IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Northwestern
Big Ten
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+8.1	#71
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.6	#300
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.4	#85

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+4.7	#55

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	1.9%	1.9%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	5.1%	5.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	20.5%	20.6%	0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	20.1%	20.3%	0.7%
Average Seed	8.0	8.0	7.0

.500 or above	43.0%	43.2%	7.4%
.500 or above in Conference	21.2%	21.3%	3.4%
Conference Champion	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	15.1%	15.0%	34.2%

First Four	3.7%	3.7%	0.0%
First Round	18.4%	18.5%	0.7%
Second Round	9.8%	9.9%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	3.0%	3.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	1.1%	1.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Mercyhurst (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 7	1 - 7
Quad 1b	2 - 4	3 - 11
Quad 2	4 - 4	7 - 15
Quad 3	3 - 1	10 - 16
Quad 4	5 - 0	15 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	361	Mercyhurst	W	77-50	99%
Nov 07, 2025	277	Boston University	W	71-54	95%
Nov 10, 2025	232	Cleveland St.	W	73-58	92%
Nov 14, 2025	84	@ DePaul	L	68-69	45%
Nov 21, 2025	46	Virginia	L	59-63	36%
Nov 23, 2025	70	South Carolina	L	65-66	49%
Nov 27, 2025	73	Oklahoma St.	W	73-72	51%
Dec 03, 2025	26	@ Wisconsin	L	64-74	19%
Dec 06, 2025	27	Ohio St.	L	68-72	36%
Dec 13, 2025	238	Jackson St.	W	76-61	91%
Dec 16, 2025	261	Valparaiso	W	77-61	92%
Dec 20, 2025	66	Butler	L	69-70	47%
Dec 30, 2025	324	Howard	W	82-61	96%
Jan 03, 2026	87	Minnesota	W	66-61	66%
Jan 08, 2026	21	@ Michigan St.	L	61-72	18%
Jan 11, 2026	81	@ Rutgers	L	68-70	44%
Jan 14, 2026	15	Illinois	L	71-77	30%
Jan 17, 2026	60	Nebraska	W	70-68	56%
Jan 21, 2026	29	@ USC	L	65-74	22%
Jan 24, 2026	14	@ UCLA	L	59-71	15%
Jan 29, 2026	90	Penn St.	W	73-68	67%
Jan 31, 2026	48	Washington	L	69-70	50%
Feb 04, 2026	15	@ Illinois	L	68-80	16%
Feb 08, 2026	32	@ Iowa	L	68-77	24%
Feb 11, 2026	6	Michigan	L	67-75	24%
Feb 14, 2026	60	@ Nebraska	L	67-71	36%
Feb 18, 2026	40	Maryland	L	68-70	44%
Feb 24, 2026	34	@ Indiana	L	64-73	24%
Feb 28, 2026	28	Oregon	L	67-70	39%
Mar 04, 2026	2	Purdue	L	62-74	15%
Mar 07, 2026	87	@ Minnesota	L	63-64	47%
Projected Record						15 - 16	7 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Ten Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st															0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.3	1st
2nd														0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0				0.7	2nd
3rd													0.0	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0					1.2	3rd
4th												0.0	0.3	0.7	0.6	0.1	0.0						1.7	4th
5th												0.2	0.9	0.9	0.2								2.2	5th
6th										0.0	0.1	0.9	1.2	0.4	0.0	0.0							2.7	6th
7th										0.0	0.6	1.7	0.9	0.1									3.3	7th
8th									0.0	0.5	2.0	1.6	0.3	0.0									4.4	8th
9th								0.0	0.2	1.6	2.5	0.6	0.0										5.0	9th
10th								0.1	1.1	2.9	1.5	0.1	0.0										5.8	10th
11th							0.0	0.6	3.0	2.5	0.5	0.0											6.6	11th
12th							0.3	2.4	3.9	1.1	0.1												7.8	12th
13th					0.0	0.2	1.9	4.2	2.0	0.2	0.0												8.4	13th
14th					0.1	1.5	4.3	3.0	0.5	0.0													9.4	14th
15th				0.1	1.2	4.0	3.9	0.9	0.0														10.2	15th
16th		0.0	0.1	1.2	4.0	3.9	1.5	0.1	0.0														10.8	16th
17th		0.2	1.5	3.5	3.6	1.5	0.2																10.6	17th
18th	0.7	2.0	3.2	2.3	0.7	0.1	0.0																9.0	18th

Total	0.7	2.2	4.8	7.1	9.6	11.3	12.0	11.4	10.8	8.9	7.2	5.1	3.7	2.4	1.5	0.8	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0				Total

Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	73.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0
17-3	49.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0
16-4	31.8%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
15-5	7.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
14-6	1.9%	0.0			0.0	0.0
13-7	0.0%
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.3%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	0.0%		100.0%	50.0%	50.0%	1.8		0.0	0.0	0.0																100.0%
18-2	0.1%		100.0%	27.0%	73.0%	1.7		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															100.0%
17-3	0.2%		100.0%	10.6%	89.4%	2.5		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0														100.0%
16-4	0.4%		100.0%	14.3%	85.7%	3.1		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0												100.0%
15-5	0.8%		100.0%	5.8%	94.2%	4.4		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0										100.0%
14-6	1.5%		99.7%	7.1%	92.6%	5.2			0.0	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0							0.0		99.7%
13-7	2.4%		97.2%	2.9%	94.3%	6.5			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0							0.1		97.2%
12-8	3.7%		92.7%	0.9%	91.8%	7.5				0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.0						0.3		92.7%
11-9	5.1%		80.6%	0.9%	79.7%	8.4					0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.0	1.1	0.8	0.2						1.0		80.4%
10-10	7.2%		59.4%	0.2%	59.2%	9.2					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	1.1	1.3	0.7						2.9		59.3%
9-11	8.9%		27.8%	0.3%	27.4%	9.9						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.9	0.8	0.0	0.0				6.4		27.5%
8-12	10.8%		8.2%	0.1%	8.1%	10.4									0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.0	0.0				9.9		8.1%
7-13	11.4%		1.6%	0.0%	1.5%	10.8											0.0	0.1	0.0					11.2		1.5%
6-14	12.0%		0.1%		0.1%	11.3												0.0	0.0					12.0		0.1%
5-15	11.3%																							11.3
4-16	9.6%																							9.6
3-17	7.1%																							7.1
2-18	4.8%																							4.8
1-19	2.2%																							2.2
0-20	0.7%																							0.7

Total	100%		20.5%	0.4%	20.1%	8.0		0.1	0.3	0.6	0.9	1.3	1.9	2.5	3.3	3.6	3.7	2.3	0.1	0.0				79.5		20.1%