Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.9 #16
Expected Predictive Rating +21.2 #12
Pace 64.3 #300
Improvement +2.5 #69

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #19 A- A+ B+ C B-
Defense #18 A+ B+ C- B A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #220 1.23 #97 +0.5 #158
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #311 0.91 #29 -1.3 #242
Three Pointers 49% #37 1.14 #33 +7.0 #17
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #36 +6.2 #36
Freethrows 17.6 #166 73% #192 12.8 #170
Second Chance 36.6% #34 1.27 #8 0.47 #10
Turnovers 14.1% #54
Total Offense +9.6 #19

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #256 0.92 #4 +5.9 #26
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #22 0.69 #80 -1.9 #320
Three Pointers 36% #306 0.90 #55 +4.6 #29
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #7 +8.5 #7
Freethrows 15.0 #70 71% #122 10.7 #65
Second Chance 30.4% #168 0.87 #17 0.26 #53
Turnovers 15.8% #217
Total Defense +8.3 #18

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #89 -2.3% #27
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.6% #34 -14.7% #8
Possession Length 16.1 #67 19.9 #365
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #103 0.14 #73
Improvement -1.8 #290 +4.3 #14

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.3% 4.2% 0.8%
Top 2 Seed 11.9% 14.6% 4.5%
Top 4 Seed 53.7% 60.3% 35.9%
Top 6 Seed 90.3% 93.7% 81.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 99.9% 99.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 99.9% 99.7%
Average Seed 4.4 4.1 5.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 26.9% 31.8% 13.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.9% 99.9% 99.7%
Second Round86.6% 88.9% 80.3%
Sweet Sixteen47.9% 50.8% 39.8%
Elite Eight20.8% 22.6% 15.9%
Final Four8.8% 9.9% 5.8%
Championship Game3.6% 4.1% 2.2%
National Champion1.4% 1.6% 0.8%

Next Game: North Carolina (Home) - 73.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 14 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 4
Quad 29 - 216 - 6
Quad 35 - 021 - 6
Quad 46 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 354 Rider W 87 - 53 100% +17  1 - 0 +18 +16 C- A+ A +5 B B+ A
 Fri, Nov 7 346 NC Central W 81 - 62 99% +19  2 - 0 +4 +10 C A+ D -4 A- B- F
 Tue, Nov 11 230 Hampton W 91 - 53 98% +24  3 - 0 +31 +20 A+ A+ F +12 A+ B- D+
 Sat, Nov 15 163 Marshall W 104 - 78 96% +20  4 - 0 +23 +21 A+ A+ A+ -0 A+ F C+
 Fri, Nov 21 60 Northwestern W 83 - 78 80% -1  5 - 0 +14 +12 D+ A+ B- +2 C+ A D-
 Sun, Nov 23 59 Butler L 73 - 80 79% -5  5 - 1 +3 +5 D+ A A -2 D A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 28 177 Queens W 94 - 69 97% +12  6 - 1 +21 +23 A+ F B- +0 A+ F B
 Wed, Dec 3 38 @Texas W 88 - 69 57% +6  7 - 1 +35 +26 A+ B+ A +10 A+ A- D-
 Sat, Dec 6 73 Dayton W 86 - 73 83% +2  8 - 1 +21 +15 A+ A+ F +5 B+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 330 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84 - 60 99% +12  9 - 1 +10 +11 A+ F A+ +1 C- C+ C+
 Sat, Dec 20 100 Maryland W 80 - 72 92% -0  10 - 1 +10 +12 B+ D- A+ -2 F B A+
 Mon, Dec 22 224 American W 95 - 51 98% +18  11 - 1 +37 +29 A+ A+ A- +12 A+ B- D+
 Wed, Dec 31 58 @Virginia Tech L 85 - 95 3OT 69% -8  11 - 2 0 - 1 +3 -5 D+ F C +10 A+ C C
 Sat, Jan 3 26 @North Carolina St. W 76 - 61 49% +12  12 - 2 1 - 1 +33 +18 A+ A+ C +17 A+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 75 California W 84 - 60 89% +5  13 - 2 2 - 1 +29 +16 A+ A+ C +13 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 77 Stanford W 70 - 55 89% +6  14 - 2 3 - 1 +20 +7 B B- A+ +14 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 13 @Louisville W 79 - 70 37% +2  15 - 2 4 - 1 +30 +19 A+ A+ F +11 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 29 @SMU W 72 - 68 52% -1  16 - 2 5 - 1 +21 +14 C+ A+ C+ +8 A+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 24 31 North Carolina W 79 - 72 73%
 Tue, Jan 27 84 @Notre Dame W 73 - 65 77%
 Sat, Jan 31 134 @Boston College W 74 - 61 89%
 Tue, Feb 3 91 Pittsburgh W 78 - 63 92%
 Sat, Feb 7 67 Syracuse W 79 - 66 88%
 Tue, Feb 10 111 @Florida St. W 83 - 72 85%
 Sat, Feb 14 30 Ohio St. W 76 - 72 63%
 Wed, Feb 18 113 @Georgia Tech W 79 - 68 85%
 Sat, Feb 21 40 Miami (FL) W 78 - 69 78%
 Tue, Feb 24 26 North Carolina St. W 77 - 71 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 3 @Duke L 69 - 76 25%
 Tue, Mar 3 63 Wake Forest W 79 - 67 87%
 Sat, Mar 7 58 Virginia Tech W 78 - 67 85%
Totals 26 - 5 14 - 4 +18 +10 A- A+ B+ +8 A+ B+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.3 8.4 11.8 4.3 26.9 1st
2nd 0.6 6.1 17.7 17.9 6.3 48.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.8 4.2 0.7 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 5.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.1 2.7 5th
6th 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 7.3 15.0 24.4 27.0 18.1 4.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 4.3    3.7 0.7
16-2 65.0% 11.8    6.5 5.1 0.2 0.0
15-3 31.0% 8.4    2.8 4.4 1.2 0.0
14-4 9.3% 2.3    0.3 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-5 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 26.9% 26.9 13.2 11.2 2.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 4.3% 100.0% 31.6% 68.4% 2.2 1.2 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 18.1% 100.0% 24.0% 76.0% 3.1 1.5 4.3 5.9 4.8 1.3 0.3 100.0%
15-3 27.0% 100.0% 19.2% 80.8% 3.9 0.5 2.2 6.9 9.3 6.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 24.4% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 4.7 0.1 0.5 2.9 7.1 7.9 4.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.0% 99.9% 11.9% 88.0% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.7 4.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 7.3% 99.7% 7.2% 92.5% 6.2 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.6 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-7 2.8% 98.7% 4.2% 94.6% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 98.7%
10-8 0.9% 97.2% 2.8% 94.4% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.1%
9-9 0.1% 96.6% 3.4% 93.1% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.4%
8-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 17.1% 82.8% 4.4 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 1.4 64.8 33.8 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 100.0% 2.0 26.9 46.3 23.9 2.2 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 2.4 17.2 33.7 38.5 10.7