Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.7 262
Expected Predictive Rating -3.4 222
Pace 67.1 226
Improvement +0.9 148

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #202 D+ C B- D- C-
Defense D+ #308 D+ C- D+ C+ F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 194 51% 330 -2.9 285
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 148 39% 140 +0.9 123
Three Pointers 40% 209 32% 241 -1.5 234
1st FG Attempt 0.95 290 -3.4 284
Second Chance 33.1% 103 0.93 308 0.31 191
Turnovers 15.4% 92
Freethrows 0.25 337 70% 248 0.17 338
Total Offense -1.2 202

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 5 58% 189 -5.4 339
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 336 39% 209 +2.0 36
Three Pointers 37% 283 36% 296 +0.3 167
1st FG Attempt 1.08 285 -3.0 281
Second Chance 31.3% 213 1.04 206 0.33 221
Turnovers 15.1% 295
Freethrows 0.29 145 74% 276 0.21 163
Total Defense -4.4 308

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.2 221 +1.3 359
Shot Type Accuracy -3.3 299 +1.6 241
Possession Length 17.4 185 17.3 190
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 261 0.16 144
Improvement +1.5 #102 -0.7 #228

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 5% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 98% 100% 98%
.500 or above in Conference 79% 96% 72%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round3% 4% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Away) - 31.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 52 - 7
Quad 416 - 718 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 109 @Penn St. L 68 - 76 12% +2  54% 0 - 1 C -1 D -5 F+ F A+ B- +4 B A- F+
 Sat, Nov 8 315 @NJIT W 74 - 53 52% +6  62% 1 - 1 A- +15 D- -7 F B- F A+ +21 A A B+
 Mon, Nov 10 53 @Seton Hall L 59 - 82 5% -10  2% 1 - 2 D -10 D -5 C- D- C- D -6 A- D- F
 Fri, Nov 14 330 Stonehill W 73 - 71 OT 78% +2  70% 2 - 2 D- -12 F -10 F D- A- C- -2 D+ A+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 312 Loyola Maryland W 85 - 82 73% +4  97% 3 - 2 D -9 C+ +2 D- A- A F+ -11 F A C
 Sat, Nov 22 303 @Le Moyne W 97 - 83 48% +12  94% 4 - 2 B +9 A+ +18 A B A F+ -9 C+ F B-
 Wed, Nov 26 200 Columbia L 77 - 106 50% -18  0% 4 - 3 F -35 D+ -3 D C+ C- F -31 F F F
 Sun, Nov 30 327 New Hampshire W 72 - 68 77% +0  58% 5 - 3 D -9 C- -2 C+ C D+ D -7 C- B+ F
 Fri, Dec 5 323 @Manhattan L 66 - 70 56% -4  4% 5 - 4 0 - 1 D- -11 F -18 F F F B+ +7 C A- A
 Sun, Dec 7 182 @Merrimack L 63 - 74 24% -10  0% 5 - 5 0 - 2 D -9 D -4 C F D+ D -6 F A+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 208 Monmouth W 73 - 65 50% +0  35% 6 - 5 C+ +2 B- +5 B- B A C -2 C- B+ D+
 Thu, Dec 18 294 @Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 70 46% +14  82% 7 - 5 B +9 A- +10 A- B- C- C+ +0 A F F
 Mon, Dec 29 228 St. Peter's L 66 - 70 54% +1  51% 7 - 6 0 - 3 D -11 F+ -8 F B- B- C- -3 C A D-
