Florida Atlantic
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +3.2 114
Expected Predictive Rating +2.6 120
Pace 74.1 49
Improvement -3.4 318

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #133 C+ B C- C C+
Defense C+ #122 C+ B C C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 152 58% 175 +0.5 159
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 216 50% 8 +1.4 100
Three Pointers 42% 159 32% 246 -0.6 200
1st FG Attempt 1.05 131 +1.3 134
Second Chance 33.9% 87 1.11 70 0.38 61
Turnovers 18.0% 252
Freethrows 0.31 178 71% 219 0.22 176
Total Offense +1.4 133

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 36 54% 76 -1.5 234
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 245 35% 64 +1.5 76
Three Pointers 37% 289 35% 228 +1.4 127
1st FG Attempt 0.99 134 +1.3 134
Second Chance 26.9% 63 0.99 119 0.27 63
Turnovers 16.7% 192
Freethrows 0.31 204 73% 208 0.23 208
Total Defense +1.7 122

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.3 151 +0.7 297
Shot Type Accuracy +1.1 131 -1.9 101
Possession Length 15.8 43 17.4 201
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 80 0.17 190
Improvement -4.9 #357 +1.4 #107

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 6% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.4 12.9
.500 or above 83% 95% 75%
.500 or above in Conference 81% 94% 72%
Conference Champion 0% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round5% 6% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: South Florida (Home) - 40.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 62 - 9
Quad 38 - 410 - 12
Quad 46 - 217 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 129 Boston College W 83 - 78 OT 66% +2  70% 1 - 0 C+ +4 C +1 B+ D C+ B- +2 B F B
 Sat, Nov 8 156 College of Charleston W 94 - 77 63% +15  99% 2 - 0 A- +17 A+ +23 B A+ B+ D+ -5 C A D-
 Sun, Nov 9 95 @Liberty L 68 - 88 31% -15  0% 2 - 1 D- -12 D -4 F A+ D+ D- -8 D- C C
 Thu, Nov 20 115 Pacific W 82 - 59 62% +11  97% 3 - 1 A+ +23 A +13 A+ D F A +11 B+ A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 151 Loyola Marymount W 76 - 65 60% +7  97% 4 - 1 B+ +11 A- +9 A+ B- F+ B- +3 B A- D-
 Tue, Nov 25 89 George Mason L 65 - 74 40% -11  0% 4 - 2 C- -3 B- +4 B D C- F+ -9 F B+ F
 Sun, Nov 30 134 St. Bonaventure L 65 - 70 67% -4  8% 4 - 3 D+ -6 F+ -8 F A- D C+ +2 F+ A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 7 243 @Florida Gulf Coast W 81 - 76 68% -0  43% 5 - 3 C+ +3 B- +5 D C+ C- C -2 D C+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 325 Albany W 105 - 79 93% +20  96% 6 - 3 B+ +13 B+ +8 A+ D- D+ C+ +1 D- A D+
 Fri, Dec 19 40 @St. Mary's L 75 - 88 12% -10  3% 6 - 4 C+ +3 C+ +2 C- A+ D- C+ +2 B- B- C+
 Tue, Dec 23 52 Central Florida L 80 - 85 24% +1  48% 6 - 5 B- +6 C +1 D+ A+ B- B +5 C+ A- C+
