Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
112 Troy 44.4%   13   12 - 6 7 - 1 +3.5      +2.2 114 +1.3 127 67.1 233 +4.0 103 +7.3 1
145 Arkansas St. 22.6%   11 - 7 5 - 3 +0.9      +1.3 132 -0.4 180 79.2 11 +3.1 119 +1.3 2
163 Marshall 11.5%   12 - 7 5 - 3 -0.3      +0.7 142 -1.0 206 72.4 87 +0.5 156 -2.4 6
191 South Alabama 7.9%   12 - 6 5 - 3 -2.0      -2.4 236 +0.4 153 64.1 310 +0.9 149 -1.5 4
206 Appalachian St. 4.2%   10 - 9 5 - 4 -2.8      -2.2 226 -0.7 193 60.0 362 -2.6 214 -4.0 8
231 James Madison 1.1%   8 - 11 2 - 6 -4.0      +0.1 160 -4.1 298 65.0 283 -4.0 228 -7.8 12
240 Old Dominion 0.8%   5 - 15 3 - 6 -4.4      -2.8 250 -1.6 225 71.2 115 -7.7 291 -7.6 11
244 Southern Miss 1.6%   9 - 10 5 - 4 -4.6      -4.2 290 -0.4 182 70.7 132 -3.7 227 -5.1 9
251 Georgia Southern 2.2%   11 - 8 5 - 3 -4.9      -1.0 191 -3.9 292 75.0 42 -2.8 215 -1.6 5
252 Coastal Carolina 1.9%   11 - 9 5 - 4 -5.0      -4.2 288 -0.8 197 69.2 170 -1.4 192 -3.1 7
263 Texas St. 0.7%   9 - 10 4 - 5 -5.6      -4.7 299 -1.0 204 67.0 236 -5.4 251 -5.2 10
273 Georgia St. 1.1%   6 - 12 5 - 3 -6.2      -6.5 330 +0.3 156 71.8 99 -5.6 255 -0.6 3
312 Louisiana 0.0%   5 - 16 3 - 6 -9.1      -7.2 339 -1.9 239 60.4 360 -11.0 331 -9.4 13
361 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   1 - 17 0 - 8 -15.8      -7.4 343 -8.4 359 74.8 46 -24.8 364 -22.5 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Jan 21 240 Old Dominion 77 112 Troy 83   
Thu, Jan 22 206 Appalachian St. 72 312 Louisiana 58   
Thu, Jan 22 231 James Madison 83 191 South Alabama 90   
Thu, Jan 22 252 Coastal Carolina 72 263 Texas St. 70   
Thu, Jan 22 273 Georgia St. 69 244 Southern Miss 62   
Thu, Jan 22 145 Arkansas St. 85 251 Georgia Southern 68   
Thu, Jan 22 163 Marshall 115 361 Louisiana Monroe 60   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 23 206 Appalachian St. 79 361 Louisiana Monroe 63 92%   
Sat, Jan 24 163 Marshall 75 191 South Alabama 70 68%   
Sat, Jan 24 252 Coastal Carolina 73 244 Southern Miss 70 60%   
Sat, Jan 24 231 James Madison 74 263 Texas St. 69 67%   
Sat, Jan 24 251 Georgia Southern 75 112 Troy 81 70%   
Sat, Jan 24 145 Arkansas St. 80 273 Georgia St. 76 66%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Troy 1.1 89.4 8.0 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 2.4 17.1 52.4 16.9 6.9 3.5 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marshall 4.2 4.1 20.5 24.0 16.2 11.5 7.5 5.7 4.1 2.9 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.1
South Alabama 4.4 3.5 15.2 22.0 19.0 13.3 9.4 6.8 4.4 3.1 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0
Appalachian St. 5.8 0.9 5.0 13.3 15.5 15.5 13.5 11.2 8.9 6.7 5.1 2.9 1.2 0.2
James Madison 9.4 0.2 1.3 3.3 5.3 6.8 8.5 9.5 11.2 12.8 14.4 16.4 10.4 0.0
Old Dominion 9.4 0.2 1.0 2.6 4.8 6.3 8.6 10.6 12.9 14.3 15.9 15.5 7.3 0.0
Southern Miss 7.5 0.3 2.2 5.8 8.3 9.6 11.3 12.5 12.4 11.7 10.4 8.6 5.5 1.4
Georgia Southern 6.1 1.1 5.3 11.9 13.8 13.5 12.3 11.6 9.5 8.2 6.0 4.0 2.2 0.7 0.0
Coastal Carolina 6.4 0.4 4.6 9.8 12.8 13.8 13.1 12.2 10.5 8.4 6.5 4.7 2.4 0.8
Texas St. 8.4 0.1 0.7 2.8 5.3 7.3 9.1 11.2 11.8 12.9 13.5 11.9 9.0 4.3
Georgia St. 6.8 1.0 4.2 8.1 11.5 12.4 12.2 11.7 10.2 9.2 7.7 6.1 4.4 1.5
Louisiana 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 3.1 4.8 8.0 12.6 21.1 46.7 0.2
