Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.5 #112
Expected Predictive Rating +4.0 #103
Pace 67.1 #233
Improvement +4.0 #31

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #114 C+ C+ C C+ A-
Defense #127 C C C C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #53 1.08 #271 +1.2 #130
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #332 0.79 #129 -3.1 #324
Three Pointers 44% #123 1.07 #107 +2.8 #93
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #144 +1.0 #151
Freethrows 18.6 #117 72% #212 13.4 #136
Second Chance 34.5% #72 1.03 #200 0.35 #104
Turnovers 16.5% #178
Total Offense +2.2 #114

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #242 1.05 #64 +3.1 #79
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #157 0.91 #354 -1.8 #313
Three Pointers 43% #132 1.07 #252 -1.9 #271
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #196 -0.6 #196
Freethrows 17.0 #176 68% #33 11.7 #121
Second Chance 31.4% #223 1.06 #214 0.33 #221
Turnovers 16.9% #152
Total Defense +1.3 #127

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.8% #24 -0.4% #130
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.6% #188 1.6% #211
Possession Length 17.8 #221 17.5 #208
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #197 0.16 #149
Improvement +3.5 #25 +0.6 #144

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.1% 45.5% 41.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 89.3% 94.2% 78.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round44.1% 45.5% 41.0%
Second Round3.3% 3.7% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Away) - 69.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 12 - 2
Quad 36 - 59 - 7
Quad 413 - 222 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 148 @Kent St. W 103 - 97 OT 49% +8  1 - 0 +10 +10 A+ C+ B- -2 A- D- D
 Fri, Nov 7 165 @Furman W 64 - 61 54% +7  2 - 0 +5 -5 D+ F F +11 B C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 155 @Loyola Marymount L 63 - 74 51% -3  2 - 1 -8 -5 C+ D F -3 F A+ D
 Sun, Nov 16 207 @Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 94 63% -4  2 - 2 -9 +9 A- F A+ -17 F F B
 Tue, Nov 18 46 @San Diego St. W 108 - 107 2OT 16% +3  3 - 2 +15 +21 C+ A+ A+ -6 C+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 48 @USC L 106 - 107 3OT 16% -2  3 - 3 +13 +9 C- A+ D- +5 A- A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 166 Toledo L 68 - 75 65% -2  3 - 4 -8 -7 F F C -1 B- D C+
 Wed, Nov 26 358 St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 64 94% -2  4 - 4 -5 -9 F D+ F +4 D B+ A+
 Mon, Dec 1 338 West Georgia L 89 - 93 2OT 94% +0  4 - 5 -18 -9 C- F F -9 D B F
 Sun, Dec 14 117 @UAB W 86 - 85 41% +0  5 - 5 +7 +19 A+ A A+ -12 F F A-
 Sat, Dec 20 163 Marshall W 70 - 63 74% +6  6 - 5 1 - 0 +4 -5 F C- D- +9 A+ A B-
 Wed, Dec 31 263 Texas St. W 100 - 80 87% +8  7 - 5 2 - 0 +11 +28 A+ A+ A+ -16 F F C
 Sat, Jan 3 191 South Alabama W 59 - 49 79% +5  8 - 5 3 - 0 +5 -3 F D- B- +10 A+ C+ A-
 Wed, Jan 7 145 @Arkansas St. L 74 - 86 48% -10  8 - 6 3 - 1 -8 -3 D+ F C -5 F D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 312 @Louisiana W 90 - 70 82% +16  9 - 6 4 - 1 +14 +26 B- A+ D- -10 F A+ C
 Wed, Jan 14 244 Southern Miss W 91 - 65 85% +12  10 - 6 5 - 1 +18 +16 A+ C A+ +2 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 145 Arkansas St. W 99 - 74 70% +9  11 - 6 6 - 1 +23 +29 A+ A+ A+ -5 B+ F F
 Wed, Jan 21 240 @Old Dominion W 83 - 77 2OT 68% -1  12 - 6 7 - 1 +5 -2 F B- C- +5 B A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 251 @Georgia Southern W 81 - 76 69%
 Thu, Jan 29 231 James Madison W 78 - 68 84%
 Sat, Jan 31 206 Appalachian St. W 72 - 63 80%
 Wed, Feb 4 273 @Georgia St. W 75 - 68 73%
 Sat, Feb 7 64 Akron L 80 - 82 42%
 Wed, Feb 11 263 @Texas St. W 74 - 68 71%
 Sat, Feb 14 244 @Southern Miss W 75 - 70 68%
 Wed, Feb 18 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 85 - 69 94%
 Sat, Feb 21 191 @South Alabama W 71 - 69 59%
 Tue, Feb 24 312 Louisiana W 74 - 58 93%
 Fri, Feb 27 361 Louisiana Monroe W 88 - 66 98%
Totals 20 - 9 15 - 3 +3 +2 C+ C+ C +1 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 6.1 18.4 28.2 24.9 11.0 89.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 4.1 2.2 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 10.5 20.6 28.2 24.9 11.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 11.0    11.0
16-2 100.0% 24.9    24.9
15-3 100.0% 28.2    25.2 3.0 0.0
14-4 89.5% 18.4    12.0 5.9 0.5
13-5 57.5% 6.1    2.0 2.9 1.0 0.2
12-6 19.8% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
11-7 2.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 89.3% 89.3 75.1 12.0 1.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 11.0% 54.4% 54.4% 12.0 0.0 1.3 3.4 1.3 0.1 5.0
16-2 24.9% 49.2% 49.2% 12.5 0.2 5.9 5.6 0.6 0.0 12.6
15-3 28.2% 45.1% 45.1% 12.9 0.0 3.4 7.5 1.8 0.0 15.5
14-4 20.6% 41.6% 41.6% 13.1 0.0 1.2 5.1 2.1 0.1 12.0
13-5 10.5% 34.3% 34.3% 13.4 0.0 0.2 1.9 1.3 0.1 6.9
12-6 3.7% 24.6% 24.6% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.8
11-7 1.0% 9.4% 9.4% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.9
10-8 0.1% 10.3% 10.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 44.1% 44.1% 0.0% 12.8 55.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.0% 100.0% 11.6 0.5 37.5 59.5 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%