South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.0 191
Expected Predictive Rating +1.2 142
Pace 63.3 323
Improvement +3.1 62

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #252 D+ D+ A- C- B-
Defense C #139 C+ D+ C+ A D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% 9 54% 275 +3.5 73
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 200 39% 134 -0.2 189
Three Pointers 33% 334 29% 346 -6.7 348
1st FG Attempt 0.95 285 -3.4 283
Second Chance 23.4% 345 1.18 28 0.28 261
Turnovers 13.5% 18
Freethrows 0.32 150 65% 357 0.21 238
Total Offense -2.9 252

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 21% 365 64% 324 +8.7 6
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% 365 39% 222 +4.9 1
Three Pointers 71% 1 31% 70 -12.6 365
1st FG Attempt 1.00 140 +1.0 139
Second Chance 32.4% 259 1.10 286 0.35 288
Turnovers 17.5% 141
Freethrows 0.20 3 75% 309 0.15 7
Total Defense +0.9 139

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.8 73 +0.4 251
Shot Type Accuracy -4.1 315 -1.4 119
Possession Length 17.5 203 18.3 323
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 245 0.15 113
Improvement -0.2 #189 +3.2 #33

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9% 12% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 97% 100% 95%
Conference Champion 12% 19% 4%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round9% 12% 6%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Away) - 48.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 36 - 56 - 8
Quad 414 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 165 @Toledo W 76 - 74 33% +9  99% 1 - 0 C+ +5 B +6 B+ B B- C -2 F C+ B-
 Thu, Nov 6 351 Alcorn St. W 76 - 70 90% -3  22% 2 - 0 D -10 F -10 D C- D- C -0 F A+ A
 Thu, Nov 13 296 Central Michigan W 66 - 64 71% +3  90% 3 - 0 D+ -6 D -6 F B+ B+ C+ +0 B+ F+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 364 Coppin St. W 72 - 62 94% +5  81% 4 - 0 D -10 F+ -8 F F B+ C -1 A- F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 184 @Jacksonville St. W 71 - 65 37% -6  13% 5 - 0 B- +7 C+ +2 C C- A+ B +6 C+ C+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 118 @UAB L 72 - 80 23% -5  8% 5 - 1 C- -2 B +7 C+ D A+ F+ -10 F C- B
 Sun, Nov 30 350 @Texas San Antonio W 82 - 58 77% +14  97% 6 - 1 A- +14 C +1 C- C- C A+ +13 A C D-
 Tue, Dec 2 167 New Mexico St. W 77 - 75 44% -1  35% 7 - 1 C +2 B- +4 D C A C- -3 C C- A
 Fri, Dec 5 126 @East Tennessee St. L 65 - 91 25% -5  42% 7 - 2 F -21 D- -7 C F A- F -15 C+ F F+
 Sun, Dec 14 144 North Texas L 57 - 58 50% -4  14% 7 - 3 C- -3 F+ -9 F B+ A+ B+ +6 A+ F A-
 Wed, Dec 17 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 92 2OT 82% -7  24% 8 - 3 1 - 0 D+ -8 D -4 D+ C+ F+ D+ -4 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 234 @Texas St. L 65 - 67 46% +6  90% 8 - 4 1 - 1 C- -3 D -4 F+ D+ B- C+ +1 A- F C-
