Colgate
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#176
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#163
Pace67.4#240
Improvement-0.5#227

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#173
First Shot+2.8#103
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#337
Layup/Dunks+2.4#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#74
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#168
Freethrows-2.4#309
Improvement-1.6#305

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#200
First Shot-1.8#229
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#130
Layups/Dunks-1.0#207
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#57
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#248
Freethrows-0.7#233
Improvement+1.1#81
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.5% 36.0% 27.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 86.6% 94.9% 84.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.8% 95.6% 92.0%
Conference Champion 42.1% 48.9% 40.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four2.7% 1.1% 3.2%
First Round28.1% 35.5% 26.0%
Second Round0.9% 1.1% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Bonaventure (Away) - 22.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 33 - 7
Quad 416 - 619 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 10 @Michigan St. L 69-80 3%     0 - 1 +11.0 +9.4 +1.5
  Fri, Nov 7 227 Northeastern L 65-68 71%     0 - 2 -10.0 -7.0 -3.1
  Tue, Nov 11 256 Drexel W 90-83 75%     1 - 2 -1.4 +14.1 -15.4
  Fri, Nov 14 17 @Illinois L 65-84 3%     1 - 3 +1.0 +4.2 -4.1
  Mon, Nov 17 161 @Siena W 72-69 35%     2 - 3 +5.7 +7.8 -1.9
  Thu, Nov 20 150 @Cornell L 94-95 2OT 33%     2 - 4 +2.3 -3.3 +5.8
  Fri, Nov 28 324 Albany W 69-67 77%     3 - 4 -7.2 -2.4 -4.6
  Sun, Nov 30 211 Fordham W 72-62 57%     4 - 4 +6.9 +4.3 +3.4
  Wed, Dec 10 111 @St. Bonaventure L 66-74 23%    
  Sun, Dec 21 15 @Florida L 64-86 2%    
  Sun, Dec 28 193 Harvard W 72-68 65%    
  Wed, Dec 31 331 @Lafayette W 74-68 70%    
  Sat, Jan 3 342 @Army W 77-70 74%    
  Wed, Jan 7 250 American W 77-70 73%    
  Sat, Jan 10 299 Lehigh W 76-67 80%    
  Wed, Jan 14 319 @Loyola Maryland W 76-71 67%    
  Sat, Jan 17 304 Bucknell W 77-67 81%    
  Wed, Jan 21 250 @American W 74-73 52%    
  Sat, Jan 24 235 Boston University W 74-68 71%    
  Wed, Jan 28 301 Holy Cross W 76-66 81%    
  Sat, Jan 31 299 @Lehigh W 73-70 62%    
  Wed, Feb 4 342 Army W 80-67 88%    
  Sat, Feb 7 304 @Bucknell W 74-70 63%    
  Wed, Feb 11 301 @Holy Cross W 73-69 61%    
  Sat, Feb 14 198 Navy W 73-69 66%    
  Mon, Feb 16 235 @Boston University W 72-71 51%    
  Sat, Feb 21 319 Loyola Maryland W 79-68 83%    
  Wed, Feb 25 331 Lafayette W 77-65 85%    
  Sat, Feb 28 198 @Navy L 70-72 43%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.2 6.6 10.0 11.0 7.5 3.7 0.8 42.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.0 7.6 7.2 3.5 0.9 0.1 22.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.5 5.5 4.2 1.1 0.1 13.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 3.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.2 0.1 3.4 6th
7th 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.2 2.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.2 3.5 5.8 8.6 11.5 14.5 14.9 13.7 11.9 7.6 3.7 0.8 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 3.7    3.7 0.0
16-2 98.5% 7.5    7.1 0.4
15-3 92.1% 11.0    9.1 1.8 0.1
14-4 73.4% 10.0    6.7 3.0 0.3
13-5 44.2% 6.6    2.9 2.8 0.8 0.0
12-6 15.3% 2.2    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.1% 42.1 30.8 9.1 1.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 60.1% 60.1% 12.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-1 3.7% 51.2% 51.2% 13.5 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.8
16-2 7.6% 49.1% 49.1% 14.0 0.1 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.0 3.9
15-3 11.9% 41.8% 41.8% 14.4 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.2 0.3 6.9
14-4 13.7% 38.3% 38.3% 14.8 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.9 0.7 8.4
13-5 14.9% 31.8% 31.8% 15.1 0.1 0.8 2.6 1.2 10.1
12-6 14.5% 25.1% 25.1% 15.3 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.5 10.9
11-7 11.5% 19.8% 19.8% 15.6 0.1 0.8 1.4 9.2
10-8 8.6% 16.4% 16.4% 15.8 0.3 1.1 7.2
9-9 5.8% 11.5% 11.5% 15.9 0.0 0.6 5.1
8-10 3.5% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 3.2
7-11 2.2% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.1 2.0
6-12 0.8% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 29.5% 29.5% 0.0% 14.8 0.1 0.5 2.7 7.1 11.8 7.4 70.5 0.0%