Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -4.6 243
Expected Predictive Rating -7.2 279
Pace 69.5 155
Improvement -4.7 345

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #214 C C C- D+ D
Defense C- #261 C- C C D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 311 60% 131 -2.5 267
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 65 42% 67 +3.2 39
Three Pointers 40% 211 34% 170 -0.6 201
1st FG Attempt 1.03 160 +0.2 165
Second Chance 30.1% 195 1.03 167 0.31 179
Turnovers 17.8% 238
Freethrows 0.27 290 72% 188 0.20 277
Total Offense -1.8 214

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 232 60% 233 +0.2 167
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 292 37% 149 +1.7 63
Three Pointers 46% 44 35% 253 -3.8 328
1st FG Attempt 1.06 244 -1.9 240
Second Chance 31.0% 203 1.03 195 0.32 210
Turnovers 16.6% 198
Freethrows 0.36 325 75% 323 0.27 338
Total Defense -2.8 261

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.2 319 +0.3 233
Shot Type Accuracy +1.6 115 +1.6 242
Possession Length 17.3 167 17.1 147
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 121 0.18 219
Improvement -6.6 #360 +1.9 #86

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7% 7% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 6% 7% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 48% 56% 14%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 1%
First Four4% 4% 5%
First Round5% 5% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Stetson (Home) - 81.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 412 - 713 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 6 @Illinois L 70 - 113 1% -31  0% 0 - 1 F -19 C- -1 D+ D- A+ F -14 F+ F+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 274 Georgia Southern L 94 - 95 68% -3  22% 0 - 2 D -10 B+ +9 C+ A C+ F -19 F B C-
 Sat, Nov 15 282 Chattanooga W 91 - 73 70% +13  97% 1 - 2 B +8 A +12 B A+ B D+ -4 C+ B D+
 Wed, Nov 19 194 @Samford W 77 - 62 30% +9  93% 2 - 2 A- +16 C +1 B A F A+ +15 A B- C+
 Mon, Nov 24 337 Oral Roberts W 93 - 88 82% +0  52% 3 - 2 D -9 B +6 A- A- D+ F -16 F F+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 220 Rice W 78 - 63 OT 56% -4  10% 4 - 2 B +9 F -12 D F+ F A+ +19 A A- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 154 Kennesaw St. L 100 - 102 OT 44% -0  40% 4 - 3 D+ -5 B- +4 B- C- B- D- -8 F B+ A
 Wed, Dec 3 188 @Florida International L 83 - 89 29% -6  6% 4 - 4 D+ -5 C+ +2 C- C+ B- D -6 C+ D- C
 Sun, Dec 7 114 Florida Atlantic L 76 - 81 32% +0  46% 4 - 5 D+ -5 C +1 B+ C+ F D -6 B B- C-
 Sun, Dec 14 49 @New Mexico L 59 - 75 5% -5  33% 4 - 6 C- -2 D- -8 D+ D+ B B +5 A+ C- A-
 Sat, Dec 20 52 @Central Florida L 80 - 102 6% -5  30% 4 - 7 D -8 B +6 A+ D+ F+ F -14 F C- C-