 Wed, Dec 31 290 @Louisiana W 63 - 58 60% +2  74% 9 - 4 2 - 1 C +1 C+ +3 D C+ D C -1 C+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 135 @Troy L 49 - 59 26% -5  16% 9 - 5 2 - 2 D+ -5 F -15 F D+ C+ A- +8 A B- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 274 Georgia Southern W 87 - 71 76% +9  95% 10 - 5 3 - 2 B- +7 C+ +2 A+ F C- B- +4 B C+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 141 Arkansas St. W 91 - 87 OT 49% +0  38% 11 - 5 4 - 2 C+ +2 C +1 D+ D A+ C+ +1 C+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 17 290 Louisiana L 56 - 59 79% -1  34% 11 - 6 4 - 3 D- -13 F -11 F+ B- A- C- -3 C- C- F
 Thu, Jan 22 222 @James Madison W 90 - 83 43% +2  49% 12 - 6 5 - 3 B- +7 B +6 F+ A+ A+ C +0 F+ D+ A
 Thu, Jan 29 238 Coastal Carolina W 53 - 48 70% +0  50% 13 - 6 6 - 3 C- -2 F -15 F+ F+ A+ A+ +14 A A- B
 Sat, Jan 31 276 Georgia St. W 69 - 67 76% +4  79% 14 - 6 7 - 3 D+ -7 C+ +2 B D A+ D- -9 D- F C
 Wed, Feb 4 161 @Appalachian St. L 57 - 65 32% -3  12% 14 - 7 7 - 4 D+ -5 D+ -3 C- F A+ D+ -4 B- D- F
 Sat, Feb 7 202 Buffalo W 81 - 69 64% +18  96% 15 - 7 B- +6 C +1 B D+ B+ B+ +6 B A- B+
 Thu, Feb 12 241 @Southern Miss L 68 - 69 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 141 @Arkansas St. L 70 - 76 29%
 Mon, Feb 16 164 @Marshall L 69 - 74 34%
 Thu, Feb 19 234 Texas St. W 69 - 64 69%
 Sat, Feb 21 135 Troy L 68 - 69 47%
 Wed, Feb 25 356 Louisiana Monroe W 80 - 64 93%
 Fri, Feb 27 241 Southern Miss W 71 - 65 71%
Totals 19 - 10 11 - 7 -2 D+ -3 D+ D+ A- C +1 C+ D+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ C+ F+ D 48% 19% 33% B- D+ D- B+ D+ A- C+ F C- C D C- B C+ 21% 8% 71% D+ C+ D+ D+ D+ C+ A D A
1.04 54% 39% 29% -4 +1 0.95 23% 1.2 .28 13% .32 65% .21 1.07 64% 39% 31% -1 0 1.00 32% 1.1 .35 18% .20 75% .24
Nov
3		 Toledo B B+ A C+ B 55% 12% 33% B+ B+ C B+ B B- C F F C F+ A+ F F 24% 14% 61% D+ F A+ F C+ B- A+ C- A+
1.18 68% 50% 35% +8 +2 1.22 35% 1.1 .39 17% .24 38% .09 1.15 67% 14% 47% +10 0 1.22 19% 1.3 .26 17% .17 78% .13
Nov
6		 Alcorn St. F B- F B- D 59% 17% 24% C+ D F A+ C- D- A+ F B C F C D+ F 25% 6% 69% F F B- A+ A+ A B- F C-
1.06 67% 13% 36% +2 +2 1.09 29% 1.5 .43 21% .47 59% .28 0.97 77% 33% 37% +8 +1 1.20 23% 0.1 .03 25% .20 82% .17
Nov
13		 Central Michigan D F+ D+ F F 57% 7% 37% A F D+ A+ B+ B+ A D- B C+ A+ A+ B A 15% 8% 77% D B+ F B F+ C A A+ A
1.07 50% 33% 18% -14 +3 0.80 32% 1.6 .51 13% .43 65% .28 1.03 43% 25% 30% -8 0 0.85 41% 1.0 .41 18% .20 60% .12
Nov
15		 Coppin St. F+ D F C F 43% 15% 42% B- F C F F B+ F D+ F C D+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 2% 60% F A- B F F D- C+ F C-
1.08 57% 25% 36% -1 +1 1.02 36% 0.8 .28 14% .26 73% .19 0.93 58% 0% 17% -16 +2 0.74 26% 1.9 .49 20% .32 76% .24
Nov
