Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
109 Arkansas St. 24.6%   12   8 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 8 13 - 5 +3.8      +0.4 155 +3.4 90 73.5 68 +7.7 84 0.0 2
115 James Madison 21.9%   5 - 5 0 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 5 +3.2      +3.0 99 +0.3 157 67.0 229 +1.1 154 0.0 2
125 Troy 17.1%   5 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 10 12 - 6 +2.3      +0.3 160 +2.0 114 69.1 175 +1.1 155 0.0 2
139 Texas St. 12.7%   5 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 7 +1.1      +1.2 137 -0.1 170 64.8 283 +2.8 125 0.0 2
173 Appalachian St. 6.6%   4 - 6 0 - 1 14 - 13 10 - 8 -0.8      -2.7 244 +1.9 117 63.5 316 -2.8 211 -19.1 14
190 Marshall 6.0%   5 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -1.3      -1.3 208 0.0 165 74.6 51 -2.5 207 0.0 2
202 South Alabama 5.1%   6 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 8 -1.8      -1.2 204 -0.6 187 63.0 325 -2.3 205 0.0 2
234 Georgia Southern 2.4%   6 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -3.8      -2.8 251 -1.0 198 77.9 17 +0.4 162 0.0 2
263 Georgia St. 1.1%   3 - 7 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -5.6      -3.3 268 -2.2 243 72.7 80 -6.9 283 0.0 2
268 Coastal Carolina 1.0%   5 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 11 -5.7      -3.4 271 -2.3 246 61.6 347 -5.3 256 0.0 2
283 Southern Miss 0.6%   3 - 7 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 12 -6.7      -5.2 320 -1.5 215 72.4 91 -5.7 265 0.0 2
291 Louisiana 0.6%   2 - 9 1 - 0 8 - 21 7 - 11 -6.9      -2.9 252 -4.0 300 69.6 161 -9.6 316 +11.4 1
315 Old Dominion 0.3%   2 - 8 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 13 -8.7      -4.3 294 -4.3 307 72.1 96 -12.6 335 0.0 2
329 Louisiana Monroe 0.1%   2 - 9 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 13 -9.9      -6.8 345 -3.1 275 68.5 192 -14.6 348 0.0 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Arkansas St. 2.8 35.5 21.9 14.9 10.2 6.4 4.4 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
James Madison 2.9 33.1 22.2 14.7 9.9 6.9 4.8 3.2 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Troy 3.9 20.4 17.5 15.3 12.8 9.9 7.6 5.8 3.9 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1
Texas St. 4.3 16.5 15.7 15.1 13.2 10.8 8.5 6.6 4.9 3.5 2.3 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.2
Appalachian St. 5.9 5.5 8.3 10.8 11.8 12.2 11.6 10.2 8.9 6.9 5.5 3.9 2.5 1.5 0.6
Marshall 6.0 7.0 8.8 10.1 11.1 11.3 10.8 9.5 8.6 7.1 5.6 4.3 3.1 1.8 0.8
South Alabama 6.2 5.6 7.8 9.6 10.8 11.1 11.3 10.7 9.1 7.7 5.7 4.4 3.3 2.0 0.9
Georgia Southern 7.3 2.5 4.3 6.5 8.5 9.7 10.5 11.0 11.0 9.5 8.3 7.3 5.2 3.8 2.0
Georgia St. 8.7 0.9 1.9 3.1 4.8 6.2 7.9 9.4 10.3 10.9 11.4 11.1 9.7 7.8 4.5
Coastal Carolina 8.8 0.9 1.8 2.9 4.6 6.3 8.1 9.0 9.9 11.1 11.4 10.7 10.2 8.1 5.1
Southern Miss 9.9 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.8 5.0 6.6 8.7 10.1 12.0 12.8 13.8 12.2 9.6
Louisiana 9.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.7 5.0 6.8 8.7 10.5 12.1 12.7 12.4 11.1 8.3 4.8
Old Dominion 11.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.2 3.2 4.5 6.1 7.5 9.7 12.3 14.9 18.3 18.6
Louisiana Monroe 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.6 2.6 3.9 5.4 7.9 10.7 15.0 21.6 29.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arkansas St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.9 6.7 10.5 14.6 16.8 16.7 14.0 8.6 4.0 0.9
James Madison 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.5 4.6 7.3 10.8 14.1 16.4 16.0 13.1 8.3 4.0 1.0
Troy 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.9 4.9 7.9 11.2 14.1 15.0 15.1 12.2 8.1 4.4 1.7 0.3
Texas St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.6 6.3 9.2 12.4 14.4 15.5 13.8 10.4 6.4 3.5 1.1 0.2
Appalachian St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.6 5.0 8.4 11.6 13.5 15.5 14.4 11.9 8.1 4.6 1.9 0.6 0.1
Marshall 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.2 5.4 8.4 11.3 13.2 14.4 13.1 11.2 8.3 5.2 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1
South Alabama 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.4 5.8 9.0 11.9 14.4 14.5 13.1 10.9 7.3 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
Georgia Southern 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.3 5.8 8.8 12.3 14.3 14.6 13.5 10.5 7.4 4.2 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgia St. 7 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.8 6.8 10.4 13.0 15.1 14.7 12.5 9.6 5.9 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Coastal Carolina 7 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.9 7.0 10.7 13.8 14.6 14.3 12.0 9.4 6.0 3.4 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 6 - 12 0.2 1.1 3.3 6.8 11.3 14.2 15.4 14.9 12.1 9.1 5.7 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 7 - 11 0.2 1.1 3.7 7.5 12.3 15.7 16.3 14.9 11.5 8.0 4.9 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Old Dominion 5 - 13 0.7 3.0 7.1 11.7 15.0 15.8 14.2 12.0 8.6 5.5 3.3 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 5 - 13 1.3 5.3 11.0 15.9 17.6 16.3 12.6 8.9 5.6 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas St. 35.5% 23.3 9.1 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
James Madison 33.1% 21.3 8.8 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Troy 20.4% 12.0 6.0 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas St. 16.5% 9.5 4.8 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Appalachian St. 5.5% 2.4 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Marshall 7.0% 3.5 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
South Alabama 5.6% 2.8 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgia Southern 2.5% 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia St. 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 0.9% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Southern Miss 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Old Dominion 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas St. 24.6% 24.6% 0.0% 12   0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4 11.4 9.3 2.0 0.1 0.0 75.4 0.0%
James Madison 21.9% 21.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 5.7 9.2 5.1 1.1 0.1 78.1 0.0%
Troy 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.5 6.7 4.8 1.6 0.2 82.9 0.0%
Texas St. 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.2 4.9 4.0 1.3 0.1 87.3 0.0%
Appalachian St. 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 1.8 0.5 93.4 0.0%
Marshall 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.1 1.9 0.5 94.0 0.0%
South Alabama 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.8 0.5 94.9 0.0%
Georgia Southern 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.3 97.6 0.0%
Georgia St. 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 98.9 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 99.0 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.4 0.0%
Louisiana 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.7 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas St. 24.6% 0.0% 24.6% 3.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 21.9% 0.0% 21.9% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 17.1% 0.1% 17.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 12.7% 0.0% 12.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 6.6% 0.2% 6.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 6.0% 0.2% 5.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 5.1% 0.1% 5.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 2.4% 0.1% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 1.1% 0.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 1.0% 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 99.1% 1.0 0.9 99.1 0.0
2nd Round 11.4% 0.1 88.6 11.4
Sweet Sixteen 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0