Kennesaw St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.1 154
Expected Predictive Rating -0.4 169
Pace 77.3 17
Improvement +1.0 140

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #153 C- C+ C B B
Defense C #174 C+ C+ D+ F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 94 55% 247 +0.8 150
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 319 35% 287 -3.1 322
Three Pointers 45% 114 32% 260 +0.5 159
1st FG Attempt 0.98 226 -1.8 224
Second Chance 34.9% 65 0.95 291 0.33 128
Turnovers 17.3% 199
Freethrows 0.36 36 70% 260 0.25 73
Total Offense +0.3 153

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 52 50% 21 +0.4 156
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 242 37% 135 +1.1 108
Three Pointers 38% 262 37% 307 -0.1 186
1st FG Attempt 0.99 129 +1.4 129
Second Chance 30.1% 164 1.00 134 0.30 151
Turnovers 15.6% 256
Freethrows 0.39 359 74% 300 0.29 358
Total Defense -0.2 174

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.1 46 +0.6 285
Shot Type Accuracy -2.8 281 -1.9 100
Possession Length 15.2 22 17.2 175
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 166 0.19 238
Improvement -0.5 #218 +1.5 #103

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8% 9% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 85% 92% 72%
.500 or above in Conference 76% 86% 57%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 1%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round8% 9% 6%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Home) - 65.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 35 - 55 - 10
Quad 412 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 328 @Florida A&M W 92 - 72 77% +9  87% 1 - 0 B+ +12 C+ +3 A- D- B- B+ +7 A+ C F
 Sun, Nov 16 62 South Florida L 89 - 108 29% -9  0% 1 - 1 D- -13 B- +5 D A B- F -16 D+ D+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 220 Rice W 89 - 84 OT 62% -1  34% 2 - 1 C+ +2 C- -1 C- C C B- +3 C- B C+
 Tue, Nov 25 337 Oral Roberts L 83 - 91 86% +1  55% 2 - 2 F -19 D -5 D+ D F F -13 F B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 243 @Florida Gulf Coast W 102 - 100 OT 56% +0  50% 3 - 2 C +0 B +6 B D F D -6 C- B- F+
 Tue, Dec 2 343 Jackson St. W 88 - 73 91% +9  74% 4 - 2 C -0 C +1 F A B+ C -2 B+ F C
 Sat, Dec 6 276 Georgia St. W 92 - 69 82% +16  97% 5 - 2 B+ +14 C- -2 A C F A +12 A+ D- D
 Wed, Dec 17 173 @Middle Tennessee L 67 - 68 42% -7  4% 5 - 3 0 - 1 C +1 D- -6 F B- F+ B+ +7 A A A-
 Sun, Dec 21 17 Alabama L 81 - 92 6% -18  0% 5 - 4 B- +7 C +1 C+ A+ F B+ +7 A B+ D
 Fri, Jan 2 95 @Liberty L 73 - 81 22% -8  1% 5 - 5 0 - 2 C +0 D -5 F C- C B +5 C+ B B+
 Sun, Jan 4 279 @Delaware L 52 - 67 65% -5  22% 5 - 6 0 - 3 F -19 F -20 F D- F C -0 D+ B- D
 Wed, Jan 7 179 Missouri St. W 90 - 80 66% +8  90% 6 - 6 1 - 3 B- +6 B +7 A+ B- F C- -2 C+ C C
 Sat, Jan 10 184 Jacksonville St. W 88 - 82 67% +5  96% 7 - 6 2 - 3 C +1 B+ +9 C+ A+ B+ D- -8 F C+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 188 Florida International W 89 - 86 69% -4  19% 8 - 6 3 - 3 C- -2 B +7 B D A D- -9 A- F D-
 Sat, Jan 17 160 @Western Kentucky W 81 - 65 40% +5  79% 9 - 6 4 - 3 A +19 B +6 B- D- B+ A +12 B A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 21 121 @Sam Houston St. L 87 - 93 29% -5  2% 9 - 7 4 - 4 C -0 A- +10 C B A+ F+ -10 F C F
 Fri, Jan 23 223 @Louisiana Tech L 76 - 82 51% +2  63% 9 - 8 4 - 5 D+ -6 B+ +8 C B- A- F -15 F F C-
