Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
117 Troy 24.0%   13   1 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 13 - 5 +2.8      +1.3 120 +1.6 115 68.4 191 +17.3 4 0.0 1
134 Arkansas St. 17.0%   1 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 6 +1.4      +1.1 130 +0.3 157 73.5 61 +16.0 7 0.0 1
138 James Madison 15.3%   0 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 6 +1.1      +1.7 112 -0.6 184 63.3 314 -4.5 315 0.0 1
155 South Alabama 12.1%   1 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 11 - 7 -0.2      -0.7 182 +0.5 148 60.3 354 +13.8 9 0.0 1
168 Marshall 10.1%   1 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 -0.7      -1.7 219 +0.9 132 72.5 76 +14.1 8 0.0 1
205 Old Dominion 6.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 16 10 - 8 -2.4      -0.7 183 -1.7 219 65.6 260 -6.5 327 0.0 1
240 Appalachian St. 3.6%   0 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 9 -4.3      -4.0 297 -0.3 176 60.1 357 -15.8 355 0.0 1
243 Georgia Southern 3.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -4.4      -1.7 218 -2.7 266 72.7 73 0.0 121 0.0 1
248 Louisiana 2.8%   0 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 10 -4.7      -2.5 237 -2.3 249 65.8 257 -13.5 350 0.0 1
260 Texas St. 2.4%   0 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 16 8 - 10 -5.3      -3.2 265 -2.1 242 65.5 263 -10.0 336 0.0 1
282 Coastal Carolina 1.5%   0 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -6.4      -2.9 249 -3.5 297 66.9 228 -16.3 357 0.0 1
297 Southern Miss 1.1%   0 - 1 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 11 -7.4      -3.0 255 -4.4 317 74.7 42 -19.0 362 0.0 1
311 Georgia St. 0.7%   0 - 1 0 - 0 8 - 20 6 - 12 -8.3      -4.8 313 -3.5 296 71.8 88 -15.0 353 0.0 1
357 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   0 - 1 0 - 0 6 - 22 4 - 14 -13.4      -6.5 346 -6.9 357 69.1 162 -17.7 360 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Troy 3.3 33.2 18.2 13.2 9.9 7.1 5.7 4.2 3.0 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1
Arkansas St. 3.9 23.4 17.0 14.1 11.1 8.8 7.1 5.5 4.3 3.1 2.3 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.3
James Madison 4.3 19.2 16.4 13.5 11.4 9.2 7.6 6.2 4.7 4.1 2.9 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.3
South Alabama 4.9 14.5 13.3 12.6 12.0 10.5 9.0 7.6 6.1 4.8 3.7 2.9 1.6 1.0 0.4
Marshall 5.2 11.8 12.9 11.9 11.2 10.0 9.4 8.2 6.8 5.5 4.3 3.5 2.6 1.5 0.5
Old Dominion 6.2 7.7 9.0 9.7 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.2 8.4 7.1 6.5 5.2 4.2 2.7 1.1
Appalachian St. 7.4 3.9 5.7 7.3 7.5 8.5 9.3 9.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 7.6 6.6 5.2 2.5
Georgia Southern 7.6 4.3 5.5 6.4 7.2 7.9 8.1 8.8 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.2 7.4 6.3 3.2
Louisiana 7.6 3.1 4.6 6.0 7.0 8.3 9.0 9.9 10.0 10.5 9.1 8.1 6.6 5.0 2.9
Texas St. 8.2 2.6 3.7 4.8 5.9 6.7 8.1 8.9 9.5 10.0 10.5 9.7 8.8 6.8 4.1
Coastal Carolina 8.7 1.8 3.0 4.1 5.2 6.3 7.5 8.0 8.9 9.5 10.3 10.5 10.1 9.2 5.5
Southern Miss 9.5 1.2 2.0 2.8 3.6 4.4 5.8 7.4 8.2 9.4 10.6 12.0 12.2 11.9 8.6
Georgia St. 10.0 0.6 1.5 1.9 2.8 3.8 4.7 5.8 7.2 8.7 10.7 12.0 14.0 15.4 11.0
Louisiana Monroe 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.7 3.9 6.0 9.2 13.6 21.9 38.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Troy 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.4 5.1 7.7 9.6 12.3 13.5 13.8 12.7 9.8 5.8 2.1
Arkansas St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.0 3.2 5.2 7.0 9.1 11.8 13.0 13.4 12.2 10.1 6.6 3.6 1.2
James Madison 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.6 3.9 6.1 7.8 10.1 11.8 13.2 12.9 11.2 8.4 6.0 2.8 0.7
South Alabama 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.2 5.1 7.5 9.8 11.3 13.2 13.0 11.2 9.8 6.8 3.9 1.6 0.4
Marshall 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.3 5.9 8.2 10.3 12.0 12.3 12.2 10.9 8.5 5.6 3.2 1.4 0.3
Old Dominion 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.0 6.4 8.4 10.5 11.7 11.8 11.5 10.2 8.3 5.7 3.9 1.9 0.8 0.1
