Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Duke 100.0%   1   22 - 2 11 - 1 +23.6      +11.5 11 +12.1 4 65.9 253 +26.8 4 +25.9 1
11 Louisville 99.8%   4   18 - 6 8 - 4 +19.5      +11.7 8 +7.8 21 74.5 46 +16.9 27 +15.6 5
23 Virginia 99.9%   5   21 - 3 10 - 2 +16.4      +8.3 36 +8.1 18 63.7 315 +19.8 14 +20.9 2
26 North Carolina 98.6%   6   19 - 5 7 - 4 +15.4      +9.6 21 +5.8 42 70.8 117 +17.6 22 +14.4 6
27 North Carolina St. 97.7%   7   18 - 7 9 - 3 +15.4      +9.6 23 +5.8 43 72.5 77 +14.4 36 +17.2 4
37 SMU 84.7%   9   17 - 7 6 - 5 +14.1      +10.6 15 +3.5 77 71.9 88 +14.2 37 +13.4 7
38 Clemson 95.4%   8   20 - 5 10 - 2 +14.0      +4.8 72 +9.2 16 62.2 338 +16.1 29 +17.3 3
41 Miami (FL) 77.8%   10   19 - 5 8 - 3 +13.0      +6.8 49 +6.1 37 71.1 113 +14.0 41 +13.4 8
55 Virginia Tech 37.7%   17 - 8 6 - 6 +10.1      +4.8 71 +5.2 51 69.2 165 +12.5 47 +12.2 9
63 Wake Forest 1.9%   12 - 12 3 - 8 +8.5      +5.0 70 +3.5 80 70.8 116 +7.7 74 +6.3 14
67 Syracuse 1.4%   14 - 11 5 - 7 +8.3      +4.8 74 +3.5 79 69.7 149 +7.4 79 +6.8 13
73 California 9.5%   16 - 8 5 - 7 +7.7      +4.1 79 +3.7 73 68.5 187 +10.9 54 +9.8 10
74 Stanford 14.6%   16 - 9 5 - 7 +7.6      +3.9 81 +3.7 71 68.7 182 +9.5 60 +8.5 12
82 Notre Dame 0.1%   11 - 14 2 - 10 +6.7      +3.8 85 +2.9 93 64.5 291 +5.1 93 +1.2 17
93 Florida St. 0.1%   11 - 13 4 - 7 +5.3      +2.4 110 +3.0 91 77.6 15 +5.1 92 +8.6 11
99 Pittsburgh 0.0%   9 - 16 2 - 10 +5.2      +3.0 96 +2.2 104 62.2 339 +2.1 130 +1.8 15
129 Boston College 0.0%   9 - 15 2 - 9 +1.9      -3.5 263 +5.4 48 66.3 244 -1.6 192 +1.2 16
131 Georgia Tech 0.0%   11 - 14 2 - 10 +1.9      -0.2 164 +2.1 109 75.2 31 0.0 160 -0.1 18


