Tennessee St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.0#289
Expected Predictive Rating-9.5#316
Pace75.9#30
Improvement+4.2#36

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#292
First Shot-4.8#310
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#148
Layup/Dunks+2.4#95
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#83
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.2#346
Freethrows-2.6#319
Improvement+2.1#71

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#252
First Shot-1.8#238
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#264
Layups/Dunks-1.5#235
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#111
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#164
Freethrows-1.9#304
Improvement+2.1#81
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.9% 7.5% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 10.1% 11.8% 2.9%
.500 or above in Conference 79.2% 84.7% 55.8%
Conference Champion 1.6% 1.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four5.4% 5.7% 4.2%
First Round4.1% 4.6% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Home) - 81.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 41 - 6
Quad 412 - 1113 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 77   @ Colorado St. L 79-87 OT 7%     0 - 1 +1.9 +0.4 +2.6
  Nov 10, 2024 167   @ Wyoming L 66-81 19%     0 - 2 -12.5 -5.1 -7.2
  Nov 13, 2024 310   Howard L 84-88 OT 56%     0 - 3 -12.6 -1.3 -11.1
  Nov 16, 2024 360   Alabama A&M W 81-71 82%     1 - 3 -6.9 -10.4 +2.1
  Nov 25, 2024 138   @ Chattanooga L 78-85 16%     1 - 4 -3.2 -1.8 -0.8
  Nov 26, 2024 144   Bryant L 85-97 22%     1 - 5 -10.8 -0.3 -8.8
  Dec 01, 2024 172   UNC Asheville L 74-92 34%     1 - 6 -20.9 -5.4 -14.8
  Dec 10, 2024 115   @ Western Kentucky L 60-84 13%     1 - 7 -18.6 -11.9 -5.0
  Dec 19, 2024 324   @ Southern Indiana L 75-77 52%     1 - 8 0 - 1 -9.5 -6.6 -2.7
  Dec 21, 2024 282   @ Morehead St. L 68-74 39%     1 - 9 0 - 2 -10.2 -1.2 -9.4
  Jan 02, 2025 265   Southeast Missouri St. L 65-67 55%     1 - 10 0 - 3 -10.3 -13.6 +3.5
  Jan 04, 2025 227   Arkansas Little Rock W 95-86 46%     2 - 10 1 - 3 +3.0 +9.2 -7.6
  Jan 09, 2025 349   @ Lindenwood L 62-72 61%     2 - 11 1 - 4 -20.0 -16.5 -2.9
  Jan 11, 2025 354   @ Western Illinois W 72-52 65%     3 - 11 2 - 4 +9.2 +2.4 +9.1
  Jan 16, 2025 266   SIU Edwardsville L 80-87 2OT 56%     3 - 12 2 - 5 -15.4 -6.9 -7.5
  Jan 18, 2025 332   Eastern Illinois W 84-65 73%     4 - 12 3 - 5 +5.8 +5.1 +0.3
  Jan 21, 2025 307   Tennessee Martin W 81-80 OT 65%     5 - 12 4 - 5 -9.9 -9.6 -0.5
  Jan 23, 2025 298   Tennessee Tech W 89-77 62%     6 - 12 5 - 5 +1.9 +6.0 -4.8
  Jan 30, 2025 227   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 72-70 28%     7 - 12 6 - 5 +0.9 +3.8 -2.8
  Feb 01, 2025 265   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 87-89 OT 36%     7 - 13 6 - 6 -5.3 +3.9 -9.0
  Feb 06, 2025 354   Western Illinois W 75-66 81%    
  Feb 08, 2025 349   Lindenwood W 78-70 79%    
  Feb 13, 2025 332   @ Eastern Illinois W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 266   @ SIU Edwardsville L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 18, 2025 307   @ Tennessee Martin L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 298   @ Tennessee Tech L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 27, 2025 282   Morehead St. W 71-69 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 324   Southern Indiana W 77-72 71%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 0.8 1.6 1st
2nd 0.8 3.2 0.8 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.6 5.9 3.0 0.1 9.5 3rd
4th 0.3 5.9 9.3 0.7 16.1 4th
5th 0.3 4.9 13.3 3.3 0.0 21.8 5th
6th 0.2 4.8 14.2 6.4 0.3 25.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 7.4 4.4 0.3 14.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.4 0.1 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 1.4 5.3 13.9 23.8 26.5 19.7 7.5 1.7 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 48.6% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0
13-7 9.6% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.7% 28.3% 28.3% 15.5 0.2 0.3 1.2
13-7 7.5% 17.7% 17.7% 15.9 0.2 1.2 6.2
12-8 19.7% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 2.2 17.5
11-9 26.5% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 1.6 24.9
10-10 23.8% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.9 22.9
9-11 13.9% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 13.6
8-12 5.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.3
7-13 1.4% 1.4
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 15.9 0.4 6.5 93.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 15.5 49.0 51.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%