George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#90
Expected Predictive Rating+9.4#61
Pace62.8#318
Improvement-2.5#280

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#215
First Shot-2.7#250
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#121
Layup/Dunks+1.5#128
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#268
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#325
Freethrows+2.4#52
Improvement-1.6#266

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#26
First Shot+5.8#35
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#63
Layups/Dunks+6.2#24
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#234
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#263
Freethrows+1.7#68
Improvement-0.9#236
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.0% 13.9% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.6 11.6 11.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round8.8% 13.7% 0.1%
Second Round1.4% 2.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 3
Quad 24 - 15 - 4
Quad 37 - 313 - 7
Quad 411 - 124 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 316   NC Central W 75-58 94%     1 - 0 +4.9 -3.3 +8.7
  Nov 08, 2024 25   @ Marquette L 63-82 13%     1 - 1 -0.9 -3.3 +3.2
  Nov 11, 2024 324   Stony Brook W 94-56 95%     2 - 1 +25.5 +13.6 +12.2
  Nov 13, 2024 219   Central Michigan L 69-70 86%     2 - 2 -6.9 -6.3 -0.6
  Nov 16, 2024 163   @ East Carolina L 77-78 2OT 62%     2 - 3 +1.6 -3.2 +4.9
  Nov 20, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 93-55 98%     3 - 3 +18.1 +21.2 -0.5
  Nov 29, 2024 165   @ James Madison W 66-61 63%     4 - 3 +7.4 -2.2 +10.1
  Dec 03, 2024 203   UNC Asheville W 74-52 85%     5 - 3 +16.8 +1.1 +17.2
  Dec 07, 2024 141   Tulane W 76-64 76%     6 - 3 +10.3 +7.1 +4.0
  Dec 17, 2024 1   @ Duke L 47-68 2%     6 - 4 +8.4 -7.7 +13.7
  Dec 22, 2024 281   Penn W 85-53 92%     7 - 4 +22.5 +6.9 +16.3
  Dec 28, 2024 259   Mount St. Mary's W 64-56 90%     8 - 4 -0.1 -9.1 +9.2
  Dec 31, 2024 140   Davidson W 69-57 76%     9 - 4 1 - 0 +10.3 +4.8 +7.4
  Jan 04, 2025 138   @ Rhode Island L 59-62 57%     9 - 5 1 - 1 +1.1 -8.4 +9.3
  Jan 08, 2025 226   Richmond W 64-58 87%     10 - 5 2 - 1 -0.2 +0.3 +0.6
  Jan 11, 2025 190   Massachusetts W 77-70 83%     11 - 5 3 - 1 +2.7 +4.1 -1.4
  Jan 15, 2025 74   @ Dayton W 67-59 33%     12 - 5 4 - 1 +18.2 +9.9 +9.8
  Jan 18, 2025 114   George Washington W 80-77 2OT 69%     13 - 5 5 - 1 +3.5 -3.8 +6.8
  Jan 21, 2025 110   @ St. Bonaventure W 75-62 47%     14 - 5 6 - 1 +19.4 +12.7 +7.6
  Jan 29, 2025 109   Loyola Chicago W 58-53 OT 68%     15 - 5 7 - 1 +6.0 -9.8 +16.1
  Feb 01, 2025 140   @ Davidson W 64-60 57%     16 - 5 8 - 1 +7.8 -0.1 +8.5
  Feb 05, 2025 114   @ George Washington W 53-50 49%     17 - 5 9 - 1 +9.1 -13.4 +22.6
  Feb 08, 2025 138   Rhode Island W 82-67 76%     18 - 5 10 - 1 +13.6 +15.8 -0.8
  Feb 11, 2025 100   @ Saint Louis W 76-74 OT 45%     19 - 5 11 - 1 +9.1 +8.1 +1.1
  Feb 15, 2025 76   Saint Joseph's W 58-57 54%     20 - 5 12 - 1 +5.7 -0.4 +6.3
  Feb 22, 2025 35   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 54-70 16%     20 - 6 12 - 2 +0.3 -5.5 +4.3
  Feb 26, 2025 238   Fordham W 74-64 88%     21 - 6 13 - 2 +3.1 -4.1 +7.0
  Mar 01, 2025 122   @ Duquesne L 68-85 53%     21 - 7 13 - 3 -11.9 +0.6 -13.0
  Mar 05, 2025 225   La Salle W 69-62 87%     22 - 7 14 - 3 +0.8 -2.2 +3.4
  Mar 08, 2025 226   @ Richmond W 64-60 73%     23 - 7 15 - 3 +3.3 +0.9 +3.0
Projected Record 23 - 7 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 9.0% 8.7% 0.3% 11.6 0.1 3.6 5.3 0.0 91.0 0.3%
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.0% 8.7% 0.3% 11.6 0.1 3.6 5.3 0.0 91.0 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.7% 100.0% 11.6 0.8 39.6 59.5 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 19.1% 0.7% 11.4 0.4 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 36.3% 0.2% 11.5 0.1 0.1
Lose Out 36.0% 0.2% 11.5 0.1 0.1