Chicago St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -13.9 353
Expected Predictive Rating -14.7 353
Pace 67.8 208
Improvement -0.2 189

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- #339 F+ D C+ D+ F
Defense D- #344 F+ F+ B D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 326 48% 359 -6.8 353
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 5 37% 192 +5.4 10
Three Pointers 32% 343 32% 273 -5.8 340
1st FG Attempt 0.88 354 -7.2 354
Second Chance 28.3% 243 0.89 335 0.25 313
Turnovers 15.9% 119
Freethrows 0.27 303 75% 97 0.20 264
Total Offense -6.9 339

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 276 69% 365 -2.3 261
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% 364 40% 249 +3.7 2
Three Pointers 54% 3 35% 248 -8.0 361
1st FG Attempt 1.15 354 -6.5 354
Second Chance 36.5% 349 1.10 291 0.40 346
Turnovers 19.2% 59
Freethrows 0.35 302 76% 350 0.26 325
Total Defense -7.0 344

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -2.3 359 +1.1 349
Shot Type Accuracy -4.9 332 +5.2 347
Possession Length 19.7 356 15.4 2
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 281 0.24 345
Improvement -1.1 #252 +0.9 #128

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 2% 3% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 65% 52% 79%
First Four2% 3% 2%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Stonehill (Home) - 49.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 40 - 11
Quad 46 - 146 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 98 @DePaul L 62 - 92 3% -19  0% 0 - 1 F -22 F+ -10 F B- D F+ -11 D+ F C+
 Thu, Nov 6 22 @Saint Louis L 86 - 108 1% -13  5% 0 - 2 C- -2 B- +4 C+ C D+ C- -3 D- A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 75 @Butler L 66 - 98 2% -24  0% 0 - 3 F -21 F+ -9 C+ C F F -11 F+ F A-
 Sat, Nov 15 137 Illinois-Chicago L 63 - 67 13% +2  50% 0 - 4 D+ -6 D -5 C D B+ C -1 B+ F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 71 @Minnesota L 54 - 66 2% -6  6% 0 - 5 C -1 F -10 F+ C C- B+ +7 B+ A B-
 Thu, Nov 20 25 @Iowa L 54 - 93 1% -18  0% 0 - 6 F -20 D -6 F D+ A F -20 C F D-
 Tue, Nov 25 242 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 90 13% -4  28% 0 - 7 F+ -15 C+ +3 D- A+ F F -18 F C A+
 Fri, Nov 28 205 @Youngstown St. L 64 - 87 10% -21  2% 0 - 8 F -23 F -11 F D B- F -11 F C+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 94 @Illinois St. L 53 - 95 3% -30  0% 0 - 9 F -34 F -15 F B F F -21 F F B-
 Sun, Dec 14 277 @Loyola Chicago W 84 - 75 17% +6  74% 1 - 9 B- +5 B- +4 D+ D+ C C+ +1 A+ F A
 Tue, Dec 16 158 @Bowling Green L 55 - 76 7% -11  0% 1 - 10 F -18 F -15 F D- B D+ -5 D C D
 Sat, Dec 20 29 @Indiana L 58 - 78 1% -18  0% 1 - 11 C- -2 F+ -9 C- F A- B+ +7 D+ B- A
 Fri, Jan 2 331 Wagner L 72 - 79 50% -4  2% 1 - 12 0 - 1 F -21 D -5 F F+ A+ F -17 D F F
