Notre Dame
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.6#93
Expected Predictive Rating+4.5#102
Pace63.1#314
Improvement-2.9#298

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#87
First Shot+4.9#62
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#267
Layup/Dunks+2.2#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#135
Freethrows+0.1#170
Improvement-4.4#343

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#106
First Shot+2.6#91
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#221
Layups/Dunks+3.0#75
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#290
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#204
Freethrows+0.9#115
Improvement+1.5#106
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.3 n/a
.500 or above 0.2% 0.9% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 8
Quad 24 - 74 - 14
Quad 35 - 29 - 16
Quad 46 - 215 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 331   Stonehill W 89-60 95%     1 - 0 +15.6 +11.2 +5.3
  Nov 11, 2024 346   Buffalo W 86-77 96%     2 - 0 -6.1 -1.2 -5.8
  Nov 16, 2024 81   @ Georgetown W 84-63 35%     3 - 0 +30.7 +25.3 +7.3
  Nov 19, 2024 264   North Dakota W 75-58 90%     4 - 0 +8.6 -3.1 +12.2
  Nov 22, 2024 206   Elon L 77-84 85%     4 - 1 -12.3 +7.1 -20.1
  Nov 26, 2024 65   Rutgers L 84-85 OT 38%     4 - 2 +7.6 +9.4 -1.8
  Nov 27, 2024 4   Houston L 54-65 6%     4 - 3 +11.8 +0.8 +9.4
  Nov 30, 2024 32   Creighton L 76-80 22%     4 - 4 +9.9 +9.7 +0.2
  Dec 03, 2024 31   @ Georgia L 48-69 15%     4 - 5 -4.3 -6.3 -2.0
  Dec 07, 2024 102   Syracuse W 69-64 65%     5 - 5 1 - 0 +6.6 -2.7 +9.4
  Dec 11, 2024 180   Dartmouth W 77-65 81%     6 - 5 +8.1 +7.7 +0.7
  Dec 22, 2024 355   Le Moyne W 91-62 97%     7 - 5 +12.0 +5.9 +6.0
  Dec 31, 2024 95   @ Georgia Tech L 75-86 41%     7 - 6 1 - 1 -3.1 +14.6 -18.7
  Jan 04, 2025 36   North Carolina L 73-74 32%     7 - 7 1 - 2 +9.6 +5.7 +3.8
  Jan 08, 2025 106   @ North Carolina St. L 65-66 46%     7 - 8 1 - 3 +5.6 +7.0 -1.5
  Jan 11, 2025 1   @ Duke L 78-86 2%     7 - 9 1 - 4 +21.4 +24.5 -3.8
  Jan 13, 2025 168   Boston College W 78-60 80%     8 - 9 2 - 4 +14.7 +15.7 +1.8
  Jan 18, 2025 102   @ Syracuse L 69-77 44%     8 - 10 2 - 5 -0.9 -1.7 +0.7
  Jan 25, 2025 99   @ Virginia W 74-59 43%     9 - 10 3 - 5 +22.5 +18.6 +6.9
  Jan 28, 2025 95   Georgia Tech W 71-68 62%     10 - 10 4 - 5 +5.4 +9.8 -4.0
  Feb 01, 2025 174   @ Miami (FL) L 57-63 64%     10 - 11 4 - 6 -4.1 -7.4 +2.1
  Feb 04, 2025 82   @ Florida St. L 60-67 35%     10 - 12 4 - 7 +2.5 -6.4 +8.9
  Feb 08, 2025 134   Virginia Tech L 63-65 74%     10 - 13 4 - 8 -3.3 -6.8 +3.4
  Feb 12, 2025 168   @ Boston College W 97-94 2OT 63%     11 - 13 5 - 8 +5.3 +12.5 -7.7
  Feb 16, 2025 23   Louisville L 60-75 23%     11 - 14 5 - 9 -1.8 -1.5 -1.5
  Feb 19, 2025 49   SMU L 73-97 40%     11 - 15 5 - 10 -15.7 +0.2 -15.3
  Feb 22, 2025 60   Pittsburgh W 76-72 46%     12 - 15 6 - 10 +10.7 +15.1 -3.9
  Feb 26, 2025 21   @ Clemson L 68-83 11%     12 - 16 6 - 11 +4.2 +10.8 -8.1
  Mar 01, 2025 61   @ Wake Forest L 71-74 27%     12 - 17 6 - 12 +9.0 +7.0 +1.9
  Mar 05, 2025 84   Stanford W 56-54 56%     13 - 17 7 - 12 +5.9 -7.0 +13.2
  Mar 08, 2025 105   California W 112-110 4OT 67%     14 - 17 8 - 12 +3.2 +7.3 -4.7
  Mar 11, 2025 60   Pittsburgh W 55-54 35%     15 - 17 +10.4 -9.1 +19.7
  Mar 12, 2025 36   North Carolina L 72-80 23%    
Projected Record 15 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 100.0 100.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 7.9%
Lose Out 77.8%