St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +1.2 138
Results Rating +0.5 148
Consistency 0.12 32
Pace 67.1 219
Improvement -3.3 305

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 89 B- B- C D+ D+
Defense C- 249 D+ C C C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 139 C+ 59% 138 +1.3 126
2 Pt. Jumpers 49% 56 A- 45% 25 +4.0 30
Three Pointers 34% 325 B 37% 49 -2.1 252
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 275 B +3.9 66
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 80
Second Chance B 35.3% 47 C- 0.99 251 B- 0.35 93
Opponents' Steals C 9.5% 190
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 201
Turnovers C 16.9% 189
Freethrows D 0.27 305 B 76% 56 D+ 0.20 245
Total Offense B- +3.7 89

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B+ 59% 35 C+ 10.5% 149
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 34% 60 B 2.5% 26
Three Pointers B- 89% 77 C- 1.0% 239
Total B- 61% 77 C+ 5.2% 136


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 164 C 59% 201 +0.6 204
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 189 C 39% 208 +0.0 187
Three Pointers 41% 186 D- 37% 318 +2.0 281
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 186 D+ +2.4 277
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 264
Second Chance C+ 28.8% 119 C- 1.06 240 C 0.31 171
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.7% 93
Other Turnovers D 6.3% 305
Turnovers C 17.0% 162
Freethrows B- 0.28 96 F+ 77% 353 C+ 0.21 152
Total Defense C- -2.5 249

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 273 B+ 15.9% 38
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 234 C+ 6.1% 92
Three Pointers D+ 87% 272 C 0.9% 149
Total D+ 60% 277 B+ 7.8% 34

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.0 132 17.9 268
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 36 0.17 188
Consistency 0.11 95 0.12 162
Improvement +1.0 139 -4.3 340

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 162 143 125
Results Rating Rank 189 151 128
Conference Record 4 - 14 5 - 13 6 - 12
Conference Finish 13 12 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.4 14.2
.500 or above 43% 83% 34%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 6% 0% 8%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: George Washington (Away) - 18.9% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 32 - 7
Quad 36 - 78 - 14
Quad 48 - 316 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 113 Bradley W 69 - 63 42% +4  82% 1 - 0 B +9 C- -1 D C- C- A +11 C- A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 338 Canisius W 89 - 70 93% +10  87% 2 - 0 C+ +4 A+ +18 C A+ B F -12 F B- D