 Sun, Jan 4 207 LIU Brooklyn L 55 - 74 22% -11  0% 1 - 13 0 - 2 F -25 F -17 F F A- D- -9 F D A
 Thu, Jan 8 329 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 63 - 70 28% -9  0% 1 - 14 0 - 3 F+ -15 F -13 D F F+ C- -3 D+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 330 @Stonehill L 82 - 85 OT 28% -3  29% 1 - 15 0 - 4 D -11 B- +5 D+ A- A- F -16 F F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 303 Le Moyne L 57 - 72 39% +0  66% 1 - 16 0 - 5 F -26 F -23 D F F C- -3 C- F C
 Mon, Jan 19 334 New Haven L 56 - 62 51% +3  77% 1 - 17 0 - 6 F -20 F -13 D+ F C- D- -9 D F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 355 @St. Francis (PA) L 60 - 81 40% -13  0% 1 - 18 0 - 7 F -32 F -19 F F C- F -14 F B+ C+
 Sun, Jan 25 304 @Mercyhurst L 59 - 61 21% -3  11% 1 - 19 0 - 8 D+ -7 D -5 F D A+ C- -3 F C A
 Sat, Jan 31 304 Mercyhurst W 78 - 74 40% +2  62% 2 - 19 1 - 8 D+ -7 C+ +3 C+ C+ B+ F+ -10 F A+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 294 @Central Connecticut St. L 67 - 78 19% -3  24% 2 - 20 1 - 9 F+ -16 D+ -4 D- F A+ F -13 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 334 @New Haven W 63 - 57 29% +6  85% 3 - 20 2 - 9 C- -2 C- -2 C F A+ C+ +1 D B- C-
 Mon, Feb 9 355 St. Francis (PA) W 80 - 75 63% +7  87% 4 - 20 3 - 9 D- -12 D -6 F B+ C D -7 D F A+
 Thu, Feb 12 330 Stonehill L 65 - 66 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 303 @Le Moyne L 71 - 80 21%
 Thu, Feb 19 329 Fairleigh Dickinson L 71 - 72 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 294 Central Connecticut St. L 71 - 74 38%
 Thu, Feb 26 207 @LIU Brooklyn L 66 - 80 9%
 Sat, Feb 28 331 @Wagner L 69 - 75 29%
Totals 6 - 24 5 - 13 -14 D- -7 F+ D C+ D- -7 F+ F+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- F+ C- D+ D- 33% 36% 32% F F+ C- D- D C+ D B- D+ D- F C- C- D- 35% 10% 54% D- F+ F+ D+ F+ B D D- D-
0.99 48% 37% 32% -5 -2 0.88 28% 0.9 .25 16% .27 75% .20 1.19 69% 40% 35% +5 +1 1.15 36% 1.1 .40 19% .35 76% .20
Nov
3		 DePaul F+ F A- F F+ 17% 50% 33% F F C A- B- D A C- A- F+ D- F A C- 47% 10% 43% F D+ F D- F C+ F C+ F
0.85 13% 46% 25% -8 -5 0.75 29% 1.1 .32 22% .41 70% .28 1.26 67% 60% 27% +2 +2 1.10 41% 1.3 .54 18% .59 69% .40
Nov
6		 Saint Louis B- F A C+ B 32% 38% 30% F C+ C+ C- C D+ A+ A- A+ C- F A+ F D- 45% 4% 51% C- D- A A+ A+ B- F F F
1.00 37% 48% 33% -3 -3 0.90 28% 0.8 .23 18% .50 80% .40 1.26 76% 0% 43% +14 +3 1.35 25% 0.6 .14 18% .47 91% .42
Nov
11		 Butler F+ C+ C+ A B 42% 40% 19% F C+ F A+ C F C+ F C- F B+ A+ F F 26% 2% 72% C- F+ C- F F A- F C+ F
0.90 59% 38% 40% +2 -2 1.02 19% 1.3 .26 22% .23 62% .14 1.34 50% 0% 44% +8 +1 1.21 38% 1.9 .72 19% .51 70% .35
Nov
15		 Illinois-Chicago D A- C D- B- 33% 30% 37% F+ C C- D- D B+ C- C C C D A+ A+ A 53% 10% 38% F B+ F F F A- F D+ F
