Le Moyne
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.6 #278
Expected Predictive Rating -6.5 #270
Pace 70.9 #126
Improvement +2.7 #60

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #258 C C- D- C+ C+
Defense #281 C D D+ C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #188 1.18 #150 +0.2 #169
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #244 0.69 #285 -1.9 #277
Three Pointers 45% #112 1.01 #195 +1.7 #125
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #174 +0.0 #176
Freethrows 18.3 #135 72% #217 13.1 #146
Second Chance 27.2% #277 1.07 #143 0.29 #234
Turnovers 18.8% #319
Total Offense -3.0 #258

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #206 1.07 #72 +2.1 #112
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #228 0.57 #7 +2.4 #26
Three Pointers 43% #108 1.17 #344 -4.5 #336
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #183 -0.1 #183
Freethrows 17.7 #206 76% #321 13.5 #243
Second Chance 33.0% #284 1.10 #262 0.36 #288
Turnovers 15.1% #262
Total Defense -3.6 #281

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #134 0.4% #196
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.8% #192 -0.3% #180
Possession Length 16.6 #104 16.6 #70
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #189 0.20 #264
Improvement -3.1 #338 +5.8 #4

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 72.2% 79.6% 52.2%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 99.3% 95.9%
Conference Champion 18.0% 21.5% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wagner (Home) - 73.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 415 - 816 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 81 @Xavier L 69 - 74 7% -4  0 - 1 +5 +3 A+ F F +3 C- A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 129 @Bowling Green L 60 - 83 14% -6  0 - 2 -18 -10 D+ C- F -8 C- A+ F
 Thu, Nov 13 176 @Massachusetts L 80 - 94 21% -11  0 - 3 -12 +2 C- C A- -13 F F C
 Mon, Nov 17 352 Niagara W 74 - 68 81% +4  1 - 3 -10 -3 B- F F -7 F C+ D+
 Sat, Nov 22 274 Fairfield L 83 - 97 60% -12  1 - 4 -23 +3 D- A+ F -26 F F F
 Fri, Nov 28 314 @Lafayette W 76 - 63 49% +1  2 - 4 +7 +2 D A+ F +5 B+ C+ B+
 Sat, Nov 29 202 Monmouth W 83 - 79 35% +1  3 - 4 +1 +13 A+ B- D- -12 A F F
 Sun, Nov 30 296 Ball St. L 85 - 96 54% -0  3 - 5 -19 +12 A+ F A- -31 D F C
 Sat, Dec 6 362 @Binghamton W 78 - 63 72% +10  4 - 5 +2 +4 B D D -1 A- D F
 Tue, Dec 16 38 @Texas L 53 - 95 3% -18  4 - 6 -26 -18 F C- D- -6 C F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 136 @St. Bonaventure L 81 - 92 15% -1  4 - 7 -6 +11 C- A C+ -18 F D- F
 Sun, Dec 28 134 @Boston College L 64 - 72 15% -2  4 - 8 -3 -5 C D- F +2 D+ A+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 358 @St. Francis (PA) W 84 - 58 69% +9  5 - 8 1 - 0 +14 +10 A+ A- F +6 A- A+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 306 @Mercyhurst L 60 - 74 45% -8  5 - 9 1 - 1 -19 -7 F C+ C -13 C- F D-
 Thu, Jan 8 331 New Haven W 73 - 47 75% +16  6 - 9 2 - 1 +12 +7 B C A +10 A B+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 277 Central Connecticut St. L 59 - 69 61% -6  6 - 10 2 - 2 -20 -21 F D- F +2 A+ C B
 Sat, Jan 17 357 @Chicago St. W 72 - 57 67% -0  7 - 10 3 - 2 +4 -5 D C- D+ +9 D+ A+ A-
 Mon, Jan 19 222 LIU Brooklyn W 83 - 77 50% +4  8 - 10 4 - 2 -1 +6 A+ F D -7 A F F
 Fri, Jan 23 326 Wagner W 78 - 71 73%
 Sun, Jan 25 348 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 75 - 72 60%
 Thu, Jan 29 222 @LIU Brooklyn L 73 - 79 29%
 Sat, Jan 31 339 Stonehill W 73 - 65 77%
 Thu, Feb 5 326 @Wagner W 75 - 74 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 358 St. Francis (PA) W 82 - 71 85%
 Thu, Feb 12 306 Mercyhurst W 72 - 67 67%
 Sat, Feb 14 357 Chicago St. W 80 - 69 83%
 Thu, Feb 19 277 @Central Connecticut St. L 73 - 76 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 339 @Stonehill W 70 - 68 56%
 Thu, Feb 26 348 Fairleigh Dickinson W 78 - 69 79%
 Sat, Feb 28 331 @New Haven W 69 - 68 53%
Totals 16 - 14 12 - 6 -7 -3 C C- D- -4 C D D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.6 6.3 3.4 0.6 18.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.9 11.2 9.9 3.3 0.3 30.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.8 11.2 7.7 1.9 0.1 26.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 6.7 3.2 0.4 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.8 2.0 0.2 7.0 5th
6th 0.2 1.8 1.3 0.1 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.8 8.3 14.1 19.7 21.2 17.4 9.7 3.7 0.6 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-1 90.8% 3.4    2.6 0.8 0.0
14-2 65.4% 6.3    3.6 2.4 0.3 0.0
13-3 32.0% 5.6    2.0 2.6 0.9 0.1
12-4 8.8% 1.9    0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-5 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 18.0% 18.0 8.9 6.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.6% 0.6
15-1 3.7% 3.7
14-2 9.7% 9.7
13-3 17.4% 17.4
12-4 21.2% 21.2
11-5 19.7% 19.7
10-6 14.1% 14.1
9-7 8.3% 8.3
8-8 3.8% 3.8
7-9 1.2% 1.2
6-10 0.3% 0.3
5-11 0.1% 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6%