Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#164
Expected Predictive Rating-0.6#181
Pace62.8#323
Improvement+1.9#96

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#161
First Shot+0.0#176
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#132
Layup/Dunks+2.8#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#231
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#86
Freethrows-4.9#364
Improvement+2.5#57

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#188
First Shot-1.6#231
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#90
Layups/Dunks+1.5#116
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#176
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#337
Freethrows+1.3#96
Improvement-0.5#214
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.6% 19.7% 15.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.5
.500 or above 95.4% 97.8% 88.3%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 49.0% 56.4% 26.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round18.5% 19.6% 15.2%
Second Round0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Home) - 75.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 33 - 55 - 10
Quad 414 - 319 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 159   @ UNC Greensboro L 64-73 39%     0 - 1 -6.1 -2.4 -4.4
  Nov 08, 2024 68   @ TCU L 51-67 17%     0 - 2 -5.6 -9.2 +2.0
  Nov 13, 2024 95   St. Bonaventure L 65-74 40%     0 - 3 -6.2 -5.4 -0.9
  Nov 16, 2024 73   @ Drake L 61-63 18%     0 - 4 +8.1 +0.1 +7.8
  Nov 22, 2024 258   Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-54 78%     1 - 4 +12.0 +11.1 +5.0
  Nov 23, 2024 206   Northeastern L 55-59 68%     1 - 5 -8.7 -13.1 +3.9
  Nov 24, 2024 243   Florida International W 60-59 76%     2 - 5 -6.4 -7.9 +1.6
  Nov 30, 2024 106   @ Florida Atlantic W 80-78 27%     3 - 5 +8.7 +14.8 -5.9
  Dec 04, 2024 165   Furman L 73-76 60%     3 - 6 -5.3 +2.0 -7.5
  Dec 08, 2024 71   @ LSU L 71-80 17%     3 - 7 +1.3 +5.9 -4.8
  Dec 18, 2024 117   @ UNC Wilmington L 66-79 31%     3 - 8 -7.7 +1.5 -10.7
  Dec 28, 2024 220   @ Richmond W 75-57 54%     4 - 8 +17.2 +7.7 +10.7
  Jan 02, 2025 345   @ West Georgia W 79-68 82%     5 - 8 1 - 0 +1.6 +4.2 -2.2
  Jan 04, 2025 213   @ Queens L 83-92 52%     5 - 9 1 - 1 -9.4 +10.0 -19.5
  Jan 09, 2025 155   North Alabama W 75-70 58%     6 - 9 2 - 1 +3.1 +2.7 +0.6
  Jan 11, 2025 341   Central Arkansas W 77-71 90%     7 - 9 3 - 1 -8.3 -0.8 -7.4
  Jan 16, 2025 345   West Georgia W 82-60 91%     8 - 9 4 - 1 +7.7 -1.2 +7.9
  Jan 18, 2025 213   Queens W 60-47 70%     9 - 9 5 - 1 +7.6 -5.7 +15.6
  Jan 23, 2025 356   @ Bellarmine W 77-61 85%     10 - 9 6 - 1 +5.0 +4.6 +2.3
  Jan 25, 2025 231   @ Eastern Kentucky L 77-81 56%     10 - 10 6 - 2 -5.5 +2.5 -8.1
  Jan 29, 2025 179   @ Jacksonville W 83-79 45%     11 - 10 7 - 2 +5.6 +17.0 -11.3
  Feb 01, 2025 334   Stetson W 82-56 90%     12 - 10 8 - 2 +12.3 +10.5 +5.1
  Feb 06, 2025 231   Eastern Kentucky W 77-70 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 245   @ North Florida W 80-77 58%    
  Feb 13, 2025 296   @ Austin Peay W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 15, 2025 110   @ Lipscomb L 67-73 28%    
  Feb 18, 2025 179   Jacksonville W 70-66 65%    
  Feb 20, 2025 334   @ Stetson W 77-68 78%    
  Feb 24, 2025 245   North Florida W 83-75 78%    
  Feb 26, 2025 356   Bellarmine W 79-63 94%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 5.5 21.5 17.9 4.0 49.0 1st
2nd 0.0 2.2 13.6 6.9 22.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 6.9 6.6 0.1 14.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 5.4 0.6 8.4 4th
5th 0.4 2.7 0.9 4.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 1.4 6.2 15.5 26.3 28.5 17.9 4.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 4.0    4.0
15-3 100.0% 17.9    14.6 3.3
14-4 75.5% 21.5    6.6 10.9 3.8 0.2
13-5 20.9% 5.5    0.2 1.4 2.5 1.1 0.3
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 49.0% 49.0 25.4 15.6 6.3 1.4 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 4.0% 32.0% 32.0% 12.9 0.4 0.8 0.2 2.7
15-3 17.9% 24.0% 24.0% 13.8 0.1 1.4 2.2 0.6 0.0 13.6
14-4 28.5% 22.2% 22.2% 14.3 0.7 3.2 2.3 0.1 22.2
13-5 26.3% 15.6% 15.6% 14.7 0.1 1.5 2.2 0.3 22.2
12-6 15.5% 12.2% 12.2% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.3 13.6
11-7 6.2% 9.7% 9.7% 15.2 0.0 0.5 0.1 5.6
10-8 1.4% 4.2% 4.2% 15.2 0.1 0.0 1.4
9-9 0.2% 0.2
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.6% 18.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.4 3.0 7.4 6.9 0.8 81.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 12.9 27.6 59.1 13.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%