0.99 67% 36% 29% 0 -2 0.98 34% 0.8 .29 17% .31 75% .23 1.06 62% 25% 13% -11 +2 0.85 43% 1.4 .60 22% .57 75% .42
Nov
18		 Minnesota F D+ C+ F D 31% 47% 22% F F+ D A- C C- D- F F B+ D+ D- A B+ 29% 17% 54% B+ B+ F A+ A B- F F F
0.86 53% 39% 18% -6 -4 0.82 23% 1.0 .23 19% .20 60% .12 1.05 67% 43% 27% -2 0 0.98 40% 0.5 .20 18% .52 78% .41
Nov
20		 Iowa D F A+ F D- 32% 48% 20% F F D+ D+ D+ A C- A C+ F F A+ B C+ 42% 2% 56% F C F F F D- C- D+ D+
0.88 36% 52% 11% -7 -4 0.80 24% 0.9 .21 18% .30 80% .24 1.52 81% 0% 32% +7 +3 1.22 46% 2.0 .92 11% .35 79% .28
Nov
25		 Purdue Fort Wayne C+ F+ A+ D+ C- 25% 38% 38% F D- A+ A A+ F B+ B+ A- F F F F F 48% 4% 48% F F F A+ C A+ F+ F F
1.13 50% 50% 33% +2 -3 1.00 50% 1.3 .63 25% .31 81% .25 1.32 74% 50% 52% +21 +3 1.50 30% 0.7 .22 22% .30 81% .24
Nov
28		 Youngstown St. F D+ D F F 27% 51% 22% F F C F D B- F+ A D F F F F F 24% 7% 69% C F A F C+ C- C+ C- C+
0.91 57% 31% 27% -6 -5 0.80 32% 0.8 .24 17% .29 82% .24 1.24 77% 75% 42% +16 +1 1.35 23% 1.3 .29 18% .24 71% .17
Dec
6		 Illinois St. F D- F F F 24% 41% 35% F F A- C- B F D+ A+ B+ F F A+ F+ F 34% 4% 62% F F F A+ F B- B- A+ A-
0.79 50% 15% 24% -17 -4 0.61 34% 0.9 .32 22% .29 93% .27 1.42 89% 0% 39% +14 +2 1.34 55% 0.9 .47 18% .27 53% .15
Dec
14		 Loyola Chicago B- B- D- A C 33% 40% 27% F D+ A F D+ C A+ A+ A+ C+ A A+ A A+ 23% 4% 72% C A+ F F F A F B+ D-
1.16 59% 33% 43% +2 -3 1.00 39% 0.7 .28 12% .46 90% .41 1.04 45% 0% 26% -13 +1 0.79 51% 1.1 .58 24% .40 64% .25
Dec
16		 Bowling Green F F F F+ F 30% 48% 22% F F C+ F D- B A+ F A D+ F+ A+ A- C- 58% 2% 40% F D B+ F C D C- C+ C
0.82 33% 25% 27% -16 -4 0.62 30% 0.7 .22 16% .48 63% .30 1.13 67% 0% 29% +1 +4 1.12 23% 1.0 .23 15% .31 72% .23
Dec
20		 Indiana F+ C- B- F C 34% 37% 29% D- C- C F F A- F A+ F B+ F A+ D- D- 15% 4% 81% B+ D+ F+ A+ B- A C+ A+ A
0.84 50% 41% 24% -6 -2 0.85 26% 0.5 .14 13% .10 100% .10 1.14 100% 0% 39% +11 0 1.26 37% 0.8 .29 19% .32 61% .20
Jan
2		 Wagner D F F A+ F 47% 26% 26% D F C- F F+ A+ A- A+ A+ F B B- F D- 45% 23% 32% C D D- F F F F D F
1.12 36% 29% 50% -6 0 0.89 30% 0.8 .23 8% .46 85% .39 1.23 48% 36% 47% +1 0 1.04 36% 1.3 .48 12% .54 73% .39
Jan
4		 LIU Brooklyn F F D F F 55% 23% 23% C F C- F F A- D F+ D- D- C- F D F 43% 6% 51% F F D C- D A B C- B-
0.85 41% 33% 25% -13 +1 0.77 33% 0.4 .14 14% .29 63% .18 1.14 60% 100% 38% +8 +2 1.21 39% 1.0 .39 26% .25 67% .17
Jan
8		 Fairleigh Dickinson F F A+ A- F+ 40% 11% 49% B D F F F F+ D+ A+ C+ C- F F B D+ 24% 10% 67% D+ D+ D C+ C- B+ F D F
0.95 39% 60% 41% 0 +1 1.04 10% 0.7 .07 20% .32 82% .26 1.06 70% 50% 29% -1 0 1.00 34% 0.8 .29 21% .65 74% .48
Jan
10		 Stonehill B- F B- A- C- 39% 35% 26% F D+ F A+ A- A- B- A+ A- F F A+ D- F 33% 10% 58% D F F D+ F B- F C- F
