Boston University
Patriot League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -6.4 275
Expected Predictive Rating -8.3 300
Pace 60.5 356
Improvement +0.9 147

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #148 B D D+ C- C+
Defense D- #346 D- C- F C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 266 59% 145 -1.4 235
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 266 43% 55 -0.9 226
Three Pointers 48% 41 38% 29 +6.8 18
1st FG Attempt 1.11 62 +4.4 62
Second Chance 25.1% 326 1.00 213 0.25 312
Turnovers 18.5% 285
Freethrows 0.29 230 71% 240 0.21 232
Total Offense +0.7 148

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 148 59% 198 -1.0 212
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 186 47% 361 -1.8 318
Three Pointers 40% 220 40% 362 -3.1 314
1st FG Attempt 1.14 343 -5.9 343
Second Chance 30.3% 173 1.08 265 0.33 225
Turnovers 12.3% 361
Freethrows 0.29 153 73% 219 0.21 157
Total Defense -7.1 346

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.3 147 +0.1 189
Shot Type Accuracy +4.0 63 +5.6 353
Possession Length 19.3 344 17.2 173
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 353 0.15 112
Improvement -0.9 #241 +1.8 #88

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8% 8% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 6% 8% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 60% 71% 27%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 4%
First Four6% 6% 5%
First Round5% 5% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Bucknell (Home) - 74.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 61 - 8
Quad 412 - 1014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 269 @Northeastern W 76 - 75 OT 37% -2  31% 1 - 0 C- -2 D- -8 D D+ F+ B +6 A C C
 Fri, Nov 7 64 @Northwestern L 52 - 76 6% -18  0% 1 - 1 D- -13 F -10 C+ F F D -6 D- B+ F+
 Wed, Nov 12 278 Brown W 90 - 77 63% +14  99% 2 - 1 C+ +3 A+ +23 A+ A+ D- F -18 F F F
 Sat, Nov 15 182 Merrimack L 79 - 91 42% -10  1% 2 - 2 F+ -16 A- +10 A+ C B+ F -27 F F+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 200 @Columbia L 49 - 54 25% -12  0% 2 - 3 C- -5 F -18 F F+ A A +13 B A+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 153 Harvard W 75 - 74 26% -2  16% 3 - 3 C +1 B +7 A+ C F D -6 F D D+
 Tue, Nov 25 109 @Penn St. L 87 - 96 11% -12  3% 3 - 4 C- -2 A+ +22 A+ B- A F -25 F F+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 201 @Northern Kentucky L 65 - 74 25% +2  73% 3 - 5 D -9 C- -2 B+ D+ F D- -8 A F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 327 @New Hampshire L 82 - 88 OT 54% +6  61% 3 - 6 D- -13 C- -2 D+ B D+ F+ -11 F C F
 Wed, Dec 10 338 Maine L 59 - 69 78% -7  0% 3 - 7 F -25 F -12 F B- F F -14 F A B-
 Sat, Dec 13 240 @Dartmouth L 64 - 77 32% -9  4% 3 - 8 F+ -14 D- -8 D- D D- D- -8 F+ B+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 318 Umass Lowell W 88 - 76 73% +9  97% 4 - 8 C -1 A +13 A+ A+ F+ F -13 F D F+