 Wed, Nov 12 208 Siena W 75 - 66 74% +3  63% 3 - 0 C+ +4 C+ +4 C A+ D C+ +1 A+ F A
 Sat, Nov 15 217 Youngstown St. W 84 - 80 76% +1  54% 4 - 0 C- -2 B +6 A+ B- F+ F+ -9 C F C-
 Thu, Nov 20 158 Robert Morris W 75 - 61 66% +7  97% 5 - 0 B +11 C- -1 C+ C F A+ +12 A+ B+ A-
 Tue, Nov 25 26 North Carolina L 70 - 85 10% -8  1% 5 - 1 C +0 C- -0 C+ B- B C+ +1 C- D A
 Thu, Nov 27 233 East Carolina W 67 - 58 69% +3  90% 6 - 1 B- +5 F+ -10 F D+ D- A+ +15 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 126 @Florida Atlantic W 70 - 65 34% +4  87% 7 - 1 B +11 C+ +4 A+ F+ D A- +7 A D- B+
 Sat, Dec 6 212 @Buffalo W 77 - 69 54% +7  98% 8 - 1 B- +8 C+ +2 C+ A- F B+ +6 D F+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 252 Colgate W 85 - 77 81% -3  32% 9 - 1 C -0 B- +5 C+ B- D- D -5 B F F
 Sat, Dec 13 221 Ohio L 83 - 88 OT 68% -2  16% 9 - 2 D -9 D+ -2 D+ C- D D -6 F F D+
 Sat, Dec 20 298 Le Moyne W 92 - 81 87% +2  68% 10 - 2 C -0 A+ +15 A A- B F -15 C F F+
 Wed, Dec 31 49 @Virginia Commonwealth L 82 - 89 12% -0  43% 10 - 3 0 - 1 B- +7 A+ +15 A B+ B D- -8 D+ C- F
 Wed, Jan 7 136 Richmond L 80 - 89 60% -7  2% 10 - 4 0 - 2 D -10 C+ +4 D A+ A+ F -14 D F C
 Sat, Jan 10 159 Fordham L 77 - 81 66% -2  26% 10 - 5 0 - 3 D+ -7 B +7 B+ A+ C F -15 F A+ F+
 Wed, Jan 14 116 @Saint Joseph's L 64 - 68 32% -4  21% 10 - 6 0 - 4 C+ +2 C- -1 F+ C C+ B- +2 C- A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 210 @La Salle L 74 - 78 54% -2  19% 10 - 7 0 - 5 C- -4 B+ +9 A+ F C F -13 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 20 279 Loyola Chicago W 84 - 70 84% -3  28% 11 - 7 1 - 5 C+ +4 B +6 D+ D+ A+ C -1 F A+ A-
 Fri, Jan 23 24 Saint Louis L 62 - 97 14% -25  0% 11 - 8 1 - 6 F -22 D- -8 C- D- C F -15 F C- D
 Wed, Jan 28 120 @Duquesne W 87 - 79 32% -2  29% 12 - 8 2 - 6 B+ +14 A+ +15 A+ D+ A+ C -1 D- A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 105 George Mason L 73 - 77 50% +8  96% 12 - 9 2 - 7 C- -3 D+ -3 A+ D F C +0 D- C- A+
 Tue, Feb 3 75 @Dayton L 70 - 72 19% -3  16% 12 - 10 2 - 8 B +9 B+ +9 B+ B- B- C -0 B B- D+
 Sat, Feb 7 159 @Fordham W 70 - 67 43% -0  43% 13 - 10 3 - 8 B- +6 B+ +9 A+ B F C- -2 F+ A B-
 Sat, Feb 14 120 Duquesne L 73 - 78 55% -7  5% 13 - 11 3 - 9 D+ -5 C- -1 C- B D- D+ -4 C+ A F
 Wed, Feb 18 116 Saint Joseph's L 65 - 71 54% -2  29% 13 - 12 3 - 10 D+ -6 D -6 F+ C- C C -0 B- C+ F+
 Sat, Feb 21 136 @Richmond L 94 - 99 37% -0  46% 13 - 13 3 - 11 C -0 A+ +16 A+ D+ A- F -16 F D D+
 Thu, Feb 26 135 Rhode Island W 94 - 76 60% +9  91% 14 - 13 4 - 11 A- +17 A+ +21 A+ A+ A+ D+ -4 D+ C- C-
