East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#115
Expected Predictive Rating+3.2#131
Pace69.7#182
Improvement+3.8#11

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#126
First Shot+3.4#87
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#290
Layup/Dunks+5.4#31
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#128
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#261
Freethrows-0.5#209
Improvement+2.4#20

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#119
First Shot-0.3#181
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#67
Layups/Dunks+3.6#60
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#322
Freethrows-0.6#229
Improvement+1.5#57
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.5% 40.9% 35.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 99.4% 99.8% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.2% 98.8% 97.4%
Conference Champion 55.7% 59.9% 50.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round38.5% 40.9% 35.1%
Second Round3.8% 4.3% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Away) - 58.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 36 - 36 - 6
Quad 417 - 323 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 257 @Presbyterian L 64-68 71%     0 - 1 -6.4 -2.4 -4.3
  Wed, Nov 12 181 Northern Kentucky W 75-63 77%     1 - 1 +7.5 -2.8 +9.9
  Sat, Nov 15 200 @North Alabama W 78-74 61%     2 - 1 +4.6 +7.4 -2.8
  Fri, Nov 21 327 Morehead St. W 77-62 92%     3 - 1 +2.5 +4.7 -1.0
  Sun, Nov 23 357 Louisiana Monroe W 97-55 96%     4 - 1 +24.9 +17.6 +7.8
  Sat, Nov 29 273 Central Arkansas W 80-57 88%     5 - 1 +13.9 +2.3 +11.0
  Tue, Dec 2 67 @Dayton L 71-88 22%     5 - 2 -5.5 +1.0 -5.6
  Fri, Dec 5 165 South Alabama W 91-65 75%     6 - 2 +22.3 +18.1 +4.8
  Fri, Dec 12 182 @Austin Peay W 73-71 58%    
  Tue, Dec 16 21 @North Carolina L 69-84 8%    
  Sat, Dec 20 238 Jacksonville St. W 73-62 84%    
  Wed, Dec 31 363 @The Citadel W 80-65 92%    
  Sat, Jan 3 191 Mercer W 82-74 78%    
  Wed, Jan 7 337 VMI W 83-66 94%    
  Sat, Jan 10 293 UNC Greensboro W 80-66 90%    
  Wed, Jan 14 281 @Western Carolina W 78-71 73%    
  Sat, Jan 17 228 @Samford W 76-72 66%    
  Wed, Jan 21 209 @Chattanooga W 74-71 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 363 The Citadel W 83-62 97%    
  Thu, Jan 29 281 Western Carolina W 81-68 87%    
  Sat, Jan 31 208 @Wofford W 76-73 62%    
  Wed, Feb 4 153 Furman W 75-69 71%    
  Sat, Feb 7 337 @VMI W 80-69 84%    
  Wed, Feb 11 209 Chattanooga W 77-68 79%    
  Sat, Feb 14 228 Samford W 79-69 83%    
  Wed, Feb 18 153 @Furman W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Feb 21 293 @UNC Greensboro W 77-69 75%    
  Wed, Feb 25 208 Wofford W 79-70 79%    
  Sat, Feb 28 191 @Mercer W 79-77 59%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.4 10.8 15.1 13.6 8.4 2.7 55.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.8 7.6 5.7 2.3 0.3 21.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.1 4.2 7.4 11.0 14.3 16.9 17.3 13.9 8.4 2.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.7    2.7
17-1 100.0% 8.4    8.3 0.1
16-2 97.6% 13.6    12.5 1.0
15-3 86.8% 15.1    11.6 3.4 0.1
14-4 63.8% 10.8    6.1 4.1 0.7 0.0
13-5 31.1% 4.4    1.3 2.2 0.8 0.1
12-6 6.6% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 55.7% 55.7 42.6 11.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.7% 65.1% 65.1% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.9
17-1 8.4% 57.1% 57.1% 12.6 0.3 1.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 3.6
16-2 13.9% 54.5% 54.5% 13.0 0.1 1.9 3.7 1.7 0.1 6.3
15-3 17.3% 45.2% 45.2% 13.3 0.0 0.9 3.7 2.8 0.4 9.5
14-4 16.9% 37.3% 37.3% 13.7 0.3 2.3 2.9 0.8 0.0 10.6
13-5 14.3% 32.5% 32.5% 14.0 0.1 0.9 2.4 1.2 0.1 9.6
12-6 11.0% 27.1% 27.1% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.1 8.0
11-7 7.4% 21.3% 21.3% 14.6 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 5.8
10-8 4.2% 15.4% 15.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 3.5
9-9 2.1% 12.4% 12.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.9
8-10 1.1% 6.3% 6.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
7-11 0.3% 7.8% 7.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.2% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 38.5% 38.5% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.9 13.5 12.5 4.9 0.6 61.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 9.8 14.8 59.0 3.3