Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.6 22
Expected Predictive Rating +19.8 13
Pace 76.8 21
Improvement -0.4 200

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- #31 A+ B- C+ C A
Defense B+ #20 A A- C- C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 26 65% 52 +7.1 11
2 Pt. Jumpers 6% 365 39% 142 -5.5 364
Three Pointers 48% 39 42% 1 +9.5 4
1st FG Attempt 1.24 1 +11.1 1
Second Chance 32.8% 111 1.07 108 0.35 92
Turnovers 15.9% 117
Freethrows 0.31 180 73% 151 0.23 160
Total Offense +8.6 31

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 271 49% 15 +4.8 41
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 74 35% 85 -0.6 242
Three Pointers 40% 195 28% 9 +3.8 41
1st FG Attempt 0.86 7 +8.0 7
Second Chance 25.7% 31 0.86 16 0.22 15
Turnovers 15.9% 242
Freethrows 0.32 230 73% 241 0.23 242
Total Defense +8.0 20

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +2.3 2 -0.6 77
Shot Type Accuracy +8.2 8 -7.3 6
Possession Length 14.6 7 18.0 294
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 7 0.16 122
Improvement +0.4 #150 -0.8 #242

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 1% 1% 0%
Top 4 Seed 14% 15% 1%
Top 6 Seed 41% 42% 12%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96% 96% 89%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 89% 89% 75%
Average Seed 6.8 6.8 8.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 98% 99% 92%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 5%
First Round95% 95% 88%
Second Round66% 67% 47%
Sweet Sixteen26% 26% 12%
Elite Eight10% 10% 5%
Final Four3% 3% 2%
Championship Game1% 1% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Away) - 97.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 02 - 0
Quad 26 - 29 - 2
Quad 39 - 018 - 2
Quad 412 - 030 - 2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 230 Southeast Missouri St. W 92 - 67 97% +10  75% 1 - 0 A +18 B +6 B C C- A +10 A A+ F
 Thu, Nov 6 353 Chicago St. W 108 - 86 99% +13  90% 2 - 0 B- +5 B- +4 A F B- C- -3 C- C+ B-
 Mon, Nov 10 246 Lindenwood W 109 - 66 98% +22  98% 3 - 0 A+ +35 A+ +17 A+ A+ F A +13 C B- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 68 Grand Canyon W 78 - 64 86% +11  93% 4 - 0 A +19 B- +4 A+ C- F A+ +15 A+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 242 Purdue Fort Wayne W 91 - 60 98% +19  97% 5 - 0 A+ +23 A- +11 A+ C- D A +12 A+ C C+
 Thu, Nov 27 44 Santa Clara W 71 - 70 67% -3  11% 6 - 0 B+ +13 C- -1 B- D- A+ A+ +14 A+ A- B-
 Fri, Nov 28 74 Stanford L 77 - 78 80% +6  77% 6 - 1 B- +7 C+ +3 F+ A A B- +4 A- A- D+
 Tue, Dec 2 151 @Loyola Marymount W 91 - 70 89% +12  94% 7 - 1 A+ +24 A +11 A+ A+ F A +11 A- B C
 Sun, Dec 7 296 Central Michigan W 107 - 65 99% +23  96% 8 - 1 A+ +31 A+ +26 A A+ A+ B +6 C+ A- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 107 San Francisco W 85 - 75 92% +1  50% 9 - 1 B+ +11 B+ +9 A C- C+ B- +2 B A- D-