 Thu, Jan 1 190 @Central Arkansas L 83 - 85 29% +3  69% 4 - 8 0 - 1 C -1 A+ +16 A+ C+ A- F -17 F+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 344 @North Alabama W 72 - 55 67% +8  94% 5 - 8 1 - 1 B- +8 D- -7 C+ F F A+ +16 A+ A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 8 152 Austin Peay L 71 - 82 43% -3  22% 5 - 9 1 - 2 D- -14 D+ -4 C C+ D- F+ -10 C- F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 187 Lipscomb L 77 - 84 51% -1  30% 5 - 10 1 - 3 D- -12 D+ -2 B- C- B F+ -9 D- D B+
 Thu, Jan 15 218 Queens L 74 - 85 55% -6  14% 5 - 11 1 - 4 F+ -17 F -10 F C A D -6 B- C F+
 Sat, Jan 17 317 West Georgia W 90 - 72 78% +3  69% 6 - 11 2 - 4 B- +5 B +7 B+ A+ D C- -2 D A F+
 Thu, Jan 22 152 @Austin Peay L 62 - 83 23% -12  2% 6 - 12 2 - 5 F -18 F+ -8 D+ B- F F+ -10 D F+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 187 @Lipscomb L 71 - 86 29% -5  31% 6 - 13 2 - 6 D- -14 B- +4 D A+ B+ F -19 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 29 344 North Alabama W 72 - 64 84% +8  87% 7 - 13 3 - 6 D+ -7 F+ -8 D+ F+ F C+ +1 B+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 308 @Jacksonville W 68 - 49 55% +3  54% 8 - 13 4 - 6 B+ +13 D -5 F+ C+ B- A+ +19 A A A+
 Thu, Feb 5 267 @Eastern Kentucky L 74 - 76 44% +6  71% 8 - 14 4 - 7 D+ -5 D- -6 C F F C+ +1 C+ D- C+
 Sat, Feb 7 283 @Bellarmine L 65 - 81 48% -6  14% 8 - 15 4 - 8 F -20 F -16 F F C- D+ -5 F A+ D-
 Wed, Feb 11 345 North Florida W 90 - 81 84% +7  86% 9 - 15 5 - 8 D+ -6 C- -2 B D- C+ D+ -4 C C D-
 Sat, Feb 14 333 Stetson W 80 - 71 82%
 Thu, Feb 19 308 Jacksonville W 74 - 67 75%
 Sat, Feb 21 190 Central Arkansas W 76 - 75 52%
 Thu, Feb 26 345 @North Florida W 87 - 82 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 333 @Stetson W 77 - 74 62%
Totals 12 - 17 8 - 10 -5 C- -2 C C C- C- -3 C- C C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ B- C C+ 33% 27% 40% D C C C C C- D C D+ C- C- C+ D+ C- 37% 17% 46% C- C- C C C C D- D D-
1.06 60% 42% 34% +2 -1 1.03 30% 1.0 .31 18% .27 72% .20 1.13 60% 37% 35% +2 0 1.06 31% 1.0 .32 17% .36 75% .20
Nov
7		 Illinois C- C D D+ C- 20% 45% 35% F D+ C F D- A+ C A+ B F F C- D+ F 38% 13% 49% C- F+ B- F F+ F+ F F F
0.93 54% 30% 30% -6 -5 0.80 25% 0.5 .13 1% .16 92% .15 1.51 86% 43% 37% +14 +1 1.31 39% 1.5 .61 9% .50 88% .44
Nov
11		 Georgia Southern B+ C- A B B- 39% 20% 41% D C+ A+ D A C+ F F F F F F F F 34% 6% 60% D+ F A D+ B C- B B+ B+
1.29 57% 50% 38% +4 0 1.10 55% 1.0 .53 18% .18 45% .08 1.30 72% 100% 47% +20 +2 1.45 21% 1.2 .24 15% .29 67% .19
Nov
15		 Chattanooga A A A+ D+ A- 34% 28% 38% D- B B+ A A+ B F A+ D- D+ B B B- B 42% 6% 52% F C+ C- A+ B D+ F B+ F
1.32 70% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.12 39% 1.4 .55 12% .25 87% .21 1.06 52% 33% 31% -5 +2 0.96 21% 0.7 .15 14% .51 70% .35
Nov
19		 Samford C D- A+ B- B+ 38% 40% 23% D B A+ C- A F C F D+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 36% 22% 42% C A F A+ B- C+ D- A+ C+
1.12 50% 63% 36% +8 -3 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 25% .29 67% .19 0.90 39% 55% 24% -10 0 0.82 32% 0.7 .21 15% .41 54% .22
Nov
