Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.2 326
Expected Predictive Rating -9.8 318
Pace 65.5 263
Improvement -2.8 294

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F+ #356 F+ D D+ D+ D-
Defense C #192 C D- B D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 223 50% 342 -3.8 309
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 17 31% 346 +2.1 75
Three Pointers 31% 347 31% 302 -6.4 345
1st FG Attempt 0.86 361 -8.1 361
Second Chance 25.3% 324 1.01 199 0.25 302
Turnovers 18.7% 295
Freethrows 0.27 284 74% 116 0.20 247
Total Offense -9.6 356

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 158 64% 320 -2.8 276
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 338 39% 228 +1.9 43
Three Pointers 46% 58 30% 39 +0.3 168
1st FG Attempt 1.03 197 -0.5 196
Second Chance 35.1% 332 1.10 289 0.39 332
Turnovers 19.0% 64
Freethrows 0.33 275 78% 361 0.26 312
Total Defense -0.6 192

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.5 336 +0.8 310
Shot Type Accuracy -6.6 354 -0.2 172
Possession Length 18.6 315 16.5 56
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 162 0.19 251
Improvement -2.3 #306 -0.5 #215

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 10% 17% 2%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 53.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 60 - 10
Quad 49 - 1010 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 155 @Valparaiso L 63 - 66 11% -5  4% 0 - 1 C +0 F+ -9 C- F F A- +9 A+ D+ A-
 Fri, Nov 7 266 Nicholls St. W 65 - 57 45% +5  78% 1 - 1 C -1 F -15 F C D+ A+ +14 A+ A C-
 Tue, Nov 11 82 @Notre Dame L 58 - 78 4% -7  6% 1 - 2 D -10 D -4 C+ F+ D- D- -9 B F C
 Fri, Nov 14 24 @Kentucky L 53 - 99 1% -27  0% 1 - 3 F -27 F -12 D- F C+ F -17 F F A
 Tue, Nov 25 190 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 81 15% -16  0% 1 - 4 F -20 F+ -9 D- D+ C+ F -13 F F B
 Fri, Nov 28 9 @Purdue L 62 - 109 1% -25  7% 1 - 5 F -23 D -6 B+ F F F -16 F F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 246 Lindenwood L 74 - 82 40% +1  50% 1 - 6 0 - 1 F+ -16 D -5 F B A F+ -10 D+ F D
 Wed, Dec 10 267 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 68 45% -5  6% 1 - 7 F -18 F -17 F D F+ C -2 C C- C
 Sun, Dec 14 8 @Iowa St. L 53 - 78 0% -15  13% 1 - 8 C -1 F+ -10 D- D+ D A- +9 A A B-
 Thu, Dec 18 245 SIU Edwardsville W 76 - 72 OT 40% +0  45% 2 - 8 1 - 1 C- -4 C- -1 B C+ F C- -3 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 230 @Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 68 18% +2  49% 2 - 9 1 - 2 D -10 F -16 F+ F B- B +6 B+ F D
 Sat, Jan 3 219 @Tennessee Martin L 61 - 65 17% +0  47% 2 - 10 1 - 3 C- -4 F+ -8 F F C+ B +4 A+ F A