 Wed, Dec 31 350 Texas San Antonio W 110 - 70 95% +27  94% 7 - 5 1 - 0 A+ +24 A +13 A+ B D- B+ +6 A- B+ C+
 Sun, Jan 4 174 @Tulane L 66 - 69 54% +1  52% 7 - 6 1 - 1 C -1 F+ -8 D- B F B+ +7 B+ D C+
 Wed, Jan 7 118 @UAB W 76 - 71 39% +7  93% 8 - 6 2 - 1 B +11 C +0 F+ B+ C+ A +11 A+ B- A-
 Sun, Jan 11 86 Memphis W 89 - 78 49% +8  92% 9 - 6 3 - 1 A- +14 A- +10 A- A+ B- B- +3 D+ A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 96 Wichita St. W 85 - 67 53% +15  97% 10 - 6 4 - 1 A +20 A +12 A+ D- C A- +8 A A- B
 Sun, Jan 18 148 @Temple W 79 - 73 48% -2  25% 11 - 6 5 - 1 B +10 D -5 F A C A+ +14 A C+ A
 Wed, Jan 21 174 Tulane W 79 - 74 75% +6  94% 12 - 6 6 - 1 C +1 C +0 A- D B C+ +1 B D+ B+
 Sun, Jan 25 62 @South Florida L 75 - 89 21% -2  46% 12 - 7 6 - 2 C- -2 B- +4 F+ A A D -6 A F D+
 Thu, Jan 29 86 @Memphis L 65 - 92 28% -12  2% 12 - 8 6 - 3 F -18 F+ -8 D C+ F D -7 D- D+ D-
 Sun, Feb 1 252 East Carolina L 75 - 76 85% +1  54% 12 - 9 6 - 4 D -9 C +0 B+ C+ F F+ -9 D+ D D
 Wed, Feb 4 70 Tulsa L 76 - 78 43% +1  51% 12 - 10 6 - 5 C+ +3 D+ -3 D- A B B +6 B+ A+ F+
 Wed, Feb 11 220 @Rice L 73 - 81 62% -7  1% 12 - 11 6 - 6 D -8 D+ -4 F C+ B- D+ -4 D- A- F
 Sun, Feb 15 62 South Florida L 81 - 84 40%
 Wed, Feb 18 350 @Texas San Antonio W 85 - 72 89%
 Sun, Feb 22 144 @North Texas L 68 - 69 46%
 Wed, Feb 25 148 Temple W 79 - 74 70%
 Sun, Mar 1 168 Charlotte W 78 - 71 74%
 Sat, Mar 7 96 @Wichita St. L 72 - 77 32%
Totals 16 - 13 10 - 8 +3 C+ +1 C+ B C- C+ +2 C+ B C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C A C- C+ 39% 19% 42% C+ C+ B- B- B C- C C- C C+ B- B C- B- 44% 18% 37% D C+ B C+ B C C C C
1.11 58% 50% 32% +1 0 1.05 34% 1.1 .38 18% .31 71% .22 1.06 54% 35% 35% -2 +1 0.99 27% 1.0 .27 17% .31 73% .22
Nov
3		 Boston College C F+ F A+ B- 54% 11% 34% A+ B+ F+ C- D C+ A F C+ B- A+ A+ F+ A 47% 9% 44% F B D+ F F B F+ A+ C+
1.04 45% 14% 48% -2 +2 1.02 19% 0.9 .17 15% .37 52% .19 0.97 42% 0% 38% -9 +2 0.89 33% 1.4 .44 17% .36 50% .18
Nov
8		 College of Charleston A+ B- A+ D B- 35% 15% 50% B+ B A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A A+ D+ B A- F+ C 43% 20% 37% D C F A+ A D- D- F F
1.39 63% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.07 46% 1.3 .62 10% .36 77% .28 1.14 55% 30% 37% -1 0 1.00 36% 0.5 .19 13% .41 88% .36
Nov
9		 Liberty D F+ C F F 48% 22% 30% B- F B- A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D- F A+ F F+ 45% 7% 47% C+ D- C C C C B- F C-
1.00 45% 40% 14% -15 +1 0.74 34% 1.6 .54 19% .44 88% .38 1.30 72% 0% 46% +12 +2 1.31 19% 1.0 .19 13% .22 85% .19
Nov
20		 Pacific A A+ A+ A+ A+ 25% 25% 50% C A+ C+ F D F D+ A+ C+ A A F A+ B+ 48% 33% 19% B+ B+ B- A+ A+ B+ F C+ F
1.26 75% 75% 42% +19 -2 1.38 27% 0.7 .19 20% .31 81% .25 0.91 45% 57% 25% -2 -1 0.95 32% 0.6 .19 23% .40 75% .30
Nov
