Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -2.1 196
Results Rating -0.7 168
Consistency 0.17 270
Pace 74.9 34
Improvement +5.4 27

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 173 D+ C+ C C- D-
Defense C- 222 D C- B D- F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 172 C 58% 179 +0.1 178
2 Pt. Jumpers 64% 6 C- 36% 229 +3.7 36
Three Pointers 30% 355 D 31% 311 -7.3 355
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.4 333 D+ -2.2 257
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 289
Second Chance C+ 31.9% 129 C 1.03 183 C+ 0.33 132
Opponents' Steals C- 10.0% 250
Other Turnovers B- 6.5% 86
Turnovers C 16.5% 167
Freethrows D+ 0.28 265 B 76% 66 C- 0.21 216
Total Offense C -0.4 173

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 181 C+ 9.9% 116
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 17% 297 B+ 2.0% 15
Three Pointers F+ 73% 350 C- 1.0% 233
Total F+ 45% 346 B- 4.8% 84


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 30 C- 59% 214 +4.1 316
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 349 F 46% 353 -1.4 76
Three Pointers 41% 174 D 37% 304 +1.8 272
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.2 355 D +3.2 303
1st FG Attempt D 1.11 327
Second Chance C 30.6% 197 C- 1.07 253 C- 0.33 232
Turnovers from Steals B+ 12.3% 23
Other Turnovers C- 6.8% 244
Turnovers B 19.1% 52
Freethrows D- 0.37 334 D+ 74% 266 D- 0.27 339
Total Defense C- -1.7 222

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 173 C- 9.2% 242
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 219 C+ 6.2% 90
Three Pointers C 84% 171 A- 2.0% 26
Total C 57% 202 C 5.8% 156

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.7 101 16.6 63
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 73 0.22 333
Consistency 0.11 79 0.16 355
Improvement +4.5 17 +0.9 142

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 214 201 182
Results Rating Rank 189 179 152
Conference Record 15 - 5 15 - 5 15 - 5
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38% 64% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.2 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four2% 3% 0%
First Round37% 63% 0%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 01 - 2
Quad 33 - 14 - 4
Quad 415 - 619 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 68 @Belmont L 79 - 87 10% -6  2% 0 - 1 C+ +4 D -5 F C- B- A +9 B A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 130 @Western Kentucky L 82 - 95 25% -9  0% 0 - 2 D+ -8 C+ +3 B F C F -10 F F D
 Thu, Nov 20 13 @Tennessee L 60 - 89 2% -22  0% 0 - 3 D+ -7 F -11 D- D+ F B+ +7 B D+ A-
 Tue, Nov 25 247 @UNC Asheville W 75 - 73 49% -3  17% 1 - 3 C +0 D -5 F+ A- F B +5 F B A+
 Sun, Nov 30 286 @Chattanooga W 70 - 64 58% +8  99% 2 - 3 C+ +2 D+ -4 F B- C+ B+ +6 A- D F
 Wed, Dec 3 304 @Alabama A&M L 53 - 80 63% -9  0% 2 - 4 F -33 F -22 F C+ F F -12 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 102 @UNLV W 63 - 60 19% -2  15% 3 - 4 B +10 F -12 F+ A F A+ +22 A+ A A+
 Thu, Dec 18 230 Tennessee Martin W 78 - 71 68% -1  28% 4 - 4 1 - 0 C +0 C+ +3 B- D+ A C- -3 B D B-
 Sat, Dec 20 223 Southeast Missouri St. L 82 - 91 67% -10  5% 4 - 5 1 - 1 F+ -16 C- -1 D+ F+ A F -14 F F A+
