Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.9 #249
Expected Predictive Rating -5.6 #254
Pace 68.0 #214
Improvement -0.1 #191

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #167 D+ F A+ C C
Defense #314 D+ C F C A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #262 1.21 #113 -0.7 #206
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #198 0.66 #309 -1.4 #248
Three Pointers 45% #99 0.91 #310 -0.4 #191
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #245 -2.4 #245
Freethrows 18.7 #128 67% #328 12.5 #192
Second Chance 23.9% #336 0.99 #255 0.24 #335
Turnovers 12.5% #10
Total Offense -0.1 #167

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #189 1.12 #125 +0.8 #143
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #11 0.87 #324 -5.1 #364
Three Pointers 32% #358 1.18 #349 +2.1 #110
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #250 -2.2 #251
Freethrows 16.3 #106 78% #354 12.7 #177
Second Chance 27.6% #78 1.14 #298 0.32 #172
Turnovers 12.3% #356
Total Defense -4.8 #314

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #202 -2.3% #29
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.7% #254 6.8% #305
Possession Length 17.5 #192 17.4 #193
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #342 0.15 #118
Improvement +2.2 #69 -2.3 #307

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 4.7% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 19.2% 26.2% 8.4%
.500 or above in Conference 33.2% 43.8% 16.8%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 1.5% 6.0%
First Four1.4% 1.3% 1.7%
First Round3.3% 4.1% 2.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Home) - 60.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 412 - 614 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 172 @Tulane L 72 - 85 26% -6  0 - 1 -11 +5 D+ B C+ -17 F A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 7 359 South Carolina St. W 82 - 72 89% +1  1 - 1 -8 -1 F F B -7 D+ C- F
 Wed, Nov 12 335 @Texas Southern W 93 - 90 OT 62% -1  2 - 1 -5 +7 D- C- B+ -13 F A+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 20 @Arkansas L 75 - 79 2% -8  2 - 2 +16 +7 B- F A+ +9 A+ A+ C
 Sun, Nov 16 236 @Central Arkansas W 84 - 77 OT 36% -3  3 - 2 +6 +5 C+ F A+ +0 B- A- D
 Wed, Nov 19 225 Florida Gulf Coast L 62 - 77 57% -9  3 - 3 -22 -15 F F B -7 D F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 133 @New Mexico St. L 72 - 81 18% -10  3 - 4 -4 +9 D- C A+ -14 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 273 Georgia St. W 78 - 63 55% +7  4 - 4 +9 +6 C+ B+ F +3 A+ D F
 Wed, Nov 26 107 Utah Valley L 45 - 89 19% -23  4 - 5 -40 -27 F F D- -11 F C+ D
 Fri, Dec 5 55 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57 - 83 6% -7  4 - 6 -13 -11 F F A -2 C- C B+
 Sun, Dec 7 187 Cornell W 93 - 90 50% -3  5 - 6 -2 +3 C+ C- C -5 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 1 349 @VMI W 78 - 58 67% +4  6 - 6 1 - 0 +11 +3 B F A+ +9 B A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 294 @UNC Greensboro L 82 - 89 49% -8  6 - 7 1 - 1 -12 +10 C C A+ -22 F F F
 Wed, Jan 7 289 Western Carolina W 82 - 77 70% -6  7 - 7 2 - 1 -5 +6 C C A+ -11 A F D-
 Sat, Jan 10 247 @Chattanooga L 79 - 88 38% -14  7 - 8 2 - 2 -11 +1 C F A+ -12 D+ C F
 Wed, Jan 14 165 Furman L 73 - 77 45% -2  7 - 9 2 - 3 -8 -1 C- F B+ -6 C C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 135 East Tennessee St. L 75 - 76 37% -5  7 - 10 2 - 4 -2 +14 A- D+ A+ -17 F C F
 Wed, Jan 21 215 @Wofford L 78 - 88 33% -1  7 - 11 2 - 5 -10 +8 B- D+ A- -19 F C F
 Sat, Jan 24 247 Chattanooga W 77 - 74 61%
 Thu, Jan 29 165 @Furman L 70 - 77 25%
 Sat, Jan 31 289 @Western Carolina L 79 - 80 49%
 Thu, Feb 5 351 The Citadel W 79 - 68 84%
 Sat, Feb 7 149 Mercer L 80 - 83 41%
 Wed, Feb 11 215 Wofford W 79 - 78 55%
 Sat, Feb 14 135 @East Tennessee St. L 69 - 78 19%
 Thu, Feb 19 351 @The Citadel W 76 - 71 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 149 @Mercer L 77 - 86 22%
 Thu, Feb 26 349 VMI W 82 - 71 83%
 Sat, Feb 28 294 UNC Greensboro W 81 - 75 70%
Totals 13 - 16 8 - 10 -5 +0 D+ F A+ -5 D+ C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 3.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.0 1.3 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.3 4.4 9.6 3.5 0.2 17.9 5th
6th 0.2 4.9 11.3 5.1 0.3 21.9 6th
7th 0.1 4.1 11.6 6.2 0.5 22.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.6 7.5 4.3 0.5 0.0 15.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.3 2.0 0.2 7.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.2 6.4 13.7 21.3 22.6 17.9 10.3 4.0 0.9 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 57.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 9.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 11.5% 11.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8
11-7 4.0% 11.0% 11.0% 15.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 3.6
10-8 10.3% 8.5% 8.5% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 9.4
9-9 17.9% 6.2% 6.2% 15.6 0.4 0.7 16.8
8-10 22.6% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7 21.8
7-11 21.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.5 20.9
6-12 13.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.6
5-13 6.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 6.3
4-14 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.2
3-15 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 15.6 96.0 0.0%