 Wed, Dec 31 166 @Navy L 77 - 82 20% -5  7% 4 - 9 0 - 1 C- -2 B+ +8 B+ F+ A+ F+ -11 F A- F
 Sat, Jan 3 258 American L 62 - 64 58% -5  19% 4 - 10 0 - 2 D -11 D -6 F B- A D+ -5 D- A D-
 Wed, Jan 7 319 @Lafayette W 83 - 67 52% +10  97% 5 - 10 1 - 2 B +9 A +11 A D C+ C -1 D+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 10 341 Army W 100 - 91 79% +8  88% 6 - 10 2 - 2 D+ -6 A+ +18 A+ D+ D+ F -24 F F+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 306 Lehigh L 91 - 93 OT 69% -6  6% 6 - 11 2 - 3 D- -13 C+ +2 A- F B- F -15 D C F
 Sat, Jan 17 312 @Loyola Maryland L 57 - 74 49% -1  50% 6 - 12 2 - 4 F -23 F -22 F F F C -1 B F F
 Wed, Jan 21 319 Lafayette W 77 - 73 OT 74% -2  27% 7 - 12 3 - 4 D -9 D -4 B F+ F D+ -5 D+ A F
 Sat, Jan 24 209 @Colgate L 79 - 80 OT 26% +3  80% 7 - 13 3 - 5 C -1 C +0 A- F D C -1 D F+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 166 Navy L 50 - 58 39% +2  64% 7 - 14 3 - 6 D- -11 F -12 D C- F C -1 F A C+
 Sat, Jan 31 324 @Bucknell L 97 - 103 2OT 53% -3  22% 7 - 15 3 - 7 D- -13 A +11 D+ B- A+ F -24 F F+ F
 Mon, Feb 2 321 @Holy Cross W 72 - 64 52% +3  85% 8 - 15 4 - 7 C +1 B+ +8 A+ F B- D -5 C+ F F
 Sat, Feb 7 312 Loyola Maryland W 78 - 69 71% +6  85% 9 - 15 5 - 7 C- -3 D+ -3 B C- F C +0 D- A+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 341 @Army W 85 - 68 60% +10  92% 10 - 15 6 - 7 B- +8 A+ +14 A+ F C D+ -4 B F F
 Sat, Feb 14 324 Bucknell W 75 - 68 74%
 Mon, Feb 16 209 Colgate L 72 - 73 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 306 @Lehigh L 71 - 72 46%
 Wed, Feb 25 321 Holy Cross W 74 - 67 73%
 Sat, Feb 28 258 @American L 70 - 74 35%
Totals 13 - 17 9 - 9 -6 C +1 B D D+ D- -7 D- C- F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C B B+ B 35% 16% 48% C+ B D C- D D+ C- C- C- D- C F F F+ 40% 20% 40% C D- C D+ C- F C+ C- C+
1.10 59% 43% 38% +4 0 1.11 25% 1.0 .25 19% .29 71% .21 1.19 59% 47% 40% +6 0 1.14 30% 1.1 .33 12% .29 73% .21
Nov
3		 Northeastern D- B+ A+ F D- 38% 14% 48% C+ D C- D+ D+ F+ C D C- B B C A+ A+ 54% 15% 31% D- A D+ B C C F C- F
1.02 68% 57% 25% 0 +1 1.04 31% 0.9 .29 21% .34 70% .24 1.01 52% 38% 24% -8 +2 0.89 30% 0.9 .27 17% .42 69% .29
Nov
7		 Northwestern F D F A+ B- 30% 30% 40% D- C+ B+ F F F F C+ F D F D- D+ F 35% 33% 33% A D- D A+ B+ F+ A+ A+ A+
0.86 50% 14% 47% -1 -2 0.96 38% 0.1 .05 23% .15 71% .11 1.26 78% 47% 35% +10 -2 1.19 33% 0.9 .30 8% .24 54% .13
Nov
12		 Brown A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 36% 13% 51% B- A+ A A+ A+ D- B A+ A+ F F A C- F 31% 19% 50% B+ F C- F F F F F F
1.41 75% 33% 48% +16 +1 1.36 41% 1.8 .73 20% .37 89% .33 1.20 73% 22% 33% +1 0 1.04 29% 1.6 .45 14% .42 83% .35
Nov
15		 Merrimack A- A B A+ A+ 27% 20% 53% D+ A+ F A+ C B+ C F D+ F D+ A+ F F 33% 13% 53% B- F F C F+ C+ B F C
1.23 67% 44% 42% +10 -1 1.20 25% 1.6 .41 16% .35 63% .22 1.41 60% 17% 67% +24 +1 1.51 35% 1.0 .35 17% .30 88% .26
Nov
18		 Columbia F F+ F F F 59% 8% 33% A+ F D F F+ A C- D D+ A A F C+ A- 51% 7% 42% F B A A A+ C A D- B+
