George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#81
Expected Predictive Rating+8.9#60
Pace62.7#326
Improvement+1.0#143

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#185
First Shot-1.8#232
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#109
Layup/Dunks+1.9#114
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#267
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#324
Freethrows+2.6#42
Improvement-1.3#263

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#22
First Shot+6.2#29
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#60
Layups/Dunks+6.2#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#256
Freethrows+1.8#66
Improvement+2.2#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.9% 18.7% 14.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 1.5% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.3 11.2 11.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 49.9% 59.4% 36.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 1.1% 0.4%
First Round16.4% 18.1% 14.1%
Second Round4.0% 4.4% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Washington (Away) - 58.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 23 - 24 - 5
Quad 38 - 313 - 8
Quad 411 - 123 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 295   NC Central W 75-58 94%     1 - 0 +7.2 -2.6 +10.2
  Nov 08, 2024 21   @ Marquette L 63-82 15%     1 - 1 -0.8 -3.3 +3.3
  Nov 11, 2024 318   Stony Brook W 94-56 95%     2 - 1 +26.3 +14.6 +12.0
  Nov 13, 2024 225   Central Michigan L 69-70 89%     2 - 2 -7.0 -4.6 -2.3
  Nov 16, 2024 150   @ East Carolina L 77-78 2OT 65%     2 - 3 +2.3 -2.1 +4.5
  Nov 20, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 93-55 99%     3 - 3 +17.8 +20.8 -0.5
  Nov 29, 2024 137   @ James Madison W 66-61 63%     4 - 3 +8.9 +0.2 +9.1
  Dec 03, 2024 172   UNC Asheville W 74-52 83%     5 - 3 +19.1 +2.2 +18.4
  Dec 07, 2024 141   Tulane W 76-64 79%     6 - 3 +10.7 +8.4 +3.1
  Dec 17, 2024 2   @ Duke L 47-68 6%     6 - 4 +4.5 -7.8 +10.0
  Dec 22, 2024 273   Penn W 85-53 92%     7 - 4 +23.2 +7.5 +16.4
  Dec 28, 2024 260   Mount St. Mary's W 64-56 92%     8 - 4 -0.1 -9.1 +9.2
  Dec 31, 2024 126   Davidson W 69-57 77%     9 - 4 1 - 0 +11.6 +4.4 +9.1
  Jan 04, 2025 121   @ Rhode Island L 59-62 60%     9 - 5 1 - 1 +1.8 -6.7 +8.3
  Jan 08, 2025 220   Richmond W 64-58 88%     10 - 5 2 - 1 +0.3 +1.5 -0.1
  Jan 11, 2025 152   Massachusetts W 77-70 81%     11 - 5 3 - 1 +5.2 +5.1 +0.1
  Jan 15, 2025 80   @ Dayton W 67-59 40%     12 - 5 4 - 1 +17.8 +9.6 +9.7
  Jan 18, 2025 124   George Washington W 80-77 2OT 77%     13 - 5 5 - 1 +2.6 -5.5 +7.6
  Jan 21, 2025 95   @ St. Bonaventure W 75-62 48%     14 - 5 6 - 1 +20.8 +11.1 +10.6
  Jan 29, 2025 128   Loyola Chicago W 58-53 OT 77%     15 - 5 7 - 1 +4.4 -10.2 +14.9
  Feb 01, 2025 126   @ Davidson W 64-60 60%     16 - 5 8 - 1 +8.6 -0.8 +9.9
  Feb 05, 2025 124   @ George Washington W 67-64 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 121   Rhode Island W 71-64 77%    
  Feb 11, 2025 105   @ Saint Louis W 66-65 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 86   Saint Joseph's W 67-64 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 38   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 60-67 24%    
  Feb 26, 2025 191   Fordham W 73-62 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 142   @ Duquesne W 63-59 62%    
  Mar 05, 2025 193   La Salle W 72-61 86%    
  Mar 08, 2025 220   @ Richmond W 66-58 76%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 4.6 14.7 18.3 10.2 1.8 49.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 6.4 15.9 12.7 3.0 38.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 4.0 1.4 0.1 7.3 3rd
4th 0.3 1.7 0.8 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.2 1.1 4.5 11.5 22.0 27.4 21.2 10.2 1.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8
16-2 100.0% 10.2    9.3 0.9
15-3 86.0% 18.3    12.5 5.7 0.0
14-4 53.4% 14.7    6.2 7.7 0.7 0.0
13-5 20.9% 4.6    0.7 2.4 1.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 49.9% 49.9 30.6 16.9 2.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.8% 37.0% 25.5% 11.4% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2 15.3%
16-2 10.2% 25.6% 22.7% 2.9% 11.0 0.1 0.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.6 3.8%
15-3 21.2% 19.3% 18.1% 1.2% 11.2 0.0 0.1 3.0 1.1 0.0 17.2 1.4%
14-4 27.4% 17.9% 17.5% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 2.8 2.0 0.1 22.5 0.4%
13-5 22.0% 13.4% 13.3% 0.1% 11.6 1.1 1.8 0.1 19.0 0.1%
12-6 11.5% 10.5% 10.5% 11.8 0.3 0.8 0.1 10.3
11-7 4.5% 9.0% 9.0% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 4.1
10-8 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 12.0 0.0 1.1
9-9 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 16.9% 16.0% 0.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 9.4 6.3 0.3 83.1 1.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 9.2 4.3 8.5 19.1 19.1 31.9 17.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 24.4% 10.7 2.4 2.4 19.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 12.5% 10.5 6.3 6.3