 Wed, Dec 17 227 Bethune-Cookman W 112 - 53 97% +31  94% 10 - 1 A+ +52 A+ +24 A+ A+ D+ A+ +22 A+ B+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 327 New Hampshire W 93 - 79 99% +3  65% 11 - 1 C +1 B+ +8 B C- A D- -8 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 136 Saint Joseph's W 102 - 79 94% +12  86% 12 - 1 1 - 0 A +22 A+ +36 A+ D+ A F -13 B- F F
 Wed, Jan 7 51 @Virginia Commonwealth W 71 - 62 61% +6  97% 13 - 1 2 - 0 A+ +23 D -5 C- F B- A+ +28 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 226 @La Salle W 84 - 72 94% +12  99% 14 - 1 3 - 0 B+ +12 A +13 A+ D+ F+ C -1 B B F
 Wed, Jan 14 157 Fordham W 78 - 56 96% +12  89% 15 - 1 4 - 0 A +19 A+ +15 A+ B+ A+ B+ +7 A A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 128 Richmond W 88 - 63 94% +19  97% 16 - 1 5 - 0 A+ +24 A +11 A D A- A +13 A+ D+ C-
 Tue, Jan 20 108 @Duquesne W 81 - 77 82% +5  80% 17 - 1 6 - 0 B +11 C +1 B A- D- A- +9 A+ D- C+
 Fri, Jan 23 134 @St. Bonaventure W 97 - 62 87% +25  98% 18 - 1 7 - 0 A+ +40 A+ +21 A+ B- A- A+ +18 A+ A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 27 84 George Washington W 79 - 76 88% -5  11% 19 - 1 8 - 0 B- +7 D+ -3 C+ C C- A- +10 A- A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 30 97 Dayton W 102 - 71 90% +18  99% 20 - 1 9 - 0 A+ +33 A+ +26 A+ A+ A B+ +6 C+ B+ A-
 Tue, Feb 3 111 @Davidson W 91 - 82 83% -1  39% 21 - 1 10 - 0 A- +16 A+ +19 A- A+ A- D+ -4 A F F
 Sat, Feb 7 226 La Salle W 82 - 58 97% +7  82% 22 - 1 11 - 0 A +18 B- +4 A+ F B- A+ +13 A A+ B-
 Fri, Feb 13 277 @Loyola Chicago W 88 - 68 97%
 Tue, Feb 17 116 @Rhode Island W 81 - 70 84%
 Fri, Feb 20 51 Virginia Commonwealth W 87 - 78 79%
 Tue, Feb 24 97 @Dayton W 81 - 73 79%
 Sat, Feb 28 108 Duquesne W 90 - 74 93%
 Wed, Mar 4 277 Loyola Chicago W 91 - 65 99%
 Sat, Mar 7 89 @George Mason W 79 - 71 77%
Totals 28 - 2 17 - 1 +17 A- +9 A+ B- C+ B+ +8 A A- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B C+ A+ A 45% 6% 48% A A+ C+ C+ B- C+ C C+ C B+ A- B- A A 36% 24% 40% B- A B+ A- A- C- C- C- C-
1.21 65% 39% 42% +8 +2 1.24 33% 1.1 .35 16% .31 73% .23 0.97 49% 35% 28% -7 -1 0.86 26% 0.9 .22 16% .32 73% .23
Nov
3		 Southeast Missouri St. B A+ F+ D B- 49% 5% 46% A B A F C C- F+ A- D+ A B- B+ A B+ 25% 42% 32% A+ A A+ A+ A+ F F+ D+ F+
1.19 71% 33% 31% +4 +3 1.16 39% 0.9 .33 19% .34 81% .27 0.87 53% 32% 26% -7 -4 0.80 15% 0.7 .11 12% .38 69% .26
Nov
6		 Chicago St. B- A F A+ A 45% 4% 51% A- A F F F B- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ F C C- 32% 38% 30% B- C- C B- C+ B- F D- F
1.26 76% 0% 43% +14 +3 1.35 25% 0.6 .14 18% .47 91% .42 1.00 37% 48% 33% -3 -3 0.90 28% 0.8 .23 18% .50 80% .40
Nov
10		 Lindenwood A+ A+ F A+ A+ 58% 2% 40% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ C A+ A C- B- A- C- 42% 27% 31% B C B C B- A+ F A+ D
1.35 76% 0% 50% +19 +4 1.48 48% 1.7 .83 25% .51 71% .36 0.81 60% 31% 27% -5 -1 0.92 28% 1.1 .31 30% .46 54% .25
Nov
15		 Grand Canyon B- B- F A+ A 46% 6% 48% A+ A+ B- F+ C- F C- A+ B- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 36% 20% 44% B- A+ B- A+ A+ C- D+ F F+
1.04 58% 0% 40% +2 +2 1.12 29% 0.9 .26 24% .30 82% .25 0.86 50% 9% 25% -15 0 0.73 30% 0.5 .14 16% .35 86% .30