 Sat, Feb 28 105 @George Mason L 58 - 71 28% -11  0% 14 - 14 4 - 12 D+ -6 D+ -4 D C B D+ -4 F+ B D
 Wed, Mar 4 78 @George Washington L 77 - 86 19%
 Sat, Mar 7 111 Davidson W 72 - 71 52%
Totals 15 - 15 5 - 13 +1 B- +4 F+ B D+ C- -2 B B D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C+ A- B B 40% 49% 34% D+ B- B C- B- C D B D+ C- C C D- D+ 39% 20% 41% C D+ C+ C- C C B- F+ C+
1.14 59% 45% 37% +4 -1 1.09 35% 1.0 .35 17% .27 76% .20 1.12 59% 39% 37% +2 0 1.07 29% 1.1 .31 17% .28 77% .20
Nov
3		 Bradley C- F A- C+ D 30% 30% 40% D+ D A- F C- C- C- B C+ A F F A D+ 33% 25% 41% B- C- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B+ A+
1.04 40% 47% 35% -2 -2 0.94 38% 0.7 .28 20% .32 76% .24 0.95 71% 46% 29% +3 -1 1.06 15% 0.0 .00 14% .23 69% .16
Nov
8		 Canisius A+ C A- C+ C+ 33% 24% 43% D C A+ B- A+ B C+ A- B- F F+ F F F 29% 31% 40% A- F C+ B- B- D D C D
1.39 61% 46% 35% +3 -1 1.07 57% 1.1 .63 13% .32 78% .25 1.10 62% 50% 44% +11 -2 1.20 24% 0.9 .21 17% .32 71% .23
Nov
12		 Siena C+ F A+ B C 51% 32% 17% C- C A+ A+ A+ D C+ D- C- C+ A+ F A A+ 34% 39% 27% A A+ F F F A F C+ F
1.17 46% 60% 38% +2 -1 1.04 43% 1.3 .57 19% .29 67% .19 1.03 27% 53% 25% -9 -3 0.80 45% 1.2 .55 22% .48 75% .36
Nov
15		 Youngstown St. B A- A+ A+ A+ 49% 26% 26% C A+ A- D B- F+ B- D- C F+ D A+ B C+ 40% 8% 52% D- C D+ F F C- D- B+ D+
1.20 70% 50% 50% +15 0 1.32 38% 0.9 .35 21% .36 70% .25 1.14 65% 25% 31% -1 +2 1.04 31% 1.8 .56 19% .32 67% .21
Nov
20		 Robert Morris C- B- F D+ C 56% 10% 33% A C+ A+ F C F D- A- D+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ 47% 14% 39% F A+ B- B B+ A- C F F+
1.09 63% 20% 31% -1 +3 1.06 42% 0.7 .28 20% .31 82% .26 0.89 33% 43% 25% -16 +2 0.73 33% 1.0 .33 22% .24 92% .22
Nov
25		 North Carolina C- F C A+ C 43% 28% 28% B- C+ C+ B+ B- B F+ F F+ C+ C+ B+ F C- 43% 20% 37% C C- C F D A F F F
0.98 42% 35% 41% -5 -1 0.92 27% 1.0 .27 13% .13 63% .08 1.19 60% 33% 47% +7 0 1.17 33% 1.3 .43 18% .46 78% .36
Nov
27		 East Carolina F+ C D+ F D- 23% 38% 40% F F D- B- D+ D- C- A+ B- A+ A+ B C- A+ 40% 27% 33% C A+ B- A+ A+ A+ F F F
0.95 58% 35% 29% -4 -3 0.87 25% 1.2 .31 20% .25 86% .21 0.82 22% 33% 33% -16 -1 0.69 30% 0.6 .19 24% .47 84% .39
Nov
30		 Florida Atlantic C+ C- A+ A+ A+ 56% 14% 30% B+ A+ F C F+ D A+ F B+ A- A+ F A A+ 37% 15% 48% D+ A D D+ D- B+ B- A- B
1.08 54% 67% 46% +7 +2 1.21 15% 1.0 .15 18% .41 64% .26 1.00 41% 57% 27% -8 +1 0.87 36% 1.1 .41 20% .27 64% .17
Dec
6		 Buffalo C+ B+ C- B C+ 36% 18% 47% D+ C+ A+ D- A- F C A+ B B+ F B C D 43% 13% 43% D D B+ F F+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.15 69% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 52% 0.8 .42 25% .28 86% .24 1.03 70% 33% 35% +5 +1 1.15 21% 1.8 .38 25% .22 64% .14
