Mississippi St.
Southeastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +7.1 79
Expected Predictive Rating +6.8 82
Pace 70.8 120
Improvement +1.5 124

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #114 C+ C+ B- D+ C-
Defense B #56 A- B D- B A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 235 64% 63 +1.0 140
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 116 42% 58 +2.1 73
Three Pointers 40% 204 32% 250 -1.5 235
1st FG Attempt 1.05 124 +1.6 124
Second Chance 32.4% 127 1.01 198 0.33 141
Turnovers 15.5% 93
Freethrows 0.29 243 69% 284 0.20 265
Total Offense +2.2 114

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 350 53% 62 +6.2 19
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 12 38% 195 -3.5 359
Three Pointers 40% 204 28% 7 +4.1 32
1st FG Attempt 0.89 19 +6.7 19
Second Chance 25.5% 28 1.00 131 0.25 49
Turnovers 14.0% 332
Freethrows 0.26 43 74% 258 0.19 56
Total Defense +4.9 56

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.5 256 -1.7 9
Shot Type Accuracy +2.1 102 -5.1 33
Possession Length 16.3 80 17.5 222
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 113 0.14 68
Improvement -1.3 #267 +2.9 #43

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 11.3 11.2 11.5
.500 or above 3% 8% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 1% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 16% 4% 23%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Mississippi (Away) - 33.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 72 - 12
Quad 23 - 55 - 17
Quad 34 - 29 - 19
Quad 45 - 013 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 344 North Alabama W 86 - 62 97% +5  80% 1 - 0 B +9 C +0 C- F A A- +8 A- C C
 Mon, Nov 10 8 Iowa St. L 80 - 96 11% -11  16% 1 - 1 C+ +5 A- +10 A A+ F D+ -4 B D+ D-
 Sat, Nov 15 270 SE Louisiana W 75 - 68 93% +5  69% 2 - 1 C- -2 D -5 C- C- D B- +3 B+ A- F+
 Thu, Nov 20 101 Kansas St. L 77 - 98 58% -8  12% 2 - 2 F+ -16 C- -2 C+ F C F -12 F A F
 Fri, Nov 21 49 New Mexico L 78 - 80 35% -2  24% 2 - 3 B +9 B +6 B D A+ B- +4 A- C C-
 Mon, Nov 24 225 New Orleans W 81 - 78 OT 89% -4  24% 3 - 3 C- -3 D- -8 D B+ D- B- +4 A- B C
 Fri, Nov 28 37 SMU L 81 - 87 OT 35% +1  53% 3 - 4 B- +5 D+ -2 D C- A+ A- +8 A+ F C-
 Wed, Dec 3 131 @Georgia Tech W 85 - 73 58% +8  84% 4 - 4 A- +17 B+ +8 B- A+ D+ A- +9 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 107 San Francisco L 62 - 65 61% -5  1% 4 - 5 C +1 D+ -4 D C A B +5 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 13 110 Utah W 82 - 74 62% -6  17% 5 - 5 B+ +12 B +7 A+ F A- B +5 C+ A+ A