24		 Loyola Marymount A- B A+ B+ A+ 30% 22% 48% C A+ A+ F B- F+ C- A+ C+ B- B+ A+ F B+ 43% 22% 35% D- B C- A+ A- D- B F C+
1.18 60% 55% 38% +7 -1 1.14 45% 0.8 .36 20% .27 86% .23 1.01 52% 18% 41% -3 0 0.96 29% 0.6 .18 15% .22 75% .16
Nov
25		 George Mason B- A+ F D+ B 38% 23% 40% C+ B A- F D C- C- B C F+ C+ D+ F F 40% 28% 33% B F D+ A+ B+ F C- C C-
1.10 78% 18% 32% +2 0 1.04 34% 0.5 .17 17% .24 75% .18 1.25 59% 42% 57% +13 -1 1.26 34% 0.7 .24 12% .40 71% .29
Nov
30		 St. Bonaventure F+ F A+ F F 37% 15% 48% C+ F B+ B A- D D+ F F+ C+ B- F F D 56% 14% 30% F F+ A+ C- A+ C+ F A+ F+
1.00 41% 57% 27% -8 +1 0.87 36% 1.1 .41 20% .27 64% .17 1.08 54% 67% 46% +7 +2 1.21 15% 1.0 .15 18% .41 64% .26
Dec
7		 Florida Gulf Coast B- C- F D D- 44% 17% 40% B- D A- F+ C+ C- A+ A+ A+ C D+ F B+ C- 47% 14% 39% F D C+ C+ C+ A- D+ F F+
1.17 57% 25% 32% -4 +1 0.96 39% 0.9 .33 17% .56 84% .47 1.10 63% 57% 30% +2 +2 1.10 29% 1.0 .29 22% .29 88% .26
Dec
13		 Albany B+ B A+ A+ A+ 37% 13% 50% C+ A+ D D D- D+ C F D- C+ C+ D- F+ F+ 40% 23% 37% C+ D- A+ D+ A D+ F+ B+ D
1.29 64% 75% 47% +17 +1 1.37 30% 1.1 .33 16% .31 62% .19 0.97 57% 46% 38% +4 0 1.09 16% 1.0 .16 18% .30 60% .18
Dec
19		 St. Mary's C+ F A+ C- D 46% 17% 37% A- C- C+ A+ A+ D- A+ F A+ C+ F A+ A+ B+ 46% 12% 42% F+ B- D A B- C+ F B- F
0.98 33% 56% 32% -10 +1 0.85 25% 1.6 .40 18% .40 64% .26 1.15 71% 17% 27% -1 +2 1.04 42% 0.9 .36 17% .52 79% .41
Dec
23		 Central Florida C D- B+ D+ D+ 33% 18% 48% C D+ B- A+ A+ B- F B- F B D- F+ A+ B- 45% 24% 31% C C+ A- C+ A- C+ D- A C-
1.05 50% 45% 31% -3 0 0.95 27% 1.6 .44 16% .19 75% .14 1.12 68% 46% 24% +2 0 1.05 32% 1.2 .37 16% .34 68% .23
Dec
31		 Texas San Antonio A A- A+ A+ A+ 38% 9% 53% B- A+ D+ A+ B D- B A B+ B+ A+ A+ B A+ 41% 9% 50% F A- A C- B+ C+ F F+ F
1.38 68% 60% 52% +20 +2 1.45 34% 1.4 .48 19% .31 80% .25 0.88 35% 20% 29% -15 +2 0.75 21% 0.9 .19 19% .46 77% .35
Jan
4		 Tulane F+ D- A+ F D- 28% 26% 46% D- D- A- C B F D+ F D- B+ B A+ D+ B+ 39% 19% 43% C- B+ C F D C+ A+ D+ A+
0.95 50% 62% 22% -4 -1 0.90 41% 1.0 .41 26% .29 60% .17 0.99 52% 10% 35% -7 0 0.89 22% 1.4 .30 16% .26 80% .20
Jan
7		 UAB C F A+ F F 34% 13% 53% B- F+ C+ A+ B+ C+ A+ B+ A+ A A+ A+ B+ A+ 42% 25% 34% C A+ A F B- A- F C- F
1.03 44% 57% 25% -9 +1 0.85 28% 1.2 .33 16% .39 79% .31 0.96 41% 23% 28% -14 0 0.74 24% 1.3 .31 16% .45 71% .32
Jan
11		 Memphis A- A A+ F A 30% 28% 42% D A- B A+ A+ B- F+ C- F+ B- A D+ F C- 46% 9% 46% F D+ A+ F A+ D+ B A A-
1.14 71% 56% 25% +3 -2 1.05 37% 1.4 .50 19% .25 69% .17 1.00 46% 40% 42% +1 +2 1.07 14% 1.6 .22 18% .25 63% .16
Jan
15		 Wichita St. A A+ A+ C A+ 46% 21% 32% B+ A+ B F D- C B F+ C+ A- A- B A+ A+ 55% 22% 24% D A C+ A A- B F A+ C-
1.21 73% 58% 33% +11 0 1.25 33% 0.5 .17 17% .33 63% .21 0.96 47% 33% 23% -11 +1 0.82 38% 0.8 .31 17% .40 57% .22
Jan
18		 Temple D B F F F 47% 20% 32% C+ F D A+ A C B+ D- B- A+ B+ A+ A A+ 46% 17% 38% D- A B C- C+ A F C- F
