Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Duke 100.0%   1   19 - 2 11 - 0 28 - 3 19 - 1 +23.0      +11.6 5 +11.5 4 65.1 266 +23.4 2 +25.7 1
27 Louisville 93.3%   8   16 - 6 9 - 2 23 - 8 16 - 4 +14.4      +8.3 22 +6.1 42 71.1 102 +15.1 28 +19.0 3
32 Clemson 78.0%   10   18 - 4 10 - 1 24 - 7 16 - 4 +13.9      +7.7 29 +6.2 40 62.2 339 +15.2 26 +20.7 2
36 North Carolina 38.7%   13 - 10 6 - 5 19 - 13 12 - 8 +12.7      +6.9 35 +5.8 44 76.5 21 +11.3 51 +10.2 7
42 SMU 38.5%   17 - 5 8 - 3 23 - 8 14 - 6 +11.7      +6.9 36 +4.8 57 73.1 61 +12.0 46 +13.4 5
47 Pittsburgh 36.9%   14 - 8 5 - 6 19 - 12 10 - 10 +10.8      +7.8 27 +3.1 93 66.9 221 +10.6 54 +7.4 8
58 Wake Forest 21.7%   16 - 6 8 - 3 21 - 10 13 - 7 +9.7      +2.0 116 +7.7 25 67.7 197 +14.4 36 +15.1 4
78 Stanford 4.7%   15 - 7 7 - 4 19 - 12 11 - 9 +7.4      +4.9 61 +2.5 102 67.5 204 +9.1 58 +11.8 6
82 Florida St. 0.8%   13 - 9 4 - 7 17 - 14 8 - 12 +7.3      +3.0 94 +4.3 65 74.5 41 +5.4 91 +2.7 15
83 Notre Dame 0.8%   10 - 11 4 - 6 15 - 16 9 - 11 +7.3      +5.8 49 +1.5 136 62.2 337 +3.2 124 +3.7 12
91 North Carolina St. 0.2%   9 - 12 2 - 8 14 - 17 7 - 13 +6.1      +2.7 100 +3.5 81 62.8 324 +1.3 151 -0.1 16
97 Virginia 0.1%   11 - 12 4 - 8 14 - 17 7 - 13 +4.9      +1.9 122 +3.0 94 55.1 363 +4.5 101 +2.7 14
99 Georgia Tech 0.1%   10 - 12 4 - 7 14 - 17 8 - 12 +4.8      +1.1 145 +3.7 76 73.0 67 +2.0 141 +5.6 10
104 Syracuse 0.1%   10 - 12 4 - 7 14 - 17 8 - 12 +4.4      +2.3 112 +2.1 114 72.5 79 +4.2 103 +4.6 11
116 California 0.0%   11 - 11 4 - 7 14 - 17 7 - 13 +2.9      +3.5 81 -0.6 190 69.3 155 +3.4 121 +3.0 13
118 Virginia Tech 0.0%   10 - 12 5 - 6 13 - 18 8 - 12 +2.6      +2.6 107 0.0 169 64.4 290 +3.0 127 +6.9 9
169 Miami (FL) 0.0%   5 - 17 1 - 10 7 - 24 3 - 17 -0.1      +5.1 58 -5.2 324 68.0 192 -7.8 293 -5.9 18
176 Boston College 0.0%   10 - 11 2 - 8 12 - 19 4 - 16 -0.8      +1.1 146 -1.9 228 67.0 217 +1.4 148 -0.6 17





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 1.0 96.6 2.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
Louisville 2.4 4.2 56.9 32.2 5.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Clemson 2.4 8.8 49.6 32.1 7.9 1.2 0.4 0.0
North Carolina 5.9 0.3 2.3 12.2 26.1 29.4 16.6 7.9 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
SMU 4.3 0.1 7.6 17.6 40.8 19.2 8.3 4.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 7.5 0.0 0.2 3.2 8.7 16.4 22.2 24.7 12.8 6.2 3.1 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1
Wake Forest 4.9 0.1 2.0 8.4 31.5 31.4 14.7 7.9 2.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Stanford 6.4 0.0 0.2 1.5 9.3 18.0 22.8 24.6 14.4 5.6 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida St. 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 6.0 11.8 13.6 14.6 14.4 13.0 10.5 7.7 4.0 0.6 0.1
Notre Dame 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 6.0 10.8 15.5 19.5 14.3 10.3 7.1 5.3 4.0 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.0
North Carolina St. 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 3.0 5.7 8.0 8.9 10.6 11.8 12.8 13.6 15.6 6.7 1.8
Virginia 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 5.6 9.6 10.1 12.0 13.5 15.3 16.0 12.6 2.5 0.2
Georgia Tech 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.8 4.5 8.9 14.5 16.3 14.6 12.0 9.8 7.8 5.4 3.0 0.8 0.1
Syracuse 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 6.1 12.0 15.1 14.8 13.2 11.6 9.9 7.5 4.7 1.4 0.1
California 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.2 5.4 8.5 10.1 12.0 14.8 15.5 14.1 11.9 4.3 0.2
Virginia Tech 10.8 0.2 0.6 2.2 4.3 8.6 15.4 17.0 14.6 12.6 9.8 7.3 5.1 2.0 0.5
Miami (FL) 17.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.1 6.1 26.4 63.6
Boston College 16.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 2.2 2.9 5.9 8.3 16.7 47.4 13.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Duke 19 - 1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.0 17.0 37.6 40.6