 Tue, Dec 16 207 LIU Brooklyn W 87 - 83 88% +3  74% 6 - 5 C- -2 B+ +8 C+ A- A+ F+ -10 C- C+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 86 Memphis W 71 - 66 64% +4  86% 7 - 5 B +8 C +1 B- D+ C B+ +7 A+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 316 Alabama St. W 94 - 56 96% +18  96% 8 - 5 A+ +25 A+ +15 B A+ B A +11 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 30 @Texas W 101 - 98 OT 16% +1  65% 9 - 5 1 - 0 A +21 A+ +15 B A+ B B +5 A- B D-
 Wed, Jan 7 54 Oklahoma W 72 - 53 50% +5  71% 10 - 5 2 - 0 A+ +26 C+ +2 F+ A+ B+ A+ +25 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 24 @Kentucky L 68 - 92 13% -4  33% 10 - 6 2 - 1 C- -5 C+ +3 B+ B+ F D- -8 C- F C-
 Tue, Jan 13 17 Alabama L 82 - 97 22% -5  41% 10 - 7 2 - 2 C +0 C+ +3 D+ C+ A+ C -1 A- B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 65 Mississippi L 67 - 68 56% +2  58% 10 - 8 2 - 3 C+ +4 D -5 F+ C A+ A- +10 A A F
 Wed, Jan 21 31 @Texas A&M L 68 - 88 16% -10  13% 10 - 9 2 - 4 C- -2 C- -1 B F B- C -2 A B+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 14 Vanderbilt L 56 - 88 21% -20  0% 10 - 10 2 - 5 F+ -16 F -16 F+ D D- C+ +2 C+ B C-
 Wed, Jan 28 57 @LSU W 80 - 66 29% +18  99% 11 - 10 3 - 5 A+ +27 A +12 A+ A- F A+ +15 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 48 @Missouri L 79 - 84 25% -8  3% 11 - 11 3 - 6 B +9 B- +5 B+ F+ D+ B +4 B A+ F+
 Sat, Feb 7 19 Arkansas L 68 - 88 23% -12  8% 11 - 12 3 - 7 D+ -5 D+ -3 B- F+ B C- -2 C A D
 Wed, Feb 11 18 Tennessee L 64 - 73 22% -9  0% 11 - 13 3 - 8 B- +6 D+ -3 B- D B A- +9 A+ B+ D
 Sat, Feb 14 65 @Mississippi L 69 - 73 33%
 Wed, Feb 18 28 Auburn L 75 - 80 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 90 @South Carolina L 72 - 73 45%
 Wed, Feb 25 17 @Alabama L 78 - 92 9%
 Sat, Feb 28 48 Missouri L 75 - 76 46%
 Tue, Mar 3 4 @Florida L 66 - 85 3%
 Sat, Mar 7 36 Georgia L 80 - 84 35%
Totals 13 - 18 5 - 13 +7 C+ +2 C+ C+ B- B +5 A- B D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B B D+ B- 36% 23% 40% C- C+ C+ C- C+ B- C- D+ D+ B B C A B+ 30% 29% 40% A A- B+ C+ B D- B D+ B
1.12 64% 42% 32% +2 0 1.05 32% 1.0 .33 16% .29 69% .20 1.02 53% 38% 28% -5 -2 0.89 26% 1.0 .25 14% .26 74% .21
Nov
5		 North Alabama C A- F C+ C 40% 24% 36% D C- A- F F A A F B A- A+ C D+ B- 26% 43% 31% A+ A- B+ F C C A A+ A+
1.20 68% 31% 35% +3 0 1.07 43% 0.7 .30 10% .37 67% .25 0.87 29% 35% 35% -8 -4 0.78 24% 1.3 .31 18% .20 58% .12
Nov
10		 Iowa St. A- C- A+ B A 33% 16% 51% B+ A A+ B A+ F B A B+ D+ C- F A+ A- 51% 15% 35% D- B C- D+ D+ D- D F F+
1.06 56% 50% 36% +3 0 1.08 48% 1.1 .55 34% .28 79% .22 1.27 64% 63% 26% +3 +2 1.11 41% 1.1 .46 12% .37 76% .28
Nov
15		 SE Louisiana D A D C- C 27% 31% 41% F+ C- D+ C+ C- D B- D- C B- C- C- A+ B+ 29% 33% 38% A- B+ B A A- F+ B F D
1.02 71% 31% 33% +1 -2 1.00 28% 1.1 .31 22% .40 70% .28 0.92 59% 37% 18% -9 -2 0.79 23% 0.7 .16 14% .28 89% .25
Nov
20		 Kansas St. C- B- A- D- C+ 33% 21% 46% C- C+ F+ F F C A A A+ F F A+ F F 31% 27% 42% A+ F C+ A+ A F A F B
