New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#166
Expected Predictive Rating+0.2#165
Pace65.3#261
Improvement+1.5#115

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#222
First Shot-4.7#307
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#29
Layup/Dunks-6.8#352
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#45
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#216
Freethrows+0.6#143
Improvement-1.0#251

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#125
First Shot+3.5#75
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#314
Layups/Dunks+4.9#41
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#22
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#202
Freethrows-3.6#355
Improvement+2.5#52
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 6.5% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.7
.500 or above 31.4% 42.0% 17.5%
.500 or above in Conference 65.5% 78.2% 48.9%
Conference Champion 5.4% 7.9% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round5.3% 6.4% 3.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Home) - 56.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 42 - 6
Quad 36 - 68 - 12
Quad 45 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 292   @ Utah Tech W 75-63 67%     1 - 0 +7.4 +1.3 +6.4
  Nov 14, 2024 186   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 83-82 64%     2 - 0 -2.8 +3.2 -6.0
  Nov 20, 2024 80   @ Dayton L 53-74 18%     2 - 1 -11.2 -9.0 -5.5
  Nov 23, 2024 101   @ UNLV L 65-72 25%     2 - 2 +0.1 -0.5 +0.2
  Nov 29, 2024 217   Pepperdine L 70-82 62%     2 - 3 -15.2 -7.9 -6.6
  Nov 30, 2024 312   Bowling Green L 60-61 79%     2 - 4 -9.6 -14.9 +5.3
  Dec 04, 2024 242   Abilene Christian L 70-78 76%     2 - 5 -15.3 +1.3 -17.1
  Dec 07, 2024 40   @ New Mexico W 89-83 OT 10%     3 - 5 +20.4 +15.6 +4.2
  Dec 12, 2024 30   @ Texas L 67-91 7%     3 - 6 -7.4 +2.7 -10.2
  Dec 16, 2024 268   Southern Utah W 72-69 79%     4 - 6 -5.5 -5.8 +0.3
  Jan 02, 2025 181   Sam Houston St. W 75-71 64%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +0.4 +4.1 -3.4
  Jan 04, 2025 113   Louisiana Tech W 78-48 47%     6 - 6 2 - 0 +30.7 +17.4 +17.9
  Jan 11, 2025 143   @ UTEP W 85-57 36%     7 - 6 3 - 0 +31.7 +23.7 +10.8
  Jan 16, 2025 243   @ Florida International W 59-52 59%     8 - 6 4 - 0 +4.6 -4.7 +10.2
  Jan 18, 2025 90   @ Liberty L 60-68 21%     8 - 7 4 - 1 +0.7 -3.7 +3.9
  Jan 23, 2025 170   Kennesaw St. L 56-69 60%     8 - 8 4 - 2 -15.6 -15.7 -0.3
  Jan 25, 2025 130   Jacksonville St. L 59-65 53%     8 - 9 4 - 3 -6.7 -12.1 +5.1
  Jan 30, 2025 120   @ Middle Tennessee W 61-57 32%     9 - 9 5 - 3 +8.8 -3.2 +12.4
  Feb 01, 2025 115   @ Western Kentucky L 69-101 30%     9 - 10 5 - 4 -26.6 +1.1 -27.4
  Feb 08, 2025 143   UTEP W 69-68 57%    
  Feb 13, 2025 90   Liberty L 63-67 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 243   Florida International W 72-65 77%    
  Feb 20, 2025 130   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-69 33%    
  Feb 22, 2025 170   @ Kennesaw St. L 71-73 40%    
  Feb 27, 2025 120   Middle Tennessee W 69-68 52%    
  Mar 01, 2025 115   Western Kentucky L 72-73 50%    
  Mar 06, 2025 113   @ Louisiana Tech L 63-69 28%    
  Mar 08, 2025 181   @ Sam Houston St. L 70-71 44%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.7 2.9 1.5 0.3 5.4 1st
2nd 0.5 4.5 2.7 0.1 7.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 4.0 6.1 0.3 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 9.2 1.8 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.4 7.0 6.3 0.1 13.7 5th
6th 0.1 4.0 10.4 1.2 15.8 6th
7th 0.2 2.8 10.1 4.3 0.1 17.4 7th
8th 0.2 2.8 7.2 5.1 0.4 15.7 8th
9th 0.3 0.8 0.5 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.5 3.8 10.5 19.7 23.3 21.2 13.2 5.9 1.6 0.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.3    0.3
13-5 91.3% 1.5    0.9 0.5 0.1
12-6 48.6% 2.9    0.5 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0
11-7 5.4% 0.7    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 1.8 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.3% 15.6% 15.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 1.6% 11.8% 11.8% 12.5 0.1 0.1 1.4
12-6 5.9% 9.8% 9.8% 13.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 5.3
11-7 13.2% 9.1% 9.1% 13.7 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 12.0
10-8 21.2% 6.1% 6.1% 14.1 0.2 0.7 0.4 19.9
9-9 23.3% 5.6% 5.6% 15.0 0.1 1.2 0.1 22.0
8-10 19.7% 3.0% 3.0% 15.6 0.3 0.4 19.1
7-11 10.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.4
6-12 3.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.7
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 14.3 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.9 0.6 94.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%