Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#89
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#113
Pace77.3#21
Improvement-1.2#254

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#46
First Shot+6.2#37
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#210
Layup/Dunks+3.0#76
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#205
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#87
Freethrows+0.7#127
Improvement-0.4#200

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#151
First Shot-0.3#180
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#106
Layups/Dunks+5.3#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#267
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#345
Freethrows+0.6#141
Improvement-0.9#259
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.9% 17.8% 11.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.6 11.4 11.9
.500 or above 88.3% 94.8% 84.0%
.500 or above in Conference 90.2% 96.1% 86.4%
Conference Champion 14.4% 26.9% 6.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round13.8% 17.6% 11.3%
Second Round3.4% 4.7% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.1% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Home) - 39.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 44 - 7
Quad 38 - 412 - 12
Quad 47 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 160   Indiana St. W 97-64 73%     1 - 0 +33.0 +6.0 +21.9
  Nov 12, 2024 80   @ Central Florida L 94-100 35%     1 - 1 +4.2 +15.5 -10.6
  Nov 15, 2024 117   @ College of Charleston L 116-119 2OT 52%     1 - 2 +2.9 +18.0 -14.4
  Nov 16, 2024 72   Liberty W 77-74 OT 44%     2 - 2 +10.8 +6.1 +4.5
  Nov 21, 2024 96   Oklahoma St. W 86-78 54%     3 - 2 +13.2 +1.5 +10.4
  Nov 22, 2024 67   Drake L 63-75 43%     3 - 3 -4.0 -0.8 -3.9
  Nov 24, 2024 116   Seton Hall L 61-63 63%     3 - 4 +0.9 -1.4 +2.1
  Nov 30, 2024 161   Florida Gulf Coast L 78-80 82%     3 - 5 -5.2 +10.5 -15.8
  Dec 04, 2024 259   @ Florida International W 88-77 79%     4 - 5 +8.7 +12.9 -4.6
  Dec 10, 2024 210   Jacksonville W 85-63 86%     5 - 5 +16.5 +5.8 +9.1
  Dec 14, 2024 140   Texas St. W 89-80 78%     6 - 5 +7.0 +14.3 -7.2
  Dec 21, 2024 15   @ Michigan St. L 69-86 13%     6 - 6 +1.8 +2.5 +0.3
  Jan 02, 2025 37   Memphis L 83-86 40%    
  Jan 05, 2025 182   @ East Carolina W 78-74 66%    
  Jan 08, 2025 192   @ Charlotte W 80-75 68%    
  Jan 12, 2025 125   UAB W 89-82 75%    
  Jan 15, 2025 202   @ Tulane W 82-77 68%    
  Jan 19, 2025 188   Rice W 81-70 84%    
  Jan 26, 2025 83   @ North Texas L 68-71 37%    
  Jan 29, 2025 235   Texas San Antonio W 91-78 89%    
  Feb 02, 2025 171   South Florida W 85-75 82%    
  Feb 08, 2025 246   @ Tulsa W 84-76 77%    
  Feb 10, 2025 192   Charlotte W 83-72 84%    
  Feb 16, 2025 123   @ Temple W 81-80 54%    
  Feb 20, 2025 102   Wichita St. W 84-79 66%    
  Feb 23, 2025 37   @ Memphis L 80-89 21%    
  Feb 27, 2025 83   North Texas W 71-68 59%    
  Mar 02, 2025 171   @ South Florida W 82-78 64%    
  Mar 06, 2025 125   @ UAB W 86-85 55%    
  Mar 09, 2025 182   East Carolina W 81-71 83%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 4.7 3.4 1.2 0.3 14.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.0 7.9 7.2 2.5 0.3 22.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.8 8.2 5.4 1.2 0.1 20.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.5 6.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 4.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.6 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.5 4.8 8.6 11.8 14.8 15.7 14.9 12.0 7.2 3.7 1.2 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.1 0.1
16-2 91.0% 3.4    2.8 0.6 0.0
15-3 64.2% 4.7    2.5 1.9 0.3
14-4 30.0% 3.6    1.3 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.0
13-5 7.6% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.4% 14.4 8.2 4.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 62.3% 42.6% 19.8% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 34.4%
17-1 1.2% 43.1% 32.4% 10.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.7 15.8%
16-2 3.7% 33.8% 31.1% 2.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.2 2.4 3.9%
15-3 7.2% 26.5% 26.0% 0.5% 11.3 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.0 5.3 0.7%
14-4 12.0% 22.6% 22.6% 11.5 0.0 1.3 1.4 0.0 9.3
13-5 14.9% 16.3% 16.3% 11.7 0.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 12.5
12-6 15.7% 13.9% 13.9% 0.1% 12.0 0.3 1.6 0.3 13.5 0.1%
11-7 14.8% 8.8% 8.8% 12.1 0.1 1.1 0.2 13.5
10-8 11.8% 6.2% 6.2% 12.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 11.1
9-9 8.6% 5.1% 5.1% 12.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.2
8-10 4.8% 3.2% 3.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.7
7-11 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
6-12 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 13.9% 13.6% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 4.7 7.2 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 86.1 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.6 5.8 21.7 21.7 23.2 17.4 5.8 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 47.1% 9.7 23.5 14.7 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 50.0% 9.7 16.7 33.3