 Wed, Jan 28 160 Western Kentucky W 72 - 69 63% -0  56% 10 - 8 5 - 5 C -0 D -4 C C- C B- +4 A+ D- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 167 New Mexico St. W 76 - 53 64% +15  82% 11 - 8 6 - 5 A +20 C +1 C A- A- A+ +19 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Feb 7 184 @Jacksonville St. L 58 - 77 45% -11  4% 11 - 9 6 - 6 F -18 F -12 F B C D -7 D- C D-
 Thu, Feb 12 173 Middle Tennessee W 78 - 74 65%
 Sat, Feb 14 121 Sam Houston St. W 83 - 82 51%
 Wed, Feb 18 179 @Missouri St. L 75 - 77 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 223 Louisiana Tech W 74 - 68 73%
 Thu, Feb 26 95 Liberty L 77 - 79 41%
 Sat, Feb 28 279 Delaware W 78 - 68 82%
 Thu, Mar 5 239 @UTEP W 75 - 74 55%
 Sat, Mar 7 167 @New Mexico St. L 77 - 79 41%
Totals 16 - 12 11 - 9 +0 C +0 C- C+ C C +0 C+ C+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- D+ D+ D+ 42% 14% 45% B C- B D+ C+ C B+ D+ B C B+ C+ D B- 44% 18% 38% D+ C+ C C+ C+ D+ F D F
1.09 55% 35% 32% -3 +1 0.98 35% 0.9 .33 17% .36 70% .25 1.09 50% 37% 37% -2 +1 0.99 30% 1.0 .30 16% .39 74% .27
Nov
8		 Florida A&M C+ A C- A- A- 47% 15% 38% B- A- F A+ D- B- A F+ B B+ A+ A A+ A+ 49% 20% 31% F+ A+ D+ C+ C F F F+ F
1.14 72% 38% 40% +10 +1 1.25 15% 1.5 .22 17% .42 71% .30 0.89 41% 25% 22% -16 +1 0.71 30% 0.8 .23 15% .48 73% .35
Nov
16		 South Florida B- C F F F 52% 5% 43% A+ D A+ C- A B- A+ D- A+ F B B- F+ C- 60% 6% 35% F+ D+ C D D+ F F F F
1.12 55% 0% 25% -9 +3 0.89 46% 1.0 .44 18% .59 64% .38 1.36 52% 33% 39% -1 +3 1.06 39% 1.3 .50 11% .65 83% .54
Nov
24		 Rice C- D- F B+ D 40% 17% 43% A C- B+ F+ C C A+ B- A+ B- A D- D- C 33% 29% 38% D+ C- B- B+ B C+ F B+ F
1.10 54% 20% 38% -2 +1 1.00 39% 0.8 .32 16% .44 77% .34 1.04 44% 44% 38% 0 -2 0.98 34% 0.8 .27 19% .58 63% .37
Nov
25		 Oral Roberts D D+ A+ D- C- 38% 22% 40% D- D+ C F D F A+ D- A+ F F+ A+ F F 44% 11% 44% D- F A C- B+ A+ F F F
1.07 53% 55% 30% -1 0 1.00 33% 0.9 .31 19% .56 66% .37 1.17 65% 20% 60% +19 +2 1.42 17% 1.0 .17 26% .49 86% .42
Nov
26		 Florida Gulf Coast B B+ A+ C- B- 49% 7% 44% A B B F D F A+ B+ A+ D B+ C+ F C 42% 20% 38% F C- B- C+ B- F+ F C F
1.17 67% 50% 33% +5 +2 1.16 36% 0.7 .25 22% .53 81% .43 1.15 52% 38% 42% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.0 .27 14% .52 72% .37
Dec
2		 Jackson St. C D+ F F F 41% 2% 57% A F A+ C A B+ A+ F A+ C A+ D+ A- A- 31% 24% 45% C- B+ D F F C F F F
1.21 57% 0% 21% -12 +3 0.82 50% 1.0 .52 12% .61 64% .39 1.00 33% 42% 27% -11 -1 0.78 29% 1.3 .37 19% .49 90% .44
Dec
6		 Georgia St. C- B- C A+ A 44% 15% 41% B- A D- A C F A+ F A- A A+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 16% 46% F A+ B- F D- D F B- F
1.09 63% 38% 45% +9 +1 1.22 27% 1.2 .33 23% .44 62% .28 0.82 29% 11% 15% -28 +1 0.46 25% 1.4 .36 14% .46 76% .35
Dec
17		 Middle Tennessee D- D F F F 56% 8% 35% A+ F A+ F B- F+ A- A- A+ B+ B A C+ A 29% 31% 40% A- A F A+ A A- F F F
0.97 52% 25% 18% -13 +3 0.81 43% 0.7 .31 19% .39 82% .32 0.98 54% 29% 33% -4 -2 0.89 37% 0.4 .15 20% .58 75% .43
Dec
21		 Alabama C B- C D- B- 30% 33% 37% D C+ A- A+ A+ F C+ A+ B+ B+ B- A B+ A+ 40% 14% 46% C+ A B+ C+ B+ D C C- C
1.03 59% 37% 29% -3 -2 0.91 35% 1.2 .42 20% .29 78% .22 1.17 58% 33% 30% -3 +1 0.97 30% 1.2 .34 10% .33 78% .25
Jan
2		 Liberty D F F F F 40% 12% 48% B+ F A+ F C- C C- D+ D+ B B- F D- B- 56% 4% 40% D C+ B+ C B B+ F F F
1.00 38% 29% 28% -14 +1 0.77 46% 0.8 .35 18% .22 69% .15 1.11 57% 50% 40% +4 +3 1.16 14% 1.0 .14 16% .39 79% .31
Jan
4		 Delaware F F A+ F F 22% 16% 61% C F B F D- F D A+ C C D+ D- C- D+ 51% 19% 30% F+ D+ C A B- D F+ A+ C-
0.81 18% 75% 23% -13 -1 0.76 35% 0.5 .19 20% .24 92% .22 1.05 63% 44% 36% +4 +1 1.13 20% 0.7 .13 16% .32 59% .19
Jan