19		 Jacksonville St. C+ D+ A+ F C- 57% 19% 23% B C F A+ C- A+ A F C+ B A- B- C- C+ 33% 5% 62% C C+ B C- C+ C A+ A+ A+
1.07 52% 56% 27% -3 +2 1.00 18% 1.5 .27 11% .41 63% .25 0.98 44% 33% 35% -3 +2 0.98 27% 1.0 .27 18% .07 25% .02
Nov
21		 UAB B B D C C+ 42% 21% 38% C+ C+ F+ B- D A+ A+ F A F+ F F C+ F 30% 15% 55% C- F F B+ C- B F+ A C-
1.13 65% 30% 33% +1 0 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 5% .44 59% .26 1.25 79% 57% 31% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.9 .37 14% .38 62% .24
Nov
30		 Texas San Antonio C F A+ B+ C- 43% 23% 34% D+ C- B F+ C- C B A+ A A+ A A+ A A 11% 11% 77% B- A D+ B C D- A+ F A+
1.16 43% 58% 39% +1 0 1.04 42% 0.9 .39 15% .32 84% .27 0.82 43% 14% 25% -15 -1 0.71 32% 0.8 .25 14% .03 100% .03
Dec
2		 New Mexico St. B- D- F C D- 49% 22% 29% B D F A+ C A A+ B+ A+ C- D F A+ C 20% 19% 61% C- C F A C- A B D- C+
1.16 50% 22% 33% -8 +1 0.88 18% 2.0 .36 11% .66 82% .54 1.13 64% 80% 24% 0 -1 1.00 45% 0.7 .33 20% .24 77% .19
Dec
5		 East Tennessee St. D- F F A+ C- 46% 8% 46% B+ C F F F A- C- F F+ F C A+ B- B- 36% 7% 57% D- C+ F F F F+ A+ C- A+
0.95 48% 25% 43% +1 +2 1.08 17% 0.5 .08 16% .28 56% .16 1.33 59% 25% 31% -3 +2 1.00 39% 1.7 .66 12% .15 78% .12
Dec
14		 North Texas F+ F+ D+ F F 67% 14% 19% A+ F D+ A+ B+ A+ B- D+ C+ B+ C- F A+ A+ 20% 4% 76% C A+ B- F F A- C+ C+ C+
0.89 46% 33% 0% -18 +3 0.71 29% 1.4 .42 17% .41 68% .28 0.91 60% 50% 19% -16 +1 0.71 31% 1.4 .43 22% .32 69% .22
Dec
17		 Louisiana Monroe D A+ A F D+ 38% 16% 46% C- D+ F A+ C+ F+ C+ A B D+ F A+ F F 12% 15% 73% B F D- F F A+ C- F D-
1.10 78% 50% 25% +3 0 1.10 20% 2.1 .43 19% .27 79% .21 1.05 71% 22% 40% +5 -1 1.10 28% 1.8 .50 27% .33 81% .27
Dec
20		 Texas St. D D+ A+ F F 56% 13% 31% B+ F+ F A D+ B- A- F C+ C+ B- D A+ A+ 38% 16% 47% F+ A- F D- F C- F F F
0.99 56% 50% 20% -6 +2 0.94 19% 1.2 .23 17% .40 64% .26 1.02 53% 43% 19% -12 +1 0.80 46% 1.0 .46 18% .41 91% .37
Dec
31		 Louisiana C+ C+ D+ D- D 41% 16% 43% C- D B C- C+ D A- A+ A+ C A+ D- C+ C+ 9% 20% 70% C- C+ F+ F F D- A D+ A-
1.13 60% 33% 31% -2 +1 1.00 37% 1.0 .37 20% .45 85% .38 1.04 25% 44% 32% -3 -2 0.91 32% 1.1 .35 14% .15 71% .10
Jan
3		 Troy F F F+ F F 43% 14% 43% B+ F C D- D+ C+ A+ D A+ A- A+ B B A 20% 6% 73% B A D A B- C- A+ A+ A+
0.84 44% 33% 17% -18 +1 0.69 31% 0.9 .28 17% .43 67% .29 1.01 40% 33% 31% -8 +1 0.88 37% 0.8 .29 15% .14 57% .08
Jan
10		 Georgia Southern C+ B- A A+ A+ 53% 27% 20% D A+ D- F F C- A- F C B- C A+ A- B+ 24% 2% 75% C- B B D C+ D+ C- B C
1.20 63% 50% 60% +14 0 1.29 30% 0.8 .22 19% .43 64% .27 0.98 54% 0% 27% -10 +1 0.85 24% 1.2 .28 14% .35 68% .24
Jan
15		 Arkansas St. C C A+ F D- 51% 9% 40% A+ D+ F A+ D A+ B+ C- B C+ D- B- B+ C+ 25% 5% 69% C- C+ C C- C- B+ A D- B+
1.11 61% 67% 19% -5 +2 0.97 15% 1.5 .22 6% .39 70% .27 1.06 67% 33% 29% -3 +1 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 23% .24 80% .19