 Fri, Jan 2 346 @Canisius L 81 - 85 64% -4  4% 7 - 7 0 - 4 D- -13 B +7 D- B- A- F -20 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 335 @Niagara W 83 - 75 60% +5  93% 8 - 7 1 - 4 C -0 A+ +18 B- B A+ F -17 F C F+
 Fri, Jan 9 354 Rider W 68 - 62 85% +8  93% 9 - 7 2 - 4 D -11 F+ -8 F A+ A- C- -2 F A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 323 Manhattan W 98 - 62 76% +20  98% 10 - 7 3 - 4 A+ +23 A- +11 A+ D+ B- A +11 A+ B- B
 Sat, Jan 17 163 @Marist L 67 - 82 21% -13  0% 10 - 8 3 - 5 D- -12 C+ +2 F A- A- F -15 F F C+
 Mon, Jan 19 181 @Siena L 77 - 85 24% -8  5% 10 - 9 3 - 6 D+ -6 B+ +8 C A+ B+ F -15 F B B+
 Thu, Jan 22 335 Niagara W 62 - 61 79% +3  75% 11 - 9 4 - 6 D- -13 F -15 F C D- C+ +1 D+ A C-
 Sat, Jan 24 346 Canisius W 61 - 55 82% +7  87% 12 - 9 5 - 6 D -9 F -11 D- D+ F+ B- +3 B- D+ B+
 Fri, Jan 30 247 @Iona W 71 - 70 35% -2  25% 13 - 9 6 - 6 C -1 B- +5 A- D- D+ D+ -5 C- F C
 Sun, Feb 1 195 Quinnipiac L 65 - 72 49% +2  66% 13 - 10 6 - 7 D- -12 F -10 F D+ A+ C- -3 D D B-
 Thu, Feb 5 287 @Sacred Heart W 92 - 87 45% +8  98% 14 - 10 7 - 7 C +1 A- +10 A- B+ C- F+ -10 C- F F
 Sat, Feb 7 163 Marist W 63 - 60 41% +4  85% 15 - 10 8 - 7 C -0 C +0 C+ D A+ C -0 B- D+ C+
 Sun, Feb 15 228 @St. Peter's L 68 - 73 31%
 Fri, Feb 20 287 Sacred Heart W 81 - 76 68%
 Sun, Feb 22 195 @Quinnipiac L 73 - 79 29%
 Fri, Feb 27 181 Siena L 72 - 73 44%
 Sun, Mar 1 289 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 70 68%
Totals 17 - 13 10 - 10 -6 C- -1 D+ C B- D+ -4 D+ C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- C+ C- D+ 38% 22% 40% C- D+ B- D C B- D- D+ D- D+ C C D C- 47% 15% 37% F+ D+ C- C C- D+ C+ D+ C+
1.07 51% 39% 32% -3 0 0.95 33% 0.9 .31 15% .25 70% .17 1.15 58% 39% 36% +2 +1 1.08 31% 1.0 .33 15% .29 74% .18
Nov
3		 Penn St. D B C F F 38% 13% 48% B- F+ C- F F A+ F+ A+ D+ B- C B- B+ B+ 52% 15% 33% D- B A D+ A- F+ F A+ C
0.98 65% 38% 21% -7 +1 0.90 27% 0.8 .20 10% .14 89% .13 1.10 59% 38% 29% -2 +2 1.02 21% 1.3 .27 10% .40 60% .24
Nov
8		 NJIT D- F C+ C F 48% 16% 36% B- F B D+ B- F B+ D- B- A+ B+ A A+ A 27% 20% 54% C- A A+ A A B+ A+ B A+
0.99 33% 38% 33% -12 +1 0.80 39% 1.0 .39 21% .41 67% .27 0.71 47% 27% 23% -14 -1 0.73 16% 0.7 .12 21% .20 67% .14
Nov
10		 Seton Hall D F C A+ C 30% 26% 44% D- C- C F D- C- A A- A+ D A+ F A+ A+ 59% 16% 25% F A- C- F+ D- F F F F
0.86 23% 36% 42% -6 -1 0.88 29% 0.6 .18 25% .45 78% .35 1.20 43% 50% 23% -11 +2 0.84 37% 1.2 .44 10% .45 82% .37
Nov
14		 Stonehill F F F F+ F 34% 20% 46% D+ F F C+ D- A- B+ B+ A- C- B A+ F C- 49% 16% 35% D- D+ A+ B- A+ F A- D+ B
0.94 40% 25% 30% -12 0 0.78 17% 1.1 .19 8% .34 75% .25 0.92 48% 10% 41% -6 +1 0.94 13% 0.8 .10 13% .16 73% .12
Nov
16		 Loyola Maryland C+ D C+ F+ F+ 44% 25% 32% C D- B- A A- A C F D F+ F F B F 49% 13% 38% D F A A- A C C- D- D+
1.19 56% 43% 28% -3 0 0.96 35% 1.4 .50 10% .30 58% .17 1.15 77% 57% 30% +10 +2 1.25 19% 0.8 .15 18% .27 75% .21
Nov
