Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Duke 100.0%   1   28 - 3 19 - 1 28 - 3 19 - 1 +26.7      +15.2 2 +11.5 5 65.4 256 +23.3 4 +25.8 1
21 Clemson 99.8%   5   26 - 5 18 - 2 26 - 5 18 - 2 +16.4      +8.9 19 +7.5 24 61.9 336 +17.1 12 +21.5 2
23 Louisville 99.4%   6   25 - 6 18 - 2 25 - 6 18 - 2 +15.9      +8.1 25 +7.9 21 71.4 86 +16.8 18 +21.2 3
36 North Carolina 40.4%   20 - 12 13 - 7 21 - 12 13 - 7 +13.3      +8.8 20 +4.5 64 75.4 27 +12.8 44 +12.5 4
49 SMU 14.3%   22 - 9 13 - 7 22 - 9 13 - 7 +11.0      +7.8 29 +3.2 88 71.5 83 +10.6 51 +10.9 6
60 Pittsburgh 0.0%   17 - 15 8 - 12 17 - 15 8 - 12 +9.4      +5.9 54 +3.5 82 65.9 237 +7.3 79 +5.1 10
61 Wake Forest 20.2%   21 - 10 13 - 7 21 - 10 13 - 7 +9.3      +2.6 102 +6.6 36 67.7 194 +12.6 47 +12.3 5
82 Florida St. 0.1%   17 - 14 8 - 12 18 - 14 8 - 12 +6.7      +2.1 114 +4.6 61 73.5 55 +6.2 83 +5.0 11
84 Stanford 0.5%   19 - 12 11 - 9 20 - 12 11 - 9 +6.7      +2.7 100 +3.9 74 66.2 226 +8.1 72 +9.0 7
93 Notre Dame 0.0%   15 - 17 8 - 12 15 - 18 8 - 12 +5.6      +3.4 87 +2.2 106 63.1 314 +4.5 102 +4.0 13
95 Georgia Tech 0.0%   16 - 15 10 - 10 17 - 15 10 - 10 +5.2      +0.8 150 +4.3 69 71.1 97 +5.3 95 +7.9 8
99 Virginia 0.0%   15 - 16 8 - 12 15 - 17 8 - 12 +4.8      +3.6 82 +1.2 133 56.1 361 +6.0 87 +5.3 9
102 Syracuse 0.0%   13 - 18 7 - 13 13 - 19 7 - 13 +4.3      +3.7 80 +0.6 161 70.5 113 +3.3 117 +3.3 14
105 California 0.0%   14 - 18 6 - 14 14 - 19 6 - 14 +3.9      +2.9 97 +1.0 143 68.8 150 +2.7 126 +1.4 15
106 North Carolina St. 0.0%   12 - 19 5 - 15 12 - 19 5 - 15 +3.9      +1.1 143 +2.8 96 63.9 292 +1.5 141 +1.0 16
134 Virginia Tech 0.0%   13 - 19 8 - 12 13 - 19 8 - 12 +1.5      +0.4 161 +1.1 137 64.0 290 +2.4 132 +4.9 12
168 Boston College 0.0%   12 - 19 4 - 16 12 - 19 4 - 16 -0.5      -0.6 196 +0.1 173 67.0 213 +0.6 155 -1.1 17
174 Miami (FL) 0.0%   7 - 24 3 - 17 7 - 24 3 - 17 -0.8      +4.4 73 -5.2 318 68.5 167 -5.1 253 -3.0 18





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.0 100.0
Clemson 2.0 100.0
Louisville 2.0 100.0
North Carolina 4.0 100.0
SMU 4.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 9.0 100.0
Wake Forest 4.0 100.0
Florida St. 9.0 100.0
Stanford 7.0 100.0
Notre Dame 9.0 100.0
Georgia Tech 8.0 100.0
Virginia 9.0 100.0
Syracuse 14.0 100.0
California 15.0 100.0
North Carolina St. 16.0 100.0
Virginia Tech 9.0 100.0
Boston College 17.0 100.0
Miami (FL) 18.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 19 - 1 100.0
Clemson 18 - 2 100.0
Louisville 18 - 2 100.0
North Carolina 13 - 7 100.0
SMU 13 - 7 100.0
Pittsburgh 8 - 12 100.0
Wake Forest 13 - 7 100.0
Florida St. 8 - 12 100.0
Stanford 11 - 9 100.0
Notre Dame 8 - 12 100.0
Georgia Tech 10 - 10 100.0
Virginia 8 - 12 100.0
Syracuse 7 - 13 100.0
California 6 - 14 100.0
North Carolina St. 5 - 15 100.0
Virginia Tech 8 - 12 100.0
Boston College 4 - 16 100.0
Miami (FL) 3 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 100.0% 100.0
Clemson
Louisville
North Carolina
SMU
Pittsburgh
Wake Forest
Florida St.
Stanford
Notre Dame
Georgia Tech
Virginia
Syracuse
California
North Carolina St.
Virginia Tech
Boston College
Miami (FL)


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 79.9% 20.2% 1   74.2 25.1 0.7 0.0 100.0%
Clemson 99.8% 8.4% 91.4% 5   0.3 2.5 12.8 21.6 21.1 18.3 16.2 5.9 1.0 0.0 0.2 99.7%
Louisville 99.4% 8.2% 91.3% 6   0.0 0.6 6.2 13.9 18.4 19.7 24.6 13.2 2.6 0.2 0.6 99.4%
North Carolina 40.4% 2.2% 38.2% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 4.5 28.8 5.2 59.6 39.0%
SMU 14.3% 0.7% 13.6% 0.2 1.0 10.0 3.1 85.7 13.7%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Wake Forest 20.2% 0.5% 19.7% 0.0 0.2 1.8 15.0 3.2 79.8 19.8%
Florida St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Stanford 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0 0.4 0.1 99.5 0.4%
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Virginia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
North Carolina St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.9% 88.3% 74.2% 57.1% 42.2% 29.6%
Clemson 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 78.6% 39.2% 14.6% 5.5% 1.8% 0.6%
Louisville 99.4% 0.0% 99.4% 71.3% 30.5% 10.9% 3.9% 1.2% 0.3%
North Carolina 40.4% 33.0% 25.7% 10.2% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
SMU 14.3% 12.5% 7.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 20.2% 17.6% 9.7% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.7 0.2 38.2 48.9 12.0 0.7
1st Round 100.0% 3.4 0.4 60.3 35.8 3.5 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 2.7 0.0 4.8 33.4 53.8 7.7 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 96.1% 1.6 3.9 40.7 44.5 10.6 0.3
Elite Eight 82.1% 1.0 17.9 64.3 16.8 1.0 0.0
Final Four 62.0% 0.7 38.0 57.3 4.6 0.1
Final Game 44.6% 0.5 55.4 43.9 0.8
Champion 30.5% 0.3 69.5 30.5