Louisville 16 - 4 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.9 16.4 28.1 30.8 15.6
Clemson 16 - 4 0.0 0.5 2.3 8.4 18.1 27.3 26.0 14.3 3.2
North Carolina 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.8 10.8 22.1 28.3 22.8 9.4 2.0
SMU 14 - 6 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.1 12.7 21.7 24.6 19.5 10.4 2.6
Pittsburgh 10 - 10 0.2 1.3 6.4 16.5 26.1 26.6 16.2 5.8 1.0
Wake Forest 13 - 7 0.1 0.8 4.1 10.8 20.7 26.6 22.4 11.3 3.0 0.2
Stanford 11 - 9 0.1 1.7 7.7 18.3 26.6 24.3 15.0 5.3 1.1 0.0
Florida St. 8 - 12 0.6 5.0 15.9 25.6 25.3 17.1 8.0 2.2 0.3 0.0
Notre Dame 9 - 11 0.2 1.2 5.2 12.2 19.8 23.4 19.8 12.2 4.8 1.3 0.1
North Carolina St. 7 - 13 0.3 2.2 7.8 15.7 22.1 22.5 16.6 9.0 3.1 0.6 0.1
Virginia 7 - 13 3.4 14.1 26.1 27.4 18.6 8.2 2.0 0.2 0.1
Georgia Tech 8 - 12 0.3 3.5 11.1 21.2 25.8 21.3 11.9 3.9 1.0 0.1
Syracuse 8 - 12 0.9 5.4 15.0 23.9 26.4 18.4 7.7 2.1 0.3 0.0
California 7 - 13 3.4 14.2 26.0 26.7 18.8 8.0 2.5 0.5 0.0
Virginia Tech 8 - 12 2.5 10.5 21.3 26.7 21.3 11.8 4.7 1.1 0.2
Miami (FL) 3 - 17 10.5 27.5 30.5 20.7 8.3 2.2 0.3 0.0
Boston College 4 - 16 8.0 21.1 28.3 22.5 12.7 5.3 1.8 0.4 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Duke 96.6% 88.0 7.7 0.9 0.0
Louisville 4.2% 0.7 2.7 0.8 0.0
Clemson 8.8% 2.5 5.4 0.9 0.0
North Carolina
SMU 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh
Wake Forest 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stanford 0.0% 0.0
Florida St.
Notre Dame
North Carolina St.
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Syracuse
California
Virginia Tech
Miami (FL)
Boston College


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Duke 100.0% 66.4% 33.6% 1   68.8 27.9 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Louisville 93.3% 11.0% 82.3% 8   0.3 1.1 2.4 4.9 7.7 11.2 16.0 18.9 18.2 10.4 2.4 0.0 6.7 92.5%
Clemson 78.0% 9.0% 69.0% 10   0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.0 6.0 9.5 13.1 16.5 16.2 8.6 0.1 22.0 75.8%
North Carolina 38.7% 4.4% 34.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.8 5.6 11.1 15.9 1.1 61.3 35.9%
SMU 38.5% 3.9% 34.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.3 5.1 10.4 17.8 0.8 61.5 36.0%
Pittsburgh 36.9% 1.9% 35.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 2.1 4.6 10.3 17.8 0.8 63.2 35.7%
Wake Forest 21.7% 1.9% 19.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.6 13.6 0.9 78.3 20.2%
Stanford 4.7% 0.6% 4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 3.0 0.4 95.4 4.1%
Florida St. 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 99.2 0.5%
Notre Dame 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 99.2 0.5%
North Carolina St. 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Virginia 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Syracuse 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.3% 80.9% 60.1% 41.4% 26.7% 17.0%
Louisville 93.3% 2.6% 92.3% 55.7% 20.0% 8.7% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2%
Clemson 78.0% 8.9% 74.3% 41.3% 13.4% 5.2% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2%
North Carolina 38.7% 16.9% 31.4% 14.5% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
SMU 38.5% 18.4% 29.8% 12.5% 3.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 36.9% 18.5% 27.5% 11.0% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Wake Forest 21.7% 13.8% 14.2% 4.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 4.7% 3.0% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre Dame 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Miami (FL) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.1 0.0 2.8 21.4 42.2 26.9 6.2 0.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 3.7 0.2 6.2 33.5 42.2 15.9 2.0 0.1
2nd Round 99.9% 2.4 0.1 14.0 42.2 33.5 9.3 0.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 89.4% 1.3 10.6 57.2 27.8 4.2 0.2
Elite Eight 67.8% 0.8 32.2 58.2 9.3 0.4
Final Four 45.7% 0.5 54.4 43.5 2.2
Final Game 28.5% 0.3 71.5 28.1 0.3
Champion 17.6% 0.2 82.4 17.6