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Feb 9 11 Louisville 118 27 North Carolina St. 77   
Tue, Feb 10 41 Miami (FL) 75 26 North Carolina 66   
Tue, Feb 10 93 Florida St. 58 23 Virginia 61   
Tue, Feb 10 3 Duke 70 99 Pittsburgh 54   
Tue, Feb 10 82 Notre Dame 81 37 SMU 89   
Wed, Feb 11 73 California 100 67 Syracuse 107   
Wed, Feb 11 38 Clemson 66 55 Virginia Tech 76   
Wed, Feb 11 129 Boston College 64 74 Stanford 70   
Wed, Feb 11 131 Georgia Tech 67 63 Wake Forest 83   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 14 39 Ohio St. 72 23 Virginia 75 60%   
Sat, Feb 14 41 Miami (FL) 77 27 North Carolina St. 82 70%   
Sat, Feb 14 38 Clemson 60 3 Duke 73 88%   
Sat, Feb 14 42 Baylor 79 11 Louisville 86 75%   
Sat, Feb 14 74 Stanford 74 63 Wake Forest 78 65%   
Sat, Feb 14 37 SMU 82 67 Syracuse 79 61%   
Sat, Feb 14 93 Florida St. 75 55 Virginia Tech 82 77%   
Sat, Feb 14 26 North Carolina 80 99 Pittsburgh 67 89%   
Sat, Feb 14 131 Georgia Tech 70 82 Notre Dame 78 77%   
Sat, Feb 14 129 Boston College 67 73 California 70 61%   
Mon, Feb 16 3 Duke 83 67 Syracuse 64 95%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.1 93.7 5.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
Louisville 4.4 0.3 11.5 22.5 20.8 19.9 13.1 7.8 3.6 0.5 0.1
Virginia 2.3 13.6 60.2 15.7 6.5 2.9 0.9 0.3 0.0
North Carolina 6.1 0.1 2.1 6.9 11.1 14.7 19.8 22.8 14.9 5.5 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 4.0 2.2 17.6 21.4 23.3 17.3 10.2 5.5 2.2 0.3 0.0
SMU 6.7 0.6 3.5 7.8 12.5 18.7 21.7 22.5 7.6 3.2 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Clemson 3.1 4.1 30.1 34.4 17.5 9.8 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0
Miami (FL) 5.4 0.2 6.9 10.3 15.7 17.8 20.9 16.0 9.3 2.4 0.5 0.1
Virginia Tech 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.4 4.6 10.0 19.7 36.1 18.0 6.1 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
Wake Forest 12.3 0.0 0.3 1.5 7.3 10.8 15.7 17.7 17.7 16.6 8.7 2.6 0.9 0.2
Syracuse 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.3 6.7 14.6 23.5 22.4 16.9 9.7 2.9 0.3 0.0
California 9.8 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.9 12.7 24.9 25.5 14.7 8.4 4.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Stanford 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 4.8 13.0 19.7 22.3 18.4 11.2 6.0 2.4 0.4 0.0
Notre Dame 14.9 0.1 0.7 2.4 6.0 10.8 17.6 28.9 17.3 10.2 6.0
Florida St. 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.2 6.7 10.4 16.2 20.1 20.5 14.1 6.4 2.2 0.5 0.0
Pittsburgh 15.5 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.8 6.2 11.0 21.1 28.6 18.2 9.0
Boston College 16.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.8 4.0 8.7 16.2 26.4 24.8 17.0
Georgia Tech 16.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.9 11.1 22.7 30.3 29.8

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 16 - 2 28 - 3 0.1 0.6 4.0 17.3 38.6 39.6
Louisville 12 - 6 23 - 8 0.0 0.7 5.2 18.7 32.3 30.8 12.3
Virginia 14 - 4 26 - 5 0.1 1.0 6.1 20.4 36.4 30.6 5.5
North Carolina 11 - 7 23 - 8 0.1 2.2 9.9 22.2 31.3 23.8 9.4 1.2
North Carolina St. 13 - 5 22 - 9 0.5 4.1 14.6 29.1 31.2 16.8 3.8
SMU 11 - 7 22 - 9 0.0 1.0 4.6 14.4 26.1 29.3 19.1 5.5
Clemson 13 - 5 23 - 8 0.3 3.8 20.3 35.9 29.0 9.6 1.2
Miami (FL) 12 - 6 23 - 8 0.4 3.7 15.9 28.2 29.2 16.7 5.2 0.7
Virginia Tech 9 - 9 20 - 11 0.8 7.0 25.3 35.9 23.0 7.4 0.8
Wake Forest 6 - 12 15 - 16 0.9 5.6 17.1 27.6 27.7 15.4 5.2 0.6
Syracuse 7 - 11 16 - 15 7.3 27.2 35.6 22.5 6.7 0.8 0.0
California 8 - 10 19 - 11 1.2 7.3 18.7 30.2 26.5 13.5 2.6
Stanford 7 - 11 18 - 13 5.2 18.6 31.5 27.5 13.2 3.4 0.5
Notre Dame 5 - 13 14 - 17 1.9 11.9 28.0 31.2 20.6 5.9 0.4
Florida St. 7 - 11 14 - 17 3.4 16.2 28.6 27.9 16.5 6.4 1.0 0.1
Pittsburgh 4 - 14 11 - 20 6.7 22.9 32.6 24.6 10.6 2.4 0.2
Boston College 4 - 14 11 - 20 12.9 30.2 31.1 18.3 6.1 1.4 0.2
Georgia Tech 3 - 15 12 - 19 19.8 39.9 28.3 9.9 1.9 0.2

