Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +2.6 126
Results Rating +2.0 127
Consistency 0.15 145
Pace 72.7 67
Improvement -4.2 327

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 150 C+ B- C- C- C
Defense C+ 118 C+ B C- C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 158 C 59% 152 +0.7 154
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 197 B+ 45% 26 +1.1 120
Three Pointers 41% 177 D+ 32% 258 -1.0 221
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.2 175 C +0.6 145
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 143
Second Chance C+ 32.3% 114 C+ 1.07 111 B- 0.35 96
Opponents' Steals C- 9.9% 235
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 190
Turnovers C- 17.2% 214
Freethrows C- 0.30 206 C- 71% 244 C- 0.21 218
Total Offense C +0.4 150

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 47% 209 A 6.4% 13
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 267 B+ 2.1% 18
Three Pointers C- 82% 235 B- 0.5% 79
Total D+ 51% 268 A 3.1% 8


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 40 B 54% 66 +1.2 219
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 254 C+ 37% 119 -1.3 85
Three Pointers 38% 275 C 34% 189 -1.6 122
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 298 B- -2.2 94
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 129
Second Chance B 26.5% 53 C+ 0.99 117 B 0.26 52
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.2% 274
Other Turnovers B- 8.1% 83
Turnovers C- 16.3% 202
Freethrows C 0.30 184 C 72% 186 C 0.22 184
Total Defense C+ +2.1 118

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 38% 15 A- 17.3% 24
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 16% 27 C+ 5.4% 124
Three Pointers C 84% 179 B 1.6% 61
Total B 48% 39 A 9.2% 12

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.2 63 17.4 196
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 84 0.17 169
Consistency 0.12 177 0.10 26
Improvement -5.7 357 +1.5 106

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 136 125 110
Results Rating Rank 148 132 114
Conference Record 9 - 9 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 7 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.4 13.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round3% 4% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Wichita St. (Away) - 27.0% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 52 - 8
Quad 37 - 59 - 13
Quad 47 - 216 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 137 Boston College W 83 - 78 OT 66% +2  70% 1 - 0 C+ +3 C -0 B D C+ B- +3 B F B
