0.4
13-9 1.7% 2.7% 2.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.6
12-10 5.0% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.9
11-11 10.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.1
10-12 17.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.1
9-13 21.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 21.0
8-14 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.8
7-15 14.5% 14.5
6-16 7.3% 7.3
5-17 2.4% 2.4
4-18 0.5% 0.5
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.9 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%