 Tue, Dec 30 310 @Tennessee Tech W 88 - 76 65% +9  83% 5 - 5 2 - 1 B- +6 B+ +9 C- A+ D+ D+ -4 F B+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 299 @Arkansas Little Rock W 84 - 79 61% +3  88% 6 - 5 3 - 1 C -0 C +1 F A- B+ C -1 C+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 364 @Western Illinois W 90 - 68 90% +14  95% 7 - 5 4 - 1 B- +6 B +6 C A D+ C -0 B D D+
 Sat, Jan 10 326 @Eastern Illinois L 70 - 74 70% -8  0% 7 - 6 4 - 2 D- -12 D+ -4 D- F B- D- -8 F F+ D
 Thu, Jan 15 283 Morehead St. W 105 - 100 OT 77% +5  94% 8 - 6 5 - 2 C- -5 A +12 A+ B C+ F -17 D- C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 337 Southern Indiana W 73 - 67 88% +4  78% 9 - 6 6 - 2 D -9 D -5 D+ F+ A+ D+ -4 F C+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 250 @SIU Edwardsville L 66 - 74 49% -2  36% 9 - 7 6 - 3 D -10 C +1 F B A F -12 F B- B
 Sat, Jan 24 276 @Lindenwood W 96 - 86 55% +5  85% 10 - 7 7 - 3 B- +7 A- +11 A+ C D D -6 F C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 29 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 63 80% -2  30% 11 - 7 8 - 3 C- -4 F -10 D- C D B+ +6 A+ F C+
 Mon, Feb 2 310 Tennessee Tech L 85 - 90 83% -10  3% 11 - 8 8 - 4 F+ -17 B- +5 D+ A B- F -22 F C+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 326 Eastern Illinois W 77 - 68 86% +3  81% 12 - 8 9 - 4 C- -5 C -0 D+ F A+ D+ -4 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 364 Western Illinois W 83 - 56 96% +21  99% 13 - 8 10 - 4 B- +5 C +0 C+ F B B+ +5 B- B+ B-
 Thu, Feb 12 337 @Southern Indiana W 73 - 71 75% -3  19% 14 - 8 11 - 4 D+ -7 C -0 F A+ F D- -7 F D+ C+
 Sat, Feb 14 283 @Morehead St. L 86 - 94 56% -6  14% 14 - 9 11 - 5 D- -12 B+ +7 F B A F -19 F F B
 Thu, Feb 19 276 Lindenwood W 89 - 80 76% -2  40% 15 - 9 12 - 5 C -0 C +1 F A+ B C- -2 F+ C+ A
 Sat, Feb 21 250 SIU Edwardsville W 80 - 53 71% +16  93% 16 - 9 13 - 5 A +19 A +13 A+ A- D- A +9 C B+ A
 Thu, Feb 26 223 @Southeast Missouri St. W 79 - 71 44% -1  46% 17 - 9 14 - 5 B- +7 C+ +2 F+ D+ B B +5 B+ C C-
 Sat, Feb 28 230 @Tennessee Martin W 67 - 42 45% +17  90% 18 - 9 15 - 5 A+ +24 C -0 C C+ D A+ +26 A+ A+ A+
Totals 18 - 9 15 - 5 -2 C +0 F+ D+ D- C- -2 D B C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C C- D D+ 39% 64% 30% D- D+ C+ C C+ C D+ B C- C- C- F D D 45% 14% 41% F+ D C C- C- B D- D+ D-
1.08 58% 36% 31% -2 -1 0.95 32% 1.0 .33 17% .28 76% .21 1.11 59% 46% 37% +3 +1 1.11 31% 1.1 .33 19% .37 74% .21
Nov
8		 Belmont D F F C- F 32% 30% 38% D- F B F+ C- B- B- A+ B+ A F A+ A+ B+ 57% 6% 37% F B B A+ A+ B+ F B- F
0.97 45% 21% 33% -10 -2 0.79 36% 0.8 .30 16% .29 85% .25 1.07 76% 0% 26% +4 +3 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 21% .51 67% .34
Nov
16		 Western Kentucky C+ F A A+ B+ 30% 28% 42% D B C+ F F C A+ B A+ F F+ F A+ D- 68% 8% 25% F F D+ F F D F B- F
1.07 47% 50% 43% +5 -2 1.10 29% 0.4 .11 18% .54 74% .40 1.24 64% 75% 15% 0 +4 1.09 33% 1.3 .42 12% .47 72% .34
Nov
20		 Tennessee F A+ F F D- 24% 29% 47% D- D- B+ F D+ F A+ A+ A+ B+ C A+ C+ B+ 46% 12% 42% D- B A+ F D+ A- F F F
0.76 73% 23% 19% -11 -2 0.76 30% 0.6 .18 28% .44 76% .33 1.12 61% 17% 33% -2 +2 1.02 36% 1.5 .54 21% .56 89% .50