 Thu, Jan 8 320 Tennessee Tech W 71 - 61 61% -2  28% 3 - 10 2 - 3 C- -3 D+ -3 D- C+ B C+ +1 B- C- A-
 Sat, Jan 10 235 Tennessee St. W 74 - 70 38% +8  95% 4 - 10 3 - 3 C- -3 D -4 C- C B C+ +1 C A B-
 Tue, Jan 13 362 Western Illinois W 57 - 55 82% +4  89% 5 - 10 4 - 3 F -18 F -24 F F F+ B+ +6 A F+ B
 Thu, Jan 15 301 @Arkansas Little Rock L 63 - 74 31% +4  80% 5 - 11 4 - 4 F+ -16 F+ -9 F A F D- -8 D- F C
 Thu, Jan 22 340 @Southern Indiana W 59 - 51 OT 44% -3  10% 6 - 11 5 - 4 C -1 F -18 F F D A+ +17 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 292 @Morehead St. L 68 - 73 30% -0  46% 6 - 12 5 - 5 D -10 D+ -3 F A F D- -7 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 219 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 76 34% -7  1% 6 - 13 5 - 6 D- -14 D -5 F+ C- A+ F+ -10 F D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 230 Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 77 37% -12  0% 6 - 14 5 - 7 F -25 F -14 F+ F+ D- F -12 F A+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 235 @Tennessee St. L 68 - 77 20% -3  8% 6 - 15 5 - 8 D -10 F+ -8 D+ B+ F C- -2 D+ A- F
 Sat, Feb 7 320 @Tennessee Tech W 60 - 54 38% +7  94% 7 - 15 6 - 8 C -1 F -14 F F+ C A+ +14 A F+ A+
 Tue, Feb 10 362 @Western Illinois L 70 - 79 64% -4  25% 7 - 16 6 - 9 F -23 F -13 F D- C- F+ -10 F D- D+
 Sat, Feb 14 301 Arkansas Little Rock W 67 - 66 53%
 Thu, Feb 19 292 Morehead St. W 68 - 67 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 340 Southern Indiana W 67 - 62 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 246 @Lindenwood L 66 - 75 21%
 Sat, Feb 28 245 @SIU Edwardsville L 57 - 66 21%
Totals 9 - 19 8 - 12 -10 F+ -10 F+ D D+ C -1 C D- B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F+ D- D- D F+ 37% 32% 31% D- F+ D C- D D+ D+ B- D+ C D C- B+ C 39% 15% 46% D C D- D+ D- B D+ F D
0.95 50% 31% 31% -7 -2 0.86 25% 1.0 .25 19% .27 74% .20 1.09 64% 39% 30% 0 +1 1.03 35% 1.1 .39 19% .33 78% .21
Nov
4		 Valparaiso F+ A- C- D- C+ 34% 47% 18% F C- C F F F A+ A+ A+ A- C- A+ A+ A+ 27% 9% 64% F A+ D+ C D+ A- F A+ F
0.90 69% 33% 29% 0 -4 0.95 31% 0.3 .09 29% .62 81% .50 0.94 58% 0% 18% -19 +1 0.66 34% 1.1 .36 20% .62 60% .37
Nov
7		 Nicholls St. F F F F F 40% 26% 35% D F D+ B+ C D+ A+ C- A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ 33% 24% 43% B+ A+ F A+ A C- F B- F
0.93 47% 27% 27% -11 -1 0.79 32% 1.2 .38 23% .54 76% .41 0.82 63% 8% 19% -15 -1 0.69 33% 0.4 .13 16% .46 63% .29
Nov
11		 Notre Dame D F A+ C- B 20% 38% 42% F C+ B- F F+ D- D A+ C D- D- C+ A A- 39% 16% 45% D- B F C- F C C+ D C
0.95 44% 53% 32% +1 -4 0.98 28% 0.4 .13 18% .24 83% .20 1.28 68% 38% 27% 0 +1 1.02 53% 1.0 .53 16% .29 73% .22
Nov
14		 Kentucky F C F B D+ 18% 47% 35% F D- F F F C+ B D- B- F F F F+ F 50% 10% 40% F F F F F A B+ C- B