1.00 64% 17% 16% -10 +1 0.83 24% 1.8 .44 15% .36 67% .24 0.93 50% 25% 28% -9 +1 0.85 26% 1.0 .26 19% .50 78% .39
Jan
21		 Tulane C D+ A+ A+ B+ 51% 15% 34% A- A- F A+ D B A+ F A- C+ A B- D B 45% 26% 30% C+ B B- F D+ B+ F F F
1.11 54% 57% 44% +6 +2 1.17 20% 1.3 .27 15% .48 59% .28 1.04 48% 33% 36% -5 0 0.91 19% 1.5 .29 18% .46 85% .39
Jan
25		 South Florida B- C+ C+ F D- 22% 43% 35% F F+ B A A A C- B C+ D C+ A+ A+ A+ 55% 8% 37% D+ A F F F D+ F B- F
1.06 58% 39% 21% -6 -4 0.81 35% 1.2 .42 14% .31 74% .23 1.26 56% 25% 17% -12 +3 0.84 51% 1.4 .71 14% .51 71% .36
Jan
29		 Memphis F+ F A- D+ D- 37% 16% 47% B D A D- C+ F A+ C- A+ D C F D+ F+ 46% 31% 24% B- D- C D D+ D- C F D-
0.84 38% 43% 30% -10 0 0.84 41% 0.8 .31 31% .73 69% .50 1.18 59% 50% 36% +5 -1 1.10 36% 1.3 .45 17% .29 89% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 East Carolina C B B+ A- B+ 40% 19% 42% B- B+ B+ D- C+ F F+ A- D F+ A- C F C- 52% 22% 26% F+ D+ D+ D+ D D D C- D
1.12 63% 44% 40% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.0 .38 24% .20 80% .16 1.13 46% 36% 38% -5 +1 0.94 35% 1.1 .38 15% .39 73% .28
Feb
4		 Tulsa D+ B+ D F D- 36% 17% 47% C D- A- B A B D+ F F+ B D+ A+ B- B+ 42% 15% 44% B B+ A+ B+ A+ F+ B A- B+
1.05 67% 30% 22% -6 0 0.90 35% 1.2 .43 14% .24 60% .14 1.08 61% 25% 33% -1 +1 1.02 19% 1.1 .22 11% .30 74% .22
Feb
11		 Rice D+ D+ B+ F F 26% 44% 30% F F B- C C+ B- A D+ A- D+ F C- B+ D 31% 22% 47% D- D- A+ F A- F C- A B-
1.05 57% 42% 19% -5 -4 0.83 36% 1.0 .36 14% .42 72% .30 1.16 78% 38% 30% +3 -1 1.07 22% 1.1 .24 7% .31 60% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.4 1st
2nd 0.4 1.3 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.9 1.6 6.7 3rd
4th 2.8 8.0 0.1 10.9 4th
5th 0.4 10.6 3.2 14.2 5th
6th 3.9 12.0 0.3 16.2 6th
7th 0.6 13.2 4.8 18.5 7th
8th 0.2 6.8 11.7 0.3 19.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 6.3 1.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 1.2 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.4 3.7 14.9 30.2 30.6 16.8 3.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 10.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.4% 11.5% 11.5% 11.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.0
11-7 16.8% 7.6% 7.6% 12.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 15.5
10-8 30.6% 4.6% 4.6% 12.5 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 29.2
9-9 30.2% 3.8% 3.8% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 29.1
8-10 14.9% 2.1% 2.1% 14.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 14.6
7-11 3.7% 1.9% 1.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 3.6
6-12 0.4% 0.4
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 12.6 95.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.6 43.6 53.8 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%