 Sat, Nov 8 143 College of Charleston W 94 - 77 56% +15  99% 2 - 0 A +18 A+ +24 B A+ A- D -5 C- A+ D-
 Sun, Nov 9 114 @Liberty L 68 - 88 36% -15  0% 2 - 1 D- -14 D -6 F A+ D+ F+ -9 D- C- C
 Thu, Nov 20 127 Pacific W 82 - 59 62% +11  97% 3 - 1 A +23 A +14 A+ D F A +11 B+ A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 156 Loyola Marymount W 76 - 65 59% +7  97% 4 - 1 B +11 B+ +9 A B- F B- +3 B A- D
 Tue, Nov 25 105 George Mason L 65 - 74 44% -11  0% 4 - 2 C- -5 C+ +3 B- D- D+ F+ -9 F B+ F+
 Sun, Nov 30 138 St. Bonaventure L 65 - 70 66% -4  8% 4 - 3 D+ -7 F+ -9 F A- D- B- +2 F+ A+ B-
 Sun, Dec 7 269 @Florida Gulf Coast W 81 - 76 70% -0  43% 5 - 3 C+ +2 B- +5 D- C C- C- -2 D- C+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 321 Albany W 105 - 79 92% +20  96% 6 - 3 B+ +13 B+ +8 A+ D- D+ C+ +2 D A+ D+
 Fri, Dec 19 31 @St. Mary's L 75 - 88 9% -10  3% 6 - 4 C+ +5 C+ +3 C- A+ D- B- +3 B- B+ C+
 Tue, Dec 23 51 Central Florida L 80 - 85 21% +1  48% 6 - 5 B- +6 C +0 C- A+ B- B+ +6 B- B C+
 Wed, Dec 31 334 Texas San Antonio W 110 - 70 94% +27  94% 7 - 5 1 - 0 A+ +25 A +14 A+ B+ D- B+ +7 A- A- B-
 Sun, Jan 4 184 @Tulane L 66 - 69 55% +1  52% 7 - 6 1 - 1 C- -2 D- -8 D- B+ F B+ +6 B D C+
 Wed, Jan 7 123 @UAB W 76 - 71 37% +7  93% 8 - 6 2 - 1 B +11 C +1 F+ B+ C+ A +9 A+ C A
 Sun, Jan 11 119 Memphis W 89 - 78 60% +8  92% 9 - 6 3 - 1 B +11 B +7 B A+ B- B- +2 D A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 15 91 Wichita St. W 85 - 67 48% +15  97% 10 - 6 4 - 1 A +21 A +12 A+ D- C- A +9 A A- B
 Sun, Jan 18 166 @Temple W 79 - 73 50% -2  25% 11 - 6 5 - 1 B +8 D -6 F A C A+ +13 A B- A
 Wed, Jan 21 184 Tulane W 79 - 74 76% +6  94% 12 - 6 6 - 1 C +0 C +0 A- D B C -0 B- D+ B+
 Sun, Jan 25 54 @South Florida L 75 - 89 16% -2  46% 12 - 7 6 - 2 C -1 B- +5 F+ A A+ D -6 A F D+
 Thu, Jan 29 119 @Memphis L 65 - 92 37% -12  2% 12 - 8 6 - 3 F -21 F -11 D- C+ F D- -7 F+ D+ D
 Sun, Feb 1 233 East Carolina L 75 - 76 82% +1  54% 12 - 9 6 - 4 D+ -8 C +1 A- C+ F F+ -9 C- D+ D
 Wed, Feb 4 65 Tulsa L 76 - 78 37% +1  51% 12 - 10 6 - 5 C+ +4 D+ -2 D- A B B+ +6 B+ A+ F+
 Wed, Feb 11 222 @Rice L 73 - 81 62% -7  1% 12 - 11 6 - 6 D -9 D+ -4 F C+ B- D+ -5 D- B+ F
 Sun, Feb 15 54 South Florida L 81 - 83 OT 32% +0  49% 12 - 12 6 - 7 B- +5 C+ +2 B- B- A+ B- +3 B B+ D
 Wed, Feb 18 334 @Texas San Antonio W 60 - 52 85% +3  64% 13 - 12 7 - 7 C -1 F -18 F F C+ A+ +17 A+ C- C+
 Sun, Feb 22 134 @North Texas L 72 - 73 42% -1  35% 13 - 13 7 - 8 C+ +4 B+ +9 A- F A+ D -6 D A+ D-
 Thu, Feb 26 166 Temple W 77 - 73 72% +0  55% 14 - 13 8 - 8 C +0 B- +5 A- D+ F+ D+ -4 F+ B C-
