Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.1#293
Expected Predictive Rating-4.6#244
Pace63.0#320
Improvement-2.5#297

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#316
First Shot-6.0#331
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#136
Layup/Dunks-2.5#277
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#23
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#307
Freethrows-3.1#344
Improvement-2.9#323

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#225
First Shot-2.7#263
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#105
Layups/Dunks+1.1#130
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#266
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#282
Freethrows-0.5#219
Improvement+0.4#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.5% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 3.0% 14.0% 2.3%
.500 or above in Conference 68.3% 90.9% 66.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round0.5% 1.4% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Away) - 5.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 32 - 52 - 12
Quad 49 - 612 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 12   @ Texas Tech L 65-86 1%     0 - 1 -0.9 +2.4 -3.9
  Nov 11, 2024 34   @ Oklahoma L 57-73 3%     0 - 2 -0.3 -8.3 +7.6
  Nov 16, 2024 192   @ Rice L 75-77 OT 22%     0 - 3 -1.0 +1.4 -2.4
  Nov 22, 2024 328   Louisiana Monroe L 63-65 71%     0 - 4 -15.0 -10.3 -4.8
  Nov 24, 2024 155   North Alabama W 71-58 31%     1 - 4 +11.1 +3.5 +9.1
  Nov 29, 2024 71   @ LSU L 53-77 6%     1 - 5 -13.7 -13.4 -0.5
  Dec 05, 2024 291   @ Incarnate Word W 72-70 40%     2 - 5 1 - 0 -2.6 +3.6 -6.0
  Dec 07, 2024 290   @ Houston Christian W 64-57 40%     3 - 5 2 - 0 +2.4 -1.9 +5.4
  Dec 14, 2024 116   @ California L 66-84 12%     3 - 6 -12.7 -0.3 -14.0
  Dec 29, 2024 30   @ Texas L 53-77 2%     3 - 7 -7.4 -1.5 -10.6
  Jan 04, 2025 197   Nicholls St. W 68-66 39%     4 - 7 3 - 0 -2.2 -0.1 -1.9
  Jan 06, 2025 87   McNeese St. L 69-92 15%     4 - 8 3 - 1 -18.9 +4.7 -25.7
  Jan 11, 2025 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 75-67 75%     5 - 8 4 - 1 -6.3 -2.0 -4.2
  Jan 13, 2025 186   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64-73 21%     5 - 9 4 - 2 -7.8 -3.6 -4.9
  Jan 18, 2025 228   SE Louisiana L 64-65 46%     5 - 10 4 - 3 -7.2 +0.1 -7.4
  Jan 20, 2025 351   New Orleans W 73-61 78%     6 - 10 5 - 3 -3.3 -4.8 +2.0
  Jan 25, 2025 270   @ Stephen F. Austin W 57-54 OT 37%     7 - 10 6 - 3 -0.6 -16.1 +15.2
  Jan 27, 2025 218   @ Lamar L 59-69 27%     7 - 11 6 - 4 -10.7 -4.2 -7.9
  Feb 01, 2025 343   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 50-72 59%     7 - 12 6 - 5 -31.3 -22.0 -11.0
  Feb 03, 2025 264   UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-63 54%     8 - 12 7 - 5 +7.7 -4.4 +10.9
  Feb 08, 2025 87   @ McNeese St. L 58-74 6%    
  Feb 10, 2025 197   @ Nicholls St. L 64-72 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 270   Stephen F. Austin W 62-61 57%    
  Feb 17, 2025 218   Lamar L 65-66 47%    
  Feb 22, 2025 351   @ New Orleans W 72-69 59%    
  Feb 24, 2025 228   @ SE Louisiana L 64-70 28%    
  Mar 01, 2025 290   Houston Christian W 67-65 61%    
  Mar 03, 2025 291   @ Incarnate Word L 67-70 39%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.7 2.2 0.2 5.3 3rd
4th 0.1 3.1 5.8 0.7 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 2.1 9.8 3.1 0.0 15.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 12.5 9.2 0.4 24.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 11.2 11.7 1.5 0.0 26.2 7th
8th 0.5 5.0 6.7 1.0 13.1 8th
9th 1.1 2.5 0.7 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.4 0.1 0.5 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 2.0 9.3 20.4 27.3 23.7 12.2 4.2 0.8 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.8% 7.4% 7.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.8
13-7 4.2% 2.9% 2.9% 15.5 0.1 0.1 4.1
12-8 12.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 12.1
11-9 23.7% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 23.6
10-10 27.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.2 27.2
9-11 20.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.4
8-12 9.3% 9.3
7-13 2.0% 2.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.8 0.2 0.5 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.9%