Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Duke 100.0%   1   9 - 0 0 - 0 27 - 4 15 - 3 +21.9      +11.2 7 +10.7 4 67.5 234 +24.6 5 0.0 1
14 Louisville 96.9%   4   7 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 8 13 - 5 +17.9      +11.3 6 +6.6 28 74.2 71 +17.1 22 0.0 1
21 North Carolina 91.4%   6   7 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 8 11 - 7 +15.1      +7.8 35 +7.3 19 74.0 77 +20.9 11 0.0 1
26 Virginia 84.8%   7   7 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 6 +14.4      +10.0 15 +4.4 59 64.0 318 +15.6 28 0.0 1
33 Clemson 75.7%   9   7 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +13.3      +7.6 37 +5.7 39 64.1 317 +13.9 35 0.0 1
34 Miami (FL) 65.6%   10   7 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 9 11 - 7 +13.1      +5.6 61 +7.5 15 72.8 102 +14.4 32 0.0 1
35 North Carolina St. 64.1%   9   5 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 8 +13.0      +9.9 16 +3.1 84 75.0 53 +9.3 68 0.0 1
40 SMU 69.5%   10   8 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 10 10 - 8 +11.9      +7.0 44 +5.0 49 74.2 72 +18.5 16 0.0 1
53 Wake Forest 30.1%   6 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 9 +10.0      +4.4 74 +5.6 42 75.0 54 +7.6 79 0.0 1
56 Notre Dame 37.1%   7 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 9 +9.5      +5.0 65 +4.5 57 64.0 319 +13.9 36 0.0 1
61 Syracuse 25.8%   5 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 13 8 - 10 +9.1      +3.4 89 +5.8 37 69.7 181 +12.1 49 0.0 1
69 California 21.9%   7 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 11 8 - 10 +8.0      +5.0 63 +3.0 88 70.3 165 +13.7 38 0.0 1
70 Virginia Tech 18.9%   7 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 13 7 - 11 +7.8      +4.8 70 +3.0 87 71.7 132 +12.1 50 0.0 1
84 Stanford 13.6%   7 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 14 7 - 11 +6.6      +3.2 96 +3.5 72 74.1 75 +11.4 56 0.0 1
92 Pittsburgh 3.8%   5 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 18 6 - 12 +5.4      +3.2 94 +2.2 105 62.8 336 +2.7 139 0.0 1
100 Florida St. 2.5%   5 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 17 6 - 12 +5.0      +1.5 125 +3.4 74 81.8 8 +4.1 117 0.0 1
132 Boston College 0.1%   4 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 19 4 - 14 +1.9      -2.4 235 +4.4 60 66.9 256 -3.2 215 0.0 1
134 Georgia Tech 0.1%   5 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 18 4 - 14 +1.8      -2.5 237 +4.2 65 73.9 79 -1.5 194 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 2 23 Kentucky 64 21 North Carolina 67   
Tue, Dec 2 3 Duke 67 15 Florida 66   
Tue, Dec 2 61 Syracuse 62 16 Tennessee 60   
Tue, Dec 2 37 Missouri 71 56 Notre Dame 76   
Tue, Dec 2 41 Oklahoma 86 53 Wake Forest 68   
Tue, Dec 2 92 Pittsburgh 73 38 Texas A&M 81   
Tue, Dec 2 89 South Carolina 83 70 Virginia Tech 86   
Tue, Dec 2 69 California 79 117 Utah 72   
Tue, Dec 2 34 Miami (FL) 75 58 Mississippi 66   
Tue, Dec 2 100 Florida St. 73 19 Georgia 107   
Wed, Dec 3 20 Auburn 83 35 North Carolina St. 73   
Wed, Dec 3 50 Texas 69 26 Virginia 88   
Wed, Dec 3 11 Alabama 90 33 Clemson 84   
Wed, Dec 3 40 SMU 69 12 Vanderbilt 88   
Wed, Dec 3 22 Arkansas 89 14 Louisville 80   
Wed, Dec 3 132 Boston College 69 29 LSU 78   
