Troy
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#111
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#135
Pace65.6#252
Improvement+1.2#133

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#157
First Shot-1.4#222
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#50
Layup/Dunks+3.4#67
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#354
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#259
Freethrows+1.5#91
Improvement+1.9#82

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#105
First Shot+0.1#177
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#24
Layups/Dunks-1.9#251
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#291
Freethrows+3.2#17
Improvement-0.7#222
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.0% 24.3% 16.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.4
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 16.0% 24.9% 8.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round20.0% 24.3% 16.4%
Second Round2.0% 2.5% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Away) - 45.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 35 - 36 - 8
Quad 414 - 220 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 201   Toledo W 84-74 77%     1 - 0 +5.6 -0.6 +5.6
  Nov 09, 2024 351   @ New Orleans W 78-61 89%     2 - 0 +6.6 -6.8 +12.1
  Nov 13, 2024 43   @ Arkansas L 49-65 16%     2 - 1 -1.9 -14.5 +12.3
  Nov 17, 2024 45   @ Oregon L 61-82 16%     2 - 2 -6.9 -8.4 +2.6
  Nov 19, 2024 345   @ West Georgia W 84-65 88%     3 - 2 +9.6 +14.7 -3.3
  Nov 25, 2024 202   Texas San Antonio W 86-72 77%     4 - 2 +9.5 +7.3 +1.9
  Nov 29, 2024 198   Merrimack L 68-72 76%     4 - 3 -8.2 +3.7 -12.4
  Dec 01, 2024 231   Eastern Kentucky W 84-74 82%     5 - 3 +3.6 +6.4 -2.7
  Dec 10, 2024 3   @ Houston L 42-62 3%     5 - 4 +5.2 -6.1 +5.8
  Dec 21, 2024 278   Georgia St. W 77-57 87%     6 - 4 1 - 0 +11.0 +2.4 +9.8
  Jan 02, 2025 145   @ Appalachian St. W 69-61 49%     7 - 4 2 - 0 +11.6 +8.9 +3.7
  Jan 04, 2025 182   @ Marshall W 58-57 58%     8 - 4 3 - 0 +2.4 -6.6 +9.1
  Jan 09, 2025 184   Texas St. L 73-74 75%     8 - 5 3 - 1 -4.8 +0.1 -4.9
  Jan 11, 2025 93   Arkansas St. L 78-84 50%     8 - 6 3 - 2 -2.6 +13.3 -16.3
  Jan 15, 2025 328   @ Louisiana Monroe W 77-58 85%     9 - 6 4 - 2 +11.0 +9.6 +3.3
  Jan 18, 2025 156   @ South Alabama L 63-64 51%     9 - 7 4 - 3 +2.0 -1.0 +2.9
  Jan 25, 2025 156   South Alabama W 65-55 70%     10 - 7 5 - 3 +8.1 +2.0 +7.4
  Jan 27, 2025 248   Southern Miss W 70-61 85%     11 - 7 6 - 3 +1.4 -7.9 +8.8
  Jan 30, 2025 254   Georgia Southern W 81-74 85%     12 - 7 7 - 3 -0.8 +9.3 -9.8
  Feb 01, 2025 328   Louisiana Monroe W 87-50 93%     13 - 7 8 - 3 +24.0 +18.4 +9.5
  Feb 05, 2025 137   @ James Madison L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 08, 2025 173   @ Miami (OH) W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 12, 2025 301   @ Louisiana W 73-64 78%    
  Feb 15, 2025 93   @ Arkansas St. L 69-74 30%    
  Feb 20, 2025 301   Louisiana W 75-61 91%    
  Feb 22, 2025 309   Coastal Carolina W 73-59 92%    
  Feb 25, 2025 184   @ Texas St. W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 28, 2025 248   @ Southern Miss W 73-67 69%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.7 8.9 4.2 16.0 1st
2nd 0.4 8.9 23.9 10.3 43.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.0 12.6 4.9 20.5 3rd
4th 0.5 5.6 5.2 0.4 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 3.6 0.5 0.0 5.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 0.6 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.5 3.7 13.2 27.4 31.9 19.2 4.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 4.2    2.9 1.2
14-4 46.2% 8.9    2.4 5.4 1.0 0.1
13-5 8.6% 2.7    0.2 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.0% 16.0 5.6 7.7 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 4.2% 35.7% 35.7% 12.3 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 2.7
14-4 19.2% 27.7% 27.7% 12.9 1.6 2.8 0.9 0.0 13.9
13-5 31.9% 22.3% 22.3% 13.3 0.8 3.5 2.6 0.3 24.8
12-6 27.4% 16.0% 16.0% 13.6 0.3 1.7 2.0 0.5 0.0 23.0
11-7 13.2% 11.0% 11.0% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 11.8
10-8 3.7% 7.4% 7.4% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.4
9-9 0.5% 0.5
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 13.2 0.1 3.6 8.9 6.4 1.0 0.0 80.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 12.1 7.3 74.4 18.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%