Dec
10		 Colgate B- A+ B F B 38% 33% 29% F+ C+ A+ F B- D- A+ A A+ D D C A+ B 37% 30% 33% B- B F F+ F F D+ A+ B+
1.22 75% 41% 27% +4 -2 1.08 43% 0.8 .35 17% .42 79% .33 1.10 62% 41% 26% -2 -1 0.96 37% 1.1 .41 9% .30 53% .16
Dec
13		 Ohio D+ C- B- F C- 43% 33% 24% F+ D+ B+ F C- D C- A+ B D D+ F C+ F 33% 33% 35% A F B F F D+ A+ F A-
1.08 56% 42% 29% -2 -1 0.97 40% 0.9 .34 18% .30 89% .27 1.14 61% 67% 32% +9 -2 1.16 24% 2.2 .52 14% .20 85% .17
Dec
20		 Le Moyne A+ F+ F A+ A 40% 12% 49% B A B+ B A- B A+ B A+ F C- B C+ C+ 39% 12% 49% D+ C F F F F+ F F F
1.35 47% 20% 52% +7 +1 1.19 38% 1.2 .44 12% .58 77% .45 1.19 60% 33% 32% -1 +1 1.02 31% 1.5 .46 16% .42 79% .33
Dec
31		 Virginia Commonwealth A+ B+ D A+ A+ 49% 34% 17% D- A A- C+ B+ B D+ A+ B D- F A- A+ D+ 48% 13% 40% D+ D+ A+ F C- F F F F
1.21 62% 33% 56% +6 -1 1.11 37% 1.0 .37 15% .26 93% .24 1.31 78% 33% 26% +4 +2 1.15 20% 2.0 .40 10% .46 93% .43
Jan
7		 Richmond C+ F A+ F F+ 41% 17% 41% A- D B- A+ A+ A+ F F F F F C+ C- D 35% 29% 35% C- D F F+ F C F C F
1.15 46% 60% 25% -7 +1 0.90 33% 1.6 .53 10% .21 62% .13 1.28 76% 36% 35% +7 -1 1.13 32% 1.2 .39 14% .50 77% .39
Jan
10		 Fordham B B+ D+ A A- 27% 24% 49% C B+ B A+ A+ C F A+ C- F D- A+ F F 51% 16% 33% F F A- A+ A+ F+ F+ F F
1.16 64% 33% 40% +5 -1 1.10 31% 1.4 .45 17% .18 90% .16 1.22 64% 25% 50% +9 +1 1.22 29% 0.5 .14 14% .31 94% .29
Jan
14		 Saint Joseph's C- F D+ C F+ 39% 33% 28% D+ F+ A F C C+ C B+ C+ B- B- B- C- C 45% 12% 43% D+ C- B A+ A+ B D+ F F
0.97 38% 33% 33% -10 -2 0.80 40% 0.8 .30 15% .21 75% .16 1.03 55% 33% 33% -3 +2 1.00 28% 0.7 .19 20% .30 88% .26
Jan
17		 La Salle B+ B A+ A+ A+ 45% 22% 33% C A+ A- F F C F F F F F B+ F F 33% 33% 33% A F D- F F A+ F F F
1.17 64% 64% 44% +13 0 1.29 38% 0.5 .19 17% .17 56% .10 1.23 85% 31% 54% +16 -2 1.31 39% 1.3 .50 27% .43 100% .43
Jan
20		 Loyola Chicago B C F B+ C- 32% 27% 41% D D+ F+ A- D+ A+ C+ A+ A C D- A+ F F 35% 13% 52% C+ F B- A+ A+ A- B- D- C
1.22 56% 27% 39% -1 -1 0.98 22% 1.3 .27 6% .31 95% .29 1.02 65% 17% 44% +7 +1 1.19 28% 0.2 .06 23% .28 73% .21
Jan
23		 Saint Louis D- C C+ F C 32% 34% 34% F+ C- B- F D- C A F+ B F C A+ F F 46% 2% 52% D+ F B F+ C- D A+ A+ A+
0.88 53% 39% 22% -7 -2 0.83 28% 0.5 .14 16% .40 67% .27 1.38 62% 0% 59% +20 +3 1.48 29% 1.2 .35 14% .15 44% .07
Jan
28		 Duquesne A+ D A+ A+ A+ 43% 29% 29% C- A+ F A+ D+ A+ A A A+ C A+ F F F+ 40% 12% 48% C+ D- C+ A+ A+ D- C- A+ A-
