Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#106
Expected Predictive Rating+2.9#128
Pace73.1#62
Improvement-2.8#306

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#60
First Shot+5.1#52
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#202
Layup/Dunks+2.7#89
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#217
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#94
Freethrows+0.6#139
Improvement-0.5#212

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#196
First Shot-0.4#192
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#216
Layups/Dunks+4.8#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#279
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#341
Freethrows+0.8#122
Improvement-2.3#294
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 6.9% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 79.0% 86.1% 61.9%
.500 or above in Conference 84.5% 90.8% 69.5%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round6.1% 6.9% 4.1%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Away) - 70.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 52 - 8
Quad 36 - 58 - 14
Quad 49 - 117 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 210   Indiana St. W 97-64 74%     1 - 0 +30.4 +6.5 +18.8
  Nov 12, 2024 62   @ Central Florida L 94-100 24%     1 - 1 +5.4 +14.3 -8.1
  Nov 15, 2024 131   @ College of Charleston L 116-119 2OT 50%     1 - 2 +1.2 +15.9 -14.0
  Nov 16, 2024 90   Liberty W 77-74 OT 42%     2 - 2 +9.2 +5.4 +3.6
  Nov 21, 2024 102   Oklahoma St. W 86-78 48%     3 - 2 +12.6 +2.2 +9.1
  Nov 22, 2024 73   Drake L 63-75 37%     3 - 3 -4.4 -2.2 -3.0
  Nov 24, 2024 147   Seton Hall L 61-63 62%     3 - 4 -1.0 -5.2 +4.1
  Nov 30, 2024 164   Florida Gulf Coast L 78-80 73%     3 - 5 -4.3 +10.3 -14.8
  Dec 04, 2024 243   @ Florida International W 88-77 74%     4 - 5 +8.6 +13.6 -5.4
  Dec 10, 2024 179   Jacksonville W 85-63 77%     5 - 5 +18.6 +6.7 +10.3
  Dec 14, 2024 184   Texas St. W 89-80 78%     6 - 5 +5.2 +12.1 -6.9
  Dec 21, 2024 15   @ Michigan St. L 69-86 9%     6 - 6 +2.4 +2.7 +0.6
  Jan 02, 2025 41   Memphis L 62-90 32%     6 - 7 0 - 1 -18.8 -8.0 -9.6
  Jan 05, 2025 150   @ East Carolina W 78-76 53%     7 - 7 1 - 1 +5.3 +3.0 +2.2
  Jan 08, 2025 221   @ Charlotte W 75-64 69%     8 - 7 2 - 1 +10.2 +4.3 +6.3
  Jan 12, 2025 96   UAB L 76-81 57%     8 - 8 2 - 2 -2.6 +1.2 -3.8
  Jan 15, 2025 141   @ Tulane L 65-80 52%     8 - 9 2 - 3 -11.3 -4.2 -7.3
  Jan 19, 2025 192   Rice W 75-73 78%     9 - 9 3 - 3 -2.0 +7.3 -9.1
  Jan 26, 2025 70   @ North Texas L 64-77 28%     9 - 10 3 - 4 -2.7 +9.1 -13.9
  Jan 29, 2025 202   Texas San Antonio W 94-74 80%     10 - 10 4 - 4 +15.5 +22.9 -6.1
  Feb 02, 2025 177   South Florida W 94-72 76%     11 - 10 5 - 4 +18.7 +17.9 +0.3
  Feb 08, 2025 238   @ Tulsa W 79-73 71%    
  Feb 10, 2025 221   Charlotte W 80-70 85%    
  Feb 16, 2025 125   @ Temple L 81-82 46%    
  Feb 20, 2025 134   Wichita St. W 82-77 69%    
  Feb 23, 2025 41   @ Memphis L 76-86 16%    
  Feb 27, 2025 70   North Texas L 67-68 48%    
  Mar 02, 2025 177   @ South Florida W 79-76 57%    
  Mar 06, 2025 96   @ UAB L 82-85 37%    
  Mar 09, 2025 150   East Carolina W 79-73 73%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 2.3 0.1 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.1 5.9 1.2 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.3 5.0 11.1 3.9 0.1 20.4 4th
5th 0.1 3.6 11.7 6.4 0.6 0.0 22.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 10.4 8.1 0.9 0.0 21.2 6th
7th 0.6 5.5 5.8 0.8 0.0 12.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.8 2.9 0.6 5.3 8th
9th 0.4 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.9 3.9 10.6 20.7 25.7 21.9 12.2 3.7 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 55.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 3.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.3% 14.7% 14.7% 11.0 0.1 0.3
13-5 3.7% 18.2% 18.2% 11.8 0.2 0.5 0.0 3.0
12-6 12.2% 11.8% 11.8% 12.2 0.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 10.7
11-7 21.9% 6.6% 6.6% 12.4 0.0 0.8 0.6 0.0 20.5
10-8 25.7% 5.4% 5.4% 12.6 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 24.3
9-9 20.7% 3.2% 3.2% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 20.0
8-10 10.6% 3.0% 3.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.3
7-11 3.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.2 0.1 0.0 3.8
6-12 0.9% 0.9
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 12.5 0.3 3.0 2.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 93.9 0.0%