Northwestern
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.0 #60
Expected Predictive Rating +5.7 #92
Pace 64.9 #286
Improvement -1.8 #259

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #53 B- A- A+ B C
Defense #96 A- C C+ C+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #130 1.30 #50 +4.0 #55
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #111 0.88 #38 +2.6 #57
Three Pointers 36% #289 0.96 #256 -3.6 #304
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #94 +3.0 #94
Freethrows 19.3 #93 73% #168 14.2 #92
Second Chance 31.2% #164 1.34 #3 0.42 #35
Turnovers 12.6% #12
Total Offense +6.1 #53

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #250 1.11 #114 +2.3 #100
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #62 0.70 #99 -0.9 #256
Three Pointers 39% #239 0.87 #30 +3.9 #42
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #45 +5.2 #45
Freethrows 16.0 #121 74% #230 11.8 #137
Second Chance 32.7% #268 0.95 #56 0.31 #154
Turnovers 17.1% #139
Total Defense +2.9 #96

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #224 -1.4% #72
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.5% #80 -9.0% #40
Possession Length 16.7 #118 19.2 #360
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #47 0.15 #106
Improvement -1.2 #248 -0.6 #226

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 5.1% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.0% 5.0% 1.1%
Average Seed 10.5 10.3 10.6
.500 or above 11.1% 24.2% 7.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.6% 2.0% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.0% 3.1% 12.2%
First Four1.4% 3.1% 0.8%
First Round1.3% 3.5% 0.6%
Second Round0.4% 1.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UCLA (Away) - 24.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 101 - 10
Quad 1b1 - 23 - 12
Quad 23 - 45 - 17
Quad 32 - 18 - 18
Quad 46 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 306 Mercyhurst W 70 - 47 96% +12  1 - 0 +12 -3 F A+ C +16 A+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 285 Boston University W 76 - 52 95% +18  2 - 0 +14 +7 B- C- A +11 A A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 10 316 Cleveland St. W 110 - 63 97% +24  3 - 0 +35 +22 A+ A+ A+ +10 A- C A
 Fri, Nov 14 99 @DePaul W 81 - 79 53% +3  4 - 0 +10 +17 A+ C A- -7 B F A
 Fri, Nov 21 16 Virginia L 78 - 83 20% +1  4 - 1 +13 +13 A+ B A+ +0 A+ C+ B
 Sun, Nov 23 69 South Carolina W 79 - 77 54% +3  5 - 1 +10 +18 A+ F C- -8 B+ F D-
 Thu, Nov 27 61 Oklahoma St. L 81 - 86 50% -2  5 - 2 +4 +8 C A+ A -4 A+ F C-
 Wed, Dec 3 35 @Wisconsin L 73 - 85 23% -16  5 - 3 0 - 1 +5 +7 D+ A+ D+ -3 C- A+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 30 Ohio St. L 82 - 86 41% -0  5 - 4 0 - 2 +7 +11 B- A+ F -3 D B+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 325 Jackson St. W 93 - 53 97% +18  6 - 4 +27 +9 B- C B +16 A+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 167 Valparaiso W 86 - 70 88% +12  7 - 4 +12 +15 A+ A+ A+ -3 C- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 59 Butler L 58 - 61 48% -4  7 - 5 +7 -9 F F A- +15 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 265 Howard W 80 - 60 94% +5  8 - 5 +11 +14 A+ F A+ -1 C C A-
 Sat, Jan 3 71 Minnesota L 78 - 84 65% +2  8 - 6 0 - 3 -1 +13 A+ D A+ -14 F D- B-
 Thu, Jan 8 11 @Michigan St. L 66 - 76 10% -0  8 - 7 0 - 4 +13 +11 D+ B+ A+ +2 B+ F A+
 Sun, Jan 11 115 @Rutgers L 75 - 77 OT 61% +4  8 - 8 0 - 5 +4 +5 F C A+ -1 C A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 9 Illinois L 68 - 79 21% -5  8 - 9 0 - 6 +6 +14 F A+ C+ -9 C F C
 Sat, Jan 17 14 Nebraska L 58 - 77 28% -7  8 - 10 0 - 7 -4 +2 B B B- -9 C D- F
 Wed, Jan 21 48 @USC W 74 - 68 32% +1  9 - 10 1 - 7 +20 +12 D+ B A+ +8 A+ A F
 Sat, Jan 24 36 @UCLA L 68 - 75 24%
 Thu, Jan 29 116 Penn St. W 80 - 71 80%
 Sat, Jan 31 47 Washington W 75 - 74 54%
 Wed, Feb 4 9 @Illinois L 68 - 82 9%
 Sun, Feb 8 23 @Iowa L 65 - 75 16%
 Wed, Feb 11 1 Michigan L 72 - 85 11%
 Sat, Feb 14 14 @Nebraska L 67 - 79 13%
 Wed, Feb 18 100 Maryland W 77 - 70 74%
 Tue, Feb 24 37 @Indiana L 72 - 79 25%
 Sat, Feb 28 68 Oregon W 75 - 71 64%
 Wed, Mar 4 5 Purdue L 69 - 78 20%
 Sat, Mar 7 71 @Minnesota L 67 - 69 43%
Totals 13 - 18 5 - 15 +9 +6 B- A- A+ +3 A- C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 2.6 0.7 0.0 4.5 11th
12th 0.0 1.2 4.6 2.3 0.2 8.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 6.3 5.6 0.8 0.0 13.5 13th
14th 0.8 7.9 9.8 2.2 0.1 20.8 14th
15th 0.3 5.1 10.7 3.5 0.2 19.8 15th
16th 0.0 2.6 9.0 4.7 0.3 16.7 16th
17th 0.0 0.9 4.8 3.6 0.4 9.8 17th
18th 0.4 1.7 1.6 0.2 3.9 18th
Total 0.4 2.7 9.2 18.8 24.6 21.2 13.7 6.7 2.1 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.6% 74.5% 74.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 74.5%
9-11 2.1% 44.4% 0.2% 44.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 1.1 44.3%
8-12 6.7% 8.8% 0.4% 8.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 6.1 8.5%
7-13 13.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.6 0.4%
6-14 21.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 21.2 0.0%
5-15 24.6% 24.6
4-16 18.8% 18.8
3-17 9.2% 9.2
2-18 2.7% 2.7
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20
Total 100% 2.1% 0.0% 2.0% 10.5 97.9 2.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%