Jan
17		 Louisiana F D F B F+ 48% 23% 30% D+ F+ C- B+ B- A- F F F C- C- A+ C C 14% 8% 78% F C- A+ F C- F A+ A+ A+
0.98 52% 20% 38% -5 0 0.93 31% 1.2 .38 14% .20 30% .06 1.03 57% 25% 33% -2 0 0.98 16% 1.6 .25 12% .08 50% .04
Jan
22		 James Madison B D- D+ F F 49% 11% 40% A- F+ D- A+ A+ A+ A+ F A C C A+ F+ F+ 14% 2% 84% C- F+ A+ F D+ A F F+ F
1.19 48% 33% 27% -9 +2 0.87 24% 2.1 .51 4% .54 62% .33 1.10 57% 0% 39% +6 +1 1.14 20% 1.7 .34 22% .43 76% .32
Jan
29		 Coastal Carolina F F A+ D- F 40% 26% 34% B F+ F A+ F+ A+ F F F A+ B B A+ A+ 16% 6% 78% F A D+ A+ A- B A+ A+ A+
0.88 30% 54% 29% -9 -1 0.82 12% 1.5 .18 7% .18 60% .11 0.80 50% 33% 25% -12 0 0.78 28% 0.5 .14 18% .14 57% .08
Jan
31		 Georgia St. C+ A A+ F B 51% 19% 30% B- B D+ D D A+ B F D D- D A D+ D- 10% 17% 73% C D- F C+ F C C+ A+ B+
1.15 71% 56% 21% +4 +1 1.13 30% 0.9 .27 8% .34 53% .18 1.12 60% 25% 34% -2 -2 0.96 40% 1.0 .40 17% .30 67% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Appalachian St. D+ C F A- C 33% 29% 38% F+ C- F F F A+ D+ C- D+ D+ D+ F A B 18% 4% 78% C- B- C+ F D- F D+ D D
0.98 56% 21% 39% -3 -1 0.94 17% 0.5 .08 9% .24 69% .17 1.11 63% 100% 26% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.3 .37 10% .34 67% .23
Feb
7		 Buffalo C F+ A+ A+ B- 49% 10% 41% B+ B F A+ D+ B+ A+ F B+ B+ C- A C- C+ 9% 18% 74% A+ B B- A+ A- B+ A+ A A+
1.16 50% 80% 45% +7 +2 1.20 17% 1.6 .28 14% .40 63% .25 0.99 60% 30% 36% +1 -2 1.00 24% 0.8 .20 20% .11 67% .07



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 3.0 7.1 1.6 11.7 1st
2nd 1.3 9.6 2.3 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 9.0 8.5 0.1 17.8 3rd
4th 2.9 13.0 1.0 16.9 4th
5th 0.4 10.4 5.4 16.2 5th
6th 2.9 8.5 0.4 11.8 6th
7th 0.3 5.1 1.9 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.7 2.2 0.1 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 0.4 1.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.2 2.5 11.1 24.0 29.1 22.1 9.4 1.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 1.6    1.4 0.3
13-5 75.1% 7.1    1.7 3.7 1.5 0.2
12-6 13.4% 3.0    0.1 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 3.1 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.6% 23.2% 23.2% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.3
13-5 9.4% 22.9% 22.9% 14.1 0.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 7.3
12-6 22.1% 15.3% 15.3% 14.3 0.3 1.8 1.2 0.1 18.7
11-7 29.1% 7.4% 7.4% 14.5 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 27.0
10-8 24.0% 2.4% 2.4% 14.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 23.5
9-9 11.1% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.9
8-10 2.5% 2.5
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 14.3 91.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.2 13.2 57.9 28.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%