North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#155
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#168
Pace68.0#191
Improvement+0.6#162

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#120
First Shot+2.1#112
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#194
Layup/Dunks+3.2#75
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#67
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#182
Freethrows-3.0#342
Improvement+1.6#93

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#215
First Shot-2.5#259
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#92
Layups/Dunks-2.9#288
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#180
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#240
Freethrows+1.3#94
Improvement-1.0#249
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.2% 20.3% 13.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 25.5% 32.3% 11.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round18.2% 20.2% 13.9%
Second Round0.9% 1.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Away) - 68.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 64 - 9
Quad 416 - 220 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 277   @ Air Force W 73-57 67%     1 - 0 +12.1 +7.1 +6.8
  Nov 11, 2024 307   Tennessee Martin W 87-69 86%     2 - 0 +7.1 +7.3 -0.4
  Nov 15, 2024 109   Samford L 96-97 OT 47%     2 - 1 +0.4 +2.4 -1.8
  Nov 18, 2024 1   @ Auburn L 69-102 2%     2 - 2 -7.3 +1.9 -7.4
  Nov 23, 2024 328   Louisiana Monroe W 74-62 85%     3 - 2 +1.5 +4.2 -1.6
  Nov 24, 2024 293   @ Northwestern St. L 58-71 69%     3 - 3 -17.6 -8.9 -10.2
  Dec 01, 2024 151   @ Wofford L 54-74 40%     3 - 4 -16.7 -17.7 +0.2
  Dec 04, 2024 298   Tennessee Tech W 82-59 84%     4 - 4 +12.9 +9.1 +5.3
  Dec 11, 2024 150   @ East Carolina W 74-67 39%     5 - 4 +10.3 +3.1 +7.3
  Dec 19, 2024 285   Charleston Southern W 86-69 82%     6 - 4 +7.7 +12.9 -4.5
  Dec 22, 2024 136   @ Loyola Marymount L 69-85 37%     6 - 5 -12.0 +1.3 -13.6
  Jan 02, 2025 356   Bellarmine W 82-66 93%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +0.0 +6.5 -4.8
  Jan 04, 2025 231   Eastern Kentucky W 88-67 75%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +14.6 +9.6 +5.1
  Jan 09, 2025 164   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 70-75 42%     8 - 6 2 - 1 -2.4 +0.8 -3.4
  Jan 11, 2025 334   @ Stetson W 92-64 81%     9 - 6 3 - 1 +19.3 +21.8 +0.2
  Jan 16, 2025 179   @ Jacksonville L 60-64 46%     9 - 7 3 - 2 -2.4 -9.5 +7.1
  Jan 18, 2025 245   @ North Florida W 90-84 62%     10 - 7 4 - 2 +3.4 +11.2 -7.8
  Jan 23, 2025 110   Lipscomb W 74-64 48%     11 - 7 5 - 2 +11.0 +12.7 -0.1
  Jan 25, 2025 296   Austin Peay W 88-84 OT 84%     12 - 7 6 - 2 -5.9 +2.0 -8.4
  Jan 29, 2025 213   @ Queens L 67-75 54%     12 - 8 6 - 3 -8.4 -5.4 -3.2
  Feb 01, 2025 341   Central Arkansas W 94-65 91%     13 - 8 7 - 3 +14.7 +24.0 -6.4
  Feb 05, 2025 296   @ Austin Peay W 73-67 68%    
  Feb 08, 2025 345   @ West Georgia W 79-69 81%    
  Feb 13, 2025 245   North Florida W 88-80 79%    
  Feb 15, 2025 179   Jacksonville W 74-70 67%    
  Feb 18, 2025 345   West Georgia W 81-66 92%    
  Feb 20, 2025 110   @ Lipscomb L 71-76 29%    
  Feb 24, 2025 341   @ Central Arkansas W 78-68 82%    
  Feb 26, 2025 213   Queens W 80-74 72%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 5.0 14.9 5.5 25.5 1st
2nd 0.0 2.5 14.8 7.2 0.3 24.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 9.7 10.0 0.4 20.9 3rd
4th 0.2 4.0 9.6 1.1 14.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 5.9 2.5 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.4 1.5 0.8 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.7 11.5 24.4 30.9 22.5 5.8 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 94.7% 5.5    4.5 1.0
14-4 66.1% 14.9    4.4 7.4 2.9 0.2
13-5 16.1% 5.0    0.2 1.3 2.0 1.1 0.3
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.5% 25.5 9.2 9.7 4.9 1.3 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 5.8% 32.1% 32.1% 12.7 0.7 1.0 0.2 4.0
14-4 22.5% 24.6% 24.6% 13.7 0.1 1.9 3.0 0.6 17.0
13-5 30.9% 18.0% 18.0% 14.2 0.0 0.7 3.1 1.8 0.0 25.4
12-6 24.4% 15.0% 15.0% 14.4 0.2 1.8 1.5 0.1 20.7
11-7 11.5% 11.3% 11.3% 14.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 10.2
10-8 3.7% 8.7% 8.7% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.4
9-9 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.1
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.2% 18.2% 0.0% 14.0 0.8 3.9 8.6 4.7 0.3 81.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 12.7 35.8 55.6 8.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9%