Colgate
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#223
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#261
Pace64.4#296
Improvement+2.0#64

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#218
First Shot+2.2#111
After Offensive Rebound-3.9#349
Layup/Dunks-2.0#261
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#87
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.4#14
Freethrows-4.8#360
Improvement+2.2#42

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#220
First Shot-2.2#249
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#126
Layups/Dunks+1.1#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#308
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#317
Freethrows+2.0#55
Improvement-0.2#200
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.0% 20.5% 15.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 37.3% 43.9% 22.9%
.500 or above in Conference 81.1% 83.5% 75.7%
Conference Champion 27.4% 29.7% 22.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 2.4% 4.1%
First Four8.3% 8.0% 9.1%
First Round15.5% 17.2% 11.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Home) - 68.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 413 - 815 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 146   @ Drexel L 56-73 26%     0 - 1 -13.6 -11.0 -3.6
  Nov 12, 2024 95   @ Syracuse L 72-74 14%     0 - 2 +6.7 +2.0 +4.7
  Nov 18, 2024 78   @ North Carolina St. L 49-72 11%     0 - 3 -12.9 -20.1 +7.7
  Nov 22, 2024 231   @ Harvard L 67-78 40%     0 - 4 -11.7 -0.8 -11.5
  Nov 27, 2024 134   @ UNC Wilmington W 72-59 23%     1 - 4 +17.5 +11.9 +7.7
  Nov 29, 2024 173   Appalachian St. L 50-72 41%     1 - 5 -22.8 -11.5 -15.5
  Nov 30, 2024 127   Sam Houston St. L 78-82 30%     1 - 6 -1.8 +9.7 -11.8
  Dec 04, 2024 120   Cornell L 57-84 39%     1 - 7 -27.4 -15.7 -13.2
  Dec 08, 2024 160   @ Northeastern L 75-78 28%     1 - 8 -0.2 +4.9 -5.0
  Dec 11, 2024 9   @ Kentucky L 67-78 3%     1 - 9 +9.3 +4.6 +4.1
  Dec 15, 2024 184   Vermont W 65-60 54%     2 - 9 +0.8 +1.4 +0.0
  Dec 22, 2024 258   Iona W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 02, 2025 299   Army W 72-65 75%    
  Jan 05, 2025 264   @ Bucknell L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 08, 2025 244   Lehigh W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 11, 2025 256   Boston University W 68-63 68%    
  Jan 15, 2025 302   @ Navy W 71-70 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 246   @ Lafayette L 66-67 45%    
  Jan 20, 2025 264   Bucknell W 69-64 69%    
  Jan 25, 2025 242   @ American L 65-67 44%    
  Jan 29, 2025 299   @ Army W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 246   Lafayette W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 03, 2025 244   @ Lehigh L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 08, 2025 313   Loyola Maryland W 72-64 77%    
  Feb 12, 2025 310   @ Holy Cross W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 256   @ Boston University L 65-66 46%    
  Feb 19, 2025 302   Navy W 74-67 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 313   @ Loyola Maryland W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 26, 2025 310   Holy Cross W 74-66 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 242   American W 68-64 65%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.8 6.9 7.1 5.1 2.6 0.9 0.1 27.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 5.0 7.1 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.2 6.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.8 5.6 2.2 0.2 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 5.0 2.2 0.1 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.5 2.5 0.2 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.1 5.2 8.0 11.1 13.1 14.2 13.9 11.4 8.5 5.3 2.6 0.9 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 99.5% 2.6    2.5 0.1
15-3 96.2% 5.1    4.7 0.4 0.0
14-4 84.1% 7.1    5.5 1.6 0.1
13-5 60.2% 6.9    3.5 2.8 0.5 0.0
12-6 27.3% 3.8    1.0 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.0
11-7 5.7% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.4% 27.4 18.2 6.8 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 59.4% 59.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.9% 52.0% 52.0% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.6% 38.7% 38.7% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.6
15-3 5.3% 35.7% 35.7% 14.7 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.2 3.4
14-4 8.5% 30.7% 30.7% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.8 5.9
13-5 11.4% 26.5% 26.5% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.8 8.4
12-6 13.9% 21.9% 21.9% 15.8 0.0 0.5 2.6 10.9
11-7 14.2% 17.9% 17.9% 16.0 0.1 2.5 11.7
10-8 13.1% 14.8% 14.8% 16.0 0.0 1.9 11.1
9-9 11.1% 12.9% 12.9% 16.0 1.4 9.6
8-10 8.0% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.6 7.5
7-11 5.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.2 5.0
6-12 3.1% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.1 3.0
5-13 1.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 19.0% 19.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.7 12.1 81.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.3 9.1 54.5 36.4