Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Duke 100.0%   1   17 - 1 6 - 0 +22.3      +11.2 9 +11.1 6 68.7 186 +28.8 3 +28.8 1
13 Louisville 97.5%   5   13 - 5 3 - 3 +18.3      +11.3 7 +7.0 28 73.6 66 +14.6 35 +10.8 9
16 Virginia 100.0%   4   16 - 2 5 - 1 +17.9      +9.6 19 +8.3 18 64.3 300 +21.2 12 +23.9 2
26 North Carolina St. 86.7%   9   13 - 6 4 - 2 +15.2      +8.7 28 +6.5 33 71.4 108 +11.5 50 +12.7 6
29 SMU 89.1%   8   14 - 5 3 - 3 +14.3      +9.9 17 +4.5 62 71.7 101 +15.0 32 +14.2 4
31 North Carolina 85.6%   8   15 - 4 3 - 3 +14.2      +9.1 22 +5.1 48 71.1 117 +15.3 27 +8.1 11
32 Clemson 95.9%   7   16 - 4 6 - 1 +14.1      +5.2 68 +8.9 15 62.9 331 +16.6 23 +19.0 3
40 Miami (FL) 63.8%   10   15 - 4 4 - 2 +12.3      +5.8 58 +6.5 34 71.4 109 +13.3 39 +11.8 7
58 Virginia Tech 39.6%   15 - 5 4 - 3 +9.8      +5.3 65 +4.6 60 70.0 156 +12.3 44 +11.6 8
63 Wake Forest 8.2%   11 - 8 2 - 4 +8.6      +3.7 91 +5.0 54 72.6 84 +8.5 71 +7.3 12
67 Syracuse 5.3%   12 - 7 3 - 3 +8.2      +3.9 84 +4.3 68 69.7 162 +7.0 79 +6.4 13
75 California 11.5%   13 - 5 2 - 4 +7.7      +3.7 89 +4.0 74 68.5 194 +11.6 49 +9.6 10
77 Stanford 28.1%   14 - 5 3 - 3 +7.6      +3.5 93 +4.1 71 68.9 181 +12.6 43 +14.1 5
84 Notre Dame 2.6%   10 - 9 1 - 5 +7.1      +2.9 101 +4.2 69 64.0 311 +7.0 80 +3.3 17
91 Pittsburgh 0.2%   8 - 11 1 - 5 +5.8      +4.1 80 +1.7 116 63.3 326 +1.6 137 +0.1 18
111 Florida St. 0.0%   8 - 11 1 - 5 +3.6      +2.6 109 +1.1 131 78.3 17 +1.2 144 +3.9 16
113 Georgia Tech 0.0%   11 - 8 2 - 4 +3.5      0.0 165 +3.5 81 75.2 40 +2.0 130 +4.5 15
134 Boston College 0.0%   9 - 10 2 - 4 +1.6      -3.0 257 +4.6 59 66.1 264 -0.3 166 +5.8 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Jan 20 32 Clemson 76 26 North Carolina St. 80   
Tue, Jan 20 111 Florida St. 65 40 Miami (FL) 63   
Tue, Jan 20 29 SMU 91 63 Wake Forest 79   
Wed, Jan 21 67 Syracuse 74 58 Virginia Tech 76   
Wed, Jan 21 134 Boston College 65 91 Pittsburgh 62   
Wed, Jan 21 31 North Carolina 91 84 Notre Dame 69   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 24 31 North Carolina 72 16 Virginia 78 74%   
Sat, Jan 24 75 California 72 77 Stanford 75 61%   
Sat, Jan 24 40 Miami (FL) 76 67 Syracuse 75 54%   
Sat, Jan 24 13 Louisville 85 58 Virginia Tech 74 86%   
Sat, Jan 24 3 Duke 84 63 Wake Forest 67 93%   
Sat, Jan 24 26 North Carolina St. 78 91 Pittsburgh 71 73%   
Sat, Jan 24 134 Boston College 62 84 Notre Dame 70 79%   
Sat, Jan 24 111 Florida St. 77 29 SMU 91 89%   
Sat, Jan 24 32 Clemson 74 113 Georgia Tech 66 77%   
Mon, Jan 26 3 Duke 82 13 Louisville 75 75%   
Tue, Jan 27 26 North Carolina St. 82 67 Syracuse 72 83%   
Tue, Jan 27 91 Pittsburgh 74 63 Wake Forest 73 51%   
Tue, Jan 27 84 Notre Dame 65 16 Virginia 73 77%   
Tue, Jan 27 113 Georgia Tech 72 58 Virginia Tech 81 81%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.3 81.3 13.5 3.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisville 5.2 1.1 6.9 16.6 19.5 17.0 13.3 10.1 6.8 3.9 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia 2.2 27.3 48.0 14.7 5.8 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Carolina St. 5.3 1.6 7.5 14.0 18.1 17.2 14.2 10.3 7.0 4.3 2.8 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
SMU 5.6 0.5 4.9 13.2 17.4 17.2 15.1 12.1 7.6 4.9 3.2 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 7.8 0.2 1.3 3.6 6.4 9.6 12.1 14.2 14.4 12.2 9.0 6.9 4.6 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Clemson 3.3 8.1 24.7 32.4 16.9 8.9 4.5 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 5.8 0.7 5.6 11.7 16.0 16.5 15.1 12.1 8.5 5.8 3.8 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.4 7.7 11.1 14.4 15.9 15.6 11.6 7.7 4.4 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Wake Forest 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 2.9 5.0 7.4 9.6 11.3 12.7 12.1 11.6 9.6 6.9 4.6 2.6 1.1
