Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
146 Troy 21.0%   14   4 - 5 0 - 0 17 - 11 12 - 6 +0.8      -0.4 176 +1.2 133 69.5 185 +0.1 171 0.0 1
155 Arkansas St. 16.2%   5 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 0.0      -0.2 171 +0.2 162 79.0 14 +5.5 101 0.0 1
165 South Alabama 13.4%   7 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 9 11 - 7 -0.7      0.0 160 -0.7 190 63.1 333 +6.7 88 0.0 1
169 James Madison 12.4%   5 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 -1.0      +2.3 114 -3.3 277 65.1 299 -0.3 181 0.0 1
170 Marshall 12.9%   5 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 -1.0      -0.9 189 -0.1 170 75.1 51 +2.7 141 0.0 1
219 Southern Miss 6.0%   3 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -3.6      -0.1 166 -3.5 286 67.7 228 -2.8 206 0.0 1
220 Old Dominion 5.4%   2 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 17 10 - 8 -3.6      -0.9 190 -2.8 263 68.3 217 -6.3 266 0.0 1
226 Georgia Southern 4.5%   4 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -4.0      -1.7 213 -2.3 245 75.7 42 -3.3 216 0.0 1
232 Texas St. 3.8%   4 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 9 -4.2      -3.9 273 -0.3 176 65.5 286 -5.6 249 0.0 1
260 Coastal Carolina 2.4%   4 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -5.6      -5.6 324 0.0 168 73.4 92 -3.9 230 0.0 1
283 Appalachian St. 1.4%   3 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 10 -6.6      -4.2 282 -2.5 251 59.6 363 -6.2 263 0.0 1
318 Louisiana 0.4%   1 - 8 0 - 0 8 - 22 6 - 12 -8.9      -7.1 347 -1.8 227 62.6 341 -14.1 345 0.0 1
334 Georgia St. 0.1%   0 - 8 0 - 0 6 - 22 5 - 13 -10.5      -7.8 352 -2.7 260 71.8 127 -15.3 350 0.0 1
357 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   1 - 6 0 - 0 5 - 23 3 - 15 -14.1      -7.9 354 -6.2 349 72.5 108 -20.2 360 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 2 116 New Mexico St. 75 165 South Alabama 77   
Tue, Dec 2 334 Georgia St. 67 191 Mercer 78   
Tue, Dec 2 155 Arkansas St. 83 190 Texas Arlington 63   
Wed, Dec 3 170 Marshall 69 109 UNC Wilmington 70   
Wed, Dec 3 217 Rice 77 232 Texas St. 72   
Wed, Dec 3 226 Georgia Southern 77 188 Louisiana Tech 69   
Wed, Dec 3 169 James Madison 67 336 NC Central 62   
Wed, Dec 3 195 Lamar 65 318 Louisiana 55   
Wed, Dec 3 290 Radford 75 219 Southern Miss 82   
Wed, Dec 3 260 Coastal Carolina 78 278 South Carolina Upstate 85   
Wed, Dec 3 365 Mississippi Valley 52 357 Louisiana Monroe 66   
Fri, Dec 5 115 East Tennessee St. 91 165 South Alabama 65   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 6 170 Marshall 79 194 Ohio 81 56%   
Sat, Dec 6 169 James Madison 72 231 Norfolk St. 66 72%   
Sat, Dec 6 220 Old Dominion 69 104 Richmond 80 85%   
Sat, Dec 6 260 Coastal Carolina 71 107 Winthrop 84 88%   
Sat, Dec 6 34 Miami (FL) 85 219 Southern Miss 65 96%   
Sat, Dec 6 155 Arkansas St. 77 305 Arkansas Little Rock 72 69%   
Sat, Dec 6 318 Louisiana 60 109 UNC Wilmington 70 83%   
Sat, Dec 6 334 Georgia St. 72 162 Kennesaw St. 86 89%   
Sat, Dec 6 226 Georgia Southern 84 360 Gardner-Webb 77 76%   
Sun, Dec 7 144 Stephen F. Austin 81 357 Louisiana Monroe 62 95%   
Mon, Dec 8 284 Grambling St. 67 219 Southern Miss 74 72%   
Wed, Dec 10 170 Marshall 80 123 Western Kentucky 81 54%   
Wed, Dec 10 201 Southern 71 232 Texas St. 73 55%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Troy 3.5 29.6 18.0 13.2 10.6 7.9 6.3 5.3 3.3 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1
Arkansas St. 4.0 22.8 16.4 13.0 11.5 9.4 7.3 5.8 4.8 3.5 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
South Alabama 4.4 17.9 15.0 13.5 11.4 10.1 8.7 6.8 5.9 4.2 3.0 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.1
James Madison 4.8 15.1 13.8 12.2 11.6 10.0 8.7 7.5 6.4 5.1 4.0 2.7 1.8 0.8 0.2
Marshall 4.7 16.3 14.3 12.7 11.5 10.1 8.4 7.1 6.2 5.0 3.6 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.2
Southern Miss 6.4 7.6 8.0 8.4 9.1 9.2 9.6 9.6 9.0 8.4 7.4 6.0 4.3 2.4 1.0
Old Dominion 6.4 6.5 8.4 9.2 9.7 9.6 9.2 9.8 9.0 8.3 7.5 6.0 4.0 2.3 0.6
Georgia Southern 6.6 6.1 7.7 8.5 8.4 9.6 9.8 9.3 9.6 9.1 7.6 6.1 4.4 2.9 0.9
Texas St. 7.2 4.2 5.4 6.9 7.4 8.2 9.4 9.7 10.4 10.5 9.3 8.1 6.1 3.2 1.3
Coastal Carolina 7.7 3.0 5.0 5.7 6.6 7.7 8.5 9.0 9.8 10.0 10.3 9.6 7.7 5.1 2.0
Appalachian St. 8.6 1.6 2.8 4.0 4.9 6.0 7.4 8.2 9.6 10.6 11.8 11.8 10.8 7.4 3.1
Louisiana 10.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 1.9 2.8 4.4 5.3 7.2 9.2 12.1 15.3 17.3 13.7 8.2
Georgia St. 11.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.6 2.4 3.1 4.7 6.1 8.7 12.6 17.1 24.7 16.8
