George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.6#66
Expected Predictive Rating+12.0#51
Pace63.1#331
Improvement+0.4#160

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#66
First Shot+7.1#24
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#302
Layup/Dunks+0.9#149
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#116
Freethrows+5.2#7
Improvement+1.5#61

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#71
First Shot+2.2#104
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#99
Layups/Dunks+4.1#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#295
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#141
Freethrows-1.3#264
Improvement-1.2#291
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.6% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.9% 26.1% 15.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.5% 13.6% 5.0%
Average Seed 10.2 9.9 10.6
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 88.8% 92.0% 86.5%
Conference Champion 16.5% 20.1% 13.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Four4.2% 6.0% 2.9%
First Round17.8% 23.3% 13.9%
Second Round6.5% 8.9% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 2.1% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Away) - 41.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 2
Quad 24 - 35 - 6
Quad 39 - 214 - 7
Quad 410 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 208 Wofford W 70-46 91%     1 - 0 +18.0 -1.2 +21.0
  Fri, Nov 7 107 Winthrop W 96-90 76%     2 - 0 +7.3 +13.2 -6.5
  Sat, Nov 15 344 New Hampshire W 61-44 97%     3 - 0 +2.6 -13.2 +16.9
  Tue, Nov 18 275 Jacksonville W 79-57 94%     4 - 0 +12.8 +8.8 +5.5
  Mon, Nov 24 194 Ohio W 92-69 85%     5 - 0 +20.6 +20.6 +0.9
  Tue, Nov 25 126 Florida Atlantic W 74-65 72%     6 - 0 +11.7 +13.9 -0.6
  Sat, Nov 29 169 James Madison W 82-66 88%     7 - 0 +12.0 +8.9 +4.0
  Tue, Dec 2 150 Cornell W 99-81 85%     8 - 0 +15.3 +17.6 -2.9
  Sat, Dec 6 70 @Virginia Tech L 72-74 42%    
  Sat, Dec 13 220 Old Dominion W 79-64 92%    
  Sun, Dec 21 319 Loyola Maryland W 82-61 97%    
  Sun, Dec 28 240 Penn W 81-65 93%    
  Wed, Dec 31 229 @La Salle W 73-63 81%    
  Sat, Jan 3 110 Rhode Island W 75-67 76%    
  Wed, Jan 7 211 @Fordham W 71-62 78%    
  Sat, Jan 10 43 Virginia Commonwealth L 70-71 50%    
  Tue, Jan 13 259 @Loyola Chicago W 75-64 85%    
  Mon, Jan 19 62 George Washington W 78-76 58%    
  Sat, Jan 24 110 @Rhode Island W 72-70 56%    
  Wed, Jan 28 137 Davidson W 74-64 81%    
  Sat, Jan 31 111 @St. Bonaventure W 69-67 56%    
  Wed, Feb 4 135 Duquesne W 80-70 81%    
  Sat, Feb 7 184 Saint Joseph's W 77-64 88%    
  Tue, Feb 10 104 @Richmond W 72-71 54%    
  Fri, Feb 13 62 @George Washington L 75-79 37%    
  Wed, Feb 18 67 Dayton W 72-69 61%    
  Wed, Feb 25 184 @Saint Joseph's W 74-67 73%    
  Sat, Feb 28 111 St. Bonaventure W 72-64 76%    
  Tue, Mar 3 43 @Virginia Commonwealth L 68-74 29%    
  Sat, Mar 7 46 Saint Louis W 74-73 51%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.7 5.8 4.0 1.7 0.3 16.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 5.5 5.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 5.4 6.3 1.8 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.9 6.0 1.7 0.1 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.5 1.8 0.1 11.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 4.7 2.2 0.2 9.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.2 2.5 0.3 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.3 0.4 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.1 5.3 8.2 11.6 13.9 14.7 14.6 11.5 8.0 4.3 1.7 0.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.6% 1.7    1.6 0.1
16-2 92.8% 4.0    3.2 0.7 0.0
15-3 72.3% 5.8    3.3 2.1 0.4 0.0
14-4 31.9% 3.7    1.0 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.0% 1.0    0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.5% 16.5 9.7 4.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 92.2% 37.3% 54.9% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.5%
17-1 1.7% 84.0% 34.4% 49.5% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 75.5%
16-2 4.3% 70.3% 32.4% 37.9% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.3 56.1%
15-3 8.0% 50.3% 25.0% 25.4% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.8 0.0 4.0 33.8%
14-4 11.5% 32.7% 20.7% 12.0% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.3 0.2 7.8 15.2%
13-5 14.6% 22.2% 15.9% 6.4% 10.9 0.1 0.5 2.4 0.3 11.4 7.6%
12-6 14.7% 13.3% 11.1% 2.2% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 12.7 2.5%
11-7 13.9% 7.6% 6.6% 1.0% 11.3 0.0 0.7 0.3 12.9 1.0%
10-8 11.6% 5.3% 5.2% 0.1% 11.6 0.3 0.4 10.9 0.2%
9-9 8.2% 3.8% 3.7% 0.1% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.9 0.1%
8-10 5.3% 1.9% 1.9% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.2
7-11 3.1% 1.4% 1.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
6-12 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 1.7
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.9% 12.4% 7.5% 10.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.8 4.0 9.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 80.1 8.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.7 50.0 41.7 8.3