Tennessee
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.5 #22
Expected Predictive Rating +14.3 #36
Pace 66.7 #239
Improvement -2.0 #270

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #42 B+ A+ D+ B B+
Defense #14 A A B B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #20 1.23 #105 +6.0 #19
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #270 0.78 #146 -1.4 #250
Three Pointers 38% #257 1.13 #44 +0.3 #171
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #53 +4.9 #52
Freethrows 20.7 #30 71% #247 14.6 #67
Second Chance 44.3% #1 1.12 #84 0.50 #3
Turnovers 17.9% #269
Total Offense +7.6 #42

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #280 1.02 #32 +4.4 #48
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #194 0.66 #44 +1.2 #97
Three Pointers 45% #70 0.87 #31 +1.2 #133
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #19 +6.9 #19
Freethrows 16.9 #162 66% #7 11.2 #95
Second Chance 26.8% #53 0.85 #13 0.23 #15
Turnovers 18.4% #74
Total Defense +9.0 #14

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #49 -0.3% #136
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.3% #70 -13.2% #14
Possession Length 16.0 #55 19.1 #359
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #37 0.12 #42
Improvement -1.0 #238 -0.9 #252

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.9% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 1.6% 3.2% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 15.9% 26.4% 10.6%
Top 6 Seed 48.8% 65.7% 40.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.4% 97.5% 88.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.7% 97.2% 87.5%
Average Seed 6.5 5.7 6.9
.500 or above 98.5% 99.7% 97.9%
.500 or above in Conference 73.9% 87.6% 66.8%
Conference Champion 2.3% 5.5% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.2% 1.3%
First Four5.1% 2.2% 6.6%
First Round89.6% 96.8% 85.9%
Second Round65.3% 75.7% 60.0%
Sweet Sixteen28.2% 36.4% 24.0%
Elite Eight11.6% 14.9% 9.9%
Final Four4.8% 6.5% 3.9%
Championship Game1.8% 2.4% 1.4%
National Champion0.6% 0.8% 0.4%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 33.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 11
Quad 25 - 213 - 12
Quad 32 - 015 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 149 Mercer W 76 - 61 95% +11  1 - 0 +13 -0 D A+ F +13 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 178 Northern Kentucky W 95 - 56 96% +18  2 - 0 +35 +20 A+ A+ B+ +15 A+ C+ A
 Wed, Nov 12 350 North Florida W 99 - 66 99% +15  3 - 0 +18 +6 D+ A+ F +9 A+ C A
 Mon, Nov 17 239 Rice W 91 - 66 98% +12  4 - 0 +18 +15 B- A+ C +3 B A+ D+
 Thu, Nov 20 241 Tennessee St. W 89 - 60 98% +22  5 - 0 +22 +2 D- A+ F +17 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 115 Rutgers W 85 - 60 89% +19  6 - 0 +28 +18 A+ A+ D- +11 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 4 Houston W 76 - 73 31% -2  7 - 0 +25 +27 A- A+ A+ -2 D- A+ B+
 Wed, Nov 26 19 Kansas L 76 - 81 47% +3  7 - 1 +12 +13 A+ A- A+ -1 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 67 @Syracuse L 60 - 62 70% -2  7 - 2 +9 -6 D B- F +15 A A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 9 Illinois L 62 - 75 35% -4  7 - 3 +7 +5 D- A+ F +0 B B+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 13 Louisville W 83 - 62 55% +11  8 - 3 +36 +17 A+ A+ B- +20 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 363 Gardner-Webb W 94 - 52 100% +26  9 - 3 +20 +10 A- B B- +10 B+ A- D
 Tue, Dec 30 359 South Carolina St. W 105 - 54 100% +23  10 - 3 +33 +25 A+ A+ C+ +8 A A F
 Sat, Jan 3 20 @Arkansas L 75 - 86 36% -1  10 - 4 0 - 1 +9 +5 B+ C+ C- +5 A+ A- A+
 Tue, Jan 6 38 Texas W 85 - 71 73% +11  11 - 4 1 - 1 +24 +17 A+ A+ F +7 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 10 @Florida L 67 - 91 25% -10  11 - 5 1 - 2 -1 +2 B C+ F -1 D+ A+ D
 Tue, Jan 13 34 Texas A&M W 87 - 82 2OT 71% -3  12 - 5 2 - 2 +16 +5 F A+ D +10 A- A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 25 Kentucky L 78 - 80 64% +7  12 - 6 2 - 3 +11 +19 A+ D+ D- -8 B F C
 Sat, Jan 24 17 @Alabama L 81 - 85 34%
 Tue, Jan 27 24 @Georgia L 79 - 81 41%
 Sat, Jan 31 27 Auburn W 78 - 73 67%
 Tue, Feb 3 62 Mississippi W 76 - 65 84%
 Sat, Feb 7 25 @Kentucky L 73 - 75 41%
 Wed, Feb 11 76 @Mississippi St. W 75 - 69 71%
 Sat, Feb 14 43 LSU W 78 - 70 77%
 Wed, Feb 18 57 Oklahoma W 79 - 69 81%
 Sat, Feb 21 21 @Vanderbilt L 75 - 79 37%
 Tue, Feb 24 50 @Missouri W 75 - 72 59%
 Sat, Feb 28 17 Alabama W 84 - 82 56%
 Tue, Mar 3 69 @South Carolina W 73 - 68 70%
 Sat, Mar 7 21 Vanderbilt W 78 - 76 58%
Totals 20 - 11 10 - 8 +17 +8 B+ A+ D+ +9 A A B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.3 2.3 1st
2nd 0.2 2.3 3.0 0.8 0.1 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 5.0 1.6 0.1 8.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.8 3.1 0.2 9.9 4th
5th 0.1 3.9 6.4 0.6 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 7.5 2.6 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.2 4.9 5.8 0.3 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.8 6.7 1.6 0.0 10.1 8th
9th 0.4 4.6 3.8 0.1 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.9 4.4 0.7 0.0 7.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 3.1 1.8 0.1 5.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.9 0.2 3.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.7 7.8 13.0 17.5 19.7 17.4 11.3 5.7 1.8 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 80.3% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 50.7% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 15.4% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.3% 2.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.4% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.8% 100.0% 21.5% 78.5% 2.9 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 100.0%
13-5 5.7% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 3.7 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.3% 100.0% 16.6% 83.4% 4.6 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.4 3.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 17.4% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 5.5 0.0 0.8 2.4 5.6 5.6 2.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-8 19.7% 99.9% 6.0% 93.9% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.4 6.5 6.2 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 17.5% 98.9% 4.5% 94.4% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 5.7 4.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.2 98.9%
8-10 13.0% 90.7% 3.1% 87.6% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.3 3.1 3.2 1.3 0.0 1.2 90.4%
7-11 7.8% 65.8% 1.3% 64.5% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.7 0.0 2.7 65.4%
6-12 3.7% 21.6% 0.8% 20.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 2.9 21.0%
5-13 1.2% 2.8% 0.4% 2.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 2.4%
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 91.4% 7.7% 83.7% 6.5 8.6 90.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 2.4 19.0 28.6 42.9 9.5