Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
93 Arkansas St. 38.6%   12   17 - 5 9 - 2 23 - 7 15 - 3 +5.9      +2.5 109 +3.4 82 71.5 94 +7.7 74 +7.2 1
111 Troy 20.0%   13 - 7 8 - 3 18 - 10 13 - 5 +3.3      +0.8 157 +2.5 105 65.6 252 +2.1 135 +2.8 2
137 James Madison 11.5%   12 - 9 7 - 4 17 - 12 12 - 6 +1.4      +1.4 136 0.0 170 65.8 244 +1.8 144 +1.0 3
145 Appalachian St. 10.7%   11 - 9 7 - 4 16 - 12 12 - 6 +1.2      -2.2 234 +3.4 84 62.6 327 -0.2 170 0.0 4
156 South Alabama 8.8%   13 - 8 7 - 4 17 - 12 11 - 7 +0.5      -2.0 230 +2.6 101 61.6 344 -0.5 179 -0.2 5
182 Marshall 4.7%   12 - 10 7 - 4 16 - 13 11 - 7 -1.1      -0.6 190 -0.5 186 70.4 125 -2.0 201 -0.7 6
184 Texas St. 3.7%   10 - 11 5 - 6 14 - 15 9 - 9 -1.3      +1.6 130 -2.9 260 66.2 233 -1.6 197 -3.2 9
248 Southern Miss 0.6%   8 - 13 5 - 6 11 - 18 8 - 10 -5.1      -4.8 302 -0.3 178 73.3 58 -4.5 236 -2.8 8
254 Georgia Southern 0.4%   10 - 12 4 - 7 14 - 16 7 - 11 -5.4      -3.3 263 -2.0 230 74.4 43 -4.0 228 -6.7 12
275 Old Dominion 0.4%   8 - 13 6 - 5 11 - 18 9 - 9 -6.3      -3.6 270 -2.8 256 66.1 240 -5.9 261 -1.4 7
278 Georgia St. 0.4%   7 - 15 4 - 7 11 - 19 7 - 11 -6.5      -1.3 213 -5.2 323 71.8 88 -6.8 279 -5.3 10
301 Louisiana 0.1%   6 - 16 5 - 6 8 - 22 7 - 11 -7.8      -5.2 314 -2.6 250 67.4 205 -8.4 302 -5.5 11
309 Coastal Carolina 0.1%   6 - 15 1 - 10 9 - 20 3 - 15 -8.5      -3.5 267 -5.0 316 60.5 350 -9.9 322 -17.3 14
328 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   4 - 18 2 - 9 5 - 24 3 - 15 -10.5      -6.8 340 -3.7 282 68.1 186 -12.9 339 -11.7 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Arkansas St. 1.1 91.2 6.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
Troy 2.6 16.0 43.6 20.5 11.6 5.7 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
James Madison 3.4 4.8 30.4 23.1 19.7 13.0 6.0 2.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 3.5 4.4 28.1 25.1 17.4 12.8 8.1 2.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
South Alabama 4.2 3.0 14.0 19.7 21.3 19.8 13.0 5.8 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0
Marshall 5.1 1.2 8.2 13.0 15.5 19.3 21.8 12.1 6.0 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Texas St. 7.0 0.9 2.9 6.1 9.7 16.1 24.4 18.7 11.9 6.0 2.5 0.8 0.0
Southern Miss 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.9 7.5 15.6 22.9 22.8 14.9 8.3 3.6 0.2
Georgia Southern 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.7 8.0 13.9 17.7 21.1 18.4 15.6 0.8 0.0
Old Dominion 7.3 0.0 0.8 2.2 4.8 9.1 16.4 22.3 18.6 12.6 7.8 4.2 1.2 0.0
Georgia St. 9.8 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.9 7.9 12.4 16.5 19.8 22.9 14.4 1.8 0.2
Louisiana 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.2 4.3 7.9 12.9 18.5 26.6 27.1 0.9 0.0
Coastal Carolina 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.0 6.0 49.4 41.8
Louisiana Monroe 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 6.3 57.8 33.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arkansas St. 15 - 3 0.0 0.5 2.1 8.7 24.9 38.1 25.8
Troy 13 - 5 0.0 0.5 3.7 13.2 27.4 31.9 19.2 4.2
James Madison 12 - 6 0.0 0.6 3.3 10.4 21.8 30.7 24.4 8.8
Appalachian St. 12 - 6 0.1 0.8 3.7 11.5 22.7 29.1 23.6 8.6
South Alabama 11 - 7 0.1 1.7 7.6 19.2 28.5 27.1 13.1 2.6
Marshall 11 - 7 0.9 6.0 15.9 25.9 27.2 17.1 6.1 0.9
Texas St. 9 - 9 0.4 2.8 10.6 22.0 28.4 22.2 11.2 2.3
Southern Miss 8 - 10 1.7 9.5 23.4 31.8 22.6 9.4 1.6 0.0
Georgia Southern 7 - 11 1.6 9.0 22.0 29.3 23.8 10.9 3.2 0.3
Old Dominion 9 - 9 3.4 12.4 24.4 26.8 20.0 9.6 2.9 0.4
Georgia St. 7 - 11 1.9 10.3 23.4 29.8 21.5 10.2 2.7 0.3
Louisiana 7 - 11 18.1 32.9 28.3 14.7 5.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 3 - 15 7.6 21.9 31.3 24.1 11.2 3.5 0.5 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 3 - 15 21.0 36.2 27.2 12.1 3.0 0.5 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas St. 91.2% 76.5 11.3 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Troy 16.0% 5.6 7.7 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
James Madison 4.8% 0.6 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 4.4% 0.6 1.8 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
South Alabama 3.0% 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Marshall 1.2% 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas St.
Southern Miss 0.0% 0.0
Georgia Southern
Old Dominion 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Georgia St.
Louisiana
Coastal Carolina
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas St. 38.6% 38.6% 0.0% 12   0.0 4.5 25.2 8.3 0.6 61.4 0.0%
Troy 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.1 3.6 8.9 6.4 1.0 0.0 80.0 0.0%
James Madison 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 4.2 4.8 1.4 0.0 88.5 0.0%
Appalachian St. 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.5 2.7 0.2 89.3 0.0%
South Alabama 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.4 2.4 4.1 1.8 0.1 91.2 0.0%
Marshall 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.5 0.7 95.3 0.0%
Texas St. 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.5 0.5 96.3 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 99.6 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.6 0.0%
Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas St. 38.6% 0.0% 38.6% 6.2% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 11.5% 0.0% 11.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 10.7% 0.0% 10.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 8.8% 0.0% 8.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 4.7% 0.1% 4.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 3.7% 0.2% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Miss 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia St. 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 99.3% 1.0 0.7 99.3 0.0
2nd Round 10.7% 0.1 89.3 10.7
Sweet Sixteen 2.1% 0.0 98.0 2.1
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0