North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.1#91
Expected Predictive Rating+1.3#151
Pace62.8#324
Improvement-1.8#271

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#100
First Shot+1.1#141
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#95
Layup/Dunks+5.8#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#201
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#332
Freethrows+1.1#108
Improvement-2.0#295

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#81
First Shot+3.4#80
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#189
Layups/Dunks-2.3#270
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#28
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#19
Freethrows-1.4#280
Improvement+0.2#177
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.3 11.3 n/a
.500 or above 16.4% 25.1% 7.4%
.500 or above in Conference 3.8% 6.5% 1.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.5% 1.8% 9.3%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Away) - 50.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 8
Quad 22 - 73 - 15
Quad 34 - 36 - 18
Quad 48 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 346   South Carolina Upstate W 97-66 96%     1 - 0 +16.5 +10.3 +4.2
  Nov 08, 2024 283   Presbyterian W 81-72 92%     2 - 0 -0.2 +5.4 -5.2
  Nov 13, 2024 309   Coastal Carolina W 82-70 94%     3 - 0 +1.0 +2.3 -1.4
  Nov 18, 2024 239   Colgate W 72-49 89%     4 - 0 +15.9 -7.7 +23.1
  Nov 22, 2024 208   William & Mary W 84-61 85%     5 - 0 +18.1 +0.0 +16.6
  Nov 28, 2024 9   Purdue L 61-71 14%     5 - 1 +8.0 +6.5 -0.4
  Nov 29, 2024 33   BYU L 61-72 23%     5 - 2 +2.7 -2.1 +3.8
  Dec 04, 2024 30   Texas L 59-63 30%     5 - 3 +7.6 +2.6 +4.3
  Dec 07, 2024 82   Florida St. W 84-74 OT 55%     6 - 3 1 - 0 +14.8 +15.1 -0.2
  Dec 10, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 66-56 98%     7 - 3 -10.2 -5.5 -3.7
  Dec 14, 2024 7   @ Kansas L 60-75 8%     7 - 4 +6.5 +7.2 -2.7
  Dec 22, 2024 303   Rider W 89-63 93%     8 - 4 +15.5 +14.9 +1.8
  Dec 31, 2024 97   @ Virginia L 67-70 45%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +4.4 +11.8 -8.0
  Jan 04, 2025 58   @ Wake Forest L 59-77 28%     8 - 6 1 - 2 -5.8 +1.2 -8.8
  Jan 08, 2025 83   Notre Dame W 66-65 55%     9 - 6 2 - 2 +5.8 +4.2 +1.8
  Jan 11, 2025 36   North Carolina L 61-63 35%     9 - 7 2 - 3 +8.2 -0.7 +8.7
  Jan 15, 2025 118   @ Virginia Tech L 76-79 54%     9 - 8 2 - 4 +2.1 +12.8 -11.0
  Jan 18, 2025 116   California L 62-65 71%     9 - 9 2 - 5 -2.6 -3.9 +0.9
  Jan 25, 2025 42   SMU L 57-63 38%     9 - 10 2 - 6 +3.2 -8.0 +10.7
  Jan 27, 2025 2   @ Duke L 64-74 5%     9 - 11 2 - 7 +15.5 +6.0 +9.2
  Feb 01, 2025 32   Clemson L 58-68 31%     9 - 12 2 - 8 +1.4 -1.6 +1.5
  Feb 05, 2025 116   @ California W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 08, 2025 78   @ Stanford L 67-71 34%    
  Feb 12, 2025 27   Louisville L 68-74 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 176   Boston College W 74-65 82%    
  Feb 19, 2025 36   @ North Carolina L 69-78 19%    
  Feb 22, 2025 58   Wake Forest L 65-66 49%    
  Feb 26, 2025 104   @ Syracuse L 70-71 45%    
  Mar 01, 2025 99   @ Georgia Tech L 69-70 43%    
  Mar 05, 2025 47   Pittsburgh L 69-71 44%    
  Mar 08, 2025 169   @ Miami (FL) W 75-71 62%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.3 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 1.6 0.1 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 3.8 0.6 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.4 4.7 2.8 0.1 8.0 10th
11th 0.0 2.3 5.9 0.7 8.9 11th
12th 0.4 6.5 3.6 0.1 10.6 12th
13th 2.7 8.0 1.1 0.0 11.8 13th
14th 0.6 7.7 4.4 0.2 12.8 14th
15th 0.1 4.5 8.1 0.9 13.6 15th
16th 0.3 3.4 8.7 3.1 0.1 15.6 16th
17th 0.0 1.1 3.6 1.8 0.1 6.7 17th
18th 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.8 18th
Total 0.3 2.2 7.8 15.7 22.1 22.5 16.6 9.0 3.1 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-9 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 11.0 0.0 0.6 1.6%
10-10 3.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 3.1 0.3%
9-11 9.0% 0.6% 0.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 8.9
8-12 16.6% 0.2% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 16.6
7-13 22.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 22.5
6-14 22.1% 22.1
5-15 15.7% 15.7
4-16 7.8% 7.8
3-17 2.2% 2.2
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%