Syracuse 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.8 7.2 9.2 11.4 12.9 13.6 12.5 10.4 6.4 3.8 1.7 0.5
California 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 3.4 5.5 8.1 9.8 11.2 12.1 11.0 10.5 8.4 6.7 4.8 3.3 1.9 0.8
Stanford 9.4 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.2 5.1 7.8 10.2 12.2 12.8 12.0 10.7 8.6 6.3 4.5 2.4 1.5 0.7 0.2
Notre Dame 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 3.2 5.0 7.2 9.9 12.1 13.9 13.9 11.3 9.1 6.9 4.5
Pittsburgh 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.6 4.0 5.7 8.3 11.8 14.2 16.5 17.5 16.3
Florida St. 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 2.5 3.8 5.8 8.0 11.2 14.1 15.9 16.5 19.4
Georgia Tech 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.6 3.6 5.3 7.2 10.3 13.5 15.5 16.0 14.1 9.6
Boston College 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.8 5.3 8.3 11.4 14.8 17.6 19.0 15.1

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 16 - 2 27 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 3.6 9.6 19.0 27.7 26.0 12.9
Louisville 11 - 7 22 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.8 9.0 16.0 22.4 23.1 15.7 7.1 1.3
Virginia 14 - 4 26 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 7.4 14.8 24.3 27.1 18.2 4.5
North Carolina St. 11 - 7 20 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.5 10.1 17.0 21.3 21.0 14.6 7.1 2.1 0.3
SMU 11 - 7 22 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 5.5 11.2 18.5 22.6 20.0 13.1 5.4 1.1
North Carolina 9 - 9 21 - 10 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.9 9.4 15.9 21.4 20.8 15.4 8.2 3.1 0.7 0.1
Clemson 13 - 5 23 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.7 11.1 18.9 24.5 22.0 12.6 4.2 0.5
Miami (FL) 11 - 7 22 - 9 0.1 0.6 2.1 6.3 12.4 19.0 22.2 18.8 12.0 5.0 1.4 0.2
Virginia Tech 9 - 9 20 - 11 0.1 1.2 5.9 15.7 25.2 25.1 16.4 7.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Wake Forest 7 - 11 16 - 15 0.2 1.3 5.2 11.1 17.8 21.1 19.8 13.3 7.1 2.5 0.5 0.1
Syracuse 7 - 11 16 - 15 0.6 3.7 10.9 18.8 23.6 19.9 13.4 6.2 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
California 8 - 10 19 - 11 0.1 0.8 3.0 7.8 13.3 18.8 19.5 16.9 11.6 5.6 2.1 0.5 0.1
Stanford 8 - 10 19 - 12 0.1 1.1 4.0 9.7 15.9 20.5 19.8 15.1 8.8 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0
Notre Dame 6 - 12 15 - 16 0.1 1.0 4.4 11.3 18.9 22.6 20.0 12.9 6.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Pittsburgh 5 - 13 12 - 19 1.5 6.9 15.3 22.3 22.3 16.7 9.0 4.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 5 - 13 12 - 19 1.5 7.6 16.4 22.4 21.5 15.9 9.1 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 5 - 13 14 - 17 3.3 11.9 20.5 23.6 20.0 12.0 6.0 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
Boston College 5 - 13 12 - 19 6.0 16.5 24.2 23.6 16.4 8.6 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 81.3% 65.2 13.6 2.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Louisville 1.1% 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia 27.3% 13.4 11.6 2.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 1.6% 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
SMU 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
North Carolina 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Clemson 8.1% 2.7 3.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Miami (FL) 0.7% 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0
Wake Forest 0.0% 0.0
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0
California 0.0% 0.0
Stanford 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Florida St.
