East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#131
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#197
Pace67.4#222
Improvement+2.0#66

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#149
First Shot+0.3#169
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#155
Layup/Dunks-2.1#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#51
Freethrows-2.8#329
Improvement-1.3#284

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#141
First Shot+0.9#138
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#179
Layups/Dunks-3.3#303
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#43
Freethrows+0.6#148
Improvement+3.3#7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.0% 20.0% 14.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 89.1% 93.8% 81.5%
.500 or above in Conference 91.3% 92.8% 88.9%
Conference Champion 23.4% 25.9% 19.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round18.0% 20.0% 14.8%
Second Round1.7% 2.1% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UMKC (Away) - 61.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 41 - 4
Quad 35 - 56 - 9
Quad 413 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 219   Eastern Kentucky L 78-82 76%     0 - 1 -9.8 +4.8 -14.8
  Nov 16, 2024 122   @ Davidson L 70-76 36%     0 - 2 -0.5 +6.1 -7.3
  Nov 22, 2024 337   South Carolina Upstate W 87-76 92%     1 - 2 -3.2 +1.1 -5.1
  Nov 24, 2024 271   Queens W 82-67 84%     2 - 2 +6.2 +5.4 +1.0
  Nov 27, 2024 191   @ Charlotte W 75-55 50%     3 - 2 +21.6 +6.0 +16.8
  Nov 30, 2024 274   Austin Peay W 79-57 84%     4 - 2 +13.0 +9.3 +5.0
  Dec 03, 2024 115   @ James Madison L 61-71 33%     4 - 3 -3.8 -6.1 +1.7
  Dec 07, 2024 110   @ Wichita St. L 87-96 32%     4 - 4 -2.3 +10.2 -11.8
  Dec 14, 2024 204   @ Jacksonville L 52-60 53%     4 - 5 -7.0 -16.8 +9.7
  Dec 18, 2024 178   Elon W 84-58 71%     5 - 5 +22.0 +15.0 +8.9
  Dec 21, 2024 240   @ UMKC W 71-68 62%    
  Jan 01, 2025 348   VMI W 81-64 95%    
  Jan 04, 2025 158   Wofford W 72-67 68%    
  Jan 08, 2025 239   @ Mercer W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 11, 2025 355   The Citadel W 77-59 95%    
  Jan 15, 2025 127   @ Furman L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 18, 2025 113   @ Samford L 77-82 33%    
  Jan 22, 2025 309   Western Carolina W 78-65 88%    
  Jan 25, 2025 177   Chattanooga W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 29, 2025 157   @ UNC Greensboro L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 127   Furman W 70-68 59%    
  Feb 05, 2025 348   @ VMI W 78-67 84%    
  Feb 08, 2025 113   Samford W 80-79 55%    
  Feb 12, 2025 309   @ Western Carolina W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 15, 2025 177   @ Chattanooga L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 19, 2025 157   UNC Greensboro W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 158   @ Wofford L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 26, 2025 239   Mercer W 77-68 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 355   @ The Citadel W 74-62 85%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.1 7.0 6.8 4.1 1.5 0.3 23.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.9 8.2 5.1 1.3 0.1 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.8 7.9 3.5 0.5 0.0 17.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.5 2.7 0.2 0.0 14.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.2 2.1 0.1 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.3 1.3 0.1 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.1 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.6 7.9 11.4 14.2 16.1 15.1 12.5 8.1 4.3 1.5 0.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.5    1.4 0.0
16-2 97.6% 4.1    3.8 0.3 0.0
15-3 84.1% 6.8    5.0 1.7 0.1
14-4 56.0% 7.0    3.2 3.1 0.7 0.0
13-5 20.8% 3.1    0.7 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.4% 23.4 14.4 6.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 49.6% 49.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.5% 43.1% 43.1% 12.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8
16-2 4.3% 36.5% 36.5% 12.7 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.7
15-3 8.1% 34.1% 34.1% 13.1 0.5 1.6 0.6 0.0 5.3
14-4 12.5% 27.9% 27.9% 13.4 0.3 1.7 1.3 0.2 9.0
13-5 15.1% 21.8% 21.8% 13.8 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 11.8
12-6 16.1% 16.2% 16.2% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.8 0.0 13.5
11-7 14.2% 11.9% 11.9% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 12.5
10-8 11.4% 9.0% 9.0% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 10.4
9-9 7.9% 6.5% 6.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 7.4
8-10 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 15.7 0.1 0.1 4.3
7-11 2.4% 3.9% 3.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.3
6-12 1.1% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-13 0.4% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.0 5.9 6.2 3.3 0.6 82.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.9 2.1 4.2 8.3 8.3 43.8 33.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%