Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.2#54
Expected Predictive Rating+6.8#81
Pace65.9#251
Improvement+0.1#183

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#62
First Shot-1.3#217
After Offensive Rebound+5.8#2
Layup/Dunks-2.1#259
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#190
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#131
Freethrows-0.1#182
Improvement+4.1#14

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#41
First Shot+6.5#21
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#250
Layups/Dunks+3.0#71
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#4
Freethrows-1.0#260
Improvement-4.0#353
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.2% 30.8% 21.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.5% 4.7% 1.2%
Average Seed 10.5 10.5 11.2
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 98.0% 91.2%
Conference Champion 34.0% 35.2% 14.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four2.0% 2.0% 0.7%
First Round29.3% 29.8% 21.1%
Second Round11.2% 11.4% 7.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 3.2% 2.0%
Elite Eight0.9% 0.9% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

Next Game: Fordham (Home) - 94.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 3
Quad 25 - 46 - 6
Quad 38 - 214 - 9
Quad 49 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 346   Bellarmine W 84-65 98%     1 - 0 +3.8 +5.0 -0.2
  Nov 08, 2024 179   Boston College W 80-55 85%     2 - 0 +24.2 +4.6 +19.0
  Nov 13, 2024 195   Merrimack W 63-42 91%     3 - 0 +16.2 -10.6 +26.5
  Nov 16, 2024 314   Loyola Maryland W 83-57 97%     4 - 0 +14.2 +2.8 +10.7
  Nov 21, 2024 130   Seton Hall L 66-69 OT 78%     4 - 1 -1.0 -6.7 +5.9
  Nov 22, 2024 60   Nevada L 61-64 56%     4 - 2 +5.6 +1.7 +3.4
  Nov 24, 2024 106   Miami (FL) W 77-70 73%     5 - 2 +10.9 +9.4 +2.2
  Dec 04, 2024 282   Georgia Southern W 89-54 96%     6 - 2 +25.3 +14.4 +11.9
  Dec 09, 2024 288   Penn W 66-47 96%     7 - 2 +9.1 -7.3 +18.1
  Dec 14, 2024 87   Colorado St. W 76-68 65%     8 - 2 +14.2 +12.8 +1.8
  Dec 18, 2024 59   @ New Mexico L 71-78 42%     8 - 3 +5.3 +1.2 +4.4
  Dec 22, 2024 200   William & Mary W 90-70 91%     9 - 3 +15.1 +6.8 +7.4
  Dec 31, 2024 74   @ St. Bonaventure L 75-77 49%     9 - 4 0 - 1 +8.5 +17.5 -9.2
  Jan 04, 2025 134   @ Loyola Chicago W 84-65 70%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +23.9 +21.0 +4.3
  Jan 08, 2025 221   Fordham W 81-64 94%    
  Jan 14, 2025 105   Saint Louis W 77-68 81%    
  Jan 17, 2025 95   @ Saint Joseph's W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 21, 2025 101   @ Rhode Island W 73-71 59%    
  Jan 24, 2025 74   St. Bonaventure W 70-64 71%    
  Jan 28, 2025 105   @ Saint Louis W 74-71 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 215   Richmond W 77-61 93%    
  Feb 04, 2025 170   La Salle W 80-66 90%    
  Feb 07, 2025 58   @ Dayton L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 12, 2025 125   @ George Washington W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 19, 2025 212   Massachusetts W 81-65 93%    
  Feb 22, 2025 81   George Mason W 67-61 72%    
  Feb 25, 2025 215   @ Richmond W 74-64 83%    
  Feb 28, 2025 117   Davidson W 75-65 83%    
  Mar 04, 2025 148   @ Duquesne W 69-62 72%    
  Mar 07, 2025 58   Dayton W 71-67 64%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 3.7 10.5 11.5 6.2 1.7 34.0 1st
2nd 0.2 3.0 8.9 6.8 1.7 0.1 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 6.6 5.4 1.0 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.8 5.1 1.1 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.2 1.5 0.1 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 1.8 0.1 5.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.5 7.0 11.6 16.8 19.1 18.3 13.3 6.3 1.7 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
16-2 98.4% 6.2    5.7 0.5
15-3 86.6% 11.5    8.3 2.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 57.3% 10.5    4.4 4.5 1.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 19.3% 3.7    0.6 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.0% 34.0 20.6 9.3 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.7% 80.5% 50.0% 30.5% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 61.0%
16-2 6.3% 60.2% 43.5% 16.7% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.0 2.5 29.5%
15-3 13.3% 46.6% 38.9% 7.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.5 0.2 7.1 12.6%
14-4 18.3% 35.3% 32.6% 2.7% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.9 0.6 11.8 4.0%
13-5 19.1% 29.2% 28.3% 0.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.2 1.2 0.0 13.6 1.2%
12-6 16.8% 22.3% 22.1% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 2.4 1.3 0.0 13.0 0.3%
11-7 11.6% 15.7% 15.6% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.0 9.8 0.1%
10-8 7.0% 12.4% 12.4% 0.0% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.1 0.0%
9-9 3.5% 8.5% 8.5% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.2
8-10 1.6% 4.7% 4.7% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
7-11 0.5% 5.2% 5.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.5
6-12 0.2% 4.2% 4.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.1% 5.9% 5.9% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 30.2% 26.9% 3.3% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.7 4.0 17.2 4.8 0.1 0.0 69.8 4.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 4.5 0.9 6.6 16.4 31.0 22.1 16.0 4.2 1.6 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 71.8% 8.1 1.4 2.1 6.3 19.7 10.6 14.8 14.1 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 61.4% 9.0 0.7 2.6 4.6 10.5 20.3 15.7 7.2