Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
1 Duke 100.0%   1   28 - 2 16 - 1 +27.2      +13.2 4 +13.9 1 65.2 268 +29.2 1 +27.5 1
14 Louisville 99.5%   6   21 - 9 10 - 7 +18.6      +10.7 17 +7.9 23 74.4 38 +15.8 27 +13.9 7
21 Virginia 100.0%   4   26 - 4 14 - 3 +17.4      +8.3 37 +9.1 17 64.7 279 +20.9 10 +21.2 2
26 North Carolina 99.8%   6   24 - 6 12 - 5 +15.3      +9.0 27 +6.3 36 69.7 141 +18.6 19 +16.8 3
34 North Carolina St. 89.7%   9   19 - 11 10 - 7 +14.1      +9.5 23 +4.6 54 71.7 98 +12.9 43 +14.0 5
35 Miami (FL) 92.1%   8   23 - 6 12 - 4 +13.9      +7.7 42 +6.2 38 70.0 135 +15.5 30 +15.7 4
39 SMU 70.6%   10   19 - 10 8 - 8 +13.5      +10.8 16 +2.7 101 71.8 94 +12.5 44 +11.5 8
40 Clemson 90.3%   9   21 - 9 11 - 6 +13.5      +4.4 80 +9.1 16 62.3 335 +14.3 39 +13.9 6
56 Virginia Tech 18.0%   19 - 11 8 - 9 +10.0      +5.4 65 +4.5 57 67.9 195 +11.3 53 +10.4 11
66 Stanford 8.0%   18 - 11 7 - 9 +8.9      +4.6 76 +4.3 64 68.0 191 +9.8 62 +8.9 12
70 Wake Forest 0.2%   15 - 15 6 - 11 +8.7      +5.9 58 +2.7 99 70.1 132 +8.1 73 +7.5 13
73 California 11.6%   19 - 9 8 - 8 +8.0      +3.4 93 +4.6 53 69.0 166 +11.4 52 +10.7 10
76 Syracuse 0.0%   15 - 15 6 - 11 +7.7      +4.8 72 +2.8 97 69.1 161 +7.5 81 +7.1 14
77 Florida St. 0.7%   15 - 14 8 - 8 +7.6      +4.7 73 +2.9 91 75.5 26 +8.4 69 +11.3 9
85 Notre Dame 0.0%   13 - 16 4 - 12 +6.7      +4.5 78 +2.2 117 65.0 273 +6.3 89 +4.1 16
95 Pittsburgh 0.0%   11 - 18 4 - 12 +5.8      +3.0 100 +2.8 95 62.0 340 +3.6 113 +4.4 15
137 Boston College 0.0%   10 - 20 3 - 14 +1.3      -2.9 249 +4.2 67 65.1 271 -1.3 179 +1.4 17
148 Georgia Tech 0.0%   11 - 18 2 - 14 +0.9      -0.7 181 +1.6 127 75.4 27 -0.9 174 -1.7 18


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 28 40 Clemson 80 14 Louisville 75   
Sat, Feb 28 26 North Carolina 89 56 Virginia Tech 82   
Sat, Feb 28 34 North Carolina St. 90 85 Notre Dame 96   
Sat, Feb 28 76 Syracuse 83 70 Wake Forest 88   
Sat, Feb 28 73 California 56 95 Pittsburgh 72   
Sat, Feb 28 1 Duke 77 21 Virginia 51   
Sat, Feb 28 39 SMU 75 66 Stanford 95   
Sat, Feb 28 77 Florida St. 80 148 Georgia Tech 71   
Sat, Feb 28 137 Boston College 54 35 Miami (FL) 76   
Mon, Mar 2 1 Duke 93 34 North Carolina St. 64   
Tue, Mar 3 40 Clemson 63 26 North Carolina 67   
Tue, Mar 3 21 Virginia 75 70 Wake Forest 70   
Tue, Mar 3 14 Louisville 77 76 Syracuse 62   
Tue, Mar 3 137 Boston College 63 56 Virginia Tech 72   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Mar 4 35 Miami (FL) 81 39 SMU 83 60%   
Wed, Mar 4 85 Notre Dame 74 66 Stanford 73 53%   
Wed, Mar 4 77 Florida St. 74 95 Pittsburgh 75 55%   
Wed, Mar 4 73 California 78 148 Georgia Tech 74 65%   
Sat, Mar 7 14 Louisville 81 35 Miami (FL) 80 56%   
Sat, Mar 7 1 Duke 81 26 North Carolina 67 91%   
Sat, Mar 7 73 California 75 70 Wake Forest 78 64%   
Sat, Mar 7 34 North Carolina St. 82 66 Stanford 74 78%   
Sat, Mar 7 21 Virginia 77 56 Virginia Tech 67 84%   
Sat, Mar 7 95 Pittsburgh 69 76 Syracuse 74 68%   
Sat, Mar 7 77 Florida St. 84 39 SMU 86 61%   
Sat, Mar 7 137 Boston College 67 85 Notre Dame 69 59%   
Sat, Mar 7 40 Clemson 78 148 Georgia Tech 63 92%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.0 100.0
Virginia 2.0 100.0
Miami (FL) 3.0 2.9 94.3 2.8
North Carolina 3.6 37.3 62.7
Clemson 3.8 28.6 59.4 12.1
North Carolina St. 6.1 5.5 82.2 12.3
Louisville 6.3 3.9 61.3 34.8
SMU 8.3 3.4 17.2 43.5 19.5 12.9 3.4 0.2
California 8.5 2.3 11.6 34.6 37.4 11.1 2.9 0.2
Florida St. 8.8 1.7 8.5 31.9 26.2 25.0 6.2 0.4
Virginia Tech 10.1 5.6 17.0 40.6 33.4 3.4
Stanford 10.9 3.7 10.4 22.5 19.3 44.2
Syracuse 12.9 27.8 51.5 20.7
Wake Forest 13.0 26.4 49.0 24.6
Notre Dame 15.0 3.8 14.2 59.5 22.5
Pittsburgh 15.2 6.8 11.8 40.7 40.7
Boston College 16.7 6.4 20.1 71.9 1.6
Georgia Tech 17.7 0.2 1.0 23.1 75.7