24		 Oral Roberts B A+ A D A+ 36% 30% 34% F A- A- C+ A- D+ A+ C A+ F F+ D+ F F 46% 10% 44% F+ F D- F+ F+ A+ F D F
1.26 82% 50% 31% +11 -1 1.21 41% 1.2 .48 16% .55 71% .39 1.19 64% 40% 48% +12 +2 1.29 31% 1.1 .35 24% .45 76% .34
Nov
25		 Rice F F+ F A+ D 34% 30% 36% C D D F+ F+ F A+ C- A+ A+ D C A+ A+ 39% 20% 41% F A A+ F A- A+ D+ B- C-
0.98 53% 20% 44% -1 -2 0.96 28% 0.8 .23 20% .52 73% .38 0.79 62% 36% 14% -11 0 0.80 21% 1.1 .23 24% .33 65% .21
Nov
26		 Kennesaw St. B- C- C+ A B 42% 20% 38% C- B- D+ C C- B- A+ D+ A D- F+ F C F 49% 7% 44% F+ F C- A+ B+ A F F F
1.15 52% 38% 42% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.0 .27 14% .52 72% .37 1.17 67% 50% 33% +5 +2 1.16 36% 0.7 .25 22% .53 81% .43
Dec
3		 Florida International C+ C+ D- F D 49% 11% 40% B+ C- B+ D C+ B- B- A+ A D C+ A C- C+ 40% 14% 46% D+ C+ B F D- C F F F
1.09 59% 33% 27% -4 +2 0.98 41% 0.9 .38 18% .34 86% .29 1.17 55% 29% 35% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.4 .41 17% .56 86% .48
Dec
7		 Florida Atlantic C B A+ D- B 47% 14% 39% B- B+ C+ C C+ F C- A+ B D C A+ B- B+ 44% 17% 40% D+ B D- A+ B- C- F F F
1.10 63% 57% 30% +2 +2 1.10 29% 1.0 .29 22% .29 88% .26 1.17 57% 25% 32% -4 +1 0.96 39% 0.9 .33 17% .56 84% .47
Dec
14		 New Mexico D- D- C+ D C- 12% 24% 63% D- D+ C- D D+ B D+ F D- B A F A+ A+ 35% 4% 61% D+ A+ F A+ C- A- F F F
0.86 50% 42% 29% -5 -2 0.88 24% 0.9 .22 18% .25 64% .16 1.10 47% 100% 23% -11 +2 0.84 44% 0.8 .33 19% .49 89% .43
Dec
20		 Central Florida B F+ C+ A+ A+ 30% 21% 48% C- A+ D C- D+ F+ F F F F B+ A F F 36% 12% 52% D F F A C- C- A A+ A+
1.11 47% 42% 56% +13 -1 1.27 19% 1.0 .19 21% .09 60% .05 1.42 52% 29% 60% +17 +1 1.38 47% 1.0 .47 14% .19 58% .11
Jan
1		 Central Arkansas A+ A+ C A+ A+ 27% 16% 57% D+ A+ F A+ C+ A- D- A+ C F D- B F F 37% 20% 43% C+ F+ F F F F F+ F F
1.29 79% 38% 45% +15 0 1.31 19% 1.8 .35 16% .22 92% .20 1.33 67% 30% 43% +7 0 1.16 34% 1.4 .47 11% .35 80% .28
Jan
3		 North Alabama D- C- B A- C+ 40% 21% 38% D+ C+ F+ F+ F F F C+ F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 48% 12% 40% F+ A+ A+ A A+ D- F C+ F
1.05 57% 45% 40% +5 0 1.12 28% 1.0 .28 19% .16 78% .13 0.80 42% 0% 25% -18 +2 0.70 15% 0.8 .13 15% .46 67% .31
Jan
8		 Austin Peay D+ C- A+ D+ B- 24% 31% 45% F C D+ A- C+ D- C+ D+ C F+ A- A+ F+ C 35% 10% 54% D- C- D+ F F D+ F C F
1.03 58% 60% 32% +5 -2 1.08 28% 0.9 .25 22% .31 65% .20 1.19 47% 20% 38% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.7 .53 14% .42 72% .31
Jan
10		 Lipscomb D+ C+ A+ F+ B 35% 38% 27% F B- D B C- B B- F C- F+ B+ A+ F F+ 39% 12% 49% C D- C F D B+ F F F
1.08 61% 55% 29% +5 -3 1.08 26% 1.1 .29 15% .31 63% .20 1.17 50% 17% 48% +5 +1 1.14 25% 1.3 .32 20% .37 86% .31
Jan
15		 Queens F D- C+ F F 42% 25% 32% D+ F D A C A C- A+ A+ D C- F A- B 40% 8% 53% D- B- C C C F+ F D F
1.04 52% 40% 16% -11 0 0.80 29% 1.3 .36 10% .34 100% .34 1.20 62% 50% 29% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.1 .33 11% .45 79% .35
Jan