Wed, Dec 3 134 Georgia Tech 73 81 Mississippi St. 85   
Fri, Dec 5 56 Notre Dame 87 48 TCU 85   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 6 3 Duke 69 10 Michigan St. 70 50%   
Sat, Dec 6 24 Indiana 77 14 Louisville 80 63%   
Sat, Dec 6 53 Wake Forest 71 65 West Virginia 69 55%   
Sat, Dec 6 66 George Mason 72 70 Virginia Tech 74 59%   
Sat, Dec 6 67 Dayton 70 26 Virginia 76 72%   
Sat, Dec 6 69 California 78 139 Pacific 68 81%   
Sat, Dec 6 100 Florida St. 64 7 Houston 79 91%   
Sat, Dec 6 134 Georgia Tech 75 205 Monmouth 68 76%   
Sat, Dec 6 35 North Carolina St. 91 210 UNC Asheville 72 95%   
Sat, Dec 6 34 Miami (FL) 85 219 Southern Miss 65 96%   
Sat, Dec 6 132 Boston College 72 346 New Haven 56 93%   
Sun, Dec 7 40 SMU 80 38 Texas A&M 81 50%   
Sun, Dec 7 85 Georgetown 72 21 North Carolina 84 86%   
Sun, Dec 7 136 Hofstra 64 92 Pittsburgh 71 74%   
Sun, Dec 7 84 Stanford 87 131 UNLV 79 77%   
Tue, Dec 9 8 BYU 76 33 Clemson 70 72%   
Tue, Dec 9 341 Maryland Eastern Shore 51 26 Virginia 79 99%   
Wed, Dec 10 98 Liberty 73 35 North Carolina St. 84 85%   
Wed, Dec 10 132 Boston College 72 175 Massachusetts 71 51%   
Wed, Dec 10 187 Idaho 63 56 Notre Dame 78 91%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.9 61.0 18.2 9.2 4.7 2.9 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisville 3.8 20.7 20.6 15.3 11.8 8.8 6.5 5.0 3.3 2.6 2.1 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 5.7 8.8 11.8 12.1 11.8 10.4 9.4 8.1 6.8 5.4 4.5 3.5 2.6 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
Virginia 5.2 9.3 14.6 13.9 12.2 10.6 9.3 7.3 6.0 4.9 3.4 2.8 2.2 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1
Clemson 5.6 7.3 12.5 12.9 12.8 11.0 9.0 8.1 6.7 5.4 4.4 3.3 2.4 1.7 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1
Miami (FL) 5.6 7.6 12.4 13.2 12.1 10.7 9.2 8.3 6.9 5.6 4.4 3.3 2.3 1.6 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1
North Carolina St. 6.8 5.2 8.9 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.3 8.6 8.1 6.9 6.4 4.9 4.0 3.3 2.4 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2
SMU 7.8 2.5 5.8 7.0 7.9 8.8 8.8 9.0 8.9 8.1 7.5 6.7 5.7 4.5 3.3 2.4 1.7 0.9 0.5
Wake Forest 9.0 1.3 3.3 5.1 5.7 6.7 7.5 8.2 8.4 8.8 8.3 7.8 7.3 6.2 5.1 4.2 2.8 2.1 1.0
Notre Dame 9.1 1.3 2.9 4.3 5.7 6.6 7.4 8.2 9.1 9.1 8.7 8.4 7.1 6.2 5.3 4.3 3.0 1.6 0.8
Syracuse 9.8 0.8 2.1 3.3 4.6 5.6 6.6 7.5 8.2 8.4 8.7 8.8 8.5 7.0 6.8 5.2 3.8 2.8 1.3
California 10.3 0.7 2.0 2.9 3.8 5.2 5.5 6.6 7.3 8.3 8.2 8.9 8.3 8.1 7.2 6.0 5.2 3.4 2.3
Virginia Tech 11.4 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.2 3.0 3.6 5.0 6.1 7.2 8.3 9.5 9.9 10.6 9.9 8.6 6.6 4.6 2.3
Stanford 12.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.1 2.4 3.2 4.0 5.4 6.3 7.3 8.1 8.9 9.5 10.2 9.8 8.9 7.3 4.7
Pittsburgh 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.8 3.6 4.4 5.3 7.3 7.8 9.2 10.8 11.5 11.8 11.1 9.0
Florida St. 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.6 3.6 4.8 5.4 6.7 7.6 9.6 11.0 11.7 11.9 11.6 8.9
Boston College 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.8 3.6 4.7 6.8 8.9 11.8 15.1 19.3 21.9
Georgia Tech 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.6 2.6 3.6 4.8 6.9 9.4 12.1 15.6 19.2 21.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 3.1 6.2 10.1 15.7 20.3 20.6 15.3 6.4