7		 Missouri St. B A- D A A 38% 6% 56% A+ A+ B- C+ B- F A+ B+ A+ C- A D+ C B 46% 15% 39% F C+ F A+ C C F A F+
1.21 72% 33% 41% +11 +2 1.27 36% 1.1 .39 24% .57 78% .44 1.07 52% 38% 33% -3 +1 0.98 42% 0.8 .36 17% .50 58% .29
Jan
10		 Jacksonville St. B+ C- F C+ C- 48% 9% 43% A- C+ B A+ A+ B+ A+ D A+ D- C+ F F F 55% 4% 40% F F C- B- C+ D+ F B+ D
1.21 55% 25% 35% -2 +2 1.02 33% 1.5 .52 14% .54 74% .40 1.13 54% 50% 47% +6 +3 1.21 31% 0.9 .28 17% .45 63% .28
Jan
14		 Florida International B D+ F A+ B+ 31% 15% 55% C- B C+ F D A A+ F B+ D- A+ A F A 53% 13% 35% F A- F F+ F D- F+ D F
1.21 53% 13% 47% +5 0 1.13 37% 0.8 .30 15% .46 59% .27 1.16 31% 29% 47% -8 +2 0.89 44% 1.2 .53 14% .39 72% .28
Jan
17		 Western Kentucky B F B+ A+ B- 27% 22% 51% C B- B- F D- B+ A A- A+ A A+ B- D B+ 37% 16% 47% C- B A- A+ A+ D- D- A C-
1.12 43% 45% 42% +4 -1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 15% .47 76% .36 0.90 24% 33% 37% -11 +1 0.81 27% 0.5 .14 11% .36 65% .23
Jan
21		 Sam Houston St. A- B- F B+ C 33% 21% 47% C- C B C B A+ D B D+ F+ F A+ F F 41% 23% 36% C+ F A+ F C F D+ A C
1.18 63% 17% 37% -1 0 1.00 36% 1.1 .38 11% .29 74% .21 1.26 74% 23% 50% +12 0 1.25 22% 1.6 .34 12% .29 63% .19
Jan
23		 Louisiana Tech B+ F A+ C+ C- 43% 15% 43% C+ C B- C B- A- A+ D+ A+ F B- F F F 48% 22% 30% D+ F D F F C- F D+ F
1.16 40% 57% 35% -4 +1 0.96 36% 1.1 .39 14% .58 70% .41 1.25 50% 60% 50% +8 +1 1.20 39% 1.1 .43 17% .44 67% .29
Jan
28		 Western Kentucky D F+ F A+ D 59% 5% 36% A+ C B- D- C- C A+ F+ A- B- A+ A- B A+ 40% 19% 40% C- A+ D+ D- D- D- F F F
1.01 46% 0% 44% -3 +4 1.02 31% 0.7 .23 18% .52 63% .33 0.97 26% 27% 30% -17 0 0.68 36% 1.1 .38 11% .40 88% .35
Jan
31		 New Mexico St. C A F D- C 33% 19% 49% C+ C C+ A+ A- A- A+ F A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 26% 41% 33% A+ A+ A- A+ A+ B F D- F
1.14 71% 25% 29% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.4 .47 12% .61 69% .42 0.79 30% 38% 15% -17 -4 0.62 26% 0.6 .16 18% .64 77% .49
Feb
7		 Jacksonville St. F F D F F 31% 12% 57% C+ F C A B C B- F C- D C+ D F F+ 41% 11% 48% C D- C C- C D- D- D+ F+
0.88 44% 33% 21% -16 +1 0.71 30% 1.2 .36 17% .34 68% .24 1.16 53% 40% 41% +3 +1 1.11 30% 1.0 .30 15% .43 71% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.7 5.5 1.4 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.6 8.1 8.6 1.5 18.8 3rd
4th 0.1 5.1 11.4 2.5 0.0 19.0 4th
5th 1.5 11.9 4.7 0.2 18.3 5th
6th 0.1 5.6 6.3 0.3 12.3 6th
7th 1.1 6.2 1.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.8 2.1 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.5 2.2 0.2 2.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 0.3 1.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.2 1.9 6.5 15.6 24.9 25.4 17.0 7.0 1.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.4% 18.2% 18.2% 12.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
13-7 7.0% 16.2% 16.2% 13.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 5.9
12-8 17.0% 13.5% 13.5% 13.8 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.3 14.7
11-9 25.4% 9.3% 9.3% 14.1 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.0 23.0
10-10 24.9% 5.0% 5.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 23.7
9-11 15.6% 3.7% 3.7% 15.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 15.0
8-12 6.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.7 0.1 0.1 6.4
7-13 1.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.9
6-14 0.2% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 14.0 91.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.5 50.0 46.2 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%