Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#144
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#192
Pace71.3#115
Improvement-1.0#248

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#75
First Shot+3.9#72
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#172
Layup/Dunks+3.3#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#340
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#67
Freethrows+0.3#164
Improvement+0.3#151

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#285
First Shot-1.6#228
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#312
Layups/Dunks+0.0#167
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#325
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#252
Freethrows+2.2#51
Improvement-1.3#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.6% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.3 12.9
.500 or above 21.2% 36.9% 16.2%
.500 or above in Conference 26.7% 33.9% 24.4%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.0% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 13.6% 9.9% 14.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.1% 1.6% 0.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Away) - 24.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 72 - 10
Quad 35 - 77 - 17
Quad 46 - 113 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 74   Santa Clara L 78-85 25%     0 - 1 +0.5 +4.8 -3.9
  Nov 16, 2024 181   Loyola Marymount W 77-71 68%     1 - 1 +1.9 +4.3 -2.4
  Nov 22, 2024 110   Wichita St. L 63-88 39%     1 - 2 -21.3 -13.9 -4.9
  Nov 25, 2024 248   Quinnipiac W 81-67 79%     2 - 2 +6.2 -4.4 +8.8
  Nov 27, 2024 152   Umass Lowell W 93-90 63%     3 - 2 +0.3 +20.9 -20.4
  Dec 02, 2024 307   Jackson St. W 74-66 86%     4 - 2 -3.2 +2.6 -5.3
  Dec 05, 2024 59   @ San Francisco L 61-78 14%     4 - 3 -4.7 -3.0 -1.8
  Dec 08, 2024 360   Chicago St. W 85-62 94%     5 - 3 +5.8 +10.3 -3.4
  Dec 15, 2024 155   @ Illinois St. L 77-81 40%     5 - 4 -0.8 +13.6 -14.9
  Dec 18, 2024 158   Wofford L 71-74 64%     5 - 5 -6.0 +1.9 -8.2
  Dec 22, 2024 102   @ Grand Canyon L 77-84 24%    
  Dec 31, 2024 169   @ Fordham L 78-80 43%    
  Jan 03, 2025 97   Saint Joseph's L 77-79 43%    
  Jan 08, 2025 89   St. Bonaventure L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 14, 2025 58   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 68-80 14%    
  Jan 18, 2025 214   @ Richmond W 77-76 50%    
  Jan 22, 2025 165   La Salle W 82-78 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 137   @ George Washington L 78-82 37%    
  Jan 28, 2025 58   Virginia Commonwealth L 71-77 30%    
  Jan 31, 2025 41   Dayton L 72-79 25%    
  Feb 04, 2025 190   @ Massachusetts L 80-81 47%    
  Feb 07, 2025 97   @ Saint Joseph's L 74-82 24%    
  Feb 11, 2025 87   George Mason L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 14, 2025 106   @ Loyola Chicago L 73-80 27%    
  Feb 22, 2025 98   Rhode Island L 80-82 44%    
  Feb 25, 2025 122   @ Davidson L 74-79 33%    
  Mar 01, 2025 106   Loyola Chicago L 76-77 48%    
  Mar 04, 2025 41   @ Dayton L 69-82 12%    
  Mar 08, 2025 199   Duquesne W 75-70 69%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 2.9 0.8 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.6 1.8 0.1 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.6 3.3 0.5 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.9 5.1 1.3 0.0 9.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.9 5.6 2.8 0.2 10.6 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 5.0 4.3 0.6 0.0 10.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 4.1 4.9 1.3 0.0 11.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.0 1.9 0.1 10.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.2 14th
15th 0.2 0.8 2.1 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 7.4 15th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.7 5.6 9.0 12.7 14.3 14.8 13.3 10.3 7.4 4.7 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-3 83.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 40.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 24.0% 12.0% 12.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6%
15-3 0.2% 11.4% 11.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.5% 10.5% 10.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-5 1.2% 11.5% 11.5% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-6 2.3% 6.7% 6.7% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2
11-7 4.7% 3.2% 3.2% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.6
10-8 7.4% 2.1% 2.1% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.3
9-9 10.3% 1.6% 1.6% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.1
8-10 13.3% 0.7% 0.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.2
7-11 14.8% 0.4% 0.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.7
6-12 14.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.2
5-13 12.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.6
4-14 9.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.0
3-15 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.6
2-16 2.7% 2.7
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%