0.82 47% 0% 12% -21 +3 0.67 25% 0.7 .18 8% .29 69% .20 0.91 45% 67% 33% -5 +3 0.98 27% 0.7 .18 22% .19 78% .15
Nov
22		 Harvard B A A+ A+ A+ 38% 16% 47% C A+ F A+ C F F F F D F B+ D F 40% 18% 42% C F A F D D+ A B+ A
1.17 71% 71% 52% +23 +1 1.49 18% 1.7 .29 23% .16 50% .08 1.16 80% 33% 38% +11 0 1.24 17% 1.8 .30 17% .17 78% .13
Nov
25		 Penn St. A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 23% 13% 65% C- A+ D A+ B- A B- D C+ F C- F F F 48% 16% 36% D+ F D F+ F+ F F B F
1.37 82% 67% 45% +20 0 1.42 25% 1.7 .42 14% .24 69% .16 1.51 62% 71% 44% +13 +1 1.30 33% 1.4 .47 5% .66 70% .46
Nov
29		 Northern Kentucky C- A+ D+ B A- 37% 29% 34% D- B+ D C+ D+ F A- B+ A D- B- A+ A A 29% 20% 51% A- A F F F C+ F F F
1.04 79% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.18 29% 1.2 .33 26% .41 74% .30 1.19 54% 22% 26% -10 -1 0.80 50% 1.4 .69 18% .47 83% .39
Dec
6		 New Hampshire C- F F+ A+ D- 44% 13% 44% B D+ F+ A+ B D+ A F D+ F+ D+ F D+ F 60% 5% 35% F F F A C F F A+ D-
1.07 38% 29% 42% -5 +1 0.95 23% 1.7 .40 17% .42 56% .24 1.15 59% 67% 35% +3 +4 1.14 33% 0.8 .25 13% .43 52% .22
Dec
10		 Maine F F A+ F F 27% 4% 69% B- F B+ C- B- F C+ F C- F D+ F F F 43% 29% 29% B- F D A+ A B- C F D-
0.95 42% 50% 23% -15 +1 0.73 44% 1.0 .44 24% .34 63% .21 1.11 61% 50% 58% +15 -1 1.31 24% 0.4 .10 22% .31 80% .25
Dec
13		 Dartmouth D- F+ D D D- 35% 12% 53% C+ D- B F D D- B- F D+ D- C- A- F F+ 29% 15% 56% C F+ C A+ B+ F F C F
0.97 50% 33% 30% -7 +1 0.90 35% 0.7 .23 15% .31 59% .18 1.17 57% 29% 44% +7 0 1.17 26% 0.8 .19 14% .46 73% .34
Dec
21		 Umass Lowell A A+ A+ A+ A+ 47% 20% 33% C A+ C- A+ A+ F+ A D B+ F D+ F D- F 47% 19% 34% D F C+ F D F+ F+ A+ C
1.35 76% 67% 47% +21 +1 1.44 30% 1.8 .55 17% .37 70% .26 1.16 59% 67% 38% +8 +1 1.19 30% 1.3 .37 17% .39 52% .20
Dec
31		 Navy B+ C A+ C- A- 27% 34% 39% D- B+ F A+ F+ A+ D A D+ F+ D D F F 30% 20% 50% C+ F C+ A+ A- F F C F
1.14 60% 58% 32% +6 -3 1.09 13% 1.5 .19 12% .20 83% .17 1.22 62% 44% 45% +11 -1 1.23 29% 0.8 .24 13% .51 73% .38
Jan
3		 American D C- F C- F 27% 18% 55% D+ F D+ A+ B- A D- C- D- D+ A F F F 39% 20% 41% B- D- A+ A- A D- C+ F C
1.05 58% 0% 33% -7 0 0.86 29% 1.3 .37 14% .33 71% .24 1.09 44% 67% 42% +5 0 1.13 14% 0.8 .11 14% .24 83% .20
Jan
7		 Lafayette A D+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 29% 33% D+ A C- D D C+ D+ C C- C D F A+ C- 52% 16% 32% D D+ A A- A- F C+ A+ A-
1.26 55% 53% 53% +13 -1 1.25 30% 1.0 .30 14% .26 73% .19 1.02 62% 56% 17% -3 +2 0.98 18% 0.7 .13 8% .26 50% .13
Jan
10		 Army A+ B A+ A+ A+ 44% 8% 48% A- A+ F A+ D+ D+ C+ A B+ F B F F F 31% 16% 53% B+ F C- F F+ F C+ F D
1.46 67% 50% 65% +27 +2 1.60 22% 1.5 .33 16% .36 81% .30 1.33 50% 44% 45% +8 0 1.17 31% 1.2 .36 10% .24 87% .21
Jan
14		 Lehigh C+ C A+ A- B+ 58% 16% 26% A A- F F F B- A- A A F A- F F D- 35% 27% 38% C+ D A+ F C F D F F
1.18 58% 67% 40% +7 +2 1.19 18% 0.7 .12 14% .39 81% .32 1.21 48% 50% 43% +5 -1 1.10 9% 2.3 .21 8% .32 87% .28
Jan
