Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 Duke 97.7%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 25 - 6 15 - 3 +21.7      +12.3 3 +9.5 3 64.8 288 0.0 121 0.0 1
8 Louisville 92.0%   3   1 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 8 13 - 5 +18.7      +10.8 10 +7.9 16 74.4 48 +0.6 114 0.0 1
22 North Carolina St. 72.3%   8   1 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 11 - 7 +14.7      +8.4 24 +6.3 31 65.0 282 -0.3 273 0.0 1
23 North Carolina 70.5%   8   1 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +14.7      +8.1 25 +6.5 28 75.3 34 -4.2 313 0.0 1
41 Clemson 51.2%   11   1 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 11 - 7 +12.3      +5.3 50 +7.0 21 62.2 335 -3.5 308 0.0 1
43 Virginia 54.7%   10   1 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 10 - 8 +12.3      +6.9 39 +5.4 43 56.4 364 +1.5 104 0.0 1
47 SMU 47.2%   1 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 9 - 9 +11.5      +7.2 32 +4.3 62 71.5 96 +4.4 75 0.0 1
54 Miami (FL) 31.0%   1 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 10 - 8 +10.1      +6.7 42 +3.4 79 68.4 188 +5.2 61 0.0 1
58 Syracuse 27.4%   1 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 9 +9.5      +6.2 46 +3.4 80 69.7 142 -0.4 276 0.0 1
60 Notre Dame 27.1%   1 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +8.9      +4.9 56 +4.0 68 65.1 281 +3.0 86 0.0 1
64 Pittsburgh 28.7%   1 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 10 +8.3      +4.8 58 +3.5 77 66.2 242 +8.5 26 0.0 1
67 Wake Forest 21.9%   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 10 +8.2      +3.8 75 +4.4 58 67.8 205 +2.9 88 0.0 1
71 Virginia Tech 16.6%   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 8 - 10 +7.7      +4.3 67 +3.3 81 71.0 110 +1.1 111 0.0 1
84 California 11.4%   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 7 - 11 +6.1      +3.6 82 +2.5 101 68.5 185 +5.1 63 0.0 1
90 Stanford 10.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 6 - 12 +5.6      +2.5 103 +3.2 83 65.7 259 0.0 121 0.0 1
93 Florida St. 9.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 7 - 11 +5.4      +2.6 99 +2.8 95 73.0 67 0.0 121 0.0 1
102 Georgia Tech 4.2%   1 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 6 - 12 +4.2      -0.4 174 +4.7 52 71.3 105 -2.4 295 0.0 1
114 Boston College 2.0%   0 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 16 5 - 13 +3.3      +1.5 115 +1.8 112 66.9 229 -8.3 333 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 2.3 51.2 19.4 10.4 6.5 4.1 2.7 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Louisville 3.7 26.0 20.2 14.5 10.5 7.6 5.6 4.4 3.2 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 5.5 11.7 13.7 12.5 11.4 9.5 7.8 7.1 5.3 4.6 3.9 3.4 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.2
North Carolina 6.0 9.7 11.9 11.5 10.7 9.3 8.3 7.2 6.6 5.4 4.8 3.7 3.1 2.6 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.3
Clemson 6.7 6.0 10.2 10.7 10.2 9.5 8.5 7.8 6.8 6.0 5.2 4.7 3.8 3.1 2.6 1.9 1.4 1.1 0.6
Virginia 7.0 5.3 8.6 10.1 9.7 9.3 8.5 7.9 7.5 6.4 5.4 4.9 4.2 3.5 2.8 2.4 1.8 1.3 0.6
SMU 8.1 3.5 6.3 7.1 7.9 7.6 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.4 6.5 6.0 5.2 5.0 4.2 3.8 2.8 2.0 1.1
Miami (FL) 8.0 3.4 6.6 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.1 8.1 7.7 7.5 6.4 5.7 5.2 4.5 4.0 3.3 2.6 2.0 1.2
Syracuse 9.4 1.8 3.7 4.9 5.9 6.3 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.8 7.5 7.1 6.9 6.2 5.8 5.1 4.2 3.7 2.2
Notre Dame 9.4 1.9 3.4 4.7 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.3 7.2 7.5 7.2 7.5 6.7 6.2 5.5 5.0 4.6 3.5 2.5
Pittsburgh 10.4 1.3 2.5 3.6 4.5 4.9 5.5 6.0 6.6 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.9 6.3 5.2 4.1
Wake Forest 10.4 1.1 2.5 3.6 4.3 4.9 5.7 6.3 6.7 6.8 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.4 7.4 6.7 5.9 5.2 3.9
Virginia Tech 10.9 0.8 1.8 2.5 3.4 4.3 5.0 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.3 7.9 8.0 7.8 7.9 7.6 6.7 5.6 3.9