Nov
25		 UNC Asheville D D+ C+ F F+ 49% 26% 25% D+ F+ B+ B+ A- F D+ A C B D+ F F F 35% 43% 22% B- F C+ B+ B A+ F B F
1.02 54% 43% 23% -5 0 0.92 38% 1.1 .41 20% .29 76% .22 0.99 62% 63% 63% +21 -3 1.38 28% 0.9 .24 31% .55 64% .36
Nov
30		 Chattanooga D+ F F+ D F 43% 26% 30% D+ F D- A+ B- C+ F A+ C- B+ B+ A+ A- A+ 35% 4% 62% F A- B F D F B- F C
1.07 48% 29% 31% -8 0 0.85 26% 1.6 .41 12% .26 93% .24 0.98 50% 0% 28% -10 +2 0.87 17% 1.7 .28 11% .24 86% .21
Dec
3		 Alabama A&M F F+ F F F 33% 33% 35% F F A+ F C+ F A- F D+ F D F F F 42% 19% 40% F+ F F B F A+ F C F
0.81 50% 25% 18% -15 -2 0.67 47% 0.7 .34 21% .39 55% .22 1.23 61% 50% 47% +11 +1 1.26 41% 0.9 .38 23% .54 74% .40
Dec
13		 UNLV F C A+ F F+ 46% 28% 26% C- F+ B+ B+ A F F F F A+ C+ C+ A+ A+ 51% 12% 37% F A+ C- A+ A A+ F A+ F
0.88 57% 50% 8% -8 0 0.86 36% 1.2 .44 25% .24 38% .09 0.84 57% 40% 20% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.5 .18 25% .60 59% .36
Dec
18		 Tennessee Martin C+ B- A- C B+ 41% 43% 17% F B- F+ A- D+ A D+ A C C- A- F A+ A- 43% 16% 41% D- B D+ D- D B- F F+ F
1.10 64% 43% 33% +4 -3 1.06 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 78% .23 1.00 47% 57% 22% -9 +1 0.86 37% 1.0 .37 23% .53 72% .38
Dec
20		 Southeast Missouri St. C- B F B+ C- 40% 36% 25% F D+ D F F+ A A+ D A+ F D- F F F 44% 13% 42% D F D- F F A+ F F F
1.07 62% 26% 38% -1 -2 0.96 23% 0.9 .21 13% .54 72% .39 1.19 65% 67% 42% +12 +1 1.29 32% 1.7 .54 25% .50 76% .38
Dec
30		 Tennessee Tech B+ B- F+ A+ C+ 25% 37% 39% F C- A- A+ A+ D+ F A+ F D+ F D+ D- F 42% 20% 38% D F B- A- B+ B B+ A A-
1.25 64% 29% 45% +5 -3 1.05 39% 1.6 .64 16% .12 86% .10 1.08 76% 40% 37% +10 0 1.22 28% 0.9 .24 21% .24 69% .16
Jan
3		 Arkansas Little Rock C C+ F F F 49% 25% 26% D+ F C- A+ A- B+ B A+ A- C C A C+ B- 42% 27% 31% F+ C+ D F F C+ F F+ F
1.13 64% 14% 27% -6 0 0.91 35% 1.3 .45 15% .33 81% .27 1.06 60% 23% 33% -4 -1 0.94 33% 1.2 .41 19% .48 72% .35
Jan
8		 Western Illinois B B- D- C+ C 57% 17% 26% B- C C- A+ A D+ A- F B- C C+ A+ A+ A+ 71% 4% 25% F B D- C D D+ F F F
1.25 67% 33% 36% +5 +2 1.15 32% 1.7 .55 15% .38 65% .25 0.94 50% 0% 8% -17 +4 0.77 29% 1.0 .29 15% .56 74% .41
Jan
10		 Eastern Illinois D+ F+ A+ F D 34% 25% 42% F+ D- D- F F B- A- D- B D- B A- F F 47% 21% 32% F F D- D- F+ D A F A-
1.02 50% 54% 27% -3 -1 0.94 29% 0.6 .18 18% .39 73% .28 1.08 48% 27% 53% +2 +1 1.08 31% 1.1 .34 16% .19 82% .16
Jan
15		 Morehead St. A A- A- A+ A+ 39% 34% 27% F A+ D A+ B C+ A- D+ B F A- F F F+ 40% 26% 33% C- D- C- C C- F F F F
1.35 68% 47% 67% +20 -2 1.39 31% 1.3 .41 14% .39 69% .27 1.29 48% 53% 42% +4 -1 1.09 36% 0.9 .33 10% .49 85% .42
Jan
17		 Southern Indiana D B- F D- D+ 52% 20% 29% C+ D+ F C+ F+ A+ F D+ F D+ B+ F D- F 35% 17% 48% D F D B+ C+ B A+ C- A+
1.08 62% 27% 31% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.0 .21 7% .22 71% .16 0.99 44% 44% 36% -2 0 0.98 33% 0.7 .23 19% .17 67% .11
Jan
22		 SIU Edwardsville C C- F F F 43% 24% 33% B- F A+ F+ B A A- A+ A+ F F A+ F F 41% 24% 34% D- F F A+ B- B F C- F
1.04 55% 25% 18% -13 0 0.76 46% 0.8 .37 11% .39 82% .32 1.17 76% 20% 50% +11 0 1.24 34% 0.7 .24 21% .50 68% .34
Jan
