Samford
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.9#109
Expected Predictive Rating+6.2#84
Pace73.9#51
Improvement-0.9#231

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#77
First Shot+0.7#153
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#27
Layup/Dunks-1.3#227
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.3#12
Freethrows-3.0#340
Improvement-4.2#346

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#161
First Shot+0.4#166
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#210
Layups/Dunks+0.4#154
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#125
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#168
Freethrows-1.3#278
Improvement+3.3#27
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.6% 32.0% 29.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 70.7% 74.7% 49.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round31.6% 32.0% 29.6%
Second Round3.5% 3.7% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 84.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 22 - 22 - 4
Quad 39 - 410 - 7
Quad 413 - 123 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 122   @ Cornell L 86-88 47%     0 - 1 +2.8 -1.6 +4.7
  Nov 15, 2024 155   @ North Alabama W 97-96 OT 53%     1 - 1 +4.1 +4.1 -0.2
  Nov 17, 2024 274   Texas Southern W 97-82 88%     2 - 1 +6.2 +15.5 -10.4
  Nov 19, 2024 15   @ Michigan St. L 75-83 8%     2 - 2 +11.4 +11.7 -0.2
  Nov 26, 2024 139   North Dakota St. W 103-98 OT 69%     3 - 2 +3.8 +18.6 -15.0
  Nov 27, 2024 132   Utah Valley W 84-76 68%     4 - 2 +7.1 +5.8 +0.6
  Nov 29, 2024 345   West Georgia W 86-65 95%     5 - 2 +6.7 +6.9 -0.1
  Dec 05, 2024 229   @ South Carolina St. W 88-81 69%     6 - 2 +5.8 +19.1 -13.2
  Dec 08, 2024 296   Austin Peay W 72-47 90%     7 - 2 +15.1 +1.5 +15.6
  Dec 18, 2024 10   @ Arizona L 64-96 7%     7 - 3 -11.7 -0.7 -10.4
  Dec 21, 2024 360   @ Alabama A&M W 97-90 92%     8 - 3 -4.9 +7.7 -13.4
  Jan 01, 2025 358   The Citadel W 86-56 96%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +13.4 +12.9 +2.7
  Jan 04, 2025 350   @ Western Carolina W 88-69 90%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +8.7 +8.6 -0.7
  Jan 09, 2025 304   VMI W 81-68 91%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +2.5 +0.6 +1.5
  Jan 11, 2025 159   UNC Greensboro W 76-69 72%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +4.9 +8.6 -3.1
  Jan 15, 2025 222   @ Mercer W 75-74 68%     13 - 3 5 - 0 +0.1 -0.6 +0.7
  Jan 18, 2025 153   East Tennessee St. L 60-65 71%     13 - 4 5 - 1 -6.8 -13.0 +6.1
  Jan 23, 2025 138   @ Chattanooga W 73-69 50%     14 - 4 6 - 1 +7.8 +3.3 +4.7
  Jan 25, 2025 151   Wofford W 77-61 71%     15 - 4 7 - 1 +14.3 +12.0 +4.7
  Jan 29, 2025 165   @ Furman L 70-72 55%     15 - 5 7 - 2 +0.6 -2.1 +2.7
  Feb 01, 2025 358   @ The Citadel W 83-58 92%     16 - 5 8 - 2 +13.4 +10.5 +4.3
  Feb 05, 2025 222   Mercer W 85-75 84%    
  Feb 08, 2025 153   @ East Tennessee St. W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 12, 2025 138   Chattanooga W 81-76 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 151   @ Wofford W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 19, 2025 165   Furman W 79-73 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 350   Western Carolina W 87-68 97%    
  Feb 27, 2025 304   @ VMI W 82-73 80%    
  Mar 01, 2025 159   @ UNC Greensboro W 74-73 52%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.5 16.2 27.6 19.4 6.0 70.7 1st
2nd 0.2 6.2 8.8 1.3 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 5.3 0.6 7.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 1.0 3.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 5.2 14.0 25.6 28.9 19.4 6.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 6.0    6.0
15-3 100.0% 19.4    19.1 0.4
14-4 95.7% 27.6    20.2 7.1 0.3
13-5 63.2% 16.2    4.0 7.8 3.9 0.5 0.0
12-6 10.4% 1.5    0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 70.7% 70.7 49.2 15.6 4.8 0.9 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 6.0% 44.1% 44.1% 12.0 0.4 1.9 0.4 3.3
15-3 19.4% 39.5% 39.5% 12.6 0.1 3.4 3.7 0.6 11.8
14-4 28.9% 34.4% 34.4% 13.0 0.0 2.3 5.8 1.7 0.1 18.9
13-5 25.6% 27.7% 27.7% 13.3 0.7 3.5 2.6 0.2 18.5
12-6 14.0% 22.1% 22.1% 13.6 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.2 10.9
11-7 5.2% 20.2% 20.2% 13.8 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 4.1
10-8 0.8% 16.3% 16.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
9-9 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 31.6% 31.6% 0.0% 13.0 0.5 8.4 15.0 7.1 0.7 0.0 68.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.6% 100.0% 12.0 15.6 70.3 14.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%