Northwestern
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#51
Expected Predictive Rating+9.2#62
Pace63.2#311
Improvement+1.8#119

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#62
First Shot+5.2#53
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#189
Layup/Dunks+2.2#102
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#61
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#225
Freethrows+2.4#50
Improvement+2.6#62

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#44
First Shot+2.8#86
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#9
Layups/Dunks+0.8#143
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#221
Freethrows+0.2#169
Improvement-0.8#232
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 5.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.2% 4.7% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.1 11.1 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.0% 4.5% 0.0%
First Round1.8% 2.7% 0.0%
Second Round0.7% 1.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 53 - 12
Quad 25 - 48 - 15
Quad 34 - 112 - 16
Quad 45 - 017 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 280   Lehigh W 90-46 96%     1 - 0 +34.5 +16.4 +19.7
  Nov 09, 2024 74   @ Dayton L 66-71 53%     1 - 1 +5.2 -2.4 +7.6
  Nov 12, 2024 173   Illinois-Chicago W 83-74 90%     2 - 1 +5.6 +6.0 -0.7
  Nov 15, 2024 320   Eastern Illinois W 67-58 OT 97%     3 - 1 -3.3 -2.1 -0.6
  Nov 19, 2024 175   Montana St. W 72-69 91%     4 - 1 -0.6 +3.9 -4.2
  Nov 22, 2024 217   Pepperdine W 68-50 93%     5 - 1 +12.2 -5.3 +18.5
  Nov 28, 2024 72   Butler L 69-71 62%     5 - 2 +5.8 +0.5 +5.2
  Nov 29, 2024 92   UNLV W 66-61 70%     6 - 2 +10.6 +6.6 +4.7
  Dec 03, 2024 63   @ Iowa L 79-80 46%     6 - 3 0 - 1 +10.9 +8.1 +2.9
  Dec 06, 2024 17   Illinois W 70-66 OT 38%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +18.1 -2.4 +20.2
  Dec 15, 2024 95   Georgia Tech W 71-60 71%     8 - 3 +16.2 +2.7 +13.5
  Dec 21, 2024 116   DePaul W 84-64 84%     9 - 3 +20.4 +9.6 +10.5
  Dec 29, 2024 209   Northeastern W 85-60 93%     10 - 3 +19.6 +19.6 +2.7
  Jan 02, 2025 58   @ Penn St. L 80-84 43%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +8.7 +10.6 -1.8
  Jan 05, 2025 16   @ Purdue L 61-79 19%     10 - 5 1 - 3 +2.0 -1.3 +2.1
  Jan 12, 2025 8   Michigan St. L 68-78 29%     10 - 6 1 - 4 +6.7 +6.6 +0.0
  Jan 16, 2025 11   Maryland W 76-74 OT 33%     11 - 6 2 - 4 +17.5 +7.7 +9.6
  Jan 19, 2025 30   @ Michigan L 76-80 OT 28%     11 - 7 2 - 5 +13.0 +6.4 +6.9
  Jan 22, 2025 42   Indiana W 79-70 57%     12 - 7 3 - 5 +18.1 +14.9 +3.6
  Jan 26, 2025 17   @ Illinois L 74-83 20%     12 - 8 3 - 6 +10.6 +11.2 -0.8
  Jan 29, 2025 65   Rutgers L 72-79 69%     12 - 9 3 - 7 -1.1 +5.6 -7.2
  Feb 01, 2025 15   Wisconsin L 69-75 36%     12 - 10 3 - 8 +8.6 +10.8 -3.0
  Feb 04, 2025 62   USC W 77-75 66%     13 - 10 4 - 8 +8.5 +15.0 -6.3
  Feb 08, 2025 104   @ Washington L 71-76 66%     13 - 11 4 - 9 +1.7 +6.9 -5.6
  Feb 11, 2025 34   @ Oregon L 75-81 30%     13 - 12 4 - 10 +10.4 +14.1 -4.0
  Feb 16, 2025 57   Nebraska L 64-68 64%     13 - 13 4 - 11 +3.3 -2.9 +6.0
  Feb 20, 2025 37   @ Ohio St. W 70-49 31%     14 - 13 5 - 11 +37.1 +12.4 +27.2
  Feb 25, 2025 86   @ Minnesota W 75-63 56%     15 - 13 6 - 11 +21.4 +13.8 +8.6
  Feb 28, 2025 63   Iowa W 68-57 67%     16 - 13 7 - 11 +17.4 +4.3 +14.8
  Mar 03, 2025 24   UCLA L 69-73 43%     16 - 14 7 - 12 +8.8 +9.7 -1.2
  Mar 08, 2025 11   @ Maryland L 61-74 17%     16 - 15 7 - 13 +8.0 +0.8 +7.1
  Mar 12, 2025 86   Minnesota W 66-62 66%    
Projected Record 17 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 100.0 100.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13 100.0% 3.5% 0.4% 3.2% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.3 0.9 96.5 3.2%
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.5% 0.4% 3.2% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.3 0.9 96.5 3.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 9.6 5.6 36.1 47.2 11.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 54.2% 10.9 8.3 43.8 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.0% 27.4% 11.2 21.6 5.7
Lose Out 33.0%