California 11.6 0.7 1.6 2.3 2.9 3.8 4.5 5.1 5.4 6.3 6.7 7.0 7.0 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.0 7.4
Stanford 12.3 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.5 3.1 3.6 4.4 4.7 5.5 5.9 6.4 6.7 7.9 8.2 8.9 9.3 9.6 10.2
Florida St. 12.3 0.5 1.2 1.7 2.5 2.8 3.4 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.9 6.5 7.3 7.9 8.3 9.1 9.6 9.8 9.3
Georgia Tech 13.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.6 3.3 3.8 4.2 5.6 6.2 6.9 8.2 9.4 10.0 10.9 12.0 11.8
Boston College 13.7 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.7 3.0 3.9 4.4 5.6 6.6 7.8 8.8 10.4 11.9 13.5 15.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.6 7.5 10.4 13.8 17.7 18.3 14.6 7.3
Louisville 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.2 6.8 9.4 12.3 13.9 15.2 13.8 10.8 6.2 1.9
North Carolina St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.5 6.3 8.5 10.6 12.0 13.6 12.5 10.5 7.8 5.4 2.2 0.6
North Carolina 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.9 3.3 5.2 7.5 9.5 11.7 12.5 12.9 11.8 9.5 6.7 4.1 1.5 0.4
Clemson 11 - 7 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.8 4.4 6.3 8.5 10.6 11.8 13.1 12.2 10.6 8.2 5.1 2.6 1.2 0.2
Virginia 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.1 5.0 6.9 9.2 11.0 12.6 12.7 11.7 10.0 6.9 4.6 2.2 0.8 0.2
SMU 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.8 5.1 7.1 8.9 10.9 12.4 12.2 11.1 9.6 7.5 5.2 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.1
Miami (FL) 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.6 6.7 8.9 10.8 12.0 12.5 11.8 9.6 7.8 5.1 3.3 1.5 0.5 0.1
Syracuse 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.8 4.7 7.1 9.3 11.2 12.7 12.2 11.1 9.2 7.5 5.1 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Notre Dame 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 4.7 7.0 9.4 11.3 12.3 12.3 11.0 9.6 7.5 4.9 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
Pittsburgh 8 - 10 0.2 1.0 2.5 4.4 6.9 9.3 10.7 11.9 12.4 11.0 9.3 7.7 5.6 3.4 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Wake Forest 8 - 10 0.2 1.0 2.3 4.0 6.8 9.2 11.3 12.3 12.0 11.3 9.6 7.6 5.6 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Virginia Tech 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.5 7.5 10.3 12.2 13.0 12.7 11.5 9.0 6.8 4.2 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
California 7 - 11 0.4 1.8 4.0 6.7 9.4 10.9 12.2 11.5 11.4 10.0 7.7 5.8 3.9 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1
Stanford 6 - 12 0.8 2.9 5.8 8.1 10.3 12.2 12.5 11.3 10.2 8.5 6.7 4.5 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 7 - 11 0.8 2.6 5.2 8.3 10.7 12.3 12.9 11.6 10.0 8.7 6.2 4.4 2.9 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgia Tech 6 - 12 0.9 3.4 6.9 9.8 12.4 13.9 13.5 11.6 9.3 7.0 4.9 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Boston College 5 - 13 1.6 4.7 8.3 11.9 13.4 13.9 13.1 11.0 7.9 5.8 3.8 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 51.2% 37.8 10.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
Louisville 26.0% 16.7 7.2 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
North Carolina St. 11.7% 6.4 4.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Carolina 9.7% 5.4 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.1
Clemson 6.0% 3.1 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Virginia 5.3% 2.6 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
SMU 3.5% 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Miami (FL) 3.4% 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Syracuse 1.8% 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Notre Dame 1.9% 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Pittsburgh 1.3% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wake Forest 1.1% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Virginia Tech 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
