Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.8#325
Expected Predictive Rating-7.9#297
Pace65.2#263
Improvement+3.1#64

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#307
First Shot-5.0#310
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#194
Layup/Dunks-4.8#334
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#189
Freethrows-2.9#332
Improvement-2.4#289

Defense
Total Defense-4.7#308
First Shot-4.1#307
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#230
Layups/Dunks-5.1#341
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#78
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#174
Freethrows-0.8#248
Improvement+5.4#9
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 1.6% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 1.6% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 411 - 1311 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 138   @ Rhode Island L 58-96 10%     0 - 1 -33.9 -17.8 -13.3
  Nov 09, 2024 81   @ Georgetown L 57-69 5%     0 - 2 -2.3 -8.3 +5.8
  Nov 12, 2024 353   @ New Hampshire W 62-56 54%     1 - 2 -4.8 -10.4 +5.9
  Nov 19, 2024 183   Drexel L 61-67 29%     1 - 3 -10.1 -6.5 -4.2
  Nov 23, 2024 75   Yale L 66-91 6%     1 - 4 -17.5 +5.3 -26.7
  Nov 24, 2024 213   Vermont W 67-66 26%     2 - 4 -2.0 +2.7 -4.5
  Dec 01, 2024 314   Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-74 58%     3 - 4 -7.9 +1.8 -9.7
  Dec 04, 2024 299   Rider W 78-75 53%     4 - 4 1 - 0 -7.7 +3.6 -11.1
  Dec 08, 2024 259   @ Mount St. Mary's L 94-101 25%     4 - 5 1 - 1 -9.6 +20.0 -29.5
  Dec 18, 2024 197   Central Connecticut St. L 63-64 31%     4 - 6 -5.7 -2.7 -3.1
  Dec 21, 2024 247   @ Monmouth L 74-88 23%     4 - 7 -16.0 -0.5 -15.5
  Dec 28, 2024 291   @ Columbia L 72-85 31%     4 - 8 -17.7 +0.2 -19.0
  Jan 03, 2025 192   @ Merrimack L 54-67 15%     4 - 9 1 - 2 -11.9 -6.7 -7.2
  Jan 10, 2025 255   Iona W 68-64 42%     5 - 9 2 - 2 -3.8 -4.7 +0.9
  Jan 12, 2025 267   @ Marist L 51-61 26%     5 - 10 2 - 3 -13.1 -10.7 -4.2
  Jan 16, 2025 311   Niagara W 70-66 58%     6 - 10 3 - 3 -7.8 -1.9 -5.5
  Jan 18, 2025 356   Canisius L 67-78 77%     6 - 11 3 - 4 -28.4 -10.5 -18.9
  Jan 23, 2025 235   @ Manhattan W 87-84 OT 21%     7 - 11 4 - 4 +1.7 +6.6 -5.1
  Jan 25, 2025 192   Merrimack L 54-75 30%     7 - 12 4 - 5 -25.4 -13.2 -13.8
  Jan 31, 2025 204   @ Quinnipiac L 69-81 17%     7 - 13 4 - 6 -11.7 -3.6 -7.6
  Feb 02, 2025 255   @ Iona L 64-87 24%     7 - 14 4 - 7 -25.3 -3.3 -23.2
  Feb 06, 2025 267   Marist W 59-56 45%     8 - 14 5 - 7 -5.6 -3.9 -1.2
  Feb 08, 2025 266   Sacred Heart L 71-77 45%     8 - 15 5 - 8 -14.5 -7.3 -7.3
  Feb 14, 2025 287   @ St. Peter's L 52-65 30%     8 - 16 5 - 9 -17.5 -15.5 -2.8
  Feb 16, 2025 235   Manhattan L 67-80 38%     8 - 17 5 - 10 -19.8 -7.5 -13.2
  Feb 21, 2025 299   @ Rider W 69-49 33%     9 - 17 6 - 10 +14.8 +1.0 +16.3
  Feb 28, 2025 259   Mount St. Mary's W 69-62 43%     10 - 17 7 - 10 -1.1 +0.1 -0.6
  Mar 02, 2025 266   @ Sacred Heart L 62-83 26%     10 - 18 7 - 11 -24.0 -14.2 -10.0
  Mar 06, 2025 254   @ Siena L 64-68 24%     10 - 19 7 - 12 -6.3 -6.9 +0.5
  Mar 08, 2025 204   Quinnipiac W 83-74 33%     11 - 19 8 - 12 +3.8 +2.2 +0.7
  Mar 11, 2025 266   Sacred Heart L 74-78 35%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 100.0 100.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 100.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.5 99.5
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.6%
Lose Out 66.0%