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 17 - 1 29 - 2 8.2 91.8
Virginia 15 - 3 27 - 4 16.2 83.8
Miami (FL) 13 - 5 24 - 7 33.4 47.9 18.8
North Carolina 12 - 6 24 - 7 91.8 8.2
Clemson 12 - 6 22 - 9 7.1 92.9
North Carolina St. 11 - 7 20 - 11 22.0 78.0
Louisville 11 - 7 22 - 9 44.5 55.5
SMU 9 - 9 20 - 11 16.9 46.5 36.6
California 9 - 9 20 - 10 22.9 52.6 24.5
Florida St. 9 - 9 16 - 15 33.4 48.4 18.2
Virginia Tech 8 - 10 19 - 12 83.8 16.2
Stanford 8 - 10 19 - 12 41.3 47.8 10.8
Syracuse 7 - 11 16 - 15 32.6 67.4
Wake Forest 7 - 11 16 - 15 36.5 63.5
Notre Dame 5 - 13 14 - 17 19.9 48.7 31.4
Pittsburgh 5 - 13 12 - 19 31.2 50.2 18.6
Boston College 3 - 15 10 - 21 59.0 41.0
Georgia Tech 2 - 16 11 - 20 60.6 36.8 2.6

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 100.0% 100.0
Virginia
Miami (FL)
North Carolina
Clemson
North Carolina St.
Louisville
SMU
California
Florida St.
Virginia Tech
Stanford
Syracuse
Wake Forest
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Boston College
Georgia Tech


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 71.4% 28.6% 1   96.7 3.3 0.0 100.0%
Louisville 99.5% 8.3% 91.2% 6   0.5 3.5 8.7 22.4 29.7 20.3 9.0 3.8 1.4 0.1 0.5 99.5%
Virginia 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 4   0.9 10.0 27.2 33.8 22.1 5.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
North Carolina 99.8% 4.2% 95.6% 6   0.2 2.3 7.7 28.7 40.7 17.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 0.2 99.8%
North Carolina St. 89.7% 1.7% 88.0% 9   0.0 0.1 1.2 6.1 14.0 22.9 24.8 17.0 3.8 0.0 10.3 89.6%
Miami (FL) 92.1% 2.7% 89.4% 8   0.0 0.1 0.5 3.5 12.0 18.3 19.8 18.0 14.0 5.8 0.0 7.9 91.8%
SMU 70.6% 0.9% 69.7% 10   0.0 0.2 0.8 2.5 8.1 15.2 26.5 17.0 0.2 29.4 70.4%
Clemson 90.3% 1.5% 88.8% 9   0.0 0.0 0.5 4.4 12.9 24.3 26.6 17.9 3.6 0.0 9.7 90.2%
Virginia Tech 18.0% 0.1% 17.9% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.7 13.3 1.4 82.0 17.9%
Stanford 8.0% 0.1% 7.9% 0.1 0.3 1.4 5.8 0.4 92.0 7.9%
Wake Forest 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.1%
California 11.6% 0.1% 11.5% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 8.7 0.7 88.4 11.5%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Florida St. 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 99.3 0.6%
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 7.8 0.0 0.1 4.3 28.9 49.6 15.6 1.4 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.5 0.0 0.4 8.3 41.4 43.2 6.5 0.3 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 5.1 0.0 0.7 6.5 21.8 35.2 26.4 8.4 0.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 98.8% 2.4 1.2 16.8 40.2 30.5 9.7 1.6 0.1
Elite Eight 85.6% 1.2 14.5 54.5 26.5 4.3 0.3 0.0
Final Four 63.1% 0.7 36.9 56.1 6.8 0.2
Final Game 40.0% 0.4 60.0 39.1 0.9
Champion 24.0% 0.2 76.0 24.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.9% 89.9% 72.4% 54.8% 36.5% 22.7%
Louisville 99.5% 0.1% 99.5% 78.6% 36.7% 14.7% 5.4% 1.9% 0.6%
Virginia 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 91.5% 49.6% 16.4% 5.7% 1.7% 0.5%
North Carolina 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 72.2% 27.0% 7.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1%
North Carolina St. 89.7% 3.8% 88.0% 44.1% 8.4% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 92.1% 5.8% 89.5% 47.0% 10.4% 3.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
SMU 70.6% 17.7% 62.3% 28.2% 5.6% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Clemson 90.3% 3.6% 88.7% 41.8% 7.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 18.0% 14.6% 9.9% 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 8.0% 6.1% 4.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 11.6% 9.4% 5.7% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%