South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.0 #191
Expected Predictive Rating +0.9 #149
Pace 64.1 #310
Improvement +1.1 #126

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #236 D- C- A- C- B
Defense #153 C D C A+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #8 1.08 #270 +3.7 #63
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #196 0.76 #166 -0.4 #193
Three Pointers 33% #333 0.80 #358 -7.9 #356
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #304 -4.5 #304
Freethrows 18.0 #152 66% #350 11.8 #227
Second Chance 24.7% #327 1.20 #27 0.30 #225
Turnovers 13.5% #27
Total Offense -2.4 #236

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 22% #364 1.30 #329 +8.2 #6
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #365 0.83 #296 +4.7 #1
Three Pointers 71% #1 0.95 #99 -13.0 #365
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #184 -0.1 #184
Freethrows 10.8 #4 78% #351 8.4 #5
Second Chance 32.7% #269 1.14 #291 0.37 #303
Turnovers 17.0% #146
Total Defense +0.4 #153

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #74 1.0% #256
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.4% #334 -0.8% #168
Possession Length 17.6 #205 18.4 #321
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #217 0.15 #113
Improvement -0.7 #223 +1.8 #74

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.7% 11.5% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.3
.500 or above 99.0% 99.9% 98.5%
.500 or above in Conference 92.0% 97.9% 89.0%
Conference Champion 3.7% 7.8% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.7% 11.5% 5.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Away) - 33.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 36 - 56 - 8
Quad 413 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 166 @Toledo W 76 - 74 33% +9  1 - 0 +4 +8 A- B- C -4 F B B
 Thu, Nov 6 347 Alcorn St. W 76 - 70 89% -3  2 - 0 -9 -6 D C F -3 F A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 13 322 Central Michigan W 66 - 64 78% +3  3 - 0 -8 -3 F B- B+ -5 B F C
 Sat, Nov 15 364 Coppin St. W 72 - 62 94% +5  4 - 0 -10 -6 F F B -3 A F F
 Wed, Nov 19 216 @Jacksonville St. W 71 - 65 43% -6  5 - 0 +6 +3 C- C- A+ +3 C B- B-
 Fri, Nov 21 117 @UAB L 72 - 80 23% -5  5 - 1 -2 +9 C+ D- A+ -12 F C B
 Sun, Nov 30 345 @Texas San Antonio W 82 - 58 75% +14  6 - 1 +15 +5 C- C C +10 A+ C F
 Tue, Dec 2 133 New Mexico St. W 77 - 75 36% -1  7 - 1 +4 +8 D- C A+ -4 C+ C A+
 Fri, Dec 5 135 @East Tennessee St. L 65 - 91 27% -5  7 - 2 -21 -4 C F A -18 C F F
 Sun, Dec 14 127 North Texas L 57 - 58 46% -4  7 - 3 -2 -6 F A- A+ +4 A+ F A-
 Wed, Dec 17 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 96 - 92 2OT 84% -7  8 - 3 1 - 0 -9 -3 D C F -7 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 263 @Texas St. L 65 - 67 52% +6  8 - 4 1 - 1 -5 -3 F D B -2 A F C
 Wed, Dec 31 312 @Louisiana W 63 - 58 65% +2  9 - 4 2 - 1 -1 +6 D- B- D- -6 C F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 112 @Troy L 49 - 59 21% -5  9 - 5 2 - 2 -4 -12 F D C+ +6 A+ B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 251 Georgia Southern W 87 - 71 72% +9  10 - 5 3 - 2 +8 +6 A+ F C +2 B+ B- D
 Thu, Jan 15 145 Arkansas St. W 91 - 87 OT 50% +0  11 - 5 4 - 2 +2 +3 D D- A+ -2 C C A
 Sat, Jan 17 312 Louisiana L 56 - 59 83% -1  11 - 6 4 - 3 -15 -8 F B- A -8 D D+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 231 @James Madison W 90 - 83 46% +2  12 - 6 5 - 3 +6 +8 F A+ A+ -2 F D A+
 Sat, Jan 24 163 @Marshall L 70 - 75 34%
 Thu, Jan 29 252 Coastal Carolina W 72 - 66 71%
 Sat, Jan 31 273 Georgia St. W 72 - 65 75%
 Wed, Feb 4 206 @Appalachian St. L 64 - 66 42%
 Sat, Feb 7 201 Buffalo W 74 - 70 63%
 Thu, Feb 12 244 @Southern Miss L 69 - 70 48%
 Sat, Feb 14 145 @Arkansas St. L 73 - 79 29%
 Thu, Feb 19 263 Texas St. W 71 - 64 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 112 Troy L 69 - 71 41%
 Wed, Feb 25 361 Louisiana Monroe W 82 - 65 94%
 Fri, Feb 27 244 Southern Miss W 72 - 66 69%
Totals 18 - 11 11 - 7 -2 -2 D- C- A- +0 C D C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.7 0.4 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 6.0 6.3 1.7 0.1 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.8 8.7 10.2 2.4 0.1 22.2 3rd
4th 0.1 5.5 10.7 2.3 0.1 18.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 9.1 3.0 0.1 13.2 5th
6th 0.0 4.0 5.3 0.2 9.6 6th
7th 0.4 5.1 1.0 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.8 2.9 0.1 4.9 8th
9th 0.2 2.4 0.5 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.7 6.1 13.8 21.8 23.6 18.9 10.0 3.4 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 86.3% 0.4    0.3 0.1
14-4 48.8% 1.7    0.7 0.8 0.2
13-5 12.8% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1
12-6 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 1.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.5% 28.4% 28.4% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-4 3.4% 25.4% 25.4% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 2.6
13-5 10.0% 20.2% 20.2% 14.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 8.0
12-6 18.9% 12.0% 12.0% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.0 16.6
11-7 23.6% 6.8% 6.8% 14.4 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 22.0
10-8 21.8% 2.4% 2.4% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 21.2
9-9 13.8% 1.6% 1.6% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.6
8-10 6.1% 0.7% 0.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 6.0
7-11 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.7
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 14.2 92.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%