George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.5#87
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#134
Pace64.3#302
Improvement+1.1#112

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#147
First Shot-1.9#230
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#34
Layup/Dunks+2.3#102
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#289
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#336
Freethrows+2.9#42
Improvement-0.3#193

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#42
First Shot+5.6#35
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#184
Layups/Dunks+5.3#38
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#198
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#184
Freethrows+0.1#184
Improvement+1.4#79
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 10.9% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.4 11.4 11.8
.500 or above 94.3% 95.0% 82.3%
.500 or above in Conference 86.1% 86.7% 76.5%
Conference Champion 11.8% 12.2% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 1.5%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round10.5% 10.8% 6.2%
Second Round3.0% 3.1% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Home) - 93.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 4
Quad 23 - 33 - 7
Quad 37 - 411 - 10
Quad 410 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 262   NC Central W 75-58 91%     1 - 0 +8.6 -1.1 +10.2
  Nov 08, 2024 17   @ Marquette L 63-82 14%     1 - 1 -0.9 -4.5 +4.4
  Nov 11, 2024 306   Stony Brook W 94-56 94%     2 - 1 +26.9 +15.9 +11.2
  Nov 13, 2024 226   Central Michigan L 69-70 88%     2 - 2 -7.3 -4.5 -2.9
  Nov 16, 2024 162   @ East Carolina L 77-78 2OT 64%     2 - 3 +1.7 -1.9 +3.7
  Nov 20, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 93-55 99%     3 - 3 +16.8 +19.3 +0.0
  Nov 29, 2024 115   @ James Madison W 66-61 51%     4 - 3 +11.2 +0.7 +10.9
  Dec 03, 2024 166   UNC Asheville W 74-52 83%     5 - 3 +18.5 +3.2 +16.8
  Dec 07, 2024 202   Tulane W 76-64 86%     6 - 3 +7.1 +5.6 +2.2
  Dec 17, 2024 2   @ Duke L 47-68 6%     6 - 4 +3.0 -7.5 +8.2
  Dec 22, 2024 287   Penn W 74-58 94%    
  Dec 28, 2024 254   Mount St. Mary's W 76-61 92%    
  Dec 31, 2024 122   Davidson W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 04, 2025 98   @ Rhode Island L 70-72 43%    
  Jan 08, 2025 214   Richmond W 73-61 87%    
  Jan 11, 2025 190   Massachusetts W 76-65 84%    
  Jan 15, 2025 41   @ Dayton L 63-70 25%    
  Jan 18, 2025 137   George Washington W 74-66 77%    
  Jan 21, 2025 89   @ St. Bonaventure L 62-65 39%    
  Jan 29, 2025 106   Loyola Chicago W 69-64 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 122   @ Davidson W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 05, 2025 137   @ George Washington W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 08, 2025 98   Rhode Island W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 11, 2025 144   @ Saint Louis W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 97   Saint Joseph's W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 58   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 61-67 30%    
  Feb 26, 2025 169   Fordham W 74-64 82%    
  Mar 01, 2025 199   @ Duquesne W 66-61 68%    
  Mar 05, 2025 165   La Salle W 74-64 81%    
  Mar 08, 2025 214   @ Richmond W 70-64 71%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.1 4.0 2.4 0.9 0.2 11.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 5.0 5.0 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.5 5.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.5 5.6 1.7 0.1 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.4 5.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.1 2.7 0.2 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.5 3.1 0.4 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.1 0.6 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.4 1.0 0.1 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.1 0.1 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 4.0 6.4 9.8 13.1 14.7 15.3 13.5 9.7 6.1 2.7 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.4% 0.9    0.8 0.1
16-2 89.5% 2.4    1.8 0.6 0.0
15-3 64.8% 4.0    2.1 1.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 32.0% 3.1    0.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.4% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.8% 11.8 6.0 4.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 75.6% 38.5% 37.2% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.4%
17-1 0.9% 50.6% 32.3% 18.2% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 26.9%
16-2 2.7% 32.1% 26.1% 6.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 1.8 8.1%
15-3 6.1% 25.3% 24.0% 1.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.4 4.6 1.7%
14-4 9.7% 19.4% 19.1% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.0 7.9 0.3%
13-5 13.5% 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 11.7 0.6 1.3 0.1 11.5 0.0%
12-6 15.3% 10.8% 10.8% 11.8 0.4 1.2 0.1 13.6
11-7 14.7% 6.7% 6.7% 12.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 13.7
10-8 13.1% 5.1% 5.1% 12.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 12.5
9-9 9.8% 2.7% 2.7% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 9.5
8-10 6.4% 2.2% 2.2% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.3
7-11 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9
6-12 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
5-13 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 10.6% 10.1% 0.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 3.8 5.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.4 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.7 3.6 10.7 32.1 28.6 17.9 3.6 3.6