Louisiana Monroe 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.5 2.3 4.1 7.1 12.7 24.3 46.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Troy 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.7 9.7 12.8 14.8 15.5 13.8 10.1 6.0 2.6 0.5
Arkansas St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.2 5.7 8.0 11.9 14.0 14.7 14.3 11.2 7.9 4.4 1.7 0.5
South Alabama 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.9 6.8 9.7 13.1 14.9 14.9 13.2 9.8 6.3 2.9 1.1 0.2
James Madison 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.9 5.0 7.7 10.8 13.2 14.9 13.8 12.0 8.9 5.1 2.6 0.8 0.1
Marshall 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.6 4.6 7.5 10.2 12.9 14.6 14.6 12.3 9.2 5.8 2.8 0.9 0.2
Southern Miss 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.5 9.3 12.2 13.2 13.8 12.2 10.3 7.1 4.6 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0
Old Dominion 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.4 6.2 9.7 12.0 13.6 13.7 12.9 10.6 7.2 4.6 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
Georgia Southern 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.3 6.6 9.9 12.0 14.0 13.8 12.2 9.8 6.7 4.0 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.0
Texas St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.0 5.7 8.7 11.9 13.9 14.0 13.4 10.7 7.7 5.0 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.2 4.4 6.8 10.2 12.7 13.6 13.2 12.1 9.2 6.8 4.3 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.1
Appalachian St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.4 6.3 9.6 12.5 14.3 14.0 12.7 9.7 7.2 4.5 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Louisiana 6 - 12 0.3 1.3 3.7 7.4 11.9 14.6 15.9 14.7 11.7 8.1 5.3 2.9 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1
Georgia St. 5 - 13 1.3 4.2 8.6 13.6 15.0 15.7 13.2 11.0 7.5 4.5 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 3 - 15 4.7 12.9 18.3 19.8 16.2 11.8 7.6 4.4 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Troy 29.6% 18.9 7.7 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 22.8% 13.7 6.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 17.9% 10.5 5.2 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
James Madison 15.1% 8.4 4.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marshall 16.3% 9.4 4.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 7.6% 4.0 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Old Dominion 6.5% 3.3 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgia Southern 6.1% 2.9 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas St. 4.2% 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 3.0% 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Appalachian St. 1.6% 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Louisiana 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 0.2% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Troy 21.0% 21.0% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.2 2.3 7.2 8.0 3.1 0.3 79.0 0.0%
Arkansas St. 16.2% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.7 6.7 3.1 0.2 83.8 0.0%
South Alabama 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 3.6 6.1 2.5 0.2 86.6 0.0%
James Madison 12.4% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.9 4.2 0.8 87.6 0.0%
Marshall 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.9 5.4 3.6 0.5 87.1 0.0%
Southern Miss 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.6 0.8 94.0 0.0%
Old Dominion 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.4 1.9 94.6 0.0%
Georgia Southern 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.1 0.9 95.5 0.0%
Texas St. 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.1 96.2 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.7 97.6 0.0%
Appalachian St. 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.2 0.6 0.6 98.6 0.0%
Louisiana 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Troy 21.0% 0.0% 21.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 16.2% 0.0% 16.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 13.4% 0.0% 13.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 12.4% 0.2% 12.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 12.9% 0.1% 12.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 6.0% 0.2% 5.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 5.4% 0.8% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 4.5% 0.3% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 3.8% 0.3% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 2.4% 0.2% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 1.4% 0.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.8% 1.0 1.2 98.8
2nd Round 4.7% 0.0 95.3 4.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0