East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +2.0 126
Expected Predictive Rating +0.4 155
Pace 65.4 267
Improvement -0.7 212

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #129 C C B- B- C+
Defense C #150 D+ B- B C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 46 60% 129 +3.9 53
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 192 41% 85 +0.3 165
Three Pointers 36% 277 32% 262 -3.5 302
1st FG Attempt 1.03 150 +0.7 151
Second Chance 26.8% 289 1.16 40 0.31 178
Turnovers 15.6% 94
Freethrows 0.32 141 77% 35 0.25 93
Total Offense +1.5 129

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 202 61% 267 -0.8 203
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 339 34% 42 +2.8 8
Three Pointers 47% 31 36% 261 -4.4 342
1st FG Attempt 1.07 261 -2.5 262
Second Chance 29.6% 145 0.94 64 0.28 85
Turnovers 19.5% 45
Freethrows 0.29 138 74% 291 0.21 159
Total Defense +0.5 150

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.5 118 +0.7 292
Shot Type Accuracy +0.2 168 +1.7 243
Possession Length 18.3 282 17.1 148
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 213 0.20 256
Improvement +0.4 #157 -1.0 #252

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35% 37% 30%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 93% 96% 84%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round35% 37% 30%
Second Round2% 2% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Samford (Home) - 75.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 24 - 5
Quad 418 - 522 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 272 @Presbyterian L 64 - 68 70% -2  33% 0 - 1 D+ -7 D- -7 F A F+ C -0 C+ F A
 Wed, Nov 12 201 Northern Kentucky W 75 - 63 76% +8  98% 1 - 1 B- +6 D -5 A F F A +12 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 344 @North Alabama W 78 - 74 85% -8  8% 2 - 1 D+ -5 C- -1 B F A D+ -4 D F B
 Fri, Nov 21 292 Morehead St. W 77 - 62 88% +2  47% 3 - 1 C+ +4 C +1 F+ B B- B +5 D A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 356 Louisiana Monroe W 97 - 55 96% +20  97% 4 - 1 A+ +24 A +14 A A B- A +11 A+ C C+
 Sat, Nov 29 190 Central Arkansas W 80 - 57 75% +10  84% 5 - 1 A +18 C +0 A F A+ A+ +17 A+ B- B-
 Tue, Dec 2 97 @Dayton L 71 - 88 27% -10  17% 5 - 2 D -9 C- -2 B C+ F D -6 F C+ B+
 Fri, Dec 5 191 South Alabama W 91 - 65 75% +5  53% 6 - 2 A +21 A+ +17 C A+ A+ B +4 F+ A+ B
 Fri, Dec 12 152 @Austin Peay L 75 - 76 46% -6  1% 6 - 3 C+ +2 C+ +2 C+ D+ B- C -0 D- A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 26 @North Carolina L 58 - 77 7% -10  3% 6 - 4 C -1 C- -1 D+ B- B+ C- -2 C- C- C-
 Sat, Dec 20 184 Jacksonville St. L 75 - 81 73% -1  45% 6 - 5 D -11 B+ +9 A+ D+ D+ F -20 F C- B-
 Tue, Dec 30 347 @The Citadel W 74 - 49 85% +13  88% 7 - 5 1 - 0 A- +16 C+ +2 C- B- D- A+ +17 A D A+
