East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#153
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#200
Pace65.5#255
Improvement-0.5#211

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#160
First Shot-0.4#188
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#116
Layup/Dunks-2.5#279
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#165
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#38
Freethrows-3.2#345
Improvement-1.5#275

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#172
First Shot-0.2#188
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#171
Layups/Dunks-2.7#285
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#169
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#82
Freethrows-0.2#200
Improvement+1.0#131
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.5% 13.8% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 89.2% 94.4% 76.6%
.500 or above in Conference 96.3% 98.8% 90.3%
Conference Champion 8.2% 10.8% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round12.5% 13.8% 9.4%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Away) - 70.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 35 - 96 - 11
Quad 411 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 231   Eastern Kentucky L 78-82 75%     0 - 1 -10.4 +3.4 -14.1
  Nov 16, 2024 126   @ Davidson L 70-76 35%     0 - 2 -1.4 +5.1 -7.1
  Nov 22, 2024 346   South Carolina Upstate W 87-76 91%     1 - 2 -3.5 +0.3 -4.6
  Nov 24, 2024 213   Queens W 82-67 72%     2 - 2 +9.6 +7.1 +2.8
  Nov 27, 2024 221   @ Charlotte W 75-55 56%     3 - 2 +19.2 +5.8 +14.6
  Nov 30, 2024 296   Austin Peay W 79-57 84%     4 - 2 +12.1 +7.4 +6.0
  Dec 03, 2024 137   @ James Madison L 61-71 38%     4 - 3 -6.1 -6.6 -0.1
  Dec 07, 2024 134   @ Wichita St. L 87-96 37%     4 - 4 -5.0 +8.4 -12.6
  Dec 14, 2024 179   @ Jacksonville L 52-60 47%     4 - 5 -6.4 -16.8 +10.2
  Dec 18, 2024 175   Elon W 84-58 65%     5 - 5 +22.8 +14.9 +9.7
  Dec 21, 2024 235   @ UMKC L 66-73 60%     5 - 6 -8.8 +5.8 -15.8
  Jan 01, 2025 304   VMI W 84-69 85%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +4.5 +13.2 -7.4
  Jan 04, 2025 151   Wofford L 78-81 59%     6 - 7 1 - 1 -4.7 +5.2 -10.0
  Jan 08, 2025 222   @ Mercer W 70-68 56%     7 - 7 2 - 1 +1.1 +0.0 +1.1
  Jan 11, 2025 358   The Citadel W 70-52 94%     8 - 7 3 - 1 +1.4 -0.3 +4.1
  Jan 15, 2025 165   @ Furman L 70-73 42%     8 - 8 3 - 2 -0.4 +1.9 -2.5
  Jan 18, 2025 109   @ Samford W 65-60 29%     9 - 8 4 - 2 +11.4 -5.2 +16.6
  Jan 22, 2025 350   Western Carolina W 85-58 92%     10 - 8 5 - 2 +11.7 +13.6 +0.2
  Jan 25, 2025 138   Chattanooga L 63-71 57%     10 - 9 5 - 3 -9.1 -12.7 +3.5
  Jan 29, 2025 159   @ UNC Greensboro L 65-70 41%     10 - 10 5 - 4 -2.1 +9.6 -13.0
  Feb 02, 2025 165   Furman W 72-69 62%     11 - 10 6 - 4 +0.7 +6.6 -5.5
  Feb 05, 2025 304   @ VMI W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 08, 2025 109   Samford L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 12, 2025 350   @ Western Carolina W 77-66 83%    
  Feb 15, 2025 138   @ Chattanooga L 71-74 37%    
  Feb 19, 2025 159   UNC Greensboro W 69-66 62%    
  Feb 22, 2025 151   @ Wofford L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 26, 2025 222   Mercer W 77-70 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 358   @ The Citadel W 73-61 86%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.9 5.3 2.1 8.2 1st
2nd 0.9 9.3 6.2 0.2 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 7.4 10.6 0.5 18.8 3rd
4th 0.1 4.4 13.9 2.3 20.7 4th
5th 0.1 3.0 12.3 5.1 0.0 20.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 5.5 4.7 0.2 11.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 1.3 0.1 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.5 3.1 9.9 21.8 27.5 23.0 11.9 2.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 92.9% 2.1    1.3 0.7 0.0
13-5 44.0% 5.3    0.8 2.5 1.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.2% 8.2 2.2 3.3 1.9 0.6 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.3% 31.1% 31.1% 12.6 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.6
13-5 11.9% 21.8% 21.8% 13.6 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.1 9.3
12-6 23.0% 16.0% 16.0% 14.0 0.0 0.7 2.2 0.7 0.0 19.3
11-7 27.5% 10.7% 10.7% 14.3 0.3 1.7 0.9 0.1 24.6
10-8 21.8% 8.4% 8.4% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.1 20.0
9-9 9.9% 6.0% 6.0% 15.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 9.3
8-10 3.1% 5.8% 5.8% 15.7 0.1 0.1 3.0
7-11 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 14.1 0.4 2.4 5.8 3.5 0.4 87.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 12.6 47.1 50.0 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%