Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.7 #225
Expected Predictive Rating -7.1 #278
Pace 69.8 #159
Improvement -4.0 #337

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #158 C+ C C D- D-
Defense #293 D+ C C- F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #280 1.22 #108 -0.9 #219
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #63 0.84 #64 +3.7 #32
Three Pointers 38% #249 1.05 #143 -1.0 #213
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #128 +1.7 #128
Freethrows 14.6 #311 72% #216 10.5 #302
Second Chance 30.5% #183 1.06 #162 0.32 #168
Turnovers 16.3% #163
Total Offense +0.2 #158

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #188 1.18 #214 -0.6 #199
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #325 0.76 #182 +1.9 #47
Three Pointers 46% #51 1.10 #287 -4.3 #328
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #276 -3.0 #277
Freethrows 21.3 #334 77% #337 16.3 #347
Second Chance 30.4% #172 1.03 #167 0.31 #168
Turnovers 15.9% #213
Total Defense -3.9 #293

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #312 1.3% #292
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.6% #92 4.5% #264
Possession Length 17.0 #143 16.9 #119
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #67 0.18 #211
Improvement -3.6 #343 -0.4 #217

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 11.0% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 27.4% 45.7% 19.5%
.500 or above in Conference 63.5% 82.3% 55.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.3% 2.0%
First Four3.3% 2.5% 3.7%
First Round7.6% 10.0% 6.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Away) - 30.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 413 - 714 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 9 @Illinois L 70 - 113 1% -31  0 - 1 -20 +2 C- F A+ -19 F F F
 Tue, Nov 11 251 Georgia Southern L 94 - 95 66% -3  0 - 2 -9 +12 C A+ C+ -21 F A- C
 Sat, Nov 15 247 Chattanooga W 91 - 73 65% +13  1 - 2 +10 +15 B- A+ A -4 C+ B C
 Wed, Nov 19 249 @Samford W 77 - 62 43% +9  2 - 2 +13 +2 B- A+ F +11 A+ C+ B
 Mon, Nov 24 321 Oral Roberts W 93 - 88 81% +0  3 - 2 -8 +9 A+ A D+ -17 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 239 Rice W 78 - 63 OT 64% -4  4 - 2 +8 -9 D- F F +15 A+ A- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 150 Kennesaw St. L 100 - 102 OT 45% -0  4 - 3 -4 +6 B C- B- -10 F A- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 192 @Florida International L 83 - 89 33% -6  4 - 4 -5 +4 C- C- B- -9 C D+ C+
 Sun, Dec 7 95 Florida Atlantic L 76 - 81 27% +0  4 - 5 -2 +6 B B- F -8 A B+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 51 @New Mexico L 59 - 75 6% -5  4 - 6 -2 -4 D+ D B+ +1 A+ C A+
 Sat, Dec 20 53 @Central Florida L 80 - 102 6% -5  4 - 7 -8 +10 A+ D- F -18 F C D+
 Thu, Jan 1 236 @Central Arkansas L 83 - 85 40% +3  4 - 8 0 - 1 -3 +18 A+ C B -21 F F F
 Sat, Jan 3 328 @North Alabama W 72 - 55 64% +8  5 - 8 1 - 1 +10 -4 B- F F +14 A+ A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 8 171 Austin Peay L 71 - 82 51% -3  5 - 9 1 - 2 -15 -1 C C D+ -14 D F C
 Sat, Jan 10 174 Lipscomb L 77 - 84 52% -1  5 - 10 1 - 3 -11 +2 B C- B+ -13 F D A
 Thu, Jan 15 177 Queens L 74 - 85 52% -6  5 - 11 1 - 4 -15 -6 F C+ A+ -9 B C F
 Sat, Jan 17 338 West Georgia W 90 - 72 84% +6  6 - 11 2 - 4 +4 +8 B A+ F -5 C- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 171 @Austin Peay L 62 - 83 29% -12  6 - 12 2 - 5 -19 -5 D+ C F -15 F F F
 Fri, Jan 23 174 @Lipscomb L 75 - 81 30%
 Thu, Jan 29 328 North Alabama W 81 - 71 82%
 Sat, Jan 31 292 @Jacksonville W 72 - 71 54%
 Thu, Feb 5 254 @Eastern Kentucky L 78 - 80 44%
 Sat, Feb 7 300 @Bellarmine W 80 - 79 54%
 Wed, Feb 11 350 North Florida W 92 - 80 86%
 Sat, Feb 14 332 Stetson W 82 - 72 83%
 Thu, Feb 19 292 Jacksonville W 75 - 68 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 236 Central Arkansas W 77 - 74 63%
 Thu, Feb 26 350 @North Florida W 89 - 83 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 332 @Stetson W 79 - 75 65%
Totals 13 - 16 9 - 9 -4 +0 C+ C C -4 D+ C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.4 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.5 0.6 5.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 7.2 8.4 2.3 0.1 19.9 4th
5th 0.0 2.3 10.6 11.2 3.1 0.2 27.4 5th
6th 0.8 7.5 8.4 1.7 0.0 18.6 6th
7th 0.1 3.6 6.6 1.4 0.1 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 4.4 1.6 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.2 2.1 1.7 0.1 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.8 5.1 10.8 18.2 22.4 20.5 14.0 5.5 1.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 5.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.1% 25.2% 25.2% 13.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.8
12-6 5.5% 18.8% 18.8% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 4.5
11-7 14.0% 13.5% 13.5% 15.4 0.0 1.0 0.9 12.1
10-8 20.5% 11.2% 11.2% 15.7 0.0 0.8 1.5 18.3
9-9 22.4% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 0.1 1.8 20.6
8-10 18.2% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 1.0 17.2
7-11 10.8% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.4 10.4
6-12 5.1% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 4.9
5-13 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-14 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 15.6 91.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.8 32.7 58.2 9.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%