 Sat, Jan 3 171 Mercer W 77 - 71 71% +1  50% 8 - 5 2 - 0 C+ +2 C+ +2 F A+ C C+ +0 D A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 360 VMI W 81 - 67 96% +10  96% 9 - 5 3 - 0 C- -5 C- -1 B- D B- C- -3 C- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 302 UNC Greensboro W 86 - 60 89% +10  88% 10 - 5 4 - 0 A- +15 C +0 A- D- B A+ +14 A+ D+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 263 @Western Carolina L 68 - 72 68% +0  44% 10 - 6 4 - 1 D+ -7 D+ -3 D F A+ D+ -4 F C A
 Sat, Jan 17 194 @Samford W 76 - 75 55% +5  96% 11 - 6 5 - 1 C+ +2 A +12 A- C B+ F+ -10 F C+ D-
 Wed, Jan 21 282 @Chattanooga W 67 - 66 72% +2  72% 12 - 6 6 - 1 C- -3 D- -7 F B+ C- B +5 D- A A
 Fri, Jan 23 347 The Citadel W 84 - 55 94% +18  89% 13 - 6 7 - 1 B+ +14 B+ +8 B+ B+ B- A- +8 C A+ D-
 Thu, Jan 29 263 Western Carolina L 88 - 90 84% -9  0% 13 - 7 7 - 2 D -11 B+ +8 C+ C A+ F -19 F F D+
 Sun, Feb 1 212 @Wofford W 86 - 72 57% +5  90% 14 - 7 8 - 2 B+ +14 A+ +15 D- A+ A+ C +0 C- D- C
 Wed, Feb 4 176 Furman W 75 - 71 OT 72% -5  10% 15 - 7 9 - 2 C -0 D -4 C+ F B B- +4 F B+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 360 @VMI W 87 - 70 91% +10  91% 16 - 7 10 - 2 C+ +4 C+ +3 A- A- F C+ +1 D- C- C
 Wed, Feb 11 282 Chattanooga W 73 - 61 87% +4  82% 17 - 7 11 - 2 C+ +2 D+ -3 F D- A+ B +6 A- D+ C-
 Sat, Feb 14 194 Samford W 78 - 71 75%
 Wed, Feb 18 176 @Furman L 70 - 71 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 302 @UNC Greensboro W 78 - 71 75%
 Wed, Feb 25 212 Wofford W 79 - 71 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 171 @Mercer L 76 - 77 48%
Totals 20 - 9 14 - 4 +2 C+ +1 C C B- C +1 D+ B- B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C+ B- D+ C 44% 20% 36% C+ C D+ B+ C B- C+ B+ B- C D+ B D+ C- 38% 15% 47% D D+ C+ B B- B C+ D+ C+
1.11 60% 41% 32% 0 0 1.03 27% 1.2 .31 16% .32 77% .25 1.08 61% 34% 36% +2 +1 1.07 30% 0.9 .28 19% .29 74% .24
Nov
8		 Presbyterian D- D- A F F 38% 17% 45% C- F B+ A A F+ A A A+ C B+ A+ D- B- 45% 15% 40% F C+ D- F F A F D- F
0.99 50% 50% 14% -14 0 0.74 36% 1.2 .44 19% .40 76% .30 1.05 50% 17% 38% -5 +1 0.95 37% 1.3 .47 25% .53 73% .39
Nov
12		 Northern Kentucky D B A+ A+ A 67% 12% 21% A+ A F F F F A+ C+ A+ A B- A- A- B+ 38% 13% 49% C- B+ D A+ A+ A+ B- C+ B-
1.04 64% 60% 44% +10 +3 1.29 13% 0.7 .09 25% .50 70% .35 0.87 55% 29% 27% -8 +1 0.89 34% 0.4 .14 25% .26 71% .18
Nov
15		 North Alabama C- A+ A C B+ 35% 18% 47% D+ B F F F A D F F D+ C+ A+ F+ D 41% 13% 46% D+ D D F F B F F F
1.14 74% 50% 35% +8 0 1.18 22% 0.6 .14 10% .23 57% .13 1.08 53% 17% 38% -2 +1 1.00 33% 1.4 .45 20% .39 81% .31
Nov
21		 Morehead St. C C+ A F F 56% 13% 31% B+ F+ B C B B- A+ B+ A+ B F+ C D+ F+ 31% 33% 36% B+ D C- A+ A+ A+ F B- F
1.18 60% 50% 14% -6 +2 0.93 42% 0.9 .39 14% .59 76% .45 0.95 67% 38% 36% +4 -2 1.05 35% 0.5 .16 28% .51 71% .36
Nov
23		 Louisiana Monroe A A+ A A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% C A B- A A B- F A+ D A C A+ A+ A+ 31% 20% 49% C+ A+ B- D- C C+ A- F+ B
1.40 76% 50% 43% +16 +1 1.34 39% 1.4 .54 14% .17 80% .14 0.79 53% 20% 21% -15 -1 0.71 21% 1.1 .23 19% .25 79% .20