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 93.7% 82.2 9.9 1.4 0.2 0.0
Louisville 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Virginia 13.6% 4.3 8.0 1.1 0.2 0.0
North Carolina 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Carolina St. 2.2% 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
SMU
Clemson 4.1% 1.1 1.8 1.0 0.1 0.0
Miami (FL) 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Syracuse
California
Stanford
Notre Dame
Florida St.
Pittsburgh
Boston College
Georgia Tech


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 49.3% 50.7% 1   68.6 29.5 1.8 0.1 100.0%
Louisville 99.8% 17.5% 82.3% 4   2.1 6.4 15.9 22.9 23.8 15.9 7.8 3.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 99.7%
Virginia 99.9% 10.1% 89.7% 5   0.3 2.3 10.7 20.2 26.0 23.4 11.5 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.8%
North Carolina 98.6% 5.3% 93.3% 6   0.1 0.3 1.9 5.7 14.9 24.0 24.0 16.2 8.3 2.6 0.7 1.4 98.5%
North Carolina St. 97.7% 6.5% 91.1% 7   0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 8.0 17.2 25.4 22.0 13.5 6.1 1.1 2.4 97.5%
SMU 84.7% 3.2% 81.6% 9   0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.4 6.4 12.2 18.6 20.1 16.4 7.5 0.0 15.3 84.2%
Clemson 95.4% 4.9% 90.5% 8   0.1 0.3 1.2 5.2 13.7 22.8 24.7 17.2 8.4 1.9 4.6 95.2%
Miami (FL) 77.8% 2.4% 75.4% 10   0.1 0.2 1.1 3.3 7.5 14.3 18.8 19.4 13.2 0.0 22.3 77.2%
Virginia Tech 37.7% 0.4% 37.3% 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 5.5 11.3 18.2 0.2 62.3 37.5%
Wake Forest 1.9% 0.1% 1.8% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 0.1 98.1 1.8%
Syracuse 1.4% 0.1% 1.2% 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.1 98.6 1.2%
California 9.5% 0.1% 9.4% 0.1 0.6 2.0 6.7 0.2 90.5 9.4%
Stanford 14.6% 0.1% 14.5% 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.1 8.8 0.1 85.4 14.5%
Notre Dame 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.1%
Florida St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.2 0.0 1.8 16.5 47.3 29.6 4.4 0.3
1st Round 100.0% 7.9 0.0 0.1 3.5 26.6 49.9 18.4 1.4 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 5.3 0.0 0.5 4.6 18.3 33.3 29.8 11.4 2.0 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 98.1% 2.4 1.9 16.9 38.1 30.3 10.9 1.9 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 79.8% 1.2 20.2 49.7 25.3 4.4 0.4 0.0
Final Four 50.3% 0.6 49.7 43.7 6.5 0.2
Final Game 28.0% 0.3 72.0 27.1 0.9
Champion 13.9% 0.1 86.1 13.9

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.6% 80.9% 56.7% 35.3% 20.7% 11.0%
Louisville 99.8% 0.1% 99.7% 88.2% 51.1% 23.1% 11.0% 4.9% 2.0%
Virginia 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 79.8% 35.4% 12.2% 4.2% 1.4% 0.4%
North Carolina 98.6% 0.6% 98.4% 65.1% 21.5% 7.4% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2%
North Carolina St. 97.7% 1.0% 97.2% 58.7% 17.9% 6.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%
SMU 84.7% 7.0% 81.5% 42.6% 10.1% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Clemson 95.4% 1.7% 94.7% 51.3% 12.6% 3.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Miami (FL) 77.8% 12.1% 71.7% 31.7% 6.8% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 37.7% 17.4% 27.7% 8.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 1.9% 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 1.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 9.5% 6.8% 5.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 14.6% 8.4% 9.2% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%