St. Bonaventure
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.5 #136
Expected Predictive Rating +1.3 #142
Pace 65.9 #266
Improvement -4.5 #346

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #108 C+ B C+ D+ C-
Defense #213 C- C- C D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #120 1.14 #194 +1.0 #144
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #82 0.82 #91 +2.7 #56
Three Pointers 34% #323 1.11 #62 -2.2 #269
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #135 +1.4 #134
Freethrows 14.4 #320 80% #11 11.5 #253
Second Chance 35.7% #49 1.04 #179 0.37 #74
Turnovers 15.7% #137
Total Offense +2.6 #108

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #169 1.19 #223 -1.0 #214
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #112 0.77 #202 -0.8 #250
Three Pointers 39% #252 1.07 #251 +0.3 #166
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #230 -1.6 #230
Freethrows 17.0 #174 81% #364 13.8 #275
Second Chance 29.8% #144 1.15 #299 0.34 #242
Turnovers 16.9% #156
Total Defense -1.1 #213

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #251 -0.3% #135
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.7% #118 3.4% #244
Possession Length 17.6 #203 17.9 #268
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #64 0.19 #233
Improvement +0.1 #169 -4.6 #356

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.3 12.8
.500 or above 68.1% 87.1% 64.2%
.500 or above in Conference 7.5% 19.5% 5.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.4% 4.4% 16.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Home) - 16.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 33 - 7
Quad 35 - 68 - 13
Quad 49 - 217 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 119 Bradley W 69 - 63 45% +4  1 - 0 +9 +2 D C C +7 D- A+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 344 Canisius W 89 - 70 93% +7  2 - 0 +4 +20 C A+ B- -14 F B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 12 169 Siena W 75 - 66 70% -1  3 - 0 +5 +7 C A+ F -1 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 213 Youngstown St. W 84 - 80 77% -5  4 - 0 -2 +8 A C F -10 C- F C+
 Thu, Nov 20 200 Robert Morris W 75 - 61 75% +4  5 - 0 +8 -1 C C- F +9 A+ B+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 31 North Carolina L 70 - 85 12% -11  5 - 1 -1 +1 C+ C B -2 C- C- A+
 Thu, Nov 27 267 East Carolina W 67 - 58 76% +2  6 - 1 +3 -7 F D F +10 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 95 @Florida Atlantic W 70 - 65 25% +2  7 - 1 +14 +7 A+ F C- +7 A+ C- B+
 Sat, Dec 6 201 @Buffalo W 77 - 69 54% +7  8 - 1 +8 +5 B- A- F +4 D- D- A+
 Wed, Dec 10 199 Colgate W 85 - 77 75% -3  9 - 1 +2 +8 B- B- D- -6 A F F
 Sat, Dec 13 196 Ohio L 83 - 88 OT 65% -3  9 - 2 -7 +1 D- A+ F -8 F F D
 Sat, Dec 20 278 Le Moyne W 92 - 81 85% +1  10 - 2 +1 +17 A B+ A -15 C F D-
 Wed, Dec 31 55 @Virginia Commonwealth L 82 - 89 14% -0  10 - 3 0 - 1 +6 +17 A- A A- -11 D+ C- F
 Wed, Jan 7 120 Richmond L 80 - 89 57% -7  10 - 4 0 - 2 -9 +7 D A+ A+ -16 C- F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 193 Fordham L 77 - 81 74% -2  10 - 5 0 - 3 -9 +7 A- A+ F -17 F A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 159 @Saint Joseph's L 64 - 68 44% -4  10 - 6 0 - 4 -1 -1 F C- C -0 C A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 197 @La Salle L 74 - 78 54% -2  10 - 7 0 - 5 -4 +9 A+ F C- -13 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 20 268 Loyola Chicago W 84 - 70 84% -3  11 - 7 1 - 5 +5 +7 D+ D A+ -2 F A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 23 28 Saint Louis L 73 - 83 17%
 Wed, Jan 28 118 @Duquesne L 76 - 80 34%
 Sat, Jan 31 86 George Mason L 70 - 73 41%
 Tue, Feb 3 73 @Dayton L 67 - 76 20%
 Sat, Feb 7 193 @Fordham W 70 - 69 53%
 Sat, Feb 14 118 Duquesne W 79 - 77 57%
 Wed, Feb 18 159 Saint Joseph's W 74 - 70 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 120 @Richmond L 73 - 77 35%
 Wed, Feb 25 122 Rhode Island W 72 - 70 57%
 Sat, Feb 28 86 @George Mason L 67 - 76 21%
 Wed, Mar 4 72 @George Washington L 75 - 84 19%
 Sat, Mar 7 137 Davidson W 72 - 69 60%
Totals 16 - 14 6 - 12 +2 +3 C+ B C+ -1 C- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.3 2.9 2.0 0.1 5.3 7th
8th 0.1 2.5 4.3 0.7 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 6.1 2.3 0.1 9.7 9th
10th 0.6 6.5 5.7 0.4 13.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 5.1 8.8 1.8 0.0 16.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 5.1 10.2 3.7 0.1 0.0 19.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 4.6 7.9 3.4 0.3 17.1 13th
14th 0.3 1.8 2.5 1.3 0.1 6.0 14th
Total 0.3 2.7 7.7 14.6 19.5 20.7 16.4 10.6 5.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.5% 4.1% 4.1% 12.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 1.7
9-9 5.2% 1.6% 1.6% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.1
8-10 10.6% 1.0% 1.0% 12.3 0.1 0.0 10.5
7-11 16.4% 0.6% 0.6% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 16.3
6-12 20.7% 0.3% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.6
5-13 19.5% 0.2% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.5
4-14 14.6% 0.2% 0.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 14.6
3-15 7.7% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 7.6
2-16 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.7
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 12.6 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%