USC
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.5#32
Expected Predictive Rating+20.1#13
Pace73.4#91
Improvement-1.7#303

Offense
Total Offense+8.8#22
First Shot+7.5#21
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#112
Layup/Dunks+2.7#94
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#148
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#212
Freethrows+5.2#6
Improvement+0.2#164

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#52
First Shot+4.4#51
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#162
Layups/Dunks-1.3#220
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#72
Freethrows+2.7#38
Improvement-1.9#323
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 2.6% 3.2% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 15.1% 17.9% 7.1%
Top 6 Seed 37.6% 42.2% 23.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.0% 86.6% 72.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.7% 86.3% 72.3%
Average Seed 6.8 6.6 7.6
.500 or above 99.2% 99.6% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 76.2% 82.2% 58.7%
Conference Champion 1.5% 1.9% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four6.0% 5.2% 8.2%
First Round80.1% 84.0% 68.5%
Second Round50.0% 54.0% 38.3%
Sweet Sixteen19.2% 21.5% 12.3%
Elite Eight6.8% 7.6% 4.3%
Final Four2.3% 2.6% 1.4%
Championship Game0.7% 0.8% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Washington (Home) - 74.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 28 - 213 - 9
Quad 35 - 017 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 243 Cal Poly W 94-64 96%     1 - 0 +22.4 +3.3 +14.5
  Sun, Nov 9 310 Manhattan W 114-83 98%     2 - 0 +19.8 +15.3 -0.1
  Fri, Nov 14 101 Illinois St. W 87-67 80%     3 - 0 +24.8 +17.6 +7.6
  Thu, Nov 20 146 Troy W 107-106 3OT 92%     4 - 0 -1.2 +1.2 -2.7
  Mon, Nov 24 59 Boise St. W 70-67 66%     5 - 0 +12.3 +4.2 +8.2
  Tue, Nov 25 76 Seton Hall W 83-81 72%     6 - 0 +9.5 +16.3 -6.8
  Wed, Nov 26 82 Arizona St. W 88-75 73%     7 - 0 +20.0 +21.8 -1.1
  Tue, Dec 2 80 @Oregon W 82-77 63%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +15.2 +15.6 -0.2
  Sat, Dec 6 57 Washington W 82-75 75%    
  Tue, Dec 9 262 @San Diego W 90-74 94%    
  Sun, Dec 14 158 Washington St. W 90-73 94%    
  Wed, Dec 17 269 Texas San Antonio W 90-67 98%    
  Sun, Dec 21 225 Brown W 81-61 97%    
  Fri, Jan 2 1 @Michigan L 73-89 7%    
  Mon, Jan 5 10 @Michigan St. L 70-78 22%    
  Fri, Jan 9 95 @Minnesota W 75-70 69%    
  Tue, Jan 13 86 Maryland W 84-74 83%    
  Sat, Jan 17 2 Purdue L 75-81 30%    
  Wed, Jan 21 60 Northwestern W 81-74 74%    
  Sun, Jan 25 36 @Wisconsin L 80-82 41%    
  Wed, Jan 28 27 @Iowa L 72-76 37%    
  Sat, Jan 31 120 Rutgers W 81-68 89%    
  Tue, Feb 3 24 Indiana W 79-77 57%    
  Sun, Feb 8 96 @Penn St. W 83-78 69%    
  Wed, Feb 11 25 @Ohio St. L 77-81 36%    
  Wed, Feb 18 17 Illinois L 81-82 48%    
  Sat, Feb 21 80 Oregon W 83-74 80%    
  Tue, Feb 24 31 @UCLA L 73-76 39%    
  Sat, Feb 28 49 Nebraska W 83-77 70%    
  Wed, Mar 4 57 @Washington W 79-78 54%    
  Sat, Mar 7 31 UCLA W 76-73 61%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.6 3.3 1.3 0.2 8.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.7 4.1 1.5 0.2 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.8 5.2 2.0 0.2 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.7 2.3 0.2 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 5.2 3.4 0.4 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.7 4.3 4.0 0.9 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.3 2.5 4.1 1.3 0.1 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 3.7 1.9 0.1 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 0.3 2.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.3 11th
12th 0.1 1.2 2.1 0.6 0.0 4.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.0 2.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.2 15th
16th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 3.8 6.7 9.8 12.8 14.1 14.9 12.6 9.4 6.6 3.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 90.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 74.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
17-3 32.9% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 11.1% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 5.0% 95.0% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 2.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.7% 100.0% 9.3% 90.7% 2.6 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.7% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 3.3 0.2 0.5 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 100.0%
15-5 6.6% 100.0% 4.5% 95.5% 4.1 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.4% 99.9% 3.2% 96.7% 5.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 3.0 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 12.6% 99.9% 2.3% 97.6% 5.9 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.1 3.9 2.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.9%
12-8 14.9% 98.9% 1.2% 97.7% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.6 4.5 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.2 98.9%
11-9 14.1% 95.2% 0.5% 94.7% 7.9 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.0 3.8 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 95.2%
10-10 12.8% 86.8% 0.6% 86.2% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.6 3.3 2.9 1.0 1.7 86.7%
9-11 9.8% 65.1% 0.3% 64.8% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.3 2.1 0.0 3.4 65.0%
8-12 6.7% 37.1% 37.1% 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 0.1 4.2 37.1%
7-13 3.8% 12.6% 12.6% 11.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 3.3 12.6%
6-14 2.3% 1.5% 1.5% 11.0 0.0 2.2 1.5%
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 83.0% 1.8% 81.2% 6.8 0.6 2.0 4.7 7.8 10.1 12.3 12.1 10.7 9.5 7.8 5.2 0.2 17.0 82.7%