Le Moyne
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.5#355
Expected Predictive Rating-12.8#337
Pace70.2#128
Improvement-4.4#337

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#312
First Shot-3.0#266
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#304
Layup/Dunks+1.8#116
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#270
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#270
Freethrows-0.4#201
Improvement+1.5#104

Defense
Total Defense-8.3#357
First Shot-4.6#318
After Offensive Rebounds-3.7#359
Layups/Dunks-3.5#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#160
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#158
Freethrows-2.4#333
Improvement-5.9#362
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 3.4% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 6.5% 14.4% 2.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 55.7% 31.3% 67.4%
First Four2.0% 3.4% 1.2%
First Round0.6% 1.1% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Away) - 32.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 8
Quad 48 - 139 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 104   @ Syracuse L 82-86 4%     0 - 1 +2.9 +4.8 -1.6
  Nov 06, 2024 127   Cal St. Northridge L 75-97 12%     0 - 2 -22.4 -4.7 -15.5
  Nov 13, 2024 24   @ Connecticut L 49-90 1%     0 - 3 -23.6 -13.3 -15.2
  Nov 16, 2024 95   @ St. Bonaventure L 52-71 3%     0 - 4 -11.2 -12.5 -0.4
  Nov 22, 2024 307   Tennessee Martin W 65-53 31%     1 - 4 +3.6 -14.6 +17.8
  Nov 23, 2024 186   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 61-82 9%     1 - 5 -19.8 -9.7 -10.5
  Nov 25, 2024 264   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 77-97 17%     1 - 6 -23.3 -3.4 -18.5
  Nov 29, 2024 271   @ Manhattan W 81-77 18%     2 - 6 +0.3 -0.4 +0.4
  Dec 03, 2024 297   Army L 100-103 3OT 37%     2 - 7 -12.9 -5.5 -6.6
  Dec 07, 2024 313   Binghamton L 62-72 41%     2 - 8 -21.2 -10.9 -11.3
  Dec 18, 2024 257   @ Dartmouth W 80-76 16%     3 - 8 +1.0 +3.9 -3.0
  Dec 22, 2024 83   @ Notre Dame L 62-91 3%     3 - 9 -19.2 -8.4 -10.6
  Dec 29, 2024 316   @ Niagara L 69-88 26%     3 - 10 -25.6 -9.3 -15.9
  Jan 03, 2025 327   @ LIU Brooklyn L 62-78 29%     3 - 11 0 - 1 -23.7 -4.0 -21.5
  Jan 10, 2025 322   Fairleigh Dickinson L 86-91 2OT 46%     3 - 12 0 - 2 -17.4 -9.6 -6.8
  Jan 12, 2025 353   Mercyhurst W 79-63 58%     4 - 12 1 - 2 +0.4 +7.7 -5.7
  Jan 18, 2025 359   @ Chicago St. L 72-88 43%     4 - 13 1 - 3 -27.7 -5.2 -22.0
  Jan 20, 2025 321   Stonehill W 73-72 45%     5 - 13 2 - 3 -11.2 -2.2 -9.0
  Jan 24, 2025 209   Central Connecticut St. L 70-93 21%     5 - 14 2 - 4 -28.0 +1.3 -30.3
  Jan 30, 2025 322   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 74-78 28%     5 - 15 2 - 5 -11.4 +2.5 -14.1
  Feb 01, 2025 335   @ Wagner L 61-73 33%     5 - 16 2 - 6 -20.8 -5.2 -17.4
  Feb 06, 2025 336   @ St. Francis (PA) L 72-76 32%    
  Feb 08, 2025 353   @ Mercyhurst L 69-72 38%    
  Feb 13, 2025 335   Wagner W 66-65 54%    
  Feb 15, 2025 359   Chicago St. W 74-71 64%    
  Feb 20, 2025 336   St. Francis (PA) W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 327   LIU Brooklyn L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 27, 2025 209   @ Central Connecticut St. L 63-76 10%    
  Mar 01, 2025 321   @ Stonehill L 70-76 27%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 1.3 2.6 0.2 4.0 4th
5th 0.5 5.4 1.1 7.0 5th
6th 0.1 5.6 5.4 0.1 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 3.5 11.9 0.9 16.3 7th
8th 0.1 3.5 14.2 5.3 0.0 23.1 8th
9th 1.8 9.0 16.0 8.6 0.3 35.8 9th
Total 1.8 9.1 19.5 26.3 23.6 13.1 5.3 1.1 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.1% 0.1
9-7 1.1% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.1 1.0
8-8 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.3 5.0
7-9 13.1% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.5 12.6
6-10 23.6% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.8 22.8
5-11 26.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.3 26.1
4-12 19.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.5
3-13 9.1% 9.1
2-14 1.8% 1.8
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 16.0 2.0 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%