22		 Le Moyne A+ A B A+ A+ 47% 25% 28% C- A A- D+ B A B- A+ A F+ B- A+ F+ B- 49% 11% 40% F+ C+ F F F B- F B+ F
1.37 68% 38% 47% +10 0 1.23 41% 1.0 .41 10% .36 87% .31 1.18 55% 0% 39% -3 +2 1.00 40% 1.6 .66 21% .54 67% .36
Nov
26		 Columbia D+ F B D+ D 38% 24% 38% D+ D A- D- C+ C- D- D D- F D+ A+ F F 63% 2% 35% F F F F F F C+ F D-
1.08 45% 43% 32% -5 0 0.91 37% 0.8 .30 14% .26 69% .18 1.49 62% 0% 53% +12 +4 1.33 46% 1.9 .88 14% .26 94% .25
Nov
30		 New Hampshire C- F A+ A+ C+ 45% 24% 31% C- C+ A- F C D+ D+ F F D B- A B+ C+ 65% 8% 27% F C- F+ A+ B+ F F B+ F+
1.11 41% 50% 47% +1 0 1.04 40% 0.8 .31 17% .32 59% .19 1.05 52% 25% 29% -7 +4 0.94 32% 0.5 .17 11% .38 64% .24
Dec
5		 Manhattan F F+ B F F 25% 28% 47% F F B F F F F A+ F B+ B- F A- B- 52% 12% 36% F C B- A+ A- A F+ C- F+
0.91 50% 44% 26% -6 -2 0.86 43% 0.7 .28 21% .12 86% .10 0.97 50% 50% 28% -6 +2 0.94 24% 0.8 .18 21% .37 81% .30
Dec
7		 Merrimack D D F A- C 38% 23% 38% C- C C F F D+ D F F+ D D+ D F F 40% 16% 44% C+ F A+ A+ A+ D F D F
0.98 50% 27% 39% -3 0 0.96 40% 0.6 .25 20% .31 63% .20 1.15 59% 43% 42% +7 +1 1.16 15% 0.5 .08 14% .49 81% .40
Dec
14		 Monmouth B- F+ C- A+ B- 51% 21% 28% C+ B- A- C- B A F F F C C A- B+ C+ 56% 13% 31% F C- B B+ B+ D+ A+ F+ A+
1.15 48% 36% 53% +3 +1 1.09 42% 0.9 .37 14% .09 20% .02 1.03 57% 29% 29% -4 +2 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 16% .09 80% .07
Dec
18		 Central Connecticut St. A- C+ A A+ A 40% 15% 45% C- A- C B+ B- C- D+ C- D+ C+ A+ B C- A+ 30% 22% 48% D- A D F F F B F C+
1.27 59% 50% 44% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.1 .34 14% .23 77% .17 1.06 31% 33% 35% -8 -1 0.83 30% 1.3 .40 12% .22 85% .19
Dec
29		 St. Peter's F+ F D+ F+ F 48% 12% 40% B+ F D A+ B- B- D- C D- C- D A+ A+ B- 57% 10% 33% F C F A+ A D- A+ F A
0.98 40% 33% 29% -12 +2 0.81 30% 1.4 .41 18% .34 74% .25 1.04 61% 0% 21% -9 +3 0.90 42% 0.6 .23 15% .19 82% .16
Jan
2		 Canisius B D+ F D+ F+ 43% 20% 37% C+ D- A- D+ B- A- A C+ A F A+ A+ F F 34% 16% 50% D F C- F F F F F+ F
1.21 59% 30% 32% -2 0 0.98 40% 0.9 .38 12% .39 74% .29 1.27 35% 25% 52% +4 0 1.10 29% 1.4 .40 9% .44 74% .33
Jan
4		 Niagara A+ C+ A- A- B 44% 25% 31% C- B- A- C B A+ A- A+ A+ F F F F F 59% 4% 37% F F D- A- C F+ A+ F A
1.37 62% 50% 40% +8 0 1.17 41% 1.0 .41 8% .38 90% .34 1.24 67% 50% 42% +10 +4 1.29 27% 0.7 .19 15% .08 100% .08
Jan
9		 Rider F+ F F F F 43% 13% 45% C- F B A+ A+ A- A+ B+ A+ C- D F B F 39% 33% 29% C- F B+ A+ A+ D+ F+ A+ C
1.09 30% 17% 24% -21 +1 0.62 39% 1.4 .52 10% .39 73% .28 0.99 58% 50% 29% +2 -2 1.02 26% 0.3 .08 16% .34 56% .19
Jan
14		 Manhattan A- B+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 41% D A+ D+ C- D+ B- A+ F B+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ 40% 26% 34% C A+ B C B- B F C+ F
1.36 68% 57% 48% +17 -1 1.34 34% 1.1 .38 14% .36 64% .23 0.86 40% 38% 18% -15 -1 0.70 23% 1.0 .23 18% .41 79% .32
Jan
17		 Marist C+ D+ C+ F F 30% 32% 38% D- F B- A A- A- A+ C A+ F F C- F F 27% 38% 36% A+ F F F F C+ F C- F
