Northwestern
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#56
Expected Predictive Rating+8.7#63
Pace62.9#321
Improvement+1.8#102

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#68
First Shot+4.7#56
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#195
Layup/Dunks+2.0#107
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#63
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#229
Freethrows+2.3#57
Improvement+4.1#18

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#52
First Shot+2.3#104
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#9
Layups/Dunks+0.6#147
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#226
Freethrows+0.2#174
Improvement-2.3#299
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.8% 17.1% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.6% 16.9% 6.1%
Average Seed 10.1 10.1 10.4
.500 or above 62.9% 75.4% 43.8%
.500 or above in Conference 5.8% 8.5% 1.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.2% 8.1% 23.6%
First Four6.6% 8.4% 3.7%
First Round9.6% 13.0% 4.2%
Second Round3.9% 5.5% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.2% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: USC (Home) - 60.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 53 - 11
Quad 24 - 47 - 15
Quad 35 - 112 - 15
Quad 45 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 267   Lehigh W 90-46 95%     1 - 0 +35.6 +16.8 +20.3
  Nov 09, 2024 80   @ Dayton L 66-71 50%     1 - 1 +4.8 -2.8 +7.5
  Nov 12, 2024 123   Illinois-Chicago W 83-74 83%     2 - 1 +8.6 +5.9 +2.5
  Nov 15, 2024 332   Eastern Illinois W 67-58 OT 97%     3 - 1 -4.2 -4.7 +1.2
  Nov 19, 2024 189   Montana St. W 72-69 89%     4 - 1 -0.8 +3.8 -4.3
  Nov 22, 2024 217   Pepperdine W 68-50 92%     5 - 1 +12.4 -3.3 +16.6
  Nov 28, 2024 75   Butler L 69-71 59%     5 - 2 +5.5 +1.5 +3.9
  Nov 29, 2024 101   UNLV W 66-61 69%     6 - 2 +9.6 +3.7 +6.6
  Dec 03, 2024 60   @ Iowa L 79-80 42%     6 - 3 0 - 1 +10.9 +8.4 +2.4
  Dec 06, 2024 13   Illinois W 70-66 OT 32%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +18.7 -0.5 +18.9
  Dec 15, 2024 99   Georgia Tech W 71-60 69%     8 - 3 +15.8 +2.0 +13.8
  Dec 21, 2024 112   DePaul W 84-64 81%     9 - 3 +20.7 +9.6 +10.9
  Dec 29, 2024 206   Northeastern W 85-60 91%     10 - 3 +20.3 +19.7 +3.3
  Jan 02, 2025 50   @ Penn St. L 80-84 39%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +8.7 +10.2 -1.4
  Jan 05, 2025 9   @ Purdue L 61-79 16%     10 - 5 1 - 3 +2.4 +0.7 +0.5
  Jan 12, 2025 15   Michigan St. L 68-78 33%     10 - 6 1 - 4 +4.4 +4.2 +0.1
  Jan 16, 2025 16   Maryland W 76-74 OT 34%     11 - 6 2 - 4 +16.2 +5.4 +10.6
  Jan 19, 2025 18   @ Michigan L 76-80 OT 20%     11 - 7 2 - 5 +14.6 +5.7 +9.2
  Jan 22, 2025 53   Indiana W 79-70 59%     12 - 7 3 - 5 +16.6 +13.0 +4.0
  Jan 26, 2025 13   @ Illinois L 74-83 18%     12 - 8 3 - 6 +10.7 +12.8 -2.4
  Jan 29, 2025 63   Rutgers L 72-79 63%     12 - 9 3 - 7 -0.6 +7.4 -8.5
  Feb 01, 2025 17   Wisconsin L 69-75 34%     12 - 10 3 - 8 +8.1 +10.0 -2.7
  Feb 04, 2025 54   USC W 71-69 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 89   @ Washington W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 11, 2025 45   @ Oregon L 68-72 32%    
  Feb 16, 2025 48   Nebraska W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 20, 2025 25   @ Ohio St. L 65-72 23%    
  Feb 25, 2025 92   @ Minnesota W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 28, 2025 60   Iowa W 78-75 63%    
  Mar 03, 2025 29   UCLA L 65-67 44%    
  Mar 08, 2025 16   @ Maryland L 66-75 18%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.5 1.6 0.2 2.3 8th
9th 0.2 3.0 1.8 0.0 5.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.6 4.5 0.6 6.6 10th
11th 0.4 6.1 3.1 0.1 9.6 11th
12th 0.0 2.2 7.2 0.7 0.0 10.1 12th
13th 0.3 7.3 4.3 0.1 12.0 13th
14th 0.0 2.5 9.3 1.1 13.0 14th
15th 0.4 7.5 4.8 0.1 12.8 15th
16th 0.1 3.9 8.4 0.9 13.3 16th
17th 0.0 1.2 5.4 2.0 0.0 8.7 17th
18th 0.6 2.4 2.2 0.1 5.4 18th
Total 0.7 3.8 11.9 20.8 24.9 20.5 11.8 4.6 1.0 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 1.0% 89.7% 89.7% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 89.7%
10-10 4.6% 74.2% 0.9% 73.4% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.0 1.2 74.0%
9-11 11.8% 43.5% 0.6% 42.9% 10.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.9 0.2 6.7 43.1%
8-12 20.5% 14.2% 0.2% 14.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 0.4 17.6 14.0%
7-13 24.9% 1.1% 1.1% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 24.6 1.1%
6-14 20.8% 20.8
5-15 11.9% 11.9
4-16 3.8% 3.8
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.8% 0.2% 12.6% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.3 5.7 0.6 87.2 12.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%