Louisville 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.7 4.9 7.6 11.5 14.9 17.1 16.0 12.5 6.9 3.4 0.7
North Carolina 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.2 4.1 6.9 9.9 12.8 15.1 15.3 12.9 9.8 5.9 2.8 0.8 0.2
Virginia 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 3.2 5.5 8.7 11.8 15.1 15.4 14.3 11.7 6.9 3.7 1.1 0.2
Clemson 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.8 6.6 9.7 13.0 14.9 16.1 13.2 10.1 5.9 2.7 0.8 0.2
Miami (FL) 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.5 6.7 9.9 13.1 15.1 15.4 13.3 9.7 6.2 3.0 0.9 0.2
North Carolina St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.1 6.3 9.6 12.2 14.2 14.4 12.9 10.0 6.7 3.9 1.6 0.4 0.1
SMU 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.4 5.4 9.2 11.9 13.8 14.9 13.7 10.7 7.4 4.1 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
Wake Forest 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.1 5.4 8.3 11.7 14.1 14.1 13.4 11.0 7.9 5.0 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Notre Dame 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.1 5.4 8.7 11.9 14.2 14.8 14.0 10.9 7.5 4.5 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Syracuse 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.2 7.2 10.3 13.0 14.7 14.4 12.7 9.3 6.0 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
California 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.9 5.4 8.3 11.1 13.7 14.3 13.2 11.0 8.1 5.5 3.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Virginia Tech 7 - 11 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.8 7.2 11.1 15.1 16.4 15.0 11.7 8.3 4.7 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stanford 7 - 11 0.2 1.0 3.0 6.2 9.6 12.7 14.6 14.4 13.4 9.8 6.9 4.2 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.1
Pittsburgh 6 - 12 0.4 2.2 6.0 9.5 12.4 15.1 14.9 13.2 10.3 7.1 4.5 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 6 - 12 0.4 2.2 5.8 9.8 12.7 15.5 15.2 13.0 10.2 7.2 4.3 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Boston College 4 - 14 2.0 6.5 12.4 16.4 17.6 15.5 12.3 7.8 4.9 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Georgia Tech 4 - 14 1.7 6.2 11.8 17.4 17.7 16.1 12.3 8.0 4.7 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 61.0% 45.6 12.2 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisville 20.7% 11.7 6.5 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 8.8% 4.4 3.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia 9.3% 4.5 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Clemson 7.3% 3.4 2.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 7.6% 3.5 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Carolina St. 5.2% 2.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
SMU 2.5% 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 1.3% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Notre Dame 1.3% 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
California 0.7% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 0.3% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Stanford 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Boston College 0.0% 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 1   41.8 31.8 14.8 6.4 3.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
