Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.8#99
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#85
Pace56.1#361
Improvement+0.3#188

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#86
First Shot+5.0#60
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#267
Layup/Dunks-1.1#220
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.5#11
Freethrows-0.7#219
Improvement+4.1#23

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#131
First Shot+0.1#181
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#78
Layups/Dunks+0.3#156
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#344
Freethrows+3.2#15
Improvement-3.8#337
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 12.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.7% 1.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 10
Quad 21 - 43 - 14
Quad 35 - 28 - 16
Quad 47 - 115 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 220   Campbell W 65-56 84%     1 - 0 +3.0 +3.8 +1.0
  Nov 11, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 62-45 98%     2 - 0 -2.9 -9.9 +8.6
  Nov 15, 2024 45   Villanova W 70-60 26%     3 - 0 +21.5 +8.4 +14.2
  Nov 21, 2024 6   Tennessee L 42-64 8%     3 - 1 -1.8 -12.2 +6.9
  Nov 22, 2024 13   St. John's L 55-80 12%     3 - 2 -7.2 +1.4 -11.5
  Nov 26, 2024 236   Manhattan W 74-65 86%     4 - 2 +2.2 +4.4 -1.0
  Nov 29, 2024 319   Holy Cross W 67-41 93%     5 - 2 +13.7 +1.6 +17.8
  Dec 04, 2024 3   @ Florida L 69-87 3%     5 - 3 +8.2 +13.4 -6.8
  Dec 07, 2024 50   @ SMU L 51-63 20%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +1.8 -11.6 +12.0
  Dec 12, 2024 290   Bethune-Cookman W 59-41 91%     6 - 4 +7.8 -3.7 +15.5
  Dec 18, 2024 48   Memphis L 62-64 37%     6 - 5 +6.3 +0.6 +5.5
  Dec 22, 2024 249   American W 63-58 87%     7 - 5 -2.5 -0.2 -1.4
  Dec 31, 2024 106   North Carolina St. W 70-67 64%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +4.1 +12.6 -7.9
  Jan 04, 2025 23   Louisville L 50-70 21%     8 - 6 1 - 2 -6.8 -7.6 -2.6
  Jan 08, 2025 111   @ California L 61-75 44%     8 - 7 1 - 3 -7.6 -4.9 -3.9
  Jan 11, 2025 84   @ Stanford L 65-88 33%     8 - 8 1 - 4 -13.6 +8.6 -26.1
  Jan 15, 2025 50   SMU L 52-54 37%     8 - 9 1 - 5 +6.2 -11.4 +17.4
  Jan 18, 2025 23   @ Louisville L 67-81 10%     8 - 10 1 - 6 +4.7 +3.6 +1.1
  Jan 21, 2025 168   Boston College W 74-56 78%     9 - 10 2 - 6 +14.7 +9.9 +7.2
  Jan 25, 2025 93   Notre Dame L 59-74 58%     9 - 11 2 - 7 -12.4 -1.9 -13.5
  Jan 29, 2025 174   @ Miami (FL) W 82-71 61%     10 - 11 3 - 7 +13.0 +20.0 -5.1
  Feb 01, 2025 132   Virginia Tech L 74-75 71%     10 - 12 3 - 8 -2.0 +12.7 -14.8
  Feb 03, 2025 60   @ Pittsburgh W 73-57 23%     11 - 12 4 - 8 +28.4 +18.7 +12.8
  Feb 08, 2025 95   Georgia Tech W 75-61 59%     12 - 12 5 - 8 +16.4 +19.5 -0.4
  Feb 15, 2025 132   @ Virginia Tech W 73-70 51%     13 - 12 6 - 8 +7.5 +13.8 -5.8
  Feb 17, 2025 1   Duke L 62-80 5%     13 - 13 6 - 9 +5.9 +8.9 -5.8
  Feb 22, 2025 36   @ North Carolina L 66-81 15%     13 - 14 6 - 10 +1.1 +3.9 -3.9
  Feb 26, 2025 61   @ Wake Forest W 83-75 24%     14 - 14 7 - 10 +20.0 +22.0 -1.6
  Mar 01, 2025 21   Clemson L 58-71 20%     14 - 15 7 - 11 +0.7 -0.9 -0.1
  Mar 04, 2025 82   Florida St. W 60-57 53%     15 - 15 8 - 11 +7.0 +0.7 +6.7
  Mar 08, 2025 100   @ Syracuse L 70-84 41%     15 - 16 8 - 12 -6.9 +3.2 -10.9
  Mar 12, 2025 95   Georgia Tech L 66-67 49%    
Projected Record 15 - 17 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 100.0 100.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 100.0% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.1 100.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 12.0 0.1 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 51.1%