Fordham
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#169
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#163
Pace73.7#64
Improvement+1.5#84

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#210
First Shot-1.5#213
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#181
Layup/Dunks-2.6#283
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#90
Freethrows-0.8#230
Improvement+1.2#89

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#145
First Shot-1.2#211
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#51
Layups/Dunks-3.0#295
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#248
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#60
Freethrows-0.9#247
Improvement+0.3#158
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 13.0
.500 or above 28.4% 33.8% 14.1%
.500 or above in Conference 24.2% 26.6% 18.0%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 15.3% 13.6% 19.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Albany (Home) - 72.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 62 - 10
Quad 35 - 57 - 15
Quad 47 - 314 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 12   @ St. John's L 60-92 4%     0 - 1 -12.8 -7.2 -3.8
  Nov 09, 2024 116   @ Seton Hall W 57-56 27%     1 - 1 +6.8 -4.1 +11.0
  Nov 12, 2024 313   Binghamton W 78-63 85%     2 - 1 +3.4 -1.3 +4.5
  Nov 15, 2024 298   @ Manhattan L 76-78 63%     2 - 2 -6.1 -6.4 +0.4
  Nov 22, 2024 150   Drexel L 71-73 58%     2 - 3 -4.6 +3.4 -8.2
  Nov 25, 2024 30   Penn St. L 66-85 11%     2 - 4 -6.3 -1.9 -4.1
  Nov 26, 2024 59   San Francisco L 64-85 17%     2 - 5 -11.7 +4.5 -18.3
  Dec 01, 2024 356   New Hampshire W 83-61 92%     3 - 5 +6.0 +0.9 +3.9
  Dec 04, 2024 333   Fairleigh Dickinson W 84-75 88%     4 - 5 -4.3 -6.5 +1.3
  Dec 08, 2024 217   Maine W 87-72 69%     5 - 5 +9.4 +5.5 +2.5
  Dec 14, 2024 172   Bryant W 86-84 51%     6 - 5 +1.2 +0.9 +0.0
  Dec 21, 2024 236   Albany W 80-74 73%    
  Dec 31, 2024 144   Saint Louis W 80-78 57%    
  Jan 04, 2025 89   St. Bonaventure L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 08, 2025 58   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 63-76 12%    
  Jan 11, 2025 122   @ Davidson L 70-76 28%    
  Jan 15, 2025 190   Massachusetts W 79-75 63%    
  Jan 22, 2025 106   @ Loyola Chicago L 69-77 23%    
  Jan 26, 2025 199   Duquesne W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 29, 2025 165   @ La Salle L 74-77 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 89   @ St. Bonaventure L 64-74 18%    
  Feb 05, 2025 98   Rhode Island L 76-79 40%    
  Feb 12, 2025 41   Dayton L 68-77 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 214   @ Richmond L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 19, 2025 199   @ Duquesne L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 122   Davidson L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 26, 2025 87   @ George Mason L 64-74 18%    
  Mar 01, 2025 97   Saint Joseph's L 73-76 39%    
  Mar 05, 2025 137   George Washington W 77-76 54%    
  Mar 08, 2025 98   @ Rhode Island L 73-82 21%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.5 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 2.6 0.8 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.6 1.6 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.6 3.4 0.4 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 3.0 4.8 1.2 0.0 9.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.9 5.5 2.6 0.2 10.3 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 5.3 4.4 0.6 0.0 11.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 4.1 5.3 1.3 0.0 11.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.3 2.1 0.1 11.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 9.8 14th
15th 0.1 1.0 2.5 3.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.6 15th
Total 0.1 1.0 2.9 5.9 9.8 13.3 15.1 14.9 12.7 10.0 6.7 3.9 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 91.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 73.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 35.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 11.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 13.0% 4.3% 8.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 9.1%
15-3 0.1% 14.8% 14.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 7.4% 7.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 0.9% 8.5% 8.5% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-6 2.2% 3.2% 3.2% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.1
11-7 3.9% 3.3% 3.3% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.8
10-8 6.7% 1.0% 1.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6
9-9 10.0% 1.0% 1.0% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.9
8-10 12.7% 0.3% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.7
7-11 14.9% 0.3% 0.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.8
6-12 15.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 15.1
5-13 13.3% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 13.3
4-14 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.8
3-15 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.9
2-16 2.9% 2.9
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%