Minnesota
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#114
Expected Predictive Rating+1.4#145
Pace59.7#357
Improvement-0.9#244

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#163
First Shot+0.5#162
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#202
Layup/Dunks+3.8#56
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#110
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#300
Freethrows-0.6#213
Improvement+0.9#104

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#94
First Shot+0.7#149
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#32
Layups/Dunks-1.7#234
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#184
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#216
Freethrows+2.7#30
Improvement-1.8#318
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 10.1 10.1 n/a
.500 or above 7.2% 7.5% 1.6%
.500 or above in Conference 1.4% 1.5% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 59.7% 59.1% 69.6%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Home) - 94.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 62 - 12
Quad 22 - 54 - 17
Quad 32 - 25 - 19
Quad 47 - 012 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 297   Oral Roberts W 80-57 89%     1 - 0 +12.9 +6.3 +8.4
  Nov 09, 2024 299   Nebraska Omaha W 68-64 89%     2 - 0 -6.1 -6.2 +0.2
  Nov 13, 2024 72   North Texas L 51-54 45%     2 - 1 +1.6 -4.0 +4.9
  Nov 16, 2024 104   Yale W 59-56 57%     3 - 1 +4.4 +2.1 +3.2
  Nov 19, 2024 224   Cleveland St. W 58-47 82%     4 - 1 +4.8 -12.1 +17.7
  Nov 25, 2024 226   Central Michigan W 68-65 82%     5 - 1 -3.3 -1.3 -1.9
  Nov 28, 2024 110   Wichita St. L 66-68 OT 49%     5 - 2 +1.7 -6.2 +7.9
  Nov 29, 2024 86   Wake Forest L 51-57 38%     5 - 3 +0.5 -8.8 +8.4
  Dec 01, 2024 264   Bethune-Cookman W 79-62 86%     6 - 3 +8.5 +11.4 -1.5
  Dec 04, 2024 15   Michigan St. L 72-90 20%     6 - 4 0 - 1 -5.8 +12.2 -19.6
  Dec 09, 2024 45   @ Indiana L 67-82 16%     6 - 5 0 - 2 -1.2 +1.7 -3.2
  Dec 21, 2024 333   Fairleigh Dickinson W 80-63 94%    
  Dec 29, 2024 349   Morgan St. W 80-61 96%    
  Jan 02, 2025 21   Purdue L 63-71 23%    
  Jan 06, 2025 38   Ohio St. L 64-69 30%    
  Jan 10, 2025 36   @ Wisconsin L 62-74 14%    
  Jan 13, 2025 19   @ Maryland L 60-75 9%    
  Jan 16, 2025 20   Michigan L 64-72 23%    
  Jan 21, 2025 44   @ Iowa L 67-78 17%    
  Jan 25, 2025 23   Oregon L 62-70 24%    
  Jan 28, 2025 15   @ Michigan St. L 58-73 8%    
  Feb 01, 2025 84   Washington L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 04, 2025 30   @ Penn St. L 63-75 13%    
  Feb 08, 2025 18   Illinois L 64-73 21%    
  Feb 15, 2025 76   @ USC L 63-70 26%    
  Feb 18, 2025 14   @ UCLA L 54-69 9%    
  Feb 22, 2025 30   Penn St. L 66-72 28%    
  Feb 25, 2025 61   Northwestern L 59-62 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 53   @ Nebraska L 61-71 20%    
  Mar 05, 2025 36   Wisconsin L 65-71 31%    
  Mar 09, 2025 65   @ Rutgers L 63-71 22%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.2 0.1 3.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.6 1.7 0.1 7.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.1 3.6 0.6 0.0 12.0 16th
17th 0.1 1.4 5.0 8.1 5.8 1.4 0.1 21.9 17th
18th 2.7 8.2 13.0 12.4 7.3 2.0 0.2 0.0 45.7 18th
Total 2.7 8.4 14.3 17.8 17.9 14.7 10.6 6.5 3.8 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 12.5% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 85.7% 85.7% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.7%
12-8 0.1% 66.7% 3.2% 63.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.6%
11-9 0.4% 43.0% 2.1% 40.9% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 41.8%
10-10 0.8% 17.5% 17.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 17.5%
9-11 1.9% 4.7% 0.3% 4.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8 4.4%
8-12 3.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.3%
7-13 6.5% 6.5
6-14 10.6% 10.6
5-15 14.7% 14.7
4-16 17.9% 17.9
3-17 17.8% 17.8
2-18 14.3% 14.3
1-19 8.4% 8.4
0-20 2.7% 2.7
Total 100% 0.6% 0.0% 0.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 99.4 0.5%