 Sun, Mar 1 169 Charlotte W 77 - 76 OT 72% -5  18% 15 - 13 9 - 8 C- -3 D -6 F C+ A- B- +3 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Mar 7 91 @Wichita St. L 70 - 77 27%
Totals 15 - 14 9 - 9 +3 C +0 C+ C C C+ +2 D+ C- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C B+ D+ C 39% 36% 41% C C+ C+ C+ B- C- C- C- C- C+ B C+ C B- 44% 18% 38% D C+ B C+ B C- C C C
1.09 59% 45% 32% +1 0 1.04 32% 1.1 .35 17% .30 71% .21 1.06 54% 37% 34% -2 +1 0.99 26% 1.0 .26 16% .30 72% .22
Nov
3		 Boston College C F F A+ C+ 54% 11% 34% A+ B F+ C D C+ A F C B- A+ A+ D- A 47% 9% 44% F B D+ F F B F A+ C
1.04 45% 14% 48% -3 +2 1.02 19% 0.9 .17 15% .37 52% .19 0.97 42% 0% 38% -9 +2 0.89 33% 1.4 .44 17% .36 50% .18
Nov
8		 College of Charleston A+ B- A+ D B 35% 15% 50% B+ B A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A- A+ D B B D- C 43% 20% 37% D C- F A+ A+ D- D- F F
1.39 63% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.07 46% 1.3 .62 10% .36 77% .28 1.14 55% 30% 37% -2 0 1.00 36% 0.5 .19 13% .41 88% .36
Nov
9		 Liberty D F+ C F F 48% 22% 30% B- F B- A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F+ F A+ F F+ 45% 7% 47% C+ D- C- C- C- C B F C-
1.00 45% 40% 14% -15 +1 0.74 34% 1.6 .54 19% .44 88% .38 1.30 72% 0% 46% +12 +2 1.31 19% 1.0 .19 13% .22 85% .19
Nov
20		 Pacific A A+ A+ A+ A+ 25% 25% 50% C A+ B- F D F C- A+ B- A A F A+ B+ 48% 33% 19% B+ B+ B- A+ A+ B+ F C F
1.26 75% 75% 42% +19 -2 1.38 27% 0.7 .19 20% .31 81% .25 0.91 45% 57% 25% -2 -1 0.95 32% 0.6 .19 23% .40 75% .30
Nov
24		 Loyola Marymount B+ B A+ B+ A+ 30% 22% 48% C A A+ F B- F C- A+ B- B- B+ A+ F A- 43% 22% 35% D- B D+ A+ A- D B+ F+ B-
1.18 60% 55% 38% +7 -1 1.14 45% 0.8 .36 20% .27 86% .23 1.01 52% 18% 41% -3 0 0.96 29% 0.6 .18 15% .22 75% .16
Nov
25		 George Mason C+ A+ F D+ B- 38% 23% 40% C+ B- A- F D- D+ C B C+ F+ C+ D F F 40% 28% 33% B F D A+ B+ F+ D C+ D+
1.10 78% 18% 32% +1 0 1.04 34% 0.5 .17 17% .24 75% .18 1.25 59% 42% 57% +13 -1 1.26 34% 0.7 .24 12% .40 71% .29
Nov
30		 St. Bonaventure F+ F A+ F F 37% 15% 48% C+ F B+ B- A- D- C- F D B- B- F F D 56% 14% 30% F F+ A+ C A+ B- F A+ F
1.00 41% 57% 27% -8 +1 0.87 36% 1.1 .41 20% .27 64% .17 1.08 54% 67% 46% +7 +2 1.21 15% 1.0 .15 18% .41 64% .26
Dec
7		 Florida Gulf Coast B- C- F D F+ 44% 17% 40% C+ D- A- F C C- A+ A+ A+ C- D+ F B D+ 47% 14% 39% F D- C+ C+ C+ A D+ F F
1.17 57% 25% 32% -4 +1 0.96 39% 0.9 .33 17% .56 84% .47 1.10 63% 57% 30% +2 +2 1.10 29% 1.0 .29 22% .29 88% .26
Dec
13		 Albany B+ B A+ A+ A+ 37% 13% 50% C+ A+ D D D- D+ C F D- C+ C+ D- F+ D- 40% 23% 37% C+ D A+ D+ A+ D+ F+ A D+
