Minnesota
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#96
Expected Predictive Rating+3.0#128
Pace60.3#362
Improvement+4.3#8

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#110
First Shot+2.2#112
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#151
Layup/Dunks+3.5#55
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#273
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#224
Freethrows+1.4#98
Improvement+2.5#33

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#81
First Shot+1.7#117
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#73
Layups/Dunks+2.5#90
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#285
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#197
Freethrows+0.7#136
Improvement+1.8#63
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 2.2% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.2% 2.2% 0.7%
Average Seed 9.8 9.8 10.0
.500 or above 20.8% 21.1% 4.3%
.500 or above in Conference 10.6% 10.7% 4.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.1% 7.0% 13.9%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
First Round1.7% 1.8% 0.7%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Home) - 98.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 52 - 11
Quad 23 - 55 - 17
Quad 32 - 17 - 18
Quad 47 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 362 Gardner-Webb W 87-60 98%     1 - 0 +8.5 +3.0 +4.7
  Sat, Nov 8 337 Alcorn St. W 95-50 96%     2 - 0 +31.0 +16.2 +14.9
  Wed, Nov 12 60 @Missouri L 60-83 28%     2 - 1 -11.2 -1.6 -12.7
  Sat, Nov 15 283 Green Bay W 72-65 OT 92%     3 - 1 -2.6 -9.6 +6.9
  Tue, Nov 18 336 Chicago St. W 66-54 95%     4 - 1 -1.7 -6.2 +5.9
  Sat, Nov 22 95 San Francisco L 65-77 50%     4 - 2 -6.2 +1.2 -8.6
  Thu, Nov 27 81 Stanford L 68-72 46%     4 - 3 +2.9 +5.0 -2.5
  Fri, Nov 28 86 Santa Clara L 75-86 47%     4 - 4 -4.4 +8.7 -13.7
  Wed, Dec 3 29 Indiana W 73-64 29%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +20.6 +10.5 +10.7
  Wed, Dec 10 5 @Purdue L 57-85 5%     5 - 5 1 - 1 -3.2 -2.2 -3.0
  Sun, Dec 14 327 Texas Southern W 89-53 95%     6 - 5 +23.1 +11.3 +12.1
  Sun, Dec 21 225 Campbell W 78-50 88%     7 - 5 +21.0 +13.3 +12.0
  Mon, Dec 29 357 Fairleigh Dickinson W 81-58 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 57 @Northwestern L 65-71 28%    
  Tue, Jan 6 18 Iowa L 61-69 23%    
  Fri, Jan 9 38 USC L 70-74 36%    
  Tue, Jan 13 46 Wisconsin L 69-71 42%    
  Sat, Jan 17 10 @Illinois L 63-80 6%    
  Tue, Jan 20 31 @Ohio St. L 65-76 15%    
  Sat, Jan 24 25 Nebraska L 66-72 29%    
  Wed, Jan 28 46 @Wisconsin L 66-74 22%    
  Sun, Feb 1 126 @Penn St. W 71-70 52%    
  Wed, Feb 4 16 Michigan St. L 61-70 22%    
  Sun, Feb 8 94 Maryland W 71-68 61%    
  Sat, Feb 14 48 @Washington L 64-72 23%    
  Tue, Feb 17 56 @Oregon L 67-73 29%    
  Sat, Feb 21 147 Rutgers W 71-63 76%    
  Tue, Feb 24 1 @Michigan L 60-84 2%    
  Sat, Feb 28 30 UCLA L 65-71 31%    
  Wed, Mar 4 29 @Indiana L 62-74 15%    
  Sat, Mar 7 57 Northwestern L 68-69 49%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.1 2.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 3.4 1.4 0.1 6.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 4.1 3.0 0.3 0.0 8.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 3.9 4.9 1.1 0.0 10.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.5 2.6 0.1 12.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 2.6 7.2 4.1 0.5 0.0 14.5 14th
15th 0.1 1.9 6.4 5.1 1.0 0.0 14.6 15th
16th 0.0 1.4 5.1 4.7 1.0 0.0 12.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.0 0.8 0.1 7.6 17th
18th 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.0 18th
Total 0.4 1.9 5.6 10.5 14.8 17.0 16.4 13.4 9.5 5.5 3.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0%
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 82.5% 1.6% 81.0% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 82.3%
13-7 0.5% 70.6% 70.6% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 70.6%
12-8 1.3% 46.9% 46.9% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 46.9%
11-9 3.0% 20.8% 20.8% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 2.4 20.8%
10-10 5.5% 5.2% 5.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 5.2 5.2%
9-11 9.5% 0.5% 0.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 0.5%
8-12 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 13.4 0.0%
7-13 16.4% 16.4
6-14 17.0% 17.0
5-15 14.8% 14.8
4-16 10.5% 10.5
3-17 5.6% 5.6
2-18 1.9% 1.9
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20
Total 100% 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.1 97.8 2.2%