1.03 59% 45% 29% -1 0 0.98 26% 0.9 .23 19% .38 78% .29 1.31 84% 24% 50% +14 -1 1.27 32% 0.8 .24 11% .16 91% .15
Nov
21		 New Mexico B A- B C B+ 25% 27% 47% D+ B D- C D A+ F F F B- B+ A C- A- 38% 13% 48% C+ A- C- C+ C C- F C F
1.08 67% 44% 32% +3 -2 1.03 20% 1.0 .20 10% .20 54% .11 1.10 50% 29% 36% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.0 .32 14% .40 76% .30
Nov
24		 New Orleans D- F A+ F D 30% 22% 48% D- D C- A+ B+ D- A F D+ B- A C+ C- B 25% 39% 36% A+ A- C- A- B C A F B-
1.05 38% 67% 27% -5 -1 0.91 34% 1.3 .45 18% .46 52% .24 1.01 43% 36% 35% -4 -3 0.88 36% 0.9 .31 19% .27 94% .26
Nov
28		 SMU D+ C- B- F D 29% 29% 43% D+ D F A+ C- A+ A A- A A- B+ D A+ A+ 21% 40% 39% A+ A+ A- F F C- D A+ C+
1.01 56% 39% 26% -6 -2 0.87 20% 1.2 .24 9% .34 76% .26 1.09 54% 48% 25% -2 -4 0.90 31% 1.6 .49 14% .33 65% .22
Dec
3		 Georgia Tech B+ D A+ F B- 35% 23% 42% C B- C- A+ A+ D+ A- A- A A- A+ D+ C A+ 35% 29% 37% B+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F C+ B B-
1.13 50% 67% 27% 0 -1 1.00 26% 1.8 .47 17% .35 77% .27 0.97 32% 39% 35% -8 -1 0.83 31% 0.6 .20 7% .29 65% .19
Dec
7		 San Francisco D+ A- D D- C- 22% 35% 44% F D C+ D C A F F F B F A+ A+ A+ 25% 24% 51% A A+ B F F F A+ A+ A+
1.00 67% 32% 29% -3 -3 0.89 29% 0.9 .27 8% .14 25% .04 1.05 85% 25% 15% -10 -1 0.78 29% 1.7 .50 10% .18 60% .11
Dec
13		 Utah B B C- A+ A+ 48% 14% 38% B+ A+ D F F A- F D+ F B F B+ C C 36% 21% 43% B+ C+ B+ A+ A+ A F C- F
1.17 63% 38% 48% +10 +2 1.25 24% 0.6 .15 11% .15 67% .10 1.06 71% 30% 35% +4 0 1.09 25% 0.6 .16 20% .43 75% .32
Dec
16		 LIU Brooklyn B+ C+ C- B B- 40% 25% 35% D- C+ D+ A+ A- A+ A+ A A+ F+ A F C- D 25% 32% 43% A+ C- A+ F C+ F A+ F A
1.21 59% 36% 37% +1 -1 1.04 31% 1.5 .47 13% .48 77% .37 1.16 47% 58% 35% +4 -2 1.05 22% 1.5 .32 8% .17 73% .12
Dec
20		 Memphis C B+ C- F+ B- 39% 20% 41% B- B- C- D+ D+ C A+ D+ A B+ A A+ A A+ 25% 24% 51% B+ A+ D- D- F A+ C- B- C
1.01 67% 33% 26% -2 0 0.98 30% 0.8 .24 21% .45 68% .31 0.94 46% 25% 27% -11 -1 0.76 41% 1.3 .54 26% .31 69% .21
Dec
29		 Alabama St. A+ B- A+ B B+ 41% 20% 39% D+ B A+ C+ A+ B F D- F A A A A+ A+ 27% 36% 36% A+ A+ A A+ A+ D+ F C+ F
1.35 64% 55% 38% +8 0 1.19 49% 1.2 .57 16% .24 71% .17 0.81 42% 25% 25% -14 -3 0.68 22% 0.3 .07 17% .59 68% .40
Jan
3		 Texas A+ B+ C- C B 32% 20% 48% C+ B A+ A- A+ B A+ B- A+ B F D+ A+ B 28% 32% 40% A+ A- A+ F B D- F B- F
1.23 63% 33% 34% +1 0 1.03 41% 1.1 .46 13% .43 74% .32 1.19 81% 44% 22% +1 -2 1.00 30% 1.4 .43 12% .55 73% .40
Jan
7		 Oklahoma C+ B- B F D- 33% 37% 30% F+ F+ A+ B A+ B+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 22% 39% 39% A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ F A+ F
1.10 60% 41% 14% -7 -3 0.83 44% 1.1 .49 14% .49 71% .35 0.81 40% 39% 17% -14 -4 0.67 31% 0.8 .24 20% .48 64% .30
Jan