1.29 64% 75% 47% +16 +1 1.37 30% 1.1 .33 16% .31 62% .19 0.97 57% 46% 38% +3 0 1.09 16% 1.0 .16 18% .30 60% .18
Dec
19		 St. Mary's C+ F A+ C- D+ 46% 17% 37% B+ C- C+ A+ A+ D- A+ F A+ B- F A+ A+ B 46% 12% 42% F B- D A+ B+ C+ F B- F
0.98 33% 56% 32% -10 +1 0.85 25% 1.6 .40 18% .40 64% .26 1.15 71% 17% 27% -1 +2 1.04 42% 0.9 .36 17% .52 79% .41
Dec
23		 Central Florida C D B D+ D+ 33% 18% 48% C+ C- C+ A+ A+ B- F C+ F B+ D- F+ A+ B 45% 24% 31% C B- B+ C+ B C+ D A C-
1.05 50% 45% 31% -4 0 0.95 27% 1.6 .44 16% .19 75% .14 1.12 68% 46% 24% +2 0 1.05 32% 1.2 .37 16% .34 68% .23
Dec
31		 Texas San Antonio A A- A+ A+ A+ 38% 9% 53% B A+ C- A+ B+ D- B A B+ B+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 41% 9% 50% F A- A+ B- A- B- F D- F
1.38 68% 60% 52% +20 +2 1.45 34% 1.4 .48 19% .31 80% .25 0.88 35% 20% 29% -15 +2 0.75 21% 0.9 .19 19% .46 77% .35
Jan
4		 Tulane D- D- A+ F D- 28% 26% 46% D- D- A- C B+ F D+ F D- B+ B A+ D+ B+ 39% 19% 43% C B C F D C+ A+ D A
0.95 50% 62% 22% -5 -1 0.90 41% 1.0 .41 26% .29 60% .17 0.99 52% 10% 35% -7 0 0.89 22% 1.4 .30 16% .26 80% .20
Jan
7		 UAB C F A+ F F 34% 13% 53% B- F+ C+ A+ B+ C+ A+ A- A+ A A+ A+ B+ A+ 42% 25% 34% C+ A+ A F C A F C- F
1.03 44% 57% 25% -9 +1 0.85 28% 1.2 .33 16% .39 79% .31 0.96 41% 23% 28% -14 0 0.74 24% 1.3 .31 16% .45 71% .32
Jan
11		 Memphis B A A+ F A- 30% 28% 42% D B B A+ A+ B- F D F B- A D+ F D+ 46% 9% 46% F D A+ F A+ C- B A+ A-
1.14 71% 56% 25% +3 -2 1.05 37% 1.4 .50 19% .25 69% .17 1.00 46% 40% 42% 0 +2 1.07 14% 1.6 .22 18% .25 63% .16
Jan
15		 Wichita St. A A+ A+ C A+ 46% 21% 32% A A+ B+ F D- C- B F+ C+ A A- B A+ A+ 55% 22% 24% D- A C+ A A- B F A+ C
1.21 73% 58% 33% +11 0 1.25 33% 0.5 .17 17% .33 63% .21 0.96 47% 33% 23% -11 +1 0.82 38% 0.8 .31 17% .40 57% .22
Jan
18		 Temple D B F F F 47% 20% 32% B- F D A+ A C B+ F+ B- A+ B+ A+ A A+ 46% 17% 38% F+ A B C- B- A F D F
1.00 64% 17% 16% -10 +1 0.83 24% 1.8 .44 15% .36 67% .24 0.93 50% 25% 28% -9 +1 0.85 26% 1.0 .26 19% .50 78% .39
Jan
21		 Tulane C C- A+ A+ B+ 51% 15% 34% B+ A- F A+ D B A+ F A- C A B- D B- 45% 26% 30% B- B- B- F D+ B+ F F F
1.11 54% 57% 44% +6 +2 1.17 20% 1.3 .27 15% .48 59% .28 1.04 48% 33% 36% -5 0 0.91 19% 1.5 .29 18% .46 85% .39
Jan
25		 South Florida B- B- C+ F D 22% 43% 35% F F+ B+ A+ A A+ C B C+ D C A+ A+ A+ 55% 8% 37% D+ A F F F D+ F B F
1.06 58% 39% 21% -6 -4 0.81 35% 1.2 .42 14% .31 74% .23 1.26 56% 25% 17% -12 +3 0.84 51% 1.4 .71 14% .51 71% .36
Jan
29		 Memphis F F B+ D F+ 37% 16% 47% B D- A- D- C+ F A+ D A+ D- C F D+ F 46% 31% 24% C+ F+ C D D+ D C F D-
