Boston University
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.0 #285
Expected Predictive Rating -8.6 #309
Pace 61.0 #354
Improvement -1.9 #262

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #159 B D+ D+ C- C+
Defense #352 F C F C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #305 1.18 #146 -2.1 #255
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #283 0.81 #106 -1.4 #244
Three Pointers 50% #28 1.13 #45 +7.3 #14
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #71 +3.9 #70
Freethrows 16.0 #253 72% #225 11.5 #242
Second Chance 25.6% #311 1.07 #146 0.27 #273
Turnovers 17.9% #270
Total Offense +0.1 #159

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #160 1.21 #251 -1.6 #234
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #191 0.90 #342 -1.2 #281
Three Pointers 40% #201 1.18 #353 -3.1 #305
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #341 -6.0 #342
Freethrows 17.0 #171 74% #262 12.6 #181
Second Chance 29.7% #138 1.10 #259 0.33 #204
Turnovers 11.6% #362
Total Defense -7.2 #352

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #149 0.3% #192
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.0% #75 11.3% #349
Possession Length 19.2 #340 17.4 #201
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #354 0.15 #107
Improvement -2.8 #325 +0.9 #124

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.7% 8.8% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 11.6% 24.4% 7.6%
.500 or above in Conference 49.3% 72.9% 41.9%
Conference Champion 1.0% 3.1% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 2.1% 7.9%
First Four5.2% 5.8% 5.0%
First Round4.4% 6.2% 3.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colgate (Away) - 24.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 62 - 8
Quad 412 - 1113 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 259 @Northeastern W 76 - 75 OT 32% -2  1 - 0 -1 -5 D- D F +3 A+ C C
 Fri, Nov 7 60 @Northwestern L 52 - 76 5% -18  1 - 1 -12 -8 C+ F F -8 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 264 Brown W 90 - 77 56% +14  2 - 1 +4 +25 A+ A+ F -20 D- F F
 Sat, Nov 15 208 Merrimack L 79 - 91 46% -10  2 - 2 -18 +11 A+ C B+ -31 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 18 180 @Columbia L 49 - 54 20% -12  2 - 3 -3 -15 F C A+ +11 B+ A+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 168 Harvard W 75 - 74 28% -2  3 - 3 +0 +9 A+ C- F -9 F D C-
 Tue, Nov 25 116 @Penn St. L 87 - 96 11% -12  3 - 4 -3 +24 A+ B- A+ -27 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 178 @Northern Kentucky L 65 - 74 20% +2  3 - 5 -7 +1 B+ C- F -9 A+ F C
 Sat, Dec 6 323 @New Hampshire L 82 - 88 OT 50% +6  3 - 6 -13 +1 D+ A- D- -14 F D F
 Wed, Dec 10 341 Maine L 59 - 69 76% -7  3 - 7 -25 -8 F B+ F -18 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 221 @Dartmouth L 64 - 77 27% -9  3 - 8 -14 -5 D- D- F -9 D A+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 309 Umass Lowell W 88 - 76 67% +9  4 - 8 +1 +16 A+ A+ F -14 F D F
 Wed, Dec 31 194 @Navy L 77 - 82 23% -5  4 - 9 0 - 1 -4 +10 B+ F A+ -14 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 224 American L 62 - 64 49% -5  4 - 10 0 - 2 -9 -2 F B A+ -8 D- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 314 @Lafayette W 83 - 67 47% +10  5 - 10 1 - 2 +10 +13 A+ D- C -2 D A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 333 Army W 100 - 91 74% +8  6 - 10 2 - 2 -5 +20 A+ D F -25 F F F
 Wed, Jan 14 307 Lehigh L 91 - 93 OT 66% -6  6 - 11 2 - 3 -13 +5 A F B -18 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 324 @Loyola Maryland L 57 - 74 50% -1  6 - 12 2 - 4 -24 -21 F F F -3 B F F
 Wed, Jan 21 314 Lafayette W 77 - 73 OT 70% -2  7 - 12 3 - 4 -8 -3 B F F -6 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 199 @Colgate L 70 - 77 24%
 Wed, Jan 28 194 Navy L 69 - 71 43%
 Sat, Jan 31 319 @Bucknell L 70 - 71 49%
 Mon, Feb 2 320 @Holy Cross L 70 - 71 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 324 Loyola Maryland W 78 - 72 71%
 Wed, Feb 11 333 @Army W 75 - 74 53%
 Sat, Feb 14 319 Bucknell W 74 - 68 71%
 Mon, Feb 16 199 Colgate L 73 - 74 45%
 Sat, Feb 21 307 @Lehigh L 71 - 73 43%
 Wed, Feb 25 320 Holy Cross W 73 - 67 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 224 @American L 69 - 75 28%
Totals 12 - 18 8 - 10 -7 +0 B D+ D+ -7 F C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 1.8 0.5 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.2 4.2 1.3 0.1 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 9.1 9.8 3.0 0.2 23.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 8.4 8.9 2.0 0.1 20.4 5th
6th 0.3 4.9 8.3 1.9 0.0 15.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 6.8 2.3 0.1 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.2 2.6 0.1 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.5 0.3 5.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.3 10th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.8 9.3 15.7 20.8 20.4 15.3 8.9 3.7 1.0 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 95.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 44.3% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 10.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 22.7% 22.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 1.0% 19.3% 19.3% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8
12-6 3.7% 17.7% 17.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.0
11-7 8.9% 12.3% 12.3% 15.9 0.1 1.0 7.8
10-8 15.3% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4 13.9
9-9 20.4% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 1.7 18.7
8-10 20.8% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.9 19.9
7-11 15.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.5 15.2
6-12 9.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 9.1
5-13 3.8% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 3.7
4-14 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 15.9 93.3 0.0%