Chicago St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -14.1 #357
Expected Predictive Rating -19.8 #359
Pace 68.8 #184
Improvement -2.4 #291

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #347 F D C D F
Defense #344 D- F B C- F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #269 0.96 #357 -5.5 #342
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% #5 0.79 #124 +6.4 #5
Three Pointers 29% #359 0.94 #274 -7.3 #350
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #341 -6.3 #343
Freethrows 14.5 #317 76% #78 11.0 #280
Second Chance 29.2% #229 0.90 #337 0.26 #293
Turnovers 16.7% #191
Total Offense -7.6 #347

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #249 1.35 #358 -2.2 #256
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #364 0.75 #173 +3.9 #2
Three Pointers 54% #4 1.03 #204 -6.7 #358
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #325 -5.1 #326
Freethrows 18.1 #226 75% #275 13.6 #255
Second Chance 35.8% #334 1.16 #311 0.41 #348
Turnovers 18.7% #63
Total Defense -6.5 #344

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.3% #360 2.3% #352
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.3% #314 7.4% #315
Possession Length 19.6 #354 15.7 #12
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #236 0.24 #349
Improvement -2.9 #330 +0.6 #147

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.4% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.0% 5.9% 1.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 74.0% 58.2% 84.8%
First Four2.0% 2.4% 1.8%
First Round0.7% 0.9% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Away) - 40.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 30 - 40 - 11
Quad 45 - 155 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 99 @DePaul L 62 - 92 3% -13  0 - 1 -22 -7 F B- F -14 C- F A-
 Thu, Nov 6 28 @Saint Louis L 86 - 108 1% -13  0 - 2 -4 +6 C A- D -7 F A+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 59 @Butler L 66 - 98 2% -24  0 - 3 -19 -5 B+ C F -13 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 151 Illinois-Chicago L 63 - 67 14% +2  0 - 4 -6 -3 C+ F B -4 B+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 71 @Minnesota L 54 - 66 2% -6  0 - 5 -1 -7 F C C- +5 B+ A+ B-
 Thu, Nov 20 23 @Iowa L 54 - 93 1% -18  0 - 6 -20 -1 F C- A+ -24 C F F
 Tue, Nov 25 212 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 90 10% -4  0 - 7 -13 +6 D- A+ F -19 F C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 213 @Youngstown St. L 64 - 87 10% -21  0 - 8 -23 -9 F D B- -14 F B+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 90 @Illinois St. L 53 - 95 2% -30  0 - 9 -33 -13 F B F -22 F F B
 Sun, Dec 14 268 @Loyola Chicago W 84 - 75 15% +6  1 - 9 +6 +6 C- D+ C- -0 A+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 129 @Bowling Green L 55 - 76 5% -11  1 - 10 -16 -12 F D A- -4 D- B- C
 Sat, Dec 20 37 @Indiana L 58 - 78 1% -18  1 - 11 -4 -7 D+ F A+ +3 D B A+
 Fri, Jan 2 326 Wagner L 72 - 79 47% -4  1 - 12 0 - 1 -20 -2 F F A+ -19 D F F
 Sun, Jan 4 222 LIU Brooklyn L 55 - 74 24% -11  1 - 13 0 - 2 -26 -16 F F A+ -11 F C- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 348 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 63 - 70 32% -9  1 - 14 0 - 3 -16 -10 F F F -7 D D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 339 @Stonehill L 82 - 85 OT 29% -3  1 - 15 0 - 4 -11 +5 C- A- B+ -17 F F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 278 Le Moyne L 57 - 72 33% +0  1 - 16 0 - 5 -25 -20 D F F -5 C- F C+
 Mon, Jan 19 331 New Haven L 56 - 62 48% +3  1 - 17 0 - 6 -20 -10 D+ F C- -11 F F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 358 @St. Francis (PA) L 73 - 75 40%
 Sun, Jan 25 306 @Mercyhurst L 63 - 72 20%
 Thu, Jan 29 358 St. Francis (PA) W 76 - 72 63%
 Sat, Jan 31 306 Mercyhurst L 66 - 69 39%
 Thu, Feb 5 277 @Central Connecticut St. L 67 - 78 15%
 Sat, Feb 7 331 @New Haven L 63 - 70 27%
 Thu, Feb 12 339 Stonehill W 68 - 67 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 278 @Le Moyne L 69 - 80 17%
 Thu, Feb 19 348 Fairleigh Dickinson W 72 - 71 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 277 Central Connecticut St. L 70 - 75 33%
 Thu, Feb 26 222 @LIU Brooklyn L 67 - 81 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 326 @Wagner L 69 - 76 27%
Totals 5 - 25 4 - 14 -14 -8 F D C -7 D- F B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.2 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.4 6th
7th 0.4 2.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.7 5.1 1.2 0.1 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 6.8 9.3 3.0 0.2 21.1 9th
10th 1.4 6.0 13.4 18.7 14.8 4.3 0.4 0.0 58.9 10th
Total 1.4 6.0 13.5 20.3 22.1 17.7 10.9 5.1 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0% 0.0
10-6 0.1% 17.4% 17.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
9-7 0.7% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
8-8 2.2% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.1 2.1
7-9 5.1% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.2 4.8
6-10 10.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.3 10.6
5-11 17.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.5 17.3
4-12 22.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 21.7
3-13 20.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 20.0
2-14 13.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 13.4
1-15 6.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.9
0-16 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 16.0 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%