Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.7 #310
Expected Predictive Rating -7.2 #281
Pace 65.9 #269
Improvement -0.3 #202

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #358 F D- D- C F
Defense #150 C+ F C+ D+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #244 1.04 #308 -3.4 #294
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #16 0.62 #337 +2.2 #75
Three Pointers 32% #342 0.91 #302 -6.4 #344
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #354 -7.5 #355
Freethrows 16.6 #228 77% #57 12.7 #174
Second Chance 25.5% #315 0.97 #279 0.25 #318
Turnovers 18.6% #305
Total Offense -9.2 #358

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #152 1.25 #294 -2.6 #267
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #348 0.78 #210 +2.3 #31
Three Pointers 46% #48 0.83 #8 +1.8 #120
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #130 +1.5 #130
Freethrows 18.0 #219 78% #353 14.1 #290
Second Chance 35.7% #333 1.16 #309 0.41 #346
Turnovers 17.5% #112
Total Defense +0.5 #150

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.2% #339 1.9% #333
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.9% #344 -4.7% #87
Possession Length 19.0 #333 16.5 #53
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #141 0.19 #237
Improvement -2.4 #307 +2.1 #61

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 4.5% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 6.7% 12.7% 3.1%
.500 or above in Conference 59.1% 77.3% 48.0%
Conference Champion 2.1% 4.3% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four2.0% 2.8% 1.5%
First Round1.9% 3.1% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Away) - 37.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 8
Quad 411 - 912 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 167 @Valparaiso L 63 - 66 16% -5  0 - 1 -1 -7 C- F F +6 A+ D- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 232 Nicholls St. W 65 - 57 43% +5  1 - 1 +1 -12 F C+ D+ +13 A+ A+ C-
 Tue, Nov 11 84 @Notre Dame L 58 - 78 5% -7  1 - 2 -10 -0 C+ F F -12 B F C+
 Fri, Nov 14 25 @Kentucky L 53 - 99 1% -27  1 - 3 -27 -9 F F B- -19 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 236 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 81 24% -16  1 - 4 -22 -7 D- D- D -18 F F B+
 Fri, Nov 28 5 @Purdue L 62 - 109 1% -25  1 - 5 -23 -3 A- F F -18 F F B
 Sat, Dec 6 237 Lindenwood L 74 - 82 44% +1  1 - 6 0 - 1 -15 -2 F B A+ -13 D+ F D
 Wed, Dec 10 254 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 68 48% -5  1 - 7 -17 -14 F D- F -4 C C C
 Sun, Dec 14 8 @Iowa St. L 53 - 78 1% -15  1 - 8 -2 -8 F D+ D- +6 A+ A+ A-
 Thu, Dec 18 257 SIU Edwardsville W 76 - 72 OT 48% +0  2 - 8 1 - 1 -4 +1 B+ C F -5 F A+ B
 Thu, Jan 1 245 @Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 68 25% +2  2 - 9 1 - 2 -11 -13 F F C- +2 A F C
 Sat, Jan 3 226 @Tennessee Martin L 61 - 65 23% +8  2 - 10 1 - 3 -5 -7 F F F +2 B+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 342 Tennessee Tech W 71 - 61 72% -2  3 - 10 2 - 3 -5 +1 F C+ A- -4 C D+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 241 Tennessee St. W 74 - 70 45% +8  4 - 10 3 - 3 -3 -1 D+ C B- -2 C A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 13 356 Western Illinois W 57 - 55 79% +4  5 - 10 4 - 3 -15 -19 F F F +4 A+ F B+
 Thu, Jan 15 282 @Arkansas Little Rock L 63 - 74 32% +4  5 - 11 4 - 4 -15 -7 F A+ F -9 D- F C-
 Thu, Jan 22 329 @Southern Indiana W 59 - 51 OT 46% -3  6 - 11 5 - 4 +0 -16 F F F +16 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 302 @Morehead St. L 65 - 69 38%
 Thu, Jan 29 226 Tennessee Martin L 62 - 64 44%
 Sat, Jan 31 245 Southeast Missouri St. L 67 - 68 46%
 Thu, Feb 5 241 @Tennessee St. L 68 - 75 25%
 Sat, Feb 7 342 @Tennessee Tech L 67 - 68 50%
 Tue, Feb 10 356 @Western Illinois W 64 - 62 59%
 Sat, Feb 14 282 Arkansas Little Rock W 67 - 66 54%
 Thu, Feb 19 302 Morehead St. W 68 - 66 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 329 Southern Indiana W 67 - 62 68%
 Thu, Feb 26 237 @Lindenwood L 66 - 73 25%
 Sat, Feb 28 257 @SIU Edwardsville L 59 - 66 27%
Totals 11 - 17 10 - 10 -9 -9 F D- D- +1 C+ F C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.7 0.9 0.1 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.4 2.1 0.1 7.1 3rd
4th 0.2 3.6 4.6 0.4 8.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 7.4 1.7 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 7.7 5.2 0.1 14.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 7.5 8.7 1.2 18.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.4 10.6 10.0 2.4 0.0 28.2 8th
9th 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.4 2.0 6.3 13.2 18.9 21.2 17.9 11.6 5.8 2.0 0.5 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 87.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 49.4% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 10.4% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.5% 30.4% 30.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
14-6 2.0% 18.1% 18.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 1.7
13-7 5.8% 10.3% 10.3% 15.9 0.0 0.6 5.2
12-8 11.6% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6 11.0
11-9 17.9% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5 17.3
10-10 21.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.4 20.8
9-11 18.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 18.8
8-12 13.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.2
7-13 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.3
6-14 2.0% 2.0
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.9 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%