Appalachian St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.6 4.7 7.0 8.9 10.7 11.7 11.9 10.8 10.1 7.7 5.4 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.0
Georgia Southern 8 - 10 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.7 5.3 7.6 9.6 10.5 11.2 11.1 10.2 8.8 7.1 5.4 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1
Louisiana 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.9 4.8 7.1 9.5 11.7 13.2 12.3 10.9 9.5 6.9 4.7 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
Texas St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.8 2.2 4.2 6.3 8.8 11.1 12.6 12.0 11.3 9.8 7.8 5.6 3.8 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 7 - 11 0.3 1.3 2.9 5.4 7.6 10.3 11.5 12.2 11.8 10.2 9.0 6.9 4.5 3.0 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Southern Miss 7 - 11 0.6 1.9 4.5 7.6 10.0 12.0 12.6 12.3 10.7 9.4 6.8 4.9 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgia St. 6 - 12 1.0 3.4 6.1 9.3 11.6 12.8 13.3 11.6 9.9 7.4 5.4 3.7 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 4 - 14 5.8 12.4 15.9 16.5 15.4 12.1 8.9 5.5 3.6 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Troy 33.2% 22.6 8.1 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Arkansas St. 23.4% 15.1 6.3 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
James Madison 19.2% 11.8 5.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
South Alabama 14.5% 8.5 4.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Marshall 11.8% 6.8 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Old Dominion 7.7% 4.2 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
Appalachian St. 3.9% 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 4.3% 2.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 3.1% 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Texas St. 2.6% 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 1.8% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgia St. 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Troy 24.0% 23.8% 0.2% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 4.4 9.8 6.1 2.3 0.6 0.1 76.0 0.2%
Arkansas St. 17.0% 16.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.4 5.1 2.4 0.6 0.1 83.0 0.1%
James Madison 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.1 4.7 3.7 1.5 0.3 84.7 0.0%
South Alabama 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.6 3.9 2.6 0.8 0.1 87.9 0.0%
Marshall 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.6 3.4 2.3 0.8 0.2 89.9 0.0%
Old Dominion 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.8 1.4 0.6 93.8 0.0%
Appalachian St. 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 96.4 0.0%
Georgia Southern 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 96.5 0.0%
Louisiana 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 97.2 0.0%
Texas St. 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.4 97.6 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 98.5 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 98.9 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 99.3 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Troy 24.0% 0.2% 24.0% 3.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 17.0% 0.1% 17.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 15.3% 0.1% 15.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 12.1% 0.1% 12.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 10.1% 0.1% 10.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 6.2% 0.3% 6.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 3.6% 0.3% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 3.5% 0.1% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 2.8% 0.3% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 2.4% 0.2% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.5% 0.3% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.1% 0.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.7 0.3
1st Round 99.4% 1.0 0.6 98.1 1.3 0.0
2nd Round 10.5% 0.1 89.5 10.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0