Houston Christian
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.6#282
Expected Predictive Rating-10.1#311
Pace62.8#338
Improvement-0.7#239

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#229
First Shot+2.0#123
After Offensive Rebound-4.3#354
Layup/Dunks+3.3#74
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#219
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#118
Freethrows-2.6#315
Improvement+2.2#27

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#320
First Shot-6.3#349
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#74
Layups/Dunks-3.9#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#73
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#351
Freethrows+2.7#42
Improvement-2.9#351
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.7% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 12.6% 23.6% 8.5%
.500 or above in Conference 26.3% 43.6% 19.8%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.4% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 18.9% 8.8% 22.7%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.9% 1.6% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Away) - 27.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 49 - 811 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 102 @UC San Diego L 60-78 10%     0 - 1 -10.2 -10.2 -0.1
  Thu, Nov 13 357 Louisiana Monroe W 72-61 84%     1 - 1 -6.1 -8.6 +2.4
  Tue, Nov 25 292 Bellarmine L 69-74 53%     1 - 2 -12.3 -0.8 -12.2
  Wed, Nov 26 363 @The Citadel W 72-65 70%     2 - 2 -5.0 +4.5 -8.2
  Sat, Nov 29 226 @Georgia Southern L 62-80 29%     2 - 3 -19.0 -8.6 -11.2
  Tue, Dec 2 145 @North Texas L 75-77 16%     2 - 4 +1.8 +15.7 -14.2
  Sat, Dec 6 216 @New Orleans L 69-75 27%    
  Sat, Dec 13 248 SE Louisiana W 68-67 54%    
  Mon, Dec 15 78 McNeese St. L 62-73 16%    
  Wed, Dec 17 265 @Nicholls St. L 68-72 37%    
  Mon, Dec 29 6 @Iowa St. L 58-88 0.2%   
  Sat, Jan 3 171 @Incarnate Word L 65-74 22%    
  Mon, Jan 5 237 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-68 53%    
  Sat, Jan 10 144 @Stephen F. Austin L 63-74 17%    
  Mon, Jan 12 195 @Lamar L 62-69 26%    
  Sat, Jan 17 300 East Texas A&M W 70-66 65%    
  Mon, Jan 19 302 Northwestern St. W 71-67 65%    
  Sat, Jan 24 213 UT Rio Grande Valley L 73-74 48%    
  Mon, Jan 26 171 Incarnate Word L 68-71 41%    
  Sat, Jan 31 237 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 66-71 33%    
  Mon, Feb 2 213 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 71-77 28%    
  Sat, Feb 7 248 @SE Louisiana L 65-70 34%    
  Mon, Feb 9 78 @McNeese St. L 59-76 7%    
  Sat, Feb 14 216 New Orleans L 72-73 49%    
  Mon, Feb 16 265 Nicholls St. W 71-69 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 302 @Northwestern St. L 68-70 44%    
  Mon, Feb 23 300 @East Texas A&M L 67-69 44%    
  Sat, Feb 28 144 Stephen F. Austin L 66-71 34%    
  Mon, Mar 2 195 Lamar L 65-66 45%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 8 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.4 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.2 5.0 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 3.3 5.0 2.8 0.3 0.0 12.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 5.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 12.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.7 4.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 13.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.6 3.5 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 12.6 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.1 5.1 7.7 10.4 11.6 11.7 11.8 10.1 8.5 6.6 4.7 3.1 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-4 69.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
17-5 45.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-6 14.1% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-7 5.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 0.0% 0.0
19-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-4 0.1% 17.2% 17.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1
17-5 0.5% 9.4% 9.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
16-6 0.9% 9.0% 9.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.8
15-7 1.9% 7.9% 7.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7
14-8 3.1% 7.0% 7.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.8
13-9 4.7% 3.9% 3.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.6
12-10 6.6% 1.7% 1.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 6.5
11-11 8.5% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.4
10-12 10.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.1
9-13 11.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.8
8-14 11.7% 11.7
7-15 11.6% 11.6
6-16 10.4% 10.4
5-17 7.7% 7.7
4-18 5.1% 5.1
3-19 3.1% 3.1
2-20 1.6% 1.6
1-21 0.5% 0.5
0-22 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%