17		 Loyola Maryland F F F F F 33% 14% 53% C+ F F F F F C+ A+ A C B- D- A+ B 42% 13% 45% C- B C+ F F F F+ A D+
0.81 44% 29% 23% -15 0 0.73 22% 0.8 .17 23% .31 88% .28 1.05 55% 43% 25% -7 +1 0.91 26% 1.9 .49 11% .34 62% .21
Jan
21		 Lafayette D C+ A+ C+ C+ 44% 8% 48% A B F C+ F+ F C- F D D+ C A C- D+ 44% 13% 44% D+ D+ C A+ A F A+ F A
1.08 61% 50% 36% +4 +2 1.13 22% 1.1 .25 20% .28 63% .17 1.02 56% 25% 33% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.5 .12 11% .14 78% .11
Jan
24		 Colgate C A- A+ F A- 46% 15% 40% B A- F F F D A+ C+ A+ C A D+ F D 41% 30% 30% C D F C- F+ B+ B+ A+ A
1.09 68% 86% 26% +7 +1 1.19 18% 0.6 .11 18% .45 74% .33 1.10 45% 44% 56% +7 -1 1.13 36% 1.0 .36 19% .20 58% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Navy F F C+ D F+ 44% 13% 44% A D B+ F C- F D+ F D- C C+ F C F 44% 22% 33% D+ F B A+ A C+ A+ F A+
0.89 47% 40% 29% -7 +1 0.90 36% 0.8 .27 25% .21 67% .14 1.03 55% 70% 33% +5 0 1.13 27% 0.7 .19 20% .04 100% .04
Jan
31		 Bucknell A B- F C- D 37% 17% 46% B- D+ D+ A+ B- A+ A A+ A+ F A F F F 39% 24% 37% B F D+ F F+ F F F F
1.26 64% 30% 33% 0 0 1.03 30% 1.3 .40 9% .42 83% .34 1.34 43% 62% 55% +12 0 1.24 28% 1.3 .38 10% .48 85% .41
Feb
2		 Holy Cross B+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 29% 36% 36% F A+ F D F B- A+ F B+ D A+ D- F C+ 38% 29% 33% C- C+ D F F F A+ C A+
1.24 75% 33% 60% +17 -3 1.31 18% 1.0 .18 12% .43 55% .23 1.10 35% 47% 41% -3 -1 0.94 25% 1.2 .31 5% .15 75% .11
Feb
7		 Loyola Maryland D+ F A+ A+ B 30% 9% 62% B- B B F C- F B+ B A- C F A A+ D- 37% 7% 56% D D- A+ A+ A+ F A- A+ A
1.12 50% 75% 41% +8 +1 1.19 37% 1.0 .37 26% .35 78% .27 0.99 86% 25% 25% +2 +2 1.09 12% 0.0 .00 11% .19 58% .11
Feb
11		 Army A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 19% 40% C+ A+ F F F C A+ C A+ D+ A+ F B B+ 27% 6% 67% C B B- F F F D D- D
1.36 82% 75% 47% +25 0 1.52 15% 0.7 .10 14% .49 73% .36 1.09 23% 100% 30% -9 +1 0.86 27% 1.5 .41 11% .29 75% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.3 0.7 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 8.8 18.1 4.4 31.3 3rd
4th 3.9 18.5 2.9 25.2 4th
5th 0.3 13.2 5.8 0.0 19.3 5th
6th 3.2 9.0 0.6 12.7 6th
7th 0.2 5.4 1.1 6.6 7th
8th 0.7 2.4 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.7 0.1 0.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
Total 1.7 11.3 27.2 33.5 21.2 5.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 5.1% 15.9% 15.9% 15.4 0.5 0.3 4.3
10-8 21.2% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.1 2.2 19.0
9-9 33.5% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.0 2.8 30.7
8-10 27.2% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 1.5 25.8
7-11 11.3% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.3 10.9
6-12 1.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 1.6
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 15.9 92.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 15.4 61.7 38.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7%
Lose Out 0.6%