North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.2 #26
Expected Predictive Rating +11.5 #50
Pace 71.4 #108
Improvement -1.0 #241

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #28 A B+ A+ B B-
Defense #33 C A- A+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #164 1.31 #39 +3.2 #84
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #284 0.69 #273 -2.2 #294
Three Pointers 45% #96 1.17 #17 +5.8 #27
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #26 +6.7 #26
Freethrows 18.1 #144 79% #20 14.2 #89
Second Chance 31.0% #173 1.27 #7 0.39 #53
Turnovers 12.5% #11
Total Offense +8.7 #28

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #315 1.08 #81 +4.3 #51
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #345 0.79 #228 +2.2 #34
Three Pointers 52% #6 1.01 #186 -5.7 #352
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #159 +0.8 #159
Freethrows 18.4 #240 67% #15 12.3 #164
Second Chance 23.6% #13 1.06 #208 0.25 #35
Turnovers 21.6% #8
Total Defense +6.5 #33

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #104 0.9% #250
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.7% #26 -2.3% #143
Possession Length 15.6 #40 18.6 #334
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #61 0.18 #196
Improvement -2.2 #302 +1.2 #107

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.0% 3.8% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 17.5% 20.7% 9.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.2% 89.4% 77.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.3% 88.6% 76.7%
Average Seed 7.9 7.8 8.5
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 93.1% 96.2% 84.8%
Conference Champion 2.0% 2.5% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.5% 5.3% 9.7%
First Round83.5% 87.2% 73.8%
Second Round50.7% 54.0% 41.9%
Sweet Sixteen15.9% 17.5% 11.4%
Elite Eight6.2% 7.0% 3.8%
Final Four2.2% 2.6% 1.1%
Championship Game0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Away) - 72.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 8
Quad 29 - 214 - 11
Quad 34 - 117 - 12
Quad 44 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 346 NC Central W 114 - 65 99% +28  1 - 0 +34 +29 A+ A+ A+ +3 D B- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 117 UAB W 94 - 70 92% +11  2 - 0 +24 +15 A+ A+ D- +7 A- B A+
 Wed, Nov 12 294 UNC Greensboro W 110 - 64 98% +15  3 - 0 +35 +23 B+ A+ A+ +10 A+ A- A+
 Mon, Nov 17 55 Virginia Commonwealth W 85 - 79 77% +4  4 - 0 +13 +10 C A+ F +3 A- B B-
 Mon, Nov 24 56 Seton Hall L 74 - 85 69% -8  4 - 1 -1 +7 A- D+ A+ -7 D- F A
 Tue, Nov 25 66 Boise St. W 81 - 70 74% +5  5 - 1 +19 +13 A+ F B+ +6 C A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 38 Texas L 97 - 102 58% -4  5 - 2 +8 +25 A+ A+ A+ -16 F C F
 Wed, Dec 3 27 @Auburn L 73 - 83 40% -5  5 - 3 +8 +6 C+ F A+ +2 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 205 UNC Asheville W 75 - 63 96% +3  6 - 3 +6 +2 D+ A+ D- +4 B+ B B+
 Wed, Dec 10 94 Liberty W 85 - 45 88% +25  7 - 3 +43 +14 A+ F A+ +30 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 19 Kansas L 76 - 77 OT 54% -1  7 - 4 +13 +6 B+ C- A+ +7 B+ A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 17 335 Texas Southern W 108 - 72 99% +24  8 - 4 +22 +27 A+ A+ A+ -5 A- F C+
 Sun, Dec 21 62 Mississippi W 76 - 62 73% +15  9 - 4 +23 +8 A+ A F +15 B- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 31 63 Wake Forest W 70 - 57 82% +7  10 - 4 1 - 0 +19 -1 C+ F C+ +19 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 16 Virginia L 61 - 76 51% -12  10 - 5 1 - 1 -0 +0 D C- C -2 D D+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 134 @Boston College W 79 - 71 84% +7  11 - 5 2 - 1 +13 +25 A+ A+ A+ -11 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 111 @Florida St. W 113 - 69 79% +24  12 - 5 3 - 1 +51 +32 A+ A+ A+ +14 A+ C+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 113 Georgia Tech L 74 - 78 91% -1  12 - 6 3 - 2 -4 -1 C F A- -2 F C+ A+
 Tue, Jan 20 32 @Clemson W 80 - 76 OT 43% +3  13 - 6 4 - 2 +21 +16 A+ F A+ +5 B- C A+
 Sat, Jan 24 91 @Pittsburgh W 77 - 71 73%
 Tue, Jan 27 67 Syracuse W 82 - 72 83%
 Sat, Jan 31 63 @Wake Forest W 80 - 76 63%
 Tue, Feb 3 29 @SMU L 80 - 82 42%
 Sat, Feb 7 58 Virginia Tech W 81 - 73 79%
 Mon, Feb 9 13 @Louisville L 78 - 84 28%
 Sat, Feb 14 40 Miami (FL) W 81 - 75 70%
 Tue, Feb 17 31 North Carolina W 82 - 78 65%
 Tue, Feb 24 16 @Virginia L 71 - 77 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 84 @Notre Dame W 76 - 71 68%
 Mon, Mar 2 3 Duke L 74 - 78 36%
 Sat, Mar 7 77 Stanford W 82 - 71 84%
Totals 20 - 11 11 - 7 +15 +9 A B+ A+ +7 C A- A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.3 2.0 1st
2nd 0.4 2.3 3.6 1.2 0.1 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.0 6.8 2.6 0.2 14.0 3rd
4th 0.1 3.3 9.4 4.5 0.4 17.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 8.8 6.0 0.6 17.0 5th
6th 0.3 5.7 7.1 0.8 0.0 13.9 6th
7th 0.0 2.2 6.4 1.6 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.5 4.0 2.6 0.1 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 2.7 0.5 4.4 9th
10th 0.2 1.6 0.8 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 1.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 0.2 1.0 12th
13th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.8 10.1 16.8 21.3 20.6 14.3 7.3 2.2 0.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 78.6% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 38.3% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 9.4% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1
13-5 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.4% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 3.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.2% 100.0% 20.2% 79.8% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.3% 99.9% 12.7% 87.2% 5.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 14.3% 99.7% 10.7% 89.0% 6.7 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.7 4.8 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 99.7%
12-6 20.6% 98.2% 6.6% 91.6% 7.7 0.1 0.6 2.3 5.6 6.6 3.8 1.1 0.1 0.4 98.1%
11-7 21.3% 94.0% 4.5% 89.5% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 6.0 6.0 3.6 0.6 1.3 93.7%
10-8 16.8% 84.3% 3.4% 80.9% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.5 4.8 1.6 2.6 83.7%
9-9 10.1% 60.5% 1.9% 58.6% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 2.6 0.0 4.0 59.7%
8-10 4.8% 27.7% 1.6% 26.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.0 3.4 26.5%
7-11 1.7% 8.4% 0.3% 8.1% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6 8.1%
6-12 0.4% 0.4
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 86.2% 6.1% 80.1% 7.9 13.8 85.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 3.6 11.1 29.6 51.9 7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 3.9 7.7 23.1 46.2 19.2 3.8