Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#292
Expected Predictive Rating-5.1#239
Pace66.1#271
Improvement+1.5#75

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#164
First Shot+3.6#79
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#348
Layup/Dunks+6.3#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#274
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#255
Freethrows+1.4#110
Improvement+0.3#156

Defense
Total Defense-7.3#356
First Shot-6.7#355
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#232
Layups/Dunks-1.5#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#145
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#319
Freethrows-1.6#282
Improvement+1.2#73
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 5.3% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.5
.500 or above 13.1% 30.9% 11.4%
.500 or above in Conference 33.3% 46.5% 31.9%
Conference Champion 2.2% 4.5% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.5% 8.5% 14.0%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
First Round2.4% 4.8% 2.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Away) - 9.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 49 - 811 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 19 @Georgia L 59-104 2%     0 - 1 -26.5 -10.8 -11.9
  Sat, Nov 8 71 @Kansas St. L 71-98 6%     0 - 2 -16.2 +0.7 -16.5
  Sat, Nov 15 208 Wofford L 86-94 45%     0 - 3 -14.0 +8.8 -22.7
  Wed, Nov 19 56 @Notre Dame L 79-86 4%     0 - 4 +5.5 +12.8 -7.3
  Mon, Nov 24 363 @The Citadel W 70-58 67%     1 - 4 +0.0 +0.2 +1.8
  Tue, Nov 25 282 Houston Christian W 74-69 47%     2 - 4 -1.6 +7.9 -8.8
  Sat, Dec 6 113 @Murray St. L 74-88 9%    
  Sat, Dec 13 181 Northern Kentucky L 74-77 40%    
  Wed, Dec 17 209 Chattanooga L 74-75 46%    
  Tue, Dec 23 23 @Kentucky L 65-90 1%    
  Thu, Jan 1 285 @West Georgia L 73-77 37%    
  Sat, Jan 3 199 @Queens L 76-84 24%    
  Thu, Jan 8 273 Central Arkansas W 75-73 56%    
  Sat, Jan 10 200 North Alabama L 73-75 43%    
  Thu, Jan 15 164 @Lipscomb L 71-81 19%    
  Sat, Jan 17 258 @Eastern Kentucky L 76-81 32%    
  Thu, Jan 22 275 @Jacksonville L 70-74 35%    
  Sat, Jan 24 343 @North Florida W 83-82 53%    
  Wed, Jan 28 285 West Georgia W 76-74 58%    
  Sat, Jan 31 199 Queens L 79-81 43%    
  Thu, Feb 5 348 Stetson W 78-71 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 177 Florida Gulf Coast L 77-80 40%    
  Thu, Feb 12 273 @Central Arkansas L 72-76 36%    
  Sat, Feb 14 182 @Austin Peay L 69-78 23%    
  Thu, Feb 19 164 Lipscomb L 74-78 38%    
  Sat, Feb 21 258 Eastern Kentucky W 79-78 55%    
  Wed, Feb 25 200 @North Alabama L 70-78 25%    
  Sat, Feb 28 182 Austin Peay L 72-75 41%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.2 0.6 0.0 5.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 3.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 4.7 1.7 0.1 8.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 5.7 2.7 0.3 10.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 5.4 4.0 0.6 0.0 11.8 8th
9th 0.2 1.6 5.5 4.5 0.9 0.0 12.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.2 4.7 1.2 0.0 13.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 2.4 3.9 3.5 1.0 0.1 11.7 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 7.4 12th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.6 5.2 7.8 10.9 13.2 13.0 13.0 10.8 8.4 5.9 4.1 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 97.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 89.5% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 60.6% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.1
13-5 27.3% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 7.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 36.1% 36.1% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 28.3% 28.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4
14-4 1.1% 16.1% 16.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
13-5 2.2% 16.3% 16.3% 15.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.9
12-6 4.1% 9.5% 9.5% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.7
11-7 5.9% 7.7% 7.7% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 5.4
10-8 8.4% 5.0% 5.0% 15.9 0.1 0.4 8.0
9-9 10.8% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 10.5
8-10 13.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 12.8
7-11 13.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 12.8
6-12 13.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.0
5-13 10.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.9
4-14 7.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.8
3-15 5.2% 5.2
2-16 2.6% 2.6
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%