0.78 56% 22% 35% -7 -5 0.78 13% 0.6 .08 16% .33 68% .23 1.46 80% 60% 40% +17 +2 1.40 57% 1.4 .79 19% .29 75% .22
Nov
25		 Central Arkansas F+ A- D F D- 33% 25% 42% D- D- F A+ D+ C+ D- A+ C+ F F A+ D F 36% 6% 57% F+ F F F F B C+ A- B
0.95 69% 33% 25% -3 -1 0.94 17% 1.6 .28 19% .23 92% .21 1.28 82% 0% 37% +9 +2 1.23 35% 1.8 .62 19% .25 62% .16
Nov
28		 Purdue D A+ A+ F A- 27% 31% 41% D+ B+ F F F F D+ C- D+ F F C- F F 36% 25% 39% C+ F F F F C+ C F D-
0.86 79% 50% 24% +3 -2 1.04 13% 0.8 .10 24% .16 67% .11 1.52 85% 43% 50% +20 -1 1.41 46% 1.5 .67 14% .29 89% .26
Dec
6		 Lindenwood D D- F F F 61% 27% 12% C F C B+ B A D+ C+ D+ F+ F+ B A+ C- 53% 14% 33% F D+ F+ F F D F+ F F
1.03 50% 19% 14% -14 +1 0.76 33% 1.2 .40 13% .29 72% .21 1.14 67% 29% 18% -5 +2 0.96 38% 1.4 .53 17% .39 78% .30
Dec
10		 Eastern Kentucky F D F D- F 39% 33% 28% D- F F B D F+ D- A+ C C D- F A C+ 23% 13% 64% D- C D+ C+ C- C C F D-
0.94 56% 20% 31% -8 -1 0.83 24% 1.1 .27 19% .27 86% .24 1.08 64% 67% 27% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.1 .38 17% .25 92% .23
Dec
14		 Iowa St. F+ F F C- D- 29% 33% 39% D+ D- D+ C D+ D C- B+ C A- F F A+ A 42% 17% 42% C- A B+ A- A B- F F+ F
0.75 43% 25% 32% -10 -2 0.78 23% 1.0 .23 26% .23 75% .17 1.11 75% 50% 20% 0 +1 1.04 34% 0.9 .31 17% .46 74% .34
Dec
18		 SIU Edwardsville C- A- B C- B+ 34% 28% 38% D+ B D+ B+ C+ F C- B- C- C- C A+ F F 32% 22% 46% D- F A- A+ A+ B- C F D
1.07 65% 43% 32% +2 -1 1.04 31% 1.1 .34 22% .31 76% .23 1.01 56% 18% 48% +5 -1 1.10 22% 0.5 .11 20% .28 81% .23
Jan
1		 Southeast Missouri St. F F D+ B+ F 53% 18% 29% B- F+ F F F B- D+ D+ D+ B B+ A+ A A+ 65% 4% 31% F B+ D F F D C- A+ A-
0.84 42% 38% 38% -7 +1 0.91 16% 0.4 .06 17% .38 73% .28 0.97 48% 0% 27% -11 +4 0.88 32% 1.9 .62 14% .33 45% .15
Jan
3		 Tennessee Martin F+ B D F F+ 18% 33% 49% F F D+ F F C+ A D B+ B A F A+ A+ 22% 15% 63% C+ A+ C+ F F A F F F
0.91 67% 31% 25% -7 -3 0.82 30% 0.5 .16 18% .42 65% .27 0.97 44% 67% 19% -13 0 0.76 34% 1.5 .50 27% .53 85% .45
Jan
8		 Tennessee Tech D+ C F C F+ 47% 17% 36% B D- C+ C+ C+ B B- D+ C+ C+ C+ D- A B 33% 18% 49% C- B- D+ C C- A- F F F
1.14 59% 13% 35% -3 +1 0.98 33% 1.3 .42 13% .33 72% .24 0.98 54% 43% 26% -6 0 0.90 32% 1.0 .32 24% .44 90% .40
Jan
10		 Tennessee St. D F F A+ C- 47% 21% 32% D+ C- C C C B F A- F C+ B+ F A- C 34% 25% 42% C- C C+ A+ A B- F C F
1.08 48% 27% 53% +2 +1 1.08 31% 1.1 .34 16% .19 82% .16 1.02 50% 54% 27% -3 -1 0.94 29% 0.6 .18 18% .39 73% .28
Jan
13		 Western Illinois F D- F F F 45% 34% 20% F F F+ F F F+ A+ B A+ B+ A B A+ A+ 57% 21% 21% F A F C- F+ B D+ F F
0.86 55% 20% 11% -14 -1 0.70 26% 0.9 .23 18% .42 78% .33 0.83 41% 30% 10% -19 +1 0.66 34% 0.9 .32 20% .34 83% .28
Jan
