Houston Christian
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.8 #298
Expected Predictive Rating -8.8 #310
Pace 62.6 #337
Improvement +0.0 #185

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #214 C D C D C
Defense #340 F D C B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #129 1.17 #160 +1.5 #125
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #174 0.63 #330 -1.2 #239
Three Pointers 39% #227 1.01 #192 -1.3 #226
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #215 -1.0 #215
Freethrows 17.0 #209 65% #358 11.0 #279
Second Chance 27.7% #262 0.94 #309 0.26 #297
Turnovers 16.8% #199
Total Offense -1.5 #214

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #104 1.37 #362 -6.1 #354
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #311 0.69 #78 +2.2 #33
Three Pointers 43% #134 1.10 #289 -2.5 #290
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #346 -6.4 #346
Freethrows 15.0 #71 76% #326 11.4 #105
Second Chance 32.4% #257 1.16 #313 0.37 #307
Turnovers 16.2% #200
Total Defense -6.3 #340

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #180 1.6% #315
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.2% #212 10.9% #346
Possession Length 18.9 #324 17.9 #263
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #272 0.19 #259
Improvement +2.5 #54 -2.5 #314

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 3.2% 5.8% 1.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 35.0% 21.9% 45.7%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Home) - 44.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 48 - 99 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 109 @UC San Diego L 60 - 78 9% -13  0 - 1 -11 -9 C F F -2 F B A-
 Thu, Nov 13 361 Louisiana Monroe W 72 - 61 85% -3  1 - 1 -8 -11 F F C+ +3 C- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 300 Bellarmine L 69 - 74 50% +1  1 - 2 -13 -2 F A- B -11 F A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 351 @The Citadel W 72 - 65 57% +6  2 - 2 -3 +7 B- B- F -8 D F F
 Sat, Nov 29 251 @Georgia Southern L 62 - 80 29% -6  2 - 3 -20 -10 F F F -11 F D+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 127 @North Texas L 75 - 77 12% -1  2 - 4 +3 +19 A+ F A+ -16 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 235 @New Orleans W 85 - 76 26% +4  3 - 4 1 - 0 +8 +13 C+ A- A+ -5 D- A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 272 SE Louisiana L 71 - 74 OT 55% -3  3 - 5 1 - 1 -12 -3 C- D D -9 D+ D- C+
 Mon, Dec 15 87 McNeese St. L 68 - 78 14% +1  3 - 6 1 - 2 -6 +7 D+ B- A+ -15 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 232 @Nicholls St. L 64 - 79 26% -11  3 - 7 1 - 3 -16 -9 F F F -7 D+ D F
 Mon, Dec 29 8 @Iowa St. L 61 - 89 1% -12  3 - 8 -5 +4 B F A -10 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 223 @Incarnate Word L 56 - 73 25% -9  3 - 9 1 - 4 -18 -15 F F F -4 D+ B+ D+
 Mon, Jan 5 186 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 81 38% -8  3 - 10 1 - 5 -21 -5 D C F -16 F F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 85 8% -15  3 - 11 1 - 6 -11 +8 A+ C- F -21 F F F
 Mon, Jan 12 211 @Lamar L 56 - 64 23% +1  3 - 12 1 - 7 -8 -8 F F C -2 F A A+
 Sat, Jan 17 308 East Texas A&M W 81 - 70 64% -3  4 - 12 2 - 7 -0 +7 C+ C+ F -7 D- D+ C
 Mon, Jan 19 276 Northwestern St. W 82 - 80 57% -4  5 - 12 3 - 7 -7 +24 A+ A+ C -31 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 218 UT Rio Grande Valley L 71 - 72 45%
 Mon, Jan 26 223 Incarnate Word L 70 - 71 45%
 Sat, Jan 31 186 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64 - 73 20%
 Mon, Feb 2 218 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 68 - 75 24%
 Sat, Feb 7 272 @SE Louisiana L 66 - 71 34%
 Mon, Feb 9 87 @McNeese St. L 63 - 81 5%
 Sat, Feb 14 235 New Orleans L 77 - 78 47%
 Mon, Feb 16 232 Nicholls St. L 74 - 75 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 276 @Northwestern St. L 70 - 74 35%
 Mon, Feb 23 308 @East Texas A&M L 71 - 73 42%
 Sat, Feb 28 105 Stephen F. Austin L 65 - 74 19%
 Mon, Mar 2 211 Lamar L 67 - 69 44%
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 15 -8 -2 C D C -6 F D C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 2.7 0.6 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.0 1.8 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.2 4.2 4.7 0.5 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 3.6 7.9 2.1 0.0 13.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.9 10.3 4.5 0.2 19.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 4.3 10.2 6.2 0.6 0.0 22.1 11th
12th 1.3 5.2 8.2 5.0 0.8 0.0 20.5 12th
Total 1.4 6.0 12.9 19.4 21.1 17.9 12.1 6.2 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7 0.0% 0.0
14-8 0.0% 0.0
13-9 0.1% 0.1
12-10 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 0.7
11-11 2.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.3
10-12 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.2
9-13 12.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.0
8-14 17.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.9
7-15 21.1% 21.1
6-16 19.4% 19.4
5-17 12.9% 12.9
4-18 6.0% 6.0
3-19 1.4% 1.4
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%