24		 Lindenwood A- B- A+ A+ A+ 56% 23% 21% C+ A+ C C+ C D F C- F D C+ F F F 38% 28% 34% A- F A F C+ B- D- F F
1.23 63% 64% 46% +12 +1 1.29 31% 1.1 .34 19% .16 70% .11 1.10 55% 47% 39% +4 -1 1.08 24% 1.3 .31 20% .35 91% .32
Jan
29		 Arkansas Little Rock F C D D+ D- 43% 23% 34% D+ D- F A+ C D A+ F B+ B+ B A+ A+ A+ 28% 30% 43% C A+ D+ F F C+ A- F C+
1.01 63% 30% 33% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.2 .33 20% .42 61% .25 0.91 53% 19% 22% -15 -2 0.69 33% 1.4 .44 19% .16 89% .14
Feb
2		 Tennessee Tech B- C+ B+ F+ D+ 41% 29% 30% D+ D+ A+ F+ A B- C C C F A+ D- F F 35% 15% 50% D F C+ C+ C+ D+ F C+ F
1.23 61% 44% 29% +1 -1 1.02 48% 1.1 .50 13% .28 76% .22 1.30 38% 43% 65% +17 0 1.37 29% 1.0 .29 17% .44 76% .33
Feb
5		 Eastern Illinois C A+ F F C- 43% 27% 29% D- D+ F D+ F A+ A+ C A+ D+ D+ C- F+ F 47% 18% 36% F F B F F A+ C- A C+
1.12 77% 29% 20% -1 -1 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 10% .44 78% .34 0.99 57% 38% 38% +1 +1 1.07 23% 1.8 .42 25% .29 67% .19
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Western Illinois C A+ D+ F B- 45% 29% 26% F+ C+ C- F F B F A+ D- B+ B D- A+ B 35% 24% 41% D+ B- D+ A+ B+ B- F F F
1.22 85% 35% 27% +8 -1 1.17 33% 0.4 .12 12% .20 92% .18 0.82 47% 42% 20% -12 -1 0.78 26% 0.6 .16 19% .40 73% .29
Feb
12		 Southern Indiana C F F A+ F 37% 42% 21% F F A+ B+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ D- D F C- F 49% 23% 28% D- F F A- D+ C+ F A+ F
1.10 38% 28% 44% -9 -3 0.79 46% 1.1 .51 21% .54 86% .46 1.07 57% 50% 33% +2 0 1.07 41% 0.7 .28 18% .63 44% .28
Feb
14		 Morehead St. B+ F F A F+ 31% 33% 35% F F B- B B A A+ A+ A+ F C- F F F 54% 11% 35% F F F F F B F D- F
1.24 47% 25% 41% -4 -2 0.90 39% 1.1 .41 10% .58 89% .51 1.36 60% 80% 50% +14 +2 1.35 44% 1.2 .52 20% .51 79% .40
Feb
19		 Lindenwood C C- D+ F F 38% 38% 25% F F A A+ A+ B A+ C A+ C- C+ D+ F F 49% 22% 29% C- F+ B- C- C+ A F D- F
1.12 57% 33% 21% -7 -2 0.84 41% 1.4 .57 15% .46 71% .33 1.01 56% 36% 40% +1 +1 1.06 28% 1.1 .31 24% .41 72% .30
Feb
21		 SIU Edwardsville A A- A+ A+ A+ 42% 21% 38% B- A+ B A- A- D- F+ B+ D- A D B+ B C 28% 22% 50% D+ C A+ F+ B+ A B- A+ A+
1.26 65% 60% 44% +13 0 1.29 38% 1.1 .42 19% .25 77% .19 0.83 62% 30% 30% -3 -1 0.93 18% 1.2 .21 24% .23 27% .06
Feb
26		 Southeast Missouri St. C+ F A D- D- 43% 35% 22% F F+ B+ F D+ B A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ F A 54% 10% 36% F B+ B F C C- F D F
1.07 40% 50% 30% -5 -1 0.89 34% 0.8 .28 15% .67 86% .57 0.96 37% 20% 39% -11 +2 0.86 24% 1.4 .32 16% .45 71% .32
Feb
28		 Tennessee Martin C A- B+ D+ B 20% 48% 32% F C C+ C+ C+ D F A+ F A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 29% 24% 48% B A+ A+ B A+ A+ A- F+ B
1.02 70% 42% 31% +3 -5 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 21% .19 80% .15 0.64 42% 40% 20% -14 -1 0.71 16% 0.8 .13 29% .23 73% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 38.3% 38.3% 15.2 0.1 4.7 21.7 11.7 61.7
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 38.3% 38.3% 0.0% 15.2 61.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 38.3% 100.0% 15.2 0.3 12.4 56.7 30.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 21.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 40.2%