Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.7#343
Expected Predictive Rating-18.0#360
Pace65.4#268
Improvement-3.9#349

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#241
First Shot+0.1#174
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#317
Layup/Dunks+1.2#139
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#84
Freethrows-0.4#197
Improvement+0.9#106

Defense
Total Defense-9.1#362
First Shot-7.9#361
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#281
Layups/Dunks-4.1#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#52
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#353
Freethrows+0.9#128
Improvement-4.8#362
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.5 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 1.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 6.2% 11.7% 6.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 33.0% 22.3% 33.2%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Away) - 1.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 45 - 116 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 57   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-84 2%     0 - 1 -6.5 +4.1 -11.6
  Nov 09, 2024 347   VMI L 71-76 63%     0 - 2 -20.2 -8.4 -11.8
  Nov 13, 2024 282   Southern Indiana L 69-71 42%     0 - 3 -11.7 -6.4 -5.4
  Nov 16, 2024 190   @ Marshall L 62-83 11%     0 - 4 -19.3 -9.2 -10.1
  Nov 19, 2024 51   @ Louisville L 68-100 2%     0 - 5 -18.8 -2.2 -15.0
  Nov 23, 2024 267   Bowling Green W 80-68 39%     1 - 5 +3.3 +4.0 -0.4
  Nov 30, 2024 214   @ Northern Kentucky L 70-86 13%     1 - 6 -15.5 +1.1 -17.0
  Dec 04, 2024 311   @ Western Carolina L 74-86 27%     1 - 7 -17.4 +0.6 -17.8
  Dec 14, 2024 288   Ball St. L 82-86 43%     1 - 8 -13.8 +11.2 -25.3
  Dec 19, 2024 161   @ Wyoming L 55-92 10%     1 - 9 -34.2 -9.6 -28.6
  Dec 21, 2024 75   @ Colorado L 62-84 2%    
  Jan 02, 2025 182   @ North Alabama L 67-81 10%    
  Jan 04, 2025 339   @ Central Arkansas L 71-74 38%    
  Jan 09, 2025 205   Jacksonville L 68-75 27%    
  Jan 11, 2025 188   North Florida L 78-85 25%    
  Jan 16, 2025 107   Lipscomb L 67-80 12%    
  Jan 18, 2025 220   @ Eastern Kentucky L 70-82 13%    
  Jan 23, 2025 192   Florida Gulf Coast L 67-74 25%    
  Jan 25, 2025 344   Stetson W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 273   @ Austin Peay L 63-72 21%    
  Feb 01, 2025 107   @ Lipscomb L 64-83 4%    
  Feb 06, 2025 188   @ North Florida L 75-88 11%    
  Feb 08, 2025 205   @ Jacksonville L 65-78 13%    
  Feb 13, 2025 270   Queens L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 15, 2025 341   West Georgia W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 18, 2025 273   Austin Peay L 66-69 41%    
  Feb 20, 2025 220   Eastern Kentucky L 73-79 30%    
  Feb 24, 2025 344   @ Stetson L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 26, 2025 192   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 64-77 11%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.6 6.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 15.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 6.1 8.0 3.6 0.5 0.0 19.7 10th
11th 0.2 2.5 7.1 8.1 3.5 0.5 0.0 21.9 11th
12th 1.1 4.3 7.2 5.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 20.8 12th
Total 1.1 4.6 9.8 14.5 17.2 16.8 13.7 9.8 6.4 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 75.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 26.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 14.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 2.1% 2.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.2% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 0.7% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7
10-8 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.6
9-9 3.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.4
8-10 6.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.4
7-11 9.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.8
6-12 13.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.7
5-13 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.8
4-14 17.2% 17.2
3-15 14.5% 14.5
2-16 9.8% 9.8
1-17 4.6% 4.6
0-18 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%