Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.6#43
Expected Predictive Rating+9.9#65
Pace73.2#95
Improvement+2.0#47

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#79
First Shot+3.2#95
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#129
Layup/Dunks+1.2#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#52
Freethrows+0.5#151
Improvement+0.1#172

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#17
First Shot+4.7#47
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#45
Layups/Dunks+0.3#162
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#189
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#18
Freethrows-2.1#299
Improvement+1.9#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 1.3% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 3.6% 4.2% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.9% 44.4% 30.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.4% 24.7% 12.0%
Average Seed 9.5 9.4 10.2
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.6% 97.1% 94.5%
Conference Champion 32.9% 34.4% 25.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.2% 7.6% 5.3%
First Round38.6% 40.9% 27.5%
Second Round17.9% 19.3% 10.7%
Sweet Sixteen5.2% 5.6% 3.1%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.1% 0.7%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Home) - 83.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 26 - 38 - 7
Quad 36 - 114 - 9
Quad 410 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 297 Wagner W 103-74 97%     1 - 0 +18.4 +18.0 -2.0
  Fri, Nov 7 51 Utah St. L 77-80 54%     1 - 1 +7.6 +2.5 +5.3
  Wed, Nov 12 329 St. Peter's W 78-61 98%     2 - 1 +4.3 +2.0 +2.8
  Mon, Nov 17 35 @North Carolina St. L 79-85 33%     2 - 2 +10.0 +6.9 +3.4
  Sat, Nov 22 364 Coppin St. W 101-58 99%     3 - 2 +23.0 +14.3 +6.2
  Wed, Nov 26 79 South Florida W 78-66 66%     4 - 2 +19.3 +6.0 +12.9
  Thu, Nov 27 12 Vanderbilt L 74-89 25%     4 - 3 +3.7 +2.5 +2.2
  Fri, Nov 28 70 Virginia Tech W 86-68 64%     5 - 3 +25.8 +15.4 +10.3
  Fri, Dec 5 228 Samford W 83-57 95%     6 - 3 +19.0 +5.3 +13.6
  Wed, Dec 10 103 New Mexico W 83-73 83%    
  Mon, Dec 15 347 Niagara W 82-56 99%    
  Thu, Dec 18 250 American W 84-65 97%    
  Mon, Dec 22 335 Rider W 84-59 99%    
  Wed, Dec 31 111 St. Bonaventure W 76-65 84%    
  Sat, Jan 3 135 @Duquesne W 82-75 73%    
  Wed, Jan 7 46 Saint Louis W 80-76 63%    
  Sat, Jan 10 66 @George Mason W 71-70 50%    
  Wed, Jan 14 110 @Rhode Island W 76-71 66%    
  Mon, Jan 19 184 Saint Joseph's W 82-66 93%    
  Sat, Jan 24 137 @Davidson W 75-68 72%    
  Tue, Jan 27 104 Richmond W 80-70 82%    
  Fri, Jan 30 259 Loyola Chicago W 82-62 97%    
  Tue, Feb 3 211 @Fordham W 76-64 85%    
  Fri, Feb 6 67 Dayton W 76-70 71%    
  Wed, Feb 11 229 @La Salle W 77-64 87%    
  Sat, Feb 14 104 @Richmond W 77-73 63%    
  Tue, Feb 17 62 George Washington W 83-78 69%    
  Fri, Feb 20 46 @Saint Louis L 77-79 41%    
  Sat, Feb 28 211 Fordham W 79-61 94%    
  Tue, Mar 3 66 George Mason W 74-68 71%    
  Fri, Mar 6 67 @Dayton W 74-73 49%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 6.3 10.5 8.9 4.6 1.1 32.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 6.5 8.2 3.8 0.5 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 5.1 6.4 2.0 0.1 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.4 5.2 1.7 0.1 10.9 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 4.1 1.6 0.1 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.4 0.2 3.6 7th
8th 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.3 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 3.7 6.9 10.3 13.5 16.1 16.6 14.4 9.4 4.6 1.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 100.0% 4.6    4.5 0.1
16-2 94.5% 8.9    7.3 1.6 0.0
15-3 72.7% 10.5    6.1 3.7 0.6 0.0
14-4 38.1% 6.3    2.0 2.9 1.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 8.7% 1.4    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.9% 32.9 21.0 8.8 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 98.8% 50.2% 48.6% 4.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.5%
17-1 4.6% 92.8% 45.4% 47.4% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.3 86.9%
16-2 9.4% 82.1% 42.0% 40.0% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.9 1.8 0.7 1.7 69.1%
15-3 14.4% 65.0% 33.9% 31.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.4 2.7 0.0 5.0 47.1%
14-4 16.6% 49.8% 28.9% 20.9% 10.3 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.8 4.0 0.2 8.3 29.4%
13-5 16.1% 34.0% 24.0% 10.0% 10.7 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.9 0.1 0.0 10.6 13.1%
12-6 13.5% 23.8% 19.4% 4.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.6 0.3 10.3 5.5%
11-7 10.3% 14.5% 13.1% 1.4% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.3 8.8 1.6%
10-8 6.9% 9.5% 9.0% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.2 0.6%
9-9 3.7% 6.5% 6.5% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.5
8-10 2.1% 6.1% 6.1% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.0
7-11 0.8% 1.6% 1.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.8
6-12 0.3% 4.1% 4.1% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 41.9% 25.1% 16.8% 9.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.3 5.6 9.9 15.7 1.3 0.0 58.1 22.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 3.1 12.3 20.1 24.0 34.4 6.5 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 91.8% 5.9 4.1 6.1 24.5 28.6 20.4 4.1 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 5.8 26.3 21.1 17.5 14.0 19.3 1.8