Nov
29		 Central Arkansas C A C+ A- A 35% 9% 56% B- A F D- F A+ D+ F F A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 17% 13% 70% B A+ A+ F B- B- A+ F A+
1.12 74% 40% 40% +11 +1 1.26 13% 1.0 .13 14% .26 50% .13 0.79 44% 14% 29% -11 -1 0.80 13% 1.8 .24 18% .14 75% .10
Dec
2		 Dayton C- B B- B- B 37% 24% 39% C B B+ D+ C+ F C- A+ C+ D F F B- F 42% 16% 42% C+ F F+ A+ C+ B+ F D- F
0.96 61% 42% 37% +4 -1 1.08 35% 0.9 .32 30% .29 80% .23 1.19 89% 43% 32% +13 +1 1.29 33% 0.9 .29 20% .59 80% .48
Dec
5		 South Alabama A+ C- F C- C- 36% 7% 57% B C B+ A+ A+ A+ D- B D B B+ A+ F D- 46% 8% 46% F+ F+ A- A+ A+ B B A B+
1.33 59% 25% 31% -3 +2 1.00 39% 1.7 .66 12% .15 78% .12 0.95 48% 25% 43% +1 +2 1.08 17% 0.5 .08 16% .28 56% .16
Dec
12		 Austin Peay C+ B- B+ C- C+ 41% 16% 43% B- C+ D D+ D+ B- D- A+ C- C C+ F D+ D 39% 12% 49% D- D- D A+ A+ C- C F D-
1.07 65% 44% 33% +4 +1 1.11 26% 0.7 .18 17% .24 79% .19 1.09 55% 50% 36% +2 +1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 16% .29 88% .25
Dec
16		 North Carolina C- C F F+ D 28% 26% 46% C D+ F+ A+ B- B+ A C- A C- F B+ C+ C 39% 7% 55% F+ C- B+ F C- C- F+ B D
0.95 54% 25% 29% -8 -1 0.83 18% 1.5 .26 12% .30 69% .20 1.27 76% 33% 33% +6 +2 1.18 29% 1.4 .42 12% .43 65% .28
Dec
20		 Jacksonville St. B+ D+ A A+ A+ 39% 21% 39% C- A+ F+ A- D+ D+ A+ B- A+ F D F F F 45% 5% 50% D F F A+ C- B- F C+ F
1.21 53% 50% 53% +12 0 1.26 21% 1.2 .25 18% .57 79% .45 1.31 61% 50% 55% +18 +2 1.43 42% 0.7 .31 19% .54 67% .36
Dec
30		 The Citadel C+ C- D- B D+ 51% 13% 36% B C- C+ C+ B- D- A- A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A 24% 11% 64% C- A D D D A+ C- A- C+
1.17 61% 33% 38% +3 +2 1.11 35% 1.1 .38 17% .36 84% .31 0.78 64% 0% 24% -12 0 0.78 31% 1.0 .31 27% .28 62% .17
Jan
3		 Mercer C+ F A+ F F 58% 7% 35% A+ F A+ A- A+ C A+ A+ A+ C+ F A- C+ D+ 38% 13% 48% F+ D B- A+ A+ B+ C+ B B-
1.15 44% 67% 27% -10 +3 0.88 44% 1.1 .50 18% .49 85% .42 1.06 70% 29% 32% +2 +1 1.08 31% 0.5 .17 19% .32 71% .22
Jan
7		 VMI C- B+ A+ B- B- 43% 23% 34% C B- F A+ D B- B- A- B+ C- C D- A C- 42% 13% 44% D- C- C- A+ A+ F F A F
1.22 70% 55% 38% +11 0 1.23 21% 1.6 .33 15% .34 79% .27 1.01 55% 43% 26% -6 +1 0.92 28% 0.4 .10 9% .45 63% .28
Jan
10		 UNC Greensboro C A+ C+ D+ B+ 53% 17% 30% A- A- F A+ D- B F B F A+ A- A+ B+ A+ 43% 18% 39% F+ A+ F B D+ A+ F F+ F
1.20 78% 40% 33% +11 +2 1.27 12% 2.0 .23 11% .13 75% .09 0.84 47% 0% 29% -14 +1 0.75 35% 0.9 .32 29% .49 76% .37
Jan
14		 Western Carolina D+ C F D+ D- 44% 14% 42% B+ D C F F A+ A- D+ B+ D+ D+ F D F 36% 17% 47% C F D- B+ C A B F+ C+
1.08 59% 29% 33% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.5 .13 8% .40 74% .29 1.15 59% 63% 36% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.8 .32 22% .25 75% .18
Jan
17		 Samford A A+ C A+ A+ 31% 44% 24% F A- F A+ C B+ B- A+ A F+ A- F F F 24% 16% 60% C+ F B+ D- C+ D- A+ F B