California 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Stanford 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 0.5% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Boston College 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 97.7% 39.0% 58.7% 1   31.9 21.9 13.5 9.7 7.0 4.7 3.6 2.3 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.3 96.2%
Louisville 92.0% 21.4% 70.6% 3   13.7 15.1 14.0 11.8 9.4 8.0 6.5 5.2 4.0 3.1 1.2 0.0 8.0 89.8%
North Carolina St. 72.3% 8.4% 64.0% 8   2.8 4.9 6.2 7.4 8.0 8.1 8.5 8.4 7.9 7.2 3.0 0.1 27.7 69.8%
North Carolina 70.5% 7.9% 62.6% 8   2.7 4.3 5.6 7.4 7.8 7.8 8.7 8.3 7.5 7.4 3.0 0.1 29.5 67.9%
Clemson 51.2% 4.8% 46.4% 11   0.7 1.5 2.4 3.3 4.5 5.0 6.4 7.5 8.0 8.3 3.7 0.1 48.8 48.7%
Virginia 54.7% 4.5% 50.2% 10   0.8 1.5 2.8 3.9 4.7 6.0 6.1 7.5 8.0 8.8 4.5 0.1 0.0 45.3 52.6%
SMU 47.2% 3.4% 43.8% 0.5 1.3 1.9 2.8 4.0 4.7 5.7 6.6 7.2 8.3 4.1 0.1 52.8 45.4%
Miami (FL) 31.0% 2.3% 28.7% 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.7 3.5 4.4 5.2 6.4 3.9 0.1 69.0 29.4%
Syracuse 27.4% 2.0% 25.5% 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.4 3.0 3.8 4.5 6.1 3.8 0.1 72.6 26.0%
Notre Dame 27.1% 1.4% 25.7% 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.8 3.7 4.9 6.4 3.7 0.1 0.0 72.9 26.0%
Pittsburgh 28.7% 1.3% 27.4% 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.4 3.4 3.8 4.8 6.1 4.3 0.2 71.3 27.8%
Wake Forest 21.9% 1.0% 20.9% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 2.3 3.1 3.9 5.2 3.4 0.1 78.1 21.1%
Virginia Tech 16.6% 0.8% 15.8% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.4 2.9 4.1 2.7 0.1 83.4 15.9%
California 11.4% 0.6% 10.8% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.9 3.1 2.4 0.1 88.6 10.9%
Stanford 10.2% 0.5% 9.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.9 1.9 0.1 89.9 9.7%
Florida St. 9.4% 0.4% 9.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 90.6 9.0%
Georgia Tech 4.2% 0.3% 3.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.4 0.9 0.0 95.8 3.9%
Boston College 2.0% 0.1% 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.0 98.0 1.9%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 97.7% 0.7% 97.4% 90.3% 65.9% 43.2% 26.9% 16.3% 9.3%
Louisville 92.0% 2.1% 91.1% 77.1% 48.2% 26.2% 13.3% 6.9% 3.3%
North Carolina St. 72.3% 5.0% 69.8% 50.0% 23.1% 10.3% 4.5% 1.8% 0.7%
North Carolina 70.5% 5.0% 67.8% 48.0% 22.3% 10.0% 4.1% 1.8% 0.7%
Clemson 51.2% 5.9% 48.3% 30.0% 11.3% 4.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3%
Virginia 54.7% 7.2% 51.0% 31.4% 11.9% 4.8% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
SMU 47.2% 6.6% 43.8% 26.4% 9.3% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Miami (FL) 31.0% 6.0% 28.0% 15.5% 4.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Syracuse 27.4% 5.7% 24.6% 13.5% 4.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Notre Dame 27.1% 5.8% 23.9% 12.8% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 28.7% 6.3% 25.2% 12.7% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Wake Forest 21.9% 5.0% 19.3% 9.7% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 16.6% 3.9% 14.5% 7.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
California 11.4% 3.5% 9.5% 4.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 10.2% 3.0% 8.4% 3.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 9.4% 2.5% 8.1% 3.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 4.2% 1.3% 3.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 2.0% 0.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.8 0.0 0.3 2.9 12.7 26.5 30.0 19.2 6.9 1.2 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 6.4 0.0 0.7 5.7 18.3 30.3 27.1 13.4 3.8 0.5 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 4.4 0.0 0.5 5.0 17.9 30.9 27.9 13.6 3.7 0.5 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 96.1% 2.2 3.9 22.5 38.0 25.9 8.3 1.4 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 76.1% 1.1 23.9 46.7 24.3 4.7 0.3 0.0
Final Four 48.6% 0.6 51.4 41.2 7.1 0.3
Final Game 28.0% 0.3 72.0 26.9 1.2
Champion 15.0% 0.1 85.0 15.0