Louisiana Monroe 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Troy 15 - 3 20 - 9 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.6 10.2 20.4 28.4 25.2 11.0
Arkansas St. 13 - 5 19 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.1 12.0 22.5 27.3 22.1 8.9
Marshall 11 - 7 18 - 12 0.0 0.4 1.7 5.8 11.4 18.4 22.0 20.4 13.5 5.3 1.2
South Alabama 11 - 7 18 - 11 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.8 13.8 21.7 23.6 19.2 10.0 3.3 0.5
Appalachian St. 10 - 8 15 - 14 0.1 1.2 5.9 13.7 22.3 25.1 18.9 9.3 3.0 0.4
James Madison 7 - 11 14 - 16 0.1 0.7 3.0 8.5 15.6 22.3 22.6 16.1 8.3 2.5 0.4
Old Dominion 8 - 10 10 - 20 0.1 1.4 6.5 16.2 24.4 24.7 16.7 7.9 1.8 0.2
Southern Miss 9 - 9 13 - 16 1.1 6.4 15.2 22.6 23.8 17.2 9.4 3.4 0.8 0.1
Georgia Southern 10 - 8 16 - 13 0.4 2.5 8.0 15.8 22.1 21.8 16.3 8.7 3.3 0.9 0.2
Coastal Carolina 9 - 9 16 - 14 0.4 2.6 9.3 16.7 23.2 22.8 15.4 7.2 2.1 0.3
Texas St. 8 - 10 14 - 15 0.3 3.2 11.0 20.6 24.4 21.0 12.8 5.3 1.3 0.1
Georgia St. 9 - 9 11 - 18 0.8 4.6 11.3 18.6 22.0 19.9 13.4 6.4 2.4 0.6 0.1
Louisiana 6 - 12 8 - 23 3.9 14.8 25.1 26.0 18.2 8.4 2.8 0.6 0.1
Louisiana Monroe 1 - 17 2 - 27 36.6 36.8 18.8 6.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Troy 89.4% 75.0 12.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 17.1% 6.6 8.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Marshall 4.1% 1.1 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 3.5% 1.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Appalachian St. 0.9% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
James Madison
Old Dominion
Southern Miss 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Southern 1.1% 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 1.0% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Troy 44.4% 44.4% 0.0% 13   0.0 1.4 14.5 21.6 6.6 0.4 0.0 55.6 0.0%
Arkansas St. 22.6% 22.6% 0.0% 0.1 2.6 8.4 9.1 2.4 0.1 77.4 0.0%
Marshall 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.4 2.2 0.1 88.5 0.0%
South Alabama 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.3 3.8 2.4 0.2 92.1 0.0%
Appalachian St. 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.9 0.5 95.8 0.0%
James Madison 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 98.9 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 99.2 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 98.4 0.0%
Georgia Southern 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.4 97.8 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.3 98.1 0.0%
Texas St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 99.3 0.0%
Georgia St. 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.8 98.9 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.4% 1.0 0.6 99.4
2nd Round 5.4% 0.1 94.6 5.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Troy 44.4% 0.0% 44.4% 3.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 22.6% 0.0% 22.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 11.5% 0.0% 11.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 7.9% 0.0% 7.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 4.2% 0.1% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 1.6% 0.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 2.2% 0.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.9% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 1.1% 0.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%