1.26 79% 40% 45% +12 -4 1.18 17% 1.8 .30 10% .31 94% .30 1.25 50% 50% 43% +9 0 1.18 19% 1.2 .22 10% .24 85% .20
Jan
21		 Chattanooga D- D B+ F F 52% 13% 35% A- F C+ A B+ C- F C- F B C+ F C- D+ 41% 6% 53% F D- C A+ A A A- F B-
1.00 52% 43% 17% -11 +2 0.83 34% 1.4 .47 15% .19 73% .14 0.98 55% 67% 35% +1 +2 1.08 19% 0.5 .10 21% .21 91% .19
Jan
23		 The Citadel B+ A+ A B- B+ 37% 8% 55% C+ B+ D+ A+ B+ B- C+ C C+ A- A+ A+ F C+ 31% 16% 53% C C A+ B A+ D- C A+ A
1.31 78% 50% 37% +11 +1 1.27 30% 1.5 .44 12% .30 71% .21 0.86 40% 0% 42% -5 0 0.92 13% 0.8 .10 16% .28 40% .11
Jan
29		 Western Carolina B+ C+ A+ C C+ 40% 20% 40% C+ C+ D+ B- C A+ A+ B A+ F F A+ D- F 33% 15% 52% C F C- F F D+ F F+ F
1.29 60% 60% 35% +6 0 1.14 26% 1.1 .29 9% .56 80% .45 1.31 87% 14% 38% +9 0 1.20 35% 1.3 .45 16% .49 75% .37
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Wofford A+ D F D- F 59% 14% 27% B+ D- B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C B- F B+ C 58% 8% 34% F C- A F D- C B- F C
1.32 52% 29% 31% -6 +2 0.94 38% 1.7 .66 9% .47 93% .44 1.11 52% 75% 29% -3 +3 1.02 20% 1.7 .33 15% .29 81% .24
Feb
4		 Furman D C- F A+ C+ 44% 25% 31% C C+ F F F B A+ C A B- F F C+ F 45% 9% 47% D- F B+ B B+ A+ A A A
1.03 54% 29% 41% -1 0 1.00 22% 0.6 .14 12% .35 73% .25 0.98 76% 75% 32% +10 +2 1.26 25% 0.9 .21 29% .19 60% .12
Feb
7		 VMI C+ C- A+ A+ A+ 20% 31% 49% F A- C A+ A- F D A+ C C+ B F C- D- 39% 6% 56% F D- A+ F C- C C+ C+ C+
1.23 60% 67% 46% +18 -3 1.33 40% 1.3 .52 24% .26 86% .22 0.99 48% 67% 33% -3 +2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 17% .27 69% .19
Feb
11		 Chattanooga D+ F F D- F 47% 17% 36% B- F F B- D- A+ A+ C+ A+ B A- A+ B+ A 37% 16% 47% D A- B+ F D+ C- A- F B
1.10 45% 25% 29% -11 +1 0.83 23% 1.2 .28 8% .57 74% .43 0.92 47% 25% 29% -9 +1 0.84 15% 1.6 .24 15% .21 83% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.7 14.9 33.6 31.4 11.7 93.2 1st
2nd 0.1 3.0 2.4 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.4 0.7 1.1 3rd
4th 0.2 0.2 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.7 5.4 17.3 33.6 31.4 11.7 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 11.7    11.7
15-3 100.0% 31.4    31.4
14-4 100.0% 33.6    31.1 2.5
13-5 85.9% 14.9    7.1 6.6 1.2
12-6 31.2% 1.7    0.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0
11-7 1.5% 0.0    0.0
10-8
9-9
Total 93.2% 93.2 81.3 9.5 2.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 11.7% 43.9% 43.9% 12.9 1.5 2.9 0.7 0.0 6.6
15-3 31.4% 38.7% 38.7% 13.6 0.4 5.0 6.0 0.7 19.2
14-4 33.6% 34.5% 34.5% 14.0 0.1 2.5 7.0 2.1 0.0 22.0
13-5 17.3% 29.3% 29.3% 14.2 0.5 3.2 1.4 0.0 12.3
12-6 5.4% 24.1% 24.1% 14.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 4.1
11-7 0.7% 24.2% 24.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 35.4% 35.4% 0.0% 13.7 64.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.1% 100.0% 12.9 28.2 57.2 14.2 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.1%