IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Colgate
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.6	#239
Expected Predictive Rating	-6.4	#270

Pace	65.7	#246
Improvement	-0.1	#197

Offense
Total Offense	-0.8	#195

First Shot	+3.3	#85
After Offensive Rebound	-4.1	#355

Layup/Dunks	-1.2	#226
2 Pt Jumpshots	+2.3	#54
3 Pt Jumpshots	+6.7	#20
Freethrows	-4.5	#361

Improvement	+3.3	#31

Defense
Total Defense	-3.8	#287

First Shot	-4.6	#315
After Offensive Rebounds	+0.7	#113

Layups/Dunks	-0.5	#184
2 Pt Jumpshots	-2.1	#321
3 Pt Jumpshots	-4.0	#321
Freethrows	+1.9	#61

Improvement	-3.4	#334

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	16.8%	17.6%	13.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.9	15.9	16.0

.500 or above	7.5%	9.2%	1.3%
.500 or above in Conference	91.5%	95.8%	75.8%
Conference Champion	15.0%	17.8%	4.8%
Last Place in Conference	0.7%	0.2%	2.6%

First Four	14.0%	14.2%	13.1%
First Round	10.8%	11.5%	8.4%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Home) - 78.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 1	1 - 2
Quad 3	1 - 7	1 - 9
Quad 4	12 - 9	14 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf	Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2024	195	@ Drexel	L	56-73	30%	0 - 1		-16.1	-11.5	-5.6
Nov 12, 2024	104	@ Syracuse	L	72-74	14%	0 - 2		+4.9	+2.6	+2.3
Nov 18, 2024	91	@ North Carolina St.	L	49-72	11%	0 - 3		-14.4	-20.4	+6.6
Nov 22, 2024	241	@ Harvard	L	67-78	41%	0 - 4		-13.1	-2.1	-11.6
Nov 27, 2024	117	@ UNC Wilmington	W	72-59	18%	1 - 4		+18.3	+11.9	+8.5
Nov 29, 2024	145	Appalachian St.	L	50-72	29%	1 - 5		-20.8	-10.0	-15.0
Nov 30, 2024	181	Sam Houston St.	L	78-82	37%	1 - 6		-5.1	+8.4	-13.8
Dec 04, 2024	122	Cornell	L	57-84	34%	1 - 7		-27.2	-16.4	-12.3
Dec 08, 2024	206	@ Northeastern	L	75-78	32%	1 - 8		-2.8	+2.4	-5.1
Dec 11, 2024	22	@ Kentucky	L	67-78	3%	1 - 9		+7.2	+1.9	+4.8
Dec 15, 2024	240	Vermont	W	65-60	60%	2 - 9		-2.1	+0.5	-2.0
Dec 22, 2024	256	Iona	L	73-79	63%	2 - 10		-14.0	+0.8	-14.9
Jan 02, 2025	297	Army	W	71-59	70%	3 - 10	1 - 0	+2.1	-5.0	+7.4
Jan 05, 2025	251	@ Bucknell	L	60-66	43%	3 - 11	1 - 1	-8.8	-6.1	-3.3
Jan 08, 2025	267	Lehigh	W	67-62	65%	4 - 11	2 - 1	-3.4	-8.8	+5.4
Jan 11, 2025	294	Boston University	W	87-50	69%	5 - 11	3 - 1	+27.2	+16.3	+13.1
Jan 15, 2025	263	@ Navy	W	73-66	45%	6 - 11	4 - 1	+3.8	+0.8	+3.2
Jan 18, 2025	281	@ Lafayette	W	90-67	48%	7 - 11	5 - 1	+18.8	+17.7	+1.3
Jan 20, 2025	251	Bucknell	W	87-80	62%	8 - 11	6 - 1	-0.7	+11.1	-12.0
Jan 25, 2025	233	@ American	L	77-81	39%	8 - 12	6 - 2	-5.7	+7.1	-13.0
Jan 29, 2025	297	@ Army	L	72-84	51%	8 - 13	6 - 3	-17.0	+1.3	-19.0
Feb 01, 2025	281	Lafayette	L	61-76	67%	8 - 14	6 - 4	-24.2	-8.1	-17.7
Feb 03, 2025	267	@ Lehigh	L	68-94	46%	8 - 15	6 - 5	-29.5	-1.2	-30.0
Feb 08, 2025	325	Loyola Maryland	W	75-67	78%
Feb 12, 2025	319	@ Holy Cross	W	73-71	57%
Feb 15, 2025	294	@ Boston University	W	67-66	49%
Feb 19, 2025	263	Navy	W	74-70	66%
Feb 22, 2025	325	@ Loyola Maryland	W	73-70	59%
Feb 26, 2025	319	Holy Cross	W	75-68	76%
Mar 01, 2025	233	American	W	70-68	59%
Projected Record						12 - 18	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Patriot League Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st											0.1	2.9	7.7	4.3						15.0	1st
2nd										0.1	4.6	14.8	9.1	0.9						29.5	2nd
3rd									0.0	1.5	11.9	9.0	1.0	0.0						23.4	3rd
4th									0.2	5.8	7.7	0.8	0.0							14.4	4th
5th									1.1	6.4	1.1	0.0								8.5	5th
6th								0.0	3.1	1.7	0.1									4.9	6th
7th								0.5	2.1	0.1										2.8	7th
8th							0.1	0.8	0.3											1.1	8th
9th							0.1	0.3												0.3	9th
10th							0.1	0.0												0.1	10th

Total							0.2	1.6	6.8	15.5	25.4	27.5	17.9	5.2							Total

Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5	82.3%	4.3	2.6	1.6	0.1
12-6	43.1%	7.7	2.2	3.7	1.7	0.2	0.0
11-7	10.6%	2.9	0.1	1.0	1.2	0.6	0.1
10-8	0.5%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	15.0%	15.0	4.9	6.2	3.0	0.8	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5	5.2%	26.5%	26.5%		15.2														0.0	1.1	0.3	3.8
12-6	17.9%	21.7%	21.7%		16.0															0.2	3.7	14.0
11-7	27.5%	19.2%	19.2%		16.0																5.3	22.2
10-8	25.4%	14.5%	14.5%		16.0																3.7	21.7
9-9	15.5%	12.7%	12.7%		16.0																2.0	13.6
8-10	6.8%	7.1%	7.1%		16.0																0.5	6.3
7-11	1.6%	5.1%	5.1%		16.0																0.1	1.5
6-12	0.2%	4.8%	4.8%		16.0																0.0	0.2
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	16.8%	16.8%	0.0%	15.9														0.0	1.3	15.5	83.3	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	14	15	16
Win Out	1.4%	100.0%	15.2	2.9	77.5	19.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	1.4%