17		 West Georgia B A+ F A+ A 43% 30% 26% F B+ C+ A+ A+ D A+ B- A+ C- D C+ C+ D 26% 25% 49% D D B+ A+ A F+ D A+ C+
1.28 80% 21% 50% +11 -1 1.22 32% 1.5 .48 17% .61 75% .46 1.02 60% 36% 32% -1 -1 0.96 26% 0.7 .19 13% .31 58% .18
Jan
22		 Austin Peay F+ C C C- C- 37% 27% 37% D D+ A D+ B- F F F F F+ C+ F C- D- 28% 24% 48% B+ D F+ D F+ F B C- B-
0.92 61% 38% 33% +1 -1 1.02 40% 0.6 .26 27% .18 44% .08 1.24 53% 54% 35% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.3 .42 12% .25 73% .19
Jan
23		 Lipscomb B- A+ F B- D+ 17% 28% 54% F D C A+ A+ B+ A F B F C+ A+ F F 19% 15% 66% A F F F F C- D- F F
1.13 75% 15% 36% -2 -3 0.93 31% 1.6 .50 14% .37 65% .24 1.36 56% 0% 55% +15 -1 1.30 37% 1.3 .48 16% .30 88% .26
Jan
29		 North Alabama F+ D A C C- 27% 20% 53% F+ D+ D F+ F+ F F+ A+ D+ C+ F A+ A+ B+ 48% 24% 28% C+ B+ B- F F D+ F D F
1.09 54% 50% 35% +2 -1 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 20% .21 91% .19 0.97 68% 18% 8% -11 0 0.80 27% 1.8 .48 17% .43 71% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Jacksonville D D+ F B F+ 48% 25% 27% C- F+ F+ A+ C+ B- A- F C A+ C F A+ A 34% 30% 36% A- A B- A+ A A+ C- A+ B
1.03 57% 25% 38% -2 0 0.98 22% 1.4 .31 14% .44 60% .26 0.74 56% 50% 6% -12 -1 0.74 26% 0.7 .18 24% .30 53% .16
Feb
5		 Eastern Kentucky D- A+ B- D+ C+ 21% 25% 54% F+ C D+ F F F F B- F+ C+ F A B C 16% 22% 61% B- C+ C- F D- C+ F F F
1.06 91% 46% 32% +8 -2 1.13 29% 0.7 .21 21% .24 77% .18 1.09 88% 27% 30% -1 -2 0.96 33% 1.3 .44 19% .44 80% .35
Feb
7		 Bellarmine F D+ A- F F 19% 32% 49% F F F+ F F C- D D- D- D+ D F F F 35% 12% 53% C+ F A+ A+ A+ D- C- D- D+
0.97 60% 47% 27% -2 -3 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 16% .27 67% .18 1.20 67% 50% 44% +13 +1 1.29 4% 0.0 .00 13% .31 83% .26
Feb
11		 North Florida C- C+ A A+ A- 42% 32% 26% F B D D D- C+ A+ F B+ D+ B+ F C- C+ 29% 11% 61% C C F+ A C D- F A F
1.24 64% 53% 43% +11 -1 1.21 33% 1.1 .36 11% .46 53% .25 1.11 50% 50% 35% 0 +1 1.04 31% 0.9 .28 15% .39 71% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.4 2.1 2.4 4th
5th 0.1 9.5 27.3 12.6 49.6 5th
6th 1.9 15.3 5.6 0.2 22.9 6th
7th 0.0 5.3 5.8 0.2 11.3 7th
8th 0.3 5.9 0.6 6.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.7 2.2 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.1 2.3 0.2 2.6 10th
11th 0.3 0.3 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.5 4.6 15.5 31.1 33.5 14.9 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 14.9% 12.1% 12.1% 15.3 0.0 1.2 0.5 13.1
9-9 33.5% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.1 2.6 30.9
8-10 31.1% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6 29.5
7-11 15.5% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.5 14.9
6-12 4.6% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 4.4
5-13 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 15.8 93.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 15.3 1.7 68.3 30.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.3%
Lose Out 0.2%