Troy
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#101
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#120
Pace66.2#227
Improvement+2.1#106

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#160
First Shot-1.7#227
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#61
Layup/Dunks+3.2#70
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#354
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#264
Freethrows+1.4#90
Improvement+1.0#144

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#76
First Shot+1.3#131
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#22
Layups/Dunks-1.3#232
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#52
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#279
Freethrows+3.2#13
Improvement+1.1#121
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 13.4 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round100.0% n/a n/a
Second Round9.5% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen1.6% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.1% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 12 - 4
Quad 35 - 37 - 7
Quad 414 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 248   Toledo W 84-74 86%     1 - 0 +2.5 -3.2 +5.1
  Nov 09, 2024 354   @ New Orleans W 78-61 92%     2 - 0 +6.0 -8.0 +12.6
  Nov 13, 2024 38   @ Arkansas L 49-65 14%     2 - 1 -0.2 -12.9 +12.3
  Nov 17, 2024 34   @ Oregon L 61-82 13%     2 - 2 -4.6 -7.1 +3.5
  Nov 19, 2024 348   @ West Georgia W 84-65 90%     3 - 2 +9.0 +14.9 -4.0
  Nov 25, 2024 184   Texas San Antonio W 86-72 79%     4 - 2 +9.9 +8.5 +1.2
  Nov 29, 2024 192   Merrimack L 68-72 80%     4 - 3 -8.4 +3.5 -12.3
  Dec 01, 2024 198   Eastern Kentucky W 84-74 80%     5 - 3 +5.3 +7.5 -2.1
  Dec 10, 2024 4   @ Houston L 42-62 4%     5 - 4 +5.6 -6.4 +6.6
  Dec 21, 2024 252   Georgia St. W 77-57 87%     6 - 4 1 - 0 +12.3 +2.3 +11.3
  Jan 02, 2025 178   @ Appalachian St. W 69-61 60%     7 - 4 2 - 0 +9.7 +8.9 +1.7
  Jan 04, 2025 167   @ Marshall W 58-57 58%     8 - 4 3 - 0 +3.3 -6.2 +9.6
  Jan 09, 2025 201   Texas St. L 73-74 81%     8 - 5 3 - 1 -6.1 -1.1 -5.1
  Jan 11, 2025 98   Arkansas St. L 78-84 58%     8 - 6 3 - 2 -3.8 +12.5 -16.8
  Jan 15, 2025 343   @ Louisiana Monroe W 77-58 90%     9 - 6 4 - 2 +9.5 +8.0 +3.4
  Jan 18, 2025 131   @ South Alabama L 63-64 49%     9 - 7 4 - 3 +3.6 -1.5 +5.0
  Jan 25, 2025 131   South Alabama W 65-55 69%     10 - 7 5 - 3 +9.1 +1.2 +9.2
  Jan 27, 2025 293   Southern Miss W 70-61 91%     11 - 7 6 - 3 -1.4 -9.0 +7.1
  Jan 30, 2025 251   Georgia Southern W 81-74 87%     12 - 7 7 - 3 -0.6 +8.7 -8.9
  Feb 01, 2025 343   Louisiana Monroe W 87-50 95%     13 - 7 8 - 3 +22.0 +16.5 +9.3
  Feb 05, 2025 165   @ James Madison L 61-64 57%     13 - 8 8 - 4 -0.6 -1.8 +0.7
  Feb 08, 2025 160   @ Miami (OH) L 62-69 56%     13 - 9 -4.2 -10.5 +6.4
  Feb 12, 2025 305   @ Louisiana W 74-56 82%     14 - 9 9 - 4 +12.4 +6.5 +7.3
  Feb 15, 2025 98   @ Arkansas St. W 71-70 37%     15 - 9 10 - 4 +8.7 +3.2 +5.5
  Feb 20, 2025 305   Louisiana L 69-72 92%     15 - 10 10 - 5 -14.1 -7.5 -6.6
  Feb 22, 2025 317   Coastal Carolina W 83-66 93%     16 - 10 11 - 5 +4.9 +16.2 -8.6
  Feb 25, 2025 201   @ Texas St. W 74-69 65%     17 - 10 12 - 5 +5.4 +0.9 +4.6
  Feb 28, 2025 293   @ Southern Miss W 70-58 81%     18 - 10 13 - 5 +7.1 -4.1 +10.9
  Mar 08, 2025 278   Old Dominion W 75-59 85%     19 - 10 +9.5 +4.4 +6.0
  Mar 09, 2025 165   James Madison W 79-60 67%     20 - 10 +18.7 +9.1 +10.9
  Mar 10, 2025 98   Arkansas St. W 94-81 48%     21 - 10 +17.9 +18.9 -1.7
Projected Record 21 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 100.0    100.0
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 13.4 5.5 50.7 42.9 0.9
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 13.4 5.5 50.7 42.9 0.9