Georgia Tech
Boston College


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 43.1% 56.9% 1   56.4 32.9 8.7 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Louisville 97.5% 14.4% 83.1% 5   1.2 3.0 7.6 14.1 19.0 19.7 15.0 9.2 4.8 2.9 1.1 0.0 2.5 97.1%
Virginia 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 4   3.6 8.1 17.3 24.5 21.9 15.0 6.5 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.9%
North Carolina St. 86.7% 6.2% 80.5% 9   0.1 0.1 0.7 1.8 5.0 9.8 15.9 18.5 16.6 12.4 5.9 0.1 13.3 85.9%
SMU 89.1% 4.9% 84.2% 8   0.1 0.1 0.8 2.2 6.0 11.4 17.4 19.2 16.5 11.2 4.3 0.0 10.9 88.5%
North Carolina 85.6% 3.8% 81.9% 8   0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 6.1 11.6 15.5 17.6 14.6 11.1 6.2 0.1 14.4 85.1%
Clemson 95.9% 6.1% 89.7% 7   0.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 9.5 18.6 23.0 19.7 12.4 6.3 1.6 4.1 95.6%
Miami (FL) 63.8% 2.7% 61.1% 10   0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.8 5.9 10.6 14.1 16.7 12.3 0.1 36.2 62.8%
Virginia Tech 39.6% 0.5% 39.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.8 8.5 12.2 11.4 0.2 60.4 39.3%
Wake Forest 8.2% 0.2% 8.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.6 4.1 0.1 91.8 8.0%
Syracuse 5.3% 0.2% 5.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 2.5 0.1 94.7 5.1%
California 11.5% 0.2% 11.3% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.3 5.8 0.1 88.6 11.3%
Stanford 28.1% 0.3% 27.8% 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.0 6.0 9.8 8.2 0.1 71.9 27.9%
Notre Dame 2.6% 0.1% 2.5% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 0.0 97.4 2.5%
Pittsburgh 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.1%
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.1 0.0 0.3 3.5 20.3 41.5 27.5 6.4 0.6 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.8 0.0 0.6 7.3 30.5 40.8 18.0 2.7 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 5.2 0.0 0.8 5.2 20.2 34.3 27.9 9.9 1.5 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 97.8% 2.3 2.2 17.7 38.0 29.8 10.4 1.7 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 77.5% 1.1 22.5 47.2 25.3 4.6 0.4 0.0
Final Four 47.9% 0.5 52.1 41.2 6.5 0.3 0.0
Final Game 25.6% 0.3 74.5 24.6 0.9
Champion 12.9% 0.1 87.1 12.9

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.0% 76.8% 50.1% 29.9% 16.7% 9.2%
Louisville 97.5% 1.2% 97.0% 78.3% 39.8% 18.8% 8.7% 3.9% 1.6%
Virginia 100.0% 0.0% 99.9% 86.8% 46.9% 19.9% 8.6% 3.6% 1.5%
North Carolina St. 86.7% 6.7% 84.0% 51.1% 16.0% 6.3% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3%
SMU 89.1% 4.7% 86.9% 49.9% 14.5% 5.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
North Carolina 85.6% 7.0% 82.5% 47.7% 14.2% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Clemson 95.9% 2.0% 94.8% 56.1% 16.8% 5.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
Miami (FL) 63.8% 13.5% 57.1% 26.5% 5.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 39.6% 12.3% 32.8% 11.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 8.2% 4.5% 5.7% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 5.3% 2.8% 3.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 11.5% 6.1% 7.8% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 28.1% 9.1% 22.3% 6.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 2.6% 1.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%