Louisville 96.9% 18.6% 78.3% 4   8.0 13.1 16.8 16.7 13.8 10.1 7.0 4.7 3.2 2.0 1.4 0.0 3.2 96.1%
North Carolina 91.4% 8.1% 83.3% 6   2.1 4.9 9.8 12.8 13.9 12.9 11.1 8.8 7.3 4.8 2.9 0.1 8.6 90.6%
Virginia 84.8% 7.4% 77.4% 7   1.0 2.1 4.7 8.2 10.7 11.9 12.0 11.1 9.9 8.4 4.6 0.1 0.0 15.2 83.6%
Clemson 75.7% 5.4% 70.3% 9   0.4 0.8 2.5 4.8 7.4 9.5 11.2 11.4 11.3 10.5 5.7 0.2 24.3 74.3%
Miami (FL) 65.6% 5.2% 60.4% 10   0.2 0.6 1.7 3.4 5.0 7.2 9.0 9.9 10.4 11.1 7.1 0.2 34.4 63.7%
North Carolina St. 64.1% 4.6% 59.6% 9   0.2 0.8 1.7 3.8 5.4 7.4 9.7 10.8 9.6 8.8 5.7 0.2 0.0 35.9 62.4%
SMU 69.5% 2.9% 66.6% 10   0.1 0.6 2.1 3.6 6.2 8.7 9.8 10.4 11.0 10.2 6.5 0.3 30.5 68.6%
Wake Forest 30.1% 1.4% 28.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.8 4.1 6.1 7.5 6.4 0.2 69.9 29.1%
Notre Dame 37.1% 1.0% 36.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.3 5.2 7.3 9.5 7.6 0.3 62.9 36.4%
Syracuse 25.8% 1.0% 24.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.3 3.4 5.1 6.6 5.9 0.3 74.2 25.0%
California 21.9% 0.5% 21.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.6 4.3 5.9 5.5 0.2 78.1 21.5%
Virginia Tech 18.9% 0.5% 18.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.5 3.4 5.2 4.9 0.2 81.1 18.5%
Stanford 13.6% 0.3% 13.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 3.0 3.8 3.4 0.1 86.5 13.3%
Pittsburgh 3.8% 0.2% 3.6% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.1 96.2 3.6%
Florida St. 2.5% 0.1% 2.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.0 97.5 2.4%
Boston College 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 99.9% 97.1% 75.1% 49.9% 29.6% 16.4% 8.7%
Louisville 96.9% 1.6% 96.3% 81.1% 48.5% 23.4% 11.1% 5.1% 2.1%
North Carolina 91.4% 3.5% 89.6% 63.7% 28.9% 11.3% 4.4% 1.7% 0.6%
Virginia 84.8% 5.6% 82.2% 53.5% 22.1% 8.3% 3.3% 1.1% 0.4%
Clemson 75.7% 7.0% 72.2% 43.4% 14.6% 5.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2%
Miami (FL) 65.6% 8.2% 61.5% 36.5% 12.1% 4.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1%
North Carolina St. 64.1% 6.6% 60.8% 36.2% 12.2% 4.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
SMU 69.5% 7.9% 65.1% 36.1% 10.9% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Wake Forest 30.1% 7.4% 26.2% 12.3% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Notre Dame 37.1% 8.9% 32.2% 14.2% 2.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Syracuse 25.8% 7.0% 22.1% 10.0% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
California 21.9% 6.4% 18.3% 7.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 18.9% 5.7% 15.7% 6.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 13.6% 4.0% 11.1% 4.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 3.8% 1.3% 3.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 2.5% 0.9% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.0 0.1 0.9 7.5 23.4 35.2 24.0 7.6 1.2 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 7.6 0.2 2.5 13.3 30.5 33.8 15.7 3.5 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.0 0.1 1.3 8.1 22.9 32.6 24.3 8.9 1.5 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 97.6% 2.4 2.4 17.5 37.2 29.8 11.0 2.0 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 77.9% 1.1 22.1 47.6 25.0 4.9 0.4 0.0
Final Four 48.6% 0.6 51.4 41.8 6.5 0.2 0.0
Final Game 25.5% 0.3 74.5 24.4 1.1
Champion 12.5% 0.1 87.5 12.5