Nov
21		 Purdue Fort Wayne A- A A+ A+ A+ 35% 6% 59% B- A+ A+ F C- D B+ A+ A+ A A F+ A+ A+ 28% 17% 56% B A+ B- D C C+ C F D+
1.29 72% 67% 43% +15 +2 1.35 48% 0.7 .35 23% .31 94% .29 0.85 47% 44% 20% -14 0 0.74 19% 1.1 .21 16% .24 79% .19
Nov
27		 Santa Clara C- C A+ D C+ 45% 6% 49% A- B- C- F D- A+ C- F D- A+ A A+ A+ A+ 53% 8% 39% F A+ A- B A- B- F F F
1.00 59% 67% 29% -1 +2 1.04 29% 0.8 .23 16% .32 63% .20 0.99 48% 25% 25% -11 +3 0.84 31% 1.0 .31 17% .37 82% .31
Nov
28		 Stanford C+ F F F F 53% 10% 37% A+ F+ A- B+ A A A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ F A 47% 7% 45% D+ A- B+ B+ A- D+ D- B- D+
1.06 44% 20% 26% -13 +2 0.80 34% 1.2 .42 15% .46 93% .42 1.08 31% 0% 48% -6 +2 0.95 30% 0.8 .26 14% .38 71% .27
Dec
2		 Loyola Marymount A A A+ C- A 52% 4% 45% A+ A+ A+ B A+ F D+ B+ C- A B D- A+ A+ 40% 20% 40% D- A- B+ C+ B C C D+ C-
1.18 66% 50% 32% +3 +3 1.14 49% 1.1 .54 23% .25 80% .20 0.91 55% 45% 23% -7 0 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 18% .27 71% .19
Dec
7		 Central Michigan A+ A- B+ A- 55% 0% 45% A+ A A- A+ A+ A+ C- B- C B A+ F D- C 30% 30% 40% B+ C+ B A A- C+ F C F
1.55 69% 38% +9 +4 1.28 43% 1.5 .63 6% .34 73% .25 0.94 36% 50% 37% -1 -2 0.96 25% 0.9 .22 19% .41 70% .28
Dec
13		 San Francisco B+ A D+ D+ A- 52% 12% 37% A A A F C- C+ A+ C A+ B- C+ F A+ B- 17% 19% 64% A B A C A- D- C- C C-
1.21 70% 33% 32% +5 +2 1.15 36% 0.7 .25 13% .41 72% .29 1.06 56% 70% 26% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.1 .27 13% .34 71% .24
Dec
17		 Bethune-Cookman A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 3% 48% A A+ C+ A+ A+ D+ B F C A+ A A+ A+ A+ 40% 29% 31% B A+ A- B B+ C D C- D
1.45 64% 50% 57% +20 +3 1.48 34% 1.7 .59 17% .36 65% .23 0.68 45% 19% 12% -21 -1 0.58 21% 0.9 .19 18% .36 70% .25
Dec
21		 New Hampshire B+ C- F A+ B 40% 11% 49% B B C+ D- C- A A+ C- A+ D- B- F F F 31% 20% 49% A- F A+ C- A+ F C- A C+
1.25 57% 17% 42% +3 +1 1.11 34% 0.9 .29 11% .47 74% .35 1.07 50% 50% 41% +6 -1 1.12 11% 1.0 .11 12% .28 61% .17
Dec
31		 Saint Joseph's A+ A+ F A+ A+ 39% 7% 54% A+ A+ D+ C- D+ A D F+ D F B A+ D C+ 37% 21% 42% B+ B- D+ F F F F C F
1.56 76% 25% 62% +29 +2 1.63 28% 1.0 .28 11% .19 64% .12 1.21 53% 18% 36% -5 0 0.92 36% 1.4 .49 9% .40 75% .30
Jan
7		 Virginia Commonwealth D D+ C+ F D 59% 8% 32% A+ C- F D- F B- D D+ D- A+ A+ A+ A A+ 50% 11% 39% D A+ A+ A+ A+ C C+ F D
0.92 51% 40% 26% -7 +3 0.93 15% 0.8 .13 16% .25 69% .17 0.81 39% 0% 27% -17 +2 0.71 20% 0.3 .07 16% .37 83% .31
Jan
10		 La Salle A A A A+ A+ 56% 4% 40% A+ A+ B- F D+ F+ A+ B+ A+ C F D A+ B- 36% 36% 29% A B C A B F F B+ F
1.24 68% 50% 50% +16 +3 1.40 32% 0.9 .28 21% .41 73% .30 1.07 69% 44% 8% -5 -2 0.87 33% 0.8 .26 10% .64 67% .43
Jan
14		 Fordham A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 33% 8% 59% A A+ C A+ B+ A+ C C+ C B+ A A- A- A 35% 18% 47% C- A C- A+ A+ F D+ D- D
1.28 75% 50% 38% +10 +1 1.24 28% 1.4 .38 10% .25 71% .18 0.92 47% 33% 26% -10 0 0.82 36% 0.4 .16 13% .25 77% .19
Jan