15		 Arkansas Little Rock F+ F C- A- F 31% 31% 38% F F D A+ A F F+ A D D- F B- C- D- 32% 30% 39% C- D- F D F C F F F
0.98 43% 36% 41% -1 -2 0.96 30% 1.6 .47 26% .21 80% .17 1.15 71% 31% 35% +3 -2 1.05 44% 1.1 .47 19% .32 82% .27
Jan
22		 Southern Indiana F C- F+ F F 28% 50% 22% F F F B- F D B B B+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 33% 18% 49% C- A+ D+ F F A+ F D- F
0.82 57% 28% 18% -10 -5 0.72 18% 1.0 .18 18% .37 77% .29 0.71 38% 22% 8% -28 0 0.45 29% 1.1 .33 24% .49 70% .34
Jan
24		 Morehead St. D+ F F A+ F 45% 28% 28% D- F A+ C+ A F A+ A+ A+ D- D+ F F F 38% 43% 20% A F F D F A+ F F F
1.09 24% 31% 46% -12 0 0.77 51% 0.9 .49 19% .48 83% .40 1.17 60% 47% 50% +9 -3 1.15 52% 1.0 .52 27% .53 88% .46
Jan
29		 Tennessee Martin D B- F F F 38% 28% 34% C- F+ D+ B- C- A+ A+ F A- F+ F F F F 34% 7% 59% F F D C D+ A+ F C+ F+
1.01 65% 20% 22% -8 -1 0.83 30% 1.0 .30 12% .49 59% .29 1.12 71% 67% 42% +14 +1 1.32 39% 0.9 .36 30% .42 65% .27
Jan
31		 Southeast Missouri St. F F F A+ F 49% 20% 31% C F+ F+ C- F+ D- F C- F F F A+ F F 43% 8% 49% F+ F C- A+ A+ D+ A+ D- A
0.91 38% 30% 47% -6 +1 0.92 20% 1.2 .23 21% .29 73% .21 1.18 71% 25% 46% +13 +2 1.33 30% 0.6 .17 15% .20 73% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Tennessee St. F+ C- D B D+ 47% 18% 36% C- D+ F+ A+ B+ F F+ F F C- F A- A+ D+ 43% 27% 29% D+ D+ A+ C A- F F D- F
0.99 57% 38% 38% +1 +1 1.07 23% 1.8 .42 25% .29 67% .19 1.12 77% 29% 20% 0 -1 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 10% .44 78% .34
Feb
7		 Tennessee Tech F D F D+ F 39% 37% 24% F F F B- F+ C C A- C+ A+ C+ D+ A+ A+ 39% 13% 47% F+ A F C F+ A+ F F F
0.93 53% 28% 33% -6 -2 0.86 22% 1.3 .28 15% .29 81% .24 0.84 53% 40% 17% -14 +1 0.76 40% 1.0 .40 33% .46 85% .39
Feb
10		 Western Illinois F D A F F+ 28% 37% 35% F F F B D- C- F F F F+ F C+ F F 25% 35% 39% A- F C+ F D- D+ F F+ F
0.97 56% 48% 25% -2 -3 0.93 24% 1.2 .30 15% .23 57% .13 1.10 69% 33% 40% +5 -3 1.06 24% 1.3 .30 15% .43 73% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.2 0.2 0.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 0.5 2.7 6th
7th 0.6 7.7 16.2 6.4 0.3 31.3 7th
8th 1.7 15.4 24.7 10.0 0.5 52.3 8th
9th 3.3 6.8 2.8 0.2 13.0 9th
10th 0.3 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 11th
Total 5.2 22.8 35.3 26.7 9.0 1.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 1.0% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.1 1.0
10-10 9.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 8.9
9-11 26.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.3 26.4
8-12 35.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.2 35.1
7-13 22.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 22.8
6-14 5.2% 5.2
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.9%