Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.9#97
Expected Predictive Rating+4.5#101
Pace55.1#363
Improvement+0.0#189

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#122
First Shot+3.6#82
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#284
Layup/Dunks-1.6#239
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#228
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#18
Freethrows-0.9#237
Improvement+2.8#41

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#94
First Shot+1.6#119
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#69
Layups/Dunks+0.8#137
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#32
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#334
Freethrows+3.2#16
Improvement-2.8#317
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.5 11.3 12.0
.500 or above 13.9% 19.7% 4.6%
.500 or above in Conference 2.2% 3.4% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.2% 2.9%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Home) - 61.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 9
Quad 22 - 53 - 14
Quad 34 - 37 - 18
Quad 47 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 178   Campbell W 65-56 78%     1 - 0 +5.7 +5.2 +2.2
  Nov 11, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 62-45 98%     2 - 0 -3.2 -10.2 +8.7
  Nov 15, 2024 46   Villanova W 70-60 28%     3 - 0 +20.9 +7.8 +14.3
  Nov 21, 2024 6   Tennessee L 42-64 9%     3 - 1 -2.4 -10.8 +5.0
  Nov 22, 2024 14   St. John's L 55-80 13%     3 - 2 -7.9 +1.1 -11.9
  Nov 26, 2024 271   Manhattan W 74-65 89%     4 - 2 +0.3 +4.3 -2.8
  Nov 29, 2024 319   Holy Cross W 67-41 93%     5 - 2 +14.2 +1.3 +18.5
  Dec 04, 2024 4   @ Florida L 69-87 6%     5 - 3 +4.4 +12.2 -9.4
  Dec 07, 2024 42   @ SMU L 51-63 19%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +2.1 -10.2 +11.0
  Dec 12, 2024 279   Bethune-Cookman W 59-41 90%     6 - 4 +9.0 -1.5 +14.4
  Dec 18, 2024 41   Memphis L 62-64 34%     6 - 5 +7.2 +0.6 +6.4
  Dec 22, 2024 233   American W 63-58 86%     7 - 5 -1.6 -1.8 +1.2
  Dec 31, 2024 91   North Carolina St. W 70-67 55%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +6.6 +13.3 -6.1
  Jan 04, 2025 27   Louisville L 50-70 25%     8 - 6 1 - 2 -8.1 -9.4 -2.1
  Jan 08, 2025 116   @ California L 61-75 48%     8 - 7 1 - 3 -8.7 -6.1 -3.8
  Jan 11, 2025 78   @ Stanford L 65-88 31%     8 - 8 1 - 4 -13.1 +7.0 -24.1
  Jan 15, 2025 42   SMU L 52-54 34%     8 - 9 1 - 5 +7.2 -9.8 +16.7
  Jan 18, 2025 27   @ Louisville L 67-81 13%     8 - 10 1 - 6 +2.9 +1.6 +1.3
  Jan 21, 2025 176   Boston College W 74-56 78%     9 - 10 2 - 6 +14.7 +8.0 +9.1
  Jan 25, 2025 83   Notre Dame L 59-74 50%     9 - 11 2 - 7 -10.2 -1.7 -11.5
  Jan 29, 2025 169   @ Miami (FL) W 82-71 60%     10 - 11 3 - 7 +13.3 +19.7 -4.4
  Feb 01, 2025 118   Virginia Tech L 74-75 68%     10 - 12 3 - 8 -0.9 +12.0 -13.0
  Feb 03, 2025 47   @ Pittsburgh W 73-57 21%     11 - 12 4 - 8 +29.3 +18.7 +13.7
  Feb 08, 2025 99   Georgia Tech W 66-63 62%    
  Feb 15, 2025 118   @ Virginia Tech L 63-64 47%    
  Feb 17, 2025 2   Duke L 55-71 8%    
  Feb 22, 2025 36   @ North Carolina L 63-73 16%    
  Feb 26, 2025 58   @ Wake Forest L 58-65 23%    
  Mar 01, 2025 32   Clemson L 59-65 29%    
  Mar 04, 2025 82   Florida St. W 66-65 53%    
  Mar 08, 2025 104   @ Syracuse L 65-67 41%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.6 3.4 0.7 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.7 5.7 3.2 0.1 9.6 10th
11th 2.9 6.5 0.6 10.1 11th
12th 0.4 7.9 3.7 0.0 12.0 12th
13th 3.2 9.3 1.1 13.5 13th
14th 0.7 9.2 5.4 0.1 15.3 14th
15th 0.1 4.7 10.0 1.2 16.0 15th
16th 2.0 7.3 3.2 0.1 12.6 16th
17th 1.1 1.4 0.1 2.5 17th
18th 0.2 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 3.4 14.1 26.1 27.4 18.6 8.2 2.0 0.2 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.2% 4.2% 4.2% 11.0 0.0 0.2 4.2%
10-10 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 1.9 0.5%
9-11 8.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 8.2
8-12 18.6% 0.1% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 18.6
7-13 27.4% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 27.4
6-14 26.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 26.1
5-15 14.1% 14.1
4-16 3.4% 3.4
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 11.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.3%