Kennesaw St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#162
Expected Predictive Rating+2.9#122
Pace79.0#11
Improvement-1.8#299

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#156
First Shot-4.0#297
After Offensive Rebound+4.4#11
Layup/Dunks-6.7#351
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#123
Freethrows+3.8#21
Improvement-1.8#311

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#188
First Shot-0.8#198
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#163
Layups/Dunks-1.1#212
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#39
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#84
Freethrows-4.1#354
Improvement-0.1#186
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 5.2% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.1 13.7
.500 or above 39.4% 53.3% 28.9%
.500 or above in Conference 40.7% 47.4% 35.7%
Conference Champion 3.5% 4.4% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 13.6% 10.4% 16.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round4.0% 5.1% 3.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Away) - 42.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 62 - 7
Quad 36 - 78 - 14
Quad 46 - 114 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 176   @ California Baptist L 84-88 41%     0 - 1 -1.9 +5.5 -7.1
  Nov 16, 2024 250   Presbyterian W 85-67 77%     1 - 1 +10.1 +10.9 -0.1
  Nov 20, 2024 207   Abilene Christian W 84-78 68%     2 - 1 +0.9 +6.0 -5.4
  Nov 24, 2024 64   Rutgers W 79-77 28%     3 - 1 +7.8 +0.4 +7.2
  Nov 28, 2024 60   UC Irvine L 59-76 19%     3 - 2 -7.8 -9.4 +2.7
  Nov 29, 2024 213   Towson W 67-63 OT 59%     4 - 2 +1.5 -2.2 +3.9
  Nov 30, 2024 113   Kent St. L 60-67 36%     4 - 3 -3.6 -7.2 +3.5
  Dec 06, 2024 263   @ Georgia St. W 81-77 59%     5 - 3 +1.4 +2.7 -1.5
  Dec 18, 2024 72   @ Santa Clara L 74-94 16%     5 - 4 -9.4 +0.2 -8.2
  Dec 21, 2024 189   @ San Jose St. L 76-78 43%    
  Jan 04, 2025 167   Jacksonville St. W 77-74 62%    
  Jan 09, 2025 131   @ Middle Tennessee L 75-80 32%    
  Jan 11, 2025 105   @ Western Kentucky L 78-86 23%    
  Jan 16, 2025 127   Sam Houston St. W 81-80 52%    
  Jan 18, 2025 101   Louisiana Tech L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 23, 2025 201   @ New Mexico St. L 75-76 45%    
  Jan 25, 2025 140   @ UTEP L 75-79 35%    
  Jan 30, 2025 81   Liberty L 71-75 35%    
  Feb 01, 2025 248   Florida International W 82-75 75%    
  Feb 06, 2025 105   Western Kentucky L 81-83 44%    
  Feb 08, 2025 131   Middle Tennessee W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 13, 2025 101   @ Louisiana Tech L 71-79 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 127   @ Sam Houston St. L 78-83 31%    
  Feb 20, 2025 140   UTEP W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 22, 2025 201   New Mexico St. W 78-73 66%    
  Feb 27, 2025 248   @ Florida International W 79-78 55%    
  Mar 02, 2025 81   @ Liberty L 68-78 18%    
  Mar 08, 2025 167   @ Jacksonville St. L 74-77 40%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.6 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.8 5.9 2.7 0.2 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.0 3.2 0.3 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.6 3.8 0.5 0.0 14.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.9 5.7 3.8 0.5 0.0 13.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 4.7 2.8 0.5 0.0 11.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.4 2.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.3 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.2 5.9 9.3 11.8 13.7 13.5 12.8 10.6 7.5 4.9 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 96.5% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 89.2% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 70.3% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.0
13-5 40.4% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 12.3% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 24.7% 24.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 17.1% 17.1% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.4% 15.9% 15.9% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.2
13-5 2.8% 13.7% 13.7% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.4
12-6 4.9% 10.4% 10.4% 12.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 4.4
11-7 7.5% 8.2% 8.2% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.9
10-8 10.6% 6.2% 6.2% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.9
9-9 12.8% 5.6% 5.6% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 12.1
8-10 13.5% 3.4% 3.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 13.1
7-11 13.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.5
6-12 11.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 11.6
5-13 9.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.3
4-14 5.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.9
3-15 3.2% 3.2
2-16 1.4% 1.4
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 95.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%