New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#116
Expected Predictive Rating+5.8#100
Pace63.2#328
Improvement-1.4#292

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#143
First Shot-1.1#209
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#77
Layup/Dunks-3.5#301
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.1#320
Freethrows+1.3#116
Improvement-1.5#297

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#96
First Shot+2.8#89
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#209
Layups/Dunks+3.1#72
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#152
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#123
Freethrows-2.8#322
Improvement+0.1#181
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.4% 19.3% 13.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 91.8% 94.8% 85.5%
.500 or above in Conference 87.0% 89.1% 82.6%
Conference Champion 23.3% 26.2% 17.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.6% 1.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round17.4% 19.3% 13.6%
Second Round2.5% 2.9% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Away) - 67.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 38 - 59 - 8
Quad 410 - 219 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 15 103 New Mexico W 76-68 57%     1 - 0 +9.6 +10.0 +0.0
  Fri, Nov 21 228 Samford W 81-72 83%     2 - 0 +2.0 +13.6 -10.5
  Tue, Nov 25 125 UC Irvine W 57-45 52%     3 - 0 +14.8 -8.4 +23.2
  Wed, Nov 26 334 Georgia St. W 77-58 90%     4 - 0 +8.5 -2.9 +10.3
  Tue, Dec 2 165 South Alabama L 75-77 65%     4 - 1 -2.7 +5.6 -8.4
  Sat, Dec 6 234 @Abilene Christian W 66-61 68%    
  Sat, Dec 13 91 Tulsa L 68-70 42%    
  Sun, Dec 21 133 Sam Houston St. W 74-70 66%    
  Fri, Jan 2 207 @Florida International W 72-69 61%    
  Sun, Jan 4 242 @Missouri St. W 67-62 67%    
  Thu, Jan 8 123 Western Kentucky W 74-71 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 138 Middle Tennessee W 73-68 66%    
  Thu, Jan 15 98 @Liberty L 66-71 33%    
  Sat, Jan 17 287 @Delaware W 72-65 74%    
  Thu, Jan 22 242 Missouri St. W 70-59 83%    
  Sat, Jan 24 207 Florida International W 75-66 80%    
  Wed, Jan 28 287 Delaware W 75-62 88%    
  Sat, Jan 31 162 @Kennesaw St. W 76-75 52%    
  Wed, Feb 4 188 @Louisiana Tech W 65-63 58%    
  Sat, Feb 7 241 @UTEP W 67-62 66%    
  Wed, Feb 11 98 Liberty W 69-68 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 238 @Jacksonville St. W 66-61 66%    
  Sat, Feb 21 241 UTEP W 70-59 82%    
  Thu, Feb 26 123 @Western Kentucky L 71-74 41%    
  Sat, Feb 28 138 @Middle Tennessee L 70-71 45%    
  Thu, Mar 5 238 Jacksonville St. W 69-58 81%    
  Sat, Mar 7 162 Kennesaw St. W 79-72 72%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.4 6.0 5.8 3.4 1.4 0.3 23.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.8 6.1 5.6 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.5 2.9 5.7 4.4 1.6 0.2 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.0 3.2 0.8 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 3.2 2.0 0.6 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.2 2.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.7 5.2 7.5 9.8 11.6 12.6 13.0 11.6 9.1 6.5 3.5 1.4 0.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 99.5% 1.4    1.4
18-2 98.3% 3.4    3.2 0.2
17-3 88.2% 5.8    4.7 1.1 0.0
16-4 65.8% 6.0    3.8 1.9 0.2 0.0
15-5 38.0% 4.4    1.9 1.9 0.6 0.1
14-6 12.8% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.3% 23.3 15.7 5.9 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 65.0% 56.3% 8.7% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 20.0%
19-1 1.4% 48.0% 46.6% 1.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 2.6%
18-2 3.5% 44.2% 44.2% 11.7 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.9
17-3 6.5% 36.1% 36.1% 12.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.4 4.2
16-4 9.1% 29.3% 29.3% 12.4 0.2 1.4 0.9 0.1 6.5
15-5 11.6% 24.0% 24.0% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 1.2 1.3 0.3 8.8 0.1%
14-6 13.0% 21.2% 21.2% 12.9 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 10.2
13-7 12.6% 14.9% 14.9% 13.1 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 10.7
12-8 11.6% 9.9% 9.9% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 10.5
11-9 9.8% 7.9% 7.9% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 9.0
10-10 7.5% 4.6% 4.6% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.1
9-11 5.2% 2.7% 2.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.1
8-12 3.7% 2.6% 2.6% 15.3 0.1 0.0 3.6
7-13 2.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.1
6-14 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 17.4% 17.4% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.7 6.4 6.1 2.3 0.5 0.1 82.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 7.4 13.8 34.5 13.8 17.2 13.8 6.9