17		 Richmond A A+ A+ C- A 33% 15% 52% B+ A B F D A- A A A+ A B- A A+ A+ 17% 48% 35% A+ A+ A- F D+ C- D+ D D
1.27 78% 50% 32% +7 0 1.17 35% 0.8 .29 13% .38 78% .30 0.91 56% 27% 26% -10 -5 0.72 21% 1.4 .30 14% .35 81% .29
Jan
20		 Duquesne C F+ B+ A+ C+ 55% 14% 31% A B C- A+ A- D- A- F C+ A- A- A+ A+ A+ 39% 14% 46% B A+ F+ C- D- C+ F D+ F
1.05 48% 43% 47% +1 +2 1.08 26% 1.4 .38 21% .41 64% .26 1.00 50% 25% 23% -13 +1 0.79 37% 1.1 .39 18% .49 74% .37
Jan
23		 St. Bonaventure A+ C+ F A+ A+ 46% 2% 52% A+ A+ C A- B- A- F F F A+ B B- A+ A+ 32% 34% 34% A A+ A A+ A+ D+ F A+ F
1.38 62% 0% 59% +20 +3 1.48 29% 1.2 .35 14% .15 44% .07 0.88 53% 39% 22% -7 -2 0.83 28% 0.5 .14 16% .40 67% .27
Jan
27		 George Washington D+ D C- B- C- 46% 6% 48% A C+ C+ C- C C- A- F D+ A- C F A+ A 43% 7% 50% C A- A A+ A+ C+ D+ A- C
1.04 54% 33% 36% -1 +2 1.06 30% 1.0 .30 18% .36 50% .18 1.00 61% 50% 26% -4 +2 0.98 29% 0.8 .22 18% .34 67% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
30		 Dayton A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 43% 4% 53% A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A A- D- B B+ A- F C C 47% 18% 35% C+ C+ A C B+ A- A+ F A
1.40 55% 100% 59% +21 +2 1.49 26% 2.2 .57 18% .38 65% .25 0.98 50% 56% 33% -1 +1 1.02 20% 1.2 .23 21% .28 88% .24
Feb
3		 Davidson A+ C+ D- A B 44% 12% 44% A+ A- A- A+ A+ A- A+ A A+ D+ C+ A+ B A+ 34% 19% 47% C- A A- F F F D- F F
1.31 61% 33% 39% +4 +2 1.13 38% 1.5 .56 14% .44 73% .32 1.18 56% 30% 32% -4 0 0.94 26% 1.7 .44 10% .34 76% .26
Feb
7		 La Salle B- A F A+ A+ 32% 10% 58% B- A+ F B+ F B- A+ B A A+ A- B A+ A+ 51% 22% 27% D- A C A+ A+ B- C+ C C+
1.16 69% 20% 45% +11 +1 1.26 14% 1.3 .18 16% .35 71% .25 0.82 46% 33% 20% -13 +1 0.78 33% 0.3 .11 20% .32 72% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.6 17.6 39.2 37.9 98.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.7 4.5 17.6 39.2 37.9 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 37.9    37.9
17-1 100.0% 39.2    39.2
16-2 100.0% 17.6    15.6 2.1
15-3 79.2% 3.6    2.2 1.4 0.0
14-4 35.1% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 98.5% 98.5 94.8 3.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 37.9% 98.4% 65.4% 33.0% 5.3 0.3 0.9 3.7 8.5 8.5 6.9 4.9 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.6 95.5%
17-1 39.2% 96.0% 60.8% 35.3% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.3 6.8 9.4 8.0 6.1 2.7 0.4 1.6 89.9%
16-2 17.6% 92.7% 59.9% 32.9% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 3.9 4.5 3.3 1.0 1.3 81.9%
15-3 4.5% 83.3% 50.7% 32.6% 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.8 66.1%
14-4 0.7% 75.7% 48.6% 27.0% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 52.6%
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 95.6% 61.8% 33.8% 6.8 4.4 88.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 24.8% 100.0% 4.5 1.1 3.6 14.5 32.0 27.4 16.1 4.4 0.8 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.0% 96.0% 6.5 0.2 0.8 6.2 14.5 23.4 28.7 16.2 5.2 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.3% 95.5% 6.8 0.6 3.9 11.2 23.0 28.1 18.1 7.3 3.3