10		 Kentucky C+ A+ B F B+ 40% 24% 36% B- B+ B- A B+ F D+ B+ C D- D+ B- F+ D+ 43% 21% 36% C+ C- F+ F F C- A+ A A+
0.99 80% 42% 17% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.0 .29 22% .26 79% .21 1.34 67% 33% 40% +6 0 1.14 42% 1.6 .67 13% .23 64% .15
Jan
13		 Alabama C+ A F D+ C- 25% 36% 39% F+ D+ C+ C C+ A+ A- C+ B+ C A+ C+ D A- 33% 12% 55% B- A- A F B- F F D- F
1.07 65% 21% 31% -6 -3 0.84 29% 0.9 .27 5% .34 68% .23 1.26 47% 43% 38% 0 +1 1.03 26% 1.4 .37 7% .46 82% .38
Jan
17		 Mississippi D B F F F 38% 17% 45% B+ F+ C+ D+ C A+ B+ F C A- C+ F A+ B+ 16% 59% 25% A+ A B+ A+ A F A+ D- A+
0.96 60% 22% 17% -14 0 0.75 30% 1.0 .30 11% .37 61% .23 0.97 60% 54% 6% -1 -7 0.87 26% 0.8 .21 7% .15 80% .12
Jan
21		 Texas A&M C- B- A+ D- B+ 36% 24% 40% C- B C F F B- C- D- D+ C A- A+ D+ A+ 45% 14% 41% B- A B+ B- B+ F D+ F F
0.97 61% 58% 30% +4 -1 1.08 30% 0.5 .14 19% .26 67% .17 1.25 50% 25% 38% -3 +1 0.98 28% 0.9 .26 4% .36 96% .34
Jan
24		 Vanderbilt F D C+ F F+ 26% 25% 49% C- F+ D D+ D D- D F F+ C+ F D- A+ C+ 40% 22% 38% B- C+ A+ F B C- A+ F A+
0.76 50% 38% 19% -13 -1 0.74 23% 0.9 .20 23% .30 65% .19 1.19 79% 46% 26% +6 0 1.13 17% 2.0 .33 12% .17 91% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 LSU A A F A+ A+ 38% 19% 43% C+ A+ A+ C- A- F A B A A+ B+ F A+ A+ 44% 22% 34% C+ A+ A+ C- A+ F C- A+ A
1.18 67% 22% 50% +11 0 1.23 45% 0.8 .38 24% .39 70% .27 0.97 55% 55% 18% -6 0 0.90 21% 1.3 .26 10% .38 52% .20
Jan
31		 Missouri B- F A+ A A 26% 33% 41% D- B+ B+ F F+ D+ C+ F C- B C- C- C- C+ 22% 27% 51% A+ B B+ A+ A+ F+ F F F
1.08 43% 56% 41% +6 -3 1.09 35% 0.4 .14 19% .30 67% .20 1.15 64% 38% 36% +3 -2 1.04 32% 0.7 .22 14% .52 76% .40
Feb
7		 Arkansas D+ B- A+ F B- 49% 25% 25% C+ B- D+ F F+ B C D C- C- D+ D D- C 41% 26% 33% B C B A+ A D A+ A A+
0.97 59% 50% 14% -4 0 0.95 25% 1.0 .25 16% .24 64% .15 1.25 68% 44% 40% +9 -1 1.18 31% 1.0 .31 10% .19 67% .13
Feb
11		 Tennessee D+ C+ C- B B+ 25% 38% 36% F B- D- D+ D B F+ F F A- D+ A A+ A 39% 39% 22% A+ A+ A+ D B+ D A- F C+
0.92 57% 33% 35% -1 -3 0.93 18% 0.9 .15 16% .22 54% .12 1.04 65% 30% 27% -3 -2 0.92 35% 1.2 .41 16% .31 83% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 1.4 3.5 0.8 5.6 11th
12th 0.3 7.8 15.1 4.6 0.2 28.0 12th
13th 0.1 5.7 16.4 5.1 0.1 27.4 13th
14th 1.5 12.8 6.8 0.5 21.6 14th
15th 4.2 6.0 0.5 0.0 10.7 15th
16th 3.7 0.6 4.4 16th
Total 9.6 25.5 31.5 22.1 8.9 2.2 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.2% 19.0% 19.0% 11.0 0.0 0.2 19.0%
8-10 2.2% 2.8% 2.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.8%
7-11 8.9% 0.2% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 8.9 0.2%
6-12 22.1% 22.1
5-13 31.5% 31.5
4-14 25.5% 25.5
3-15 9.6% 9.6
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 11.3 99.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 9.5%