0.84 38% 43% 30% -10 0 0.84 41% 0.8 .31 31% .73 69% .50 1.18 59% 50% 36% +5 -1 1.10 36% 1.3 .45 17% .29 89% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 East Carolina C B B+ A- A- 40% 19% 42% B- A- A- F+ C+ F F+ A- D F+ A- C+ F C 52% 22% 26% F C- D+ D+ D+ D D D+ D
1.12 63% 44% 40% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.0 .38 24% .20 80% .16 1.13 46% 36% 38% -5 +1 0.94 35% 1.1 .38 15% .39 73% .28
Feb
4		 Tulsa D+ B+ D- F F+ 36% 17% 47% C+ D- A B- A B D+ F D- B+ C- A+ B- B+ 42% 15% 44% B B+ A+ B+ A+ F+ B- A- B+
1.05 67% 30% 22% -7 0 0.90 35% 1.2 .43 14% .24 60% .14 1.08 61% 25% 33% -1 +1 1.02 19% 1.1 .22 11% .30 74% .22
Feb
11		 Rice D+ D+ B F F 26% 44% 30% F F B- C- C+ B- A D+ A- D+ F C- B+ D 31% 22% 47% D- D- A+ F B+ F C- A+ B-
1.05 57% 42% 19% -5 -4 0.83 36% 1.0 .36 14% .42 72% .30 1.16 78% 38% 30% +3 -1 1.07 22% 1.1 .24 7% .31 60% .19
Feb
15		 South Florida C+ A- C- C- B- 33% 28% 39% D+ B- D A+ B- A+ F C F B- A+ A+ F A- 64% 2% 34% F B A D+ B+ D A+ A+ A+
1.06 65% 35% 33% +1 -1 1.02 24% 1.3 .32 13% .20 69% .14 1.08 38% 0% 43% -9 +4 0.93 30% 1.2 .37 13% .26 65% .17
Feb
18		 Texas San Antonio F D+ C- F F 36% 28% 36% F+ F F F F C+ B F+ C+ A+ A- B+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 42% B A+ C- C+ C- C+ B A+ A
0.89 56% 36% 22% -8 -1 0.84 26% 0.5 .14 15% .31 67% .21 0.77 44% 31% 14% -19 -1 0.62 32% 0.9 .30 18% .22 50% .11
Feb
22		 North Texas B+ A+ F A+ A+ 33% 33% 33% F+ A- F F F A+ F F+ F D C F C+ D- 46% 20% 35% C+ D D+ A+ A+ D- F D- F
1.12 72% 22% 50% +7 -2 1.13 18% 0.3 .06 9% .24 64% .15 1.14 57% 44% 31% -1 +1 1.02 36% 0.5 .19 14% .53 76% .40
Feb
26		 Temple B- D A+ A+ A- 48% 19% 33% B- A- B+ F D+ F+ B F+ C+ D+ D+ D F+ F+ 44% 19% 38% D F+ A+ F B C- B D+ B-
1.20 52% 67% 44% +7 +1 1.19 35% 0.7 .26 19% .35 67% .23 1.14 62% 44% 39% +6 +1 1.15 19% 1.2 .22 12% .32 78% .25
Mar
1		 Charlotte D A F F F 38% 22% 40% C F C B+ C+ A- B D- C+ B- B F A+ A+ 39% 11% 50% D+ A+ A+ F C+ F B- F D+
1.06 71% 8% 23% -8 0 0.85 29% 1.3 .37 11% .36 65% .23 1.05 55% 50% 25% -7 +1 0.91 22% 1.4 .30 14% .30 84% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 13.5 13.5 4th
5th 9.3 12.8 22.2 5th
6th 35.1 0.7 35.8 6th
7th 25.7 25.7 7th
8th 2.8 2.8 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 73.0 27.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 27.0% 3.8% 3.8% 12.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 26.0
9-9 73.0% 2.1% 2.1% 13.1 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 71.5
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 12.8 97.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 12.4 1.5 56.3 40.8 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.4%
Lose Out 30.1%