1.24 52% 64% 50% +12 -1 1.24 16% 1.5 .24 11% .42 81% .34 1.13 45% 67% 46% +7 +1 1.18 30% 0.5 .14 14% .37 55% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 George Mason D+ C- A+ A+ A+ 47% 29% 24% C A+ F+ B- D F A+ F A C F F A+ D 50% 12% 38% F D- C- C C- A+ A A- A+
1.04 57% 62% 45% +11 0 1.22 19% 1.0 .19 20% .44 56% .25 1.09 73% 67% 25% +6 +2 1.17 32% 1.0 .32 23% .28 67% .18
Feb
3		 Dayton B+ A+ A+ F A 32% 30% 38% D B+ A- D+ B- B- B- A+ A C F+ A+ B- B 40% 16% 44% B- B C+ B- B- D+ F F F
1.10 87% 50% 22% +6 -2 1.11 37% 0.9 .33 20% .33 82% .28 1.13 71% 0% 32% -3 +1 0.98 27% 1.1 .30 16% .61 85% .52
Feb
7		 Fordham B+ A A+ A+ A+ 30% 48% 23% F A+ A+ F+ B F F B F C- D A- F F 35% 20% 46% C F+ C A+ A B- D+ C- D+
1.13 69% 57% 50% +18 -4 1.30 39% 0.9 .35 27% .16 71% .11 1.08 63% 33% 38% +3 0 1.09 34% 0.6 .22 19% .28 71% .20
Feb
14		 Duquesne C- C+ B F C+ 41% 43% 16% F C- B- B B D- B+ C B+ D+ C A- D+ C 39% 12% 49% B- C+ A+ C+ A F A B A
1.06 60% 43% 25% +1 -3 0.98 31% 1.1 .34 20% .40 73% .29 1.13 59% 29% 36% 0 +1 1.05 21% 1.0 .21 9% .25 69% .17
Feb
18		 Saint Joseph's D F+ F C D- 29% 36% 36% F+ F+ C- C- C- C F A+ F+ C A+ F B+ B+ 42% 7% 51% D- B- C+ C C+ F+ B+ B+ A-
0.94 47% 24% 33% -9 -3 0.80 30% 0.9 .27 16% .10 100% .10 1.02 43% 75% 29% -8 +2 0.91 30% 1.0 .30 13% .21 69% .15
Feb
21		 Richmond A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 21% 36% 43% F A+ C D- D+ A- D B D+ F F F F F 29% 20% 51% D- F B F D D+ F C+ F
1.28 83% 40% 46% +14 -3 1.23 30% 1.0 .30 14% .25 75% .19 1.35 80% 60% 42% +17 -1 1.35 21% 1.5 .32 12% .43 75% .33
Feb
26		 Rhode Island A+ A A+ A- A+ 38% 22% 40% D+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ B- A A- D+ A C+ F D+ 47% 16% 37% D+ D+ A F C- C- A F C+
1.35 68% 55% 40% +11 0 1.24 36% 1.7 .61 14% .38 78% .30 1.09 46% 38% 47% +2 +1 1.08 25% 1.3 .31 19% .28 88% .25
Feb
28		 George Mason D+ F F+ A D 41% 29% 31% C- D A+ F C B F+ F F D+ F A+ F F 28% 19% 53% B- F+ A- C B D A+ A A+
0.98 45% 29% 40% -5 -1 0.90 40% 0.6 .26 14% .18 33% .06 1.20 85% 22% 40% +9 -1 1.19 25% 1.0 .25 14% .21 64% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 2.5 2.5 10th
11th 29.5 7.7 37.2 11th
12th 15.9 18.9 34.8 12th
13th 23.7 1.8 25.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 39.6 50.2 10.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 10.2% 0.2% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 10.2
5-13 50.2% 0.2% 0.2% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.1
4-14 39.6% 0.2% 0.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.5
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 14.1 99.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%
Lose Out 17.0%