IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.1	#156
Expected Predictive Rating	-0.4	#172

Pace	62.5	#336
Improvement	+2.8	#44

Offense
Total Offense	-0.7	#190

First Shot	+1.0	#150
After Offensive Rebound	-1.7	#285

Layup/Dunks	+1.7	#123
2 Pt Jumpshots	-2.4	#311
3 Pt Jumpshots	+1.9	#117
Freethrows	-0.3	#198

Improvement	+1.5	#83

Defense
Total Defense	+0.8	#143

First Shot	+0.1	#171
After Offensive Rebounds	+0.7	#116

Layups/Dunks	+10.7	#4
2 Pt Jumpshots	+3.6	#1
3 Pt Jumpshots	-16.5	#364
Freethrows	+2.3	#44

Improvement	+1.3	#78

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	10.2%	11.9%	7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.8	13.7	14.1

.500 or above	91.7%	95.6%	85.2%
.500 or above in Conference	87.7%	93.0%	78.7%
Conference Champion	14.4%	18.5%	7.3%
Last Place in Conference	0.3%	0.1%	0.6%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	10.2%	11.9%	7.3%
Second Round	0.8%	1.1%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Away) - 62.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	4 - 3	5 - 7
Quad 4	14 - 5	18 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	237	Central Michigan	L	70-74	76%	0 - 1			-11.2	-2.1	-9.2
Nov 08, 2024	243	@ Nicholls St.	W	70-64	55%	1 - 1			+4.7	+2.9	+2.3
Nov 12, 2024	35	@ Mississippi	L	54-64	9%	1 - 2			+5.2	-8.3	+12.8
Nov 16, 2024	231	Mercer	W	75-66	75%	2 - 2			+2.2	-0.3	+2.6
Nov 25, 2024	301	Incarnate Word	W	84-63	84%	3 - 2			+10.5	+9.2	+2.8
Nov 26, 2024	331	Western Illinois	L	63-64	89%	3 - 3			-14.1	-5.5	-8.8
Nov 29, 2024	337	Alcorn St.	W	74-65 OT	90%	4 - 3			-5.1	-1.5	-3.0
Dec 08, 2024	149	Jacksonville St.	W	76-74	61%	5 - 3			-0.7	+4.8	-5.4
Dec 15, 2024	355	@ Texas A&M - Commerce	W	81-72	83%	6 - 3			-0.9	+7.7	-8.3
Dec 16, 2024	66	@ TCU	L	49-58	15%	6 - 4			+2.1	-6.8	+7.5
Dec 21, 2024	131	James Madison	W	77-49	56%	7 - 4	1 - 0		+26.5	+10.4	+19.0
Jan 02, 2025	275	@ Georgia St.	W	70-67	63%
Jan 04, 2025	249	@ Georgia Southern	W	72-70	56%
Jan 09, 2025	104	Arkansas St.	L	69-70	44%
Jan 11, 2025	312	Old Dominion	W	75-64	85%
Jan 15, 2025	284	Southern Miss	W	72-62	82%
Jan 18, 2025	119	Troy	W	68-67	52%
Jan 23, 2025	333	@ Louisiana Monroe	W	70-62	76%
Jan 25, 2025	119	@ Troy	L	64-70	30%
Jan 30, 2025	333	Louisiana Monroe	W	73-59	89%
Feb 01, 2025	283	@ Louisiana	W	70-66	64%
Feb 05, 2025	273	@ Coastal Carolina	W	66-63	63%
Feb 13, 2025	211	Marshall	W	73-67	69%
Feb 15, 2025	140	Texas St.	W	68-66	57%
Feb 19, 2025	104	@ Arkansas St.	L	66-73	25%
Feb 22, 2025	140	@ Texas St.	L	65-69	36%
Feb 26, 2025	284	@ Southern Miss	W	69-65	64%
Feb 28, 2025	283	Louisiana	W	73-63	81%
Projected Record						17 - 11	11 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.2	1.9	4.3	4.7	2.3	0.8	0.1		14.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	2.6	6.4	4.6	1.3	0.1				15.3	2nd
3rd											0.2	2.6	6.9	4.8	0.8	0.0					15.3	3rd
4th										0.1	1.6	6.4	5.1	0.8	0.1						14.0	4th
5th									0.0	0.8	4.8	5.4	1.0	0.1							12.1	5th
6th									0.3	3.3	4.6	1.3	0.1								9.6	6th
7th								0.1	1.4	3.8	1.5	0.1									6.9	7th
8th							0.0	0.5	2.5	1.5	0.2										4.7	8th
9th						0.0	0.1	1.3	1.7	0.3											3.4	9th
10th						0.0	0.4	1.2	0.4	0.0											2.0	10th
11th						0.2	0.6	0.5	0.0												1.2	11th
12th					0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0												0.7	12th
13th				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1														0.4	13th
14th			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.1	14th

Total			0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.5	3.7	6.3	9.9	12.9	16.0	15.8	14.0	9.8	5.9	2.4	0.8	0.1			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
17-1	100.0%	0.8		0.8	0.0
16-2	95.3%	2.3		2.0	0.3
15-3	78.6%	4.7		3.0	1.4	0.2	0.0
14-4	44.2%	4.3		1.5	2.0	0.8	0.1	0.0
13-5	13.9%	1.9		0.2	0.7	0.6	0.3	0.0
12-6	1.2%	0.2			0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	14.4%	14.4		7.7	4.5	1.7	0.4	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		34.5%	34.5%		11.6											0.0		0.0					0.1
17-1	0.8%		34.2%	34.2%		12.2												0.0	0.2	0.1				0.5
16-2	2.4%		27.2%	27.2%		12.6												0.0	0.3	0.3	0.1			1.8
15-3	5.9%		21.8%	21.8%		13.1												0.0	0.2	0.8	0.3	0.0		4.7
14-4	9.8%		18.9%	18.9%		13.6													0.1	0.8	0.9	0.1		8.0
13-5	14.0%		15.4%	15.4%		13.8													0.0	0.6	1.3	0.3	0.0	11.8
12-6	15.8%		11.2%	11.2%		14.2														0.3	0.9	0.6	0.0	14.0
11-7	16.0%		7.1%	7.1%		14.5														0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1	14.9
10-8	12.9%		4.3%	4.3%		14.7														0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	12.4
9-9	9.9%		2.5%	2.5%		14.8															0.1	0.2	0.0	9.6
8-10	6.3%		2.1%	2.1%		15.4															0.0	0.1	0.1	6.2
7-11	3.7%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.1	3.6
6-12	1.5%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	1.5
5-13	0.6%																							0.6
4-14	0.2%																							0.2
3-15	0.0%																							0.0
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17
0-18

Total	100%		10.2%	10.2%	0.0%	13.8											0.0	0.0	0.9	2.8	4.1	2.1	0.3	89.8		0.0%