1.12 45% 40% 40% -2 -2 0.95 15% 2.6 .39 8% .31 81% .25 1.16 76% 20% 37% +7 +1 1.17 46% 0.9 .43 23% .37 71% .27
Jan
17		 Le Moyne F F D A D- 53% 20% 27% B- D F D+ F F F F F C- D- F A+ C 42% 6% 52% F+ C- A F F C F+ F+ F
0.83 44% 30% 43% -5 +1 0.94 12% 1.0 .12 20% .16 56% .09 1.05 65% 100% 24% -1 +2 1.04 18% 2.2 .39 20% .40 77% .31
Jan
19		 New Haven F D+ B- C- D+ 48% 26% 26% D+ D+ D+ F F C- F C- F D- D+ A+ C+ C- 41% 3% 56% F D F C+ F A+ F F F
0.95 55% 42% 33% -1 0 1.00 26% 0.5 .13 17% .16 75% .12 1.06 63% 0% 32% -1 +3 1.05 46% 0.8 .39 29% .34 100% .34
Jan
23		 St. Francis (PA) F F F C+ F 26% 38% 36% F F B- F F C- F F F F F B F F 28% 22% 50% C F C- A+ B+ C+ D F F
0.90 50% 25% 37% -5 -3 0.85 37% 0.7 .26 19% .20 45% .09 1.21 92% 30% 48% +18 -1 1.37 27% 0.7 .18 19% .30 88% .26
Jan
25		 Mercyhurst D F F A- D- 25% 27% 48% F F D- C- D A+ F C F C- F C F F 16% 34% 50% A- F B- D+ C A B+ C B
1.02 42% 15% 39% -6 -2 0.85 29% 1.0 .29 10% .21 73% .15 1.06 71% 40% 41% +8 -3 1.11 24% 1.1 .28 21% .15 71% .11
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Mercyhurst C+ F D A+ B 29% 29% 42% F C+ C+ C+ C+ B+ A+ F A F+ F D- C F 37% 25% 37% F+ F F+ A+ A+ D+ D C D
1.17 46% 31% 47% +3 -2 1.04 36% 1.1 .39 15% .53 63% .34 1.11 79% 46% 32% +9 -1 1.18 32% 0.5 .15 15% .25 71% .18
Feb
5		 Central Connecticut St. D+ B F D D 35% 24% 41% F+ D- F F F A+ D+ A- C F F F D F 24% 17% 59% F+ F F F F A+ F F F
1.07 63% 23% 32% -3 -1 0.94 17% 0.7 .11 5% .24 86% .20 1.25 80% 57% 38% +12 -1 1.24 39% 1.3 .52 24% .40 89% .36
Feb
7		 New Haven C- F+ A+ C+ B 26% 43% 30% F C F F F A+ C B C+ C+ B A+ D- D+ 34% 5% 61% F D A+ F B- C- C B C
1.07 50% 55% 36% +6 -4 1.07 19% 0.3 .06 8% .28 80% .22 0.97 53% 0% 37% 0 +2 1.05 10% 1.7 .16 19% .25 67% .17
Feb
9		 St. Francis (PA) D D+ F F F 38% 24% 38% D- F B+ C+ B+ C A+ A- A+ D F F A+ C- 32% 7% 61% F D F F F A+ F D- F
1.13 59% 27% 29% -5 -1 0.91 40% 1.2 .49 18% .57 79% .45 1.06 93% 67% 19% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.2 .41 25% .53 75% .40



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.0 1.3 6th
7th 0.9 2.9 0.4 4.2 7th
8th 0.1 4.4 11.4 4.1 0.1 20.1 8th
9th 6.3 18.6 8.2 0.4 33.5 9th
10th 9.3 20.8 9.5 0.8 40.4 10th
Total 9.3 27.2 32.5 21.4 8.1 1.5 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.1% 0.1
8-8 1.5% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.1 1.4
7-9 8.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.3 7.8
6-10 21.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.6 20.8
5-11 32.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.8 31.7
4-12 27.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.4 26.9
3-13 9.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.2
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 16.0 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.2%