1.01 53% 38% 16% -12 -2 0.74 33% 1.2 .40 15% .48 70% .34 1.23 75% 41% 44% +11 -3 1.18 37% 1.4 .52 20% .39 81% .32
Jan
19		 Siena B+ A+ D+ F C+ 28% 28% 44% D- C D+ A+ A+ B+ D A+ C F F F F F 35% 35% 30% B F B+ C- B B+ F F F
1.19 86% 36% 27% +3 -2 1.04 28% 1.8 .48 14% .23 85% .20 1.32 94% 56% 50% +26 -2 1.50 25% 1.0 .25 20% .37 84% .31
Jan
22		 Niagara F F A- D- F 41% 20% 39% C+ F C C C D- F F F C+ B- F C- C- 54% 8% 38% F D+ B+ A+ A C- A- D- B
0.95 43% 50% 30% -6 0 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 18% .17 56% .09 0.94 50% 50% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.5 .09 18% .15 75% .11
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Canisius F D B D D- 43% 26% 31% D+ D- A- F D+ F+ C+ F D B- B A+ A+ A 58% 8% 34% F B- F A+ D+ B+ A+ A+ A+
1.00 56% 45% 31% -1 0 1.00 41% 0.7 .27 20% .33 56% .18 0.90 45% 25% 24% -14 +3 0.80 45% 0.7 .30 23% .17 38% .06
Jan
30		 Iona B- B- B A A- 41% 15% 43% C+ A- A+ F D- D+ C F+ C- D+ A- B F C 40% 13% 47% D- C- F D F C F F F
1.14 63% 43% 40% +7 +1 1.17 51% 0.5 .24 18% .27 64% .18 1.12 47% 33% 41% 0 +1 1.04 34% 1.1 .38 18% .33 82% .27
Feb
1		 Quinnipiac F F C- A- F 52% 21% 27% C+ F B F D+ A+ F+ F F C- D F A+ C- 62% 17% 21% F D B- F D B- A+ B A+
0.95 31% 33% 40% -13 +1 0.79 39% 0.8 .30 12% .21 54% .12 1.05 63% 44% 18% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.3 .39 19% .16 67% .11
Feb
5		 Sacred Heart A- B+ A+ A A- 43% 11% 45% B- A- C- A+ B+ C- C- B- C F+ B+ C- D C- 30% 15% 56% C- C- D F F F F A+ F+
1.29 70% 50% 42% +12 +2 1.28 31% 1.4 .45 15% .27 75% .20 1.22 50% 38% 37% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.6 .49 11% .40 68% .27
Feb
7		 Marist C A+ B- F C+ 27% 21% 52% C C+ D D D A+ F A- F+ C A+ F B B+ 48% 17% 35% F B- F A D+ C+ C- F D-
1.03 77% 40% 24% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 13% .24 77% .19 0.98 43% 50% 29% -7 +1 0.90 35% 0.9 .32 20% .26 92% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.3 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.2 1.4 3rd
4th 0.1 3.7 0.8 4.7 4th
5th 0.2 5.2 6.7 0.1 12.2 5th
6th 1.1 17.0 22.8 2.9 43.9 6th
7th 0.0 7.0 13.9 1.6 22.5 7th
8th 0.9 7.8 2.2 0.0 10.9 8th
9th 2.0 1.7 3.7 9th
10th 0.5 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 3.4 17.6 33.3 29.8 13.6 2.4 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 2.4% 8.2% 8.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2
12-8 13.6% 6.9% 6.9% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 12.6
11-9 29.8% 4.4% 4.4% 15.6 0.0 0.5 0.8 28.5
10-10 33.3% 2.9% 2.9% 15.8 0.2 0.8 32.3
9-11 17.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 17.3
8-12 3.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 3.3
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 15.6 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 14.5 15.0 30.0 50.0 5.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 1.7%